Cross-posted at Election Inspection
(Unfortunately, the district pictures won't show, so you want to see where these districts are in the state, you should follow the link to Election Inspection)
Well, after putting it off, I'm ready to offer an initial projection for the entirety of North Carolina's 115 pledged delegates.
I've already projected that Obama will get 45 pledged delegates and Clinton will get 32 at the CD level, so let's take a look at how it goes down, plus I'll take a look at the state-wide delegates
CD-01
Delegates at stake: 6 (Obama 4, Clinton 2)
District profile
District analysis: This district is the only one in North Carolina where African American's make up a majority of the entire population, it's represented by Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D) who has already endorsed Barack Obama for president. Assuming that African Americans make up 60% of the electorate here (which, not knowing much about how whites in this district vote is probably a decent guess), and presuming that Obama wins 85% of the AA vote (which, I'm going to say is likely low, but I'd rather be conservative in my estimate), he would only need to win 19% of the white vote to get over 58.25% of the vote for a 4-2 split in the district. There's no doubt that Obama will get the 4-2 spread, but the real question is whether or not he can get 66.7% of the vote to get a 5-1 split. Even though I think that Obama can do it, I don't believe he will, which is why I'm calling this a 4-2 split.
CD-02
Delegates at stake: 6 (Obama 3, Clinton 3)
District profile
District analysis: Basically this is lower Raleigh, it also, ironically enough, contains the town of Clinton. The district is represented by Rep. Bob Etheridge (D) who has remained neutral. This congressional district reminds me so much of MS-01 where Clinton edged out Obama, except for a few things. This district is slightly more educated, has a slightly higher number of African Americans, is quite a bit younger, has a slightly higher median income, has significantly fewere whites, and has a fairly large latino population (a little over 10%). Clinton was only barely able to edge Obama out in MS-01, and even factoring in that latino population, more likely than not, Obama will edge out Clinton here, but not nearly enough to get the same split as in CD-01, this district is a wash.
CD-03
Delegates at stake: 4 (Clinton 2 Obama 2)
District profile
District analysis: This district is represented by Rep. Walter B. Jones (R), who, after being an ardant supporter of th Iraq War (the guy who coined "freedom fries"), he has since become a pretty vocal opponent of the war. Now, there is little doubt in my mind that Clinton will win the majority of votes here, but even with that in mind, I don't see either candidate breaking the 62.5% threshold needed to get a 3-1 split, although that could change. Unless something new comes to my attention, I'm considering this to be a delegate tie.
CD-04
Delegates at stake: 9 (Obama 6 Clinton 3)
District profile
District analysis: Ok, I was originally saying that this district would go 7-2 for Obama, but on further inspection, the most likely outcome does seem to be a 6-3 split (Obama will have no problem breaking the 61.2% threshold for this split), but getting to 72.3% is going to be a bit harder. VA-08, which is very similar to NC-04 (though more educated and with fewer African Americans), only gave Obama 63% of the vote. Now, I have a feeling that number was skewed thanks to its proximity to DC (lots of federal employees) so I think that Clinton got a boost out of that, however; even presuming that, it's still unlikely that Obama can get the 7-2 split.
CD-05
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 3 Obama 2)
District profile
District analysis: Well, we've reached the "Appalachia" part of the state, but even still, this congressional district isn't nearly as bad as say OH-18 or VA-09 for Obama. There are very few African Americans here (only about 7.6% of the population), but the district is certainly better educated than OH-06, the only district in Ohio where Clinton broke 70% of the vote. Clinton will easily get the 3-2 split, but it's going to be nearly impossible for her to get 70% of the vote here, especially with such a (relatively) high rate of education.
CD-06
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 3, Obama 2)
District profile
District analysis: Not much more to say than it is basically the same as the 5th district, albeit with a slightly higher education rate. Clinton will win the district with a 3-2 split.
CD-07
Delegates at stake: 6 (Obama 4, Clinton 2)
District profile
District analysis: I'm a bit torn on this district, first of all, I want to say that I believe that Obama is going to win this district pretty easily, but I'm not 100% sure whether or not he'll do well enough to break 58.35% to get a 4-2 split. My gut tells me yes, the fact that this district is 21% AA plus has a pretty solid rate of those with a Bachelor's degree helps out, plus something to notice is that this district is almost the same as the state as a whole, which I believe Obama will win by 20 points or more, so I'm going to call this one a 4-2 split for Obama, though I'll admit that I could be wrong.
CD-08
Delegates at stake: 5 (Obama 3, Clinton 2)
District Profile
District analysis: I was trying to find the closest thing to this district, and what do you know, I find out that SC-05 is almost exactly like it. Obama will, much like in that district, win a majority of the vote, but he won't break the 70% to make it to 4-1.
CD-09
Delegates at stake: 6 (Obama 4, Clinton 2)
District profile
District analysis: This district is very much like VA-07, where Obama won a solid 66% of the vote. He will have no problem getting the 4-2 split, and it's entirely possible that he'll hit 66.7% to get a 5-1 split (though, I would say that it's pretty unlikely, admittedly).
CD-10
Delegates at stake: 5 (Clinton 3, Obama 2)
District profile
District analysis: This district is another of the "Appalachia" parts of the state, and one of the few districts where Clinton can hope to do well. In fact, this district has the same basic make-up as VA-09 (which was the only district in Virginia which Clinton outdid Obama). Even in that district, Clinton was only able to get 65% of the vote, which falls below the 70% needed for a 4-1 split (and this district has twice as many African Americans and is slightly better educated).
CD-11
Delegates at stake: 6 (Clinton 3, Obama 3)
District profile
District analysis: This is the final "Appalachia" district in the state, but I'll be honest, it reminds me more of VA-06 than OH-06, and will probably turn out the same way. Now, the fact that there are fewer African Americans in this district than in VA-06 may be enough to give Clinton a majority here, but she won't get 58.35% to hit the 4-2 split.
CD-12
Delegates at stake: 7 (Obama 5, Clinton 2)
District profile
District analysis: This district is close to, but not quite, a majority-minority district, in addition, this district has a relatively high level of education, it's basically VA-04 (where Obama won 72%) only with a higher African American population (and a relatively high latino population). Obama will easily clear 64.3% to get a 5-2 split here, but he'll likely fall short of getting the 78.6% needed for a 6-1 vote (I'd say that he'll get 75-25, or something like that).
CD-13
Delegates at stake: 7 (Obama 5, Clinton 2)
District profile
District analysis: This is the sister district to VA-02, where Obama won 65% of the vote (and in that district, there was a smaller proportion of African Americans), Obama will, once again, break 64.3% and will get a 5-2 split.
At-Large Delegates and PLEOs
Delegates at stake: 38 (at-large: Obama 16, Clinton 10; PLEOs: Obama 7, Clinton 5)
First of all, I'm assuming that Barack Obama will win the state by over 20 points, which will almost certainly guarantee a minimum split of 22-15 for at-large and PLEOs in favor of Obama. A 7-5 split for PLEOs is set in stone, he will do no better or worse than that. As far as at-large delegates go, Obama will get, at a minimum, a 15-11 split, and, if he gets 61.65% of the vote, he'll get a 16-10 split (which I actually believe is more likely than not).
Grand Total: Obama 68, Clinton 47