Cross-posted at Election Inspection
Well, we're about a week and a half away from the Pennsylvania primary and three and a half weeks away from the Indiana and North Carolina primaries, so I'd like to take a moment to offer a few predictions and thoughts about how all three states will turn out.
Taking a look at Pennsylvania, the unofficial consensus at Election Inspection right now seems to be that Clinton will win the state with a margin of somewhere between 8-12 points (my own "official" margin is 9, but I'm giving myself a margin of something between Clinton +8 to Clinton +12 for right now). Election Inspection has already projected that the CD delegate split will be Clinton 55 Obama 48, and now we're ready to predict that Clinton will likely get 31 statewide delegates (PLEOs and At large delegates) and Obama will get 24. so our delegate projection is going to be Clinton 86 Obama 72 (Clinton +14). Now, since I've gotten a bit spooked by SUSA's most recent poll, I'd like to add that the split could be anywhere between Clinton +10 and Clinton +26 (so I'm prepared for a delegate split of anywhere from Clinton 84 Obama 74 to Clinton 92 Obama 66). This delegate projection is going to be subject to some changes depending on new polling, plus I'm waiting for The Field's final projection (Al Giordano has had one of the best track records as far as delegate projections go, even though I think his initial projection was a bit too high for Clinton). Speaking of Al, I'd like to add that he believes that SUSA's poll is in fact more accurate than the others, and something which I've learned this cycle is that anyone who bets against Al Giordano should be prepared to lose a bundle, so while I stick to my delegate projection, I also recognize that it could very easily be underestimating Clinton's strength in Pennsylvania (especially with her control of the state's Democratic machine).
Now, as far as North Carolina is concerned, I believe that Obama is well positioned to win the state by over 20 points. Right now, Election Inspection predicts that the CD level split will be Obama 44 Clinton 35. Now, even though I believe that Obama has the ability to win the state by a 20+ margin, I'm not quite ready to make a projection for the statewide delegate breakdown, except to say that, if my projection for Pennsylvania turns out to be correct, it is almost certain that Obama will net more delegates out of North Carolina than what Clinton nets out of Pennsylvania. One of the reasons I'm pretty confident about that is the number of field offices each campaign has in the state (Obama has 18, while Clinton has 10). Now, this is partially a by-product of Obama's superior fundraising , but because the fundamentals of North Carolina already favor Obama, his superior organization will allow him to take advantage of it (incidentally, this is what will help him limit the damage in Pennsylvania).
The real toss-up here is definitely Indiana, even though recent polls have given Clinton a solid lead in the state. I haven't made a delegate projection for Indiana simply because, unlike Pennsylvania and North Carolina, the main question is not what the margin of victory will be, it's going to be a question of who actually wins the state. Now, regardless of who wins, I believe that the victory margin will be no greater than 5 points either way, and that the ultimate delegate split will be no greater than a net gain of 4 for whichever candidate wins the state (a 38-34 split either way). Something else which I would like to note, if Hillary Clinton's victory margin is anything under four points, that means that she owes her victory to Republicans who voted in the Democratic primary for the express purpose of causing trouble. Now, a win is a win, and the media will almost certainly portray a Clinton victory in Indiana as a win for her, but I wouldn't count on superdelegates to fall for that, and in fact there is a very good chance that a victory on the back of Republicans could have the unintended consequence of convincing superdelegates (particularly those who are in tight re-election races or are running for higher office; look at Tom Udall, Mark Udall, Tom Allen, Mary Landrieu, Nick Lampson, Jay Nixon, etc.) to rally behind Obama to stop the chaos. Now, that's just my opinion on the matter, but don't presume that superdelegates, who are far more politically savvy than the public at large, would fall for a primary win based upon a margin of victory gained by voters who have no intention of voting for the Democrat in the fall. With that in mind, I will be posting a delegate projection for Indiana pretty soon (hopefully within a week).
Next time, I'll give some final thoughts to the primaries of Oregon, Kentucky, and West Virginia (though I'm going to add that I believe after May 6, we'll know whether or not this is going to the convention or if at the end of the primaries, Barack Obama will be the nominee).