As Hillary has begun to look better in the polls in Ohio and Texas, the possibility of an Obama blowout looks less and less likely. However, I'm left wondering if we're going to see a similar general trajectory to Super Tuesday. Let me go down the reasons...
The Buildup: Before super Tuesday, Obama had a big win in South Carolina that catapulted him upwards in polls across the country. The recent round of wins also allowed him to build into a national front runner, as well as close gaps in Ohio and Texas.
The Unreasonable Expectations: As odd polls came out showing Obama ahead in all sorts of states, great expectations of wins began. People began saying he would take California, Massachusetts, possibly even New Jersey. Similarly, up until a few days ago, some people were suggesting Obama could take all four states, even Rhode Island
The Let-Down of Election Night: Let's say Obama wins Vermont, narrowly loses the Texas primary popular vote, loses Ohio by eight points, and loses Rhode Island by ten. The story of the night will be Clinton's made a miraculous comeback. No one will pay attention to the fact that Obama ended up closing the gap in each state by ten points or more, even the ones he lost, and by any expectations besides those of five days prior, he's well positioned.
Reality Sets In: As the next day goes on, it's clear that Obama narrowly won the primary delegate count in Texas, and swept the caucuses. Due to the weighing of congressional districts by turnout in Ohio, his loss is limited there as well. He actually ends up winning the pledged delegate count by perhaps ten to fifteen delegates.
The Mini-Winning Streak: Over the next week, Obama handily wins Mississippi and Wyoming. People begin to wonder why March 4 was ever considered a win for Clinton.
And then we head into the Pennsylvania interval - or perhaps not. If we do, the same general pattern could well happen again - huge Obama build-up with an ultimate narrow loss, followed by Obama wins in North Carolina and Indiana. Essentially, a race were Obama stays slightly ahead but it goes to the convention unless the superdelegates take Hillary back behind the barn.