As I sit here, trying to do work, I'm left wondering about the outcome of next week's elections in Wisconsin and Hawaii. Obviously, if Hillary wins either or both it is a major body blow for Obama, and the race is back to 50/50. Also obviously, if Obama blows Hillary out by ten points in Wisconsin and 20-30 in Hawaii, the Obamamentum continues. But what about an intermediate scenario.
Jerome on MyDD, among others, has been trying to push this idea that a "close race" in Wisconsin will help to change the narrative. Say she finishes within 4 points or less - will that matter?
I would lean towards no for three reasons.
- The main story those not attuned to politics will see is "Obama sweeps contests." Except for the Chesapeake primary, the margins of the individual races have not been reported upon heavily.
- The Clinton campaign has been spinning too heavily each of their losses so far (remember, Obama didn't come up with an excuse for New Hampshire). This means any inevitable spin about "Obama slipping" will be greeted with suspicion - a boy who cried wolf problem essentially.
- Hillary is, if you pardon my phraseology, half-assed campaigning in Wisconsin (and not contesting Hawaii) instead of going all out is going to hurt them. In Wisconsin, the story could either be falsely reported as Hillary giving it her all, and not closing, or truthfully as giving it a half-hearted attempt, not winning, and blowing a shot to bloody Obama. If Hawaii is at all close, the story will all be Clinton's missed opportunities. Either way, the storyline, if there is one, will focus on the bad decisions of the Clinton campaign.
Of course, less delegates out of WI or HI will hurt Obama, and mean he'll have to win Texas by a more decisive margin to put Hillary away on March 5th. But I don't see anything a close loss does for Hillary that favors it heavily over a blowout. Perhaps that's why she decided not to contest either state heavily.