Maybe some people want to look forward to the next two years of governance, but as a stat junkie, I felt like seeing how likely additional pickups are in 2010. At the moment, it looks exceedingly likely we'll get to 60 in 2010, possibly surpassing it by a significant margin.
Here's a rundown of what we can see two years out.
Democrats
Ten of the fifteen Democratic senate seats should be safe, provided the incumbent runs. These are Inouye (HI), Bayh (IN), Mikulski (MD), Reid (NV), Schumer (NY), Dorgan (ND), Wyden (OR), Leahey (VT), Murray (WA), and Feingold (WI). All won in 2002 by margins of 10% or greater, and all of them have approval ratings of greater than 50%.
There are a few of some concern however, which include:
Blanche Lincoln (AR): While she's young and reasonably popular, I believe Huckabee would have a strong shot at this seat if he chose to run.
Barbara Boxer (CA): Schwarzenegger has made it clear he wishes to run for this seat in 2010. I believe he's tarnished enough now that he'd lose, but this seat cannot be thought of as totally safe. In addition, Boxer will be 69 by 2010, so she may retire for health reasons or otherwise regardless.
Ken Salazar (CO): He is mainly on this list because he only won by 4% in 2004. With the continuing demographic shifts in the state, and the weak bench for Republicans, he must be considered heavily favored.
Chris Dodd: (D): The recent realization of the mortgage perks he received from Countrywide Financial has soured Connecticut voters on Dodd - he has a negative approval rating for the first time. That said, the bench is weak. Jodi Rell will not run for the seat, and there are no remaining Republican congressmen. Seat would be safer if it were open, but it's pretty safe either way.
Replacement for Obama (IL): Given the partisan lean of the state, the Democrat is clearly heavily favored. But the election of a two-year appointed replacement to a full term can never be thought of as a lock.
In addition, two seats will be highly vulnerable if there is a retirement. These are Hawaii and North Dakota. Linda Lingle is very popular, and I believe a lock for an open Senate seat. North Dakota is more complicated, as Earl Pomeroy is fairly popular and could move up into the seat - more likely a tossup than anything.
Bottom line is seven of eight seats have some potential for loss, although a Republican pickup of 1-3 seats seems most likely. Fortunately, there are far, far more vulnerable Republican senators.
Republicans
Eighteen Republican senators are up for re-election in 2010. Of these only six are totally safe: Shelby (AL), Isakon (GA), Crapo (ID), Grasley (IA), Thune (SD) and Bennet (UT). Everyone else has some degree of vulnerability. Let's go down the list.
Lisa Murkowski (AL): Lisa won by only 3% in 2004, and her approval rating is fairly lackluster. That said, the Democratic bench is fairly weak, and I don't have a lot of faith in the voters of Alaska at the moment. Probably leans R, but certainly vulnerable.
John McCain (AZ): Recent polls have suggested if Janet Napolitano runs, she wipes the floor with him. In addition, with his dreams for the presidency dashed, and never being particularly liked in his caucus, he may retire. I'd rate the race a tossup/lean D right now
Mel Martinez (FL): Mel won by only 1% in 2004, Obama carried the state, and his approval rating has never broken 50%. While he has no scandals in particular surrounding him AFAIK, he's in about as much danger as you could imagine an incumbent being in two years out. Tossup.
Jim Bunning (KY): Everybody's favorite senile senator only won by 2% against an underfunded, low-name recognition opponent in the heavily-Republican year of 2004. If he runs again, he'll almost certainly lose to Ben Chandler. At 79, it's quite likely he doesn't run again however, and one of the Republican congresscritters probably stands a fighting chance against Chandler.
David Vitter (LA): Sadly, Vitter did not resign after his call-girl scandal, and has continued to have fairly high approval ratings. Given the state Democratic party is on the decline, I can't see a credible challenger to him at the moment, though I may be pleasantly surprised.
Kit Bond (MO): Kit Bond was last re-elected by a pretty wide margin, but signs are former governor Roger Wilson will seek to challenge him in 2010. His approval ratings aren't great at the moment either (although sadly better than Claire McCaskill). Probably lean R at the moment - a lot depends upon the national environment by 2010.
Judd Gregg (NH): With the loss of Sununnu and the general political shift in his state, Gregg must be at least somewhat scared. My impression was is a popular political figure, but I've been corrected on this by people on the site (I'm not aware of any approval ratings taken of him in the past year). Still, he must be considered undre threat.
Richard Burr (NC): Burr was only elected by a 5% margin in 2004, and his approval rating has never broken 50%. The bench in North Carolina is strong enough a credible challenger will surface. Consider it a tossup for now, but like Martinez, he'll probably lose.
George Voinovich (OH): Voinovich last won in a walk, but he isn't particularly popular. With the resurgent Democratic party in the state, he's liable to face a stiff challenge as well. By 2010 he may decide to retire as well, as he will be 71 years old, in which case a Democrat will likely be a slight favorite.
Tom Coburn (OK): Despite winning in 2004 by a fairly wide margin, Coburn has never been a particularly popular senator. if Brad Henry runs against him, he'll be in for the ride of his life.
Arlen Specter (PA): Though he's had close scrapes before, Arlen is probably in this seat as long as he wants it. That said, he will be 80 in 2010. Although he's said he plans running again, I doubt he will, in which case the seat will be heavily favored as a Democratic pickup.
Jim DeMint (SC): A first termer, Jim has never been particularly popular. That said, the Democratic bench in the state is very, very weak. Off chance he gets knocked off however.
Even among the safe senators, two, Grassley and Thune, may retire. Grassley will be 77 in 2010, and Thune, while young, has shown some interest in running for the governor's mansion. In that case, the former is probably lean D (Dem bench and PVI slighly greater now in IA), and the latter would be a tossup (deep red state, but Stephanie Hersh Sandlin, the Democratic representative, is quite popular.
Finally, there will be an open seat in Kansas in 2010. I believe if Sebelius runs for it she wins, but otherwise, the Republicans are heavily favored.
Bottom line is Democrats lose between one and three seats, depending upon retirements. Republicans, however, lose between five and seven seats, again depending upon retirements. This means the net pickup for 2010 for the Dems is between two and six seats - under most scenarios enough to get us to 60.
Thoughts?