Like every Obama supporter, this is the last thing I thought possible tonight.
And after the December swings in both parties and the Iowa and NH contests, I no longer have any faith in my ability to predict the nominations in either party.
And in spite of that I will continue to pronounce my predictions with the greatest confidence, as always. But deep down inside I'll be confused and bewildered.
Much more below the jump.
I thought since June that Romney was the real frontrunner for the bad guys. And eventually conventional wisdom came around to agree. And then the last guy I thought had a chance to do anything, a guy who I figured would get 2% in Iowa and maybe NH before dropping out, pulled ahead in polling, overcame massive paid media hits and strong ground organization by his chief foe, and won. I was wrong.
I thought through the fall that my man Obama was a dead duck. I thought Hillary real had become inevitable. And, really, at that point she was, in the sense that she would have won the nomination going away at that point had Iowa and NH been back then. And then my man started a wave of attacks I thought were desperate and weak. But then Hillary screwed up, the attacks were working, and my man closed the gap and made Iowa a real race. I was wrong.
I thought McCain was a dead duck last summer, and everything he was doing after that was purely quixotic. I was wrong.
After Christmas I thought Obama would win Iowa but made the prediction admittedly knowing it was partly wishful. Then he won much bigger than I imagined possible. I was wrong...and for the first time, very excited about it.
And tonight, yet another shocker.
This campaign on both sides has been, all together, like a well-written action adventure movie. Or, perhaps, a poorly written one, because as fiction this stuff wouldn't be believable. You gotta see it in real life to believe it.
So all told, I now have no idea whether Obama or Hillary will be the Democratic nominee. At least I know it will be one of the 2, putting us in better position than the Republicans who truly have no idea between 4 different guys.
I root on for Obama, and I'll likely toss in another token $25 or so into his coffers on top of the $275 I've given him. He's still performed better in both states than anyone realistically could have thought possible on Thanksgiving. But he had a chance to seal the deal tonight and couldn't get it done. Hillary has a very strong base, and this is a pitched fork battle the rest of the way.
The only thing I ultimately demand now is for us to have a presumptive nominee by my birthday, which is February 26th. Actually it should be over by February 13th at the latest, given the 2/5 and 2/12 states voting.
And I hope to God that somehow, somehow, the Rethugs remain in disarray at that time with 3 or even 4 guys still having shot and almost no states left. It still could happen.
So, bottom line for tonight: hats off to Hillary's people for making the unimaginable a reality. You earned it. I wouldn't be saying that if the foe was a Rethug, but for fellow Dems, graciousness is necessary. We're all going to need each other in November.