An absolutely shocking new American Research Group poll is out on a Senate race rematch between Jeane Shaheen and incumbent Rethug John Sununu. More below the flip.
The new poll shows former Governor Shaheen beating Sununu by a stunning 57-29 were the election held today. ARG previously polled Shaheen as having a 44-34 advantage, demonstrating that Sununu's refusal to break with his party on a few key votes, as other vulnerable incumbent Rethugs Norm Coleman and Gordon Smith have, is taking its toll on him.
A poll with results like this demands to have questions answered about the sample: was it top-heavy with Democrats?
ARG's sample of 553 registered voters included 166 Goopers, 155 Dems, and 232 undeclared. Percentage-wise this adds up to 30 percent Goopers, 28 percent Dems, and 42 percent undeclared. I haven't been able to find New Hampshire voter registration statistics, as the state's Secretary of State web site either doesn't have that information or makes it hard to find. I did find a news article that claimed 44 percent of New Hampshire voters were undeclared as of sometime in 2006, so that's at least in the ballpark for the ARG poll. And I vaguely recall from elsewhere that the state still has more registered Goopers than Dems, so that, too, is in line with this poll. Ultimately I have to conclude that the sample appears to be a representative one.
Given that Markos claims Shaheen is running, I'm viewing this as a likely pick-up along with the Colorado seat!