I figured that while there is much attention drawn to the Democratic efforts to win over control of both Houses of Congress, little notice is taken to the chances the Democrats have in what seems to be a good year for them to make progress in the state legislatures. I think these races should be a focus of the netroots, where their effort really can make the difference and much less money is needed to really have an impact.
I examined the Ohio state senate races here. Mister Gloom thankfully took a look at the Ohio state house races here (As there are regularly many more House seats than senate seats, this is much more work).
With Ed Rendell and Bob Casey Jr. heading the Democratic ticket this year, I liked the chances for Democrats in PA as well and looked at the state senate races here. So now I want to share my thoughts about the state house races in PA, where there should be some real opportunities for Democrats.
The PA House has 203 seats which are all up for reelection this year. The current breakdown is 94D/109R, so a switch of 8 seats is necessary to takeover the PA House. You can view or download district maps
here.
First, I want to look at competitive or potentially competitive House races in districts held by Republicans.
170th district
One of the most competitive districts should be the 170th district held by St. Rep. George Kenney Jr. (R). He won in 2004 with 57,7%/42,3%. His opponent in 2006 - like in 2004 - is legislative advisor Brendan Boyle. In the 2006 primary, both were unopposed and Boyle received 2.188 votes while Rep. Kenney got only 1.394 votes. Boyle also seems to be competitive in fundraising, he has 27.732,96 $ CoH, Rep. Kenney has 29.131,32 $.
The 170th district mostly lies in Philadelphia county, where Kerry won overwhelmingly. I don't have a breakdown of the Bush/Kerry performance by legislative district, but in Philadelphia as a whole, Kerry won with 80,4%/19,3%. The 170th district belongs to the 8th and 13th Congressional District of Rep. Fitzpatrick (R) and Rep. Schwartz (D), both first-term incumbants running for reelection. While Rep. Schwartz has drawn only an 2nd-tier opponent, Rep. Fitzpatrick faces a tough challenge from netroots-endorsed Patrick Murphy. Popular fmr. Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell heading the ticket should help Boyle as well.
131st district
The 131st district is now held by Rep. Karen Beyer (R) who got into office through a special election, which was caused ultimately by Rep. Toomey's challenge to Sen. Specter in 2004. He vacated his House seat, for which St. Sen. Charlie Dent ran and won. He Dent had to leave his state senate seat, and St. Rep. Browne won that seat in a speacial election, now vacating his state house seat in the 131st district. Karen Beyer won the following special election against Salisbury Township Treasurer Linda Minger with 50,7%/42,1%. Linda Minger is running again in 2006. In the 2006 primary Minger got 2.408 votes, Rep. Beyer got 1.877 votes. Rep. Beyer has 4.960,69 $ CoH, Linda Minger has 1.030,14 $.
The 131st district contains of southeast Lehigh County, which voted 51,0%/48,4% for Kerry. It belongs to the 15th CD of Rep. Dent, who has no serious opponent in 2006.
177th district
The 177th district is held by Rep. John Taylor (R), who was unopposed in 2004. His opponent in 2006 is Harry Enggasser (no website), who got 1.817 votes in the primary compared to 1.204 votes for Re. Taylor. On the other hand Rep. Taylor has 66.609,19 $ CoH, I have no information about Enggasser's treasury.
The 177th district also lies in heavily Democratic Philadelphia, it belongs to the 1st and 13th CD of Reps. Brady (D) and Schwartz, both of whom are without serious opposition. I don't know whether Enggasser is a really impressive candidate, but perhaps Ed Rendell can deliver a win here.
143rd district
The 143rd district is held by Rep. McIlhinney, who won with 60,6%/39,4% in 2004 and now is running for the state senate. The Republican candidate is Marguerite Quinn, her opponent is security expert Larry Glick. In the primary Quinn got 2.034 votes, Glick got 1.845. Quinn has 6.867,11 $ CoH, Glick has 1.330,12 $.
The 143rd district lies in northeastern Bucks county, Kerry carried the county 51,1%/48,3%. It belongs to the competitive 8th CD of Rep. Fitzpatrick. Bucks County also hosts two competitive state senate races. Glick strikes me as a seriuos and potentially strong candidate from what I can read on his website, but he needs some money (hint!).
130th district
The 130th district is held by Rep. Leh (R), who won in 2004 with 65,9%/34,1%. But in 2006, Rep. Leh lost his primary race against Billy Reed with 1.535 to 1.675 votes. Democratic candidate is Oley Township supervisor David Kessler, who was unopposed in the primary and got 2.597 votes. Kessler has 3.402,20 $, I have no information about Reed's treasury.
The 130th district contains of southeastern Berks County, which went for Bush 53%/47%. The 130th district is split between the 6th and the 17th CD of Reps. Gerlach (R) and Holden (D). While Holden is safe in November, Gerlach is one of the most vulnerable incumbants, facing the second challenge from Lois Murphy after besting her 51%/49% in 2004.
42nd district
Incumbant in the 42nd district is Rep. Stevenson (R), who was unopposed in 2004. He lost his primary in 2006 against Mark Harris with 2.225 to 2.776 votes with a third candidate taking 1.174 votes. The Democratic candidate will be attorney Matt Smith, who received unopposed 5.084 votes in the primary. Matt Smith has 12.383,21 $ CoH, Mark Harris has 3.693,59 $ left, but he spent heavily in the primary. He raised much more.
The 42nd district is the first district I named that is not located in southeast PA (Philadelphia and suburbs). The 42nd HD is part of Pittsburgh, Allegheny county, which went for Kerry 57%/42%. It belongs to the 18th CD of Rep. Tim Murphy (R), who has no competitive race in 2006.
31st district
The 31st district is held by Rep. David Steil (R), who won in 2004 with 57%/43%. In the primary he received 1.891 votes. His Democratic opponent Michael Diamond (no website) received 1.329 votes and a primary opponent 978 votes. Rep. Steil has 8.257,28 $ CoH, Diamond's campaign is 2.093,22 $ in debt.
The 31st district also belongs to Bucks County, which really seems to be a major battleground in November.
151st district
The 151st district is held by Rep. Eugene McGill (R). He won in 2004 with 58,0%/42,0%. In the 2006 primary, he got 2.092 votes, his Democratic opponent Ambler's Borough Council member Rick Taylor received 1.429 votes. Rep. McGill has 8.544,76 $ CoH, Rick Taylor has 13.219,24 $.
The 151st district contains of parts of Montgomery County, which went for Kerry 55,6%/44,0%. It belongs to the 13th CD of Rep. Schwartz.
3rd district
The 3rd district is held by Rep. Matthew Good, who was unopposed in 2004. In a contested primary, he got 3.017 votes against 2 opponents, who drew 2.328 and 845 votes (more than him). His Democratic opponent will be Ebert Beeman, who won the primary with 4.191 to 1.147 votes. Matthew Good raised a lot of money, but he spent it all and more, now being 18.796,10 $ in debt. Beeman has 6.950 $ CoH.
The 3rd district contains of parts of Erie County, which went for Kerry 54%/46%. It belongs to the 3rd district of Rep. English, who doesn't face a very serious challenge in November.
77th district
This is the district of Rep. Lynn Harman, who won 57,7%/40,3% in 2004. She is retiring in 2006, probably because of the pay-raise scandal. Her successor shall be Barbara Spencer, who won the Republican primary with 2.117 votes, 3 opponents drew 3.276 votes combined. The Democratic candidate will be Centre County Commissioner Scott Conklin. Barbara Spencer has 7.786,02 $ CoH, I have no information about Scott Conklin.
The 77th district contains of the southwestern part of Centre county, which went for Bush 52%/48%. It belongs to the pretty conservative 5th CD of Rep. Peterson (R).
Scott Conklin seems to be a very serious candidate as County commissioner, but I'm a bit concerned, why he hasn't filed a campaign finance report. He has announced his candidacy in January, so there should be a report.
142nd district
The incumbant is Rep. Matthew Wright, who won in 2004 with 58,7%/41,3%. In the primary he got 1.980 votes, an opponent got 970 votes. His Democratic opponent will be 2002 nominee and state government budget and policy analyst Chris King, who drew 2.040 votes in the primary against an opponent who got 927 votes. Rep. Wright has 18.583,94 $ CoH, Chris King has 2.050.08 $.
This is just another competitive race in Bucks county.
109th district
The 109th district is held by Rep. David Millard, who won in 2004 with 57,7%/42,3%. In his uncontested primary, he got 2.764 votes. His Democratic opponent will be attorney David Slavick, who won the primary 2.060 to 747 votes. Rep. Millard has 16.401,20 $ CoH, I have no information about David Slavick.
The 109th district contains most parts of Columbia county, which went for Bush 60%/40%. It belongs to the 11th CD of Rep. Kanjorski (D), who has no serious opponent.
176th district
This district is held by Rep. Mario Scavello, who won in 2004 with 58,9%/37,4%. In the primary, he received 1.505 votes. His Democratic opponent will be retiree Bernard Kennedy, who got 1.515 votes in the primary. Mario Scavello has 22.969,60 $ CoH, Kennedy has 336,54 $.
The 176th district contains of northern and central parts of Monroe county, which went for Bush 49,6%/49,6% (Bush got 4 votes more than Kerry). It also belongs to the 11th CD of Rep. Kanjorski.
62nd district
The incumbant in the 62nd district is Rep. Dave Reed, who won in 2004 with 56,8%/43,2%. He received 2.640 votes in the primary. His opponent in November will be Cynthia Spielman, who got 2.698 votes in the primary. Rep. Reed has 27.234,06 $ CoH, Cynthia Spielman has 1.434.64 $.
This district contains of the southern parts of Indiana County, which went for Bush with 56%/44%. It mostly belongs to the 9th CD of Rep. Shuster (R).
63rd district
The 63rd district is held by Rep. Fred McIlhattan, who won in 2004 without Democratic opposition. He received 3.051 votes in the primary. His opponent will be Christopher Shropshire, who got 2.670 votes. Rep. McIlhattan has 28.380,47 $ CoH, while Shropshire has 1.148,10 $.
The 63rd district sontains of Clarion county and the northeastern parts of Armstrong county. which went for Buch 64%/35% and 61%/39%. It is split between the 3rd and the 5th CD of Reps. English and Peterson.
134th district
The 134 th district is held by Rep. Douglas Reichley, who won in 2004 without Democratic opposition. In 2006, he received 2.295 votes in the primary. His opponent will be Christopher Casey, who got 2.180 votes. Rep. Reichley has 106.694,70 $ CoH, no information about Casey (but who needs cash with this name).
Th 134th district contains of eastern parts of Berks county and belongs to the highly competitivc 6th CD of Rep. Gerlach.
172nd district
The 172nd district is held by House speaker John Perzel. He won in 2004 with 74,7%. In the primary he got 2.100 votes. His opponent will be Tim Kearney, who received 2.426 votes. John Perzel has 1.230.618,73 $ CoH (and an own PAC), Kearney didn't file a report.
Th 172nd district lies in Philadelphia and belongs to the 13th CD of Rep. Schwartz.
These are the districts, where there is a - sometimes remote - possibility of a pick-up for Democrats in the PA house. There are some districts as well, where Democrats will have to play defense:
189th district
Incumbant in this district is Rep. John Siptroth. He won his seat in a special electon with 51,6% of the vote. He received 1.403 votes in the primary, his Republican opponent Monroe county commisioners chairwoman Donna Asure 1.605 votes. Rep. Siptroth has 34.112,03 $ CoH, Asure has 3.288,89 $.
The 189th district contains of southeastern parts of Pike county and eastern parts of Monroe county. It is split between the 10th and 11th CD of Reps. Sherwood and Kanjorski. Rep. Sherwood faces a serious challenge from Chris Carney.
166th district
The 166th district is held by Rep. Greg Vitali. He won in 2004 with 59,9% of the vote. He received 2.272 votes in the primary in 2006, his Republican opponent and 2004 nominee John Williamson got 2.437 votes. Rep. Vitali has 10.701,72 $, I have no information about Williamson.
The 166th district belongs to Delaware County, which went for Kerry 57%/42%, and the 7th CD of Rep. Weldon, who has to run against Joe Sestak in November.
96th district
the 96th district is held by Rep. Mike Sturla, who was unopposed in 2004. He received 1.426 votes in the primary, his opponent in November wil be Patrick Snyder, who won his primary 1.145 to 629 votes. Rep. Sturla has 11.873,26 § CoH, Snyder has 2.806,18 $.
The 96th district consists of Lancaster City in Lancaster County, which went 66%/34% for Bush. It belongs to the 16th CD of Rep. Pitts.
149th district
This is the district of Rep. Daylin Leach, who won in 2004 with 62% of the vote. HE received 2.841 votes in the primary in 2006. Monica Treichel won the Republican primary with 2.090 to 547 votes. Rep. Leach has 34.682,36 $ CoH, Treichel has 11.417,26 $.
This district lies in Montgomery county and is split between the 6th and 7th CD of Reps. Gerlach and Weldon, both of whom face difficult races in November.
148th district
The incumbant in the 148th district is Rep. Mike Gerber, who won in 2004 with 50,2%/48,9%. He received 2.806 votes in the primary, his opponent will be Republcan Tom Gale, who got 2.156 votes. Rep. Gerber has 104.544,42 $ CoH, Gale has 8.331,77 $.
This district also belongs to Montgomery county and is pslit between the 6th and 13th CD of Reps. Gerlach and Schwartz.
153rd district
This district is held by Rep. Josh Shapiro, who won in 2004 with 54,3%/44,7%. He received 2.222 votes in the primary, his Republcan opponent Lou Guerra Jr. got 1.722 votes. Rep. Shapiro has 162.145,50 $ CoH, Guerra has 1.808,54 $.
The 153rd district belongs to Montgomery county and the 13th CD of Rep. Schwartz.
So these are the districts I figured out to be more or less competitive. I think there is at least an outside chance that Democrats can pick-up the 8 seats neccessary to take control of the PA house. The biggest battleground will be in the Philadelphia suburbs of Montgomery, Bucks, Berks and Delaware counties, where Gov. Rendell should have some coattails. The race to defeat Sen. Santorum should add to Democratic turnout here.