We lost and we have to do better in the next cycle. Four more years of Bush are a desaster for the U.S. and the world (perhaps even more interesting for a Foreigner like me), but there is that little hope that it now can only get better. The republicans now have even less excuses for the results of their policies, from growing deficits to higher prices or backdoor or frontdoor drafts.
So what is to expect from the next election cycle? The answer of course depends on the generell political mood in 2005/2006, will Bush finally get it or will it get just worse (as everybody is expecting here)or willo OBL just help him out one more time?
But nevertheless the chances in the upcoming statewide races are differently in each state and depend largely on which candidate can be recruited by the parties. So here are my two cents on these races, but they come from Germany, so I don't consider myself to be too much informed about the political landscape. Corrections and additions are very welcome.
So here we go...
AL: no senate contest, but a hopefully competitive Gov. race to watch. Gov. Riley is highly unpopular, a primary challenge seems even likely (possibly fmr. State Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore). This means a race against an entrenched incumbant or an open race, so we have every reason to field a strong democratic candidate.
Possible contenders seem to be esp. Lt. Gov. Baxley or maybe SoS Worley as strong southern women (Tenenbaum style), fmr. Gov. Siegelman is out of the race after his indictment. House Speaker Hemmett seems like a second tier candidate.
My take for now: no clear favorite
AK: no senate contest, but a Gov. race that could become interesting. Gov. Murkowski is unpopular, but it is unclear if that is enough to overcome the republican tilt of the state. The experience of 2004 that even the highly popular fmr. Gov. Knowles was not able to beat a less impressive incumbant is not that encouraging but midterm elections without GWB on the top of the ticket should go after different rules.
The AK dem. party seems not that rich of stron candidates, possibilities are fmr. Lt. Gov. Ulmer, Sen. Min. Leader Ellis or House Min. Leader Berkowitz.
My take for now: likely Republican
AZ: Sen. Kyl will turn 64 in 2006, a retirement is unlikely. In 2000 Sen. Kyl ran unopposed by the dem. party and there is no strong democratic candidate in sight. The only possibility is AG Goddard, but that is unlikely.
My take for now: Safe Republican
Gov. Napolitano is up for reelection, she is a popular incumbant in an otherwise more republican state. Possible opponents are fmr. Rep. Salmon (her opponent in 2002), SoS Brewer, State Treasurer Peterson or Sen. President Bennett. Esp. the other office holder should be able to give her a strong challenge, but she is the favorite.
My take for now: leans Democratic
AR: no senate contest, but Gov. Huckabee is term-limiled out of office. The Republican nominee will almost certainly be Lt. Gov. Rockefeller, possible democratic candidates are Rep. Ross, AG Beebe or fmr. State Treasurer Fisher, who gave Huckabee a stronger than expected challenge in 2002. Even though GWB came in strong this year and Lt. Gov. Rockefeller is a strong candidate, Democrats in the state are dominant and should be able to make this a race.
My take for now: leans Republican
CA: Sen. Feinstein will turn 73 in 2006, so a retirement is possible. Replacement candidates are Reps. Sanchez, Harman, Tauscher or Waxman. Possible strong Republican contenders could be Reps. Dreier, Doolittle, Lewis, Bono or Issa. A state with a strong democratic tilt, Sen. Feinstein should be a shoo-in, scaring away every thinkable possibly competitive challenger. An open seat opportunity won the other hand will lead to a huge and costly fight with Gov. Schwarzenegger about the political power in the state even if a Schwarzenegger candidacy seems very unlikely.
My take for now: Safe Democratic (if Sen. Feinstein seeks reelection)
leans Democratic (if Sen. Feinstein retires)
Gov. Schwarzenegger is also up for reelection after completing fmr. Gov. Davis' term. Of course he is the 800 pound gorilla in the race, but the democratic party cannot let this Gov. race stay uncontested, there has to be a strong challenger. Possible candidates are SoS Shelley and AG Lockyer.
My take for now: likely Republican
CO: no senate contest in this state, but Gov. Owens is term-limited. Replacement candidates for the Republicans are fmr. Reps. McInnis, Schaffer, Lt. Gov. Norton and SoS Davidson. Despite the success in the 2004 election with the takeover in the state legislature there seem to be little strong possible democratic contenders. Rep. Udall could be a little to liberal for a statewide race. So the best candidate for the Dems should be Denvor Mayor Hickenlooper.
My take for now: No clear favorite
CT: Sen. Lieberman will be 64 in 2006, a retirement is unlikely, I don't see a serious primary challenge either. There is even no strong Republican challenger in sight, no chance for a run from Reps. Johnson, Simmons or Shays.
My take for now: Safe Democratic
Interesting should be the Gov. race after the resignation of Gov. Rowling. Now-Gov. Rell should be running for a term in her own right, but against Sen. Dodd she would be the underdog. Other possible or declared dem. contenders are AG Blumenthal, SoS Bysiewicz or the Mayors of New Haven and Stamford, DeStefano and Malloy.
My take for now: likely Democratic (if Sen. Dodd runs)
leans Democratic (if another strong Dem runs)
DE: Sen. Carper completes his first term, no chance of a retirement. A challenge from Rep. Castle seems unlikely, other possible republican candidates are AG Brady and State Auditor Wagner.
My take for now: Safe or likely Democratic (depending on the republican candidate)
FL: Sen. Nelson is up for reelection after his first term. He is the only statewide officeholder for the Dems in FL, so he will be a target of huge republican efforts to unseat him. The strongest challenge would definately be the one from outgoing Gov. Bush, but he has declined any interest in the race. Other strong opponents are Lt. Gov. Jennings and AG Crist (if they don't run for Gov.), Reps. Harris, Brown-Waite, Weldon, Foley or Feeney.
My take for now: likely Republican (if Gov. Bush runs)
No clear favorite (if there is another strong contender)
Theopen race for Gov. should be interesting even though there comes no strong democratic candidate to mind. The only interesting name is Betty Castor, and it is unclear whether she runs again. Republican candidates are lt. Gov. Jennings and AG Crist.
My take for now: leans Republican
GA: no senate contest for the dems to lose this time, but Gov. Perdue is up for (re-)election. Possible democratic candidates for getting so much votes that not even Diebold can do anything about it are Lt. Gov. Taylor and SoS Cox. Both are strong candidates, but they'll have to avoid a bloody primary and overcome a strong republican tilt in the state
My take for now: leans Republican
HI: Sen. Akaka turns 82 in 2006 so a retirement is probable. Possible dem. replacements are Reps. Abercrombie and Case, Stephen Yellin also names St. Sen. Hanabusa (http://yellinreport.blogspot.com/2004/11/one-week-later-my-trip-to-dc-dealing.html). Possible republican candidates other than Gov. Lingle seem not strong enoughto overcome the dem. hold on the state. They includes Lt. Gov. Aiona, House Min. Leader Fox and Sen. Min. Leader Hemmings.
My take for now: Safe Democratic (if Sen. Akaka runs for reelection)
likely Democratic (if Gov. Lingle doesn't run in an open seat)
No clear favorite (if Gov. Lingle runs)
Gov. Lingle herself faces the end of her first term in 2006, Rep. Case could be her opponent. Other possible candidates are Sen. Pres. Bunda and House Speaker Say.
My take for now: leans Democratic(if Rep. Case runs or Gov. Lingle doesn't run)
No clear favorite (in other cases)
ID: no senate contests, Gov. Kempthorne is up for reelection (no term-limits in ID ? ). I don't know if he will retire or who could be a possible dem. challenger, he or she would probably not have any chance if Kampthorne retires or not.
My take for now: Safe Republican
IL: no senate contest here, but Gov. Blagojevich is up for reelection. He is unpopular at least among dems in Springfield. So he faces the possibility of a serious primary challenge, most likely from AG Madison. A bloody primary is the only way to give the likely republican nominee State Treasurer Baar Topinka a shot in this race.
My take for now: likely Democratic
IN: Sen. Lugar turns 74 in 2006, so a retirement is possible. This race should only become interesting if moderate Lugar plans to retire, in that case fmr. Gov. Kernan or fmr. Rep. Hill could be dem. candidates. Possible republican replacement candidates could be AG Carter, SoS Rokita or Reps. Chocola and Buyer.
My take for now: Safe Republican (if Lugar runs again)
leans Republican (if he retires)
IO: no senate race, but Gov. Vilsack is up for reelection (no term-limits). Should he retire, possible replacements would be Lt. Gov. Pederson, AG Miller or SoS Culver. Possible republican candidates are State Auditor Vaudt or one of the Reps. Gov. Vilsack should get a decent challenge, but he also should overcome it.
My take for now: leans Democratic
KS: no senate contest, Gov. Sebelius is up for reelection, she is popular but she has to overcome the republican tilt in the state, a possible challenger could be AG Kline or SoS Thornburgh.
My take for now: leans Democratic
KY: no races
LA: no races
ME: Sen. Snowe is up for reelection, turning 59 in 2006 there is little chance of a retirement. This would only be possible if moderate Snowe would get too frustrated over the course of her party. There's no indication that this is more than wishful thinking. As much as anyone says that she as an R-Sen. from a blue state should be a target, I don't see a any credible contender who would take the task and have the chance to win. I don't think she is vulnerable.
My take for now: Safe Republican
Gov. Baldacci is also up for reelection. In this race I don't see a credible republican contender, longshots for Sen. Min. Leader Davis and House Min. Leader Bruno.
My take for now: likely Democratic
MD: Sen. Sarbanes turns 73 in 2006, so a retirement should be possible, but Stephen Yellin says he'll stay. A strong challenge, possibly from Lt. Gov. Steele, is unlikely if Sarbanes stays on.
My take for now: Safe Democratic
Gov. Ehrlich faces reelection, and there are two strongdem. challengers. One of them is Baltimore mayor O'Malley, but I lost the other one. Can somebody help me? Either way, if the primary stays civil, we have a decent shot at this one given the democratic strength in the state.
My take for now: No clear favorite
MA: Sen. Kennedy turns 74, but Stephen Yellin again says he wil not retire. A strong republican challenge, possibly from Lt. Gov. Healey is unlikely if Kennedy stays.
My take for now: Safe Democratic
Gov. Romney should face a spirited opponent given his conservative approach in this liberal state. Possibilities are AG Reilly and SoS Galvin. But perhaps an outsider would be a good candidate as well as Romney campaign as such in 2002. But I have no idea who that could be.
My take for now: No clear favorite
MI: Sen. Stabenow is up for reelection after defeating then-Sen. and now-Energy Sec. Abraham in a very close race. Now Sen. Stabenow has the power of a popular incumbant, but that doesn't save her from getting a strong republican challenger. Given she is a first-termer, there should be a candidate for the republicans to look after. Dangerous could be fmr. Gov. Engler or Reps. Hoekstra, Rogers and Miller. MI is a state that became more democratic despite the tighter than expected presidential race in 2004, Stabenow shoiuld have an advantage.
My take for now: leans Democratic
Gov. Granholm is up for reelection. Possible challengers are SoS Land or AG Cox. Both should be no reason to defeat a popular Gov. like Granholm.
My take for now: likely Democratic
MN: Sen. Dayton was not as able as he should have been to raise his profile. HE defeated first-term-Sen. Grams with his own money and he will have to spend some more of it to defend his seat. Most likely republican challengers are Reps. Kennedy, Gutknecht and Kline. Dayton will have a tough race, no advantage for the incumbant here, I would say.
My take for now: No clear favorite
Gov. Pawlenty is also up for reelection. As much as I have heard he is not that popular. A possible democratic challenger is AG Hatch. But there might be an indipendent candidate as well, so that race is not that predictable.
My take for now: leans Republican
MS: Sen. Lott turns 65 in 2006, it's his forst race after losing the leadership post. He is rumored to retire. In that case the dem. could have a shot at this seat with the right candidate. fmr. AG Moore, fmr. Gov. Musgrove, SoS Clark or AG Hood could be those candidates. Republican replacements could be Lt. Gov. Tuck or Rep. Pickering.
My take for now: Safe Republican (if Lott runs)
leans Republican (if he retires with a strong dem candidate)
MO: Sen. Talent is up after completing Sen. Carnahans term. He should face a seriuos competition from fmr. State Auditor McCaskill, fmr. Gov. Wilson or fmr. Lt. Gov. Maxwell. It will be an uphill battle against an not unpopular incumbant in an increasingly republican state, but these candidates have the name recognition to make it a race.
My take for now: leans Republican
MT: Sen. Burns turns 71 in 2006 and a retirement is possible after his close reelection against now-Gov. Schweitzer 4 years ago. Given the improvements in the 2004 elections we should put up a strong challenger regardless of his retirement, possible candidates are AG McGrath and State Auditor Morrison.
My take for now: likely Republican (if Burns runs)
No clear favorite (if he retires)
NE: After his slight victory in 2000 Sen. Nelson will face a very hard challenge from term-limited Gov. Johanns. Nelson is very popular, but so is Johanns in this very republican state.
My take for now: leans Republican
There will be an open seat in the Gov. race, but I have no idea if there is a dem. who could make this a race.
My take for now: likely Republican
NV: Sen. Ensign is in his first term and given the efforts we made in this state and the improvements we achieved, we should challenge him. I would happily propose a strong candidate, but I haveNn't found one, so feel free to correct me when I say
My take for now: Safe Republican
Gov. Guinn is term-limited and even for this open race I don't see that strong candidates. Possibilities are Ass. Speaker Perkins, Sen. Min. Leader Titus and Las Vegas Mayor Goodman. Republican replacement candidates are Lt. Gov. Hunt and Rep. Gibbons.
My take for now: leans Republican
NH: Gov. Lynch's reelection is the only race here. As NH-voters don't vote their Gov.'s out after one term (as we saw in 2004) there should be no worry.
My take for now: likely Democratic
NJ: After Gov. McGreevey's resignation there is much speculation about Sen. Corzine running for his office. Others are incoming Gov. Codey or Rep. Andrews. He unlike the others should be an early favorite against the republican candidates like fmr. Sen. candidate Forrester, fmr. Gov. candidate Schundler or St. Rep. DiGaetano.
My take for now: Safe Democratic (if Corzine runs)
leans Democratic (if he doesn't)
Sen. Corzine is a shoo-in too if he would seek reelection. If he becomes Gov., he would appoint a successor who to fill out the last year of his term. With the power of incumbancy, that successor should be able to hold on in a state as democratic as NJ.
My take for now: likely Democratic (even if Sen. Corzine retires)
NM: Sen. Bingaman turns 63 in 2006, so a retirement should be unlikely. Strong republican opponents like Reps. Pearce and Wilson should not emerge as this would open up vulnerable house seats for us. Beside these federal office holders, the bench of republicans is thin as there are no republican statdewide office holders.
My take for now: Safe Democrat
Gov. Richardson is up for reelection. This election should tighten the democratic lock on the state despite the los in the 2004 presidential race. There is no credible republican challenger in sight, possibilities are Sen. Min. Leader Ingle, House Min. Leader Hobbs or House Min. Whip Thompson (I only mention him because he is far more handsome than the others). Gov. Richardson should be a shoo-in.
My take for now: Safe Democrat.
NY: Sen. Clinton will face a spirited challenge from republicans, no doubt abut that. Most likely is a fight against fmr. NYC mayor Giuliani or Gov. Pataki, other possible challengers are Reps. Sweeney, Fossella, Boehlert, Reynolds or King. Giuliani would be the strongest opponent, but Clinton should still be favorite.
My take for now: leans Democratic (against Giuliani, Pataki)
likely Democratic (against others)
Gov. Pataki is unlikely to seek a third term. AG Spitzer will be a formidable candidate againt any possible republican opponent like Giuliani, SoS Daniels, Sen. Maj. Leader Bruno or Reps. King or Sweeney.
My take for now: No clear favorite
NC: no races here
ND: Sen. Conrad faces reelection, aged 58 in 2006 there should be no reason for a retirement. ND is a republican state, still it seems doubtful that there will be a strong challenge, as there was none against fellow Sen. Dorgan in 2004. On the other hand all stattewide officeholders (all republican) were just (re-)elected in 2004, so even the bigger ones like Gov. Hoeven, Lt. Gov. Dalrymple, SoS Jaeger and AG Stenchjan could make the race without risking their office. Fmr. Gov. Schafer declined to run against Dorgan, no reason why he should change his mind and challenge Conrad.
My take for now: likely Democratic
OH: Sen. DeWine only turns 59 in 2006, no chance he will retire. The only possible credible challenge for him could come from the house delegation, Reps. Strickland, Kaptur and Brown come to mind. Hard to imagine though.
My take for now: likely Republican
Gov. Taft is quite unpopular, but also term-limited. Most interesting should be the republican primary for his replacement, with SoS Blackwell, Lt. Gov. Bradley and AG Petro as declared or possible candidates. With the lack of statewide officeholders the look for possible candidates for the dems goes to the cities, with Columbus mayor Coleman, Toledo mayor Ford and Cleveland mayor Campbell. With all the focus on moral values around the country God help us if Jerry Springer decides to run for any office.
My take for now: likely Republican
OK: Gov. Henry is up for reelection. He is popular in a very conservative state. He will get a decent opponent, like lt. Gov. Fallin or Reps. Cole, Istrook, Lucas or Sullivan. In the end, he should win.
My take for now: leans Democratic
OR: Gov. Kulongoski is up for reelection. Heavily favored in 2002, he managed to almost get beaten by uber-conservative Kevin Mannix in the race to succeed outgoing Gov. Kitzhaber. But as an incumbant and with a nuch bluer fashion of the state after 2004, he should be favored, possibly against House Speaker Minnis, House Maj. Leader Scott or Sen. Republican Leader Beyer.
My take for now: likely Democratic
PA: Sen. Santorum is up for reelection. Mentioning this should be enough for any dem who has problems with getting enthusiasm about the 2006 election. PA turned bluer in recent years, Santorum almost lost to Rep. Klink, a less than impressive candidate, in 2000 and this year, uber-popular Gov. Rendell is on top of the ticket. Sen. Santorum should be in deep trouble, but there is still some Alabama in between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Let's see what republicans do to Sen. Specter in regard to the Judiciary chair and if it has any effect on the PA races. Strong democratic candidats are outgoing State Treasurer Hafer (a fmr. moderate Republican) and State Treasurer-elect Casey.
My take for now: No clear favorite
Gov. Rendell is up for reelection, it's hard to see Reps. English, Hart, Shuster or Peterson would give up their seats for a race like this. So the candidates could be outgoing AG Pappert, Sen. Maj. Leader Brightbill, Sen. Maj. Whip Piccola or House Speaker Perzel.
My take for now: likely Democratic
RI: Given Sen. Chafee's remarks about the reelection of President Bush, it's hard to imagine that he does not get a spirited primary challenge, most probably from Cranston mayor Laffey. If he survives that challenge staying a republican, he most likely will win reelection. His problem is not the generalelection voter, but the republican primary voter.
My take for now: likely Republican (if he survives)
likely Democratic (if he got beaten in the primary)
Gov. Carcieri irepublican governor in a very democratic state and thereby an obvious target for 2006. Possible contenders are lt. Gov. Fogerty, SoS Brown or AG Lynch. Gov. Carcieri seems to be too conservative for RI, but he still is the incumbant who didn't make too much mistakes
My take for now: No clear favorite
SC: Gov. Sanford is up for reelection, it should be hard to overcome a republican governor in a republican state. The only candidate to mount a serious challenge is education superintendent Tenenbaum, who almost defended Fritz Hollings' senate seat. She is the only Democrat with the name recognition to make it a race. Even with her, it should be difficult.
My take for now: likely Republican
SD: Gov. Rounds completes his first term, but there seems no democratic challenger in sight who could make this a race. I seriously doubt that Sen. Daschle will ever run for anything again.
My take for now: Safe Republican
TN: Sen. Frist has announced to retire to prepare a presidential bid. Otherwise he should be a shoo-in. Replacement candidates are Rep. Wamp and fmr. Reps. Hilleary and Bryant. Possible Dem. contenders are Reps. Ford, Gordon and Nashville mayor Purcell. Each could be a strong candidate in a more republican state.
My take for now: No clear favorite (if Frist retires)
Gov. Bredesen is up for reelection and should be a heavy favorite against any possible challenger, which should be either Wamp, Hilleary or Bryant.
My take for now: likely Democratic
TX: Sen. Hutchinson is another shoo-in if she decides to seek reelection. But she is also rumored to consider a primary challenge against Gov. Perry, which would open up this senate seat. In today's political environment the republican should be favored regardless of who he is, and it might be lt. Gov. Dewhurst or AG Abbott. Democrats have no shortage of possible candidates either, thanks to Tom Delay's power grab. So fmr. Reps. Bell, Frost, Stenholm, Sandlin or Lampson could all be possible candidates.
My take for now: likely Republican (if Hutchinson retires)
Sen. Perry can be sure of a primary challenge, if Sen. Hutchinson does not run, State comptroller Strayhorn will. He would be favored, and any winner of that primary will be favored in the general election. The Delay victims are possible candidates.
My take for now: leans Republican
UT: Sen. Hatch will turn 72 in 2006, so a retirement is possible. Republicans are not short of possible replacements, most probably Rep. Cannon or Bishop.
My take for now: Safe Republican
VT: Sen. Jeffords will probably not face a democratic challenger but Republicans will throw everything at him they are able to. But that's not that much in VT. Possibilities are lt. Gov. Dubie, House Speaker Freed or Sen. Min. Leader Bloomer.
My take for now: Safe Indipendent
Gov. Douglas is also up for reelection, let's see if Democrats and Progressives find a commom candidate next time as well and if he has better chances than Peter Clavelle last time. They should have a better chance together.
My take for now: leans Republican
VA: Sen. Allen will have a tough reelection fight, but only if Gov. Warner decides against a presidential run in 2008 and for a senate candidacy in 2006 instead.
My take for now: No clear favorite (if Warner runs)
Gov. Warner is term-limited , so the 2005 race will be between lt. Gov. Kaine and AG Kilgore. With a moderate and popular candidate in a more purple state than before Kaine should have a decent chance, esp. with even more popular Warner by his side. But Kilgore is a tough opponent in a still republican state.
My take for now: No clear favorite
WA: Sen. Cantwell is up for reelection, and she will be a target for the republicans given her VERY narrow victory against Sen. Gorton in 2000. This time she is the incumbant and WA is an increasingly democratic state, but still she is vulnerable. Her luck is the lack of potential strong candidates inside the republican party. The only candidates who look strong enough for a really tough race are St. Sen. Rossi (if he loses the still undecided Gov. race from 2004) of fmr. Rep. Dunn, who regected a run against Sen. Murray in 2004, so it is not clear why she should decide otherwise in 2006.
My take for now: leans Democratic
WV: Sen. Byrd will turn 89 in 2006, so a retirement is likely. He will win with 80% of the vote if he runs again, but an open seat would be hard to defend in increasingly red WV. The republican candidate should than be Rep. Moore Capito, and sh would be a slight favorite against any democratic opponent, which could be Reps. Mallohan and Rahall or AG McGraw.
My take for now: leans Republican (if Byrd retires)
WI: Sen. Kohl will turn 71 in 2006, so a retirement is possible. Possible republican candidates are Reps. Green and Ryan or State Treasurer Voight. It doesn't seem likely that they will run if Kohl does. Possible democratic candidates are lt. Gov. Lawton, SoS LaFollette and AG Lautenschlager. The 2004 results showed that the state was more democratic than before, but that could be given to the high turnout. In an open race the democrat wouold have only a slight advantage.
My take for now: No clear favorite (if Kohl retires)
Gov. Doyle is up for reelection. His forst term was not that impressive so he could be a target for the republicans. His strongest opponent would be fmr. Gov. and HHS-sec. Thompson. Others with less appeal are State Treasurer Voight, House Speaker Gard and Senate President Lasee.
My take for now: No clear favorite (against Thompson)
leans Democratic (against any other)
WY: Sen. Thomas will be reelected if he runs again. As he will turn 73 in 2006, there is a possibility that he doesn't. Not as if that would dramatically increase democratic chances in this very republican state, as there is no credible candidate as Gov. Freudenthal will run for reelection instead of this senate seat. 2004 House candidate Ladd is a possibility. Republican replacement candidates are Rep. Cubin, SoS Meyer, State Auditor Maxfield and State Treasurer Lummis.
My take for now: likely Republican (even if Thomas retires)
Gov. Freudenthal is very popular, as an incumbant he should be favored even in a very republican state. His possible opponents are those statewide officeholders also mentioned as replacement candidates for Sen. Thomas.
My take for now: leans Democratic
So that's it for the time until 2006. Gaining ground in the senate should be very difficult as we have more to defend than republicans. Democrats have to defend 17 seats, Republicans 15 and Jeffords as an Indipendent. There seem to be 4 competitive (FL, MN, NE, WV) and 3 semi-competitive (MI, NY, WA) races for seats held by Democrats, while there are 3 competitive (PA, TN, VA) and 3 semi-competitive (MO, MT, RI) races for republican seats. Republicans mostly have to play defense only in republican friendly territory exept PA and RI, while Democrats face strong fights esp. in FL, NE and WV.
I think chances are much better on the gubernatorial level. Republicans have to defend 22 state house, while democrats hold only 16 offices in the races to come until 2006. Perhaps I'm overly optimistic about our chances here, but I see only 3 competitive (IO, VA, WI) and 5 semi-competitive races (AZ, KS, NJ, OK, WY) for democratic held state houses, in most of which the incumbants are really popular (AZ, KS, OK, WY) and only the political environment makes it competitive. Republicans have to defend there offices in 9 competitive (AL, AR, CO, CT, HI, MD, MA, NV, NY) and 6 semi-competitive (FL, GA, MN, RI, TX, VT) races. That should be a real advantage, so with the right candidates and the right political mood, we can make good improvements here, which are critically important for the redistricting battle after the 2010 census.
Oops, that was long, so this diary is only for election-addicts like myself. Whatever, if you have other thoughts, please share...