Q: What is the purpose of partybuilding in areas that probably won't support the party in the near future?
A: It has a trickle-down effect on neighboring districts; it presents a stronger vision of the party as a national force; and if you abandon a district in 2014, it's that much more unlikely that it's going to flip sides at some point before, say, 2034.
Here at DKE (and formerly at SSP), we tend to focus on swingier districts (PVIs of +/- 2, say) when discussing the topic of congressional elections. As an approach, this makes sense: the path to Speaker Pelosi (v2.0) more likely runs through David Valadao's CA-21 (D+1.3) than it does through, say, Kevin Brady's TX-08 (a laughably red R+28.1). On the other hand, the last time the Democrats held the House--and in every time before that--it was through a diverse national coalition of northern liberals, southern conservatives, and everything in between. Sure, 218 blue seats can probably be figured out without needing to spend resources in any non-swing districts; however, that's not a good way to build a longstanding majority coalition. Plus, it's just not as much fun.
In this diary, I want to look at where we may be able to pick off some less-obvious seats, or at least lay seeds for the future. Team Blue currently only holds four seats with a PVI redder than R+8.0 (Barrow, McIntyre, Rahall, Matheson); by my count, that number was at least quadrupled as recently as 2009, though I can't seem to find an exact dataset. My point is this: it's both fascinating and potentially useful to look at the less obvious targets for 2014. Howard Dean may not be leading the DNC anymore, but that shouldn't mean the death of something resembling a fifty state strategy.
This list is constrained to seats with a PVI greater than R+8.0. My methodology is pretty opaque--I looked at the available data to try and come up with a good list of some seats that, given the right conditions, could switch from R to D in 2014. Also note that % and "points" are interchangeable here; that is, "Romney got 55% more than Obama" = "Romney got 55 more points than Obama" = O+55=R.
As mentioned in the title, this is part one of a series (mainly because this is a lot of prose to digest at once). Please feel free to argue about any districts you think would fall under this category but aren't mentioned here; even if I plan to write about them in the future, the community's thoughts on this sort of a project are always productive! For now, though, I present to you my thoughts...
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