This diary is part of a series where I guestimate how congressional reapportionment will change in 2020 based on current trends. Obviously this is very hypothetical. The first diary was a democratic gerrymander of the state of Minnesota, which will lose a congressional district in 2020. The second focused on inter-mountain states that will gain a seat in 2020 (ID and UT which I’m sure will gain a seat, and MT, which has a chance).
While this was part of a larger project that would look at the national net change so that there are 435 seats, there was nothing scientific behind it. To make things easier, I’m focusing instead just on states where there might be a change. There won’t be any scenarios where the premise is so ridiculous that it could really happen. For instance, Texas will not lose seats after the 2020 census.
In this diary, I focus on three states where I believe one seat may be lost after 2020. I am sure Ohio will lose one seat, as it has historically been losing at least one for several decades. I’m less sure about Nebraska and West Virginia, but their populations certainly grew at a slower pace than many other states in the 2000-2010 decade. There’s practically no chance any of these three states will gain a seat.
I use this page to look at county-level population changes to guide my redistricting:
http://2010.census.gov/...
Basically, as with the past at least 100 years, rural areas are losing population while suburbs and, more recently, cities gain people. I have purposefully under-populated districts today that I think will outpace other areas of a state by 2020 and over-populated districts that are probably going to lose people between now and 2020 in order to give a best guestimate on how the districts will look under population equity in 2020..
In West Virginia, while it’s very Democratic at the local level, it is increasingly Republican at the federal level. They don’t split counties there and there’s a decent chance of a Republican governor in 2020, so with two seats, I’m going to say one is Republican and one is Democratic.
In Nebraska, I can’t foresee Democrats having control of anything. In the 1990s they had Democratic governors and at least one senator, but the state is getting redder and either way, with two seats, I can’t envision a fair map even giving Dems a chance at a seat.
In Ohio, who knows what will happen. The state is always swingy. But if Kasich falls in 2014, hopefully the Dem can get re-elected in 2018 so we control the governor’s office for redistricting. Or, if Kasich is re-elected in 2014, I’d say Dems have a decent change of a pickup in 2018 given voters like to sway back and forth between the parties. The legislature could go either way. So I’d venture to guess Dems have the governor’s mansion at least. So we’ll either get a Democratic gerrymander or a court-drawn map. I’ve done a court-drawn map.
West Virgina
WV Statewide
With only 2 CDs, the only question in my mind was how to make this a communities-of-interest map. Do we draw a north-south map or east-west. The eastern panhandle and Marion and Monogalia counties are quite different from the rest of the state, which is dependent on coal and very white. Marion and Monogalia are diversifying, as is the eastern pandhandle as it gets some DC commuters (having lived in DC once, that seems like a heck of a commute but whatever, I digress). An east-west map would have separated the panhandle from Marion and Monogalia and connected the eastern pandhandle with eastern coal country counties. That didn’t make sense to me. So I went with north-south. I used the 2010 senate race numbers to assign the lean category.
1st CD (blue)
Since the panhandle and Marion and Monogalia counties are growing faster than the rest of the state, this CD is under populated by 32,000 people. If anything, it probably should be under-populated more.
Manchin: 52.8%
Raese: 47.2%
David McKiney lives here. If he’s still around in 2020, he’d probably be favored, as this is the more conservative of the two districts. In an open-seat situation, given West Virigina’s rightward shift, this is probably Lean R by 2020.
2nd CD (green)
Manchin: 56.9%
Raese: 43.1%
This CD is more historically democratic. If they are around in 2020, Capito and Rahall are matched against each other here. Capito is tough but Rahall survived 2010. It will still have a local Democratic lean though.
Capito vs. Rahall, Tossup/Lean D
Rahall vs. Other, Likely D
Open seat, Lean D
Nebraska
NE Dem Gerrymander
It’s not going to happen but I wanted to see what a Dem gerrymander would look like (within reason) in 2020 with 2 CDs. This obviously means a district that goes from Omaha to Lincoln. The first CD in this map includes all of Douglas, Saunders, and Lancaster counties, in addition to eastern (more liberal) Sarpy County. The district is still 55% Republican but only 50.4% McCain. Probably still Lean R. The 2nd CD is ridiculously Republican, at 66% GOP and 67.5% McCain. Since the first CD is much more urban than the second CD, it is under-populated by 45,000.
Realistically, the Republicans would never combine Lincoln and Omaha. They might even split Omaha and connect northern Omaha with all of northern Nebraska and southern Omaha with all of southern Nebraska. I didn’t think they’d go that far but I’m probably giving them too much credit. I thought about what might make sense. I did live one summer in Nebraska long ago so I had some direction but that was long ago so people from the area can probably give better insight. I thought it would make sense to make a CD with Omaha and Sarpy County, and the northeast corner of Nebraska.
NE Reality
1st CD (blue)
Omaha and northeast Nebraska. Because Omaha and Sarpy are still growing, this CD is underpopulated by 23,000.
58.6% Republican
55.4% McCain
Lee Terry would be the only rep here. Safe R with Terry, Likely R in open seat scenario
2nd CD (green)
Lincoln and the rest of Nebraska. Overpopulated by 23,000.
63.0% Republican
63.9% McCain
Fortenberry and Smith would be matched against each other, and this would be a Lincoln vs every place else in Nebraska district. With Lincoln and the environs gaining in population, I’d give Fortenberry the edge. He also has more seniority. This is safe R no matter who wins, or in an open seat scenario.
Ohio
OH Statewide
I assumed Ohio lost 1 CD in 2020 and a court-drawn map. I did not pay attention to where incumbents lived and attempted to keep counties as whole as possible. I did not pay attention to the Obama/McCain percentages until after the districts were drawn. As far as population changes, the Columbus area and Cinncinati suburbs are growing while much of the rest of the state is shrinking.
OH-1 & 2
1st CD (blue)
All of Hamilton County and Milford in Claremont County. Cinncinati is whole again, as it should be in any fair map. Since Hamilton County actually is growing very slowly (though this could change in the future since there is a recent trend of people moving back into cities), this CD is over-populated by 40,000.
50.2% Dem, 52.8% Obama
If Dems had a strong incumbent, this would be lean D. In any other scenario, I have to think it’s a true tossup.
2nd CD (green)
Cinncinati suburbs: All of Warren County, most of Butler and Brown Counties. The suburbs are booming and this CD is under-populated by 42,000 people. John Boehner lives here, but so does the guy who just beat Mean Jean. Boehner has a huge edge here.
36.7% Dem, 36.3% Obama
Safe R
3rd CD (dark Magenta)
I really didn’t know how a court would draw Columbus. Assuming the city continues to grow, it’s too big for one CD like Cincinnati. In the past Republicans split the city to dilute Dem influence but now the city is getting so blue with more people that the split is actually helping Dems be competitive in two districts. Given the size, I think a court might agree to split Columbus. The third district contains the western half of Franklin county, all of Pickaway County to the south, and almost all of Madison County to the west (except Plant City). Given the area’s booming population, the CD is under-populated by 56,000.
OH-3
52.2% Dem
52.0% Obama
I’m surprised the district isn’t more blue. The seat is lean D but Democrats probably need to keep their eye on this one all the time unless the D incumbent is very strong.
4th CD (red)
West-Central Ohio. This district contains the northern suburbs of Columbus and the counties west from there (including Springfield). The counties to the west are losing population while the northern suburban counties (Delaware and Union) are some of the fastest gainers in the state. On balance, I felt this CD would probably gain more people throughout the 2010-2020 decade, so I have under-populated the CD by 19,000 people.
OH-4
39.3% Dem,
37.3% Obama
Jim Jordan lives here. Whether he’s still around in 2020 or not, Safe R.
5th CD (yellow)
Toledo and Suburbs, northwest Ohio
Northwest Ohio is trending Dem (even in rural areas) but losing population. Given the population loss, this CD is over-populated by 32,000 people. Marcy Kaptur could still be around in 2020, although she’d be quite old by then.
OH-5
58.6% Dem,
56.7% Obama
Safe D
6th CD (teal)
The 6th has historically been the Appalachian district of Ohio. It is ancestrally Democratic but hostile to Obama. Instead of making it a thin, north-south district, I tried to take in some more western counties. It’s still a district that tends towards Appalachian culture but by going west instead of south, it gets a bit more Republican. The district is losing population and thus is over-populated by 48,000 people. Looks at the difference between Dem numbers and Obama.
OH-6
59.2% Dem
47.2% Obama
With the right Democrat, this seat would be Lean D. But given the rightward trend, with the current Republican rep or in an open seat situation, this seat is most likely
Tossup
7th CD (gray)
Southern Ohio. This seems like a new CD to me, connecting some outer Cincinnati exurbs with outer Columbus exurbs. Because of high rates of growth in Brown (Cinncinati) and Fairfield (Columbus) counties, I under-populated this CD by 51,000. With the exurbs growing, I think this CD will get more red over time.
OH-7
49.2% Dem
41.2% Obama
Lean R now, likely or Safe R by 2020
8th CD (slate blue)
North-Central Ohio. Contains all of Lorain and Erie counties, and the western and southern portions of Cuyahoga County. A great district for Betty Sutton, this district is losing population in Erie and Cuyahoga counties but Lorain is growing at a good clip. Given that, it’s under-populated by only 4,000 people.
OH-8
60.3% Dem
54.2% Obama
Safe D
9th CD (cyan)
Inner-central Ohio. This has some Toledo suburbs but it’s mostly a rural district capturing most of northern Ohio below Lake Erie. Area is ancestrally very Republican. Today, this would be incumbent-less. Area is certainly losing population so it’s over-populated by 12,000 people.
OH-9
45.2% Dem
41.5% Obama
If northwest Ohio does become more competitive over time, this might move into the Likely to Lean R category. But I’m not sure that will happen, so the 9th CD is
Safe R
10th CD (pink)
I believe this area is historically the 3rd CD but in the 2010 round, this became district 10. Dayton and suburbs, including some northern parts of Butler County. Mike Turner is very strong in the Dyaton area so this is safely his district. But he may not be around in 2020.
OH-10
48.0% Dem
48.2% Obama
Safe R with Turner, Lean R without Turner (I suppose people could argue for Tossup and I would understand that)
11th CD (chartreuse)
Without a ridiculous gerrymander, we cannot get a black-majority district in Ohio. And since the area is not covered by section 8, I didn’t try to create a black majority district. The 2010 redistricting round had Republicans taking black areas of Cleveland and connecting them to black area of Akron. Ridiculous. This CD contains all of Cleveland and immediate eastern and western suburbs. It’s still heavily Democratic; I probably could have split Cleveland but I don’t know if that’s been done historically. This area of Ohio is losing a lot of people so I have over-populated this the most, by 65,000 people.
OH-11
80.0% Dem,
78.9% Obama
43.3% Black (46.4% white and 6% Hispanic)
It’s not plurality black but I think African Americans would dominate the Dem primary and an African American would likely break through. And I’m guessing the whites in this area have no problem voting for an African American candidate. So I think there’s a very good chance this will still be represented by an African American.
Safe D
12th CD (cornflower blue)
Back to the Columbus area, where the 12th CD has historically been. As I mentioned in my write-up to the 3rd CD, Columbus is growing at quite the clip compared to the rest of the state. This is almost as under-populated as the 3rd CD, at 56,000 since Columbus and Licking County are growing quite rapidly. Eastern half of Franklin County and all of Licking County. More Democratic than the 3rd CD since Licking County isn’t quite as red as Madison and Pickaway counties.
OH-12
58.9% Dem
60.4% Obama
Safe D
OH 13, 14, 15
OH 13, 14, 15 up close
13th CD (salmon)
Youngstown and Canton. With northeast Ohio losing population, it made sense to me to combine these two towns that have been separated even if geographically they are close (their counties touch one another). While the cities are large, the counties they are in are losing population and while their suburban areas are growing, this may be the CD I most easily got wrong in terms of population trends: it’s under-populated by 50,000. Northeast Ohio probably just needs to lose a district and maybe I’ll re-do Ohio at a future point. This CD also includes Wayne and the southern half of Portage County, which is growing.
60.2% Dem
54.3% Obama
Safe D (we could get someone more Liberal than Tim Ryan here, not that he’s not Liberal)
14th CD (olive)
Northeast Ohio
Probably could be combined with Youngstown instead of eastern Cleveland suburbs. Since it’s losing population it is over-populated by 16,000 people. Steve LaTourette is a goner no matter how liberal he tries to get.
57.1% Dem
52.5% Obama
Lean D with LaTourette, otherwise Likely D
15th CD (dark orange)
This CD contains all of Summit County (where Akron is) except the northeast corner, Medina and Ashland counties. The district went west from Akron given the issues I had in creating districts in northeast Ohio in general, which is losing population. Medina County grew faster than the rest of the state in 2000-2010 and the CD is under-populated by 34,000 people. In this district, the Rep would be from Akron. Not sure if anyone lives here.
59.4% Dem
53.8% Obama
Likely D
So the overall count for Ohio as a court-drawn map with 15 CDs is:
5 Safe R (assuming Turner is still around in the Dayton area and the new 7th CD trends right)
5 Safe D
2 Likely D (including the 14th)
1 Lean D
2 Tossup (including the 6th)
