Democrats currently control the Maine State Senate by a 21-14 margin. As is the case in all of New England, all seats are up for re-election every two years. Here’s how I’d rate them.
District 1 (northern Aroostook): This district voted for Trump by 7 percent, but incumbent Troy Jackson (D), the President of the State Senate, won re-election 61-39 in 2018. He is being challenged by Republican Brian Schaefer of Winterville Plantation, who appears to be the Director of Facilities Management at the University of Maine — Fort Kent. Schaefer seems to be a third- or fourth-tier candidate, and so shouldn’t pose much of a threat to Jackson, who fits his district very well. Likely D.
District 2 (southern Aroostook): This district voted for Trump by a punishing 62-32 margin, Trump’s second-best district in the whole state (just behind the 4th), yet somehow it’s represented by a Democrat, Michael Carpenter. Carpenter only won re-election 51-49 in 2018, and this year he faces a stronger candidate — House Minority Whip Harold “Trey” Stewart of Presque Isle. Stewart is one of the strongest candidates the Republicans could run here, and considering how red the district is, I’ve got to say that Stewart is probably favored to defeat Carpenter. Lean R.
District 3 (Somerset): This district voted for Trump 56-37 and is represented by first-term Republican Bradlee Farrin, who won 60-40 in 2018. This year he faces Democrat Katherine Wilder of Norridgewock, a local school board member who lost a state House race 57-43 in 2018. Farrin will most likely win easily. Safe R.
District 4 (Piscataquis and part of Penobscot): This district is the reddest district in Maine, voting for Trump 62-32. The Republican incumbent here is Paul T. Davis of Sangerville, who won re-election 66-34 in 2018. He first faces a primary with former state senator Doug Thomas of Ripley, who Davis himself ousted in the 2014 primary. The winner of the primary will face Democrat David Ziemer of Orneville Township, who has run for this seat previously and been crushed. This year won’t be any different. Safe R.
District 5 (Orono, Old Town, and Millinocket): This district is one of the most consistently Democratic districts in Maine, having elected only Democrats for more than 20 years. It voted for Clinton by a 48-44 margin in 2016. The incumbent here, Democrat James Dill of Old Town, won re-election 56-37 in 2018, with the remaining 7 percent going to a Green candidate. This year, Dill faces Republican Christian Ireland of Howland. When Googling Ireland’s name, the first thing that comes up is a court order affirming Ireland’s conviction on charges of drug trafficking. Needless to say, he poses no threat to Dill. Safe D.
District 6 (Washington): This district voted for Trump by a 55-38 margin, and first-term Republican incumbent Marianne Moore of Calais is running for re-election. Her challenger is Democrat Jeffrey Lovit of Addison, a local lawyer. Considering that Moore won in 2018 by a larger-than-expected 61-39 margin, she probably has very little to worry about. Safe R.
District 7 (Hancock): This 53-41 Clinton district is represented by first-term Democrat Louis Luchini of Ellsworth, who won by a dominating 64-36 margin in 2018. Two Republicans filed to challenge him — former state senator Brian Langley, who represented the district for 8 years and was known as a moderate, and local used car dealership owner John Linnehan, both of Ellsworth. It’s hard to see this district turn red even if Langley is the Republican nominee — Luchini won in 2018 by a much larger margin than Langley ever won by. Luchini has a strong base in Ellsworth, the largest town in the district, and it’s very difficult for me to see Langley winning it by anywhere near as big a margin as he’d need. Safe D.
District 8 (Bucksport, Brewer, Lincoln): This district voted 53-39 for Trump, and is represented by Republican Kim Rosen of Bucksport, who won by 17 percent in 2018. Rosen first faces a primary challenge from state rep Lawrence Lockman of Amherst, who is termed out this year. Lockman is a horrible and despicable human being, so I hope Rosen defeats him. The Democrat waiting in the general election is local historian Trudy Scee of Brewer. If Rosen wins her primary (which I expect her to), then the general election will be Safe R. If Lockman somehow defeats her, then the general election may be more competitive.
District 9 (Bangor and Hermon): This 49-43 Clinton district is open, as Democratic incumbent Geoff Gratwick is term-limited. There are two Democrats running: Joseph Baldacci, a Bangor city councillor and brother of former Governor John Baldacci, and Victoria Kornfield, a term-limited state rep. The Republican candidate is John Hiatt, the Penobscot County Treasurer. County offices in Maine are very low-profile, so most voters won’t know who Hiatt is beforehand. Both of the Dems are strong candidates, and either one would be favored, but an upset by Hiatt cannot be completely ruled out. Likely D.
District 10 (outer Penobscot): This district voted 59-34 for Trump, and is represented by Republican Stacey Guerin, who won her first term by a 66-34 margin in 2018. The Democrat facing her is Frederick Austin of Newport, who has run for state rep numerous times and lost by wide margins every time. Guerin will win in another landslide. Safe R.
District 11 (Waldo): This district voted for Clinton by about a half a percent. First-term Dem Erin Herbig is not running for re-election, in order to become the city manager of Belfast. Three Democrats filed for this seat: Glenn Curry of Belfast, who ran for this seat in 2012 and lost 54-46; Charles Pattavina of Winterport, an emergency medicine doctor; and Robyn Stanicki of Belfast. All three candidates seem like second- or third-tier — this is definitely a race where the Democrat’s not running for re-election reduced Dem chances of victory. The Republican here is Duncan Milne of Liberty, an ex-Colonel in the Marines — he’s clearly not a top-tier candidate either. This is a tough race to handicap since none of the candidates are elected officials, but I’ll say Lean D.
District 12 (Knox): This district voted 55-39 for Clinton, and re-elected its Democratic incumbent, Dave Miramant of Camden, by a 63-37 margin in 2018. He’s being challenged by Republican Gordon Page of Owls Head, a local nonprofit leader. Page is a fairly good candidate, but Miramant hasn’t done anything to piss off his voters, and it’s very hard for me to see an incumbent in such a blue district losing. Safe D.
District 13 (Lincoln): This district voted for Clinton by 59 votes — about 0.25%. In 2018, it re-elected its Republican incumbent, Dana Dow of Waldoboro, by a 51-49 margin. This district consistently sees very close races, and this year looks like another one. Challenging Dow is Democratic state rep Chloe Maxmin of Nobleboro. Maxmin is undoubtedly to the left of the district, but she’s also to the left of her state House district, and that didn’t stop her from winning it in 2018. Being known in the rural, inland towns of the district will help Maxmin. This is, as usual, a top-tier race. Tossup.
District 14 (southern Kennebec): This district voted for Trump by about 2.5%, and re-elected its Democratic incumbent, Shenna Bellows of Manchester, by a 58-42 margin in 2018. This year, Bellows faces a primary challenge from Danielle Grondin-Stevens of Winthrop, a chiropractor. The Republican waiting in the general election is Mark Walker, the mayor of Hallowell. (Hallowell is a heavily Democratic town — this is the problem with nonpartisan local elections, they allow Republicans to gain footholds in Democratic towns to ultimately run for higher office.) If Bellows wins her primary, she’ll be favored in the general, but Walker could also win. Lean D with Bellows, Tossup with Grondin-Stevens.
District 15 (Augusta area): This district voted 49-44 for Trump, and elected Republican Matthew Pouliot of Augusta to the state senate in 2018 by a 57-43 margin. This year, Pouliot is challenged by Democrat Kalie Hess of Augusta, a local leader and pro-immunization activist. There’s a lot of support for that position (as shown by the recent ballot referendum which affirmed Maine’s new vaccination laws), but Augusta loves its moderate Republicans, and Pouliot will not be easy to dislodge. Likely R.
District 16 (Waterville area): This district voted for Trump by less than one percent, and re-elected Republican Scott Cyrway in 2018 by a similarly narrow 0.8%. This district is divided between Waterville, which is heavily Democratic, and the rural towns of Albion, Benton, and Clinton, which are heavily Republican. The two remaining towns of Winslow and Fairfield are the swing towns, and so far they’ve liked Cyrway. This year, Cyrway is being challenged by Democrat Hilary Koch of Waterville, a member of the city’s charter commission. This race will be close again, and considering how close it was in 2018 without presidential-year turnout, Dems could certainly win this. Tossup.
District 17 (Franklin): This district voted 49-43 for Trump, and elected Republican Russell Black of Wilton by a 9-point margin in 2018. This year, Black faces a rematch with the woman he defeated in 2018 — Democrat Jan Collins of Wilton. This district, like the 15th, also has a long history of electing Republicans, and Black is favored for a second term. Likely R.
District 18 (Oxford): This heavily WWC, quickly Republican-trending district voted 52-39 for Trump (after going 57-39 for Obama in 2012), and its Republican incumbent, Lisa Keim of Dixfield, won re-election in 2018 by a larger-than-expected 65-35 margin. This year, she faces Democrat Gabriel Perkins of Bethel, the executive director of Mahoosuc Pathways, a local outdoor recreational organization. Perkins’ level of success will depend on whether or not he can connect with those WWC Obama/Trump voters in places like Rumford and Mexico. The trends here, along with Keim’s massive victory in 2018, do not bode well. Likely R.
District 19 (southern Oxford, Bridgton): This district voted 53-39 for Trump, and it is an open seat, as Republican incumbent James Hamper is term-limited. Democrats are running Katherine Branch of Paris, a yoga studio owner. Republicans are running Richard Bennett of Oxford, a former state senator and chair of the Maine Republican Party. Bennett is a more experienced politician, and that, plus the fact that the district leans Republican, indicates to me that he is favored. Likely R.
District 20 (Auburn area): This district voted for Trump by 7 percent, but Democrat Ned Claxton narrowly picked it up for the Dems in 2018. This year, Claxton faces Republican Matthew Leonard, a local businessman and former Chamber of Commerce head. Auburn leans to the left, while the four surrounding towns in the district are more Republican, and this is going to be a close race. Tossup.
District 21 (Lewiston): This district voted 49-44 for Clinton, and Democratic incumbent Nate Libby won re-election 60-40 in 2018. This year, Libby faces Republican Timothy Gallant, a Congressional staffer. This district is a reliably Democratic one (though slowly trending Republican), and Libby should be fine. Safe D.
District 22 (rural Androscoggin): This WWC, Republican-trending district voted 58-35 for Trump, and elected Republican Jeffrey Timberlake to his first term in 2018 by a 63-37 margin. This year, Timberlake is being challenged by Democrat Martha Poliquin, a former state rep candidate who lost by 21 percent in 2018. Timberlake won’t have any issues here. Safe R.
District 23 (Sagadahoc): This district voted 49-43 for Clinton, and re-elected Democrat Eloise Vitelli 58-42 in 2018. This year, Vitelli faces Republican Holly Kopp of Topsham, a local school board member. The only time this district went Republican in the past decade is when a Green candidate sucked up 10% of the vote, and no Green candidate is running this time, so I’d say that Vitelli is in good shape. Safe D.
District 24 (Brunswick area): This district voted 62-32 for Clinton, and its Democratic primary will be more interesting than its general election. The incumbent, Democrat Everett “Brownie” Carson, is not running for re-election, and two Democrats are running to succeed him — state rep Matthea “Mattie” Daughtry, and former state senator Stanley Gerzofsky. That primary will be an interesting one to watch. The winner will face Republican Bradford Pattershall of Freeport, a lawyer, and defeat him easily. Safe D.
District 25 (Falmouth/Yarmouth area): This district contains a series of upper-class, well-educated coastal suburbs between Portland and Brunswick, and has been trending to the left. It voted for Clinton by a 59-35 margin. The Democratic incumbent, Cathy Breen, won her first election in 2014 by an extremely close 10 votes, but has won by steadily increasing margins since then as her district moves to the left (62-38 in 2018). This year, Breen faces Republican Jennifer White of Gray, a local activist whose pet cause is for her section of town to secede and join neighboring Raymond (her section of town is cut off from the rest of Gray by Little Sebago Lake, and is closer to downtown Raymond). That probably won’t endear her to residents of the rest of Gray, never mind the wealthy, liberal coastal towns. Safe D.
District 26 (Windham, Sebago Lake area): This district voted for Trump by a 51-42 margin, but is represented by a popular moderate Democrat, Bill Diamond, who has never faced a close race here (he was totally unopposed in 2018). This year, he’s being challenged by Republican Karen Lockwood of Raymond, a member of her town’s Budget-Finance Committee. Diamond is a very strong incumbent, and won’t face any issues. Safe D.
District 27 (inner Portland): This is the most Democratic district in Maine, voting 79-15 for Clinton. Democratic incumbent Ben Chipman won in 2018 by a 75-25 margin against an Independent. No Republicans have filed for this seat (not that it would have made any difference). Safe D.
District 28 (outer Portland): This district voted 67-27 for Clinton, and Democratic incumbent Heather Sanborn won unopposed in 2018. No Republicans filed for this seat this year either. Safe D.
District 29 (South Portland and Cape Elizabeth): This district voted 68-27 for Clinton, and Democratic incumbent Rebecca Millett is term-limited, making this an open seat. Three Democrats have filed here, including one state rep, Anne Carney. A Republican, Stephanie Anderson, has also filed, but this district is so blue that they stand no chance. Safe D.
District 30 (Scarborough and Gorham): This district voted 52-42 for Clinton, and Democrat Linda Sanborn narrowly defeated a Republican incumbent 50.5-49.5 in 2018 to pick up the seat. Sanborn isn’t running for re-election. Instead, Dems are running Stacy Brenner of Scarborough, an organic farmer and small business owner, while Republicans are running Sara Rivard of Gorham, a chiropractor. Both candidates seem like second- or third-tier candidates, so therefore due to the lean of the district I’ll call this race Lean D.
District 31 (Saco area): This district voted 51-43 for Clinton, and Democratic incumbent Justin Chenette won re-election 66-34 here in 2018. This year, he is challenged by Republican William Gombar of Old Orchard Beach, a local businessman. Chenette is popular and this is a Democratic district — he has nothing to worry about. Safe D.
District 32 (Biddeford area): This district voted for Clinton by 8 percent, and re-elected its Democratic state senator, Susan Deschambault, by a 63-37 margin in 2018. This year, Deschambault faces Republican Robert Daigle of Arundel, an engineer and former state rep. Daigle’s not a bad candidate, but this is a reliably Democratic district, and I can’t see Deschambault losing. Safe D.
District 33 (Sanford area): This district voted 51-41 for Trump, and the Republican incumbent, David Woodsome of Waterboro, won re-election 59-41 in 2018. This year, Woodsome is challenged by Democrat Michael McKinney, who ran for the 19th district in 2018 and lost 58-42 to the Republican incumbent James Hamper. It would seem that McKinney moved to a neighboring town (his hometown in the 2018 election was listed as Hiram, but is now listed as neighboring Cornish) in order to live in the district that he’s running for. The 33rd is a little bit less Republican than the 19th, but McKinney seems to be carpetbagging, and Woodsome is a strong incumbent. Safe R.
DIstrict 34 (Berwick, Wells, Kennebunk): This district voted for Clinton by 196 votes, or roughly 0.75%. In 2018, it elected the popular Republican state rep from Wells, Robert Foley, over frequent candidate Thomas Wright of Berwick by a 52-48 margin. Foley is not running for re-election this year. The Republicans are running Michael Pardue, the town manager of Kennebunk, which is the most Democratic town in the district. Democrats are running Joe Rafferty, the football coach at Kennebunk High School. Both candidates are well-known, and this will be a close race. Tossup.
District 35 (York/Kittery area): This district is reliably Democratic, voting for Clinton by almost 20 percent. Democratic incumbent Mark Lawrence of Eliot won by 25 percent in 2018. Challenging him is Republican Bradley Moulton of York, a former one-term state rep who lost re-election in 2016 and lost again in 2018. Considering the blueness of the district and Moulton’s spotty electoral record, Lawrence will be fine. Safe D.
Here’s the overview:
Safe D: 5, 7, 12, 21, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 31, 32, 35 (14)
Likely D: 1, 9 (2)
Lean D: 11, 14, 30 (3)
Tossup: 13, 16, 20, 34 (4)
Lean R: 2 (1)
Likely R: 15, 17, 18, 19 (4)
Safe R: 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 22, 33 (7)
Since Democrats currently hold 21 seats, if the Tossups are split down the middle and every other district votes as expected, Democrats will hold the same number of seats. Republicans would have to sweep the Tossups and win two of the Lean D seats in order to gain control of the State Senate. This is unlikely, so I would put overall control as Likely Democratic.
