Michigan GOP state Rep. Todd Courser is at the center of one of the strangest scandals we've ever seen
Leading Off:
• MI-10: Just go ahead and read this story. It's insane. No, it's super mega crazy insanely insane. You have to read it. The whole thing. Did you really not click? Click now. Go read. Then come back here. We're not going to summarize it!
Okay, okay. Maybe you're reading this newsletter on the subway and there's no signal and you're just dying to know what's up. In that case, you should save the link for when you get back above ground. But maybe you're stuck on the subway because the power went out and you'll be there for who knows how many hours before you see the light of day again and so we'll take pity on you: The story in question involves two tea-partying Michigan state representatives, Todd Courser and Cindy Gamrat, who had an affair (they're both married—to other people—with kids), then tried to cover it up by asking an aide to anonymously mass-mail Republicans across the state with a fake smear letter claiming that Courser had been "caught behind a Lansing nightclub" paying for sex with another man.
Told you you'd want to click. Anyhow, the aide, Ben Graham, refused but sensibly realized something really messed up was up and recorded more than one conversation with Courser about this psychotic request. (He got fired not long after he declined to participate in this lunacy.) Those recordings made their way to the Detroit News, as did a copy of the email, which was sent out by lord knows who—though certainly at Courser's instigation, since much of the email matched up verbatim with things he told his Graham.
What the hell was Courser thinking? He called this absurd skullduggery a "controlled burn," and explained to Graham, "In a controlled burn, you do a little bit of truth mixed in with a lot of lies." Well, the burn went way, way out of control and has now incinerated Courser's career, along with Gamrat's. Graham advised Courser on tape to resign. He should have done so back then. It's impossible to imagine he won't have to do so now.
As for why this is appearing in the Digest, Courser had been mentioned as a possible successor to GOP Rep. Candice Miller, who is retiring at the end of this term. Suffice it to say he won't get mentioned again. But seriously, go read the piece.
Senate:
• GA-Sen: Democrats don't yet have a Senate candidate in Georgia, but it would be nuts not to have one, especially if Hillary Clinton were to make a play for the state's electoral votes. There's also a chance that GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson, who reaffirmed that he was running again after he was recently diagnosed with Parkinson's disease, changes course and opts against seeking another term. So it's welcome news that Rev. Raphael Warnock, the pastor of the famous Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, says he's considering a bid. The congregation is known as the place where both Martin Luther Kings held the pulpit, and Warnock is a prominent figure in the area.
Unlike the last Democrat who tried to win a Senate seat in Georgia, the centrist Michelle Nunn, Warnock has an unquestionably progressive approach to politics. But can a liberal black man win a statewide race in Georgia? It's easy to forget given all the unlikely places he did win (Indiana, North Carolina), but Barack Obama performed remarkably well in the Peach State in 2008, losing 52-47 to John McCain. And while he did a somewhat worse in 2012, he ran slightly closer to his nationwide margin than he had four years earlier.
Of course this is an extreme longshot even under the best of circumstances. But throw in some further demographic change plus maybe an open seat and perhaps an upset isn't completely out of the question.
• NV-Sen: It's time for an Obama Alert! One of the earliest POTUS sightings on the campaign trail will come in Nevada later this month, as the president heads to Las Vegas for a fundraiser with former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto, who is running to replace Sen. Harry Reid. Masto will almost certainly face GOP Rep. Joe Heck next year in a major showdown that could determine control of the Senate.
Gubernatorial:
• IN-Gov: On Friday, Democratic Superintendent of Public Instruction Glenda Ritz announced that she would drop out of the gubernatorial contest and seek re-election next year instead.
When Ritz entered the race in early June, she looked strong enough to deny 2012 nominee John Gregg a second shot at GOP incumbent Mike Pence. But things quickly went haywire when Ritz reported raising only $30,000 during the first half of 2015, far below Gregg's $1.76 million haul. Things only got worse when the media learned that Ritz may have raised some of that money during the legislative session, which is against state law and can result in a major fine. Ritz's camp said that they only deposited the checks during the session, but that's still against the rules. The Ritz campaign's financial problems very quickly killed any chance she had at beating Gregg, much less Pence, so it's no surprise she's calling it quits.
With Ritz out of the race, Gregg only faces state Sen. Karen Tallian in the primary, and Tallian's brought in even less money than Ritz. However, Tom Sugar, a former aide to ex-Gov. and Sen. Evan Bayh, says he's considering, and plans to decide by early September. Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott also expressed interest back in late June, though he's been quiet since then. But Gregg has a big head start and has the backing of plenty of unions, and it won't be easy for anyone to beat him in the primary.
• LA-Gov: State Rep. John Bel Edwards has had the Democratic field to himself for the entire race, but that may be about to change. On Thursday, New Orleans City Council President Jason Williams expressed interest in running for governor, saying he'll decide "very soon." (Disclosure: Jeff Singer briefly consulted for Williams in 2014.) There's been plenty of speculation that Williams will run for mayor in 2018 when Mitch Landrieu is termed out. But a gubernatorial bid comes completely out of left field, especially since Williams only won elected office last year.
As an African American hailing from the most Democratic area of the state, Williams could definitely shake up the contest if he gets in. Most polls have shown Edwards and GOP Sen. David Vitter taking the top two spots in the October jungle primary, with Republican Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne and GOP Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle usually lagging. But if Williams takes critical Democratic votes from Edwards, it could give Dardenne or Angelle a better chance to advance to a November runoff with Vitter instead.
To make things even more complicated, wealthy Democratic businessman John Georges has also been flirting with a bid in recent days. On Friday, Georges said that while he wouldn't rule out getting in, he "cannot see a scenario that I would run but I am flattered," so take that for what it's worth. Prominent African American attorney Tony Clayton, who describes himself as a conservative Democrat, also talked about running in late May, though he's been quiet since then. It's easy to get on the ballot in Louisiana, so we could see some other last-minute bids ahead of the Sept. 10 filing deadline.
It's unclear what Williams is thinking. It's possible he genuinely thinks he can win the governor's mansion: Williams decisively defeated a Landrieu ally to win his spot on the City Council, so he may be convinced that he can defy the odds again. But The Advocate's Jeff Adelson also speculates that Williams may just use a gubernatorial bid to raise his profile and get in touch with donors ahead of a mayoral campaign.
It's also possible that one of Vitter's Republican rivals is trying to convince Williams to go for it: While Williams says that he's been encouraged to run, he refused to say who was doing the encouraging or even what party they belong to. It's going to be tough for any Democrat to win in this conservative state, but a Williams bid could definitely be a shot in the arm for Dardenne or Angelle. Vitter is going to be hard to beat under any circumstances, but another Republican may be able to give him a more difficult time in a runoff in this conservative state than a Democrat could.
But before the field changes, we have to digest a very strange poll from Verne Kennedy of Market Research Insight conducted for Georges and several other businessmen. Kennedy finds Angelle leading Vitter 24-22, with Edwards at 20 and Dardenne at 13. (Georges was not tested in trial heats this time.) This is the first poll we've seen that shows Angelle advancing to the runoff or shows Vitter anywhere close to missing it.
A late June Market Research Insight poll for Georges gave Edwards a 30-24 lead over Vitter, with Angelle taking 14. There's really no obvious reason that Edwards would have suddenly collapsed while Angelle surged: Angelle has had the airwaves to himself for a while and while his name recognition has increased, he's never looked anywhere near this strong. It's also worth noting that a recent poll for the GOP pollster Triumph Campaigns, apparently independent of any other campaign, gave Vitter a more predictable 33-32 lead over Edwards, while Angelle was all the way back at 14. (Everyone seems to agree on Dardenne's numbers.)
So what's happening here? We'll want to see more polls to see if things have finally changed here, though of course new candidates may change the entire game first. It would be nothing short of extraordinary if Vitter didn't make it to the November runoff, and an Angelle-Vitter duel would also be worth watching. But right now, it looks like this survey is probably an outlier. It's also worth noting that Vitter and his allies haven't even dipped into their combined $9.4 million warchest. If Vitter is actually in danger, he should be able to prop up his numbers quickly.
We've also raised questions about Market Research Insight's accuracy in the past. Back in 2010, they gave Vitter just a 46-34 lead in the GOP primary (Louisiana briefly adopted partisan federal primaries before returning to the jungle primary): Days later, Vitter won renomination 88-7. That summer, they also found Republican Rep. Joseph Cao leading Democrat Cedric Richmond 51-26, months before he lost 65-33. Maybe something is finally happening here and Vitter is actually in real trouble, but we'll need a lot more evidence from more pollsters before we can say for sure.
House:
• FL-05: There are a ton of unanswered questions about Florida's new congressional map, and one of the biggest is the fate of Tallahassee's Leon County. Leon is a large and strongly Democratic area, and we don't know yet whether it will wind up in the new 5th District or be split between FL-05 and FL-02. (Because the new 5th needs to have a sufficiently large black population, it's very unlikely that Leon will stay whole in the 2nd.) On Wednesday, Florida Republicans unveiled a proposed map that divided Leon, and it can have major ramifications for both Democratic Reps. Gwen Graham and Corrine Brown.
Matthew Isbell writes that the proposed map would effectively dilute Tallahassee's power. Isbell estimates that 55 percent of registered Democratic voters would hail from Jacksonville's Duval County while only 25 percent would come from Leon. The 5th will be safely Democratic in any scenario, so the Democratic primary winner will be going to D.C.
Brown could face a primary challenge from an ambitious African American Tallahassee-area candidate like Mayor Andrew Gillum and while Brown starts out with little money, the Jacksonville-based congresswoman would have geography on her side. Graham, whose 2nd District is all-but-certain to become safely red under any scenario, would have the same problem if she ran against Brown instead, with the added hurdle of needing to win over an overwhelmingly black electorate (Brown is black while Graham is white).
Isbell argues that splitting Leon isn't necessary, and presents an alternate map that moves the entire county into the 5th. The difference would be massive: Isbell estimates that in his 5th, Jacksonville would make up 41 percent of the Democratic primary electorate while Leon would be 38. That would give Graham, Gillum, or another Tallahassee-area Democrat a much better shot at defeating Brown in the primary. Tallahassee politicians are pushing for a united Leon, but it's far from clear what will happen.
• FL-07, 10, 06: Longtime Republican Rep. John Mica currently sits in a Central Florida seat that Romney won 52-47, and he's looked safe for ages. However, his 7th District is likely to pick up plenty of Democratic voters under the new round of redistricting, and the first draft of the new map has Obama and Romney running roughly even here. Mica's not going to be easy to beat no matter what, but a competitive seat in a presidential year is just too good for Florida Democrats to ignore. Democratic political consultant Bill Phillips is reportedly considering challenging Mica, and other candidates could come out of the woodwork once things are more certain.
Of course, even if the final map stays more or less the same as the proposal, there's no guarantee that Mica will run in the 7th. Democratic pollster David Beattie speculates about what could happen in Central Florida with Politico, and he presents some intriguing ideas. The proposed map morphs Republican Rep. Dan Webster's conservative 10th District into a 61-38 Obama seat, making it unwinnable for the GOP in a presidential year. But Webster could stay in Congress if he moves into the new 7th, where he'd have a fighting chance.
Mica would also have an easy escape hatch if he in turn moved to the 6th, which Senate candidate Ron DeSantis has left open. The proposed 6th backed Romney 52-47, about the same as Mica's current seat. Of course, there are a few Republicans already running for the 6th: While the proposed 6th cedes the northern part of the seat to Ander Crenshaw's 4th, candidates who hail from the southern portion may just not be ready to get out of Mica's way.
It's also worth noting that Mica's not always a team player. During the 2012 round of redistricting, 72 percent of Mica's old seat wound up in the 6th, which had no incumbent. Mica could have easily run in the 6th and won the primary and general without breaking a sweat, but he instead decided to campaign in the 7th, where he lived and where fellow GOP Rep. Sandy Adams was running. Mica decisively dispatched Adams (who is currently running for FL-06), and he may be stubborn enough to stay in the new 7th no matter what. The NRCC also might pressure Mica to stay put, since he'd likely have an easier time defending a purple seat than Webster would. As with so many Florida redistricting questions, we'll just need to wait and see what happens.
• FL-13: A few weeks ago, Democratic state Rep. Dwight Dudley expressed interest in running for this seat even if it meant facing ex-Gov. Charlie Crist in the primary. But Dudley's backing down now, telling Creative Loafing that he "would not consider trying to run in a race where Charlie Crist is." Crist has said that he's going to run if the redrawn district includes his home, something that's all-but-certain to happen. Former Obama Administration official Eric Lynn has made it clear that he's staying in the contest regardless of what Crist does, but he's not going to have an easy time in a primary here.
• FL-21, 22: The first draft of Florida's new congressional map throws South Florida Democratic Reps. Ted Deutch and Lois Frankel into the same seat, but don't expect an incumbent vs. incumbent primary. The two members put out a joint statement saying that while they "fully intend to run for re-election," they won't oppose each other.
We of course don't know what the final map will look like, but it's possible that the two members could essentially switch districts. According to Matthew Isbell's extensive analysis, the proposed FL-21 includes much more of Deutch's district than Frankel's seat, but it also includes much of her Palm Beach County base. By contrast, the proposed FL-22 takes in much of Broward County, where Deutch is far better known than Frankel is. If the final map looks like this draft, the path of least resistance for both two members may be to swap seats. But the Democratic bench is strong in both counties, and an ambitious candidate could decide to run against a weakened incumbent. Both seats are likely to stay blue in any case.
• NV-03: When perennial GOP candidate Danny Tarkanian last ran for Congress back in 2012, he and has family were hit with a gigantic $17 million judgment stemming from a lawsuit over bad loans—loans that he himself had personally guaranteed. That debacle didn't necessarily play a direct role in his loss that year, but it was certainly an eye-catching sum of money, and it's the kind of thing a cunning opponent could readily exploit.
So with Tark running for the House yet again this cycle (albeit in a different district), we naturally wondered how that case resolved itself. There was no information available online, but Jon Ralston was inspired to dig in and found out the answer. Unsurprisingly, Tarkanian didn't exactly have $17 million lying around, so he was forced to declare bankruptcy and wound up settling the matter for just $525,000. (He emerged from bankruptcy protection earlier this year.)
Plenty of candidates are able to get past personal bankruptcies by seeking empathy from voters: Most of us fell on hard times during the Great Recession, right? But it's a little harder to wave away Tark's mess, given the amount involved and what it was for (an "equestrian destination resort" that went bust). So if state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson, the GOP's establishment candidate here, feels Tark's hot breath on his neck at any point, he might very well be inclined to bring up his opponent's poor business judgment on the campaign trail.
• NY-19: Both parties' recruitment efforts for New York's swingy 19th District have come up surprisingly dry to date. The only Democrat running is a dude who lives three hours from the district and says he wants to be the "Justin Bieber of Congress." Republicans, meanwhile, just landed their first candidate, a pretty anonymous businessman named Andrew Heaney who, in the prior decade, would occasionally drop five figures in donations to GOP candidates per cycle—nothing major, though.
However, state Assemblyman Steve McLaughlin, who'd expressed some interest months ago, now says his desire to run is "getting stronger by the day." Democrats would love McLaughlin to emerge as the Republican nominee: A couple of years ago, when Gov. Andrew Cuomo pushed new gun safety laws through the legislature, McLaughlin compared him to Hitler (and Mussolini and Putin, just to be safe). There are still a number of other Republicans considering, including former state Assembly Minority Leader John Faso (god is that a sucky job), so who knows if McLaughlin would really have a chance. Democrats can hope, but what they really need is a legit contender of their own.
Other Races:
• Nashville Mayor: Voters went to the polls Thursday for the non-partisan primary, and they gave us a bit of a surprise. Councilor Megan Barry and former Metro Nashville School Board Chairman David Fox secured the two spots in the Sept. 10 runoff, taking 24 and 23 percent of the vote respectively. Real estate tycoon Bill Freeman looked like the clear frontrunner until recently, but he fell just short with 21 percent. Freeman outspent the rest of the field, picked up influential labor endorsements, and led in most released polls. However, two late surveys showed a tight three-way contest between Barry, Fox, and Freeman, and that's what we ended up getting.
Freeman doesn't appear to have done anything wrong during the last few weeks of the campaign, and Barry and Fox may have just surged as voters paid more attention as Election Day neared. Barry is popular among progressives while Fox is the most conservative contender, giving them each solid bases of support in this crowded race. A super PAC funded by Fox's brother started spending late, which probably helped him get his name out: While Fox needed to apologize after the group attacked one of his opponents, the whole matter didn't keep him from advancing. Davidson County Criminal Court Clerk Howard Gentry took a distant fourth with 12 percent, with three other candidates bringing up the rear.
Unlike most of Tennessee, Nashville leans Democratic and Barry should start with the advantage. But off-year turnout is always unpredictable, and Fox has already begun portraying her as unacceptably liberal. We don't have much time before September's runoff, so we should see a lot of excitement packed into the next month.
• Toledo Mayor: On Friday, former Toledo Mayor Mike Bell announced that he would run to regain his old seat in this November's special election. Bell, a conservative independent, was defeated 56-44 in 2013, but he could have a shot in this crowded race.
Interim Democratic Mayor Paula Hicks-Hudson and independent Sandy Drabik Collins, the widow of former Mayor Mike Collins (who unseated Bell), are already running. Former Democratic Mayor Carty Finkbeiner looks likely to get in as well, and a few others could enter the contest before the Sept. 4 filing deadline. There will be no primary or runoff here: All the candidates will run on one non-partisan ballot, and the top vote getter will serve until the next regular election in 2017.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, and Daniel Donner.