Illinois Democratic Senate candidate Tammy Duckworth
Leading Off:
• IL-Sen: What the what? Local pollster Ogden & Fry just released a new survey of Illinois' Senate race, and they have Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth beating GOP Sen. Mark Kirk by a rub-your-eyes-and-look-again margin 44 to ... 27! Now, that's a lot of undecideds, and if both candidates were scoring in the 20s, we'd write this off as another useless poll of the sort that, say, Franklin & Marshall regularly churns out.
But Duckworth at 44 is quite plausible, at least in a vacuum; the only other poll of this matchup, from conservative pollster We Ask America, had her at 46 and Kirk at 45. That makes Kirk—the incumbent—taking just 27 in this latest poll downright shocking. Part of that low tally is because he's barely known, with a job approval rating of 17 positive and 31 negative. That means more than half of respondents don't even have an opinion of him, but seeing as Duckworth represents just a small fraction of the state while Kirk serves the whole thing, how could she possibly be anything but even lesser-known than he?
Now, whenever you see results like this, your skepticism should automatically dial up to 11. What's more, Ogden & Fry is a new firm without much of a track record. They first surfaced with their frequent polls of Chicago's mayoral race earlier this year, and while their final numbers were decent, they often did not offer respondents the option to say they were undecided. That's generally not considered a good practice, but on the other hand, they've wound up with a ton of undecideds here, which of course, as we've noted, leads to its own set of interpretive problems.
This is a classic case of needing to see further polling, but even if they're far off the fairway, there's no way Mark Kirk can feel good about these numbers.
Senate:
• AZ-Sen: One more big establishment figure has added his name to Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's growing list of supporters: ex-Rep. Ed Pastor, who had been Arizona's longest-serving Democrat in Congress until his retirement last year. Pastor's endorsement is particularly notable because his old 7th District is right in the back yard of Kirkpatrick's most likely primary rival, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, who represents the 9th; indeed, the turf is so similar that Sinema even contemplated switching districts after Pastor announced he was quitting. Sinema still hasn't made a decision on whether she'll seek to challenge Sen. John McCain, but the longer she delays, the more Kirkpatrick can cement herself as the consensus choice.
Gubernatorial:
• ME-Gov: Maine Democrats, some of whom have started calling for the impeachment of Republican Gov. Paul LePage, say they will not pursue an investigation until after the current legislative session adjourns on July 16. LePage has all but admitted that he threatened to withhold state money from a charter school for at-risk youths, Good Will-Hinckley, that had offered its presidency to state House Speaker Mark Eves, a Democrat; the school promptly rescinded that offer, prompting a massive outcry.
Good Will-Hinckley also released a statement that made LePage's interference plain. Said the school: "As fiduciaries faced with the loss of state and significant private funding, the very real financial consequences for the school made the Board's decision last Friday black and white." That "loss of funding" was entirely due to LePage's bullying.
In the meantime, lawmakers have a separate battle brewing with LePage over finalizing the state's budget. Even though Republicans control the Senate, both chambers have already united to override dozens of line-item vetoes by LePage, and they'll likely face down a final veto of the overall budget as well, lest the state government shut down. So when the end of the session rolls around, the already high tensions at the capitol will only be higher.
• VT-Gov, AL: Rep. Peter Welch, the one Democrat who probably could have cleared the field had he chosen to run to succeed retiring Gov. Peter Shumlin, has instead decided to seek re-election to the House. Welch's decision now means that a whole bunch of Democrats, including a couple of big names who'd been prepared to defer to him, could enter the race. The list is long and includes state House Speaker Shap Smith; former state Sens. Matt Dunne and Peter Galbraith; state Sen. Anthony Pollina; former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine; state Transportation Secretary Sue Minter; and state Agriculture Secretary Chuck Ross.
The roster of potential Republicans is much smaller, but heading it up is Lt. Gov. Phil Scott, who has had success in winning over Democratic voters. If Scott demurs, then former Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, 2014 nominee Scott Milne, and 2012 nominee Randy Brock could make a go of it.
House:
• FL-18: State Sen. Joe Abruzzo had been a possible Democratic contender for Florida's open 18th District, but he's opted to stay put and throw his backing to Palm Beach County Commissioner Melissa McKinlay. McKinlay faces fellow commissioner Priscilla Taylor in the Democratic primary; the GOP field is much busier, with five declared candidates and a whole bunch more still considering.
• FL-19: GOP Rep. Curt Clawson was only just elected to Congress last year, in a special election to fill the vacancy created when Rep. Trey Radel (himself only a freshman) left office after pleading guilty to cocaine possession. Despite his brief tenure, he's already attracted a possible primary challenge from Fort Myers Councilman Tom Leonardo, who is still mulling a couple of different possible races. Leonardo sounds like an old-school Republican: Previously, he said he found Clawson "embarrassing" because he'd "aligned himself with extremists." True as that may be, it's not usually a winning message in a GOP primary.
• IL-18: The GOP establishment did a nifty job in clearing a path for state Sen. Darin LaHood in the special election to replace disgraced Downton Abbey enthusiast Aaron Schock, with only conservative activist Mike Flynn putting up any kind of challenge. And it's not much of a fight: From April 1 through June 17, LaHood outraised his opponent by more than a 10-to-1 ratio, pulling in $717,000 to just $64,000 for Flynn. The Republican primary is on July 7; the winner will be a lock for the general, which is set for Sept. 10.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, and Daniel Donner.