Retiring Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin
Leading Off:
• VT-Gov, AL: After pulling off an embarrassingly close victory against Republican Scott Milne last year, Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin has chosen to retire rather than seek a fourth two-year term. Democrats have a very large bench here and we could see a crowded primary. However, by the end of Monday, two potential candidates stood out from the rest: state House Speaker Shap Smith and Rep. Peter Welch.
Smith wasted little time confirming that he's "seriously considering running," and will decide over the next few weeks. But Welch, who represents the entire state in the House, hasn't talked about his plans yet. His chief of staff says that the congressman is likely to run for re-election, though he acknowledges Shumlin's decision caught them by surprise. Welch ran for this seat way back in 1990, but he lost the general election 52-46 to Republican Richard Snelling.
Plenty of other Democrats could also seek the governorship. Even before Shumlin finalized his departure, former state Sens. Doug Racine and Matt Dunne talked about competing here. Both men ran against Shumlin in the incredibly-close 2010 primary, and they may want to get back in the game now. State Sen. Anthony Pollina, who was the Progressive Party's nominee in 2008, may also be interested in competing as a Democrat (Pollina won his post in the legislature in 2010 as both a Democrat and a Progressive thanks to the state's electoral fusion law). There's also been speculation that Secretary of Natural Resources Deb Markowitz (who also narrowly lost the 2010 primary), Secretary of Transportation Sue Minter, and Secretary of Agriculture Chuck Ross may run in a post-Shumlin environment.
Chittenden County State's Attorney T.J. Donovan, who represents the state's largest county and came close to unseating an incumbent attorney general in the 2012 primary, didn't respond to questions about his plans. However, Secretary of State Jim Condos says that he's happy in his current job, while Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger offered an unambiguous no. We're likely to see a number of other prominent Green Mountain State Democrats make their 2016 intentions clear soon but if Welch does seek the governorship, some of his would-be primary rivals could run for his open House seat instead. However, Shumlin would not be joining them: The departing governor made it clear in his announcement that he has no interest in going to D.C.
While Vermont is a heavily Democratic state, voters haven't been afraid to send Republicans to the governor's mansion. Lt. Gov. Phil Scott has been heavily courted and he's been talking about running regardless of what Shumlin did. Milne has also been eyeing another campaign, though he'll likely be shoved aside if Scott gets in. Ex-state Sen. Randy Brock, who lost to Shumlin 58-38 in 2012, also says he'll decide what to do at the end of the summer.
Senate:
• CO-Sen: Things have been pretty chaotic on the GOP side ever since Rep. Mike Coffman ruled out a campaign against Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet last week. A number of Republicans have been mentioned as potential candidates, but only state Sen. Ellen Roberts has shown any real excitement so far. (El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn is actually running, but no one seems to care). Over at The Hill, Jonathan Easley rounds out the potential Republican field, but it's almost all people who either don't seem interested or are very low on the political totem pole.
We get a few names we haven't heard before, though so far they're all at Great Mentioner status only. They include ex-state Sen. and 2014 gubernatorial also-ran Mike Kopp, conservative radio host Dan Caplis, and businessman Wil Armstrong, whom Coffman beat 40-33 in the 2008 GOP primary for the old version of CO-06. We also have the usual suspects like state Attorney General Cynthia Coffman (the congressman's wife), who was only elected last year; state Treasurer Walker Stapleton, who seems more interested in a 2018 gubernatorial bid; and Arapahoe County District Attorney George Brauchler, who is busy prosecuting the 2012 Aurora theater shooting suspect and also appears more likely to run for governor next cycle.
• LA-Sen: With Sen. David Vitter continuing to look like the frontrunner in this fall's gubernatorial election, attention has turned to which Republican Vitter may choose to fill his Senate seat. It's been clear for a while that Rep. Charles Boustany is hoping to win a promotion to the upper chamber but he hasn't said anything publicly until now. And while Boustany still hasn't confirmed that he wants to go to the Senate, he admitted that he's preparing for his next race "for whatever campaign it is." Boustany is backing up his talk with action, upping his fundraising and using his support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership to increase his profile. Fellow Rep. John Fleming has been jockeying for the Senate appointment much more aggressively while state Treasurer John Kennedy is also believed to be very interested.
• NC-Sen: Harper Polling (R): Richard Burr (R-inc): 49, Kay Hagan (D): 42; Burr: 50, Dan Blue (D): 36.
• NH-Sen: It's far from unheard of for outside groups to air commercials against prospective candidates to deter them from running, but they usually don't run for $1 million. So it's pretty notable that the conservative organization Impact America Action is throwing that much down on a three-week ad campaign against Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan, who is easily the DSCC's top choice to face Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte. The spot portrays Hassan as a big spending/ big taxing libural, and we can definitely expect more of the same if she challenges Ayotte (and perhaps even if she seeks a third term instead).
• PA-Sen: What is it with polls from Pennsylvania schools that always seem to find huge numbers of undecideds? Franklin & Marshall is the worst offender, but Robert Morris University just contributed to the trend with a new poll that has Democratic ex-Rep. Joe Sestak up 34-29 on GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, meaning 37 percent of voters haven't yet made up their minds. Other firms have generally clocked in with undecided of around 15 to 20 percent—except for F&M, which also had an identical 37 percent undecided back in March. Come on, guys. Get it together.
House:
• AZ-01: Both parties are waiting for the U.S. Supreme Court to decide if the state's congressional map will stay intact, or if the GOP-led state legislature will be allowed to draw up their own boundaries. If the court rejects the GOP, we're expecting a competitive race for this open 50-48 Romney Northern Arizona district, and one potentially formidable Democrat recently expressed interest.
State Sen. Barbara McGuire has narrowly won a 53-45 Romney legislative district twice, including during the 2014 GOP wave, so she has experience prevailing under tough conditions. McGuire admits she's waiting on the Supreme Court, but her statement (among other things, she calls herself "battle-tested") makes it clear which way she's leaning. The state GOP is also expected to target her seat, so it's not like she'd avoid a tough race if she stayed in the legislature. Several other Democrats as well as more than a few Republicans are also eyeing this district.
• CA-24: On Sunday, retiring Rep. Lois Capps endorsed Santa Barbara County Supervisor Salud Carbajal. Carbajal faces fellow Democrat Santa Barbara Helene Schneider in next year's top-two primary, but Schneider hasn't had a good relationship with local politicians in a while. If Capps' backing helps Carbajal consolidate Democratic support, it could allow Team Blue to avoid a top-two disaster where state Assemblyman Katcho Achadjian and businessman Justin Fareed grab both general election spots in this Obama 54-43 seat.
• FL-06: To no one's surprise, former New Smyrna Beach Mayor Adam Barringer announced that he would run for this safely Republican open seat. Barringer is the first official candidate but he won't be the last, with ex-Rep. Sandy Adams shopping for a home in the district and outgoing Duval County Sheriff John Rutherford likely to jump in as well. Several other Republicans could also seek this coastal district, which includes suburbs of Jacksonville and Orlando.
• FL-18: Two more Republicans are in the race for this open light-red seat, bringing the grand total to five. Brian Mast, a decorated veteran who lost both his legs in Afghanistan, has been an active speaker at local Republican events, so he may have the connections he'll need. Attorney Rick Kozell has worked for a conservative D.C. law firm and is promoting himself as someone who has already fought the Obama Administration.
• MD-01: Republican Rep. Andy Harris hasn't confirmed if he'll seek re-election or wage a long-shot Senate bid, but one Eastern Shore politician doesn't care. Former Del. Mike "Please, stop it with the Tolkien jokes already" Smigiel has confirmed that he'll run in the GOP primary regardless of what Harris does.
The libertarian-flavored Smigiel is best known for opposing gun control (which GOP voters will like a lot) and supporting legal pot (which GOP voters will not like nearly as much), while Harris drew headlines for trying to block marijuana decriminalization in D.C. But Smigiel's primary challenge is about more than smoking a doobie at the Jefferson Memorial: Harris helped deny Smigiel the GOP nod for state Senate nomination in a 2013 special. Smigiel is also hoping to gain some traction by hitting Harris for voting to re-elect John Boehner as speaker. Romney won this seat 60-38, so it should stay red without any trouble.
• NC-03: So much for that. About a week after reports surfaced that Republican state Secretary of Transportation Anthony Tata was mulling a primary challenge against Rep. Walter Jones, Tata put out a memo to his employees informing them that he's not going anywhere. Tata's move isn't necessarily good news for Jones, a libertarian on the outs with the GOP's national security establishment. Former George W. Bush aide Taylor Griffin, who only lost 51-45 last year, is reportedly considering a rematch, and he and Tata could have split the anti-Jones vote if they both ran. Romney won this coastal seat 58-41, so the eventual GOP nominee shouldn't have much trouble here.
• NY-13: Over the weekend, Assemblyman and Manhattan Democratic Party Chair Keith Wright kicked off his long-awaited campaign to succeed longtime Rep. Charlie Rangel in this bluer-than-blue seat. Wright was joined at his event by ex-Gov. David Paterson and Councilwoman Inez Dickens, who were both mentioned as potential candidates at the beginning of the year. The Rev. Calvin Butts, a prominent figure in Harlem politics who was also once a rumored candidate, introduced Wright and praised him as someone who could continue Rangel's legacy.
Wright can't expect an easy path to victory here. Ex-Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV is already running, and Rangel raised some eyebrows when he appeared at his campaign fundraiser, though Rangel made it clear he wasn't endorsing Powell. State Sen. Adriano Espaillat came close to beating Rangel in the last two primaries, and he's likely to try again. While Espaillat hasn't announced anything, his tweet welcoming Wright to "the conversation in the 13th CD abt expanding opportunities 4 working families and seniors" didn't leave much doubt about his plans.
Former DNC Political Director and 2012 contender Clyde Williams also has been considering, and he fired off a candidate-esque tweet of his own after Wright declared. Former New York City Councilman Robert Jackson, who lost 50-43 when he tried unseating Espaillat last year, is also publicly considering, and Assemblyman Robert Rodriguez is also expected to join the fray. We could also see some other Democrats come out of the woodwork and run for this rare open seat.
• PA-08: GOP state Rep. Scott Petri has some company in "not officially running but I've set up an exploratory committee" land. Retired Col. Tom Manion, who lost 57-42 to then-Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy in 2008, has also filed papers with the FEC for this suburban Philadelphia swing seat. Local Republicans hint that more people could end up campaigning here, though we don't have any more names (businessman Mike Mabin says un-named people encouraged him to run, but he won't do it). Things seem pretty set on the Democratic side, where state Rep. Steve Santarsiero faces 2014 candidate Shaughnessy Naughton.
• TX-33: Former state Rep. Domingo Garcia says he's considering another run for Congress, which would ostensibly pit him against Rep. Marc Veasey in the Democratic primary once again. But, reports the National Journal's Jack Fitzpatrick, Garcia's actually hoping that the courts will invalidate in Texas' current congressional lines yet again and force the creation of a reliably Hispanic district in the Dallas area.
That would avoid another confrontation with Veasey, who beat Garcia by 5 points in a 2012 runoff for what was, at the time, a brand-new 33rd District that had come into being thanks to congressional reapportionment. Garcia, a wealthy personal injury attorney who served as a chair of the Texas Latino Redistricting Task Force, actually had a hand in crafting the district, which wound up as a Hispanic-majority seat. But many of those Latinos were non-voters, and African Americans dominated the primary, allowing Veasey, who is black, to win. (Democratic strategist Matt Angle to Fitzpatrick: "As many strengths as Domingo has, interpreting district maps is not one of them.")
There's also the matter of Garcia being a raving asshole. As a state lawmaker, he had to have colleagues file bills on his behalf, because otherwise any legislation bearing his name would have been dead on arrival. That led Texas Monthly to memorably brand Garcia a "one-man leper colony."
And he stayed true to his leperous reputation the last time he and Veasey crossed swords. Shortly before the 2012 primary, Garcia called Veasey an "errand boy" for "big corporations and Wall Street." That predictably incensed Veasey's supporters; as one un-aligned legislator summed it up: "Calling a black man 'boy' is the stuff of Jim Crow."
Since then, Veasey's had the chance to entrench himself. He crushed another self-funding Hispanic attorney, Tom Sanchez, by a 3-to-1 margin last year, so it's easy to understand why Garcia would rather run in a different district. But even if such a seat were to get created, it could be a very long way off. Texas' redistricting litigation has been mired in a strange, years-long limbo now, with a federal three-judge panel still considering several challenges by plaintiffs. The Lone Star State will likely host its primaries in March, meaning that there really isn't much time to put a new map in place for 2016, especially since there will probably be appeals.
But Garcia says he plans to make up his mind by next month, so that would almost certainly require him to take a second shot at Veasey. But given how things turned out last time, he'd probably be wise to stand down.
Other Races:
• Special Elections: Via Johnny Longtorso:
Rhode Island HD-33: This is an open Democratic seat consisting of parts of the towns of Narragansett and South Kingstown. The Democratic nominee is Carol McEntee, a member of the South Kingstown town council. The Republican nominee is Robert Trager, who ran for this seat in 2012 and lost 58-42. Also on the ballot are two independents, former teacher Elizabeth Candas and sales manager Jamie McKnight Jr. This district went 59-39 for President Obama in 2012.
Grab Bag:
• Deaths: Mervin Field, the researcher who created the legendary Field Poll, died on Sunday at the age of 94. Field, the son of Russian Jewish immigrants, grew up in New Jersey but moved to California after serving in the merchant marine (and surviving several U-boat attacks) in World War II. He soon launched what he called the California Poll (later renamed in his honor), which became a major feature of Golden State politics. Thanks to its matchless reputation for accuracy, its findings still dominate the discussion to this day. Field remained actively involved with his firm, Field Research, well into his 90s.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, and Daniel Donner.