There's going to be about a dozen Republican presidential candidates next year, and this is a fortunate development for Democrats.
Given the circumstances, normally this would be a favorable time for an ambitious Republican to become president. The seat will be open and the current occupant is of the opposite party and not politically dominant. The Citizens United era of fundraising ensures even little known candidates can run well funded operations with the support of a single billionaire. Republicans hold Congress and a great deal of state governments which means there is plenty of staff available for hire. Finally, there is no dominant figure with a tight grip on a large natural constituency. If you are a Republican and want to be president, now is about as good as its going to get for a long time.
Now, eventually, Republican will begin to reduce this field down to two or three candidates. I can make no predictions on how quickly it will take to sort this out because I've never seen anything like it in my life. But it is safe to assume that this will get sorted out, the establishment of the GOP will finally unite behind a candidate, that person will be the nominee, and the party will unite behind that person. And, the vast majority of Republicans will vote for that person, no matter who it is.
However, I do see a rather beneficial side for Democrats in all this: We have Hillary Clinton.
Now I know all you Sanders and anybody but Hillary people will say 'no way man' and 'Bernie all the way' and whatever and thats fine. Im not going to get into that in depth, but you're going to lose and you'll vote for Clinton eventually because youre not crazy people.
The good thing about a spread out GOP field is that its going to take them a long time to get famous. None of the people running in the GOP are breakout stars with a bit of fame except perhaps Christie and we can clearly see he is finished. The other person, Jeb Bush, is more infamous than famous, having a last name that is synonymous with failure. The rest of them face the task of getting known. The hardest part about running for President is getting famous and doing it right. You have to make a positive impression on a huge number of people, hopefully get some percentage of those folks to listen to you, get an even smaller percentage to ignore the case against you, and then get an even smaller number to come out and vote for you. This latter number is tens of millions of people. But that first number has to be up into the 100 million level. Ever imagine how difficult it is to make a positive impression on one person? Try 100 million.
But Democrats wont have to do any of that. Because our nominee is already known to absolutely everyone. Around the entire world. Hillary Clinton needs no introduction. She can get right down to it, and make a case for herself and she will get an ear. Because she's already famous. But more importantly, she will get the ear to make her case against a considerably less famous GOP opponent. That is critical to shaping the electorate. Because as we have learned from two successful Obama Campaigns, what matters most is the composition of the electorate. Nobody is going to vote for you if they have no idea who you are.
That's a good place to be in a situation facing the Democrats. As ive said before, its going be hard holding this seat three cycles in a row. Even against a Republican we get to define to the public before he becomes famous. Be even though we face this, Id rather have the marquee name given top billing than being on their side and trying to build a featherweight into a heavyweight in four months.