An Evan Bayh comeback would give Democrats a great shot at a pickup, but there's no guarantee it will happen
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Indiana Sen. Dan Coats never seemed thrilled about the prospect of serving another term in the Senate, and his late March retirement announcement didn't surprise many people. Still, the contest to succeed him as been slow to develop. Only one Republican is running so far, but several others are interested in jumping in. Democrats know that they won't have an easy time winning in this conservative state, but several are mulling bids.
Eric Holcomb, Coats' ex-chief of staff and a former head of the state Republican Party, kicked off his bid for this seat just days after his boss finalized his departure. Holcomb starts out with little name recognition with primary voters, but he's very well-connected, and though Coats didn't formally endorse him, he offered a very friendly pat on the head. Holcomb is particularly close to former Gov. Mitch Daniels and his political network, which could pay dividends in a primary. Coats bailed shortly before the end of the first fundraising quarter, and Holcomb reported collecting $125,000 in his first week on the trail. If he were to keep up that pace over a full quarter, he'd take in an impressive haul, but as things stand, those numbers are going to intimidate any of his potential rivals.
And just who are those folks? Find out below the fold.
Holcomb is about as establishment as they come; Rep. Marlin Stutzman, by contrast, is easily his most tea-soaked prospective opponent. Stutzman, who says he'll decide by mid-May, ran for this seat in 2010 as a little-known state senator and performed surprisingly well in the primary against Coats. He's also quite ambitious, which he proved last year when he ran for House majority whip (albeit unsuccessfully).
But the Fort Wayne-area representative doesn't have much money in the bank, and it's unclear if he'll get help from groups like the Club For Growth that have spent big to shift the GOP caucus to the right. Stutzman voted against John Boehner as speaker in January, putting himself at odds with plenty of influential Republicans.
He's also not particularly disciplined. During the 2013 shutdown, he unwisely insisted that his fellow House Republicans were "not going to be disrespected. We have to get something out of this. And I don't know what that even is." (If "nothing" counts as a thing, then he was right.) Stutzman would probably give Democrats the best chance to flip this seat, and Team Blue will root for him if he runs.
Two of Stutzman's House colleagues are also looking at running here. Southern Indiana representative Todd Young is on good terms with the House leadership, and he starts out with a solid $1.1 million on hand. Unlike most of his potential primary opponents, Young also has some relatively recent experience winning a tough general election: During the 2010 GOP wave, he unseated Democratic incumbent Baron Hill 52-42. Rep. Todd Rokita has a similar amount of money in the bank, but he hasn't seemed quite as interested in a promotion as Young.
A few other Republicans could run. Powerful state House Speaker Brian Bosma hasn't ruled anything out, though he seems more interested in seeking the governorship in 2020. State Sen. Mike Delph sounds a lot more intrigued, but he'd be competing for the same type of voters as Stutzman. State Sen. Jim Merritt and outgoing Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard have also been name-dropped, but neither man has said anything publicly.
Democrats won't have an easy time flipping this seat, but Hoosiers have proven that they're still willing to vote blue downballot. However, if former Sen. Evan Bayh launched a comeback bid, he'd immediately put this seat in play. While Bayh was an unreliable vote (and a frequent thorn in his party's side) during his 12 years in Washington, he was very popular back home. Bayh also still has almost $10 million in his old campaign account, so he'd start out with a monster financial advantage over his potential Republican foes. As big of a pain as Bayh could be in the Senate, there's little doubt that he'd give Democrats their best chance to retake this seat.
But the DSCC can't count on a Bayh comeback. He retired without warning in 2010, saying he was tired of Congress, and it's unclear if his attitude has changed since then. Bayh himself called another campaign "highly unlikely," though he's an unpredictable enough guy that you can't be sure what he'll do until he's done it.
Bayh would probably clear the field if he gets in, but a few Democrats are considering running if he doesn't. Former Rep. Baron Hill (the man Todd Young unseated) has been considering a run, though he also has his eyes on the governorship. Hill hails from Southern Indiana, an ancestrally blue area where Democrats need to do well in order to win statewide. State Rep. Christina Hale has also expressed interest in this seat. Hale won re-election in a swing district during the 2014 GOP wave, so she has some recent campaign experience. Hammond Mayor Tom McDermott and former Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson are worth keeping an eye on as well, though neither has said much about their plans.
With an unpredictable GOP primary and the possibility of a competitive general election, the Indiana Senate race is a must-watch contest. We'll be keeping a close eye on it here at Daily Kos Elections.
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