As I announced a couple of days ago, I'm going to do a series of diaries on what our nation's congressional districts would look like if the U.S. House of Representatives had 3,082 members, or one member for every 100,000 residents of the 50 states, rounded up.
As part of this series, I'll provide maps, created using Dave's Redistricting App (DRA) of what each state's congressional districts would look like, as well as sets of spreadsheets containing information about each district's total population, voting age population, population by race, deviation from the mean district population (i.e., how much each district is overpopulated or underpopulated compared to the total state population divided by the number of districts), two-party results and percentages from past elections, and the partisan lean of each state (depending on the specific partisan lean figure, partisan lean can be relative to either the entire country (i.e, relative to a Democratic candidate's nationwide percentage), the state (i.e., relative to a Democratic candidate's statewide percentage), 50%, or any other figure that I otherwise state). Data used in the spreadsheets either comes from DRA or is based on DRA data and uses my calculations, except for the "national" 2008 presidential election figures, which come from Wikipedia, and any state-specific exemption I make.
The first two states that I'll feature are Wyoming and Vermont, which would each have six congressional districts if the House had 3,082 members. Currently, both states have only one U.S. Representative apportioned to them.
WYOMING - 6 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS
Link to spreadsheet set. Electoral data is of the 2008 Presidential Election.
District 1 (Blue)
Population: 93,274 (90% White, 7% Hispanic, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 69,882 (92% White, 6% Hispanic, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Deviation: -664
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 22.81%, McCain 77.19%
Partisan Lean: 30.88% Republican
This district includes much of east-central and northeastern Wyoming. The district includes all of Crook, Weston, Niobrara, Converse, and Platte Counties, as well as the southern, central, and east-central parts of Campbell County and the northern part of Goshen County. This is the most Republican district in Wyoming, in fact, it's one of the most Republican districts in the entire country.
District 2 (Green)
Population: 94,727 (81% White, 2% Black, 13% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 2% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 71,683 (84% White, 2% Black, 11% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Deviation: +789
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 38.88%, McCain 61.12%
Partisan Lean: 14.8% Republican
This is a Cheyenne-based district that includes the southeastern corner of the state, taking in all of Laramie County and the southern part of Goshen County. Republican incumbent Cynthia Lummis lives in this heavily-Republican district, and she would probably win re-election easily here despite the fact that the district has the highest percentage of ethnic minorities of any district (although it's still over 80% white by total population).
District 3 (Purple)
Population: 93,485 (82% White, 1% Black, 13% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 2% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 72,523 (84% White, 1% Black, 11% Hispanic, 2% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Deviation: -453
2008 Presidential Election: 43.18% Obama, 56.82% McCain
Partisan Lean: 10.51% Republican
This is a Laramie-based district that includes the south central part of Wyoming, taking in all of Albany and Carbon Counties, as well as the eastern two-thirds of Sweetwater County. While it is the most Democratic district in the state at 9.74% more Democratic than Wyoming as a whole, it's still a heavily-Republican district that would likely elect a Republican to Congress.
District 4 (Red)
Population: 94,521 (89% White, 8% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 71,301 (91% White, 7% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Deviation: +583
2008 Presidential Election: 35.46% Obama, 64.54% McCain
Partisan Lean: 18.23% Republican
This district includes much of western Wyoming, taking in all of Teton, Sublette, Lincoln, and Unita Counties, as well as western and northern Park County and the western one-third of Sweetwater County. The Wyoming portion of Yellowstone National Park is located in the northern part of this district. This district is slightly more Democratic-leaning than the state as a whole, which means that it's heavily Republican.
District 5 (Yellow)
Population: 94,478 (89% White, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 3% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 72,487 (91% White, 5% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Deviation: +540
2008 Presidential Election: 25.53% Obama, 74.47% McCain
Partisan Lean: 28.16% Republican
This district includes much of the north-central part of Wyoming, taking in all of Sheridan, Johnson, Big Horn, Washakie, and Hot Springs Counties, as well as the eastern and southern parts of Park County and the northern part of Fremont County. This district is overwhelmingly Republican.
District 6 (Teal)
Population: 93,141 (84% White, 1% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 7% Native American, 2% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 70,348 (86% White, 1% Black, 5% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 6% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Deviation: -797
2008 Presidential Election: 35.2% Obama, 64.8% McCain
Partisan Lean: 18.49% Republican
This district is a Casper-based district in the central part of Wyoming that includes all of Natrona County and the southern and western parts of Fremont County. While slightly more Democratic than the rest of the state and having the largest Native American population of any Wyoming district, it's still a heavily-Republican district.
Under the Hundred Thousand Rule, Wyoming goes from a 1-0 Republican delegation to a likely 6-0 Republican delegation barring any surprise Democratic victories.
VERMONT - 6 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS
Link to spreadsheet set. Election data is of the 2008 Presidential election and the 2012 U.S. Senate election. The 2012 U.S. Senate data is from the Vermont Secretary of State's website; a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet of the data (along with other 2012 Vermont election data) is available
here. The "Partisan Lean according to 2012 U.S. Senate Election" figures treat Bernie Sanders, an independent candidate, as if he were a Democrat; Sanders's Republican opponent that year was John MacGovern. The partisan lean figures for the 2012 U.S. Senate election are relative to 50%, so, if Bernie Sanders got 70% of the vote in a district, the partisan Lean of the district according to 2012 U.S. Senate election would be 20% Democratic, even though Sanders was an independent candidate and not actually a Democrat.
An unusual factor in Vermont politics is that Vermont actually has a three-party system below the presidential level: in addition to the two major parties, the Progressive Party of Vermont holds several state legislative seats.
District 1 (Blue)
Population: 104,925 (90% White, 3% Black, 2% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 86,303 (91% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 3% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)
Deviation: +635
2008 Presidential Election: 75.96% Obama, 24.04% McCain
2012 U.S. Senate Election: 78.28% Sanders, 21.72% MacGovern
Partisan Lean according to 2008 Presidential Election: 22.27% Democratic
Partisan Lean according to 2012 U.S. Senate Election: 28.28% Democratic
This district is difficult to see on the map above, but it's the blue-colored district on the western edge of the state. Anyways, it's a district entirely within Chittenden County, including the City of Burlington and several surrounding cities and towns. This is the most Democratic district in Vermont, and it also has the highest percentage of ethnic minorities of any Vermont district. Democratic incumbent Peter Welch lives here, and the only way he'd lose re-election is either to a Democratic primary challenger or a Progressive Party member in the general election.
District 2 (Green)
Population: 104,028 (95% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 2% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 78,602 (96% White, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Native American, 1% Other Races)
Deviation: -262
2008 Presidential Election: 65.14% Obama, 34.86% McCain
2012 U.S. Senate Election: 72.07% Sanders, 27.93% MacGovern
Partisan Lean according to 2008 Presidential Election: 11.45% Democratic
Partisan Lean according to 2012 U.S. Senate Election: 22.07% Democratic
This northwestern Vermont district includes all of Grand Isle County, the eastern and northern parts of Chittenden County, and all but one town in Franklin County. This is the most Republican district in Vermont, but it should elect a Democrat barring a scandal or a surprise Progressive Party victory.
District 3 (Purple)
Population: 103,286 (96% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 80,872 (97% White, 1% Hispanic, 1% Other Races)
Deviation: -1,004
2008 Presidential Election: 66.38% Obama, 33.62% McCain
2012 U.S. Senate Election: 72.77% Sanders, 27.23% MacGovern
Partisan Lean according to 2008 Presidential Election: 12.69% Democratic
Partisan Lean according to 2012 U.S. Senate Election: 22.77% Democratic
This northeastern Vermont district includes all of Caledonia, Essex, Lamoille, and Orleans Counties, the northern part of Washington County, and a single town along the U.S./Canada border in Franklin County. Even though this district is more Republican than Vermont as a whole, it should elect a Democrat barring a scandal or a surprise Progressive Party victory.
District 4 (Red)
Population: 104,606 (95% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 83,228 (95% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)
Deviation: +316
2008 Presidential Election: 69.12% Obama, 30.88% McCain
2012 U.S. Senate Election: 75.38% Sanders, 24.62% MacGovern
Partisan Lean according to 2008 Presidential Election: 15.44% Democratic
Partisan Lean according to 2012 U.S. Senate Election: 25.38% Democratic
This central Vermont district is a Montpelier-based district that includes all of Orange County, northern Addison County, and southern, central, and east-central Washington County. This district would likely elect either a Democrat or a Progressive Party member.
District 5 (Yellow)
Population: 103,746 (96% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 83,290 (97% White, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)
Deviation: -544
2008 Presidential Election: 66.43% Obama, 33.57% McCain
2012 U.S. Senate Election: 72.65% Sanders, 27.35% MacGovern
Partisan Lean according to 2008 Presidential Election: 12.74% Democratic
Partisan Lean according to 2012 U.S. Senate Election: 22.65% Democratic
This is a Rutland-based district that includes all of Rutland County, southern Addison County, and northern and central Windsor County. This district has the lowest percentage of ethnic minorities of any Vermont district, but it should easily elect a Democrat barring a scandal or a surprise Progressive Party victory.
District 6 (Teal)
Population: 105,150 (95% White, 1% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 2% Other Races)
Voting Age Population: 84,143 (96% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian/Pacific Islander, 1% Other Races)
Deviation: +860
2008 Presidential Election: 70.22% Obama, 29.78% McCain
2012 U.S. Senate Election: 73.29% Sanders, 26.71% MacGovern
Partisan Lean according to 2008 Presidential Election: 16.53% Democratic
Partisan Lean according to 2012 U.S. Senate Election: 23.29% Democratic
This district includes the southernmost part of Vermont, including all of Bennington and Windham Counties, as well as southern and east-central Windsor County. This district is slightly more Republican than Vermont as a whole according to the 2012 U.S. Senate results but slightly more Democratic as a whole according to the 2008 presidential election results.
Under the Hundred Thousand Rule, Vermont goes from a 1-0 Democratic delegation to a 6-0 Democratic delegation, unless one or more Republicans and/or Progressive Party members pull off surprise victories.
The next diary in the Hundred Thousand Rule series will feature Alaska and North Dakota.