Republicans have determined that their inroad to gutting Social Security is to start a big fight between the disabled people in the program and the old people. Sen. Rand Paul, never big on nuance or subtlety,
let the cat out of the bag last week when he declared that over half of the people on disability are "gaming the system." Paul's ham-handed comments focused attention on the Republicans' latest ploy,
manufacturing a crisis in the disability program that will allow them to "reform" the program as a whole, i.e., slash retiree benefits and privatize it. They did so by adopting a new rule that governs the House, keeping them from making a routine transfer from the retiree fund in Social Security to the disability fund when it's projected to run short in 2016.
But it turns out that Republicans left just enough wiggle room in the rule to avert disaster in 2016. That in turn could set them up for 2017 when they hope to have the House, the Senate, and the White House, and can slash away.
[A]n analysis by Social Security’s chief actuary, Stephen Goss, suggests there's less to the new House rule than meets the eye. That's because the point of order is triggered only if lawmakers exceed a "0.01 percent" threshold, which equates to a $38.6 billion cap on what any one Congress can move from the retirement fund, Goss told POLITICO.
That leaves too little room for some long-term, multiyear reallocation of payroll tax revenues but it is enough to get past 2016, by Goss’ calculations.
In other words, Republicans wouldn't have to shoot their hostage in an election year and wouldn't have to run as Social Security killing monsters. At least not until 2018. That is, unless Democrats raise holy hell on the fact that Republicans are coming after grandma. Again. One Democratic senator, Sherrod Brown,
is on it, already warning Democrats that negotiating with Republicans on this is a losing proposition.
"They want to dramatically slice Social Security, so we negotiate and compromise a small cut in Social Security?" Brown told TPM. "No, that's not the way you negotiate."
Brown also says that he's convinced President Obama "can use a veto pen and will eagerly do it on something like this." The fact that Democrats don't have to give away anything in 2016—that Republicans left themselves an out—underscores Brown's confidence that Democrats can win this one. They can win it by refusing to give anything to Republicans on disability, and by exposing Republicans' true aim. Democrats can win on Social Security, but they need to do it by going on hard offense.