Israel's politics are complicated, to say the least. They're also absolutely fascinating. Luckily for those of us who love to discuss elections, one is coming up quite soon, on March 17 to be exact. In this diary, I will discuss the major (and minor!) parties who will make up Israel's next Knesset (Parliament), as well as explore the geographic and cultural divisions within the parties' voting bases.
I have two things to note here before I continue.
1. This diary is not a place to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Many people have strong views on the subject on both sides. That's perfectly acceptable. However, argue about it somewhere else. No derails here. On the other hand, if you are discussing the conflict only as it impacts Israel's elections, that's fine.
2. The Israeli political system is nearly always in flux; parties align and dealign with one another frequently, and they also are created and die every election. While most things appear set for the next election, there will likely be substantial change.
Part 1: The Israeli Political Parties.
The Major Parties
Likud (Note that Likud Beiteinu was actually a dual list of two parties, Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu, who allied for the 2013 election have since split back up. I told you this was complicated).
Party History: Likud and its predecessors Gahal and Herut have been the main party of the Israeli right since independence. They spent 30 years in opposition before capturing Knesset control. Famous party leaders include PMs Menachem Begin, Yitzhak Shamir, and Ariel Sharon (who left the party while PM).
Leader: Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu
Current Seats: 20
Projected Seats (based on polling average of 5 recent polls from different agencies): 23
Ideology: Center-Right to Right. Likud consists of hawkish economic conservatives, but there is a range within the party, similar to the range within today's Republican Party, in terms of how opposed to the welfare state they are. PM Netanyahu sits in the center, and arguably the center-left of his party. In many ways I would compare him to Mitt Romney, as he is afraid of his party's base but personally would not mind being more centrist.
The Outlook: Likud looks set to essentially hold steady. The main question is whether they win the right to form a coalition. President Reuben Rivlin will decide, based on March election results, who will have the first shot, and it's uncertain if Likud or rival Labor will earn that right.
Labor (Avoda in Hebrew) and Hatnua alliance
Party History: Labor and predecessor Mapai ran Israel for 30 years until a stinging defeat in 1977. Famous leaders include the first PM, David Ben-Gurion, PM Golda Meir, one of the first women elected head of government anywhere on Earth, and PM Yitzhak Rabin, assassinated by a Jewish extremist in the 1990s after signing the Oslo Accords. Hatnua was a new centrist party founded by Tzipi Livni in time for the 2013 elections. Livni chose to merge with Labor partially to guarantee meeting the 3.25% threshold for election and partially to help Labor potentially win first right to organize a coalition.
Leader: Opposition Leader Isaac Herzog, but he's promised to rotate the PM office and make Livni PM two years after the elections if he wins. See, I told you it's complicated!
Current Seats: 21
Projected Seats: 24, 1 ahead of Likud.
Ideology: Labor originated out of the socialist kibbutz movement in the early 20th century and ran Israel as a social democratic party until the 1970s. Like most social democratic parties, they moved to the center in the 1980s and 1990s and have remained a center-left party since, opposed to most nationalizations and the like but supportive of a substantial welfare state. The party does have a split, like the British Labour party, between the neoliberal centrist and the more old fashioned leftists. From what I can tell, Herzog is more a member of the former wing.
The Outlook: Labor has appeared to be in free fall for a while now, never collapsing completely but never looking capable of winning either. The alliance with Hatnua appears to give them a true shot at leading a government, something with seemed almost impossible just a year or two ago. It remains to be seen, however, if they can form a coalition should they get the chance. In 2009, Livni could not, and Netanyahu became prime minister instead.
The Minor Parties (they come in different sizes, but none of their leaders will be prime minister)
Yesh Atid
Party History: Yesh Atid was formed for the 2013 election by the telegenic broadcaster Yair Lapid. They were another in the long line of Israeli centrist parties to find success in the last few decades. None seem to last, however.
Leader: Finance Minister Yair Lapid. Lapid's resignation triggered the current early elections. He was never a good fit in the center-right coalition, as he was its most leftist major player. His tenure as Finance Minister is poorly regarded; he appeared to be in over his head as a novice given such an important position.
Current Seats: 19
Projected Seats: 9
Ideology: Yesh Atid found surprising success in 2013 running center-left on economics while mostly ignoring the Israeli-Arab conflict. Their other major issue is attacking the substantial welfare benefits and exemptions that Israel's ultra-Orthodox (10% or so of the population) receive. They found partial success after the 2013 elections when a bill to end the draft exemption for the ultra-Orthodox passed.
The Outlook: Like all centrist parties in Israel, Yesh Atid peaked in their first election. They will still remain an important presence in Parliament, with around 10 seats.
Yisrael Beiteinu
Party History: Yisrael Beiteinu was formed around the turn of the century. It has never been one of Israel's major parties, but has had a significant presence for about a decade, including winning 19 seats in 2009. In 2013 they ran on a combined list with Likud, but has since split away. The party also is notorious for corruption, and just last week a major corruption scandal hit. It remains to be seen how this will factor into their poll standing.
Leader: Minister of Foreign Affairs Avigdor Lieberman. Lieberman has been described as a fascist by many. Like with most controversial politicians, there is more nuance than his critics claim, but he certainly has many tendencies that scare the average Israeli voter. He has proposed that all Arab Israelis sign a loyalty vote or lose their voting rights and called for the execution of an Arab Knesset member who met with Hamas, among other things. Lieberman has also been investigated for corruption. Although found not guilty, he is widely considered corrupt in the public mind. He was also convicted of assault in 2001 after attacking a 12-year-old who had hit his son.
Current Seats: 11 (as part of alliance with Likud)
Projected Seats: 8
Ideology: Yisrael Beiteinu has generally been considered to Likud's right, for good reason. However, Lieberman appears to be trying to move to the center this election, realizing that the right has grown quite crowded. He has attacked Netanyahu for alienating American and European governments.
The Outlook: Yisrael Beiteinu appears to be old news. They will probably be no more significant than any other minor party, and may continue to fall in the polls if the corruption scandal continues.
Jewish Home/Habayit Hayehudi (Hebrew for Jewish Home. Unlike most parties, which are written about in English-language media outlets using either their Hebrew name (most parties) or the English translation (Labor and UTJ), the media uses both.
Leader: Economy and Religious Minister Naftali Bennett was born to American parents and became incredibly wealthy working in the New York City tech sector.
Current Seats: 11
Projected Seats: 16
Ideology: Bennett and his party are considered similar to Yisrael Beiteinu when it comes to Israeli-Palestinian issues and are also very supportive of free-market capitalism. In many ways, his party's parallel in America is the Tea Party. What distinguishes Jewish Home from Yisrael Beiteinu is religion; Yisrael Beiteinu is very secular, while Jewish Home stems from the national-religious wing of Israeli politics which has traditionally held 5-10% of the Knesset seats throughout Israel's history.
The Outlook: Jewish Home has succeeded where Yesh Atid has not; both were new last election, but only one is still rising in the polls. Like the Tea Party in America, Jewish Home is continuing to draw votes from the Likud establishment. Bennett and Netanyahu are relatively close compared to Netanyahu's relationship with other party leaders, and if Netanyahu wins they will certainly form a coalition again.
United Torah Judaism
Party History: Various ultra-Orthodox parties have existed since Israel was founded. UTJ is the Ashkenazi (European ancestry) ultra-Orthodox party. They are nearly always a coalition member, but were left out this time around.
Leader: Yaakov Litzman is the relative low-key leader of UTJ. Like Netanyahu, he was raised in America (rare for Israeli politicians, although Golda Meir was too).
Current Seats: 7
Projected Seats: 7
Ideology: UTJ is exactly what happens under proportional representation: a homogenous group of people unite almost 100% behind a party representing their interests and their interests alone. Thus, UTJ does whatever benefits their constituency and is willing to compromise on what little ideology they have unless it relates to certain social issues the rabbis prohibit compromise on or certain benefits the ultra-Orthodox receive.
Shas
Party History: Shas represents Sephardic Jews, many ultra-Orthodox and others not. Traditionally Sephardic Jews have been discriminated against in society to an extent; a loose comparison (obviously there was no slavery or formal segregation) to Blacks in America could be made, with Sephardim poorer and facing systemic, often subconscious discrimination from Ashkenazi Israelis. None of Israel's prime ministers has been Sephardic, and their most prominent politician, former President Moshe Katzav, was imprisoned after a rape conviction a few years ago. Shas is the only heavily Sephardic party, although many Sephardic voters vote for other parties such as Likud.
Leader: ???. Shas's leader until this past week, Aryeh Deri, was quite the man, serving as a minister at 24 and sent to prison at 41 for corruption. 11 years after his release, he returned to the Knesset, but just this past week resigned his leadership position after criticism from the party's founder and spiritual leader, Rabbi Ovadia Yosef. As of now, it's unclear if he'll return or be replaced.
Current Seats: 10 (11 in actuality, but 1 has split off to form the renegade HaAm Itanu)
Projected Seats: 6
Ideology: Shas, like UTJ, is in it for themselves. Deri came from their more left-wing faction, with the new HaAm Itanu upset at Deri's embrace of many social democratic economic policies and more market-oriented.
Meretz
Party History: The mainstream center-left has always had more left-wing opposition. Until 1965, they always earned at least 7% at sometimes twice that, but in recent years the number has remained steady at close to 5%. This left-wing opposition has had different names; Meretz has been the main left-wing party since 1992 after multiple left-wing parties united.
Leader: Zahava Gal-On was born in the Soviet Union but was raised in Israel. She became the party leader recently.
Current Seats: 6
Projected Seats: 7
Ideology: Meretz is similar to Green parties in Europe: on the left economically with strong emphases on environmentalism and a focus on women and the LGBT population (their current leader is female and a former prominent MK who just retired was the only openly gay one in the country). They are also the furthest to the "left" when it comes to Palestinians among the semi-mainstream parties.
Kulanu
Party History: This brand new party is the latest flash-in-the-pan centrist party.
Leader: Former Likud MK Moshe Kahlon, one of only two Sephardic party leaders.
Current Seats: 0
Projected Seats: 8
Ideology: Kahlon occupies a very similar ideological space to Lapid's Yesh Atid: secular, centrist, and focused on pocketbook issues. With Lapid's fall after joining the coalition and flailing about as Finance Minister, Kahlon will likely just end up taking a lot of his former voters, plus some votes from Sephardic former Likud voters. You'll notice that together Kulanu and Yesh Atid get 17 MKs, just shy of Yesh Atid's current 19. If any party surges in February and March it will likely be this one.
The Arab Parties
Party History and Ideology: Israeli Arabs have generally been split politically into three camps: communists (currently Hadash), Islamist (currently United Arab List), and pan-Arab nationalist (Balad). Hadash is more unique from the other two, as it includes Jews on their parliamentary lists. All three parties oppose Israel's Jewish character.
Leader(s): The three parties are trying to unite into either one or two to guarantee none fail to pass the 3.25% threshold, but they have yet to agree on anything. Ultimately, my guess is that the UAL and Balad will combine, with Hadash running separately.
Current Seats: 11
Projected Seats: 11
Other Parties
HaAm Itanu
Summary: As stated earlier, HaAm Itanu is a breakaway from Shas. They are both religious and pro-market and are led by controversial former Shas leader Eli Yishai (of Israel is for White people and bomb Gaza back to the stone age fame). Polls show they have about a 50-50 chance of entering the Knesset and would likely receive the minimum of 4 members should they make it. 2 current MKs have joined, Yishai and a member of Jewish Home.
Kadima
Summary: Kadima was the first of the recent new centrist parties, formed by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon when he broke away from Likud in the mid-2000s. Sharon soon ended up in a coma, and the corrupt Ehud Olmert took over. In the next election, Tzipi Livni led the party to the highest number of seats but could not form a coalition. Since then the party has utterly collapsed. It got the minimum of 2 MKs last election and is now dead.
Whew! That was a lot. Hopefully you now at least have a better understanding of the dozen political players in Israeli politics right now. But wait, there's more! Continue for an analysis of where and from whom parties gain their strength.
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Israel can be divided into seven regions, which I have given names to. For some help, here is a map of the country.
The Gush Dan area includes Tel Aviv and its suburbs, like Herzliya, Netanya, and Rishon LeTzion, which you can see on this map. It makes up 34% of Israeli voters, the largest of any region by quite a bit. It is generally secular and therefore supportive of the center-left; think of it as Israel's Chicagoland, a very liberal city surrounded by a mixture of suburbs which even out to being neutral. Tel Aviv itself, like Chicago, is a stronghold of the left; 36% of voters voted for Labor, Meretz, or small left-wing parties, compared to 18% nationally. The Tel Aviv suburbs almost exactly mirror the nation but support the centrist secular parties at slightly higher rates. Tel Aviv has a reputation of being very far left relative to the country, but that is only true in the city itself (and a half-dozen inner suburbs), not the whole metropolitan area.
The Jerusalem and Hills area mainly consists of the city of Jerusalem but also includes the nearby towns of Beit Shemesh and Modi'in and four large settlements which would likely be transferred to Israeli control in any peace deal. Together, they make up just 9% of the country's voters. The main political feature of this area is the strength of the religious and right-wing voters; Jerusalem itself voted only 22% for center-left parties in the most recent election. Only Modi'in (a recipient of "secular flight" from Jerusalem) saw a vote of higher than 22% for those parties among the 7 locations in this region. Together the breakdown is 38% religious, 38% right, and 23% center-left.
The Haifa area consists of Haifa, Israel's third city, and its suburbs. It makes up just 6% of the voters. The city itself votes 5 to 10 points to the left of the country, while its suburbs vote nearly as much to the right of it. Combined, the Haifa area mirrors the country nearly perfectly, except that it is less ultra-Orthodox.
The South comprises the cities of Be'er Sheva, Ashdod, and Ashkelon, as well as smaller towns further out in the desert. It is the region most threatened by rockets from Gaza. Like the American South, it is significantly to the country's right and is also the second-strongest region for ultra-Orthodox parties. 9% of voters live here.
Only 5% of voters live in the Northern Towns. This is the right's best area and the only one where they won an outright majority of the vote between Likud Beiteinu and Jewish Home.
Rural Areas are split between two very different groups; the socialist-founded kibbutzim and moshavim are full of Labor and Meretz voters, and the West Bank settlements are full of Likud and Jewish Home ones. A relatively large 26% of the population lives in towns with fewer than 5,000 voters. The center-left earned 52% of the vote last time, but in truth there are probably very few areas where they earned between 25% and 75%.
Arab Towns mostly vote for Arab parties, unsurprisingly, although in a couple towns there are sizable numbers of Labor or Meretz voters.
Now let's move on to the flip side; a demographic portrait of each party's voters.
Likud voters are pretty evenly distributed outside of the city of Tel Aviv. They are probably the least interesting demographically.
Labor voters are most heavily concentrated in the Gush Dan area and a couple of Haifa's suburbs, as well as the kibbutz strongholds. The party, like many leftist-originated ones, has struggled to appeal to middle-class suburbanites and outside of one town, did not crack 20% in the past election in any location with over 5,000 people. A parallel would be the UK's Labour Party, which generally is a big city/poor working-class party without much appeal in the suburbs.
Meretz/small left-wing party voters are in similar locations as Labor ones, but the party does relatively better among the middle class, equaling Labor's vote share (17%) in Tel Aviv. A similar parallel would be Green Party voters in the 2000 presidential election, who tended to be relatively high-income.
Yesh Atid (and probably Kulanu) excels among these secular urban and suburbanites. Centrist parties received 23% of the non-Arab vote nationally, but earned over 28% in the cities of Tel Aviv and Haifa and did better than the national average in the Tel Aviv suburbs. They are weak in the Jerusalem area and the North, the two worst areas generally for the center-left. Think of them as the New Democrats/Rockefeller Republicans of Israel, with appeal everywhere you'd expect Michael Bloomberg to have done well in as a 2012 third party nominee.
Yisrael Beiteinu has a decently large and loyal base among recent immigrants from the former Soviet Union (it is generally considered the Russian party) and thus does well wherever the recent immigrants are, generally the less desirable towns/cities in the South and North. In 2009, the party earned majorities in Ashdod and Ramla and got over 40% in six other towns.
Jewish Home and other national religious parties unsurprisingly excel in the settlements. They are often considered "settler parties."
The ultra-Orthodox parties have easy targets: they turn out the ultra-Orthodox voters and win their support almost unanimously. These ultra-Orthodox voters live mostly in the Jerusalem area, but also make up a third of the voters or more in a couple very religious Tel Aviv suburbs.