This diary is the first in a series that will examine the 2014 election results in Maine. This diary will look at both houses of the state legislature. For each district, I will examine the voting patterns of the different geographical areas of the district as well as point out any trends that are noticeable from the results.
Warning: This is a very long diary. It does, after all, mention 186 different elections.
Here are Stephen Wolf's maps of the state senate and state house districts of Maine. You may want to have these open in another browser window as you read this diary.
This is a map of the state Senate results in Maine this year. The districts are outlined.
This is a map of the state House results in Maine this year. The counties are outlined to give a better view of where each district is.
Legend:
Darkest blue: 80%+ for Democrats
Dark blue: 70-79.99% for Democrats
Normal blue: 60-69.99% for Democrats
Lighter blue: 55-59.99% for Democrats
Lightest blue: 50-54.99% for Democrats
Yellow: No candidate received an absolute majority of votes
Pink: 50-54.99% for Republicans
Normal red: 55-59.99% for Republicans
Brown: 60-69.99% for Republicans
Dark red: 70-79.99% for Republicans
Darkest red: 80%+ for Republicans
Gray represents towns won by independent candidates. White represents towns where no one voted. Green represents uninhabited townships.
In addition, a useful resource while reading this diary might be my series of diaries on Maine's political geography, which can be found here: http://www.dailykos.com/...
Let's begin below the fold... with York County!
York County
Incumbent state senator Dawn Hill (D-York) won an easy 60-40 re-election against Republican John Carson in the southernmost district in Maine. She got at least 56 percent in each town except Berwick, which was added to her district in redistricting. In this area in the state House, Democrats held their seats in Kittery and Eliot, and picked up HD-3 in York with Lydia Blume, after previous Republican incumbent Windol Weaver was term-limited. Thus, except for the part of Berwick in this district, the whole area is represented by Democrats in the state House.
Incumbent state senator Ron Collins (R-Wells) was re-elected 49-38-13 against Democrat Gary Connor of Kennebunk and independent (and former Democrat) Richard Burns of Berwick. Collins won every town except Kennebunk, which Connor won by a 20-point margin. Collins’ 33-point win in Wells sealed the deal for him. In the state House, Republican Robert Foley easily held his party’s open seat in Wells, while Democrat (and former state rep) Christopher Babbidge picked up the Republican-held open seat in Kennebunk for the Dems. However, in Berwick, Democratic incumbent Joshua Plante was defeated 54-46 by Republican Beth O’Connor (who Plante beat in 2012). Democrat (and Speaker of the House) Mark Eves of North Berwick won an easy re-election, while one of the Democratic-held Sanford seats was moved out to the Republican-leaning towns of Lebanon and Acton in redistricting, and Karen Gerrish easily won it for the Republicans.
Incumbent state senator John Tuttle (D-Sanford) was heavily defeated, 59-41, for re-election by Republican David Woodsome of Waterboro, a local official in that town. Tuttle won Sanford by only a 5-point margin, and was blown out in every other town in the district, not receiving over 34 percent in any of them. This was the largest margin of defeat for any incumbent state senator in Maine this year. However, this did not translate into any Republican gains in the state House, since both House Democrats in Sanford won re-election. In addition, Republican Dwayne Prescott won his party’s open seat in Waterboro unopposed, while Independent James Campbell of Newfield won re-election by 4 points in a two-way race against a Republican, losing only Limerick.
Incumbent state Senator David Dutremble (D-Biddeford) won re-election 55-45 against Republican James Booth of Arundel. This was a rematch of 2012, when Booth ran as an Independent and Dutremble won 53-47. Dutremble lost every town except Biddeford, but his 67 percent in Biddeford was enough for the win. In the state House, Democrats won the two districts entirely in Biddeford, however the open district containing part of Biddeford as well as Kennebunkport was narrowly picked up by a Republican, former Rep. H. Stedman Seavey of Kennebunkport. This district has a long history of being politically divided between the Kennebunkport and Biddeford portions, so it is no surprise that Seavey won Kennebunkport while Democrat Diane Denk won the portion of Biddeford. Republican Wayne Parry easily won re-election in his district which includes Arundel and Lyman.
Incumbent state Senator Linda Valentino (D-Saco) won re-election by an easy 60-40 margin against Republican Michael Coleman of Old Orchard Beach. Valentino won Saco by a huge margin, won OOB by about 10 points, and won the small portion of Buxton in the district, while Coleman won the smaller, more Republican towns of Hollis and Limington. In the state House, both Saco incumbent Democrats, Barry Hobbins and Justin Chenette, won re-election easily. In Old Orchard Beach, Republicans had pulled off a massive upset in 2012 when they picked up the House seat here, however this year the seat reverted to form as incumbent Sharri McDonald was heavily defeated 58-42 by former Rep. George Hogan, a Democrat. Republican incumbents Donald Marean of Hollis and Jonathan Kinney of Limington both won re-election easily.
Cumberland County
Incumbent state Senator Jim Boyle (D-Gorham) was defeated 53-47 by state Rep. Amy Volk of Scarborough. Boyle won Gorham, but only by 7 points compared to his 20-point win there in 2012. Volk won both Scarborough and Buxton by 14 points, ensuring her win. Republicans held onto both of Scarborough’s House seats, with incumbent Heather Sirocki winning re-election easily and Karen Vachon narrowly holding Volk’s seat. However, at the same time, Democrats continued their dominance in Gorham, holding both of the House seats there easily.
Incumbent state Senator Rebecca Millett (D-Cape Elizabeth) won re-election by a 54-35 margin, with a Green candidate taking the remaining 11 percent. She easily won both South Portland and Cape Elizabeth, while the Republican, William DeSena, narrowly won the small portion of Scarborough in the district. In the state House, Democrat Kim Monaghan-Derrig easily won re-election in her Cape Elizabeth district, while two of the three South Portland districts saw incumbent Democrats win unopposed. However, in one of the biggest upsets of 2014 in Maine, Republican Kevin Battle narrowly won the third South Portland seat by a 46-44 margin, with a Green candidate taking the remaining 10 percent. This will not be the only case of a Green candidate handing an election to a Republican.
In Portland, this was very much a stand-pat election, as both of Portland’s state Senators and all eight of Portland’s state Reps won re-election by wide margins. Nine of these ten state legislators are Democrats, with the one exception being independent state Rep. Ben Chipman of inner Portland. Chipman is to the left of the Democrats much in the same way that Bernie Sanders is, however unlike in Sanders’ case, Chipman’s main opponent is always a Democrat. His district voted 87 percent for Obama, so there’s no chance of a Republican sneaking through.
North of Portland, Democrat Bill Diamond easily regained his state senate district after a two-year absence (during which the district was represented by a Republican). He won every town in the district with at least 55 percent, even normally-red Baldwin, on his way to a 63-37 victory. In the state House, Windham’s two districts remained split, with one electing a Republican and the other electing a Democrat, both by similar margins. Democrat Michael Shaw of Standish retained his seat by 5-point margin despite a Green taking 8 percent. In Raymond and Casco, Republican Michael McClellan won re-election easily.
Northeast of Portland, along the coast, is home to the now-infamous SD-25, home to the closest state senate race in Maine in a very long time. After a recount in which 21 ballots for the Republican were accidentally double-counted, and a Senate investigation where this double-counting was revealed, Democrat Catherine Breen was found to have received ten more votes than Republican Cathleen Manchester. Manchester won her hometown of Gray by a wide margin, as well as Cumberland by a very small margin. Breen very narrowly won Westbrook, and won her hometown of Falmouth by 10 points and won Yarmouth by 16 points. Both small island towns in the district, Long Island and Chebeague Island, voted for Breen by substantial margins as well. In the state House, both Westbrook seats elected Dems, and Democrat Teresa Pierce held the open seat in Falmouth by 3 points. Democrats weren’t as lucky in Cumberland, where Republican Michael Timmons narrowly won the Democratic open seat there by only 16 votes, making this the closest state House race in Maine this year. It is ironic that not only was the closest state Senate race closer that the closest state House race despite Senate districts being over four times the size of state House districts, but also that they happened in the same place in Maine. In the other state House seats in SD-25, Democrat Janice Cooper easily won re-election in Yarmouth while Republican Susan Austin heavily won the Gray-based seat.
Incumbent state Senator Stanley Gerzofsky of Brunswick won re-election by an underwhelming 48-34 margin, largely due to a Green candidate taking 17 percent. Gerzofsky won every town except North Yarmouth, which was added to his district in redistricting, and even then his loss there was narrow. In the state House, Democratic incumbent Sara Gideon easily won re-election in Freeport, and Democrats won both of the Brunswick seats by wide margins. Democrat Joyce McCreight also held onto the Harpswell-based seat for the Dems after the original Democratic candidate dropped out. However, Democratic incumbent Anne Graham was not as lucky, as her hometown of North Yarmouth was put into a district with Durham, a more conservative town in Androscoggin County. Graham won North Yarmouth by a wide margin, but her opponent, Republican Paul Chace of Durham, won his hometown by an even larger margin on the way to a 52-48 victory for him.
Sagadahoc County
To put it mildly, it was not the Democrats’ best night in Sagadahoc County. After the 2012 elections, Democrats held every state legislative seat in Sagadahoc, but that would not last long. Half-term incumbent state Senator Eloise Vitelli (D-Arrowsic) was defeated 47-41 by Republican Linda Baker of Topsham, with Green Alice Knapp taking the remaining 12 percent. Vitelli won Arrowsic heavily, and won neighboring Georgetown and the county seat of Bath by wide margins, however Baker won both her hometown of Topsham and the neighboring, strongly-Republican town of Bowdoin in landslides (Bowdoin College is not located in Bowdoin – it’s in Brunswick). Baker won every other town in the district by smaller margins, and Vitelli even came in third in Richmond, which is Knapp’s hometown. In the state House, the news wasn’t much better. Democratic incumbent Jennifer DeChant of Bath won re-election easily, and Democrat Denise Tepler narrowly held the Topsham district in yet another three-way race with a Green, but the good news ends there. The Bowdoin-Bowdoinham-Richmond district, vacated by former House Majority Leader Seth Berry, was won by Republican Brian Hobart by a 56-44 margin. And Democratic incumbent Peter Kent of Woolwich was defeated 54-46 by Republican Jeffrey Pierce of Dresden, largely on the strength of large wins in the towns of Dresden and Phippsburg. Democrats really need to do some party-building here in Sagadahoc in order to take back those seats.
Androscoggin County
The Republican wave in 2014 hit Androscoggin County particularly hard, and the election results here reflect that. Incumbent state Senator Garrett Mason (R-Lisbon) won re-election by a 57-43 margin over a good challenger, Sheriff Guy Desjardins of Sabattus. The only towns that Mason lost were Sabattus and the two towns outside Androscoggin, Litchfield and Wayne. Mason romped in Lisbon, getting 66 percent there, and also did well in the conservative suburban town of Turner just north of Auburn, getting 61 percent there. In the state House, Republicans swept the area, with incumbent Dale Crafts of Lisbon running unopposed, incumbents Stephen Wood of Sabattus and Jeffrey Timberlake of Turner winning re-election easily, and Republican Randall Greenwood of Wales winning the open Monmouth-Litchfield seat.
Even Lewiston, usually the Democratic bastion in Androscoggin County, nearly saw catastrophe strike. Democrat Nathan Libby won the open state Senate seat consisting entirely of Lewiston by only 83 votes out of over 13,000 cast, making this the second-closest state Senate race this year. Democrats losing this seat would have truly been a disaster, since this is one of only three state senate seats in Maine that has never been won by a Republican since 1990 (the other two are the Orono-Old Town seat and the inner Portland seat). In the state House, none of the seats were quite as close as the state senate seat, but they were still quite a bit closer than usual for the Democrats (who still won all four of them).
The Republican wave didn’t let up in the western part of Androscoggin. Incumbent state Senator John Cleveland (D-Auburn) was defeated by a wide 58-42 margin by Republican Eric Brakey, also of Auburn. Unlike John Tuttle in Sanford, Cleveland didn’t even win his hometown (Brakey won Auburn by 5 points), and Cleveland was blown out in the outlying towns, not getting over 36 percent in any of New Gloucester, Poland, Mechanic Falls, or Minot. The wave was just as strong in the state House, as Republican Bruce Bickford defeated Democratic incumbent R. Wayne Werts by a 55-45 margin in Auburn, and Republican David Sawicki held a Republican open seat that voted 56 percent for Obama in 2012. Democrats did manage to hold the central Auburn seat, which Gina Melaragno won with 47 percent against a Republican and an independent. Republican incumbent Eleanor Espling of New Gloucester won her re-election easily.
Oxford County
Oxford County was also hit particularly hard by the Republican wave. Incumbent state Senator James Hamper (R-Oxford) was easily re-elected by 25 points in his district in southern Oxford and northern Cumberland Counties. He won every town except for Brownfield, which was his opponent’s hometown, and he got a massive 77 percent in his hometown of Oxford. The state House results in this area are incredibly bleak, as Democrats lost three of the four seats they held in this area. The only surviving Democrat is Christine Powers of Naples, who narrowly won re-election by only 1 percent. She lost every town except her hometown, however her 12-point win in Naples was enough to secure the tiny victory. Her two neighboring Democrats were not as lucky. Democrat Helen Rankin of Hiram lost re-election by 5 points to Republican Nathan Wadsworth, also of Hiram. Rankin won only Fryeburg, while losing the other four towns in the district. Sharing her fate was Democrat Lisa Villa of Harrison, who lost re-election by a 10-point margin to Phyllis Ginzler of Bridgton. Villa won Harrison, but was blown out in Bridgton (which is much larger than Harrison). Republican Tom Winsor of Norway won an easy re-election, and Republican Kathleen Dillingham of Oxford easily held her party’s open seat. Finally, in Paris, the Democratic incumbent was term-limited (and actually was elected state Treasurer by the state legislature), and Republican Lloyd Herrick easily picked up that open seat for the Republicans.
Incumbent state Senator John Patrick of Rumford won re-election by a relatively soft 54-46 margin against Republican Joseph Martin, also of Rumford. The map for this election wasn’t too interesting – Patrick won Rumford and Mexico by wide margins, Bethel and Livermore Falls by solid but slightly smaller margins, and most of the other towns were pretty close between the two candidates. In the state House, Republican Richard Pickett managed to pick up the open Mexico-Dixfield district (which voted 62% for Obama) by winning Dixfield heavily and losing by only a small margin in Mexico, a usually very blue town. In Rumford, highly popular Democratic incumbent Matthew Peterson easily won re-election, getting 68 percent of the vote and making him the only Democratic House member in Oxford County now. And in the vast rural areas north and west of Rumford, a marquee race decided who would replace Republican Jarrod Crockett, who retired. After a lot of attention from both sides, Republican Frances Head of Bethel defeated Democrat Callie Pecunies of Albany Township by 6 points. It was definitely not a good year to be a Democrat in Oxford County.
Franklin County
Franklin County has a very strong local Republican organization that seems to specialize in finding moderate, electable candidates to run for the state legislature. The most prominent of these individuals is undoubtedly state Senator Tom Saviello of Wilton. Saviello was first elected to the state House as a Democrat, but then became an Independent and eventually a Republican while retaining his moderate political beliefs. Saviello would likely be a Democrat in a Southern or Western state, and he seems to be to the left of Olympia Snowe and to the right of Lincoln Chafee. Saviello couples these political beliefs with a strong advocacy for his constituents and his towns that has made him incredibly popular. In his district, where Obama received 58 percent of the vote in 2012, Saviello was re-elected with an astounding 72 percent of the vote – a 30-point overperformance, the largest overperformance in any state senate district this year. This success carried over into the state House, where Republicans won 4 of the 5 state House districts that mostly overlap with Saviello’s Senate district. Republican incumbent Russell Black of Wilton won a huge re-election, getting 69 percent of the vote and losing only Chesterville, his opponent’s hometown. Republican Andrew Buckland held the open seat in Farmington for his party, which was a key hold since Farmington voted over 60 percent for Obama. Republican Thomas Skolfield won a sprawling district stretching into Somerset County; he won most of the areas in Franklin County by wide margins but lost the towns in Somerset County, allowing him to win by 10 points. Paul Gilbert of Jay, the sole Democrat to represent Franklin County in the state legislature, easily won re-election by 31 points. And in the portion of Saviello’s district that is in Kennebec County, Republican Gary Hilliard of Belgrade easily won yet another open seat, this time in a swingy district, yet again losing only his challenger’s hometown.
Kennebec County
Senate district 14, which is south of Augusta and contains Gardiner and Winthrop, was left open this year, and former state senator Earle McCormick (R-West Gardiner) won it, winning by a 53-39 margin while an independent took 8 percent. McCormick defeated Democrat David Bustin of Hallowell, who ran for this seat in 2012 and lost narrowly. McCormick won heavily in his hometown of West Gardiner as well as in Monmouth and Pittston, while Bustin only won Readfield narrowly and Hallowell by a wide margin. Democrats in the state House actually held up quite well in this area, as the three House districts located entirely within this Senate district are all held by Democrats. Democrat Gay Grant of Gardiner won by a solid 10-point margin despite losing Farmingdale. The neighboring district, consisting of Hallowell, Manchester, and West Gardiner, was vacated by a term-limited Democrat, and another Democrat, Charlotte Warren of Hallowell, won it also by a 10-point margin. Warren won Hallowell in a landslide, won West Gardiner narrowly, and lost Manchester, home to her opponent. Just west of Manchester lies Winthrop and Readfield, which are represented by Craig Hickman, the only African-American in the state legislature. Hickman is one of the success stories of this election, as he won re-election by a massive 29-point margin in a district that Obama won by only 10 points. This is one of the largest Democratic overperformances in the state legislature this year. I would love to see Hickman run for the state Senate some day.
In the Augusta area, incumbent state Senator Roger Katz (R-Augusta) won re-election in a massive landslide. Katz is known as a bona fide moderate, and it paid off for him as he received 72 percent of the vote and massive majorities in each of the five towns he represents. However, his landslide did not prevent Democrats from holding their own in the state House. In 2012, both of the House seats in Augusta were picked up by young, moderate Republicans. This year, one of them didn’t run for re-election, and was replaced by Democrat Donna Doore, while the other, Matthew Pouliot, won re-election in a landslide. In Oakland and Sidney, Republican incumbent Robert Nutting of Oakland won re-election with a solid, though not hugely inspiring, 8-point victory. Democratic incumbent Lori Fowle of Vassalboro easily won re-election, getting 63 percent in her hometown and winning the portion of Augusta in her district while losing her opponent’s hometown. The China-based district that was left open by Republican H. David Cotta’s being term-limited saw primaries on both sides, although ultimately Republican Timothy Theriault won in a blowout in this most conservative district of Kennebec County.
The Waterville area experienced a major upset as first-term state Senator Colleen Lachowicz of Waterville, who didn’t seem to be in any particular danger, was defeated by a 10-point margin by Republican Scott Cyrway of Benton, a deputy in the Kennebec County Sheriff’s Office. Lachowicz won Waterville by a solid 21-point margin, but lost every other town in the district, most in landslides. Even Fairfield, which was added to the district in redistricting, voted for Cyrway 65-35. In the state House, both Democratic incumbents from Waterville won re-election easily, however Karen Kusiak, the incumbent Democrat representing Fairfield, lost re-election to the man she beat in 2012, John Picchiotti. In Winslow, the opposite happened, as the race was also a rematch of a close 2012 race, but the Democratic incumbent, Catherine Nadeau, won re-election by a 12-point margin. Finally, there was one positive surprise in the area for the Democrats. In a district that contains the Kennebec County town of Clinton as well as the Somerset County towns of Pittsfield and Detroit, Democratic incumbent Stanley Short won re-election by 4 points, winning all three of the towns in his district. I had pegged him as one of the incumbents most likely to lose, since he had won his seat by only 4 votes in 2012 and his seat is generally a Republican one at the state and local level. However, he somehow survived, even as Democratic incumbents in bluer districts were being defeated.
Lincoln County
Democratic incumbent Chris Johnson is a survivor – that’s really the only way that I can describe him. After winning a special election in early 2012 for Lincoln County’s state senate seat that had been vacated by a Republican, Johnson was a top target for Republicans in 2012, and he won by only 171 votes, or less than a point. With a margin like that, it made sense that he would be on the Republicans’ target list again this year, and he was. He faced the same opponent that he had in 2012, former state Rep. Leslie Fossel of Alna. This year he managed to pull off a win by 2 points, or about 350 votes. He did well in Newcastle and Damariscotta, and limited his loss in Waldoboro, while losing Jefferson and Wiscasset by wider margins. Since both candidates were well-known and from very small towns, the kind of parochialism that is so prominent in many other elections in Maine was absent here.
Sadly, the news from the state House wasn’t as good. Democratic incumbent Timothy Marks of Pittston was defeated by 5 points by Republican Jeffrey Hanley, also of Pittston. Marks won Randolph and Alna, and only narrowly lost Wiscasset, but was heavily defeated in his hometown. As a general rule in Maine, if you lose your hometown, you’re pretty much sunk. Next door in the open Boothbay area district, which was vacated by Democrat Bruce McDonald, Democrats did not nominate a candidate, and instead supported independent William Coombs of Edgecomb. Unfortunately, Coombs lost by 21 points to Republican Stephanie Hawke of Boothbay Harbor, who won both Boothbay and Boothbay Harbor by wide margins. In the Newcastle-Damariscotta district, incumbent Democrat Michael Devin of Newcastle easily won re-election, losing only a small portion of one town. In the northern Lincoln County district, including Jefferson and Whitefield, incumbent Republican Deb Sanderson of Chelsea won re-election unopposed. This was a major fail by Democrats, as Sanderson is one of the most conservative members of the state legislature. Finally, in the Waldoboro district, two incumbents, Ellen Winchenbach (R-Waldoboro) and Jeffrey Evangelos (I-Friendship) were placed together. Despite Waldoboro containing the majority of the district, Evangelos narrowly defeated Winchenbach by winning both Friendship and Union and limiting his losses in the remainder of the district. Evangelos is the third Independent incumbent to win re-election this year (after Campbell and Chipman).
Knox County
Despite the closeness of some races, Democrats did relatively well in Knox County this year. One-term Democratic incumbent Ed Mazurek did not run for re-election, and Democrat David Miramant of Camden successfully held the seat against Republican Paula Sutton of Warren. Here, the parochialism that was absent from the Lincoln County senate election was on full display, as Sutton won Warren with 70 percent of the vote, and also won the neighboring towns of Friendship, Cushing, and Union by wide margins. However, Miramant won 69 percent in Camden as well as solid wins in Rockland and Rockport to claim the seat. In the state House, all three Democratic incumbents in Knox County won re-election. Charles Kruger of Thomaston won a strong 20-point win, while Elizabeth Dickerson of Rockland posted an underwhelming 4-point win, and Joan Welch of Rockport got 52 percent in a three-way race, with an independent in second place with 32 percent. Possibly the strangest state House race in the entire state occurred in a newly created district in inland Knox County. Much of the area had been represented by Jeffrey Evangelos, but his hometown of Friendship was removed from the district. This district thus featured an open four-way race between a Republican, a Green, and two independents. Both the Republican, Wesley Richardson of Warren, and one of the independents, Gary Sukeforth of Appleton, had formerly represented this area in the past, and they proved to be the two strongest candidates. Ultimately, Sukeforth won the race by a 44-40 margin, with the Green getting 6 percent and the other independent capturing the rest. Richardson won his hometown of Warren and also got a narrow win in Hope, however Sukeforth got a solid win in Union and a massive 31-point win in Appleton, ensuring his victory. Even in independent-loving Maine, four-way races are very rare and often unpredictable, and this race was certainly a clear example of that.
Waldo County
Waldo County is known for its very close races and for lots of seats switching parties, and this year certainly didn’t disappoint. The state senate race in Waldo County between Republican incumbent Mike Thibodeau of Winterport and Democrat Jonathan Fulford of Monroe ended up being the third-closest race in Maine this year, after the Lewiston race and the infamous SD-25 race. Thibodeau, as usual, did well in his hometown of Winterport as well as the surrounding towns and the areas on the periphery of the county, while Fulford did exceptionally well in Belfast, Northport, and Lincolnville as well as his hometown of Monroe. Ultimately, Thibodeau won by only 135 votes. If not for the Republican wave, Fulford would almost certainly have won, and he should definitely try again in 2016. The state House results were mixed. In the safest Democratic seat in the county, Democrat Erin Herbig of Belfast won re-election with 76 percent of the vote against only a Green. In the Republican-held open seat in the southern part of the county, Democrat Christine Burstein won a solid 9-point victory, buoyed largely by her massive 40-point win in her hometown of Lincolnville. In the western part of the county, scandal-plagued one-term Democrat Brian Jones of Freedom was heavily defeated, 61-39, by Republican MaryAnne Kinney of Knox. And in the Winterport area, two incumbents, Republican James Gillway of Searsport and Independent Joseph Brooks of Winterport, were combined in the same district. Gillway ended up winning easily, 59-41, as he cut Brooks’ margin in Winterport and won the other three towns in the district by wide margins.
Hancock County
In strong contrast to Waldo County, not a single state legislative district changed parties in Hancock County (which is odd, since Waldo and Hancock are demographically very similar). Incumbent state Senator Brian Langley (R-Ellsworth) won re-election by a 55-45 margin against Democrat Theodore Koffman of Bar Harbor. Langley won his hometown of Ellsworth by a huge 38-point margin, and won the entire eastern part of Hancock County in massive landslides. He also substantially cut into Koffman’s margins in the southwestern part of Hancock County, even winning Deer Isle (something that very few Republicans can do). Koffman performed very well on Mount Desert Island, and specifically in his hometown of Bar Harbor, but his inability to hold the Democratic base together on the mainland cost him the election. However, Langley’s victory here didn’t prevent all four Democratic state Reps from winning re-election. Ralph Chapman (D-Brooksville) won a solid 15-point victory in his Blue Hill-based district that, compared to the remainder of Maine, has substantially fewer swing voters. Walter Kumiega (D-Deer Isle) won an easy 65-35 victory in his district that is known simply as the “islands district”, as it contains all of the small islands off the coast of Knox and Hancock Counties, in addition to a portion of Mount Desert Island (MDI). The remainder of MDI is represented by Brian Hubbell (D-Bar Harbor), who won a massive 35-point victory this year, losing only Lamoine, the one town in his district that is on the mainland. Democratic incumbent Louis Luchini of Ellsworth also won an easy re-election, as the voters of Ellsworth again split their tickets en masse between him and Langley. The eastern part of Hancock County is represented by Republican Richard Malaby, who easily won re-election 61-39 this year. Finally, a new district was created that stretches from Stockton Springs in Waldo County to Dedham in Hancock County, and, lacking an incumbent, it was easily picked up by Republican Karleton Ward of Dedham, 64-36.
Somerset County
Switching gears for a minute, we now move over to Somerset County. Incumbent state Senator Rodney Whittemore won a very easy re-election, by a 67-33 margin, and won every town in his district by wide margins. Things weren’t that much more exciting on the state House front: one Democratic incumbent, Jeff McCabe of Skowhegan, easily won re-election; one Republican incumbent, Larry Dunphy of Embden, easily won re-election; and one Democratic incumbent, Ann Dorney of Norridgewock, was defeated by 7 points. Dorney’s seat had been held by Republicans for many years before she picked it up in 2012, and it reverted to form this year, giving the Republican wins in Madison and Norridgewock while Dorney was only able to win the small town of Solon. In addition, in the eastern part of Somerset County, outside of Whittemore’s district, Republican Joel Stetkis of Canaan easily held an open seat for his party.
Piscataquis County
Elections in Piscataquis County are usually the most boring of any county in Maine, and with good reason: Republicans always win there. This year was no different, as Republican Paul Davis defeated an incumbent in the primary for the state senate, and then won the general election with a massive 75 percent of the vote. Things weren’t much more exciting in Piscataquis’ two House seats, as the Republican was unopposed in one of them, and the other district was held by Republicans with 65 percent of the vote. Democrats won only a single tiny town in a single state legislative race in Piscataquis this year.
Penobscot County
Penobscot County, being diverse in probably every way except race, is always interesting to look at politically. I first examine the conservative western part of the county, which, guess what, stayed true to form in this election. Incumbent state senator Andre Cushing of Hampden won re-election by a massive 69-31 margin, getting at least 63 percent in each town. In the state House, Republicans were similarly dominant, with Republican incumbents Kenneth Fredette, Stacey Guerin, Roger Reed, and Raymond Wallace all winning re-election in landslides, and without losing any towns in any of their districts. However, there was one major surprise here. In the district containing Hampden and Newburgh, Republican incumbent Brian Duprey was defeated 51-49 by Democrat James Davitt. Davitt won Hampden, home to both candidates, by a 7-point margin, while Duprey heavily won the much smaller town of Newburgh. This was a major upset, since this district voted for Mitt Romney. In fact, this was the only state legislative election in Maine where a Democrat defeated a Republican incumbent in a Romney district, and in fact I’m not aware of that happening anywhere else in New England in 2014. Unlike some other red-district Democratic wins, this one can’t be explained by parochialism, since both candidates were from Hampden. I honestly don’t have an explanation for this result, which is undoubtedly one of the most mystifying results in Maine in 2014.
The largest city in Penobscot County is Bangor, however not much exciting happened in Bangor in 2014. Incumbent state Senator Geoff Gratwick was re-elected, actually by a larger margin than he won by in 2012, which was quite impressive. In addition, Bangor’s four state representatives, all Democrats, all won re-election with at least 55 percent of the vote.
That leads us to the area of Penobscot County east of Bangor across the Penobscot River. In the state senate district located here, in 2012 Republican Ed Youngblood won by winning the Bangor area heavily while losing the Bucksport area. This year, the result was the same – a 56-44 Republican win – but the coalitions were reversed. Republican Kimberly Rosen of Bucksport won the area surrounding her hometown by huge margins, even getting over 70 percent in Bucksport (which Obama got 55 percent in). The Rosen name is golden in Bucksport, as Youngblood’s predecessor in the state senate was Kimberly’s husband Richard Rosen, and both Rosens have represented Bucksport in the state House in the past. However, the Democratic candidate, Paul P. Davis of Brewer, managed to win his hometown, which is by far the largest town in the district. He also cut into normal Republican margins in Eddington and Lincoln, and won Bradley. In the state House in this area, Republican Richard Campbell won re-election in the Bucksport-Orrington district, no doubt helped by Kim Rosen’s dominating performance in the district that she and her husband have both represented. In addition, Republicans easily held the open Eddington-Holden district with Peter Lyford of Eddington, who won every town in his district. However, it wasn’t all bad news for the Dems, as Democratic incumbent Arthur Verow of Brewer narrowly won re-election in a district that Romney won.
Finally, we come to the areas north of Bangor along the Penobscot River. The state senate district here was open from Emily Cain’s ultimately unsuccessful run for Congress. This district is one of three that has not elected a Republican since before 1990, and it stayed true to form this year by electing state Rep. James Dill of Old Town. Dill lost many of the smaller towns in the district, but he won Orono and Old Town by massive margins, which is all a Democrat needs in order to win this district. He also won both Milford and the Millinocket area. In the state House, Democratic incumbent Ryan Tipping-Spitz of Orono easily won re-election, and Democrat Michelle Dunphy won her election by a solid margin to succeed James Dill in the Old Town seat. In the district just north of Old Town, Democrat Robert Duchesne of Hudson attempted a comeback after being term-limited in 2012. Republicans tried to prevent him from returning to the state House by adding the strongly-Republican town of Corinth to the district, however this proved unsuccessful. Duchesne won every other town in the district, most by landslide margins, on his way to a 5-point victory in a district that voted only 46 percent for Obama in 2012. This is the most Republican state legislative district in Maine to be held by a Democrat. North of this district, there wasn’t much excitement. Republican Sheldon Hanington of Lincoln won his first term in the state House unopposed, and Democrat Stephen Stanley of Medway easily won re-election in his Millinocket-area district.
Washington County
Incumbent state Senator David Burns (R-Whiting) won re-election by a 55-45 margin over Democrat Anne Perry of Calais. This was a rematch from 2012, where Burns won 43-38-19, so both candidates improved on their 2012 performance. Burns won most of the district, including the conservative southwestern towns and the Machias area. Perry won only her hometown of Calais, some nearby small towns, the liberal town of Eastport, and the two Passamaquoddy reservations. The state House elections featured a very interesting occurrence. The district in the southwestern part of Washington County, which was an open Republican-held seat, was won by a Democrat, Robert Alley of Beals, by a 5-point margin. This is the most Republican district entirely in Washington County. Alley lost some of the towns in the western part of the district, but they were by small margins, and he more than made up for that with major wins in his hometown of Beals and in the larger neighboring town of Jonesport. However, in the district just east, which includes the Machias area as well as Eastport and Lubec, Democratic incumbent Katherine Cassidy of Lubec was defeated by Republican William Tuell of East Machias. Cassidy won heavily in Eastport and narrowly in Lubec, but Tuell’s margins in East Machias and Cutler sealed the deal for him. This is the most Democratic district in Washington County. Thus, we have the strange circumstance of the most Democratic district in Washington County being held by a Republican, and the most Republican district in Washington County being held by a Democrat.
In the other districts in Washington County, Republican Joyce Maker was easily re-elected in her Calais-based district, and Republican incumbents Lawrence Lockman and Beth Turner, who don’t live in Washington County but who represent large portions of it, were both re-elected easily.
Aroostook County
Aroostook County is divided into two state Senate districts. The northern one is generally considered to be Democratic, and the southern one is considered to be Republican. However, this year, Republicans won both districts, but they actually won the northern district by a wider margin. The southern district saw an open-seat race since the Republican incumbent, Roger Sherman of Houlton, was term-limited. In that race, Democrat-turned-Republican former state Rep. Michael Willette of Presque Isle narrowly defeated Democrat, former state Senator, and former state SoS Michael Carpenter of Houlton. The pattern of political geography in this district is the exact opposite of how elections usually are here. Willette did very well in Presque Isle, the largest town in the district, as well as its surrounding towns. However, Carpenter did incredibly well in the normally-Republican southern part of the district, winning Houlton by a 2-1 margin and winning all of Houlton’s neighboring towns as well, including the usually-deep-red town of Hodgdon. Ultimately, Carpenter got three more votes than Willette in the Aroostook portion of the district, but Willette did well in the Penobscot portion, allowing him to win by only 1.5 percent. However, this area stayed true to form in the state House races. Roger Sherman, the term-limited state senator here, was elected to the state House unopposed (term-limited state senators moving to the state House is actually quite common in Maine). Republican Ricky Long of Sherman won re-election in a landslide. In the district to the south and west of Presque Isle, Republican Dustin White of Washburn won that open seat by 7 points. And in the Presque Isle district, Democrat Robert Saucier (the guy who defeated Michael Willette in 2012) narrowly held onto his seat by only 30 votes.
The northern state senate district in Aroostook, including the St. John Valley, Caribou, and the towns surrounding Caribou, is where history was made this year. The St. John Valley was one of the first places in Maine to turn Democratic, back in the 1950s, and it had been represented in the state Senate entirely by Democrats since then. Until now. This year, after being left open by Troy Jackson, the district was won by former state Rep. and 2012 candidate Peter Edgecomb of Caribou, who defeated term-limited state Rep. Charles Theriault of Madawaska by a 5-point margin. As the map of the state senate results shows, this was the most regionally divided state senate election this year, as the St. John Valley went overwhelmingly to Theriault while the Caribou area went even more overwhelmingly to Edgecomb. In the state House, Republican Anthony Edgecomb (not sure if he’s related to Peter Edgecomb) won a Republican-held open seat based in Fort Fairfield, while Republican Carol McElwee of Caribou won re-election unopposed. In the St. John Valley, Democrat Roland Martin easily held Charles Theriault’s seat for the Dems. And in the final state House district, containing the western St. John Valley as well as Ashland, we saw a political titan resurrect himself. Democrat John L. Martin of Eagle Lake had been in the state legislature continuously since 1964. He served as Speaker of the House from 1975 to 1994. He was term-limited in 2000, so he moved up to the state Senate and served 8 years there. He then moved back down to the state House. But then, after 48 years in the state legislature, he was unexpectedly defeated in 2012 by Republican Allen Nadeau. This year, he was successful at taking back his seat, by about the same margin that he lost it in 2012.
So how did Democrats manage to lose both state Senate seats in Aroostook this year? It all has to do with geography, and more specifically, with the appalling population losses that Aroostook has suffered. Aroostook has been losing population every decade since the 1960s. The St. John Valley towns are at the forefront of this population loss. Also, due to an Air Force base closing in the 1990s, the town of Limestone lost three quarters of its population in just a few years. In the recent redistricting, one of the St. John Valley state House seats was eliminated and moved to the Portland suburbs. And the state Senate seats have also had to expand. The state Senate seat covering the St. John Valley didn’t even include Caribou until the 2000s, and when it did, it was really a forced marriage. And the most recent redistricting added even more of the towns around Caribou, thus making the district more receptive to a state senator from Caribou. And also, that expansion caused the southern Aroostook district to expand as well, forcing it outside of Aroostook and contributing to Michael Willette’s narrow win this year. So, moral of the story, if Democrats want to continue to do well in Aroostook, they need to make serious inroads in the Caribou-Presque Isle area.
The final results of the 2014 state legislative elections were Republicans taking control of the state Senate by a 20-15 margin, and Democrats holding the state House by a 79-68 margin, with 4 independents.
Whew! That was a long diary. If you’re still with me, I’d love to hear any questions, comments, or thoughts that you may have.