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9:10 AM PT: Special Elections: It's been three months since we've had any legislative special elections! But Johnny Longtorso is right back in the saddle. First, Texas' Saturday night special:
Texas SD-18: This is a seat located more or less between Houston and Austin, vacated by state Comptroller-elect Republican Glenn Hegar. There are two Democrats running: Cynthia Drabek, who lost a race for the Texas House last month, and Christian Hawkins, an attorney. Also running are three Republicans: businessman Gary Gates, former Simonton City Council member Charles Gregory, and State Rep. Lois Kolkhorst. If no candidate gets a majority, it will go to a runoff. This is a 67-32 Romney district, so an upset for the Democrats is unlikely, to put it mildly.
And on Tuesday:
California SD-35: This is the seat vacated by convicted felon Rod Wright, located in southern LA. There are four candidates running: Democrats Louis Dominguez, Isadore Hall III, and Hector Serrano, and Republican James Spencer. Hall, a former Assemblyman whom you may recall from his brief run for CA-44 in 2011, is the only candidate of the bunch with political experience. At 80-18 Obama, there's little chance of the Democrats losing this one.
Virginia HD-04: This is the seat of now-State Sen. Ben Chafin. The candidates are Democrat Donnie Rife, a Dickenson County Supervisor, and Republican Todd Pillion, a dentist. Prior to Chafin, a Democrat held this seat, but Southwestern Virginia is hostile territory for Democrats these days. Ken Cuccinelli carried the seat 66-30 in 2013, while Mitt Romney won a similar 68-30 margin here in 2012.
9:17 AM PT: WA-09: It seemed like a longshot anyway, but Democratic Rep. Adam Smith, whose name came up as a possible option to replace Chuck Hagel as secretary of defense, is staying put. Barack Obama has instead nominated Pentagon official Ashton Carter.
9:59 AM PT: NH State House: Something very unusual happened in the Granite State on Wednesday—very unusual indeed. After a century of Republican dominance, New Hampshire's enormous, 400-member state House has become notoriously subject to the winds of change. It's now switched hands four times in the past five election cycles, including the most recent. So with the chamber now back under GOP control, it seemed a given that the party would re-appoint its former speaker, Bill O'Brien, who led the body following the 2010 wave.
O'Brien, though, is an extremist and a bully, and he earned plenty of blame from fellow Republicans when the House went back to the Democrats in 2012. Those attributes certainly haven't stopped lots of other Republicans from advancing (or re-advancing) through the ranks, but when the full chamber gathered to pick a new Speaker, O'Brien failed to capture a majority on the first vote against Democratic Leader Steve Shurtleff.
The House actually uses a secret ballot, but it's clear what happened: A handful of renegade Republicans, sick of O'Brien's abuse, sided with Democrats to deny him a win. At that point, Shurtleff dropped out and state Rep. Shawn Jasper, a Republican, entered the fray. After two more ballots, enough Republicans sided with Democrats to give Jasper an outright victory, making him speaker.
While this of course is a debacle for O'Brien, it's good news for Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan, who'd make a very appealing candidate for Senate and at least won't have to face a state House bent on destroying her for the next two years. And needless to say, this entire episode has conservatives in New Hampshire enraged beyond measure. The wife of one loyalist Republican said that serving in the House "is like being trapped in a bad marriage" with a "traitor as Speaker." After some exciting nuptials, Democrats might actually be in for a much more relaxing honeymoon.
10:04 AM PT: LA-Sen: Rasmussen: Bill Cassidy (R): 56, Mary Landrieu (D): 40 (Nov. 20: 56-41 Cassidy).
10:43 AM PT: FL-13: Here's a positive follow-up to a small but depressing story from earlier this year. First, though, some background. One of the DCCC's biggest recruitment failures this year came in Florida's swingy 13th District, which Democrat Alex Sink narrowly lost to Republican David Jolly in a March special election. The D-Trip recruited Marine vet Ed Jany to run against Jolly in the fall, even though Jany wasn't a registered Democrat and would have had to run as an independent. To avoid splitting the vote, the party had to make sure that no actual Democrats were running on the Democratic line, and they resorted to some pretty grotesque tactics to keep African-American minister Manuel Sykes from doing so.
The prime offender was Pinellas County Democratic chair Mark Hanisee, who made over-the-top threats to Sykes about his political future, then publicly declared that he didn't want Sykes in the race because "[i]f you check the demographics, it's like a 2 percent, 3 percent African-American district." That was Hanisee's not-at-all-subtle way of saying a black candidate couldn't win in the 13th, which was not only offensive but stupid, considering that Barack Obama carried the district—twice.
What ultimately made Hanisee's obnoxious behavior all the more galling was that Jany very quickly dropped out of the race, leaving Jolly completely unopposed in his very first re-election campaign, when he theoretically would have been at his most vulnerable. Sure, it probably didn't matter in the end given how disastrous 2014 was, but no one knew that at the time, and Florida's 13th is emphatically not the kind of districts Democrats can just give up on.
But here's the good news that's finally emerged from this disheartening saga: Hanisee is now out as Pinellas chair. Susan McGrath, a former chair of the Pinellas Stonewall Democrats, just defeated Hanisee in a leadership election, and she immediately promised to do things differently, saying, "We will never go with a seat like D-13 and not have a candidate again." Damn straight.
10:51 AM PT: 2014: A year like 2014 calls for serious introspection, so a couple of weeks ago, we posed an open question to the Daily Kos Election community: What were you wrongest about this cycle? The staff here didn't exempt ourselves, and we shared some thoughts of our own, but the comments generated some truly great discussion. If you haven't had a chance to check it out yet, now is your time.
2:30 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Charlotte Mayor: The Hornet's Nest will be one of a number of major cities to hold its mayoral election next year, and Jim Bradley of WSOC-TV brings us up to speed on where things stand. Former Mecklenburg County Commissioner Jennifer Roberts announced she would run over the summer, and she's still the only notable declared candidate. Roberts was the Democratic nominee in NC-09 back in 2012 and performed surprisingly well, losing to Robert Pittenger only 52-46 even as Romney was carrying the seat 56-43.
It doesn't look like Roberts will have the field to herself though, with fellow Democrat and interim Mayor Dan Clodfelter considering a campaign. Clodfelter was appointed by the city council in April to replace the disgraced Patrick Cannon, who is currently in prison. At the time Clodfelter said he didn't plan to run for a full two-year term but he didn't quite rule it out, and he's sounded more and more like a candidate in recent months.
Councilmembers Vi Lyles and David Howard are also potential Democratic candidates. The filing deadline isn't until July 17, so it may take a while for things to take shape here. The party primary is Sept. 15, with an Oct. 6 runoff if no one takes more than 40 percent in the first round.
Charlotte is a Democratic-leaning city, but it has been open to electing Republican mayors. Gov. Pat McCrory served as the city's chief executive from 1995 to 2009, and Team Red performed respectfully in the 2009 and 2013 open seat races. Former Councilmember Edwin Peacock, who lost to Cannon 53-47 in 2013, says he "doesn't know" if he's interested in another bid. Team Red's bench isn't particularly deep here, but it's unlikely that they'll cede this seat to the Democrats.
2:53 PM PT (Jeff Singer): CA-35: Freshman Democratic Rep. Gloria Negrete McLeod raised some eyebrows when she chose to run for a seat on the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors rather than seek a second term in her safe House seat. When we last checked in with Negrete McLeod just after Election Day, she was trailing Republican Assemblyman Curt Hagman. In California late ballots usually break for the Democrats, but they weren't enough this time: With all the votes in, Hagman prevailed 52-48, and he was recently sworn in as supervisor.