It appears that the Democrats will hold 188 seats in the House in the new 114th Congress, with the Republicans holding 247 (assuming that the Democrats win all of the uncalled races in California and McSally holds her lead in AZ-2). This means that the Democrats will need to win 30 seats in 2016 in order to gain a majority. At first glance, this seems like a tall order, but keep in mind that the Democrats held 256 seats heading into the 2010 elections and we all know how that turned out. With a much larger turnout, a more favorable electorate, a continuously improving economy, a clearer populist agenda, and a popular Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket, winning a majority in the House in 2016 is certainly within the realm of possibility for the Democrats.
The Republicans currently hold seats in 25 districts that Barack Obama won in 2012 and 4 seats in districts where the Presidential vote was tied. In addition, there are another 37 seats in districts where Obama won at least 46 percent of the vote. If the Democrats are to retake a majority in the House, all of these should be considered swing districts and the Democrats should make an effort to compete strongly in all of them.
Believe it or not, there are now only 5 districts in the entire country that were won by Romney in 2012 and are held by Democrats (AZ-1, FL-2, FL-18, MN-7, NE-2) so the Democrats will not need to play much defense. In addition, without many conservative Democrats and Blue Dogs in the caucus, the Democrats should be able to forge a much more coherent progressive agenda to put before the voters.
Let’s take a look at the seats most likely to flip to the Democrats to win back the majority…
First, with the recent court decision affecting Virginia’s Congressional districts, it appears likely that VA-4, currently held by Randy Forbes, will be drawn to be much more favorable to Democrats. If that is the case, then that’s the first seat to check off of our list. Only 29 more to go!
Next, let’s look at 15 districts where Obama won by at least 5 points in 2012. The exact outcome of the 2012 Presidential race is noted for each:
IL-10 (Dold) 58-41
NY-24 (Katko) 57-41
IA-1 (Blum) 56-43
CA-21 (Valadao) 55-44
NV-4 (Hardy) 54-44
NJ-2 (LoBiondo) 54-45
ME-2 (Poliquin) 53-44
FL-26 (Curbelo) 53-47
FL-27 (Ros-Lehtinen) 53-47
NY-19 (Gibson) 52-46
NY-21 (Stefanik) 52-46
CO-6 (Coffman) 52-47
NJ-3 (MacArthur) 52-47
NY-2 (King) 52-47
NY-11 (Grimm) 52-47
Five of these will almost definitely flip back to the Democrats with the 2016 electorate and better candidates running: IL-10, NY-24, IA-1, NV-4, and ME-2.
CA-21 is a race in which the Democrats should heavily invest. David Valadao was first elected in 2012 in this heavily Hispanic district. Especially if Obama takes executive action on immigration reform that is opposed by Republicans, this should be a great pickup opportunity.
FL-26 and FL-27 are two heavily Cuban south Florida districts. Curbelo narrowly beat Joe Garcia in 2014, 51-49, and a candidate with less baggage should be able to win it back. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen has been entrenched since 1989, but her district is trending blue and staunch Republican opposition to immigration reform could push voters toward someone who would contribute to a Democratic majority in the House. She should never be allowed to run unopposed as she did in 2014.
Frank LoBiondo in NJ-2 is someone who absolutely must get a strong, well-funded challenge if the Democrats have any hope to win back the House. For some reason, he didn’t have strong challengers even in 2006 or 2008. This seat is way too blue to be held by a Republican.
New York State provides a multitude of great pickup opportunities in 2016, with NY-19 and NY-21 being the strongest. Both seats will need a strong candidate to convince voters not to split their tickets. Peter King in NY-2 is a bigger challenge as he is much more entrenched. The indicted Mike Grimm in NY-11 should be able to be taken out by a Staten Island Democrat if he’s not in jail. Former Congressman Mike McMahon would be a good choice here.
Mike Coffman in CO-6 will always be one of the top Democratic targets until he is finally defeated. Joe Miklosi came closer in 2012 than Andrew Romanoff did in 2014; he would be a great choice to run again.
Higher turnout in 2016 should also help a challenger to freshman Tom MacArthur in NJ-3. The challenger will need to be well-funded to compete on the expensive airwaves in this district.
The next tier of seats are the 14 districts where Obama won by 4 points or less or tied in 2012:
CA-10 (Denham) 51-47
IA-3 (Young) 51-47
IL-12 (Bost) 50-48
WA-8 (Reichert) 50-48
FL-13 (Jolly) 50-49
MN-3 (Paulsen) 50-49
NV-3 (Heck) 50-49
NH-1 (Guinta) 50-49
NY-1 (Zeldin) 50-49
VA-2 (Rigell) 50-49
IL-13 (Davis) 49-49
MN-2 (Kline) 49-49
NY-22 (Hanna) 49-49
PA-8 (OPEN) 49-49
NH-1 seems to flip back and forth every cycle, so it should surprise no one if Carol Shea-Porter runs again and wins in 2016.
IA-3, IL-12, FL-13, and NY-1 are all held by vulnerable freshmen. David Young was helped significantly by Bruce Braley’s poor Senate race performance in Iowa, while Mike Bost was helped by Pat Quinn’s immense unpopularity in southern Illinois. David Jolly only narrowly beat Alex Sink in the special election earlier in 2014 and a better candidate who is from the district should be able to beat him. NY-1 was of course held by Tim Bishop for many years and a challenger with less baggage should be able to take it back.
CA-10 is one of many California districts that is trending blue. Denham was first elected in 2010 and should be beatable. Dave Reichert in WA-8 has been near the top of Democratic pickup lists for over a decade now, but hasn’t gotten a strong challenge in the last few cycles. Paulsen and Kline in Minnesota are also very worthy of stronger challenges than they have been receiving. Strong turnout should help against Joe Heck in NV-3.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens to VA-2 after the Virginia map is redrawn, but as of now, Scott Rigell is certainly vulnerable to a strong challenge. Rodney Davis in IL-13 only won by 1000 votes in 2012. Richard Hanna in NY-22 incredibly went unopposed for reelection in 2014.
Finally, PA-8 is a great pickup opportunity with Mike Fitzgerald’s recent retirement announcement.
Next, here are the 37 districts where Obama won at least 46 percent of the vote in 2012. These could be won by Hillary Clinton if she runs a strong enough campaign:
MI-6 (Upton) 49-50
PA-7 (Meehan) 49-50
VA-4 (Forbes) 49-50
VA-10 (Comstock) 49-50
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart) 49-51
AZ-2 (McSally) 48-50
CA-25 (Knight) 48-50
NY-23 (Reed) 48-50
OH-10 (Turner) 48-50
WA-3 (Herrera-Beutler) 48-50
MI-7 (Walberg) 48-51
MI-8 (Bishop) 48-51
NJ-5 (Garrett) 48-51
OH-14 (Joyce) 48-51
PA-6 (Costello) 48-51
PA-15 (Dent) 48-51
TX-23 (Hurd) 48-51
WI-7 (Duffy) 48-51
WI-8 (Ribble) 48-51
CA-39 (Royce) 47-51
FL-7 (Mica) 47-52
MI-11 (Trott) 47-52
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen) 47-52
WI-1 (Ryan) 47-52
CA-49 (Issa) 46-52
CO-3 (Tipton) 46-52
OH-1 (Chabot) 46-52
OH-15 (Stivers) 46-52
PA-16 (Pitts) 46-52
FL-10 (Webster) 46-53
FL-15 (Ross) 46-53
MI-3 (Amash) 46-53
NJ-7 (Lance) 46-53
VA-1 (Wittman) 46-53
VA-5 (Hurt) 46-53
WI-6 (Grothman) 46-53
MI-4 (Moolenaar) 46-54
The most intriguing of these, in my opinion, are:
MI-6, where Obama actually won with 53 percent in 2008. Upton has been in Congress since 1986 and could be a retirement candidate. Larry Lessig targeted this race in 2014 and some polls showed that it might be closer than it turned out to be.
PA-7, the bluest of the Philly suburb seats that are held by Republicans.
VA-10, featuring a freshman Republican in blue trending northern Virginia.
AZ-2, where Ron Barber should be able to perform better than the virtual tie that occurred this year.
MI-7 and NJ-5, where Walberg and Garrett are ultra-conservative running in competitive “purple” districts.
TX-23, which has been flipping back and forth every cycle. Pete Gallego should run again and win it back.
WI-7, where Sean Duffy continuously makes embarrassing statements.
WI-6, where Glenn Grothman is simply way too conservative for the district.
However, every single one of these seats should be strongly contested. We have seen many examples in 2010 and 2014 where Republicans have won in districts that only voted about 46% for McCain and Romney. Many of these incumbents have not faced serious challenges in many years, or in some cases, they’ve never faced one. Several of them could be vulnerable to lose.
Lastly, here are 12 more districts that are less competitive at the Presidential level, but either have weak incumbents or have had competitive House races in recent cycles:
AK-AL (Young) 41-55
AR-2 (Hill) 43-55
IN-2 (Walorski) 42-56
IA-4 (King) 45-53
KS-3 (Yoder) 44-54
MI-1 (Benishek) 45-54
NC-2 (Ellmers) 42-57
NC-9 (Pittenger) 43-56
NC-13 (Holding) 44-55
OH-16 (Renacci) 45-53
UT-4 (Love) 30-67
WV-2 (Mooney) 38-60
I think the timing could finally be right to knock off Don Young in Alaska. “Wacky” Jackie Walorski almost lost in 2012 in an under-the-radar race. Mia Love and Alex Mooney barely won in 2014 and both are clearly not very popular in their districts.
The three North Carolina districts are gerrymandered to favor Republicans, but include fast-growing suburbs of Charlotte (NC-9) and Raleigh (NC-2 and NC-13) that are quickly trending blue.
In conclusion, as things stand right now, here are my top 30 targets to win back the House in 2016:
1. VA-4 (Forbes) - assuming redistricting
2. NY-24 (Katko)
3. IA-1 (Blum)
4. NV-4 (Hardy)
5. IL-10 (Dold)
6. ME-2 (Poliquin)
7. NH-1 (Guinta)
8. FL-26 (Curbelo)
9. CO-6 (Coffman)
10. IA-3 (Young)
11. TX-23 (Hurd)
12. CA-21 (Valadao)
13. NJ-2 (LoBiondo)
14. NY-11 (Grimm)
15. AZ-2 (McSally)
16, CA-10 (Denham)
17. PA-8 (OPEN)
18. NY-1 (Zeldin)
19. IL-12 (Bost)
20. NJ-3 (MacArthur)
21. FL-13 (Jolly)
22. WI-6 (Grothman)
23. WV-2 (Mooney)
24. UT-4 (Love)
25. NY-21 (Stefanik)
26. NY-19 (Gibson)
27. IL-13 (Davis)
28. NV-3 (Heck)
29. MN-3 (Paulsen)
30. WA-8 (Reichert)
As you can see there are many other districts that can also be competitive and could enter the top 30 with good candidates to challenge the incumbents, and if everything breaks right for the Democrats in 2016, we could see well over 30 competitive House races. I believe that the Democrats should go all out to win as many House seats as possible with the 2016 Presidential electorate.