It's Christmas morning again. It's time to offer up a few predictions on key races across the country which you will find below the fold. Seats marked in bold are those I expect to flip parties. My predictions are certainly more optimistic than those of the national pundits, and likely more so than a lot of DKElections regulars. Nevertheless, check them out below!
The United States Senate
It seems like the Senate is getting the lion share of national media attention, and rightfully so. It's the body where control is most likely to change. This year's class of Senate seats is far more conservative than the country or Senate at-large, and a strong Democratic year in 2008 has forced the Democrats to play defense irregardless of the national electorate.
Democrats start off almost surely losing Senate seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. Additionally, Georgia and Louisiana both look likely to head to a runoff, which could make Senate control unknown for quite some time. If Senate control comes down to one or both, Democrats are at a distinct disadvantage; however, if Senate control is assured, I think Mary Landrieu is favored and Michelle Nunn is no worse than even to win.
Below are individual ratings for the competitive races up for play:
Likely D
- Michigan
Lean D
- New Hampshire
- North Carolina
Tossup/Tilt-D
- Alaska
- Colorado
Tossup/Tilt-I
- Kansas
Tossup/Tilt-R
- Arkansas
- Iowa
Likely R
- Kentucky
Safe R
- Montana
- South Dakota
- West Virginia
Likely Runoff
- Georgia
- Louisiana
The United States House of Representative
Continuing on with federal races, we look to the House. Again, I am more optimistic than most, as I see Democrats netting a single House seat. Here I list only races I predict will flip hands:
Democratic gains:
AR-02
CA-31
FL-02
IA-03
NE-02
NY-11
Republican gains:
NC-07
NH-01
NY-21
UT-04
WV-03
Governorships
Here is where Democrats will likely have their strongest showing of the night, as even national pundits predict Democrats will gain a few State Houses. I predict Democrats pick up 5 GOP seats, while losing 2. Georgia is likely to go to a runoff, where Gov. Deal will likely win, and an Independent is likely to capture the GOP-held State House in Alaska. Individual ratings are below:
Safe D
- Pennsylvania
Likely D
- New Hampshire
- Rhode island
Lean D
- Illinois
- Kansas
Tossup/Tilt-D
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Florida
- Maine
- Michigan
Lean I
- Alaska
Tossup/Tilt-R
- Massachusetts
Lean R
- Wisconsin
Likely R
- Arizona
- Arkansas
Likely Runoff
- Georgia
There you have it. Call me whatever you like, but I have Democrats keeping the Senate, essentially even in the House and netting a substantial amount of Gubernatorial seats. Let's hope for our country's sake national pundits and pollsters have egg on their faces.