Heeeere we go.
The past four days, perhaps predictably (given that we are now one week removed from Election Day in America), has brought the long-awaited avalanche of polling data. For the first time in the 2014 edition of the DKE Polling Wrap, we have over a hundred polls to peruse on the other side of the jump.
And what can we divine from these polls? Well, if you were forced to adopt a general trend from them, it would be a somewhat pessimistic one for Democrats. But there remains enough uncertainty that making definitive conclusions with seven days to go could be an invitation to ridicule come next week. To steal a sports cliché, you'd probably "rather be" suiting up for the red team, based on what the scoreboard says with seven days to go. But the margins are close, and surprisingly uncertain, in several races.
A comprehensive update of all the key races, plus that massive deluge of data, awaits you just past the jump.
AK-Sen (Harstad Research—D): Sen. Mark Begich (D) 44, Dan Sullivan (R) 44, Others 4
AK-Sen (Hellenthal Research—R): Sen. Mark Begich (D) 49, Dan Sullivan (R) 39, Others 7
AK-Sen (YouGov): Dan Sullivan (R) 48, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 44
AR-Sen (NBC News/Marist): Tom Cotton (R) 45, Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 43, Others 5
AR-Sen (Opinion Research Associates—D): Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 45, Tom Cotton (R) 44, Others 2
AR-Sen (YouGov): Tom Cotton (R) 47, Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 42
CO-Sen (Harstad Research—D): Sen. Mark Udall (D) 44, Cory Gardner (R) 43, Others 6
CO-Sen (Keating Research—D): Sen. Mark Udall (D) 45, Cory Gardner (R) 44, Others 5
CO-Sen (Marist): Cory Gardner (R) 46, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 45, Others 3
CO-Sen (Quinnipiac): Cory Gardner (R) 46, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 41, Others 6
CO-Sen (Rasmussen): Cory Gardner (R) 51, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 45
CO-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Mark Udall (D) 47, Cory Gardner (R) 46
DE-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Chris Coons (D) 54, Kevin Wade (R) 36
GA-Sen (Atlanta Journal-Constitution): David Perdue (R) 44, Michelle Nunn (D) 42, Amanda Swafford (L) 6
GA-Sen (CNN/ORC): Michelle Nunn (D) 47, David Perdue (R) 44, Amanda Swafford (L) 5
GA-Sen (Landmark Communications—R): Michelle Nunn (D) 47, David Perdue (R) 47, Amanda Swafford (L) 3
GA-Sen (PPP—D): Michelle Nunn (D) 47, David Perdue (R) 47, Amanda Swafford (L) 3
GA-Sen (YouGov): David Perdue (R) 47, Michelle Nunn (D) 44, Amanda Swafford (R) 1
HI-Sen (Ward Research): Sen. Brian Schatz (D) 71, Cam Cavasso (R) 20
HI-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Brian Schatz (D) 70, Cam Cavasso (R) 18
IA-Sen (Marist): Joni Ernst (R) 49, Bruce Braley (D) 46
IA-Sen (YouGov): Bruce Braley (D) 44, Joni Ernst (R) 44
ID-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Jim Risch (R) 61, Nels Mitchell (D) 30
IL-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Dick Durbin (D) 52, Jim Oberweis (R) 39
KS-Sen (Gravis—R): Greg Orman (I) 47, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 45
KS-Sen (Marist): Greg Orman (I) 45, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 44
KS-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 42, Greg Orman (I) 38
KY-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 45, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 39
LA-Sen—General (Suffolk/USA Today): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 36, Bill Cassidy (R) 35, Rob Maness (R) 11
LA-Sen—General (YouGov): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 37, Bill Cassidy (R) 32, Rob Maness (R) 5
LA-Sen—Runoff (Suffolk/USA Today): Bill Cassidy (R) 48, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 41
LA-Sen—Runoff (YouGov): Bill Cassidy (R) 46, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 42
MA-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Ed Markey (D) 54, Brian Herr (R) 32
ME-Sen (Univ. of New Hampshire): Sen. Susan Collins (R) 65, Shenna Bellows (D) 30
ME-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Susan Collins (R) 54, Shenna Bellows (D) 35
MI-Sen (Rasmussen): Gary Peters (D) 51, Terri Lynn Land (R) 42
MI-Sen (YouGov): Gary Peters (D) 49, Terri Lynn Land (R) 41
MN-Sen (Mason Dixon): Sen. Al Franken (D) 48, Mike McFadden (R) 39
MN-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Al Franken (D) 51, Mike McFadden (R) 41
MS-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Thad Cochran (R) 50, Travis Childers (D) 28
MT-Sen (YouGov): Steve Daines (R) 56, Amanda Curtis (D) 38
NC-Sen (Marist): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 43, Thom Tillis (R) 43, Sean Haugh (L) 7
NC-Sen (Monmouth): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 48, Thom Tillis (R) 46, Sean Haugh (L) 1
NC-Sen (SurveyUSA): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 44, Thom Tillis (R) 44, Sean Haugh (L) 5
NC-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 44, Thom Tillis (R) 41, Sean Haugh (L) 3
NE-Sen (YouGov): Ben Sasse (R) 59, David Domina (D) 30
NH-Sen (New England College): Scott Brown (R) 48, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 47
NH-Sen (Univ. of Mass-Lowell): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 49, Scott Brown (R) 46
NH-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 46, Scott Brown (R) 41
NJ-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Cory Booker (D) 51, Jeff Bell (R) 39
NM-Sen (Albuquerque Journal): Sen. Tom Udall (D) 50, Allen Weh (R) 43
NM-Sen (Vox Populi—R): Sen. Tom Udall (D) 47, Allen Weh (R) 43
NM-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Tom Udall (D) 52, Allen Weh (R) 36
OK-Sen-A (YouGov): Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) 63, Matt Silverstein (D) 27
OK-Sen-B (YouGov): James Lankford (R) 63, Connie Johnson (D) 29
OR-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) 51, Monica Wehby (R) 39
RI-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Jack Reed (D) 65, Mark Zaccaria (R) 20
SC-Sen-A (YouGov): Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) 43, Brad Hutto (D) 28, Thomas Ravenel (I) 8
SC-Sen-B (YouGov): Sen. Tim Scott (R) 57, Joyce Dickerson (D) 28
SD-Sen (Marist): Mike Rounds (R) 43, Rick Weiland (D) 29, Larry Pressler (I) 16
SD-Sen (Mason Dixon): Mike Rounds (R) 42, Rick Weiland (D) 33, Larry Pressler (I) 13
SD-Sen (YouGov): Mike Rounds (R) 38, Rick Weiland (D) 25, Larry Pressler (I) 21
TN-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) 55, Gordon Ball (D) 33
TX-Sen (YouGov): Sen. John Cornyn (R) 57, David Alameel (D) 35
VA-Sen (YouGov): Sen. Mark Warner (D) 49, Ed Gillespie (R) 39
WV-Sen (YouGov): Shelley Moore Capito (R) 56, Natalie Tennant (D) 34
WY-Gov (YouGov): Sen. Mike Enzi (R) 67, Charlie Hardy (D) 27
AK-Gov (Hellenthal—R): Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 44, Bill Walker (I) 43
AK-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 42, Bill Walker (I) 39
AL-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Robert Bentley (R) 63, Parker Griffith (D) 25
AR-Gov (Marist): Asa Hutchinson (R) 47, Mike Ross (D) 44
AR-Gov (Opinion Research Associates—D): Mike Ross (D) 44, Asa Hutchinson (R) 42
AR-Gov (YouGov): Asa Hutchinson (R) 47, Mike Ross (D) 38
AZ-Gov (YouGov): Doug Ducey (R) 50, Fred DuVal (D) 40
CA-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Jerry Brown (D) 55, Neel Kashkari (R) 37
CO-Gov (Marist): Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 46, Bob Beauprez (R) 41
CO-Gov (YouGov): Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 48, Bob Beauprez (R) 44
CT-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Dan Malloy (D) 40, Tom Foley (R) 40, Joe Visconti (I) 3
FL-Gov (Gravis—R): Charlie Crist (D) 44, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 42
FL-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Rick Scott (R) 46, Charlie Crist (D) 45
GA-Gov (Atlanta Journal-Constitution): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 46, Jason Carter (D) 41, Andrew Hunt (L) 5
GA-Gov (CNN/ORC): Jason Carter (D) 48, Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 46, Andrew Hunt (L) 6
GA-Gov (Landmark Communications—R): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 48, Jason Carter (D) 45, Andrew Hunt (L) 5
GA-Gov (PPP—D): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 48, Jason Carter (D) 45, Andrew Hunt (L) 4
GA-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 47, Jason Carter (D) 43, Andrew Hunt (L) 2
HI-Gov (Merriman River Group): David Ige (D) 40, Duke Aiona (R) 34, Mufi Hannemann (I) 11
HI-Gov (Tarrance Group—R): David Ige (D) 39, Duke Aiona (R) 36, Mufi Hannemann (I) 12
HI-Gov (YouGov): David Ige (D) 54, Duke Aiona (R) 22, Mufi Hannemann (I) 5
IA-Gov (Marist): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 59, Jack Hatch (D) 36
IA-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 50, Jack Hatch (D) 37
ID-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Butch Otter (R) 53, A.J. Balukoff (D) 35
IL-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 45, Bruce Rauner (R) 41
KS-Gov (Gravis—R): Paul Davis (D) 49, Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 44
KS-Gov (Marist): Paul Davis (D) 45, Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 44
KS-Gov (Rasmussen): Paul Davis (D) 52, Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 45
KS-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 43, Paul Davis (D) 40
MA-Gov (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner—D): Martha Coakley (D) 45, Charlie Baker (R) 44
MA-Gov (SocialSphere/Boston Globe): Charlie Baker (R) 44, Martha Coakley (D) 35
MA-Gov (YouGov): Martha Coakley (D) 45, Charlie Baker (R) 41
MD-Gov (Gonzales Research—R): Anthony Brown (D) 46, Larry Hogan (R) 44
MD-Gov (YouGov): Anthony Brown (D) 51, Larry Hogan (R) 38
ME-Gov (Magellan—R): Gov. Paul LePage (R) 43, Michael Michaud (D) 43, Eliot Cutler (I) 13
ME-Gov (PPP—D): Gov. Paul LePage (R) 40, Michael Michaud (D) 40, Eliot Cutler (I) 17
ME-Gov (Univ. of New Hampshire): Gov. Paul LePage (R) 45, Michael Michaud (D) 35, Eliot Cutler (I) 16
ME-Gov (YouGov): Michael Michaud (D) 37, Paul LePage (R) 35, Eliot Cutler (I) 7
MI-Gov (Glengariff Group/Detroit News): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 45, Mark Schauer (D) 40
MI-Gov (Rasmussen): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 49, Mark Schauer (D) 46
MI-Gov (YouGov): Mark Schauer (D) 45, Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 44
MN-Gov (Mason Dixon): Gov. Mark Dayton (D) 45, Jeff Johnson (R) 38, Hannah Nicolett (I) 5
MN-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Mark Dayton (D) 50, Jeff Johnson (R) 41
NE-Gov (YouGov): Pete Ricketts (R) 55, Chuck Hassebrook (D) 35
NH-Gov (New England College): Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 47, Walt Havenstein (R) 47
NH-Gov (Univ of Mass-Lowell): Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 49, Walt Havenstein (R) 45
NH-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 47, Walt Havenstein (R) 38
NM-Gov (Albuquerque Journal): Gov. Susana Martinez (R) 53, Gary King (D) 38
NM-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Susana Martinez (R) 50, Gary King (D) 38
NV-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) 53, Robert Goodman (D) 28
NY-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) 56, Rob Astorino (R) 31
OH-Gov (YouGov): Gov. John Kasich (R) 54, Ed FitzGerald (D) 35
OK-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Mary Fallin (R) 56, Joe Dorman (D) 32
OR-Gov (YouGov): Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 48, Dennis Richardson (R) 42
PA-Gov (YouGov): Tom Wolf (D) 52, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 39
RI-Gov (YouGov): Gina Raimondo (D) 40, Allan Fung (R) 35
SC-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Nikki Haley (R) 50, Vincent Sheheen (D) 33
SD-Gov (Marist): Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) 67, Susan Wismer (D) 28
SD-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Dennis Daugaard (R) 54, Susan Wismer (D) 28
TN-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Bill Haslam (R) 58, Charlie Brown (D) 30
TX-Gov (YouGov): Greg Abbott (R) 57, Wendy Davis (D) 37
VT-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) 47, Scott Milne (R) 35
WI-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 46, Mary Burke (D) 45
WY-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Matt Mead (R) 58, Pete Gosar (D) 33
AK-AL (Hellenthal—R): Rep. Don Young (R) 52, Forrest Dunbar (D) 35
AZ-02 (PMI Inc/Red Racing Horses—R): Rep. Ron Barber (D) 48, Martha McSally (R) 46
CA-24 (Probolsky Research—R): Chris Mitchum (R) 42, Rep. Lois Capps (D) 41
HI-01 (Global Strategy Group—D): Mark Takai (D) 49, Charles Djou (R) 42
HI-01 (Ward Research): Charles Djou (R) 47, Mark Takai (D) 47
IA-01 (Loras College): Rod Blum (R) 44, Pat Murphy (D) 42
IA-02 (Loras College): Rep. David Loebsack (D) 51, Marianette Miller-Meeks (R) 38
IA-03 (Loras College): David Young (R) 46, Staci Appel (D) 44
IA-04 (Loras College): Rep. Steve King (R) 51, Jim Mowrer (D) 39
ME-01 (Univ. of New Hampshire): Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) 57, Issac Misiuk (R) 19, Richard Murphy (I) 10
ME-02 (Univ. of New Hampshire): Bruce Poliquin (R) 41, Emily Cain (D) 40, Blaine Richardson (I) 8
NH-01 (New England College): Frank Guinta (R) 49, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 43
NH-01 (Univ. of New Hampshire): Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 44, Frank Guinta (R) 40
NH-02 (New England College): Rep. Anne Kuster (D) 49, Marilinda Garcia (R) 42
NY-18 (Public Opinion Strategies—R): Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) 42, Nan Hayworth (R) 42
NY-21 (Siena): Elise Stefanik (R) 50, Aaron Woolf (D) 32, Matt Funiciello (G) 11
PA-03 (Mercyhurst College): Rep. Mike Kelly (R) 52, Dan LaVallee (D) 30
UT-01 (BYU/Utah Voter Poll): Rep. Rob Bishop (R) 49, Donna McAleer (D) 31
UT-02 (BYU/Utah Voter Poll): Rep. Chris Stewart (R) 43, Luz Robles (D) 37
UT-03 (BYU/Utah Voter Poll): Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R) 59, Brian Wonnacott (D) 25
UT-04 (BYU/Utah Voter Poll): Doug Owens (D) 46, Mia Love (R) 42
If you made it this far, I am vacillating between offering congratulations or ... condolences. The list, she gets a bit long this time of year.
But anyone looking for absolute clarity and coherence in the data is going to be wanting, it would seem.
One of the bits of disconnect in this huge mass of polling is owed, at least in part, to the disproportionate share of the data offered by the fourth wave of YouGov data. While YouGov's track record in 2012 was actually quite decent, there is one inherent characteristic of the YouGov panel-based online surveys that is of interest here. Simply put: in most cases, because the same respondents are polled and re-polled in YouGov's online panel, sample composition issues at the outset are tougher to resolve. In theory, as people opt-in and opt-out of the samples, these things might resolve themselves. But, by and large, you will notice that most races in the YouGov samples tend to be pretty consistent over time.
Consider the Senate numbers from YouGov, through the four "waves" of data since the Summer:
Democratic supporters may have been heartened, for example, by the numbers in Colorado (Udall +1) and New Hampshire (Shaheen +5). But one thing that becomes quickly apparent is that, since August, there have been only very modest shifts in virtually every race. But one look at the polling averages shows us that, the polling community, by and large, has seen considerable movement in those two races, as well as a number of others.
If you look at the gubernatorial races above, there are similar disconnects. Democrats would love it if Maryland's Anthony Brown is leading by double digits, as YouGov has consistently shown. But a cursory glance of the polling data in the race shows that only three polls since August have given Brown that outsized a lead—all three of them have been YouGov.
None of which is meant to insist that YouGov's data is off the fairway. Indeed, as I said at the outset, they had a solid run in 2012, and it is possible that their panel composition is what is on the fairway in these cases, and the bulk of the pollster community are the ones missing the mark.
But, if you are one of those people who looks at the "averages", the numbers over the weekend had to be, on balance, a bit concerning. As our own poll-based Election Outlook has long projected, prospects for a continued Democratic Senate majority continue to be somewhat bearish. As our own David Jarman noted Monday morning, looking at the various permutations shows a lot more paths for the Republicans to wriggle their way to a majority than there are paths for the Democrats to preserve their majority. As Jarman wrote:
At this stage of the game, you are seeing more and more open questioning of the polling from critics on the left. Republican mockery of Democratic "unskewing" aside, there is little question that pollsters are assuming an outsized enthusiasm gap.
Outside of one curious race (WI-Gov), virtually every poll that has offered data for both "registered voters" and "likely voters" has shown a gap, and often a substantial one, where the LV screen is favoring the GOP. That is nothing new, but the size of some of those gaps have been eye-popping. CNN's poll in Arkansas, back in September, where the gap was 11 points between the LV and RV screens, immediately comes to mind as an extreme example.
It is entirely possible that pollsters are underestimating Democratic performance. It has certainly happened before, particularly in some states (like Colorado) that are going to be on everyone's radar screen next week.
However, at some point, to prevent oneself from morphing into the Unskewed Guy, you have to acknowledge that if the polls, on balance, are correct, there are sources of concern. At this late stage of the game, the best thing nervous Democrats can do is redouble their efforts at trying to boost GOTV to ensure that those polls are, indeed, errant in their estimations of the probable electorate. There is at least some evidence that the media predictions of a moribund Democratic electorate are not universal (as Taniel has pointed out in his frequent updates on early voting). And it is helpful to remember that much of the polling has been based on that critical assumption.