Democrat Pat Hays (right)
Leading Off:
• AR-02: Arkansas has been a painful place for Democrats of late, but Team Blue got some genuinely good polling news out of the Razorback State on Monday from Talk Business and Hendrix College. In the open 2nd District, Democrat Pat Hays leads Republican French Hill 46-42, a reversal from July, when Hill held a narrow 44-43 edge. The numbers are also similar to a Hays internal from last month that hid him on top 44-41; Hill recently put out a press release claiming to have a 5-point lead in some invisible poll but provided no further details.
Hill, a wealthy banker, has suffered from some of the same image problems that have plagued other rich Republican vulture capitalists like Bruce Rauner, David Perdue, and Mitt Romney, and Democrats haven't hesitated to leverage his background in attack ads. Hays, by contrast, has run some great ads making the most of his personable, folks style. (The GOP playbook on Hays is utterly predictable: Obama Obama Obama.)
Both sides are spending heavily here, shelling out about $1 million apiece to date. This district is the bluest an Arkansas and like much of the state, it's ancestrally Democratic, so Democrats always believed they'd have a shot here. But given the party's woes at the top of the ticket and the president's deep unpopularity, it wouldn't have been surprising had the DCCC written the seat off. However, that's very much not the case, and Republicans are in serious danger of losing here, so Daily Kos Elections is changing our rating from Lean Republican to Tossup.
Early Voting: For weeks all eyes were on Iowa, but attention is finally shifting to other states where the early voting stakes are high. In-person early voting began last week in Georgia and continued over the weekend—the first time ever that Georgians were able to vote on a Sunday. In Colorado, which is implementing a new all-mail voting system, ballots finally went out and some have already started trickling back in. In Florida, we have reached the mark of 900,000 ballots cast, and the numbers should quickly increase as in-person voting is starting Monday. Below, Taniel takes a look at early voting trends.
• Colorado: Among the 2014 battlegrounds, the Centennial State is seeing the biggest change in voting: For the first time, every registered voter was sent a ballot by mail. This has raised many questions on how this will affect turnout and polling models, and whether polls—which already systematically underestimated the share of Democratic votes in the 2010 and 2012 cycles—will accurately screen for likely voters.
This will make Colorado's early voting statistics especially interesting to track. Will turnout prove superior to prior midterms? And could this alleviate the much-discussed turnout gap among Democratic-friendly groups?
Unfortunately we don't have much of an answer to these questions yet because Colorado counties only started releasing statistics on Friday, and some counties are still reporting very few ballots. Denver, for instance, is only reporting 149. This may reflect both a delay in when certain counties sent out ballots, and a delay in how rapidly they processed them. Registered Republicans have a 15-percentage points lead among ballots that have been returned so far, but this disparity between counties makes it much too early to draw any conclusions. We will know more in the days ahead.
• Florida: Nearly 900,000 Floridians had already cast their ballot by the time Rick Scott refused to come on stage because of Charlie Crist's fan. About 48 percent of them are registered Republicans, while 35 percent are registered Democrats.
This gap is nothing for Democrats to get alarmed by: The GOP has historically enjoyed a large advantage in mail voting. In 2010, it was 21 percentage points. Yet as I explained last Monday, these numbers are difficult to interpret for two reasons. First, Barack Obama's 2012 campaign made an effort to encourage Democrats to cast their ballot by mail rather than wait to vote in person. Second, a new state law requires that all voters who requested an absentee ballot in the previous election be automatically sent one again, which may or may not change voting behavior.
In-person early voting is starting on Monday in some counties; in others, it will only begin at the end of this week. It will be interesting to see how the partisan breakdown of in-person early voters compares to the 2010 cycle's, and whether the two changes I just mentioned made a difference in how registered Democrats prefer to vote.
• Georgia & North Carolina: For weeks all eyes were on Iowa, but attention is finally shifting to other states where the early voting stakes are high. In-person early voting began last week in Georgia and continued over the weekend—the first time ever that Georgians were able to vote on a Sunday. In Colorado, which is implementing a new all-mail voting system, ballots finally went out and some have already started trickling back in. In Florida, we have reached the mark of 900,000 ballots cast, and the numbers should quickly increase as in-person voting is starting Monday.
Let's start by taking a look at a potentially bright spot for Democrats, Georgia and North Carolina. These two Southern states are the only ones that release statistics about whether voters also cast a ballot in 2010, which can provide some rare hint as to whether these early voters represent a change in the electorate or just a shift in how voters prefer to vote.
In Georgia, 20 percent of early voters had not cast a ballot in 2010—and they're slightly less likely to be white than those who had. In North Carolina, an impressive 43 percent of absentee ballot requests have come from voters who didn't vote in 2010, and registered Republicans lead by just 4.6 percentage points among them compared to their much larger lead of 13 percentage points among repeat voters. These may be signs that an effective Democratic turnout operation is succeeding at turning out new voters.
North Carolina Democrats started unexpectedly strong in mail voting statistics last week, an anomaly given the GOP's traditional strength. For example, in 2010, Republicans cast 44 percent of mail ballots versus just 35 percent for Democrats. The numbers regressed toward the usual dynamic over the past week, with the GOP grabbing a 10-percent lead among absentee ballot requests.
But in-person early voting has not started yet—it will not until the last week before the election since state Republicans cut the early voting period—and when it does expect Democrats to close that gap.
Georgia is a perfect example of how the start of in-person voting transforms the early voting outlook: Nearly as many Georgians voted in the first day of in-person early voting alone—21,135 last Monday, October 13—than there are who have sent their ballots in by mail. As of Friday night, more than 90,000 Georgians had voted in-person, and as is usually the case, black voters are casting ballots at a greater share among in-person voters than among mail voters, so the latest numbers are more in-line with what Democrats want to see than they were a week ago, before in-person voting started.
• Iowa: Ever since Iowa voters started requesting and returning ballots in mid-September, it looked like we were in for an exact repeat of past cycles: a daunting Democratic advantage early, followed by a gradual tightening as Republicans pick-up their effort. But the GOP has been substantially outpacing expectations.
As of Monday morning, 199,703 ballots had been returned, and registered Democrats outpace registered Republicans by just 1.9-percentage points. Among the 364,828 voters who have requested a ballot, the Democratic edge is a slightly wider 3-percentage points. These are steep drops from just a week ago, when the Democrats' advantage in these two categories was respectively 8 and 6-percentage points.
More importantly, this marks a big gain for the GOP over past cycles. At the equivalent point of the 2010 cycle registered Democrats held a 8-percentage points lead among returned ballots and the balance mostly stabilized thereafter. Another way of capturing this: Democrats have cast 19 percent more votes than the equivalent point of the 2010 cycle, while Republicans have cast 52 percent more. Far more Republicans cast voted on Election Day than Democrats in both 2010 and 2012, and the reserve of early votes is what helped deliver the state to Barack Obama.
Who are these Republican early voters, and do they herald good news for Joni Ernst? This is where early voting statistics become hard to interpret. They don't tell us whether these numbers represent an influx of new Republican voters who may not have voted at all had they not voted early, or whether reliable Republican voters are just voting earlier than usual. (The same question exists about Democratic early voters in Omaha.) After all, as the universe of early voters expands—and it has dramatically in Iowa—it makes sense for its demographics to converge with those of the overall electorate.
• Nebraska: Democrats can look toward Omaha—the site of a hotly disputed House race—for good early voting news. As of Thursday, 22,000 voters had requested a ballot in Douglas County and a staggering 65 percent of those have come from Democrats, compared to just 21 percent for Republicans. Registered Republicans actually cast more early votes during the last midterm, so this is a big turnaround. This chart tells a very impressive tale of just how atypical it is for Democrats to bank this many early votes in Nebraska's 2nd District. It remains to be seen whether Democrats are getting new voters to the polls, or whether they have just convinced usual voters to cast their ballots earlier.
• Nevada: In sharp contrast to 2010 and 2012, Nevada is not one of this cycle's high-profile battlegrounds. But Republicans are hoping to pick-up the state Senate, and fierce statewide battles are being waged for lieutenant governor and secretary of state. The first day of early voting statistics suggests that, now that Harry Reid and Barack Obama's names won't be on the ballot, Democrats may struggle to reproduce the strong turnout operation that carried them to victories in the past two cycles.
In Clark County, where almost three-quarters of Nevadans live, the first day of early voting saw just 10,000 voters; there were 17,000 in 2010. That drop seems to mostly affect Democrats. Registered Democrats have an edge of 150 voters for now, whereas they enjoyed a lead of 2,000 voters after the first day of early voting in 2010. As Jon Ralston points out, this turnout disparity could affect several competitive legislative races.
• South Dakota: Last Monday, I asked whether Democratic hopes of defeating Mike Rounds may be hampered by the possibility that thousands of voters lock in their ballots before seeing the DSCC's new advertising campaign and before the competition between Rick Weiland and Larry Pressler potentially sorts itself out. But it's been striking to see that South Dakotans have been returning their ballots rather slowly: 12,126 had voted as of the state's last update, a number that corresponds to about 4 percent of the total number of voters in 2010—and an increase of just 4,000 voters over the past week.
• Other: No state has voted as much as much as Montana for now: Nearly 78,000 have already cast their ballot, which represents 21.2 percent of the total 2010 electorate. Hundreds of thousands of votes have been cast in California, Michigan, Tennessee, Minnesota and Maine. But these states tend to not release comprehensive early voting statistics, making it difficult to say much else.
Senate:
• HI-Sen: Brian Schatz deserves some huge props for this. Even though the freshman Democrat just narrowly won a hotly contested primary; even though he's on the ballot this fall; and even though he'll have to face re-election just two years from now, Schatz just sent $200,000 to the DSCC to help them in other, more difficult races this year. Yes, Schatz will crush his Republican opponent in a walk next month, but he'd be forgiven for wanting to build up a war chest to dissuade any potential primary challengers next cycle.
Instead, he's acting like the ultimate team player and helping out his fellow Democrats even when no one would expect him to. That's a stark contrast to retiring Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, who is sitting on a $2.4 million campaign bank account but refuses to part with any of it.
• KS-Sen: Well, this is funny, at least.
• LA-Sen: The DSCC has started preparing for a December runoff in Louisiana, with a $2 million buy for post-Election Day ad time. The DSCC isn't the ones who are seeing a near-certain runoff; Republican groups like the NRSC, Freedom Partners, and the NRA, have already been buying post-Election Day ad time here too. And we've started accounting for the likelihood of a runoff in the Daily Kos Election Outlook; currently, we project a 95 percent chance of a runoff in Louisiana, with Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu winning outright in November in the remaining permutations. (We also project a 60 percent likelihood of a runoff in Georgia, so don't expect to come out of Election Day knowing who controls the Senate.)
• Polling:
• CO-Sen: Benenson (D): Mark Udall (D-inc): 47, Cory Gardner (R): 44 (conducted for Project New America)
• CO-Sen: Gravis (R): Gardner: 48, Udall: 43 (Sept.: 46-39 Gardner)
• CO-Sen: Mellman (D): Udall: 44, Gardner: 41 (conducted for Senate Majority PAC)
• KS-Sen: Monmouth: Greg Orman (I): 46, Pat Roberts (R-inc): 46
• KY-Sen: W. Kentucky Univ.: Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 45, Alison Grimes (D): 42, David Paterson (Lib): 5
• NC-Sen: Gravis (R): Thom Tillis (R): 48, Kay Hagan (D-inc): 44 (Sept.: 45-41 Hagan)
• NC-Sen: PPP (D): Hagan: 46, Tillis: 43, Sean Haugh (Lib): 5 (Sept.: 44-40-5 Hagan)
• NH-Sen: Suffolk: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 49, Scott Brown (R): 46 (June: 49-39 Shaheen)
Over the weekend, Democrats released a pair of Colorado polls showing Udall up 3, in an attempt to push back against
a string of bad news that had made things look particularly treacherous. It remains to be seen if these internals are more accurate than the public polling, but it's worth noting that Republicans didn't respond with contradictory data of their own.
In Kansas, this is Monmouth's first-ever poll, and regrettably, they failed to include the Libertarian candidates in either marquee race. However, what's interesting here is that Monmouth has Democrat Paul Davis up 50-45 on Gov. Sam Brownback in the governor's race at the same time they have a tie on the Senate side. In the 15 public polls we have where both contests were tested, Orman has almost always out-performed Davis.
Recently, the gap has narrowed, but this is the first survey to find Davis doing more than 1 point better (comparing net margins) than Orman. It's plausible, though, given that Davis has been running since last year and has a real ground game, while Orman only came on late and has weathered a huge barrage of GOP attacks.
As for North Carolina, PPP finds the race as steady as ever—never mind Gravis and their silliness. Interestingly, Haugh is holding steady, but in a two-way matchup, Hagan still leads 47-44, showing that perhaps Haugh's role as a spoiler for Tillis is diminishing (though that may just be noise, given the narrow margins we're talking about here).
Gubernatorial:
• ME-Gov: Unsurprisingly, Maine Republicans have begun a campaign to boost independent Eliot Cutler, keenly aware that he's more apt to pull votes from Democrat Mike Michaud than GOP Gov. Paul LePage. So far, it's just some flyers, and there's no word on how much they're spending. Last cycle, they went so far as to buy some TV ads to try something similar in that year's Senate race (another three-way affair), but it didn't work. The one surprising thing is that Democrats so far have not tried to nuke Cutler, but perhaps this will motivate them.
• Polling:
• CT-Gov: Rasmussen: Tom Foley (R): 50, Dan Malloy (D-inc): 43 (Aug.: 45-38 Foley)
• CO-Gov: Gravis: Bob Beauprez (R): 48, John Hickenlooper (D-inc): 44 (Sept.: 48-43 Beauprez)
• FL-Gov: Øptimus (R): Rick Scott (R-inc): 41, Charlie Crist (D): 40, Adrian Wyllie (Lib): 12 (Oct. 12: 41-39-13 Crist)
• FL-Gov: Rasmussen: Crist: 47, Scott: 47 (Sept.: 42-40 Crist)
• FL-Gov: St. Pete Polls: Crist: 45, Scott: 44, Wyllie: 8 (Oct. 8: 45-44-8 Scott)
• KS-Gov: Monmouth: Paul Davis (D): 50, Sam Brownback (R-inc): 45
• MN-Gov: SurveyUSA: Mark Dayton (D-inc): 50, Jeff Johnson (R): 40 (Oct. 2: 51-39 Dayton)
• NH-Gov: Suffolk: Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 49, Walt Havenstein (R): 39 (June: 51-19 Hassan)
• TX-Gov: Univ. of Houston/Rice Univ.: Greg Abbott (R): 47, Wendy Davis (D): 32
Not too much to say about any of these—Kansas we discussed about in our Senate section. NB: That Texas poll had a very strange three-week field period. That's not good practice at any point during the cycle, but it's especially misguided late in the game, when most voters are tuning in for the first time and races can shift quickly.
House:
• FL-02: For a guy who has done such a bang-up job alienating women voters, maybe GOP Rep. Steve Southerland shouldn't be mouthing off like this:
"It's easy to score touchdowns when the defense isn't on the field — I would hope," Southerland said in an interview, leaning against his pickup truck here in this rural town of 6,100. "And daddy in tow," he added, a reference to Bob Graham's constant presence on the trail. [...]
"I'll let the people of this district make that determination," Southerland said in an interview. "I do not believe anyone, as a part of any qualification, should it ever be the family you are a part of. You have to stand on your own two feet. And I think the people of this district will have to determine, is she, as an individual, is she the person that they want to place their trust in to represent them in the United States House of Representatives. You know and I know that Washington, D.C., is full of headstrong people. And no one in Washington, D.C., cares about who your daddy is."
Gwen Graham is an adult woman. For Southerland to repeatedly berate her for hiding behind her "daddy"—former Sen. Bob Graham—is deeply offensive, gendered insult. But he excels
at that sort of thing.
• MA-06: Now here's a pretty remarkable story. Democrat Seth Moulton, an Iraq veteran who defeated Rep. John Tierney in the primary and now faces Republican Richard Tisei in a competitive general election, earned a Bronze Star for valor a decade ago—but never told anyone. The Boston Globe says they only learned of Moulton's award after reviewing his military records and reports that he "chose not to publicly disclose that he was twice decorated for heroism until pressed by the Globe."
In fact, Moulton claims the only person he'd told was his campaign manager (a fellow veteran), and his campaign says he didn't even inform his parents until last week. A cynic might say that this story sounds too good to be true, that Moulton was behind it all and waited until the most opportune moment to get the news out via some indirect means. But if you read the article, it really sounds legit for multiple reasons. For one, Moulton's primary victory was no sure thing, so holding this in reserve for November might have been futile. For another, if you're going to leak a story like this, you don't time it for Saturday's paper.
So in the end, it's possible that Moulton's heroism won't get a whole lot of play in the final two weeks of the campaign, especially since he's on the record saying he doesn't think it's appropriate to "brag" about his service. But to the extent voters learn of his commendations and his humility, respect for Moulton can only increase.
• ME-02: There's some good triage news on Monday concerning the open seat in Maine's 2nd district; the NRCC has cut its remaining reserved time here. They'd originally reserved $1.6 million in this cheap district; they've already spent $965,000, but pulled the plug on the rest of that. It's a little surprising, since two of the four public polls of this race actually showed Republican Bruce Poliquin in the lead over Democrat Emily Cain. But those polls had bizarrely small sample sizes, meaning it's likely the campaigns' internal polling is showing something different; moreover, the natural inclinations of the district, which at 53 percent Obama in 2012 is on the blue cusp of where the Republicans can compete, have always meant Poliquin had an uphill fight.
Unfortunately, the NRCC is spending that remaining money on other races, instead of converting it to silver dollars and dropping it on orphans from a blimp; the bulk ($500,000) of it is going to MN-07, where a recent internal poll gives them some hope of picking off longtime Dem Collin Peterson. They're also moving other amounts to IL-12, NY-01, and WV-03. (The NRCC's statement also seemed to strongly hint that Poliquin, who can self-fund, ought to break out his piggy bank to finish the job.)
• Polling:
• CA-17: SurveyUSA: Mike Honda (D-inc): 37, Ro Khanna (D): 35
• MA-06: Øptimus (R): Richard Tisei (R): 47, Seth Moulton (D): 45 (conducted for New Majority for Massachusetts)
• VA-10: Polling Company (R): Barbara Comstock (R): 51, John Foust (D): 35 (conducted for Citizens United)
Those SUSA numbers are definitely troubling for Honda, particularly given his own less-than-terrific internal he released last week putting him up a soft 42-27 in response to a Khanna poll that had the race tied at 38. The huge number of undecideds this close to Election Day is really worrisome for the incumbent, and the fact that Honda just went sharply negative on Khanna with a new TV ad (see our ad roundup below) is another concerning sign. It's not exactly clear why Honda's standing has slipped so much since June's primary, but evidently he believes that beating the stuffing out of Khanna is how he'll win re-election.
It's not exactly clear what the mystery client of Republican pollster Øptimus, which has mostly been focused on Florida, is up to. This "New Majority for Massachusetts" has funding roughly equivalent to their profile—which is to say, almost nothing.
Finally, something very weird happened with that VA-10 poll: It disappeared. Or rather, whoever published it Scribd subsequently locked it, making it unavailable for public consumption—but not before the incredibly speedy Steve Singiser jotted down all the relevant details in our irreplaceable polling database. The results aren't too different from a Comstock internal late last month that had her up 46-34, so that makes it even stranger that the poll disappeared, since you'd think Republicans would want to tout it.
Grab Bag:
• Baseball: While the World Series is always close to Election Day, the two events aren't usually seen as connected. However, in a new article, Jeff Singer explores how the Royals-Giants matchup can affect races in Kansas and California. There isn't any superstition at work here though. Instead, well-funded campaigns and their allies will be looking to advertise during the games, since fans tend to watch them live rather than record them and fast-forward though the commercials. In some races both sides may spend enough to cancel each other out. However, in the Kansas Senate race, there's a real danger that Republicans will severely outspent independent Greg Orman in front of a huge audience.
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: American Crossroads claims that Democratic Sen. Mark Begich broke his promises to be independent and to open up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The group just spent $502,000 here.
• AR-Sen: The DSCC goes after Republican Tom Cotton on Medicare and Social Security. Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor also continues to portray Cotton as a heartless ally of billionaires. On the other side, Crossroads GPS accuses Pryor of dragging his once-proud family name into the mud.
• CO-Sen: On the GOP side, the NRA ties Democratic Sen. Mark Udall to gun control groups. For Team Blue, NextGen Climate spends $338,000 (here and here) while Senate Majority PAC spends $212,000.
• GA-Sen: Democrat Michelle Nunn has two spots (here and here). The first features Nunn highlighting her ability to work for Republicans and Democrats, while the second features a teacher praising Nunn's work on education. On the GOP side, the NRA spends another $157,000.
• IA-Sen: For the GOP, Concerned Vets continues to accuse Democrat Bruce Braley of not taking care of veterans. For the Democrats, NextGen Climate spends $334,000 (here and here).
• KS-Sen: Outside groups have been investing heavily for Republican Sen. Pat Roberts, with GOP-friendly groups' spending dwarfing independent Greg Orman and his allies. Larry Lessig's Mayday PAC is hoping to make up the gap: They are spending $807,000 hitting Roberts as a crony for special interests. The Committee to Elect An Independent Senate also spends $484,000 for Orman. For Roberts, the National Association of Realtors spends $340,000.
• MI-Sen: Republican outside groups have largely given up on Terri Lynn Land, but Democrat Gary Peter's allies are evidently taking nothing to chance. NextGen Climate shells out another $288,000 (here and here), the League of Conservation Voters dumps another $321,000, and the National Association of Realtors spends $804,000.
• MN-Sen: Republican Mike McFadden's spot features his daughter.
• NC-Sen: Surprise, surprise: Crossroads GPS ties Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan to Obama.
• NH-Sen: Republican Scott Brown has a 15-second spot claiming Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen voted for an energy tax. Shaheen hits back, tying Brown to big oil and Wall Street.
• VA-Sen: Republican Ed Gillespie is ending most of his statewide ad campaign, and Democratic Sen. Mark Warner is taking this time to hit him when he can't respond. Warner's two spots (here and here) goes after Gillespie's lobbying career and accuses him of endangering Social Security.
• NRSC: GOP expenditures here and here.
• CO-Gov: Republican Bob Beauprez continues to paint Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper as a liar and as unable to keep people safe from criminals.
• CT-Gov: Republican Tom Foley argues he can fix the state's problems. Also for the GOP, Grow Connecticut has English and Spanish spots where it argues that Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy betrayed his pledge to not raise taxes.
• FL-Gov: The Republican Party of Florida has three spots (here, here, and here). The first is a pretty generic ad tying Democrat Charlie Crist to Obama, but the second ad is a lot more interesting. It features debate clips of Republican Gov. Rick Scott going after Crist. When the moderators ask Crist for a rebuttal, it shows the Democrat with a fan for a face... really. Clearly the GOP is trying to do some jujitsu over Scott's now legendary Fangate incident at Wednesday's debate, but this just feels weird rather than clever.
The party's third ad is in Spanish and features former Democratic Miami Mayor Maurice Ferré, who lost re-election back in 2001, and Puerto Rico's former Republican Gov. Luis Fortuño, who was tossed in 2012. The GOP is clearly hoping that Ferré can appeal to some Democratic voters but it doesn't look like he has much pull anymore: He was last seen running for U.S. Senate in 2010, where he won only 5 percent in the Democratic primary.
Also on the GOP side, the Florida Chamber of Commerce contrasts Scott with Democrat Crist on jobs, while throwing in some jabs at Crist's career as a lawyer.
For Team Blue, NextGen Climate goes after Scott for not believing in climate change.
• GA-Gov: Democrat Jason Carter features his wife Kate praising him as a father.
• IL-Gov: Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn accuses Republican Bruce Rauner of cutting the budgets of nursing homes he ran, leading to neglect and even deaths.
• KS-Gov: Kansas Values hits Republican Gov. Sam Brownback for ignoring problems in the state and only making them worse.
• MA-Gov: Democrat Martha Coakley calls for an economy "where everyone gets a fair shot."
• PA-Gov: Democrat Tom Wolf and Republican Gov. Tom Corbett.
• SC-Gov: Republican Gov. Nikki Haley (here, here, and here) and Democrat Vincent Sheheen.
• AR-02: American Crossroads ties Democrat Patrick Hays to Obamacare. Republican French Hill also portrays Hays as an Obama ally.
• AZ-01: Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick goes after Republican Andy Tobin for opposing a Medicaid expansion. The DCCC also spends $297,000.
• AZ-09: The National Association of Realtors spends $113,000 for the Democrats.
• CA-07: Democratic Rep. Ami Bera goes after Republican Doug Ose on birth control and abortion.
• CA-17: Rep. Mike Honda is out with his first negative spot against fellow Democrat and general election foe Ro Khanna. The ad accuses Khanna of being in the pocket of conservative billionaires who want to cut Social Security. It's a very hard-hitting commercial, and probably not the type Honda would run if he felt all was going smoothly. On Khanna's side, Californians for Innovation spends $222,000 (here, here, and here).
• CA-33: Few give Republican Elan Carr much of a chance against Democrat Ted Lieu in this very blue seat, but a group called Bold Agenda is still spending $256,000 on Carr's behalf.
• CA-36: Republicans have criticized Brian Nestande for running a weak campaign against Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz, but Nestande is hoping a trio of new ads (here, here, and here) can help him get back on track before it's too late. The ads themselves are... meh. Ruiz himself touts his work on a bill that would ban lawmakers from flying first class at taxpayer expense.
• CO-06: The NRCC portrays Democrat Andrew Romanoff as a tax-loving dishonest politician. Republican Rep. Mike Coffman does the same thing in his own spot. American Unity PAC goes positive, praising Coffman as an advocate for women.
• FL-02: Republican Rep. Steve Southerland features his family praising his record helping women.
• IL-10: Michael Bloomberg's Independence USA is spending a hefty $1,925,000 on Republican Bob Dold. Bob Dold!
• IL-13: Republican Rep. Rodney Davis has a very generic (though not bad) spot.
• MA-06: Democrat Seth Moulton argues that Republican Richard Tisei and his allies aren't looking out for veterans.
• ME-02: The NEA spends $336,000 for the Democrats.
• MN-07: Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson touts his bipartisanship and effectiveness.
• MN-08: The NRA accuses Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan of just being a poser when it comes to gun rights. Republican Stewart Mills also hits Nolan on taxes.
• NH-01: Republican Frank Guinta argues Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter is taking advantage of Congress' perks. On the other side, Mayday PAC also spends $100,000 for Shea-Porter.
• NH-02: Democratic Rep. Ann Kuster goes after Republican Marilinda Garcia for opposing the Violence Against Women Act.
• NY-04: Democrat Kathleen Rice.
• NY-18: Republican Nan Hayworth features a Democratic Dutchess County legislator praising her.
• NY-24: The NRCC continues to attack Democratic Rep. Dan Maffei for giving his staffers lavish bonuses. And of course, they also hit him on Obamacare. The creatively named New York 2014 also spends $247,000 for Team Red.
• WV-02: Freedom Partners spends $100,000 for the GOP.
• NRCC: GOP expenditures here and here.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Taniel, and Dreaminonempty.