Polling this week confirmed that David Perdue (R-GA) has seen his slight lead disappear.
Today, we turn the focus of the Polling Wrap to a simple guide to saving the sanity of our readers (no matter your political persuasion). We are now in the final weeks of the nearly interminable campaign cycle. For poll junkies, the next three weeks are the greatest thrills and most agonizing spills of the year. And that, my friends, is owed simply to one word: volume.
This week, we are seeing an average of about 20 polls a day (the total number of polls you will find beneath the fold, this time around, is 59 polls over the past three days, and that's without a big data dump via YouGov or some other source).
That number will only escalate as we get closer to November 4th.
Which means, just by virtue of that sheer tonnage of polling, there will be individual polls that will bring you great joy, and polls that will make you want to dive under the bed. So, today, consider this "close of the workweek" edition of the Wrap a friendly reminder from your intrepid little curator of the polls here at Daily Kos Elections: be smart enough to not exult or despair over every single poll.
What to do, instead? Glad you asked (even if you didn't). We'll refresh some rules of being a good poll consumer on the other side of the jump, after the customary listing of all of the polls that have dropped out of the sky since the last time we gathered on Tuesday.
AK-Sen (Rasmussen): Dan Sullivan (R) 48, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 45
AR-Sen (Rasmussen): Tom Cotton (R) 47, Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 44
CO-Sen (CNN/ORC): Cory Gardner (R) 50, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 46
CO-Sen (Denver Post/SurveyUSA): Cory Gardner (R) 45, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 43
CO-Sen (Quinnipiac): Cory Gardner (R) 47, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 41, Steve Shogan (I) 8
GA-Sen (GAPundit.com--R): Michelle Nunn (D) 46, David Perdue (R) 45, Amanda Swafford (L) 6
GA-Sen (SurveyUSA): Michelle Nunn (D) 48, David Perdue (R) 45, Amanda Swafford (L) 3
IA-Sen (Quinnipiac): Joni Ernst (R) 47, Bruce Braley (D) 45
IA-Sen (Suffolk/USA Today): Joni Ernst (R) 47, Bruce Braley (D) 43
ID-Sen (PPP--D): Sen. Jim Risch (R) 50, Nels Mitchell (D) 32
KS-Sen (Remington Research--R): Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 48, Greg Orman (I) 46
KY-Sen (Gravis--R): Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 50, Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 47
LA-Sen General (Rasmussen): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 41, Bill Cassidy (R) 38, Rob Maness (R) 14
LA-Sen General (Vox Populi--R): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 38, Bill Cassidy (R) 38, Rob Maness (R) 10
LA-Sen Runoff (Rasmussen): Bill Cassidy (R) 52, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 43
LA-Sen Runoff (Vox Populi--R): Bill Cassidy (R) 48, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 44
ME-Sen (Ipsos): Sen. Susan Collins (R) 56, Shenna Bellows (D) 31
NH-Sen (Kiley and Company--D): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 50, Scott Brown (R) 44
NH-Sen (New England College): Scott Brown (R) 48, Jeanne Shaheen (D) 47
OR-Sen (DHM Research): Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) 47, Monica Wehby (R) 26
AK-Gov (Rasmussen): Bill Walker (I) 50, Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 41
AZ-Gov (Adrian Gray Consulting): Doug Ducey (R) 43, Fred DuVal (D) 35
CO-Gov (CNN/ORC): Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 49, Bob Beauprez (R) 48
CO-Gov (Denver Post/SurveyUSA): Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 45, Bob Beauprez (R) 44
CO-Gov (Quinnipiac): Bob Beauprez (R) 46, Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 42
FL-Gov (CNN/ORC): Gov. Rick Scott (R) 44, Charlie Crist (D) 44, Adrian Wyllie (L) 9
FL-Gov (Øptimus--R): Charlie Crist (D) 41, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 39, Adrian Wyllie (L) 13
FL-Gov (SurveyUSA): Charlie Crist (D) 45, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 41, Adrian Wyllie (L) 7
FL-Gov (Univ. of Florida): Gov. Rick Scott (R) 40, Charlie Crist (D) 40, Adrian Wyllie (L) 6
GA-Gov (GAPundit.com--R): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 44, Jason Carter (D) 44, Andrew Hunt (L) 6
GA-Gov (SurveyUSA): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 46, Jason Carter (D) 46, Andrew Hunt (L) 4
IA-Gov (Des Moines Register): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 54, Jack Hatch (D) 39
IA-Gov (Quinnipiac): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 54, Jack Hatch (D) 39
IA-Gov (Suffolk/USA Today): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 54, Jack Hatch (D) 37
ID-Gov (PPP--D): Gov. Butch Otter (R) 39, A.J. Balukoff (D) 35, Others 12
KS-Gov (Remington Research--R): Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 48, Paul Davis (D) 45
MA-Gov (MassINC): Martha Coakley (D) 42, Charlie Baker (R) 39
MA-Gov (Rasmussen): Charlie Baker (R) 48, Martha Coakley (D) 46
MD-Gov (Gravis--R): Anthony Brown (D) 46, Larry Hogan (R) 43
ME-Gov (Ipsos): Mike Michaud (D) 42, Gov. Paul LePage (R) 36, Eliot Cutler (I) 16
ME-Gov (Normington Petts--D): Mike Michaud (D) 41, Gov. Paul LePage (R) 39, Eliot Cutler (I) 13
NH-Gov (New England College): Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 49, Walt Havenstein (R) 44
OR-Gov (DHM Research): Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 50, Dennis Richardson (R) 29
RI-Gov (Fleming and Associates): Gina Raimondo (D) 42, Allan Fung (R) 36, Robert Healey (Mod) 8
WI-Gov (Marquette Law School): Gov. Scott Walker (R) 47, Mary Burke (D) 47
WY-Gov (Mason Dixon): Gov. Matt Mead (R) 53, Pete Gosar (D) 28
CO-06 (Keating Research--D): Rep. Mike Coffman (R) 44, Andrew Romanoff (D) 43
FL-09 (Data Targeting--R): Rep. Alan Grayson (D) 40, Carol Platt (R) 35
IA-03 (Remington Research--R): David Young (R) 46, Staci Appel (D) 42, Edward Wright (L) 5
IA-04 (The Polling Company--R): Rep. Steve King (R) 51, Jim Mowrer (D) 38
MI-07 (Practical Political Consulting): Rep. Tim Walberg (R) 51, Pam Byrnes (D) 48
MN-07 (Tarrance Group--R): Torrey Westrom (R) 44, Rep. Collin Peterson (D) 43
NH-01 (New England College): Frank Guinta (R) 46, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 44
NH-02 (New England College): Rep. Anne Kuster (D) 46, Marilinda Garcia (R) 43
NJ-02 (Monmouth): Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) 56, Bill Hughes Jr. (D) 35
NJ-03 (Monmouth): Tom MacArthur (R) 51, Aimee Belgard (D) 41
NJ-05 (Monmouth): Rep. Scott Garrett (R) 48, Roy Cho (D) 43
NY-18 (Public Opinion Strategies--R): Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) 43, Nan Hayworth (R) 39
NY-19 (Public Opinion Strategies--R): Rep. Chris Gibson (R) 56, Sean Eldridge (D) 30
This week, on Twitter, no two polls were trafficked more than a pair of U.S. Senate polls. On Tuesday, damned near every Republican in America (or so it seemed) was tweeting out the New England College poll showing Republican Scott Brown ahead of incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen by a single point. But, the very next day, Democrats got their Twitter revenge by tweeting
en masse the news that SurveyUSA had Democrat Michelle Nunn moving into a narrow advantage (48-45) over Republican David Perdue, who had led in the open seat battle to replace fellow GOPer Saxby Chambliss in most of the polling over the last couple of months.
The breathless tweets underscored one of the most dangerous tendencies of the electoral junkie: the temptation to go all-in emotionally based on the result of a single poll. And this time of year, when you'll start to see 20-30 polls per day from now until the "only poll that counts," there will be a poll a day that will leave you overjoyed or despondent.
It is unbelievably easy to do. And almost certainly the wrong thing to do.
Singular polls can often be on an island. Illinois Republicans cackled with glee when they had back-to-back polls on Labor Day weekend showing that even venerable Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin appeared in some degree of peril, with two leads (albeit in GOP-sponsored polls) in mid-single digits. And what happened? More data came in, and those polls were either outliers, or a bit of pollster wishful thinking. Durbin's average poll lead over Republican Jim Oberweis in the five polls conducted since have been a tight 14.8 points.
That said, one of the most overused words in armchair poll analysis is the word "outlier." Every poll that confounds your expectations of a race is not an "outlier". Whether you like them or you hate them, a poll that goes outside of what has become "expected" are sometimes far more than an errant offering from a pollster. They can occasionally be a bit of electoral foreshadowing.
Let's take the two polls alluded to above. Neither side can assume that this week's poll that confounded recent expectations is merely an "outlier" to be ignored or discounted. They could be a sign that a race has turned, and turned in a direction that is counter to what has been the status quo for the cycle thus far.
At the risk of sounding like a partisan, the SurveyUSA poll giving Nunn a narrow edge seems to have a better chance of being a real sign of an electoral shift than the NEC poll out of the Granite State. For one thing, the movement in Georgia could have a real genesis: David Perdue's now well-known shitting of the bed over the issue of outsourcing. There have been three polls that were in the field after that story broke: Nunn has led in two of them, and the third was tied. In the 10 polls in this race prior to the outsourcing story, Nunn only led in one of them, and Perdue's average lead was nearly four points.
Also, as we learned on Thursday, the NRSC has become quite twitchy about this race, with their Executive Director expressing skepticism that Nunn could win without a runoff, a circumstance that virtually no one was even considering. So, clearly, they're moving some goalposts in Republican-land over this race. It was just a month ago, when Perdue was +10 in an InsiderAdvantage poll, that it was the GOP that was openly speculating about clearing that race without a runoff.
Meanwhile, the New Hampshire result has a more pronounced feel of being alone in the wilderness. If you look at the five most recent polls in that race, discounting the NEC poll, the median lead for Shaheen was 6 points. If Nunn has led in three of the last dozen polls in Georgia, Scott Brown has only led in three of the last 34 polls in New Hampshire.
Look: there is no question that Shaheen is considerably less comfortable in her race than she was over the summer. Of the seven polls released in October, Shaheen's average lead is just 3.3 percent. In the fourteen polls released in September, Shaheen's average lead was 5.1 percent. July and August? 7.2 percent. But there is still enough of a gap between the rest of the polling in the state, and this one particular data point, to make it hard to conclude that Brown has bridged that gap in the final stretch.
Now, if there are three more polls showing Brown in the lead, or tied, in the next week or so? That will be an excellent time to panic.
Really, one of the more reliable ways to know the state of a race is to simply look at recent polling in key races and look at who is leading more of the polls. Even in close races, it is fairly unusual to see someone who has trailed in the vast majority of polls in a given race wind up winning on Election Night. Not discounting the late breakers (races that were clearly favoring one candidate until the final few weeks of the campaign), of course, but even in those races, the "upset" winner shows at least some signs of moving to the front of the pack in those final weeks. Pure shockers, where someone trails habitually by 3+ points throughout and somehow wins, are pretty rare.
(For fun, if you can think of one, toss it in the comments! The only one that came to mind for me was this guy back in 1998, when he came from way behind (check out this final week polling memo) to become the Governor of Iowa. Fun fact: the guy he replaced? Current Gov. Terry Branstad!)
Another bit of advice: don't immediately discount the candidate or client-sponsored poll that shows a surprising result. With the relative dearth of polling, that might be the only sign of a campaign where things are going south in the hurry. This is especially true when a campaign poll goes unanswered by the rival team (see Tuesday's wrap for a deeper dive into the subject).
The ultimate lesson here: though we are getting into the final miles, it is still a marathon, not a sprint. Take the long view of polling, and look at take the time to wait for confirmation of that single poll that lifts your spirits or puts you on tilt. You'll save yourself countless heart palpitations. What's more: you'll probably have a better picture of the state of play as we approach Election Day.