ISIS flag being paraded... In Libya. Aint bombing wonderful?
Consensus is pretty complete that air strikes against ISIS are of "limited effectiveness" against ISIS and its assult on the Syrian town of Kobani. So complete the Pentagon
says so:
Warplanes belonging to the U.S. and United Arab Emirates carried out six strikes Tuesday and Wednesday near the besieged town. The attacks were in addition to five strikes the day before.
But U.S. officials cautioned that airstrikes were of limited effectiveness in defending the town.
"Airstrikes alone are not ... going to save the town of Kobani," Pentagon spokesman Rear Adm. John Kirby told a news conference Wednesday. "We know that."
...
The area has been one of the most active fronts in Syria in recent days. The secular Kurdish militia, known as the Popular Protection Units, are defending the town against militants of the Islamic State, a radical Sunni militia.
Kirby said that although the U.S. military carried out 11 airstrikes in the region over the last two days, it is not in communication with the Kurdish militia in Kobani.
“We don’t have a willing, capable, effective partner on the ground inside Syria,” he said. “It’s just a fact. I can’t change that.”
US forces, again, not in coordination with Kurdish ground forces according to the Pentagon, are effectively destroying things they can see from the sky. What they can't see are jihadi infantry movements at night, which is exactly what ISIS is doing:
According to the Kobani Local Council, ISIS goes into hiding in anticipation of the attacks and transports its weapons to different locations at night, so when the strikes hit there is no damage [to ISIS]. In response Kurds on the ground have demanded that the strikes take place in the daytime.
Of course, the Pentagon could be lying in order to fool ISIS (heh). But I see no reason why they would not provide a frank assessment.
The New York Times reports some 12,000 Kurds are left in Kobani, the vast majority of its population of 400,000 having fled to Turkey. The United States has called on Turkey to intervene by sending ground forces into Syria, but Turkey wants the United States to bomb Syrian dictator Assad, who has welcomed US airstrikes on his archenemies ISIS and other Sunni militants. Turkey also wants the Kurds to fight Assad, laughably. There's another problem though: the Kurds in Kobani don't want Turkey to intervene:
As an indication of the complex political currents, however, she made it clear the Kurds would not welcome military assistance from Turkey, asking instead for free passage of Kurdish fighters from Turkey to reinforce those in Kobani.
“We would view Turkey sending its troops without an international decision as an occupation," she said. "Turkey can help in a different way by allowing support to come through its territory. All the talk by Turkey about helping us is still words and not actions.”
Anwar Muslim, a lawyer and the head of the Kobani district, echoed those sentiments, saying it was illogical to ask the Kurds to denounce Mr. Assad and join Syrian insurgent groups fighting against him.
In Turkey, Kurds are protesting their governments refusal to intervene, and for that they are being killed. A dozen were killed yesterday.
So, to summarize: ISIS is successfully withstanding American bombing because the United States is not coordinating with the Kurds. The United States wants Turkey to send in ground forces but they dont want to and the Kurds dont want it either. The Kurds want Turkey to allow Kurdish fighters, but Turkey wanta the Kurds and United States to attack Assad. Assad is content with the US bombing his enemies in the form of ISIS whom Turkey wants the Kurds fight alongside against Assad.
What is the solution to this clusterfuckery? The most unpredictable one is perusading the Turks to ignore the Kurds and send in their forces. I suspect ISIS doesn't want that and will quickly pull back in order to fight another day, as they appear to be good tacticians and ably led. But, the consequences of such a decision is difficult to predict. ISIS may pull back just enough to convince Turkey to stick around in Syria, causing friction with Kurds.
Eventually the Washington Establishment is going to have to fish or cut bait. Fish means US ground troops in the middle of a Rubik's Cube of an internal secterian civil war in the Middle East. Cutting bait means admitting the billions we are spending on a futile effort to quell a Sunni Shia war was a dumb idea to begin with.
Aint intervention grand?