There is only one week left before the New Hampshire US Senate primary and for the Republicans, Scott Brown is still the likeliest candidate to win the nomination. That doesn’t mean that his opponents are going out without a fight though and with outside money coming in, it’s possible that Brown could still lose. With none of the candidates having much of a base and being out of New Hampshire politics for years, there’s a wilder race beneath the surface of the calm polling.
The candidates.
Brown, Scott.
The former Senator from Massachusetts has been running strong in the Republican primary, but not without stumbling. His difficulties range from embarrassing, but harmless acts of forgetting what state he’s running in, on many separate occasions, to fundamental differences with voters over guns, abortion and global warming. Most atrocious for Republican primary voters is his support for a federal assault weapons ban in 2012. This has roused the consternation of a lot of Republican primary voters who consider it big government gun grabbing. However, because gun groups haven’t put their support behind a single candidate, nor have they really made their voices known this cycle, Brown may avoid their wrath.
Helping avoid this wrath is how Brown has flip-flopped on pretty much every position he had while in the Senate. His central issue has been Obamacare, which is bad, m’kay? Even Obamacare isn’t an idiot-proof (Brown-proof?) issue as New Hampshire residents don’t hate Obamacare as much as he thinks.
During a discussion with a Republican State House Representative, he called Obamacare a monstrosity, while the representative and his wife called it a lifesaver. It led to some awkward news articles to say the least. Yet despite all this, Brown is still seen as the most moderate and capable candidate in the primary.
Rubens, Jim.
Rubens is a former state senator from 1995-1999 who ran in the Republican primary for governor in 1998, but failed to win the nomination. He was also the person of the year for the state’s largest newspaper, the Union Leader in 2013. Before being elected to the state senate, he started his own conservative party called “The New Majority” focusing on fiscal issues. Rubens has advocated for a removal of Superpac money and instituting campaign finance reform which has earned him the support of the Mayday Superpac, whose only issue is ending Superpacs. For issues, he’s taken a populist approach to the election, hitting Brown on cronyism, opportunism and working with “Washington Lobbyists” to “determine winners and losers in the marketplace.” These are many of the same themes as Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen’s campaign, so the overlap may help him and/or Shaheen. Finally he supports the idea of man-made global warming, but may have found the Republican’s way forward on the issue by blaming the whole thing on big government liberals.
Smith, Brown.
If Brown is the Ego, moderating the desires of the electorate and Rubens is the Superego, reflecting the ideals of removing dirty money and cronyism from politics, Smith is the Id, embracing every bad instinct the Republican electorate can have. First elected to the US House in New Hampshire’s first district in 1984, he was elected to the senate in Senate in 1990. Smith ran for President in 2000 as a Republican, lost to some guy named George and then left the party to run for president on the “Taxpayers Party” line now known as the Constitution Party. After losing the presidency, he returned to the Republicans, but his dalliances turned the party establishment against him, costing him the Senate nomination in 2002. Following this defeat Smith moved to Florida and endorsed Kerry over Bush in 2004. After that tiff with the party, he ran for Senate in Florida in 2004 and 2010. He also endorsed Duncan Hunter (R-Who Cares) for the 2008 Republican nomination.
One of Smith’s biggest faults is his tendency to say and do idiotic things. On the floor of the Senate he cut the head off a baby doll to protest abortion, claimed Elian Gonzales was being “re-educated” by the American government and tried to personally deliver Gonzalez an Easter basket, to name a few examples. Smith embraced the worst aspects of the Tea Party more than a decade before there was a Tea Party.
Money.
Brown.
As of August 20th Brown has raised $3.68 million and spent $2.493 million, not counting SuperPac dollars. The latest numbers on Superpac money shows that $70,000 has been spent in favor of Brown and $2.5 million against, but most of that is geared towards the general election, not the primary. Still, unless those ads attacked him for being too conservative they probably didn’t help.
Rubens.
Rubens raised $588,000 since June 30th, spent $174,000 and still has $414,000, but much of that is from a $500,000 loan the candidate made to his campaign. It appears that he’s planning for an end of campaign spending assault to rise in the polls when people are paying attention. Most of his support has come in the form of Superpac dollars with $1.23 Million spent towards Rubens campaign from the Mayday Superpac. Rubens is in spending contention with several TV and radio ads airing and it’s possible that he raised a lot from July 1st-Auguat 20th but either way, he’s far behind Brown. Finally, the lack of small donors, only $11,237 worth, should be a concern. In fact, only 5% of his funds came from a source other than himself or the Mayday Superpac.
Smith.
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He’s raised $463,000, spent $413,000 and only has $50,000 left. One Superpac has come to his aid for the kingly sum of $6,000 and the only ads he seems to have are errant signs attached to signs people actually paid for. The one thing he has going for him is that almost half of his funds came from small donations, suggesting there’s still some strength to his name and network. His main strategy seems to be attending events and hoping a lot of old people remember him.
Political bases.
The interesting thing about this election is that none of the candidates have a very
strong electoral base.
Brown.
As a state and US Senator from Massachusetts, Brown has never been on a New Hampshire ballot. That being said, his strongest base will likely come from places closest to Boston and its media market. According to the Dailykos Media Market spreadsheet 92% of the first district (the right half of the state) is in the Boston media market as is 75% of the second district (left half of the state). This means by district, Brown’s best support will come from the first district, which includes Nashua, Manchester, Portsmouth, Dover and Durham, some of the state’s biggest cities.
More specifically he’s likely to do best in the Rockingham and Strafford County area, also known as the Seacoast region. This area has the highest percentage of Massachusetts born residents of the state. Only 10% of the County’s residents are lifelong New Hampshire residents, a full 56% moved there from Massachusetts and 32% are from another state entirely. This is much higher than the statewide percentages of 21% lifelong New Hampshire residents, 38% residents who moved there from Massachusetts and 41% from another state.
Given how Brown’s political career has involved running strongly (for a Republican) in large cities, he will likely do well in some of the larger cities, such as Manchester and Nashua.
Rubens, Jim.
Rubens was elected to the state senate in the northwestern section of the state, but hasn’t been elected to office since 1996 nor has he been on the ballot since 2000. However, since he continued to live in the area he represented, it’s possible that his base will remain intact. In 1998 when he ran for governor he won 31% of the vote, narrowly losing to Jay Lucas who won with 34%. Of New Hampshire’s ten counties, Rubens did best in the rural counties of Grafton, Sullivan, Coos and Carroll outperforming his statewide total by 12, 10, 9 and 8 points respectively. Each of these counties are on the western side of the state, except for Carroll which is middle-east of the state. Rubens worst counties were in Strafford, Merrimack and Hillsboro where he did -8, -5 and -4 points worse than his statewide percentage respectively. The differences between his base and weaknesses are the geography of the state and Urban-Rural split, with him doing better in counties with fewer people per square mile (PSM).
Smith, Bob.
With Smith it’s a bit harder to determine his base. He represented the 2nd district for 3 terms before being promoted to the senate so that seems the most likely place. However he hasn’t been involved in New Hampshire politics for over a decade, so his goodwill, what was left, may have evaporated. Further, during his last election he did equally poorly in all 10 counties. He only earned 45% of the vote statewide and his best county was Coos where he did 8 points better than his statewide totals and his worst was Rockingham where he did 4 points worse than his statewide percentage. This may be due to the fact that John E. Sununu, his opponent, also represented the 2nd district; meaning neither had a geographic edge. Of course Smith was representing the entire state at the time, which speaks to an underlying weakness with his candidacy. His current residence is in Tuftonboro, a part of Carroll County, so he may have some support there, but he did worse in Carroll than he did statewide. That performance coupled with Ruben’s past strength in the county bodes poorly for
Smith.
Now that we understand the candidate’s strengths in a vacuum, how would they work in an actual campaign?
To begin the aggregate of polling (all three polls) has given Brown a hefty lead over his opponents.
However, these polls are over two months old, before Rubens spending began in earnest so it doesn’t provide an accurate picture of the race. Further, the Suffolk poll shows that 81% of the Republican electorate has made up their mind on Brown but he’s only polling at 40% of the vote. This offers the potential for a challenger to win or for a Brown landslide as voters flock to him at the last moment.
That being said, Brown has a few weaknesses.
To begin, while Southern New Hampshire falls under the Boston Media Market, Northern New Hampshire, comprising Coos, Grafton, Carroll and Sullivan, does not. This means that while the population centers may remember Scott Brown from such campaigns as 2010’s “This Little Truck of Mine” and 2012’s “Warren Against Elizabeth” Northern New Hampshire will not. Further, these counties comprise some of Rubens' best counties, providing him with a clear and solid base.
That weakness however is undermined by the fact that based on the 2010 GOP primary these counties only comprise 16% of the electorate. If Brown’s strength is the urban and seacoast counties of Hillsboro, Rockingham, Merrimack and Strafford then his base will comprise 73% of the electorate. Finally, there are the counties of Cheshire and Belknap where neither candidate has a solid advantage, but as both are rural counties, with fewer people per square mile than the state as a whole let’s assume this area will support Rubens more than Brown. This doesn’t mean Rubens will win, just that he’ll do better statewide in those counties than Brown.
All Brown needs to win is rack up 69% of the vote in his base counties for a majority of the vote, even if he didn't get a single vote from the other counties. While such a blowout is unlikely, it signifies how easy he has it in this election. Even if he only won 40% of the vote in his base, the same as polls show him getting statewide he’d already have 30% of the vote. If he won just 30% of the rest of the state he’d be at 38%, which is likely enough for him to win in a three way election. For Rubens or Smith to even have a chance, they need to expand their support into Brown’s base.
Rubens tends to derive his base from counties that have fewer people per square mile than the statewide average of 147. His best county, Grafton, only has 52 people per square mile, while his worst county, Strafford, has 333 people per square mile. However, there isn’t a complete correlation. Rubens did well in Rockingham which has over 400 people per square mile, while the least populous County, Coos only gave him his second best result. If we assume that he does better in the less populous counties, are there any in Brown’s base where he could win?
Only one: Merrimack County. Every other county has far more people PSM than the state’s average, with Hillsborough’s 457 as the highest. Merrimack has slightly more than the state’s average at 151 PSM, but it’s close enough that Rubens might have a chance. He would need to win the small towns in the County and do decently in Concord, the County’s largest city. With his recent endorsement from the Concord Monitor, that might be possible, but even if he won Merrimack county, it wouldn’t help too much as that county’s only 12% of the electorate.
For Rubens to win, there’s only one path and it’s not easy and is unlikely to happen. Rubens needs to dominate in the West and Northern part of the state, winning outright majorities in the rural counties of Coos, Grafton, Carroll, Cheshire, Belknap and Sullivan, while Smith and Brown fight for a distant second. Next Rubens would need to win Merrimack County and then stay in contention in the rest of the state.
However, there’s the wildcard of Smith. As discussed earlier, he doesn’t have much of a regional base, but that could have due to the regional similarities of Smith and Sununu. If Smith has any electoral strength left in him, he’ll likely do best amongst the oldest voters in NH-01. If Smith eats into Brown’s base, it could provide a window for Rubens, especially if Smith drinks Brown’s milkshake throughout the state. However, Smith’s mediocre fundraising, dismal cash on hand and lack of any advertising suggests his impact will be minimal outside of voters who remember him from his House and Senate days which began 3 decades ago.
All of this points to a relatively easy win for Brown. All he needs to do is rack up some high or even mediocre margins in the southern part of the state and not get completely blown out of the water in the north. Considering how much money he’s spent and the support he has from the establishment, this isn’t a Herculean task.
For a prediction, Brown should get 40-60% while the other two share the remainder, with Rubens likely doing better than Smith.
Brown:55
Rubens30
Smith:15
Works Cited.
The Simpsons is owned by 20th Century Fox and was merely included as a bit of levity.
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