Here are some things I keep on my mind as we appear to be already gearing up for a presidential campaign war:
1. Its the end of an 8 year Democratic White House.
The cyclical nature of modern politics, with swings back and forth between the parties, I take that as a given feature of American politics. Neither party, by my view, is dominant enough to have a 'Party System' sort of advantage over the the other for the moment. So, given that, the Republican Party is due for a win.
2. George W. Bush got elected.
Coming at the end of a popular Democratic presidency with a booming economy and a nation at peace, it seemed like it would be extraordinary thing to hand things back to Republicans, and another Bush for that matter. Shouldn't have been close, but it was. Close enough for a conservative Supreme Court to intervene. I keep this in mind.
3. The Republican nominee will not be a crazy person.
As much as we might like to imagine a Rand Paul or Ted Cruz nomination, its not going to happen. The GOP nominee will be someone of the Establishment, a Jeb Bush or even Mitt Romney again. In other words, someone just capable enough of riding the cyclical wave into office without being a nut.
4. President Obama's influence will fade.
Except of course if Joe Biden runs and wins the nomination, a not very likely scenario, President Obama's political influence will be of limited value. This is only natural and perfectly okay. Even Eisenhower at the zenith of his popularity, peace and prosperity everywhere, and standing as the unquestioned leader of the world couldnt keep the GOP in power when he left. President Obama has done a fine job in tough times and I'm sure will make us all proud in retirement.
So given these factors, I have to think to myself 'is it possible to buck the tide?' Given the circumstances, I would say no. Fact is we are more likely to lose the 2016 election than win it. But if we have a chance at all, I say go for it. Obviously we must nominate someone, so who should that someone be?
For me, the key question is this: Who can carefully separate themselves from Obama without incurring the wrath of Black voter discontent, and still go on to win the nomination and plausibly win the general election? Plenty of folks might not like to hear this, but President Obama (and his wife, which is important) is still at 95% to 98% approval among black voters, the most reliable large vote group Democrats have. So, who can sew up that vote, fundamental in the primary, crucial in the general election, and still offer a different course from President Obama without tearing the Party apart?
My progressive friends, of course would say Elizabeth Warren. Someone like that who they feel would govern better. A fresh face. May as well shoot for the top if were likely to lose anyway. I'd say that is an absolutely guaranteed path for a defeat, even a resounding one. Fact is, there simply aren't enough liberals in the country, spread through enough of the key electoral states, to win a national election. That is changing, but for the moment it is not going to happen. Especially not coming at the end of Obama's sit. You cant govern if you dont win.
More practical minds say Hillary Clinton. Someone who is a known commodity and big enough name to win the election. I'd say that's a wiser, more conservative course of action, but no guarantee of victory. Yes, Im sure she will not be popular in some precincts in California and New York, but I'm not worried about losing there. But nominating old news is fraught with its own perils. Nothing says old like old and Hillary Clinton isnt going to be the fresh new direction candidate.
So, this leads me to my final question, having considered everything presented here: Who else have we got?
No matter what you think about the direction of the Democratic Party or the country, the fact is we have to have a candidate. The only question is who? Who, given the circumstances, can win a national election in 2016? Its difficult to conclude this early, but the time for choosing is close at hand.
I don't see anyone out there with real possibilty except Hillary Clinton.