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Eddie Money feat. Ronnie Spector -- "Take Me Home Tonight"

5:24 PM PT (David Jarman): VA-10: The Republican "firehouse primary" in Virginia's 10th district (sort of a compromise between a real primary and a convention, held on a Saturday and in only 10 locations around the district) didn't offer any real surprises. State Del. Barbara Comstock, given her financial advantages, had been expected to win the nomination easily, and that's just what she did, taking 54 percent of the paltry 13,609 votes cast. State Del. Bob Marshall, who would have been Democrats' preferred opponent given his propensity for foot-in-mouth moments, took only 28 percent, with Howie Lind taking 8 percent and three other minor candidates taking the rest. Comstock will face Democratic Fairfax Co. Supervisor John Foust in this competitive open seat race to succeed the retiring Republican Rep. Frank Wolf.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    Editor, Daily Kos Elections

    by James L on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 08:49:13 AM PDT

  •  Finally! /nt (4+ / 0-)

    TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

    by Le Champignon on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 08:53:51 AM PDT

  •  If anyone in the NYC area heard a loud popping (19+ / 0-)

    noise last night, do not be alarmed. It was just the sound of champagne being popped at the Recchia campaign office. I'd say NY-11's tossup/tilt D at worse running against an indicted man. Also, @taniel had a perfect tweet for this:

    Gay suburbanite in NJ-11

    by interstate73 on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 08:55:33 AM PDT

    •  If he drops out will he still be on the ballot? (0+ / 0-)
      •  The SI GOP (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, ChadmanFL, wadingo

        Will probably replace him.  Rumor is, is that he is discussing a plea deal.

        Moderate Republican, PA-5

        by PSUCentrePA on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 09:25:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  hard to believe considering how long she's been (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          PSUCentrePA, jj32, MichaelNY

          out of office but Susan Molinari is still relatively young (55ish). Any possibility she runs for the seat?

          more anti-conservative than liberal

          by bonzo925 on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 09:47:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  The committee named on his petition will choose. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          If the commitee is made up of Molinari partisans.  Which mans you can scratch off the names Andrew Lanza and Jimmy Oddo (both of whom wouldn't be interested anyway) and of course Vito Fossella.  Dan Donovan wanted to go statewide.  So he might be possible.  But choosing him would be a declaration of war against the Conservative Party since former Borough President James Molinaro personally blamed Dan Donovan for his grandson going to prison.

          Susan Molinari has skeletons in her closet galore.  Not sure she'd be eager to get back into the vipers pit.  More money on the outside.

          Best bet would be Nicole Malliotakis, Diane Savino's BFF in the state assembly who has been getting a lot of positive press for... ummm.. I'm not really sure.  But she gets a lot of credit for issuing a lot of press releases.  On a higher stage she might be forced to be more open about her personal life.  Which could play both positively and negatively.

          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 10:58:55 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  But how do they get Grimm off the ballot? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            He has to move out of NY state, get appointed to a judgeship, or get convicted to get that to happen.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 09:36:25 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  I suspect he drops out (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PSUCentrePA, MichaelNY

      But really, this in New York, pretty much all of the politicians are criminals of one form or another. Only in New York (Or Chicago, or Louisiana)...

      I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

      by OGGoldy on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 09:30:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  even then (8+ / 0-)

        I think Recchia is well-positioned, having many months of campaigning and over a million bucks advantage over someone who gets in now. And I expect his fundraising will improve now too.

        The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

        by James Allen on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 09:33:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  That's a little unfair. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'd say more of them are loudmouths and camera hogs than criminals, although we have our fair share of them.

        But really, isn't the best way to do this as a percentage of overall politicians?

        "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

        by bjssp on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 10:33:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Percentage of overall politicians (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          PSUCentrePA, MichaelNY

          Wanna start with the New York Senate? :)

          I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

          by OGGoldy on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 10:37:45 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well, how small in scale do you want to go? (0+ / 0-)

            Are we adjusting for the type of states--those with big urban centers versus those that are largely rural, for instance? Are we taking out one position if it exists in one state but not in another?

            Or we are just adding up the total number of positions? That doesn't seem right.

            This seems like a good place to start, and it doesn't look like New York has so many more than other states, considering its size.

            "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

            by bjssp on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 10:43:48 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  In the current 2010-2019 bracket (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, jncca

              Per your own link, 10 politicians in new York have been convicted in the last 4 years. Other large states like California has substantially fewer. New York really does stand out like a wore thumb.

              I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

              by OGGoldy on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 04:03:05 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Hiram Monserrate never resigned.... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Skaje, jncca, kleinburger

        ...despite being caught on tape stabbing his girlfriend.  After this he was part of the gang of four who threatened to caucus with the Republicans unless gay marriage was taken off the agenda.  They were brought back into the fold in a deal State Senate Majority Leader Malcolm Smith and Deputy State Senate Majority leader Jeffrey Klein negotiated.  (They of course would have their own excursion into enabling Republicans in the IDC).

        Hiram Monserrate then again bolted to the Republicans with fellow gang of four'er and fellow arch-criminal Pedro Espada.  And again the Democrats begged the guy indicted (and caught with videotaped evidence) of stabbing his girlfriend to come back to the party.

        Even after he was found guilty OF STABBING HIS GIRLFRIEND there was a near civil war in the Democratic Party over expelling Hiram Monserrate.  This might give you some insight into why Diane Savino does not seem to be in any rush to rejoin the Democratic Caucus.

        ALBANY - Hotheaded state Sen. Kevin Parker erupted again.

        Parker "charged" toward a female colleague Tuesday night during heated, closed-door squabbling over whether to toss Hiram Monserrate from the chamber, Senate sources said.

        The Brooklyn Democrat took several steps toward Sen. Diane Savino (D-S.I.) as the two engaged in a profanity-laced argument during the contentious Democratic conference, the sources said.

        Parker dropped several "f-bombs" and called Savino "a b----" as she tried to explain why Monserrate could be immediately expelled with Republican votes, the sources said.

        An enraged Parker, who opposed Monserrate's ouster, "went a little ballistic, swearing and screaming that the Republicans have no right to dictate what goes on in our house," one senator said.

        Three Monserrate supporters - Sens. Eric Adams (D-Brooklyn), Ruben Diaz Sr. (D-Bronx) and Carl Kruger (D-Brooklyn) - started yelling and egging Parker on, several sources said.

        http://www.nydailynews.com/...

        Leaving with a shred of dignity?  That is not the way a lot of New York politicians roll.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 10:50:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Recchia would be vulnerable in 2016 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I'm not sure if he could hold the seat for long if he's running against someone like Nicole Malliotakis down the road.

      •  any seat we pick up aside from CA-31 would be (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, jncca

        vulnerable in 2016.

        The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

        by James Allen on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 09:07:47 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  We'll see where Nicole stands in 2016. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, James Allen

        She is in the Molinari/Grimm faction of the party.  And if Grimm goes down that weakens them immensely.  And if there is no Republican incumbent she may find other Republicans waiting in the wings to run.  Such as Vito Fossella who used to run the faction now in charge of the Island Republicans.

        As for Recchia being vulnerable.  You'll have better Democratic turnout in a presidential year.  Upon being elected I assume Recchia will change his registration to a Staten Island address.  And he already has a good working relationship with the Jewish Orthodox community he built as a City Councilman.  He will lose that vote badly this year.  But as an incumbent like McMahon he will be able to build support and at the very least be competitive and get some institutional support that tends to go to incumbents.

        I'd be worry worried about 2018 than 2016 if he someone gets elected.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 11:04:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Wish comments had an edit feature... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Possible Liberal

          I of course notice all my typos immediately after posting.  Let's pretend I wrote that last sentence...

          I'd be more worried about 2018 than 2016 if somehow he gets elected.

          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 11:07:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  That attitude of his won't fly in prison. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 09:33:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Catherine Begaye (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

    Can you show me some love?
    https://catherinebegaye.ngpvanhost.com/...

    The Republican incumbent is a 1st termer who only won by 79 votes, it's an absolutely winnable district and Pacheco has a terrible voting record - voting against raising the minimum wage above other votes.

    Grew up in southern VA. Have worked in 8 states across America. Managed races in VA and DC. Was Deputy Political Director at DGA for the 2012 cycle. Follow me @bharatkrishnan if you want to be my friend.

    by Bharat on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 09:57:11 AM PDT

  •  OH-Assembly/Senate (4+ / 0-)

    Some good news and some bad news to follow up on some diaries I wrote a little bit ago.

    The good news first: in District 5 the Republican candidate Craig Newbold decided not to run in a rematch against State Rep. Nick Barborak (D) after all and has been replaced on the ballot by a weaker candidate. This new candidate is a minister named Tim Ginter who was trounced in a run for State Senate in 2008. Although this development occurred before my last diary, somehow I missed this story. As a result, I am moving this race from Toss Up to Leans Democrat. As a result, 38 seats are now Lean Democrat or better, with the only Democratic-held seat remaining as a Toss Up being the Open Seat in the 28th District near Cincinnati.

    The bad news now: In the 3rd State Senate District (a 54.5% Obama seat!) held by Republican Kevin Bacon, Marco Miller -who appeared to be our stronger candidate- was disqualified from the ballot. According to the article from the Columbus Dispatch I link above, Miller said he could not afford to appeal this decision. I'm not sure why the State Democratic Party didn't get involved here, but with only a some dude(ette) candidate named Star Johnson left on the ballot, I am downgrading this race from Leans Republican to Likely Republican. What a fail for the state Democratic Party!

  •  MN Conventions (0+ / 0-)

    Quick bit of information on the current state of the MNGOP and the MNDFL endorsement process. This weekend and next weekend, essentially all congressional district level conventions will be wrapping up, which means that congressional candidates will be endorsed (or not), and also that most of the rural legislative endorsements will be handed out, with only a couple exceptions of legislative districts that cross congressional district lines. But more or less after the end of next weekend, we will know 95%+ of who will be on the ballot for legislative and congressional races in Minnesota. The state conventions aren't until the end of May, so the statewide races won't be endorsing until then.

    I am a Tom Rukavina Democrat

    by OGGoldy on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 10:06:59 AM PDT

  •  Matt Bevin- Getting Around (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

    No discussion of cockfighting yet. But I thought I would note he has now had events known to the public in 83 of 120 counties in Kentucky. Say what you want about him and his campaign, but he has gotten around. Next week will be a pretty dead week to get much across politically across much of the Bluegrass State with all the Derby stuff going on, but come a week from Monday, things will heat up. Bevin should start to have some new ads up. However, next weekend, I will be watching to see Alison Grimes' hat at the Derby. She goes every year, and hats are big there and at the Oaks the day before.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 10:07:22 AM PDT

    •  So that is all that they discussed on KY Tonight? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Just the cockfighting, "not my job to make jobs" line, and the Derby?

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 11:19:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Elected President of USC College Democrats (22+ / 0-)

    For the 2014-15 school year!

    I just wanted to announce it here!  As always, things I post on this site represent my views and not the club's.

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 home, College in CA-37, go Trojans!

    by Alibguy on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 10:16:57 AM PDT

    •  Tell that (15+ / 0-)

      to Barrow, McIntyre, Matheson, Peterson, McKaskill, Joe Donnelly and others))))

      •  Exactly (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        if we were to apply the logic that centrist = bad to its logical extreme we'd end up like Ted Cruz and end up with government shutdowns every year.

        The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

        by ehstronghold on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 10:46:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  it was also posted here (4+ / 0-)

      and I commented.
      I think he's stretching the analysis too far.

      The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

      by James Allen on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 10:27:52 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Definitely an inaccurate analysis in the link (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, Possible Liberal, KingTag, Taget

        Swing voters are, in fact, what swung 2010 wildly against us.  And the appearance was much worse than normal because the previous two federal elections were wave elections in our favor when swing voters swung wildly for us, not a neutral election where they were split.

        Our turnout was OK, there was some depression compared to normal but it wasn't outrageously bad.  For comparison, it wasn't as bad as VA-Gov 2009, when an amazingly bad Democratic nominee managed to drag down our turnout to massively low levels.

        Also, there is evidence that where our turnout dipped, it wasn't among liberals, it was among self-identifying moderates who by their nature are more apolitical, and harder to turn out anyway.  Those are the first people we lose, either to defection or disinterest, when we're in trouble.

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 06:48:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  We have a maj. in the Senate because of centrists (7+ / 0-)

      No way we would have 55 seats without those Red states Dems. Heidkamp, Manchin, Donnelly, Landrieu, Begich, Hagan etc. all ran as centrists and wouldn't have won if they didn't. A lot of people on here think there's some kind of hidden liberal majority out there in these red states just waiting to be tapped but there's not.

      •  By "a lot of people here", do you mean (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Le Champignon, Taget

        DK in general, or DKE specifically?  Many of the DKE regulars are pragmatic and recognize that, for example, a Bernie Sanders-type can't win in Utah. Granted, we have a few posters here in DKE that think otherwise, but most don't think that way.  

        The mission of Daily Kos is to promote more and better Democrats. I think that here on DKE, we put the most focus on the 'more' part, and not necessarily the 'better' part all the time.

        Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

        by WisJohn on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 09:16:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  There is room in between those two schools... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, Skaje, gabjoh

        ...where I fall in.  There is a difference between having a centrist position and a moderate position.  And the definitions I'm giving can be interchangeable.  I'm just choosing to disparage "centrist" and promote "moderate" arbitrarily.

        Being seen as a moderate is a good thing.  Particularly in a hostile state.  Having a few positions (say on gun rights) that goes against the party shows you are "independent" and are not beholden to the party bosses.  And helps build you credibility.

        That does not mean however that tepid and weak positions benefit you.  A Republican will get more support for a large tax cut than a small one that no one will notice.  Why?  Because the voter you are appealing to is more likely to realize a benefit.  By the same token a Democrat is more likely to benefit from pushing a good minimum wage increase that an insignificant one because the benefit you are offering will help real voters in real ways who may reward you.

        But more in general a populist posture can often times pay better dividends than an establishment posture.

        It perhaps is better seen putting it using the opposite party to take the emotion out of it.  Peter King in Long Island gets his moderate credentials by taking pro-union positions and strategically choosing issues to rattle his party on.  And then he goes populist (though perhaps more accurately put, demagogic.. though historically the two have often merged) on issues such as the "Ground Zero Mosque."  That probably has given him a better foothold in his district than being a bland right of center Republican such as say Spencer Abraham in Michigan.

        Or put another way in hostile territory being Dick Durbin can be just as deadly as being Bernie Sanders.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 11:24:41 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  you have to use a control variable (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Taget

      many of the blue dogs happen to be in conservative states and the fact they were centrist is why they stayed as long as they did. If you traded John Barrow for Mark Pocan, Pocan would never win the 12th. Likewise, John Barrow would probably have an easier time winning seats like WI 7 then a standard liberal dem would.

      more anti-conservative than liberal

      by bonzo925 on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 10:57:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  South Africa election (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Possible Liberal

    So South Africa goes to the polls on May 7th. Even though the ANC has a 100% chance of winning it'll be interesting to see how:

    1) Will the ANC's vote drop below 65% and whether it loses more votes to the DA or EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters).
    2) Can the Democratic Alliance (DA) maintain its hold on the Western Cape, cut into the ANC's hold in Gauteng and win 20+% of the vote.
    3) How well will the EFF perform in this election especially since they are trying to capitalize on anger over the economic stagnation outside of the cities.
    4) Who will the "Born Free" voters choose? Will they stick with the ANC like their parents or will they drift to other parties. (The Born Frees being the generation of South Africans who never had to live under apartheid.)

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 10:28:05 AM PDT

  •  Right On: Stone Cold Steve Austin on Gay Marriage (8+ / 0-)

    Here's a wonderfully profane response to anti-gay marriage people:

    I don't give a shit if two guys, two gals, guy-gal, whatever it is, I believe that any human being in America, or any human being in the goddamn world, that wants to be married, and if it's same-sex, more power to 'em. What also chaps my ass, some of these churches, have the high horse that they get on and say, 'We as a church do not believe in that.' Which one of these motherfuckers talked to God, and God said that same-sex marriage was a no-can-do? Okay, so two cats can't get married if they want to get married, but then a guy can go murder 14 people, molest five kids, then go to fucking prison, and accept God and He's going to let him into heaven? After the fact that he did all that shit? See that's all horseshit to me, that don't jive with me.
    Right on, brother.

    "[Buffett] would much rather be idolized by porn stars and college students and prisoners [trying to turn around their lives] than by a bunch of rich businessmen [angry over his attacks on their plutocratic mentality]--The Snowball

    by bjssp on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 10:35:10 AM PDT

  •  Firehouse Primary (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, bythesea

    It is almost over, I am trying to find the results page.

    Moderate Republican, PA-5

    by PSUCentrePA on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 10:47:01 AM PDT

  •  Gerrymandering (9+ / 0-)

    Not making a new point here, but just for the record:

    3) Partisan gerrymandering: Finally, all of the analysts quoted above agree that there truly were some egregious partisan gerrymanders that affected 2012 results. For instance, in Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Virginia, Republican candidates won between 49 and 53 percent of the House vote in each state, yet each state's Congressional delegation ended up about 70 percent Republican. States such as Michigan and Florida (on the GOP side) and Illinois and Maryland (on the Democratic side) are also frequently pointed to as being gerrymandered. But any analysis blaming the Democrats' failure to take the House solely on gerrymandering is probably too simplistic.
    The four states that are serving as the "for instance" in this quote have a collective delegation of 42R-15D, despite giving a majority of their vote to Democrats. And despite what the article implies, it wouldn't have been hard for a court-drawn map to give each of these states even delegations.*  If that had happened, Democrats would have gained 13 seats from these four states alone out of the 17 they'd need to control the House. The other four states mentioned roughly cancel each other out; maybe the Dems benefit by a seat or two thanks to the IL gerrymander.

    But then there are the gerrymanders in IN and WI (good for an extra R seat each), Texas (2-3 seats), Georgia (1-2 seats), and the other southern states - SC, AL, and LA - which would have collectively resulted in at least 2-3 additional swing seats. Nebraska could have resulted in another Dem/swingy seat as well.

    All told, I would estimate that gerrymandering alone cost the Dems 15-22 seats - enough that they likely would have won the House in 2012.

    These arguments about whether gerrymandering cost the Dems the house tend to be weirdly abstract, as if we can only treat the question by means of a general formula. But just go through the delegations state-by-state and it's clear that control of the House would at the very least be on a razor's edge if not for gerrymandering.

  •  Latest un-gerrymandered Florida congressional map (10+ / 0-)

    A few weeks ago I posted a hypothetical non-partisan Florida congressional map and here I wanted to update it a little bit, especially now that I've actually calculated the precinct level results. While I doubt the Florida Supreme Court would draw something like this if it strikes down the current map, that doesn't mean Democrats and activists shouldn't push for a California-type commission that would draw something like this in the future and you can probably see why:

     photo FloridaStateView_zps090b694b.png
    (click through for a much larger view)
     photo FloridaMiamiView_zps8be2b910.png
     photo FloridaSummary_zpscd426a29.png

    Several of the districts get a lot more Democratic while we don't really stand to lose much except for Patrick Murphy's district. The 2nd gets about half a point better for Obama, the 3rd 6% but now it's just 3% more Republican than the state downballot, making it competitive with a teabagger like Ted Yoho. Unfortunately the 5th goes from uber Dem to just 52.8% Obama (all figures two party only), but I just can't see us losing that sort of district in the Deep South though I'd feel much better without the more polarizing Corrine Brown (Jacksonville mayor Alvin Brown would be great). The 6th district moves drastically to the left with Obama losing it by just 1.8% and winning it by 5.2% in 2008 and even more so than the 3rd a strongly right wing Republican like Ron DeSantis is going to be very vulnerable. The 7th gets about 4% more Democratic and Obama won it by the same margin as the state, but John Mica is pretty entrenched so he'd probably still be strongly favored, but if he retires or if we had a wave this seat could definitely fall.

    Unfortunately Grayson's seat goes from Safe D to just 54.7% Obama, but it's trending Dem and he matched Obama's vote share so as long as we don't face another 2010 I think he'd be okay. To make up for it the 10th goes from Republican leaning to absolutely Safe D and in this version I changed it so that Orlando is not split, which had basically little impact on the partisanship or racial demographics compared to the prior version. As all previous versions had it, the 13th becomes decidedly Lean D moving from 50.7% Obama to 55.2% with the inclusion of St. Pete and David Jolly would likely lose. In southeast Florida, Murphy's district gets 1.2% worse for Obama so we'd have a harder time holding it than we already do if he ran for senate, but he's thus far surprisingly been very strong in 2014 he could probably hold it in a neutral environment.

    Aside from the 18th, all the other southeast Florida districts are positive for Democrats. The 22nd becomes 4% more Dem to where it isn't even a long shot for Republicans like it was in 2012 while the 21st is still safe. The 20th is no longer majority black but is still 41% black and would be effectively guaranteed to elect a black Democrat; basically this district in reality was a political gerrymander not a VRA requirement. Joe Garcia becomes safe in the 26th with his district getting 4% more Democratic to where Obama won it by nearly 16%. The biggest change from the previous version was the 25th where having actual precinct numbers reveal it voted for Obama by a whopping 9% after voting for McCain by 4%, meaning we would have a good shot at defeating Diaz Balart. The whole Hialeah to Naples crap the Republicans drew is absolutely not VRA required nor does it make good CoI sense. The 27th gets about 2% worse for Obama, but Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is very entrenched and unlikely to retire anytime soon anyway so that doesn't matter.

  •  Ohio-14 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, LordMike, ChadmanFL

    There was an absolutely spectacular ad on this site yesterday, urging Republican primary voters to "choose a real conservative" and vote against incumbent David "I'm not a moderate but a play one on TV" Joyce in the May 6 primary. Oh, I hope they do!!! If Tea Party lunatic Matt Lynch wins the primary, this district — Ohio's only swing district — flips Democratic.

    We have a strong, hardworking, progressive candidate in Michael Wager, who raised some decent cash, although not as much as Joyce. But if the teabaggers turn out on May 6, Joyce's cash will be of no avail. Joyce will be toast.

    http://www.michaelwagerforohio.com/

    Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

    by anastasia p on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 11:52:58 AM PDT

    •  Well, Joyce is certainly scared... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ChadmanFL

      ...every friggin' ad on youtube is his as well as on TV and radio.  Joyce is winning the sign war, too.  I even saw one on the other side of town (?????).

      "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

      by LordMike on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 01:47:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MN-08/Nolan fundraiser (0+ / 0-)

    Saw this today:  Rick Nolan had to cancel a fundraiser with Peter Yarrow (of Peter, Paul & Mary) after the NRCC went after him in online ads, saying Nolan was “putting sex offenders ahead of Minnesota families."  I didn't think Yarrow's 1970 jail term was still controversial to this day (I never even knew about it until this article), but is Nolan that shaky against Stewart Mills that he had to cancel?

    Under GOP pressure, Nolan cancels fundraiser

    •  Not sure that's indicative of a "shaky" standing (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, jncca, MichaelNY

      in and of itself.  Most politicians are understandably leery of any such association regardless of the passage of time.

      •  True (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        He was responding to questions about the issue in a radio show before he canceled.  

        I wondered since I keep occasionally reading that Nolan might be more vulnerable in that district than one might think at first blush.  Maybe I'm surprised since I've seen Yarrow in the last couple years as the featured guest on public TV fundraising drives (I think it was Twin Cities Public Television, might have been Wisconsin, perhaps even both), so to see the "sex offender" thing was a bit jarring - and the reaction from Nolan as well.  Plus, the NRCC does have a history of over-the-top accusations.

  •  Saw Bernie Sanders speak today in NC (8+ / 0-)

    He said he had been to SC earlier today.

    His speech was great.  Not too short, like Obama (my phone camera took longer to focus than his entire speech) but not too long and boring like Biden and some others (mostly lower level politicians).

    He briefly talked about his electoral success in Vermont, saying he got votes from many socially conservative working class voters who didn't vote for Obama.

  •  Good NYT profile on Scott Walker (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChadmanFL, Gygaxian
    Bucking history in a state known for the early-20th-century progressivism of Robert M. La Follette Sr., Mr. Walker appeared in the capital, Madison, three years ago as a blunt advocate of smaller government. Storms of protest greeted his move to roll back collective bargaining rights for most public-sector unions.

    That he survived a 2012 recall election over those union policies only solidified his power and enhanced his political credentials across Wisconsin and beyond.

    At 46, the fresh-faced Mr. Walker suddenly is on the national stage, an achievement that actually took more than 20 years. His advocates credit him for an improved business climate, a tuition freeze in the state university system and a jobless rate that has fallen to 5.9 percent from 7.8 percent. Emboldened by his recent successes — including passage of a more than $500 million tax cut last month, the third cut in just the last year — Mr. Walker this month announced his 2014 campaign for re-election.

    But with the prospect of an even higher office on the horizon, Mr. Walker finds his earlier track record under increasing scrutiny, not only for how closely it hews to conservative principles but also for the criminal convictions of some staff members and the release of staff emails that included racial and ethnic slurs.

    Link

    If he wins re-election this year I think he will ultimately become the establishment candidate in the primaries unlike Jeb he can actually make it through.

    •  What about the 250,000 jobs-in-first-term promise? (0+ / 0-)

      It's not going to happen.

      Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

      by WisJohn on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 02:08:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Is that enough to stop him? (0+ / 0-)

        He has a consistent base of support in the state that will support him no matter what. I don't think the failed pledge is enough.

        •  His base isn't 50%+1 of the state /nt (3+ / 0-)

          TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

          by Le Champignon on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 02:55:44 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Direction (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, wadingo, ehstronghold

          Especially since recent polling here in Wisconsin shows a majority thinks the state's going in the right direction.  I have to imagine even the recent tax cut helps:  my lower-middle-class paycheck just went up a little in the last month, and I'm sure a lot of moderates will see something similar and get that "right direction" things reinforced (presuming they credit the GOP for the tax cut).

          I still think a heavy push on the 250,000 jobs pledge could hurt, but it would have to be at a saturation level, and I don't see the Dems/Burke at that needed level.  The best way to defeat Walker is a combination of hammering the broken pledge, hitting the John Doe issues, and talking a lot about how Walker divided the state (and then pledge to "heal" Wisconsin).  Then maybe only someone with strong name recognition like Russ Feingold (understanding that he comes with caveats).  And millions and millions of dollars.  And even then, Walker would still be a slight favorite, barring something unexpected.  Frustrating, but the combination of his near-heroic standing among GOP voters who are guaranteed to turn out to vote, with enough moderates that seem fine with his leadership/style/other intangibles, is probably enough to get him to 50+1.

    •  I swear to god, I can never remember (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tommypaine

      what he looks like. I know I've seen pictures of him - several times - but I just cannot conjure an image. Does anyone else experience this Walker amnesia?

    •  First sentence in blockquote is hilariously absurd (6+ / 0-)

      Wisconsin is known at least as much for the reactionary morally bankrupt savagery of Joe McCarthy as it is for La Follette.

      It's always been a state that can swing wildly either way.

      46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 07:59:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  WI has both prog and con traditions (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Gygaxian, madmojo, sacman701

        Wisconsin was NOT solidly progressive for a century prior to Walker being elected, in fact, centrists have been known to win statewide (such as Lee Dreyfus, Herb Kohl, and Jim Doyle), progressives have been known to win statewide (such as Fighting Bob LaFollette, Bill Proxmire, Gaylord Nelson, and Russ Feingold), and conservatives have been known to win statewide (such as Joe McCarthy, Bob Kasten, and Scott Walker).

        However, one of the big reasons why Wisconsin is such a polarized state is due to the state having a progressive tradition dating back to the early 20th Century and a conservative tradition dating back to mid 20th Century.

        •  Proxmire vs. Kohl (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, ProgMD

          How do you figure the noted fiscal conservative, Proxmire, was more "progressive" than mainstream liberal, Kohl? Many of us felt that a lot of Proxmire's "Golden Fleece Awards" were anti-intellectual and not about actual waste at all.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 09:48:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Kohl wasn't all that liberal (0+ / 0-)

            He was open to the idea of privatizing Social Security during his time in the Senate, for example, and he voted for the Bush Tax Cuts.

            Also, strangely, I've seen left-wing bloggers who write about Wisconsin politics praise Proxmire to no end (despite being someone that could be compared to Tom Coburn, at least on fiscal issues) but bash Kohl. Probably because Proxmire spent very little money to get elected and Kohl bought elections with millions of dollars of his own money, since money in politics is about the only issue the far-left in Wisconsin actually cares about.

            •  I wasn't aware that Kohl had voted for the Bush (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              WisJohn, DownstateDemocrat, BlueSasha

              tax cuts, but in general, he was a mainstream Democrat. Proxmire may have sounded like Coburn, but in substance, I think you'd find that he wasn't that conservative.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 11:38:16 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  Kohl was all over the map. (4+ / 0-)

              Left-leaning, but all over the map, really.

              During the healthcare debate, I called his office, and the worker that answered said that Sen. Kohl supported the public option.

              I'm not necessarily a fan of money in politics, but Kohl used HIS OWN money (unlike RoJo, who inherited his money) to win. He also had his slogan "Nobody's Senator but Yours", that explained that because he was so wealthy, he couldn't be bought by special interests. And he never really was, in my opinion. Herb Kohl did what Herb Kohl thought was right, and the voters of Wisconsin never re-elected him with less than 58% of the vote. In 2006, he was received 67% of the vote and carried all 72 counties (even the Circle of Ignorance)

              The only money Proxmire spent on campaigns was on postage to return campaign contributions.

              Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

              by WisJohn on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 11:46:28 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  The 1950s (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, MichaelNY, Taget, BlueSasha, gabjoh

        I recall Dave Obey (I think - might have been someone else, but pretty sure it was Obey) talking in an interview a few years ago about how solidly Republican Wisconsin was by the 1950s.  Not necessarily conservative Republican as a whole, though there was plenty of that.  However, GOP enough that in his view, the Democratic party was barely a factor in the state.  As many of us know, even Obey was a Republican at the time.  What shook the GOP hold on the state was the fallout from Joe McCarthy and, ultimately, Bill Proxmire's election to the Senate.  Otherwise, it's possible Wisconsin's mid-20th century GOP tradition might have become even stronger and more relevant through the decades.

        Does make one wonder if Gaylord Nelson would have had the opportunity to rise politically in the state to make the national difference he did.  You could take a "what if?" scenario to an extreme and argue that without Joe McCarthy, Wisconsin stays so favorable to the Republicans and the statewide Democratic party stays so ineffective that Nelson never gets elected to statewide office and Earth Day never happens.  (Yes, extreme "what if?" but quite possible by my understanding of the political makeup of my state by the 50s.)

        •  McCarthy was only one thing, and not the biggest (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf, gabjoh

          WI used to be three parties, plus socialists in Milwaukee.  When the Progressive party disintegrated they went back to the Republicans.  After McCarthy defeated La Follette in the primary, by 5000 votes, the former Progressives gradually moved to the Democratic party.

          While a case can be made McCarthy made that happen, a better case can be made that it would have happened anyway just as it did everywhere else in the country as liberal republicans gradually became democrats.

          Wisconsin was left of center, with the Republican equivalent of "southern Democrats" changing in the 1950s and 60s from historically voting for Republicans to recognizing Dems were the (more) progressive party.

          All the problems we face in the United States today can be traced to an unenlightened immigration policy on the part of the American Indian. -- Pat Paulsen

          by tommypaine on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 01:04:08 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Walker would've been WI's Pawlenty (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Taget

      Without the recall. Boring, dull and just another Midwestern GOP Governor along the line of Snyder, Kasich etc. But the recall is what made him into a national hero for the right it put him on the map. It was such an incredibly dumb move for us I think this years race would be a tossup if it had never had happened and Walker would be on the ropes right now and not a Presidential contender.

      •  I agree with this to a point. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Taget

        In retrospect, the recall was a bad idea. The momentum clearly shifted against us in the year+ between the protests and the recall election. However, it was a good way to diffuse a lot of the built-up angst that was on both sides (especially the pro-recall side).

        I remember the day after the election. I was disappointed, but as I was taking down the Tom Barrett sign at the end of our driveway, I finally accepted that Walker was, and would continue to be, my governor.

        Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

        by WisJohn on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 09:32:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Salgado dropped from ballot. (9+ / 0-)

    More good news for Recchia.  Though very much expected.

    http://www.silive.com/...

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 02:31:08 PM PDT

  •  Open thread question (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, WisJohn, MichaelNY

    What's your favorite political slogan? It can be from past or present. And if you could make one for a current congress person (or their challenger) what would it be?

  •  Utah State Party Convetions! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, PSUCentrePA, KingofSpades

    So I'm back from the Utah state Democratic convention, and ready to give you all some info. The convention was fun, but with no surprises. Former Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon is now party chair (beating BYU professor Richard Davis 68-32). He said he'll focus on "bread and butter" issues, and will support the LDS and Hispanic caucuses to win in the state. Davis went on about how he's helped the party in Utah County (home of BYU), but it wasn't enough.

    In Utah's 1st Congressional District, Donna McAleer (woman veteran and 2012 nominee for the same seat) took two rounds of balloting to defeat physician Peter Clemens (who has been a state senate or house candidate in every cycle since 2008). Interestingly, McAleer was forced into a primary in 2012, and argues that she will do better now that she doesn't have to spend money in a primary.

    In Utah's 4th district, Doug Owens (moderate Dem and son of the late Congressman Wayne Owens) beat perennial candidate Bill Petersen 98-2.

    And finally, in SD-12, Claire Collard won the nomination to face State Senator Daniel Thatcher (who has been described to me as "dumb as a sack of rocks"), after her opponent LeGrande Peeples withdrew.

    At the GOP Convention, an incumbent was sent to a primary, another incumbent and his opponent (who was the former Dem incumbent for the seat) were ousted. Nothing else of note happened. Mia Love won her nomination with no problem.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 04:36:49 PM PDT

    •  Does Owens have a chance.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      at beating Love in November?

      TX-17 (Bill Flores-R), TX Sen-14 (Kirk Watson-D), TX HD-50 (Celia Israel-D). Senate ratings map (as of 3/10/14)

      by Le Champignon on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 04:41:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  A small chance (4+ / 0-)

        Especially if he campaigns like crazy and Mia Love messes up badly. I'd say about a 10% chance of winning.

        I actually think Luz Robles in UT-02 might have a similar chance of winning; she's been running for twice as long as Owens, there's more opportunity for growth in her district (as there are more unregistered Hispanic voters), and despite not having a good website, she seems to be active with fundraising (over $110,000 if I recall correctly) and campaigning. Plus Chris Stewart, even as an incumbent, is a weaker candidate than Mia Love, at least in my opinion (worse fundraiser, not very charismatic, doesn't seem to have as strong a ground game).

        Both are very likely to lose (in fact Likely R to Safe R is reasonable), but I think both will crack at least 40%.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 05:08:10 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's unlikely that there's a surprise from Love (6+ / 0-)

          Since she already ran a tough campaign that got a lot of attention in 2012, I doubt there's any skeletons waiting to be dragged out. And although she's probably not the best campaigner, she acquitted herself competently and didn't do anything very embarrassing, which should be enough to win the open seat.

          •  Yeah (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Gygaxian, MichaelNY

            Love's "skeletons" are her extreme conservatism.  Things that would matter in a swing district but that won't matter here.  Similar to Jim DeMint or Jason Chaffetz or other very very conservative Republicans who represent(ed) safe areas.

            21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

            by jncca on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 05:31:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Good point (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              PSUCentrePA, MichaelNY

              Though UT-4 is still the most Democratic district in Utah, if I recall correctly.

              And the "skeletons in the closet" could apply to Chris Stewart... Even after the mess leading to his nomination in 2012, he's still a bit of a cypher, and considering he's buddies with the likes of Glenn Beck, I bet he has some crazy, crazy comments in his past. None of his opponents (including his 2012 Democratic opponent) has the money or determination to uncover that much of his past. Luz Robles might be able to.

              Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

              by Gygaxian on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 07:36:26 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  How did voting work? Paper or electronic ballots? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Gygaxian, PSUCentrePA, MichaelNY

      Also, when is your last day of internet?

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 11:24:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There was both electronic and paper (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, WisJohn, MichaelNY

        I choose paper, because the electronic system was done through smartphones, and I don't own a smartphone. However, the electronic system failed halfway through the balloting and everyone who hadn't already voted with their phone had to switch to paper anyway.

        My last day of Internet is probably May 1st, since I'll be arriving at the missionary home at 8:30 AM on May 2nd.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 07:16:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I thought you all might like to know that.. (13+ / 0-)

    I have accepted admission into Lebanon Valley College for the Fall 2014 semester! I will be majoring in Poli Sci and minoring in Creative Writing.

    20, Male, MD-8. Fan of University of Virginia athletics.

    by Danny Ricci on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 05:48:20 PM PDT

  •  WI-SD-15 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PSUCentrePA

    Mike Sheridan, a former Wisconsin Assembly Speaker who was implicated in an explosive sex scandal in 2010, is running for the open Wisconsin State Senate seat currently held by retiring Democrat Tim Cullen.

    If Sheridian were to win the primary (he has two primary challengers, State Assemblywoman Janis Ringhand and Tim Cullen-backed candidate Austin Scieszinski), he could very well throw an usually "Safe Democratic" seat to the GOP if a Republican candidate were to run.

    •  Do you have proof? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      PSUCentrePA, BlueSasha

      Do you have proof that Cullen has endorsed Scieszinski? I haven't seen anything that would suggest that.

      Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

      by WisJohn on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 08:32:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Cullen has not endorsed Scieszinski. He said nice (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, MichaelNY

        things about Austin, and given their long personal history, he may be voting for him, but that's different from an endorsement.

        Also, good riddance as regards Mike Sheridan. He won't win (Scieszinski and Sheridan will just cancel each other out in Janesville), but he was bad for this state from '09-'11 when he had the opportunity to be a great speaker.

        "Go Forth in Love and Peace" --Be Kind to Dogs -- And Vote Democratic" --Dying words of Senator Thomas Eagleton, 2007

        by BlueSasha on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 04:48:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  MI St. Sen: MI-SD 20 gets interesting (9+ / 0-)

    What was either a toss-up or even lean R in a competitive Michigan state senate seat has gotten even more interesting.

    Former GOP State Reprensentative Lorence Wenke widthrew his bid for the 20th Senate District (Kalamazoo) and announced he'd left the party...and will now run as a Libertarian:

    KALAMAZOO, MI – Former state Rep. Lorence Wenke is leaving the Republican Party and will run for state Senate in November as a Libertarian.
    Lorence WenkeLorence Wenke

    In a statement dated April 25, the long-time Southwest Michigan Republican cited the party's "discrimination" against gay citizens and what he characterized as "taxpayer abuse," which he said has created "an elite class" of government employees, as the reasons behind his decision.

    "I support the constitutional right of our gay family members to enjoy the same rights as our heterosexual family members," Wenke wrote, citing his record as one of just two Republican legislators to vote against the Marriage Protection Amendment to the Michigan Constitution in 2004.

    ...

    In his statement, Wenke called out Gov. Rick Snyder and Lt. Gov.Brian Calley for refusing to take a position for or against gay rights. "I can only assume it is because they fear the political consequences," he wrote.

    Saying that Republicans encouraged churches to support political efforts to discriminate against gays by condemning them for "what they perceive as a sinful lifestyle choice," Wenke added, "These same people often ignore the clear teachings of Jesus and Paul stating that remarriage after divorce is committing adultery."  

    Wenke also cited Rep. Chris Ward's regret of his support for the Marriage Protection Amendment Act of 2004 in the letter. In April, Ward offered a mea culpa, writing that he had been "on the wrong side of history.

    Being that Kalamazoo is basically purple, this should give state rep. Sean McCann (D-Kalamazoo) the leg-up.  This move is a fairly big deal, as I wonder what kind of implications it will have for the MI GOP beyond just this district.  

    There are going to be a lot of moderate Republicans thinking about their future, particularly as it comes to the state party's stance on gay rights.  Ryan Fishman, a 25-year-old former Republican, left the party and is running as a Dem in SD-13 citing same-sex marriage as one of the breaking points.  What was looking like a fairly safe Republican seat is now competitive.  Former Republican state rep. John Stewart announced he was leaving the party last December and then declared as a Democrat before declaring as an Independent in SD-7 (in Western Wayne County), which was already looking as if it was going to the Dems before this.

    The GOP is really digging themselves a hole, here.  Snyder and party chairman Bobby Schostak better decide fairly quickly which medicine they want to take.

    Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

    by MetroGnome on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 08:18:51 PM PDT

    •  This seat is an absolute must win (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, ChadmanFL

      considering it went for Obama by 13% and is by far the bluest one they hold. The 7th barely voted for him, while Romney carried the 13th by about a point, meaning we really need to take all three to even have a shot at control.

      •  To be clear (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Though we are not supposed to say it, no one is even talking about control of the state senate.  We're talking abouot a body we haven't controlled since the early/mid-80's when it was even then far less gerrymandered.  To tell the truth, so long as we break the GOP's supermajority it will be seen as a success.

        Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

        by MetroGnome on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 09:37:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  That's one of a few really frustrating seats (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      There seems to be a small group of Michigan Senate seats that are light blue federally, but seem to consistently elude Democrats. The Kalamazoo seat is one of them. The others that I remember are one that's mainly Saginaw County, and another that's mainly Muskegon County. I don't have much historical data to work with, but considering Democrats failed to pick up these districts in 2006 (though they came painfully close in all three), it's a good bet that they've won none of the districts since at least the 1994 elections.

      •  Three (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        There are three seats I'm hearing that the state party is expecting to win: The Saginaw seat, the Kalamzoo seat, and the western Wayne County seat.  There are two or three other seats where we're expecting to seriously compete.

        To tell you the truth, though, it seems slowly but surely the party isn't so much worried about turnout as it is just how good this gerrymanders have been.  Despite national conventional wisdom, there is a feeling on the ground, here, that the playing field is titling towards the Dems and putting the GOP on defense.  

        And putting whatever the mood is aside, there are more Republicans and more Republicans termed out than Democrats in both houses, which means they have more to defend, anyway.  On paper, they've appeared to shore up their shakey seats fairly well.  We'll have to see how well these gerrymanders hold.

        Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

        by MetroGnome on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 11:28:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  CA-11: Blast from the past (9+ / 0-)

    I was reading A Rage for Justice, a biography on Phil Burton (of Burtonmander fame), and came across this passage about George Miller's failed 1969 run for the California State Senate:

    Working a room of labor lobbyists at a San Francisco political event, Burton extolled the virtues of the twenty-three-year-old Miller to all who would listen as he hit them up for money. Turning to one new face, he demanded, "You, what are you going to do for young Miller?"

    "But Congressman Burton," the young man stammered, "I am George Miller."

    Miller eventually joined Burton in Congress in 1975 and was his ally until Burton died in 1983.

    24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

    by kurykh on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 08:50:18 PM PDT

  •  South Korean PM resigns from office (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Chung Hong-won, the Prime Minister of South Korea, resigned, citing the botched response from the South Korean government to the ferry disaster there that took 187 lives (with many others officially missing but presumed dead) as his reason for resigning.

  •  KY-Sen: GOP steps in it again with "empty dress:" (6+ / 0-)

    https://twitter.com/...
    https://twitter.com/...

    McConnell was there and left without a word when the event was over.  But apparently, they came to realize it would look bad if they said nothing, so they called on the MC to apologize:
    https://twitter.com/...

    The one who coined "empty dress" was a top McConnell staffer, fyi: http://www.courier-journal.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 11:11:40 PM PDT

    •  Also, I got back from NYC earlier tonight (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Taget

      was visiting my playwright-to-be cousin in Harlem.  It was a great day to be out and about aside from the occasional rain.  Noticed some shopfronts in Harlem had "Vote Charlie Rangel - June 24th Democratic Primary" hanging up in them.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 11:16:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm confused about what actually happened (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Maybe because it's late. Did a Republican state Representative call Alison Lundergan Grimes fat? That's what I gather from the tweets linked.

        •  He seems to have said (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          that he didn't get why calling her an empty dress was offensive.  But maybe it would have been if they called her "fat under that empty dress."  He basically dug up an embarrassing rude comment that the campaign hoped to bury and rubbed it in a little deeper.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 11:48:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  NY-11: Grimm likely to be charged with fraud (3+ / 0-)

    of two varieties as well as obstruction of justice and perjury: http://politicalwire.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 11:28:59 PM PDT

  •  Michigan Jefferson-Jackson Dinner report (5+ / 0-)

    Bill Clinton was the keynote speaker at Michigan's Jefferson-Jackson Dinner for the Democrats, last night.  Apparently, this was the biggest of the dinners, ever, packing their ballroom at Cobo Center in downtown Detroit.

    From the Big Dog:

    "Politics is about power to them," Clinton told a paid crowd of roughly 2,000 at the Michigan Democratic Party's annual Jefferson-Jackson Dinner at the renovated Cobo Center ballroom in Detroit. "Politics should always be about people to us."
    From Gary Peters:
    Peters joined Clinton in championing the health care law during his own remarks earlier in the evening, blasting Americans for Prosperity and the powerful Koch brothers for funding controversial television ads that he said were false, with one exception:

    "I did vote for the Affordable Care Act," Peters said. "I believe in my heart and soul that everybody, no matter who you are, you are entitled to health care. That's what we do in the greatest country on earth."

    I tell you, this year is feeling like something special.  I keep hearing about how tough a years it's upposed to be, and it is.  But what I'm feeling and seeing is progress made every single day on the ground in a way I haven't seen it in long time.  I guess it takes totally being out of power to get people to remember what they've lost.  This is going to be a classic people/organizing vs. big money race, because the state GOP is nowhere near as unified in agreement on what they want to accomplish as the Dems are.

    Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Kodos.

    by MetroGnome on Sat Apr 26, 2014 at 11:54:05 PM PDT

  •  NY Times on CA-33 (6+ / 0-)

    http://mobile.nytimes.com/...=

    You'll be missed, Rep. Waxman.

    19/Sweden/Wonk. Prefers discussing opinions to having them. Learning by doing.

    by Tayya on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 12:00:01 AM PDT

  •  NE-Sen: Omaha World Herald endorses (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Taget

    Sid Dinsdale in the GOP primary. Interestingly they not Ben Sasse's connection to Sarah Palin and Ted Cruz as a negative. They point out that Dinsdale was against the government shutdown last year (Sasse was a big fan of it). The complaint against Osborn is not enough details.

    Since whoever wins the GOP primary is going to win the general, Dinsdale is actually my preferred candidate as well. However, the scant polling we've had of this race has had him at like 7-9%, so between Sasse and Osborn I prefer Osborn (because Sasse will be Ted Cruz Jr.)

    http://m.omaha.com/...

    28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 08:56:11 AM PDT

    •  Though, my prediction is (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Bart McCleay will win with 85% of the vote because yard signs.

      (Seriously though, for someone polling at 1% he has an impressive amount out there)

      28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

      by JDJase on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 09:02:33 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA-10: Not that I underestimate Comstock (6+ / 0-)

    but doesnt 54% seem weak in a primary that was basically designed for her?

    •  Yeah, with the voting locations concentrated (5+ / 0-)

      in her region of the district.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 09:34:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd say Tilt/Lean R for now (8+ / 0-)

        but DCCyclone is bullish and lives there.  He calls it "toss-up."  Is Foust that good?  Or did he sell his soul to Mephistopheles for success?  Hopefully it's the von Goethe version where he finds redemption.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 11:21:58 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  My rating is based on the fact that (5+ / 0-)

          Terry McAuliffe lost this by a hair despite living in McLean and doing very well there.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 11:24:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  See my reply comment below (0+ / 0-)

            Disregard pockets of overperformance or underperformance, the toplines are it.

            And McAuliffe won the whole election by just 2.5 points statewide!  The polls were wrong, if we thought it was going to be that close ahead of time we all would've been biting our nails and calling it a tossup!  So Terry losing VA-10 by a hair is a shrug.

            The district generically is slightly more Republican than the state as a whole, and if you want to combine that with an assumption of a "bad year" for the President's party in a midterm, then you can rate it favoring Comstock if that's all you want to consider...but that's wildly glib, a lot more goes into deciding the outcome than that.

            46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 09:27:13 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, I agree with Lean R (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, WisJohn

          for now.

          Just dont know if it was really an overwhelming victory for Comstock given the circumstances.

          But anyway, that's over, and she will certainly be tough in the general.

          I'll be happy if we are playing a little more offense/GOP is playing more defense as we approach November(VA-10, IA-03, MI-08, maybe WI-06, etc) given that it is tough map and political climate for Dems.

        •  Lean R (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          I have seen maps of Comstock vs. Foust's districts and the VA-10.  She has an advantage there, plus with three other counties that will likely provide a adequate GOP Floor, all she has to worry about is winning enough of Louden.  So I think I will keep this at Lean R.

          Moderate Republican, PA-5

          by PSUCentrePA on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 12:01:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Of course we're basing this on our hunches (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            PSUCentrePA, MichaelNY

            as we've seen no polling.  I wonder what DCCyclone is seeing to make it straight tossup in his view.

            “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

            by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 12:04:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I can't speak for him (6+ / 0-)

              but the fundamentals point to a close race.  It's a swing district that gets bluer every year, and now an open seat with a well-funded top-tier Dem recruit.  Republicans may have a slight edge depending on how you think the year is going, but that's it.

              •  "depending on how you think the year is going"... (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, James Allen, Skaje

                ...is really the kicker that should decide this.

                That's really the only thing that worries me.

                Of course other things can always happen to worry me!  What if our side's messaging is a mess and Comstock's is good?  That sort of thing is unforeseeable.  But that sort of thing can easily go the opposite way, too, to our advantage.  One assumes the qualities of the campaigns cancel out, with Comstock likely raising more money but Dem support groups helping make up the difference as long as this stays on the board as a top priority (which it will through election day as long as the polling shows it in the single-digits).

                Focusing on maps is a bit misguided.  KingofSpades makes a fair point that McAuliffe lost VA-10 despite overperforming in his home of McLean......but the flip side is that Obama stayed within a point of Romney while underperforming in McLean (clearly bigger drops from '08 in precincts here than statewide, enough so that I was worried after closing Chain Bridge and Langley precincts on election night).  These types of analyses are dangerous because performance doesn't swing uniformly.  If major races in different years with different types of turnout are running razor-tight, that's what you use as your baseline to evaluate.

                And to the extent you want to consider this type of analysis of comparing elections, keep in mind this November will have higher turnout statewide and in NoVA than last year, because a federal midterm with a Senate race just produces more votes in Virginia than a Governor's election.  The disparity is greater up here because the federal government is a major employer and source of business here...Frank Wolf made a living catering to federal employees no less than any liberal Democrat would, and Comstock doesn't have that cred.

                46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 09:18:36 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  NE-Gov, -Sen: nice article about the Dems' (7+ / 0-)

    Campaigns for governor and senate and what they're doing while the republicans duke it out in primaries.

    http://m.omaha.com/...

    Also if you're interested, here's an artcle about how the Nebraska legislature is pretty "purple" for being so dominated by Republicans. The story notes that bills to expand Medicaid, repeal the death penalty, and ban LGBT discrimination all had majority support in the legislature (though all failed to overcome filibusters).

    http://m.omaha.com/...

    28, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 09:44:58 AM PDT

  •  Heard Charles Franklin, who does the Marquette (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Darth Jeff, jj32, Taget, DCCyclone

    poll, this morning. He spoke at my church's Adult Ed. between services. He said that the polling for the WI Governor's race has been relatively stable, showing Walker with moderate leads.

     He also showed us that Walker's Approve/Disapprove numbers remain stable at about a four-point 'approve' advantage. He showed us that Walker was upside down form th etime he took office until about December of 2011, or Januray of 2012. Franklin pointed to the first round of state senate recalls (in the late summer '11) that resulted in little change (Dems gained 2, for a 17-16 R-Maj.), and the strictly positive ads that Walker ran  ("Progress: Yes, Recall: No" was the message on those ads), that led to his polling recovery.

    Dr. Franklin also showed us job numbers. One of the things he pointed out was something he said that neither party wants to talk about. That is that Scott Walker is creating about as many jobs (~30,000/month) that Jim Doyle did from 2004 (when WI started to gain jobs again after the recession of the late '90s/early 2000s) to the start of the Great Recession. Dems don't want to talk about that because they want to paint Walker as a failure, and Republicans don't want to say that because they want to paint the picture that Walker is doing above and beyond what Doyle did.

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

    by WisJohn on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 09:54:41 AM PDT

  •  Wisc. Misc. (5+ / 0-)

    http://www.jsonline.com/...

    http://www.jsonline.com/...

    I can't do much analysis on these articles because I have reached the limit of my free articles on jsonline.com for the month, but the first one is about Gov. Walker's oldest son, Matt, who is the chair of the Wisconsin Federation of College Republicans.

    The second article talks about how there is a lot of retirements this year in the Wisconsin Legislature. At least 22 Assembly members so far have announced they will leave the legislature this year.

    Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

    by WisJohn on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 10:02:12 AM PDT

    •  Have you tried opening it under "Private (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Browsing" or "Incognito" (or your browser's equivalent) mode? That's a good way to get around the New York Times paywall, and it works for some other ones as well.

      "Pillows, but no sleep / Feathers, but no birds." | Pro-transit young black urban progressive (not liberal) | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | NJ-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | $15 and a union!

      by gabjoh on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 08:24:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NY-11: Grimm another headache to the GOP (8+ / 0-)

    and apparently, they think it's improbably to get his name off the ballot: http://www.politico.com/...

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 11:29:52 AM PDT

    •  And a dozen charges to be brought against him (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, LordMike

      I still wish that reporter pressed charges.  He was a wimp to accept the apology and move on.  Grimm made a credible threat (they were standing next to a balcony and Grimm had a height and mass advantage over him).

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 11:32:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IL SEN 2016: Kirk v. Duckworth? (5+ / 0-)
    Political circumstance could one day bring Sen. Mark S. Kirk, R-Ill., and Rep. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., together on a ballot against each other. But for now, military service and traumatic injury have united them at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, where they often run into one another and visit with troops.

    Kirk, who is partially paralyzed from a stroke he suffered two years ago, does rehabilitation at the center when he’s in Washington for Senate sessions. He is diligent about his treatment there, in part because he is getting in shape for a grueling 2016 re-election bid.

    Duckworth, a former assistant secretary for the Department of Veterans Affairs, spent a year at Walter Reed after she lost her legs in a helicopter crash in Iraq in 2004. She frequently visits the center that’s now in Bethesda, Md., and bumps into Kirk while he’s making his rounds. Duckworth tops the Democrats’ list of lawmakers who could run for Senate in Illinois someday.

     But in a recent extended interview with Roll Call, Kirk talked about his “good” relationship with Duckworth, showing off the braces he wears on his legs to help him walk — equipment he says is very similar to hers.

    Link

    I think Duckworth would make an excellent candidate in the case that Madigan decides to pass on running for Senate.

  •  btw, Oregon is going to go on the federal exchange (12+ / 0-)

    and scrap our own. It will save a lot of money, though not as much as has been wasted already.

    The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

    by James Allen on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 01:08:12 PM PDT

    •  Does that hurt Kitzhaber at all? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      Oregon seems to be blue enough for him to be fine.

      Gay farm boy, 21, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -5.12, -1.74, "No tears. Remember the laughter, stories and good times we shared."- My dad (1959-2013).

      by WisJohn on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 01:15:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  it feels like it's more than that (9+ / 0-)

        their numbers kind of surprise me how big they're up, which makes me feel like there's a general satisfaction for how things are right now in the state, and that any problems that we've had like this people aren't that upset about, maybe because they aren't harming many people other than a general waste of money, but it wasn't even that much. I think people feel like even if they aren't doing everything right, for the most part the incumbents are trying to address our problems in a responsible way.

        As for how this particular action affects the race, I think if anything it will help reduce negative headlines and really weaken the potency of the issue, because soon things will be working for people who will be applying later in the year, and we'll stop hearing about the nonfunctional website and continuing to waste money and people who can't sign up. Richardson will say its an embarrassment or something, but it really doesn't seem like anyone is really upset enough to punish Kitzhaber except the people who are already against him. It seems like there's a huge disconnect between all the negative headlines and the polling, but I'll take it.

        The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

        by James Allen on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 01:30:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  something else (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, gabjoh

        in terms of the impact of the incompetent administration of the exchange, I feel like the impact has not really been felt personally. If we'd suffered a natural disaster, something really discrete and harmful, and Kitzhaber's response had been incompetent, that would have been a huge deal. Not enough to elect someone as conservative as Richardson, but still. A non-functioning website, where they were eventually able to enroll people by paper, didn't really harm that many people and certainly not in a big way. And the other benefits of health reform, like the Medicaid expansion, are affecting more people and in a more substantial way. I don't think the harm from the website is big enough for enough people to really feel it in a way that the state would now find him unacceptable compared to a Republican.

        The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

        by James Allen on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 01:50:59 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  How did they fail at this? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 01:34:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  they tried to do something that was much more (9+ / 0-)

        complicated than necessary. They wanted a one-stop shopping website for state services where someone could apply for many different programs.

        They contracted with Oracle to do it and they couldn't but kept saying everything was fine until it was too late. And the state had a really badly written contract so they can't hold them accountable.

        The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

        by James Allen on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 01:38:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's what they get for trusting Oracle (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          they're sleazy.  It's like if they contracted Diebold to make voting machines.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 01:43:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Something similar happened in Indiana (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, LordMike

          with Daniels and IBM (I think) in regards to welfare privatization. It was an epic debacle and cost the state a shit ton of money. Some have speculated it's one reason he didn't run for president.

          "We have learned to turn out lots of goods and services, but we haven’t learned as well how to have everybody share in the bounty. The obligation of a society as prosperous as ours is to figure out how nobody gets left too far behind."--Warren Buffett

          by bjssp on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 08:39:59 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  There are lots of horror stories like that... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone

            The common thread being that the vendor is a large firm that provides the software/hardware and insists on using their in house consulting as part of a project.  That should be a red flag for anyone, but time and time again, business and government clients fall into that trap.  They typically end up losing.

            "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

            by LordMike on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 08:48:33 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  "badly written contract" (4+ / 0-)

          As a lawyer myself, that phrase makes me shudder and blush.

          I hope never to be associated with such embarrassing work.

          46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 09:03:20 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  They used Oracle... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        That is all one needs to know...

        "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

        by LordMike on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 04:44:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, don't they have some right-wing ties? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          They should have known better than to trust a group that has no drive to do anything past the bare minimum on stuff like this.

          “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

          by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 05:25:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It has nothing to do with right wing ties.... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            This is the standard operating procedure by a good number of database and big consulting companies--get the client sucked in, then charge thousands of dollars an hour for consultants for implementation, and then suddenly, you are 5 to 10 times over budget and out of time.  Then you throw more money at it to meet the deadline which only makes it worse. In the end, the client is hosed, while the consulting and/or database company CEO gets a new yacht.

            Ironically, Oregon would have been better off using Microsoft.  But Oracle's based out of Oregon, so you gotta go with the home team even if they aren't the best choice.

            "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

            by LordMike on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 06:15:24 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Oracle is based out of the San Francisco Bay Area (4+ / 0-)

              We would know: my hometown got hosed by Larry Ellison's toy competition.

              24, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-14. DKE folk culture curator.

              by kurykh on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 07:05:38 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I thought Ellison lived in Oregon, though... (0+ / 0-)

                ...perhaps that's old data.  I haven't been in the loop with Oracle since the 90's.

                "I know you cannot force people to care. Ukraine is far away for many, all have own problems. But even if cynical, realize problem will grow. It isn't only people like me, raised in a dictatorship, who don't want it to happen to others"-Gary Kasparov

                by LordMike on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 07:12:25 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  I (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike

                was hoping when Kim Kardashian and Kanye West violated the sanctity of AT&T Park with that elaborate "Will you marry MEEEEEEE?" ceremony Larry Ellison would turn up with his yacht. After all ferry boats dock at AT&T park whenever there is a game after all...

                The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

                by ehstronghold on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 07:56:23 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Yeah, Oracle dimished Sun Microsystems. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike

              Sun was a pioneer in watching/playing content on the internet.

              “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

              by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 07:27:40 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Fun Fact (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades

                Facebook (which occupies the offices Sun used to have) still has a Sun logo on the reverse side of their main sign at the entrance to the offices in order to remind employees what happens when you stop innovating, and that even the mightiest can fall.

                21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

                by jncca on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 09:18:36 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  California's White voters (9+ / 0-)

    I'm doing my best to approximate Obama's % of the White vote in every county in the state.  The numbers should be accurate with a margin of error of 3 or so.  Maybe 5 but hopefully not that bad.  It's tough though, especially as Hispanic turnout is so different in different parts of the state.

    Interesting fact: Tulare County is over 60% Hispanic, but it's electorate is approximately 60% White and only 29% Hispanic.  If you want an idea of why Texas is so tough to turn blue, look at Tulare.

    21, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Idiosyncratic, pro-establishment. Liberal, not progressive. For the poor, the children, the planet, and the rule of law.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city.

    by jncca on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 02:24:31 PM PDT

    •  My father was born in Tulare County... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bythesea, PSUCentrePA

      And yeah, the CVAP gap in places like this are such a pain.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 02:28:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It isn't just CVAP as you probably know (6+ / 0-)

        actual turnout of eligible Hispanics is horrendous in places like the CA central valley or Dallas/Houston metros. For instance total population in CA-21 was 71% Hispanic at the census, CVAP was about 49%, and the 2012 electorate was probably a low closer to 40% at best despite Obama heading the ticket.

        That's why some of us do believe Texas could be competitive somewhat soon, but not necessarily that it will. We'd need 10's of millions of dollars getting those people registered in conjunction with a compelling candidate (not Wendy Davis) to vote for (president). I was really hoping Republicans would've nominated any of the non-Romney clowns so that Obama would have enough of a lead and enough money to sink a ton into Texas and see what happens, but alas that did not happen and might not have even without Romney.

        As a side note I find it fascinating that all three of David Valadao, Devin Nunes, and Jim Costa are of Portuguese decent multiple generations back, rather than Hispanic, as was former Rep. Dennis Cardoza. Who was the last Hispanic person to represent any of the Central Valley?

  •  Whoever is running the NH GOP's Twitter account (7+ / 0-)

    has lost his tiny mind today: https://twitter.com/...

    Someone said they are notoriously petulant on there and they're still mocking the NH Dems for failing to pick up a GOP-held open Executive seat as if they committed some horrible malpractice.

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 03:05:26 PM PDT

  •  OR-Sen: Conger only raised $64k in 1st quarter (10+ / 0-)

    The first man who, having enclosed a piece of land, took it into his head to say, "This is mine," and found people simple enough to believe him, was the true founder of civil society. - Rousseau, Discourse on Inequality Among Men

    by James Allen on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 03:17:47 PM PDT

  •  SD-Sen (3+ / 0-)

    Here's Rick Weiland's campaign song, "I'm Going Everywhere" (sung by Weiland himself to the tune of Johnny Cash's "I've Been Everywhere").

  •  WATN: Bob McDonnell repeatedly citing (9+ / 0-)

    Citizens United decision as part of his defense.

    Federal prosecutors say former Gov. Bob McDonnell is putting too much stock in Supreme Court Justice Anthony M. Kennedy’s declaration that “ingratiation and access … are not corruption.”

    link.

  •  KS-Gov (13+ / 0-)

    A lobbying firm with close ties to GOP Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback is under FBI investigation.

  •  Report from WaPo: Grimm may surrender himself (9+ / 0-)

    on Monday: http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    What does this mean?  Will he be handcuffed and hauled off to be booked?

    And he may be stuck on the ballot anyway:

    Despite Grimm’s legal predicament, Republicans are probably stuck with the embattled congressman on the ballot because the filing deadline for candidates passed two weeks ago. Some New York Republicans are angry about the timing of the charges, fearful that the case could get worse and leave them without a viable candidate in November. Grimm is the only Republican who represents any part of New York City.
    Even if they somehow get him off the ballot, it's a big black eye to the SI GOP, who have two Congressmen in a row who are crooks.

    Also, good to hear Recchia is out and about:

    While Grimm’s attorney has proclaimed the lawmaker’s innocence, the charges and the investigation have provided an opening for his Democratic opponent, former New York City councilman Domenic Recchia, who barnstormed the congressional district over the weekend. Recchia bounced around Staten Island and the southern end of Brooklyn, concluding the weekend at a charity event Sunday evening at the Yellow Hook Grille in Brooklyn. Upon his arrival, a waitress rushed up to Recchia and expressed interest in volunteering with his campaign.
    Also, his health food restaurant was named "Healthalicious."  How uncreative is that?!

    “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

    by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 08:19:19 PM PDT

  •  IA-Poll (6+ / 0-)

    From new GOP Firm Vox Populi!

    IA-Governor

    Branstad 45%
    Hatch 43%
    Undecided 12%

    It seems that this race has closed up.

    http://dailycaller.com/...

    But in the end, if you look how many were surveyed I would say that it isn't the best of polls.

    Moderate Republican, PA-5

    by PSUCentrePA on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 09:29:30 PM PDT

    •  Also, the fact that it's yet another... (6+ / 0-)

      GOP robopolling firm that has popped out of the woodwork to "counter" the likes of PPP.

      Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 09:39:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I wonder if they have some polling veterans (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        working for them or are basically doing this from scratch and by-the-book.

        “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

        by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 10:50:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  They have no track record yet. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      Also, Braley leads generic Republican 42-41.  Not bad, especially considering the lower-tier nature of the GOPers.  Also, 2016 is a three-way tie between Huck, Ryan, and Bush.

      “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things just happen and we call them miracles.” -The Doctor

      by KingofSpades on Sun Apr 27, 2014 at 10:50:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The bigger eye-popper is IA-Gov (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        They have Branstad up only 45-43 over Hatch with leaners pushed.  That's the closest yet among several polls showing serious closing.

        This is embarrassing and unexpected for the Iowa GOP that the Governor's race has tightened so much.

        I tend to still be skeptical that Hatch can keep this in play through the fall.  But I was skeptical he could ever close the gap this much in the first place.  The ethics stuff is really burning GOP Governors everywhere, it's quite remarkable.

        46, male, Indian-American, and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Mon Apr 28, 2014 at 06:01:37 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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