With all of the exciting stuff coming out of Virginia, I thought it might be cool to do two Virginia maps that might exist after 2020. By 2020, taking migration into account, I would say the odds are slim that Democrats have the trifecta (but better than the GOP having their trifecta) and the most likely scenario is we have a split. The Dems will probably/hopefully control the state senate while the GOP will likely control the assembly. Herring has a shot to be guv from 2017-2021 and Dems might want to push a map through then if they think they'll lose the 2021 race. And Herring might not be guv...TMac's tenure will influence that probability I'm afraid.
Anyway, in light of this I drew up a couple of maps, and the way they've been drawn give you 2008 PVIs but given how polarized Virginia is becoming, I really see the R districts I drew as trending red and the D districts trending blue.
Also, in light of the Supreme Court decision, I made the maps without making a black majority district. In the Democratic gerrymander, the 3rd is not quite majority white. In the court-drawn map, all districts have a white majority but I drew that map with a greater eye on linking communities of interest. Both maps were initially drawn without regard to any incumbents.
Democratic Gerrymander
District |
Color |
%White |
%Black |
%Hispanic |
%Obama |
%Avg Dem |
2008 Presidential PVI |
Incumbent |
1 |
Blue |
58.8 |
26.2 |
9.0 |
55.0 |
50.1 |
D+2 |
Rob Wittman |
2 |
Green |
60.4 |
26.2 |
5.9 |
55.6 |
51.4 |
D+3 |
Scott Rigell |
3 |
Magenta |
49.4 |
39.8 |
5.2 |
64.6 |
58.1 |
D+12 |
Eric Cantor |
4 |
Red |
58.1 |
33.6 |
3.9 |
56.0 |
51.5 |
D+3 |
Randy Forbes/Bobby Scott |
5 |
Yellow |
72.6 |
20.6 |
4.5 |
55.5 |
52.4 |
D+3 |
Bob Goodlatte |
6 |
Teal |
87.4 |
7.5 |
3.0 |
37.8 |
37.2 |
R+15 |
No One |
7 |
Gray |
75.8 |
17.0 |
3.6 |
40.6 |
37.9 |
R+12 |
No One |
8 |
Slate blue |
57.4 |
7.8 |
15.0 |
62.7 |
57.9 |
D+10 |
Jim Moran/Frank Wolf |
9 |
Cyan |
92.2 |
4.2 |
1.8 |
36.5 |
40.3 |
R+16 |
Robert Hurt/Morgan Griffith |
10 |
Pink |
68.5 |
7.2 |
10.8 |
55.5 |
51.4 |
D+3 |
Gerry Connolly |
11 |
Charteuse |
57.0 |
14.4 |
15.4 |
59.8 |
54.5 |
D+7 |
No One |
Southeast
District Descriptions
1: Hampton, Fredericksburg, Eastern Prince Williams County
2: Eastern Pennisula, Norfolk City, Virginia Beach
3: Richmond and Henrico Couinty, minority populated cities and counties to the south
4: Chesapeake, Portsmouth, Newport News, Williamsburg and some rural areas to the west
5: Democratic areas in central Virginia
6: Liberty University and Shenandoah Valley
7: Republican areas in central Virginia
8: Arlington County south of I-66, Springfield, Fairfax City, Chantilly, and Centreville
9: Southwest Virginia
10: Arlingont County north of I-66, Falls Church, Mantua, Reston, McLean, wrap-around to very conservative Fauquier and Culpepper Counties
11: Alexandria, eastern and southern Fairfax County, Manassas and most of Prince Williams County, small portion of Loudon County
Central
Ratings:
1) Lean D (Northam can run here?)
2) Lean D
3) Safe D
4) Lean D Incumbent Matchup or open seat/Likely D with only Scott
5) Likely D
6) Bob Goodlatte runs here, Safe R
7) Eric Cantor runs here, Safe R
8) Safe D
9) Safe R, Griffith wins primary
10) Frank Wolf runs here and it is Likely D, Otherwise Safe D
11) Safe D
Northern VA
Court-Drawn Communities of Interest Map
District |
Color |
%White |
%Black |
%Hispanic |
%Obama |
%Avg Dem |
2008 Presidential PVI |
Incumbent |
1 |
Blue |
75.7 |
15.8 |
4.4 |
41.9 |
39.6 |
R+11 |
Rob Wittman/Eric Cantor |
2 |
Green |
60.4 |
26.2 |
5.9 |
55.6 |
51.4 |
D+3 |
Scott Rigell |
3 |
Magenta |
57.1 |
31.1 |
5.6 |
59.3 |
53.1 |
D+6 |
Eric Cantor |
4 |
Red |
52.4 |
38.8 |
4.1 |
60.4 |
55.3 |
D+8 |
Randy Forbes/Bobby Scott |
5 |
Yellow |
78.5 |
14.2 |
2.9 |
50.3 |
48.6 |
R+3 |
Bob Goodlatte/Morgan Griffith |
6 |
Teal |
86.0 |
7.0 |
4.6 |
41.0 |
38.0 |
R+12 |
No One |
7 |
Gray |
63.6 |
31.1 |
2.7 |
48.0 |
44.9 |
R+5 |
Robert Hurt |
8 |
Slate blue |
58.7 |
13.0 |
14.8 |
66.2 |
62.1 |
D+13 |
Jim Moran |
9 |
Cyan |
91.3 |
5.9 |
1.5 |
38.3 |
42.3 |
R+15 |
No One |
10 |
Pink |
55.6 |
14.3 |
16.9 |
56.9 |
49.7 |
D+4 |
No One |
11 |
Charteuse |
58.3 |
6.2 |
14.0 |
60.2 |
55.5 |
D+7 |
Gerry Connolly/Frank Wolf |
Southeast
District Descriptions/How it is a community of interest
1: Richmond Exurbs, Fredericksburg, and areas to the north
2: Eastern Pennisula, Norfolk City, Virginia Beach (no different from Dem gerrymander)
3: Richmond and Henrico Couinty, suburbs to the south in Chesterfield County
4: Chesapeake, Portsmouth, Newport News, Hampton Roads
5: University areas of central Virginia
6: Northern Shenandoah Valley and North Central Virginia
7: Rural southern virginia
8: Arlington County, Alexandria, southern Fairfax County
9: Southwest Virginia
10: Washington Exurbs
11: Washington Suburbs
Central
Rating
1) Safe R-Whittman represents more territory but might have to defer to Cantor
2) Lean D
3) Safe D
4) Likely D Incumbent Matchup or open seat/Safe D with only Scott
5) Tilt R in open seat, Lean R if Griffith or Goodlatte run here
6) Bob Goodlatte runs here, Safe R
7) Likely R with Hurt, Lean R in Open Seat
8) Safe D
9) Safe R, Griffith runs and wins here
10) Frank Wolf runs here and it is Lean D, Otherwise Likely D
11) Frank Wolf runs in the 10th, Safe D
Northern VA