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Leading Off:
• FL-Gov: Just the other week, former state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink said she'd decide on whether to run for governor again ahead of the Florida Democratic Party's convention in late October. Well, she's made up her mind a month ahead of schedule, and the answer is "no." That leaves a mostly clear path to the nomination for ex-Gov. Charlie Crist if he wants it, though state Sen. Nan Rich is already in the race. Democrats are eager to unseat Gov. Rick Scott, whose approvals have been weak to poor throughout his three-year tenure and who has generally trailed Crist in early polling.
Senate:
• NE-Sen: Wealthy banker Sid Dinsdale, who had been scouting out a Senate run, just went ahead and joined the GOP primary field for this open seat. He also scored an endorsement from legendary former Nebraska football coach Tom Osborne, who also served in the House and waged an unsuccessful bid for governor in 2006. Three other Republicans are already in the race: Midland University President Ben Sasse, former state Treasurer Shane Osborn, and Omaha attorney Bart McLeay. So far, no Democrats have announced bids.
Gubernatorial:
• AZ-Gov: Arizona is one of a handful of states with "resign to run" laws, which require office-holders to quit their posts in order to run for other positions. These rules are kinda dumb, since you obviously don't have to resign when you're seeking re-election, and they've recently been relaxed so that now, incumbents can do everything except file formal nominating papers without having to leave their current jobs.
And that's allowed some state officials to make their 2014 elections plans much clearer, in particular Secretary of State Ken Bennett, who now definitively says he will run in the crowded GOP primary for governor. One notable Republican has headed in the opposite direction, though. Former Tempe Mayor Hugh Hallman announced that he's dropping down from the gubernatorial contest to run for state treasurer instead.
• IA-Gov: The first labor group to endorse in the Democratic primary for governor is a local branch of the retail workers' union in Cedar Rapids, which, interestingly, is going with state Rep. Tyler Olson. It's not entirely clear why the RWDSU is backing Olson, but his rival, state Sen. Jack Hatch, is known for having a long liberal record, so the union's decision seems to cut against type. This may just be a one-off, or it may mean that this race won't necessarily play out the way it might be expected to.
• MA-Gov: While Rep. Mike Capuano had expressed some interest in joining the Democratic primary for governor in the past, it wasn't clear how serious he was. Now, though, an unnamed Capuano advisor said on Friday that his boss "will likely announce a decision next week," in the words of the Boston Herald. (That would mean this week.) It certainly sounds like Capuano's ready to make a go of it, since the same article says he's hired "fundraisers, a pollster and media consultant." If he runs, it would also set off an intense primary for his dark blue 7th District House seat.
Meanwhile, state Sen. Dan Wolf might also re-enter the primary. Wolf suspended his campaign last month after the State Ethics Commission ruled he could not simultaneously run for office while owning and operating an airline (Cape Air) that pays fees to the state for the right to land at Boston's Logan Airport. Now, though, the panel says it's considering an exemption that would allow Wolf to pursue his gubernatorial bid and would also permit him to keep his seat in the state Senate.
• OR-Gov, -Sen, -04: Republican state Rep. Bruce Hanna, who used to be co-speaker of the House, has decided not to run for re-election, and he also says he has no plans to run for higher office. That could include the governorship, the Senate race, or a bid against Rep. Peter DeFazio in OR-04. Hanna did not, however, rule any of those possibilities out.
House:
• AZ-01: Even though he lives just outside the district, term-limited state House Speaker Andy Tobin says he's considering a run in Arizona's 1st Congressional District, which is held by Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. There are, however, two Republicans already in the race. State Rep. Andy Kwasman formed an exploratory committee in July, while wealthy businessman Gary Kiehne just announced last week.
Kwasman claims to "represent 49 percent of the Republican primary electorate" in his current district, while Kiehne can apparently self-fund. Tobin's district doesn't overlap much with AZ-01, but he's relying on the seat he represented until 2012, which did extend into the 1st CD, to serve as his home turf (and immunize him against charges of carpetbagging). With three credible candidates each with their own geographic base in this sprawling district, this could be a very hard-fought primary.
• MA-05: It's EMILY's List's second Bay State endorsement in as many days, and once again, they've chosen one candidate in a Democratic primary where two women are running. The group, which supports pro-choice female Democrats, is backing state Sen. Katherine Clark, who had already been on their watch list, over fellow state Sen. Karen Spilka. Three other hopefuls are also in the race: state Sen. Will Brownsberger, Middlesex County Sheriff Peter Koutoujian, and state Rep. Carl Sciortino. The primary is Oct. 15.
Speaking of the primary, I've always been hesitant to cite data from the Emerson College Polling Society. It's not a school-run polling operation like you see at Quinnipiac or Siena or Rutgers or many other universities, but rather a student club about which we know little. While they did accurately predict the final margin in the Massachusetts Senate special earlier this year, they also recently released a poll showing Democrat Terry McAuliffe with a 10-point lead in the Virginia gubernatorial race, a margin no other pollster has found.
But I will reluctantly link their new MA-05 poll, if for no other reason than we have absolutely no hard numbers on this race. Clark leads with 24 percent, while Koutoujian is at 19, Spilka at 16, Brownsberger at 11, and Sciortino brings up the rear with 5. However, there are a few things to note. For one, the number of respondents is small—at 310, it's grazing the minimum acceptable sample size. For another, ECPS polled over Yom Kippur; the district has notable Jewish pockets, including Brandeis University. Finally, the poll was in the field just before Clark and Sciortino went up with TV ads, so those buys may have already changed the lay of the land.
Grab Bag:
• Census: You'll want to bookmark this: our Google Docs version of the newly-released racial breakdowns from the Census Bureau's 2012 American Community Survey, for all 435 congressional districts. You'll also want to save this version, which compares population counts from the actual 2010 census against the new ACS numbers. We've included both the overall population, so you can see which congressional districts are growing the fastest (by raw numbers or percentage), but also the racial stats for non-Hispanic white, black, Asian, and Hispanic residents, so you can judge the rate at which the various CDs are becoming less white.
In terms of overall population, only 69 districts lost population between 2010 and 2012, most of which were urban districts (though some were rural areas, most notably MS-02 and AR-04). The single biggest drop came in Cleveland's OH-11, which fell by 22,773 residents or 3.2 percent in two years. By contrast, the most rapid growth continues to take place in Texas, where the six top gainers are all located. TX-22 in Houston's southern suburbs leads the way, with a gain of 52,292 residents or 7.5 percent. The biggest non-Texas gainer is VA-11.
However, if you pare the numbers down to non-Hispanic whites, nearly half of all congressional districts show a loss in non-Hispanic white population. The biggest losses are occurring in districts that already have Hispanic majorities, with AZ-07 with the biggest percentage drop (going from an Anglo population of 207,000 in 2010 to 189,000 in 2012). The biggest white gain, numerically, is in TX-26 in Ft. Worth's suburbs, while the biggest percentage white gain is in an unexpected place: FL-24, a mostly-black district in the Miami area.
Numerically, the largest black gains continue to be in the Atlanta area, with GA-04 and GA-05 on top, while the largest Asian gains continue to be in California suburbs, led by the already-Asian-majority CA-17 and CA-39 in Orange County (represented by Republican Ed Royce, who seems more endangered by demographics with every passing year). The largest Hispanic gains, in raw numbers, are mostly in Texas, topped by Houston's TX-09, but with Democrat Alan Grayson's Osceola County-based FL-09 clocking in second. (David Jarman & David Nir)
• Votes: Yet another attempt by Republicans to cut food stamps passed the House on Thursday, with not a single Democrat voting in favor and 15 Republicans voting against. The GOP dissenters almost all sit in swing-ish districts and face potentially serious challenges. Some vulnerable Republicans did vote in favor of the bill most notably Mike Coffman (CO-06), Jeff Denham (CA-10), Tom Reed (NY-23), and Scott Rigell (VA-02).
Rigell, though, was the lone member of his party on Friday to vote against a dead-on-arrival measure to defund Obamacare. And only two Democrats crossed the line in reverse, the perpetually endangered Jim Matheson (UT-04) and Mike McIntyre (NC-07), both of whom represent very red seats.