1:28 AM PT: Woohoo! I'm awake! Slept past my alarm again, but at least I'm awake before the first results came in.
1:32 AM PT: First figures in from the Labor held seats of Braddon (TAS) and Eden-Monaro (NSW). Both seats are showing Labor behind at this stage of the night.
1:44 AM PT: 1.2% of the vote counted in Eden-Monaro, Labor ahead narrowly after preferences. 2.3% of the vote counted in Lyons, the Coalition ahead 56.1-43.9% after preferences.
1:46 AM PT: 22.5% swing against Labor in McEwen (VIC) with 0.7% of the vote in. Coalition leading 63.4-36.6% after preferences.
1:48 AM PT: ABC News projecting Labor having won 36 seats, the Coalition 58 seats.
1:55 AM PT: First preference figures in from the ABC:
Coalition: 50.3% (+2.1)
Labor: 27.9% (-5.4%)
Greens: 7.5% (-2.1%)
Others: 14.3% (+5.4%)
1:58 AM PT: Antony Green calls it for the Coalition.
2:07 AM PT: 2.6% of the vote counted in Greenway (NSW). Labor ahead of the Coalition on first preferences 46.9%-37.6%. As ABC commentators are noting, Labor is helped by the fact the Liberal candidate Jaymes Diaz was not ready for prime time.
2:11 AM PT: Labor narrowly ahead in Eden-Monaro with 20.4% after preferences 51.1-48.9%. As Antony Green notes, if Labor holds on in here, this will be the first time Eden-Monaro has not been won by a party that has won government.
2:15 AM PT: First preference figures at this stage of the night:
Coalition: 47.2% (+0.8%)
Labor: 31.4% (-4.4%)
Greens: 7.9% (-2.7%)
Others: 13.5% (+6.3%)
2:22 AM PT: Coalition picking up the seats of Coragamite, Lindsay, Page, Braddon at this stage of the night.
2:26 AM PT: ABC projecting Labor at 42 seats (down 10), Coalition at 72 (up 12).
2:34 AM PT: At this stage of the night, Labor is recording the worst primary vote figure since the 1930's.
And ABC projected Labor losing the seat of Bass....right before they started talking to the Labor MP from Bass!
2:37 AM PT: Kevin Rudd maybe out as Prime Minister, but he's back as the member of Griffith. Rudd is leading his LNP opponent 54.3-45.7% after preferences at this stage of the night.
2:41 AM PT: 4.5% swing towards the LNP in Brisbane. Looks like Labor's candidate Fiona McNamara is a three time loser. (McNamara previously stood for Labor in the seat of Dickson in 2007 and 2010).
2:54 AM PT: At this stage of the night Labor has lost the seats of Robertson (NSW 1%), Page (NSW 4.2%), Lindsay (NSW 1.1%), Bass (TAS 6.7%), Braddon (TAS 7.5%), Lyons (TAS 12.3%), Coragamite (VIC 0.3%), Deaken (VIC 0.6%), La Trobe (VIC 1.7%)
Note I will be reporting seat results in this format: Seat Name (State, Margin of Victory)
2:57 AM PT: Let me correct my previous post, I will be reporting seats in this format:
Seat name (State, Margin of victory at the last election)
3:03 AM PT: 16.9% of the vote in the Greens held seat of Melbourne:
First preference votes:
Greens: 44.5% (+8.9%)
Labor: 26.3% (-11.9%)
Liberals: 21.9% (+0.4%)
Others: 7.3% (+3.2%)
If these results hold, Adam Bandt is back in the parliament which will be one bright spot for progressives in Australia tonight.
3:08 AM PT: Labor holds the seat of Greenway with a 2.8% swing towards them. Greenway was the most marginal seat for the party in NSW going into tonight.
Labor can thank the fact that the Liberal candidate Jaymes Diaz was not ready for prime time here. Maybe Diaz can now figure out what the Coalition's plan to stop the boats is.
3:18 AM PT: Clive Palmer (the super rich mining billionaire) is currently leading the LNP candidate in the seat of Fairfax 53.5-46.5% after preferences. But we won't know the result tonight because there are about 30,000 pre poll votes casted in the electorate.
3:20 AM PT: Outgoing defense minister Stephen Smith is saying at this point in the night Labor will lose between 10-20 seats.
3:34 AM PT: First preference votes at this stage of the night:
Coalition: 44.4% (+1.5%)
Labor: 34.6% (-4.4%)
Greens: 8.5% (-2.9%)
Others: 12.6% (+5.9%)
Labor seats changing hands at this point:
Banks (NSW 1.4%), Bass (TAS 6.7%), Braddon (TAS 7.5%), Coragamite (VIC 0.3%), Deakin (VIC 0.6%), Hindmarsh (SA 6.1%), La Trobe (VIC 6.1%), Lindsay (NSW 1.1%), Lingari (NT 3.7%), Page (NSW 4.2%), Reid (NSW 2.7%), Robertson (NSW 1%)
The Nationals are also picking up Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor's seats of Lyne and New England.
3:45 AM PT: Eden-Monaro is no longer a bellweather seat. Mike Kelly holds the seat for Labor with a 3.4% swing towards the Liberal Party.
3:52 AM PT: As noted by panelists on ABC, the expected wipe out of Labor in Western Sydney has not happened, but on the other hand the swing against Labor in Victoria is larger than expected.
And all of those automated electorate level polls released during the campaign were mostly garbage.
4:23 AM PT: The seat of Dobell which was held by former Labor MP Craig Thomson who found himself in ethical hot water these past two years is still in doubt at this stage of the night with 61.8%.
Liberals leading Labor 50.1-49.9% after preferences at this stage of the night. Antony Green on the ABC has noted that candidacy of Nathan Bracken as an independent hurt the Liberals here.
Also Craig Thomson who was standing as an independent here has 3.9% of the primary vote here.
4:33 AM PT: The Labor held seats of Petrie and Capricornia in Queensland are on a knife edge right now. In Petrie both Labor and the Coalition are deadlocked at 50-50 after preferences and in Capricornia the Coalition is leading Labor 50.4-49.6% after preferences.
ABC is currently projecting the Coalition will pick up Petrie, but as Antony Green has noted we won't know the results in Petrie tonight.
4:38 AM PT: Kevin Rudd about speak at Labor's election night party.
4:40 AM PT: Kevin Rudd concedes defeat.
4:42 AM PT: Now in my last update for the night I will bring us up to the senate results which will determine whether or not Tony Abbott will get a working majority or Coalition and crossbench senators to repeal the carbon tax. I won't try to interpret the senate results so I'll just direct you the senate results here.