The senate districts in Texas are almost five times as big as the house district. I think it might be the biggest ratio of any state legislature. Anyways, here is the 31 member senate. As I did with the state house, I used the shortest splitline algorithm. The PVI baseline is 23-8 R. But four of those districts were won by Obama (but below his national %). In a good year I see the dems getting 13 seats. Unlike the state house, there aren't as many marginal seats and the coalitions are more set in stone (the senate districts have little over 100K more than congressional seats do).
I've never lived in Texas, but my assumption is that the Texas senators tend to be more "professional politicians" than those in the house and therefore less teabagger heavy and more collegial. So without further ado, here are the districts:
District 1 (Blue)
Racial Statistics: 72 Wh, 13.2 Hisp, 10.9 Bl, 1.7 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 0.6 Nat
PVI: R+24
Incumbent: Bob Deuell R-Greenville
Notes: This district is similar to the 2000s TX CD 4. Some of the far NE outskirts of the metroplex and the rest being the eastern Red River counties. Deuell’s old district took in some minority areas of the metroplex but now it has shifted east to take in some of the northern parts of the Eltife district. So it’s now even more republican a district. Safe R.
District 2 (Green)
Racial Statistics: 64.3 Wh, 17.5 Bl, 15.7 Hisp, 1.3 Oth, 0.8 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+23.2
Incumbent: Kevin Eltife R-Tyler vs Bob Nichols R-Jacksonville
Notes: Half of this district is new to Eltife and half is new to Nichols. I have no idea which one would move in this circumstance. Safe R anyways.
District 3 (Dark Magenta)
Racial Statistics: 71.1 Wh, 16.1 Hisp, 10.1 Bl, 1.2 Oth, 1.1 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+26.6
Incumbent: None
Notes: Safe R district but without an incumbent. Possible that Williams or Nichols moves here IMO
District 4 (Red)
Racial Statistics: 55 Wh, 23.4 Hisp, 17.8 Bl, 2.3 Asn, 1.3 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+13.5
Incumbent: None
Notes: No incumbent lives here, but a lot of it is part of Tommy Williams old district, so he could run here. This is an ancestrally dem district but it’s really trended R the past fifteen years or so. Someone like Craig Eiland (who is retiring from the house) could MAYBE win here, but otherwise it should go to a republican. Another question: Why is the Texas coast in such low demand? There’s really no Palos Verdes or Del Mars on the Texas coast.
District 5 (Black for Color Contrast)
Racial Statistics: 46.8 Wh, 34.2 Hisp, 13.4 Bl, 3.9 Asn, 1.6 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+3.4
Incumbent: None
Notes: This takes in some of Eastern Travis County, College Station, and some rural Central Texas counties in between. I call this the HWY 290 district. I have no idea who would run here. The R base is too conservative to win a district like this but the D base in Austin is left wing also. If a dem from the rural part of the district (a Max Sandlin type) runs, he could possibly win. Possible candidates include state reps Lois Kolkhorst (on the GOP side) and Dawnna Dukes (on the dem side)
District 6 (Teal)
Racial Statistics: 49.6 Hisp, 25.6 Wh, 22 Bl, 1.6 Asn, 1 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+4.1
Incumbent: Sylvia Garcia D-Houston vs. John Whitmire D-Houston
Notes: This is the NE side of Houston which is very blue collar and a mix between whites, blacks and Hispanics. This is one of the few AFL-CIO strongholds of the state. Whitmire reminds me a lot like Gene Green as they were both born shortly after WWII, have held elected office since their 20s and both are moderate-to-liberal democrats representing the blue collar areas of Houston. Garcia, although recently elected, is almost as old as Whitmire. I’m not sure who would win here in a primary.
District 7 (Dark Gray)
Racial Statistics: 31.8 Hisp, 25.9 Wh, 21.9 Bl, 18.2 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+0.7
Incumbent: Joan Huffman R-Southside Place
Notes: This is the most racially diverse district in the state and contains some of the SW part of Harris County along HWY 59 (the Alief and Sharpstown area) as well as a good part of Fort Bend County. On paper this should be a dem district but it still has a small RPVI and contains a lot of wealthy GOP areas in the Sugarland and Pecan Grove areas. This could go either way. State Rep Hubert Vo could challenge Huffman here.
District 8 (Slate Blue)
Racial Statistics: 50.3 Wh, 30.2 Hisp, 9.3 Asn, 8.2 Bl, 1.7 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+10.2
Incumbent: John Carona R-Dallas
Notes: I’m not actually sure if Carona lives here. He might live in the 16th. Regardless, this is one of the more ancestrally GOP parts of Texas, some of this area has been represented by a republican since 1967, with Ike Harris being its senator for decades. It’s possible that Kelly Hancock would run here.
District 9 (Cyan)
Racial Statistics: 37.9 Wh, 34 Hisp, 24.5 Bl, 1.9 Asn, 1.3 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+0.7
Incumbent: None
Notes: This is some inner ring and exurban areas SE of downtown Dallas. Pretty polarized district. The state reps here are Helen Giddings (too old) and Cindy Burkett, who may be too conservative for this district. It’s possible Wendy Davis could carpetbag here. Davis from what I know is sort of the Howard Metzenbaum of the Texas senate (always trying to kill right wing legislation)
District 10 (Deep Pink)
Racial Statistics: 67.8 Wh, 16.7 Hisp, 8.7 Bl, 4.4 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.5 Nat
PVI: R+18.4
Incumbents: Jane Nelson R-Flower Mound vs Kelly Hancock R-Richland Hills
Notes: A casual observer may see this as a rural district, but the rural areas (Montague, Clay, Cooke, Wise, parts of Denton) are a minority of the district. Most of the district is in the new money areas of Northern and eastern Tarrant county and southern Denton county (Trophy Club and Flower Mound.) Nelson is one of the more senior senate republicans and despite her background (she was a teacher earlier in her career) she has high rankings from Empower Texans. To her credit, she’s not a grandstander like Dan Patrick. Hancock is a freshman senator and I don’t know if he could beat Nelson in a primary. It’s possible he would run in the 8th district.
District 11 (Chartreuse)
Racial Statistics: 37.8 Hisp, 28.5 Wh, 27.2 Bl, 5.1 Asn, 1.3 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+15.5
Incumbent: Rodney Ellis D-Houston
Notes: This is basically Central and southern Houston and the most democratic part of the area. It also takes in the most dem areas of Fort Bend county (around Missouri City). Although its plurality Hispanic, only seventeen percent of the registered voters are and a lot of the voters are either blacks or white liberals (yes, there are some in Houston). Ellis is a veteran of the state senate and is best known for writing a thank you note to Empower Texans for giving him an F. So I’d assume he’s left wing. Safe D.
District 12 (Cornflower Blue)
Racial Statistics: 53.4 Wh, 24.7 Hisp, 15.8 Bl, 4 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+10.8
Incumbent: Brian Birdwell R-Granbury
Notes: This is the median district (16th) in terms of PVI. The district is anchored in the southern suburbs of Tarrant County which, as I’ve said before, are unlike Dallas in that there is no north south division. A political map of Tarrant County reveals that the dem areas look more like a sideways J. So the Tarrant part of this district is republican. Another part of the district is the exurban and rural areas to the SW which is the whitest and one of the most GOP parts of the state. There was a tornado there recently if I recall. Brian Birdwell lives here and as Texas goes so does this district. So he should be safe for the time being.
District 13 (Dark Salmon)
Racial Statistics: 49.6 Wh, 28.3 Hisp, 11.3 Bl, 8.7 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+18.5
Incumbent: Dan Patrick R-Houston
Notes: In the 1970s, this area was represented by Walt Mengden who was nicknamed “Mad Dog”. He was one of the few republicans in the senate at the time and was disliked by most of his colleagues. It wasn’t just that he was conservative, but he was an attention whore and obnoxious. Forty years later, this district is still represented by a republican of the same variety named Dan Patrick. One of the reasons I’m skeptical of Texas trending blue is that the transplants aren’t liberal like they are in Colorado. Patrick himself is from the blue state of Maryland. Anyways, this is one of the fastest growing parts of Texas and most of the people moving into the subdivisions probably share Patrick’s worldview.
District 14 (Olive)
Racial Statistics: 59.8 Wh, 30.8 Hisp, 3.7 Asn, 3.6 Bl, 1.7 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+4
Incumbent: Kirk Watson D-Austin
Notes: On paper, this looks like a conservative district based in the San Antonio exurbs. But half of the district is based in the central part of Austin, which probably goes 70% dem. Watson, the former mayor of Austin, (anyone here thinks he looks like Bill Maher?) should be ok here. Donna Campbell’s district takes in a lot of this area and it’s possible she runs here. Her home is just outside the boundaries and is in the 18th, where she could take a gamble possibly. Campbell is considered a teabagger and probably couldn’t win here, but she did hold Lloyd Doggett to 54% in a blue district a few years back.
District 15 (Dark Orange)
Racial Statistics: 39.3 Wh, 35.5 Hisp, 17.5 Bl, 6.1 Asn, 1.5 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+11.3
Incumbent: Tommy Williams R-The Woodlands
Notes: This takes in a lot of suburban areas along HWY 249. Some of it is trending to the democrats, but new home construction in the outer edges should keep it in the R column for now. Tommy Williams home is here but only a sliver of this is area he’s represented. If he runs in the 3rd or 4th, someone like Gary Elkins or Patricia Harless (both R state reps) could run here.
District 16 (Lime)
Racial Statistics: 49.6 Wh, 25.1 Hisp, 13.2 Bl, 9.8 Asn, 2 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+9
Incumbent: None
Notes: I’m not sure if he lives here, but I think John Carona would run here. This takes in a lot of the north Dallas suburbs and some of the more developed parts of Collin County. Carona I don’t think is terribly conservative and he probably fits this district pretty well. He should be safe unless the white population drops dramatically.
District 17 (Dark Slate Blue)
Racial Statistics: 41.6 Wh, 39.3 Hisp, 11.5 Bl, 6 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+13
Incumbent: Larry Taylor R-Friendswood
Notes: I’m under the impression that this area is full of “suburban rednecks”. A lot of people transplanted from either rural east Texas or from the formerly WWC parts of Houston. Larry Taylor, a freshman and former house member, is best known for making a vaguely anti-Semitic remark a year or two ago.
District 18 (Yellow)
Racial Statistics: 53.3 Wh, 36.5 Hisp, 7.7 Bl, 1.2 Oth, 1.1 Asn, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+20.1
Incumbent: Glenn Hegar R-Katy vs. Donna Campbell R-New Braunfels
Notes: This is sort of a Central coast district and looks like Ron Paul’s 97-04 district. The only really urban (more exurban really) is the NE part of the San Antonio metro and the outer part of Fort Bend County. This seat was actually picked up by a republican in 2006 of all years. Had the incumbent not retired, it could have remained republican until 2010! In an example of how professionalized the senate has become; Hegar, who is 42, is the youngest senator. A far cry from the early 70s when Lloyd Doggett was a 26 year old state senator. Donna Campbell may also run here since it’d be safer than the 26th or 14th.
District 19 (Yellow Green)
Racial Statistics: 65.4 Hisp, 27 Wh, 4.1 Bl, 1.9 Asn, 1.3 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: R+0.5
Incumbent: Charlie Uresti D-San Antonio
Notes: This takes in the western part of Bexar county and runs west to the border. It’s pretty conservative for a district where 51 percent of the registered voters have a Spanish surname. But Uresti should be ok here. Could maybe go GOP in an open seat race however.
District 20 (Pink)
Racial Statistics: 77.4 Hisp, 19 Wh, 1.8 Bl, 1.1 Asn, 0.5 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+3.5
Incumbent: Eddie Lucio D-Brownsville
Notes: Similar to the old CD 27. A district that runs from Corpus Christi to the border. I call this the South coast district. Corpus Christi often votes republican but the rest of the district is fairly dem leaning. Should be a safe seat.
District 21 (Maroon)
Racial Statistics: 81.1 Hisp, 16.6 Wh, 1.3 Bl, 0.5 Asn, 0.4 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: D+6
Incumbent: Judith Zaffirini D-Laredo
Notes: This reminds me of the 1980s TX 23. The anchor of the district is in Webb County and the southern part of Bexar county. The rest of the district is mostly farmland. Some of it is dem, some of it is republican – it really depends on whether the Mexicans vote or not. Should be a safe dem district.
District 22 (Sienna)
Racial Statistics: 58.8 Wh, 21.6 Hisp, 14.8 Bl, 2.3 Oth, 2 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+15.6
Incumbent: Charles Schwertner R-Georgetown
Notes: This is basically a compact Central Texas district. It’s not nearly as republican as some of the other rural and small city districts because Waco has a large campus and decent sized black population, Killeen is very dem leaning and it contains Williamson County, which isn’t as republican as the other Texas exurbs. Schwertner lives here but Brian Birdwell has represented a lot of this area and may run here, even though he lives in SD 12. Either way, Safe R.
District 23 (orange for color contrast)
Racial Statistics: 44.5 Hisp, 30.2 Bl, 20.8 Wh, 3 Asn, 1.2 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+17.7
Incumbent: Royce West D-Dallas
Notes: This is similar to the old CD 24 of the 1980s. Contains the heavily black parts of South Dallas, the equally Hispanic areas around Cockrell Hills, and the suburbs of Grand Prairie and Irving, which are both racially and politically diverse. Safe D.
District 24 (Indigo)
Racial Statistics: 70.2 Wh, 18.9 Hisp, 4.3 Bl, 4.3 Asn, 1.9 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+16.9
Incumbent: Troy Fraser R-Horseshoe Bay
Notes: I call this the Balcones Escarpment district. It’s sort of a buffer zone between Central and West Texas. I’m guessing half of the population lives in either Williamson County or western Travis County (which votes like Williamson) which is why this district isn’t R+25. Safe R.
District 25 (PaleVioletRed)
Racial Statistics: 52.1 Wh, 41.9 Hisp, 3.8 Bl, 1 Oth, 0.9 Asn, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+28.1
Incumbent: None
Notes: Anyone here surprised that the most republican of these hypothetical senate districts is on the border with Mexico? Looking at old state senate districts, this is essentially an amalgamation of the old 25th and 28th senate districts. No incumbent lives here, but my guess is that Robert Duncan, whose home is just outside the district, would run here.
District 26 (Gray)
Racial Statistics: 46.3 Hisp, 39.1 Wh, 9.5 Bl, 3.1 Asn, 1.7 Oth, 0.2 Nat
PVI: R+5.4
Incumbent: Leticia Van DePutte D-San Antonio
Notes: This district is anchored in the northeastern Bexar suburbs. I’m not sure if Van DePutte could win here. State Rep Lyle Larson is a possible challenger. Donna Campbell could also possibly run here.
District 27 (Spring Green)
Racial Statistics: 90.8 Hisp, 7.7 Wh, 0.9 Asn, 0.3 Bl, 0.2 Oth, 0.1 Nat
PVI: D+16.6
Incumbent: Juan Hinojosa D-McAllen
Notes: This basically takes in the most Hispanic and democratic areas of South Texas. Hinojosa (surprisingly, no relation to Ruben) is obviously safe here.
District 28 (Plum)
Racial Statistics: 67.8 Wh, 14.6 Hisp, 7.4 Asn, 7.3 Bl, 2.2 Oth, 0.6 Nat
PVI: R+18.7
Incumbent: Ken Paxton R-McKinney
Notes: Paxton, who was a state rep for ten years, was one of the highest rated members from Empower Texans and YCT. He also tried to unseat Joe Straus and even after the 2010 tea party wave, only managed to get two dozen people to vote for him. So as a newly elected senator, I’d assume Paxton would play the role as Dan Patrick’s tweedle dum. I’d expect this area to have around 1.2-1.3 million people by 2020. Safe R.
District 29 (DarkSeaGreen)
Racial Statistics: 82.2 Hisp, 13.1 Wh, 2.6 Bl, 1 Asn, 0.7 Oth, 0.3 Nat
PVI: D+12.7
Incumbent: Jose Rodriguez D-El Paso
Notes: This is coterminous with El Paso County. Safe Dem.
District 30 (Light Coral)
Racial Statistics: 62.2 Wh, 26.8 Hisp, 7.3 Bl, 1.7 Asn, 1.4 Oth, 0.5 Nat
PVI: R+19.3
Incumbent: Craig Estes R-Wichita Falls vs. Wendy Davis D-Fort Worth
Notes: Another previously rural district shifting into the urban areas to meet population requirements. Wendy Davis I think lives here but there’s no way she would go on a suicide run here. She’d probably run in SD 9 or 12.
District 31 (Khaki)
Racial Statistics: 58.3 Wh, 32.4 Hisp, 6 Bl, 1.6 Asn, 1.2 Oth, 0.4 Nat
PVI: R+27.6
Incumbent: Kel Seliger R-Amarillo vs. Robert Duncan R-Lubbock
Notes: This district is based in the Texas panhandle, some of which has been voting republican for sixty years. It also contains most of Lubbock. The areas to the southeast (which include some of Abilene) are less ancestrally republican, not that it would matter here. Safe R obviously.
So having read this write up; any questions/comments?