5:24 PM PT (jeffmd): The city of Chicago's now 24 percent reporting, and Robin Kelly has a huge lead with 56%. 9th Ward Alderman Anthony Beale is in 2nd with 18, and Debbie Halvorson's in 3rd with 14.
5:29 PM PT (jeffmd): Suburban Cook County is also reporting now some votes now, about 10% reporting. Kelly is also doing well there, at 57%. Halvorson's in second there at 23 and Beale in 3rd at 8. This one's over, folks.
5:35 PM PT (jeffmd): Well, there's one Will County precinct reporting, where Halvorson is commanding with 84% to Kelly's 14%. (The raw margin itself, though is only 80 votes. Kelly's margin from the city itself is 1,640.)
5:37 PM PT (jeffmd): And for every one of Debbie's precincts, Kelly responds with more precincts from the city. The latest add (14% of precincts) boosts Kelly to 58% in the city (and a 2,994-vote margin over Halvorson).
5:39 PM PT (jeffmd): Suburban Cook is rolling in now too, with 38% reporting there. Kelly's holding steady at 57% there, good for a 4,054-vote margin. More precincts in Will County have reported too, where Halvorson's margin has closed to a more reasonable 62-29.
5:43 PM PT (jeffmd): More precincts from suburban Cook, bringing the district to 51.5% reporting. Kelly's holding on to her commanding lead at 58%. (Halvorson's at 18%, Beale at 10%). Nothing yet from Kankakee, but it won't matter; Debbie's trailing by 11,000 votes at this point.
5:47 PM PT (jeffmd): Another update from the city of Chicago and Will County, bringing the district to 58% reporting. Same story - Kelly 57, Halvorson 18, Beale 10. Notably, the more recent Will precincts have been better for Kelly than the early ones; she's up to 34% there now.
5:56 PM PT (jeffmd): Kankakee has started to report now. While Halvorson's commanding a solid 84-13 margin there, the votes cast there are also minimal. Kelly's lead stands at a solid 13,538 votes.
6:01 PM PT (jeffmd): 61% reporting now, with almost all of Will County reporting. That claws Halvorson up to 22, but Kelly's still in commanding position at 55. (Beale at 10.)
6:15 PM PT (jeffmd): The precincts keep rolling in, with 67% reporting now. Kelly's at 54, with Halvorson at 23 and Beale at 10. This doesn't look like it'll change much...we're projecting that this will end up 53-23-10 or so.
6:23 PM PT (jeffmd): 72% reporting now, and it's still 53 Kelly-23 Halvorson-10 Beale.
This map of Will County is really telling. Outside of Monee township (which has a large Black population), Debbie is walking away with the county, racking up upwards of 80-85% in the more rural townships (and her home base of Crete).
6:36 PM PT (jeffmd): A few more notes: did Halvorson's crossover voting strategy have some effect? Possibly! It's looking like Will and Kankakee County will each make up 8% of the vote tonight, up from 5-6% in the 2012 primary. Of course, the 2012 primary had a competitive Presidential race on the Republican side, so this may be more of the natural balance in the district.
Also, while turnout was low, when all is said in done, it won't be that low -- there'll be about 58,000 votes cast district-wide. In the 2009 special primary won by now IL-05 Rep. Mike Quigley to replace Rahm Emanuel, about 60,000 votes were cast. The old IL-05 was about 10% less Democratic than this incarnation of IL-02, though.