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Depeche Mode -- "Halo"

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Comment Preferences

  •  Weekend Tune (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, HoosierD42, James Allen

    Since I still love the Black Keys!

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

    by lordpet8 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 04:37:46 PM PST

    •  They are amazing. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, lordpet8

      Their performance(s) at the Grammys were great.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 04:57:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  like (0+ / 0-)

      that they did the album version of little black submarines.  I really like the second verse that's cut out of the radio version.  Without it the song just isn't the same for me.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 09:46:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Anyone know when the NYC filing deadline is? (0+ / 0-)

    I can't find it anywhere online.

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 04:39:03 PM PST

  •  NV-Muni this year... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, Gygaxian

    And more rumblings on NV-03 next year. It's always fun here in Nevada!

  •  remember everyone (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, kleinburger, gabjoh, OGGoldy

    don't embed Youtube this week!

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

    by jncca on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 04:44:47 PM PST

  •  Battleground Texas (7+ / 0-)

    A new article on Texas's potential. Not sure if it got any mention in today's thread, but I definitely think we should talk about this.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 05:07:00 PM PST

  •  Everyone doing well? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext

    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

    by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 05:16:48 PM PST

  •  Tea Party will challenge in Kansas... (7+ / 0-)

    and it could get interesting.   Pat Roberts, senator from Kansas has tried his damnedest to move far enough to the right to keep the loons in check, but it apparently isn't working.

    It's becoming the common mantra that he is going to face a challenger from the right in the primaries, and things might get interesting.  

    I don't know if it leaves room for a (D) in the winter but a Tea Party candidate in Kansas would be slightly to the right of Atilla the Hun, and would make Akin look enlightened.

    I have my popcorn at the ready.

    Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

    by Chris Reeves on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 05:18:54 PM PST

    •  Are there any Democrats in Kansas... (4+ / 0-)

      ...who can win a statewide race these days? It's sad to see that the Breadbasket of American has been taken over by right-wing bozos like Sam Brownback, Kris Kobach, Jerry Moran, Tim Huelskamp, and their allies.

      Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

      by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 05:35:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  In a senate race, I don't know (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I have an eye on a few I think could win the Governorship, and some house races.. but Senate is a whole different ball of wax because of District 1.   It would take a nominee who would implode, or an incredibly good democratic nominee.

        Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

        by Chris Reeves on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 05:37:11 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Who is on your list? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tmservo433, MichaelNY

          When I think of Kansas Dems, I basically only come up with Sebelius (who's not leaving HHS), Dennis Moore, and Nancy Boyda (who I would probably rather see take out or at least take on Lynn Jenkins).  

          •  Some names no know (4+ / 0-)

            Paul Davis, from Lawrence, KS should be on everyone's mind as a potential contender for District 2.  

            He's bright, he's incredibly articulate, he's telegenic, and he represents the progressive cause incredibly well.  Period.
            https://www.facebook.com/...

            I really wish Kelly Kultala could put on a big run.  She's smart, witty and she has a serious record of getting things done.  Ousting a "Democrat in Name Only" in a primary, Kultala has been a force in Wyandotte county from school board on up.   She was a candidate for Lt. Governor last time around, and I'm hoping she seriously considers thoughts of running for a bigger seat somewhere down the road.

            I have said repeatedly here, though, that if Paul Davis runs for anything above his seat, I am going to be a relentless fundraiser, and it's a campaign I will latch onto tight.  Because that one has potential star power.

            Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

            by Chris Reeves on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 06:25:26 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  If he represents the progressive cause well (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, sacman701

              He's DOA in District 2.

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

              by jncca on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 07:03:01 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  dont be so sure (0+ / 0-)

                Crawford county flipped state seats Democratic, Lawrence is traditionally democratic.  And, with the right push a solid run in Louisburg, Paola would swing that district.  With mental health the #1 employer there, and the acts of Kansas on those issues he could make a real run at Lynn Jenkins.  That's how boyda won, and her case was nowhere as assured

                Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

                by Chris Reeves on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 07:08:13 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Boyda wasn't a progressive (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  A Romney district won't elect a progressive to the House for more than one term.  Come to think of it, Boyda couldn't even hold on in 2008.

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                  by jncca on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:21:31 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I understand where you are coming from but.. (3+ / 0-)

                    The reality is that even if you don't win, every house district deserves to be contested.  And part of that informs voters of alternatives.   Boyda wasn't a progressive.  She also wasn't a great campaigner.   The district is difficult, there is no denying that.

                    But as older voters die off (which is just natural) if you want to start making changes you have to start winning districts that have traditionally been the other guy's backyard.  

                    Right now, population growth in that district has primarily focused around the mental health industry (Louisburg & Paola) and Douglas County (Lawrence).   In the past four years, you've bumped up a candidate in Crawford county and you've got more youth in that county voting Democrat.

                    There is no denying it is a longshot to win.   But here's your advantage: Lynn Jenkins is a HORRIBLE campaigner.   She has a poor message and she's prone to gaffes.   Put some pressure on her to make her run.   If you can pull better then the average in Crawford County, Win Douglas county convincingly then you're going to need to make a dent in the 69HWY Corridor.  

                    "They can't hold it for more then a cycle".   Maybe true.   But I would take a win for a cycle to see if you can build something rather then leave it uncontested again

                    Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

                    by Chris Reeves on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:26:51 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  You're not understanding my point (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      tmservo433, MichaelNY, gabjoh

                      A Blue Dog could potentially win and hold the seat.  A progressive can't.  Progressives don't win and hold Romney seats.

                      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                      politicohen.com
                      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                      by jncca on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:33:22 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I get that point. (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        stevenaxelrod

                        And if we were talking District1, I would lamentingly go along with it.    But District 2's configuration isn't quite as stark as we think.  

                        Frankly, in 2012 Democrats ran no one... really.  Tobias Schlingensiepen had absolutely no national and really no local support.  Neither Romney nor Obama ever appeared here, and you're right, this is a blood red state.

                        But, I tend to believe the only way we're going to change that is start changing the tone.   District 2 now encompasses 4 of the major universities in Kansas:  K-State, KU, Pittsburg State, Washburn.   Turnout in many of those areas can spin.  

                        Would it be an uphill fight?  Yes.
                        Would you lose?  Probably.

                        But I'd rather throw in money and resources to a candidate that runs on issues I give a damn about then nobody.

                        Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

                        by Chris Reeves on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:45:57 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  So the only way to win a state full of (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY, skibum59

                          conservatives is to be liberal?  That makes zero sense.

                          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                          politicohen.com
                          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                          by jncca on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:47:21 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  No. (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            nonsensoleum, stevenaxelrod, MykeD

                            First, you're making a big assertion that "it's a state full of conservatives"

                            Here's the reality.  In District 2 which she won in the last election, there were a total of 293,000 votes.  

                            Lynn won by 50k votes - a pretty sizable margin.

                            But here's the thing.  In District 2, as of last census, there are more then 430,000 estimated eligible voters.   So, what's going on?  Lots of people stay home, which is always true.

                            In off elections, it's even more true.   Kansas is going through a moment where traditional republicans are facing tea party challengers, conservatives are being challenged on the right, and conservatives are unhappy with who they have.

                            Lynn Jenkins is one of those.   Meanwhile, satisfaction level with some candidates is very high.  

                            I don't think you could win District 1 with this strategy... then again, District 1 hasn't had a challenger AT ALL in a while.  But if you could get someone who actually had money and resources and put a serious challenge into Douglas county, Leavenworth, Paola, Louisburg, Crawford & Cherokee counties where Democrats have prevailed things can be shifted.

                            Could you hold it down?  I don't know.   But do you have any "blue dog" democrat that can even sniff interest?   College students completely stayed home and voting was absolutely depressed in Douglas County, Crawford and Cherokee where a candidate will need to show up if a Democrat is going to win.

                            So, you need to get someone who can engender some excitement.   That's the reality.  And yes, you'll need unsatisfied republicans to split stuff up.

                            But you're going to find a lot more people interested in donating and fighting for a candidate they want instead of running another minister from Topeka who's perceived of as just slightly less conservative then what you have.

                            Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

                            by Chris Reeves on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:57:16 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  I really (0+ / 0-)

                            appreciate your enthusiasm. Being from Nebraska I know the difficulty of getting a Progressive elected. Keep your resilience! It is people like you that will move the Progressive cause in the right direction.

          •  Dennis Moore (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, skibum59

            has a form of Alzheimer's or a similar degenerative brain disorder.  So he's definitely done with politics.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

            by jncca on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 07:02:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Kansas hasn't elected a dem senator since before (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        any of us (or 99 percent) were born

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 07:09:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Would Huelskamp be interested? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tmservo433, MichaelNY

      He isn't in Boehner's good graces and comes from the same district Roberts did, so he could undercut Roberts's bases some.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 05:35:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI-DemChair (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    I don't think I've ever seen this in a race for a state or national Democratic party chair, but incumbent Michigan Democratic Party chairman Mark Brewer is now resorting to issuing mailers attacking his challenger, Lon Johnson.

    Additionally, anti-Johnson Facebook and Twitter pages have sprung up as well.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 05:29:52 PM PST

  •  CA- 16th Senate Special... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV

    D Senator just quit today and took a job with Chevron as Head of CA gov't affairs..

  •  I started watching House of Cards on netflix (4+ / 0-)

    and yes, it is definitely worth watching. If you loved the politicking aspect of the West Wing but want to see something with the HBO penchant for realism (which in this case is conniving, rauncnhy, and profanity laced as always) you will enjoy this show. I'm about halfway through the season and so far it doesn't have the sort of glaring inaccurate elements that the west wing did as far as electoral matters are concerned (GA-04 being Republican, their electoral maps, etc). So basically if you liked the west wing and aren't a total prude (though there isn't a ton of the characteristic HBO nudity) then you should definitely enjoy watching it.

  •  Voting Rights Act (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Sadly, I'm going to predict that Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, which requires that jurisdictions with a history of discriminating against voters, most of which, but not all of them, are located in the South, to obtain preclearance before making changes to election laws and procedures, will be struck down by the Supreme Court of the United States, on equal protection grounds.

    Link to TPM article on the SCOTUS case on the VRA

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 05:55:38 PM PST

    •  Does this impact redistricting at all? (0+ / 0-)

      I personally don't think that getting rid of the VRA requirements for minority districts would be so bad.  It just packs in democratic voters into a defacto republican gerrymander.

      Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

      by Daman09 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 05:58:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Some changes I would make to the VRA (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        atdnext

        I'd implement district compactness requirements and national preclearance. Additionally, I'd require that states adopt an independent redistricting process that is a hybrid of the current Iowa and California systems, in which a Iowa-style non-partisan agency refers several model maps for congressional and state legislative districts to a California-style independent commission, which would have to adopt one of the model maps for congressional districts and one of the model maps for the districts of each house of the state legislature and then would be allowed to make changes to the maps and adopt final maps.

        Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

        by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 06:06:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Feds can't constitutionally require... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          ...that state legislatures implement independent redistricting without a constitutional amendment!

          Forgot about that...

          Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

          by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 06:09:29 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  That's a hybrid of California & Washington (3+ / 0-)

          Iowa does not allow changes to the districts. Iowa has a non-partisan commission that draws a first set of maps, sends it to the legislature for an up or down vote. If a down vote is cast, a second set is sent and corresponding vote cast. If a down vote happens for that set, the third draft becomes law without the legislature's input.

          California has a citizen's commission which draws and finalizes the map with no official input from the legislature.

          Washington has a partisan commission whereby the final map can be tweaked at the margins, but not the substantial product, by the legislature.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 06:12:58 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  No (8+ / 0-)

        Section 2 will still be in effect, so people can bring cases against a state about this and all the jurisprudence remains in effect if 5 gets struck down.

        It's just that southern maps would not have to be pre-cleared in order to go into effect.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 06:07:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, that's what I've been saying (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, MichaelNY, LordMike, James Allen

          It makes it harder to nip some things in the bud, but the lawsuits and stuff can carry on.  The DOJ has been conservative in its use of preclearance, but has used it in some things like voter ID.

          "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

          by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 06:13:37 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  My personal semi-informed opinion (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          is that Section 5 will survive but the 1972 formulas are going to be struck down. Meaning the law will need to be rewritten to pass muster.
          Which in and of it self will cause a major sea change in politics in the south and more particularly in the west because of the language minorities.  

    •  Roberts has said some troubling things... (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, BeloitDem, askew, MichaelNY

      About Section 5 in the past, but hopefully stare decisis will make him and some of his colleagues think twice about striking it down... Well, that and the fact that VRA has constantly been renewed by overwhelming bipartisan margins.

  •  Very interested in (0+ / 0-)

    NJ-Sen
    ME-Gov
    MD-Gov (I would like some poll)
    MA-Gov

    I want the strongest people running here but still the recruitment process is not enough advanced.

    All these races should be a victory in the end of the cycle.

    •  Do Republicans have anybody in Maryland... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin, atdnext, skibum59

      ...who can win statewide? I don't even think Michael Steele can win a statewide race in Maryland, but he'd be the strongest potential Republican candidate in the 2014 MD-Gov race.

      Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

      by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 06:40:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No (6+ / 0-)

        He can't win, either, based on his previous results and the state's lean. It would have to be a huge Republican wave for him to win.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 06:47:18 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  He wouldn't be the strongest Republican (0+ / 0-)

        He's an absolute joke!  

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 07:04:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think the strongest republican would be (0+ / 0-)

        R Ehrlich, still.

        I hope this race give not troubles, but for it need now a little of attention, not very much. It is only about to assure the strongest candidate running.

      •  Dr. Ben Carson (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Republicans have drooled all over themselves since his speech at the Prayer Breakfast but I highly doubt he'd run.

        •  I haven't seen much drooling. (0+ / 0-)

          Then again, I don't blog-hop all that much.

          "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

          by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 11:34:40 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  His speech was passed around (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, MichaelNY

            quite a bit with various titles about how Dr. Carson schooled Obama on health reform and should be our next President or whatever but it never really made it beyond from the right-wing echo chamber.  I only know because I tried tracking it down to see what his big idea was (some sort of variation on health savings accounts) and I was only finding mentions of it on conservative sites.  

            I don't think he would do well as a candidate in Maryland, nor do I think he would have any interest in running for something.  

      •  They'd need some kind of outsider (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, LordMike, atdnext

        like a moderate businessman type. Nobody in the legislature would have a chance, and their one prominent county-level person, Anne Arundel County Executive John Leopold, got into a bunch of trouble recently and was suspended from office.

      •  Some being mentioned include (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, atdnext

        David Craig, the Harford County executive and previously a state legislator; Dan Bongino, who ran for US Senate last year; Blaine Young, a Frederick County commissioner; and Larry Hogan, who was Ehrlich's appointments secretary (and whose father was a congressman and then Prince George's County executive, back when that county was more competitive.)  Ehrlich won't run again; Steele hasn't been mentioned as a candidate and at this point probably can't win a statewide election (if he ever could.)

        None of them seems to have much of a chance of winning, though Craig's resume seems credible enough to offer a serious alternative if something goes very wrong on the Democratic side.  A Blaine Young run would at least be entertaining, but probably not in ways the GOP would like.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 09:37:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Anthony Brown (current LG of Maryland) (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Gygaxian, abgin, atdnext, skibum59

      has not really given any indication of what he'll do, but I think that if he wants the Dem nomination he'll probably get it, and I don't think he would have any kind of serious opposition in the general.  He's an Iraq veteran, and would be only the third African-American elected governor of any state.  In addition, O'Malley's policies have been decently popular in much of the state and he could run on continuing what O'Malley started.  

      •  He is also term limited and (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and I expect him running for Governor. This should be a so safe race.

        I'm a little surprised that no-one US House representative be interested in this office, given that if B Mikulski would retire in 2016, M O'Malley seems the clear frontrunner for the seat.

        •  None of the MD House Dems (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          atdnext, MichaelNY

          seems to be that interested in a move from a legislative to an executive position.  I do think you're right that if Mikulski retires (she'd be 80 on Election Day 2016), O'Malley would have a good shot at the seat, but he would have to decide early on not to run for President.  If he does run for Pres, and Mikulski retires, I think someone like Donna Edwards would be a frontrunner for that Senate seat.  

          •  2016 the year of B Mikulski and SHoyer retirement? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            atdnext, MichaelNY

            2016 can be a good year for a retirement of B Mikulski and S Hoyer. Sometimes it is easier to do the generational changes and this seems one.

            I doubt that M O'Malley bid if H Clinton or J Biden run. I would expect very few candidates in the Democratic primary in the case of the frontrunners run.

            But even running, habitually the bids for president are decided a lot before than other races. In the case of an unsuccesful bid, the majority of the failed candidates will be out of the race by January-February of 2016, with enough time for a senate bid.

            Then, being a US House Representative I would not count very much with the chance of a senate bid in 2016, and I would look more to MD-Gov 2014.

            MD-Gov 2014 can be the race that decide the next in line looking at the replacement of B Cardin in Maryland. I think it is a very important and open race for the state.

            •  I think 2016 is an either/or for O'Malley (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              atdnext, MichaelNY

              If Clinton runs, you're probably right that he sits out and maybe looks at the Senate race.  The filing deadline is in early January though, so if he runs for Pres at all he would have to drop out around Iowa at the latest, with his signatures already ready, and there would definitely be at least one or two top tier candidates already in the race at that point.  Maybe he runs in 2018...Cardin will be 73 and it's a tossup as to what he'll do.  

              I don't disagree that the 2014 Gov race is important, but as of yet there is not much interest in it from serious candidates.  Blaine Young counts as a serious candidate only in the sense that it would be seriously funny to watch him lose by 30 points after the way he and his cronies have been screwing over Frederick County.  

              •  As example J Biden does both in 2008 (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I see not very difficult to do it, even with an early filing deadline. Also the money would not be a trouble, and surely he would raise his profile in his own state with a Presidential bid. But still I see not as clear that he runs for President. In his place I would look seriously at the chance of a senate bid.

                I was telling about the 2014 elected governor as first in line for a replacement of B Cardin because the new governor would be in a very good situation looking at the following elections for B Cardin's seat, in 2018 and 2024 (after one or the two terms as governor). It would be a so natural way being a succesful governor.

                •  You make some good points but (3+ / 0-)

                  Joe Biden was running for reelection to a seat he had held for six terms, not trying to run for two open seats at once.  Also, Delaware has its Senate primary separately in late summer (and has a July filing deadline), but Maryland's would be in the spring at the same time as its Presidential primary.  If it truly is an open seat, other Maryland Dems won't be waiting around for O'Malley, and he'll have some ground to make up if he tries to jump in after dropping out of the Presidential (if he runs at all...I agree with you that it's far from a foregone conclusion).  

                  •  In May only the winner is habitually running still (0+ / 0-)

                    Or maybe also the second, but this is so rare. Habitually all the no-winners are out months before.

                    My point is that there is a bigger chance that M O'Malley run not, because I think H Clinton and/or J Biden will likely run. One of them or both. I think the rest of potential candidates have very little room to run.

                    I think to run vs H Clinton is very difficult, because of her political strenght. She has all for run. She has improved a lot her profile since 2008 as a competent high level officer and as a loyal Democrat. She also can run as a person that is out of the Obama's Cabinet. It is very difficult for a Democrat to run vs her.

                    Also I think J Biden is now a lot stronger than in 2008. He will be the face of the Obama's cabinet in the race, and also will be very difficult for the rest of candidates to run vs J Biden, because that likely mean to run against the job of the Obama's government. This will be really difficult for potential candidates from blue states like M O'Malley.

                    The third space in the primary can be someone from the red states running to the right of both and maybe running against the Obama's cabinet. And this position will be very weak if there are not bigg surprises. Who can do it? Not M O'Malley.

                    Then I think the chance of see M O'Malley running is so low.

                    I would perfectly see these potential scenarios for the primary:

                    1. Both frontrunners in:

                    H Clinton
                    J Biden
                    J Cooper type candidate

                    2. H Clinton run not:

                    J Biden
                    E Bayh, M Schweitzer or someone else from the red states.

                    3. J Biden out (very unlikely for me):

                    H Clinton
                    E Warren, M O'Malley or someone else from the bluest states.

                    4. H Clinton and J Biden out (very unlikely for me):

                    Open race with all the rest in.

      •  He will have some competition (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Doug Gansler, Attorney General of Maryland
        Heather Mizeur, state Delegate
        Kenneth Ulman, Howard County Executive

        •  That's the generally accepted/Wikipedia list (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Gansler would probably be Brown's main competition, but Brown would likely start with O'Malley's endorsement.  Mizeur is a very interesting figure who I think could a force in Maryland politics in the future, but she doesn't have much name recognition comparitively for 2014.  Were she to win, she would be the first openly LGBT person elected governor of any state.  I don't know anything about Kenneth Ulman.  

  •  My fav Depeche Mode song (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    Any who plays the FIFA video game series, there's a remix on the '06 World Cup game by Jacques Lu Cont.

    NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 06:33:32 PM PST

  •  From Comment on Kentucky tonight (5+ / 0-)

    Sen. Robert Stivers (R-Manchester) revealed that he used Mitch McConnell as a resource on the bill pushed by Sec. of State Allison Lundergan Grimes (D-Lexington) to allow overseas military personnel to vote by e-mail and fax, where it was watered down to allow the ballots to be sent that way, but that they must be mailed back. McConnell wanted to deny Grimes a victory, so he must be worried about her. Gov. Beshear also gave Ashley Judd a brush off about their meeting, saying he would meet with any potential candidate.

    Also, Speaker Greg Stumbo (D-Prestonburg) has said the House redistricting plan may come out on Wednesday (or not). The Senate wants to push things off until 2014. There is also talk that they will not pass a clean bill. The Senate may try to attach pension reform to the redistricting bill. With a 24-14 majority, the Senate Republicans seem to not be so worried about if it goes to Court. If no bill is passed, one of two things will happen: (1) one of the two Franklin Circuit Judges, Thomas Wingate or Phillip Shepherd will hold a trial and release a map; or (2) the State Supreme Court will take jurisdiction and draw their own plan. Shepherd was the judge that kicked out the last map, but should be noted that both judges in Franklin County are Democrats (though it is a non-partisan office). 5 of the 7 Supreme Court justices are Democrats (also non-partisan).

    The two incumbents to be matched up under the house bill will be Rep. Rocky Adkins (D-Sandy Hook) and Jill York (R-Grayson); and Rep. John Will Stacy (D-West Liberty) and Toby Herald (R-Beattyville). Each would favor Democrats strongly. There is also continued talk about pairing Rep. Jim DeCesare (R-Rockfield) and Michael Merideth (R-Brownsville). While not mentioned, I see it very likely Rep. Ben Waide (R-Madisonville) and Myron Dossett (R-Pembroke) will be paired in Western Kentucky, which has had sluggish population growth.

    On a lighter note, Rep. Fitz Steele (D-Hazard) is pushing forward a bill to make it easier to hunt coyotes. Hunters could use spotlights and night vision goggles.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 07:08:27 PM PST

    •  How is the relationship (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      between Beshear and Lundergan Grimes?

      •  Not that great (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, lordpet8, atdnext, skibum59

        She ran in a primary and defeated his handpicked candidate for Secretary of State in 2011. Beshear is not that tight with the top levels of the state party in Kentucky that much anyway though.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 07:30:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Do you think it likely (0+ / 0-)

      that they pass redistricting like last time where they approve the other's gerrymander?  Or that even if Republicans try to sneak some policy in there that it will get passed anyway?  This is stupid and should be resolved ASAP.

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 07:21:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Senate has the House by the your know what (0+ / 0-)

        and they appear to want to get something out of it.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 07:30:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  But you think it will get done alright? (0+ / 0-)

          with neither the Senate or House maps being tampered with by the other chamber?  Is the pension reform thing that bad or is it a tolerable pill to swallow to get this all done with?

          "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

          by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 07:34:20 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Kentucky has a really badly funded pension system (0+ / 0-)

            the GOP wants to turn it into a 401k type system, which Dems have resisted. From the GOP perspective, they have a strong majority in the Senate, so they feel they have little to lose by pushing the issue.

            "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

            by SouthernINDem on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 07:39:00 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Ah, at least he'll get to speak with her (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Also, what else did they say about the Senate race?  If Grimes runs, she can use Stivers' admission against McConnell.

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 07:22:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Doesn't Kentucky have some form of line item veto? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      How does that apply if at all to redistricting and would it allow Beshear to veto the pension part if they added it?

      •  Only if (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        the legislature is out of session can he line item veto.  As to redistricting, Republicans will no doubt again require that their map and the House map be tied together by an anti-severability clause to prevent Beshear from signing only the House map and nixing the Senate map.

        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

        by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 12:43:03 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  NJ-gay marriage (6+ / 0-)

    Dems to try for an override of Christie's gay marriage veto by the end of the term: http://www.politickernj.com/...

    they're going to try after primary season, which is smart if they want Republican votes. worth noting: after this year, senators aren't up again until 2017, so there will be some time for any conservative anger against Yes voters to subside.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 07:24:07 PM PST

    •  If it fails to override (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      will they let it go to ballot?  What about the minimum wage increase?

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 07:25:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I wonder if Christie will push behind the scenes.. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GloFish, LordMike, MichaelNY, gabjoh

        to maybe get his veto overridden.  That way he'd be pure to the 2016 primary voters as he vetoed it, but it happens so it stops being an issue he can be attacked over.  

        Either way it's going to be a pretty big issue come June, and if it's not overridden, wouldn't the pressure go back on Christie for vetoing it in the first place?

        Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and potential for a pipeline leak ecological disaster.

        by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 07:31:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  FL-GOV and Medicaid expansion (3+ / 0-)

    I think Scott gets a primary challenge. Given his low approvals overall, I imagine there wasnt a tremendous amount of strong support for him the GOP base. But agreeing to the Medicaid expansion is seen as a betrayal. Scott campaigned strongly against the law in 2010, and FL had taken a lead role in opposing the law(ironically, FL led the states lawsuit under AG Bill McCollum, the man Scott defeated in 2010).

    Scott has a lot of money, but the GOP has a good bench in FL. And, the GOP might have better chance of winning hold this seat with a nominee other than Scott.

    •  Economy is going to save Kasich, Scott, Walker (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      Snyder and probably even Corbett.  

      Good news of course is it means Obama will be popular in all these states as well, and come 2016 it will be seen as a Democratic economy nationally.  

      Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and potential for a pipeline leak ecological disaster.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:21:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Weak opponents will save them if anything... (9+ / 0-)

        ...but, a decent economy isn't going to remove the tarnish of some of the stuff that they did.  Walker is an exception, since he has some sort of mesmerizing effect on the electorate.  Kasich will be saved by the repeal of SB5 and his ability to shut his mouth since then.  Corbett is in trouble no matter what, because of Penn State.  Scott is in trouble, too, 'cos he's just Scott.  Snyder is in big trouble, but may be saved by the incompetence of the MI Democratic party.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:24:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree. (6+ / 0-)

          With Corbett, we could beat him with Schwarz or McCord.  With Scott, we just need a solid candidate with sturdy finances.  With Snyder, we need someone who can pick apart his faults and how he's a follower, not a leader.

          "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

          by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:27:28 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Walker's mesmerizing effect described (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          Basically, Wisconsin's mainstream media, for the most part, act as sternographers for Walker and his allies in the state legislature. Scott Walker's spokesman, Cullen Werwie, has actually given official Walker/GOP talking points to media outlets in Wisconsin in the past, and may still be doing so.

          Think of being an opposition candidate to Hugo Chavez in a Venezuelan presidential election, and that gives you a general idea of how much of an uphill battle it would be for any Democratic candidate to defeat Scott Walker. Ron Kind would probably be the strongest opponent to Walker, but he'd need a clown car to win a statewide Democratic primary.

          Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

          by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:44:29 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I almost want to hide rate you for comparing (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            wwmiv, JDJase, CF of Aus, skibum59

            Scott Walker to a semi-dictator.  You seriously have no shame.

            Also, isn't it basically the job of a politician's staff to give their talking points to the media? I'm pretty sure everyone does that.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

            by jncca on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:54:40 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Probably not so much with (4+ / 0-)

        Scott, Snyder, and Corbett since they seem to be having issues lately.

        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

        by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:25:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I agree with the others (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, LordMike, abgin, askew, James Allen

        Snyder, Corbett, and Scott have issues beyond the economy.

        I think the economy has improved significantly in all of those  states over the last two years, but Scott's approvals are still bad, and approvals for Snyder and Corbett ave slipped in recent weeks.  

        But certainly, if we continue to have growth going into next year, then I think the dynamics might change in their favor. Definitely something to watch.

      •  Ratings (7+ / 0-)

        Kasich: Tilt R
        Walker: Lean R
        Scott: Tilt D
        Snyder: Tilt D
        Corbett: Tilt D

        None will be easy, but all are winnable, and I wouldn't be surprised if we pick up 4 out of 5.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:34:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Mine would look a little different - (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY

          Kasich and Walker are lean GOP, Snyder is tilt GOP, Scott is tilt GOP because of his money and he is showing he knows he needs to move hard to the center.  Corbett is probably tilt Dem IMO right now - I think Schwartz could pummel him with the "she can just close her eyes" remark from the forced ultrasound presser, and he could even pick up a primary challenge if he tries to move to the center.  Scott can scare off any primary challenge with his self-funding capabilities.  

          Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and potential for a pipeline leak ecological disaster.

          by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:44:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I, too, have some disagreements (6+ / 0-)

          Kasich: Lean R
          Walker: Likely R
          Scott: Tilt D
          Snyder Tilt D
          Corbett: Tilt D

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:59:41 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Same here (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I agree with those ratings, but people are forgetting Rhode Island and Maine. I say both of them Tilt/Lean D

            NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

            by BKGyptian89 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 09:02:52 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I was thinking about including those (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              But the potential for three candidates makes those really hard to rate at this point. I'm holding off until we have a clearer picture of who is running and which parties they're members of.

              I'd also include Nevada and New Mexico, as potentially vulnerable "races to watch" but at the moment as safely Republican.

              South Carolina is probably likely Republican, but could be lean at various points throughout the cycle.

              Arizona and Illinois are complex races which depend on the candidates.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 09:07:14 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Yeah (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, LordMike

                Gubernatorial races are even less developed than those for US Senate. Right now MI, PA, FL, RI and ME clearly look the best opportunities but incumbents could well recover or candidate recruitment might screw things up.

                I agree Republicans start with a clear advantage in WI, OH and SC but incumbent job approval could yet go south in any or all. As always, anybody making firm pronouncements at this point are being extremely premature.

                "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                by conspiracy on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 03:21:16 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  In my opinion (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  If we in practice hold the seat, we can't really pick it up...

                  (referring to RI here, where there is a decent chance that Chafee better represents national democratic ideals than an RI Democratic candidate...)

                  Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

                  by R30A on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 05:29:26 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

          •  Will Corbett make it out of the primary? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, MichaelNY

            vs. Corbett might only be tilting D, but I think it's more likely we get to face a damaged Castor, which would be a lot more favorable to us, I think.

            (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

            by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 10:29:15 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Economy could be worse in 6 months (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Sequyestration alone could throw it back into recession.

        www.buonoforgovernor.com

        by Paleo on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 04:50:05 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Evolution of Mom Dancing (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bfen, itskevin

    26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 08:28:09 PM PST

  •  Virginia Lt. Gov (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, atdnext

    Does Daily Kos have a preferred candidate for Va lt. Gov? I like both Ralph Northam and Aneesh Chopra, but since Northam is a state senator if he were to win, he would resign his Senate seat and give Republicans a one-seat majority until a special election for his seat. Would his seat be vulnerable in a Special? Any other thoughts on the race?

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 09:58:33 PM PST

    •  His district is 56% Obama 2008 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, atdnext, DCCyclone

      and probably not much different in 2012 as Obama didn't underperform here.  http://www.vpap.org/...
      Creigh Deeds got 46% here in 2009 and Northam won his 2011 re-election 57-43.

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 10:04:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Aneesh Chopra (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, DCCyclone

      Out of DKE loyalty to our fellow DCCyclone, though Northam is probably more electable.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 10:32:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Electability is a wide-open question (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        The only obvious question on electability is wondering how November voters will react to the name "Aneesh Chopra."  Honestly, I increasingly think no one will care outside the GOP base, so it doesn't matter.  Times have changed.

        Beyond that, it really comes down to coattails from the top if any, combined with the quality of the candidates and campaigns which doesn't reveal any difference as of now.

        Northam is the "establishment" guy because, yes, he's a state Senator and an insider.  Some of the party establishment recruited him specifically because they don't want Chopra.  But they're thinking on this hasn't been revealed to me, nor is the party establishment's acumen at all established to assume their judgement worth anything.  Virginia Dems have made a lot of missteps over the years, a few good individual candidates like Warner and Kaine excepted.v

        I honestly have no idea who will win the primary, and Ben Tribbett at NLS takes the same position early on that there's no frontrunner.  And I honestly don't know who would be "more electable" in November because neither has obviously more appealing qualities than the other to general election voters.  Lieutenant Governor is a real wildcard of an office, it's a largely passive office whose tiebreaking role in the state Senate is the only visible thing, and that doesn't offer a distinction between Chopra and Northam.  So voters in turn are pretty nonchalant in their choice, and the Governor's race can very well decide it absent a compellingly good or bad reputation for a particular candidate.  There's no reputation at all among the contenders in either party for this office, everyone is an unknown, so that's not a factor.  The last time a Lt. Gov. candidate's persona mattered was in 2001, when Kaine won partly because the GOP nominated a hard right Christian home-schooling nutcase who no one liked...basically a Cuccinelli-like figure.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 09:22:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'll probably vote for Chopra in the primary (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, skibum59, DCCyclone

      I don't think there's a big ideological difference between the two, nor do I think there's much difference in electability, but replacing Northam in the Senate if he were to win would be an unnecessary headache. I would expect the Democrats to be favored, but the likely nominee, Del. Lynwood Lewis, would be more conservative than Northam.

    •  I just read Northam nearly bolted to GOP Caucus (6+ / 0-)

      In 2009. That should not be rewarded. Aneesh Chopra for Lieutenant Governor!

      Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

      by interstate73 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 08:37:01 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I would support Chopra only because (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        I'd rather not jeopardize a light blue Senate seat and I doubt his race will hurt his chances as Virginia is changing.  Northam said he now realizes the folly of his planned defection now that he knows what the VA GOP are really like.

        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

        by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 11:32:45 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Where did you read that? n/t (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 01:50:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  His Wikipedia page (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, DCCyclone

          Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

          by interstate73 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 01:54:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  It was well-publicized, from what I recall (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          It was stopped when someone connected with the state GOP tweeted about it before the deal was made, Democrats saw it and intervened with Northam.

          25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 08:58:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I get Northam's e-mails nowadays and... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, Audrid

            ...he is posturing as a liberal, no doubt partly to insulate himself with the base.  His campaign e-mails attack Virginia Republicans incessantly, if his e-mails are all you knew about him you'd be shocked that he was almost a party-switcher.

            I don't know that Aneesh will use that against him.  Aneesh is a very nice guy, not hardball at all......that's one thing that somewhat worries me, I like a candidate willing to knife a Republican when necessary and I'm guessing Aneesh likely is unwilling to allow that from his campaign.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 09:26:00 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  AZ Gov '14: Brewer eligible to run again? (0+ / 0-)

    www.buonoforgovernor.com

    by Paleo on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 05:08:42 AM PST

  •  Question to deeply politically involved Kossacks (6+ / 0-)

    I couldn't fit this on the subject line, but have any of you been involved with a state legislature race? Not just "I volunteered for this one guy once", but being a core part of the campaign staff. What does it take to be more than just a volunteer; what qualifications (I understand it's usually based on prior political experience, but is mostly informal) are needed?

    How would I contact a potential candidate (assuming a first-timer) to offer my services (what little I have)? Should I start on "safe" campaigns, so I can get a feel for it?

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 09:00:40 AM PST

    •  no reason to start on a safe race (5+ / 0-)

      in fact a truly safe race might be run by just a skeleton campaign and won't be serious enough to learn much.

      For low level races traditionally there is little to no experience required, though as campaigns have been more professionalized in recent years this has changed.  One manual on running a local campaign suggests just looking for someone with good organizational skills to be your manager.  For a non-targeted legislative race or a local race that's not in a terribly populous county or city that may still be fine.  Here, though, the Democratic PACs for the state house and state senate do a lot of the hiring for the more serious races, and they want people with some kind of experience.

      Volunteering is the way to start, and I don't think it really matters if they have a shot at winning so long as everyone outside of their campaign doesn't think they are toxic.  Volunteering early on for a campaign is even better.  Good volunteers can get hired.

      On the other hand, I would caution you against working on campaigns professionally.  Until you really establish yourself (if you do), the hours and pay suck, and the jobs you can get may only last a few months.  The last part is why I'm in law school now.  I can't deal with that kind of uncertainty.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 09:21:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'll second most of what... (5+ / 0-)

      James said above, and just add some of what I've learned from personal experience.

      - Are you OK with living a "vagabond lifestyle"? If so, then campaign work is for you!

      - How deeply are you involved with your local party? If you regularly go to clubs, central committees, and other functions, and you build relationships there, you can get a sense of who's running for what.

      - What do you consider your strengths? Are you good at writing & speaking? (You may want communications.) Are you good with making & keeping track of money? (You may want finance.) Are you more of a "people person"? (That's field.) Or are you a great manager? (Well, duh.)

    •  Show up (5+ / 0-)

      Show up, make clear that you want to move up and then prove you can handle the work.

      Definitely don't start on a safe race. Find something competitive or a tough uphill race. You will absolutely learn more. In my experience, most staff will respect a tough beat more than a lay-up on your resume (especially if you aren't a senior-level staffer).

      You don't need a degree or much experience on a lower-level race (but finish your degree before you hit 26, don't realize you need to get out of campaigns and be stuck without a degree). The short hand for no-experience needed jobs in online postings is "Must have a passion for electing Democratic candidates" or something similar.

      Besides looking around for individual candidates, contact your state party or legislative caucuses. These often directly hire staff and in-kind them to targeted campaigns, or at least serve as middle-men who can connect you to campaigns.

      James' warning is correct. Long hours, low pay and regular stretches of unemployment are realities of the profession early on.

      But work on one, try. It's incredibly rewarding.

      IL-10 to IL-07 by way of -09, -17 and -18.

      by GaleForceBurg on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 11:44:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, state legislature. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, Audrid, Gygaxian

      Keeping in my mind that I have no real qualifications (I mean I have a master's degree in a totally unrelated field), this was my experience last year.

      At first I just started off as a volunteer for a challenger to a powerful incumbent in the State House. In Pennsylvania the state house districts are small (201 districts statewide), and campaigns are whatever you throw together. The state party only helps a handful of challengers meaningfully.

      I would not recommend volunteering for an incumbent unless your goal is to end up a staffer at some point in your life (not now, not ever in my life). If you're more from the activist wing, pick a challenging race. Since you're in Utah, that should be no problem.

      Start off canvassing/lit dropping and the usual stuff for the campaign. Then gradually take over new responsibilities (event planning, media communication, strategy, fundraising, etc.). I started off as a volunteer but ended the campaign as the de facto co-campaign manager by taking over more and more responsibilities.

      Probably if I had started earlier I could have found a campaign to manage alone. Here in Pennsylvania it's almost routine for college students (or younger!) to manage the campaigns of state house challengers. So, start early for better results. Also, go to all the local party meetings where the candidates beg for help. You'll be received as a saviour if you walked up to a candidate and basically say "I'd like to do tons of work for you!"

      One thing that had never occured to me before volunteering was the existence of intra-party squabbling. My hometown party chair despises the county chair, and my candidate got no help from the county because he was considered be aligned with my town party chair. Try to avoid getting aligned with a certain faction. In my case, it was fine as long as I was not foolishly vocal about utterly useless factional politics in the party.

      One thing I turned out to be rather good at, was keeping people on task. My poor candidate was constantly bombarded by a million things to do (as it should be), and I helped him prioritize all his work. Assisting in that was was surprisingly appreciated.

      Even though we lost (I was not exactly shocked), I was surprised how rewarding the experience was. The local party knows who I am now. I know for future campaigns what things I want to do in the future and what things less so. Your political savvy increases exponentially simply by osmosis.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 02:41:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  A couple things (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      First and foremost, you have to bust your ass for 10-12 hours a day for free for an election season before you are really going to be considered for a paid position.

      Secondly, be prepared to be negotiable with your lifestyle. You may not always get to sleep in a bed, or get to sleep at all. If you don't live in or near the district you're working for, be prepared to drive a lot. Heck, be prepared to drive a lot regardless because unless you're in an geographically small urban district, you'll need to hit all corners.

      Lastly, politicians that are in safe seats tend to not need campaign staff. A long-tenure state representative in a D+20 district may only have a campaign manager, who has likely been with him/her for a long time. More marginal districts are where all the entry level jobs are.

      •  Well, that idea goes out the window then. (0+ / 0-)

        I can't drive (psychological issue). I suppose that if I begin living in Salt Lake City (one of my plans for the future regardless of politics), I could get away  not driving, since it's bike and walk-friendly, but that would hamper any plans of working for a non-safe Democratic candidate (since most of Salt Lake City is safe Democratic).

        I guess I could scout out for a potential challenger to one of the safe Democrats (though I can't imagine replacing any of the SLC Dems; they're all great and progressive-minded), but I don't see the point in that. I suppose booting out freshman Brian Shiozawa would work, since he holds a Salt Lake City senate seat while a (not that moderate) Republican. Possibly Todd Weiler as well; he was the replacement for Dan Lilenquist, the doomed primary opponent to Orrin Hatch. I could definitely see myself working on a Dem campaign to oust both of those guys.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 08:30:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'd differ a little from the rest in noting (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv, James Allen, gabjoh

      that it's actually  not all that difficult to get hired as a field organizer for a large field organization such as a coordinated campaign or Presidential campaign. Most the people I worked with when I was an FO were straight out of college and had never worked in field before. I would seek out a coordinated campaign in a largeish state with a competitive election if you're looking for an FO job.

      Obviously non-field jobs are much more difficult to get. For a job in communications, finance etc. you're probably best off finding a competitive state legislative race and hanging around until they hire you :). After you get experience you can move up the chain.

      Finally, I'd also echo the sentiment that campaign work is incredibly taxing and often unpleasant. While that means that most (like me) only do it for one cycle, the upside is that you can move up VERY quickly if you stick around. The person who was running the entire state's field operation where I was in 2008 was well shy of 30 and my understanding is that this is pretty typical.

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 11:19:53 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed w/ all of this (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        But I'd also like to emphasize that if you're working in field - not so much for finance or communications (or even some really bad manager positions) - that your days are going to be 10-12 and often more like 14-16 hour days for a very competitive race.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 01:38:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  WATN (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, MichaelNY

    Todd Platts running for County Judge (York County, Common Pleas): http://www.yorkdispatch.com/...

    Since judical candidates can crossfile, Platts will be running in the D primary along with the R primary

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 09:47:56 AM PST

  •  KY-Senate Redistricting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    It is possible to eliminate Sen. Albert Robinson (R-London), and place his seat in a GOP leaning northern KY seat. The only problem would be he would be paired with Sen. Robert Stivers (R-Manchester), but given Robinson had a tough race in a seat that voted nearly 80% for Romney, he would likely easily get rid of Robinson, who the GOP never wanted back in the Senate. Also, Sen. Brandon Smith (R-Hazard) gets a much safer seat, but the other eastern KY Dems get good seats, but does give the GOP a new seat by eliminating a seat in Jefferson County, which is moved to Bullitt/Nelson, and makes Sen. Perry Clark (D-Louisville) seat much more GOP.
     photo EasternKYSenate_zps446e3548.jpg

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 10:13:56 AM PST

    •  Clark would be an interesting target (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      in all honesty, Clark is one of the worst Dems around, purely because Perry Clark is a LaRouchie who called on the President to resign and compared the President to Hitler, but somehow none of the local Dems have had the time or interest to send him packing.

      The worst part of that scenario is that Clark would still be in the Senate until 2016

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 11:15:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Perry Clark (0+ / 0-)

        is a combo of Huey Long and Alex Jones.  

        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

        by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 11:29:58 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  They may alter his district number to (0+ / 0-)

        force him to run in 2014 or give up his seat in 2016.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 01:51:42 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  2013 Italian Election (6+ / 0-)

    Tomorrow and Monday, the 2013 Italian elections will be held and I'm glad to say my vote has already been sent for it :). Pier Luigi Bersani (the only major candidate of the Left) is expected to beat Berlusconi (of the Right) to become the new Prime Minister. Other candidates include current PM Mario Monti (the Center) and anti-establishlement candidate Beppe Grillo. Bersani has been leading in the polls for some time now but after spending millions of his own in the past few weeks Berlusconi has closed Bersani's lead in half. Most expect Bersani to be the leader in votes counted by the end of the election but the question will be, will it be enough to have a governing majority?

  •  What were the largest US cities to vote Romney (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    1. Phoenix?
    2. Jacksonville?
    3. Fort Worth?
    4. Oklahoma City
    5. Mesa?
    6. Virginia Beach
    7. Colorado Springs
    8. Tulsa?
    9. Wichita
    10. Arlington, TX?

    Question marks because I'm not sure how they voted.

    •  Phoenix probably voted Obama. (7+ / 0-)

      Maricopa County has a number of large red suburbs.

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 11:26:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Like the "suburb" of Mesa. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, BeloitDem, skibum59

        (From Wiki:)

        The city is home to 439,041 as of 2010, reported by the Census Bureau, making its population larger than more recognizable cities such as Atlanta, Miami, Minneapolis, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Tulsa, Wichita, and Cleveland

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at [http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com Xenocrypt's Site].

        by Xenocrypt on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 12:40:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Jacksonville is the biggest to vote for Romney (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, BeloitDem, jncca, MichaelNY

      Unless Phoenix voted for Romney.

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 11:39:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Jackonville also voted 55% for Bill Nelson (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

        by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 11:48:05 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Are you sure about Jacksonville then (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          If Nelson did two points better in Jacksonville than Duval County, it looks like Jacksonville would have voted for Obama (Obama got 47.67% of the vote in Duval County)

          •  I goofed up, Nelson got a little <53% in Jax (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY

            Jax is 99% of Duval County. There's two marginal communities that are unincorporated, but not enough to move the numbers.  I mixed up his Duval County numbers with his statewide (which were 55%) numbers.

            "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

            by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 12:38:50 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Still love seeing how much Nelson romped: (7+ / 0-)

              http://uselectionatlas.org/...
              Remember how we were relieved when Connie Mack initially passed on the race and how nervous some were when he jumped in?

              "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

              by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 12:45:14 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Correction, 95% of Duval County's pop. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              is in Jacksonville.  The unincorporated communities appear to be red so Nelson probably got 53% in the city proper.

              "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

              by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 01:01:45 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Jax Beach is very red (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, KingofSpades

                But still probably not enough votes there to make a big difference between Jacksonville and Duval County.

              •  Correct. (4+ / 0-)

                Jacksonville proper cast 94% of the votes in Duval County. Obama lost the city 188,070 to Romney's 195,274 (48.7 to 50.5), while Nelson won 53.5 to 43.6.

                Baldwin and the beach cities are indeed heavily Republican -- I think that's one of the reasons they didn't get incorporated into the consolidated government to begin with. Romney won those 65-34, while Mack won those 56-41.

                As to largest Romney vote margin from a city, my guesses would be Mesa, AZ (McCain won by 24,000, Romney I'm guessing by something similar), OKC, Lubbock, or Amarillo. (I thought initially it was Provo, Utah. Romney did win 24,000-3,000 there, but I think the margin is less than Mesa's.)

                Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-07.

                by jeffmd on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 02:06:13 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Romney by more in Mesa (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, James Allen, psychicpanda

                  There are quite a few Mormons.

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                  by jncca on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 03:28:09 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  By more, but only slightly. (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    About 30,000 (municipal boundaries don't correspond exactly to precincts).

                    The west side of the city is actually Dem-leaning as it gets increasingly Hispanic.

                    Mesa probably narrowly edges out Lubbock (which is 82% of Lubbock County, which Obama lost by 37,000). It may be Amarillo (which is 80% of Potter and Randall Counties, which Obama lost by a combined 45,000).

                    Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-07.

                    by jeffmd on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 04:21:10 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

            •  Jacksonville is moving in the right direction (4+ / 0-)

              you got to understand especially in presidential elections Jacksonville is usually Republican. Jimmy Carter was the last Democrat to win Duval county in '76. Which is not a surprise given the very close proximity to the Florida-Georgia line, and the fact Carter was a white Southerner. Obama did a tad worse than he did in '08 when McCain won Duval 50-49. Romney won Duval 51-48, cause Obama did well in Duval, it was enough for him to win Florida. Had he lost it by 4-5 points then I think it's likely Romney would had carried the state. Jacksonville is a southern city, and sometime is jokingly dubbed as the second largest city in Georgia. Most people in who live further down in Florida in central, and south Florida, call north Florida either "lower Georgia" which is Big Bend and JAX, or "lower Alabama" the Redneck Riviera part of the Panhandle which is  Pensacola and Panama City.

              The only time Jacksonville usually split their tickets is down ballot with old school white southern Florida Dems like Nelson, Graham, Chiles and Askew. They also did well in the Big Bend part of the panhandle around Tallahassee, cause those are ancestrally Democratic counties. Sink did ok in there as well. Future candidates like in Florida like Kathy Castor, and Pam Iorio would be able to do well in that part of the state. And Crist if he runs again.

              Bill Clinton did very well in Big Bend in both runs, but never won JAX. I say give it a cycle or two, I think by then Jacksonville should go blue.

              NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

              by BKGyptian89 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 03:15:37 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Sounds like Lon Johnson won Mich Dem Chair (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Silvan Elf, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

    away from Brewer.  I don't know much about either dog in this fight, but I'd have opted for change rather than the status quo because there was a disconnect between Dems winning in national statewide races, but losing in-state statewide (taking into account gerrymandered districts etc)

    Is President Obama really nothing more than a 1980's Reagan Democrat in the year 2013?

    by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 01:17:37 PM PST

    •  Being from MI, I've been following this (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, KingofSpades, MetroGnome

      from afar. I consider myself a Dem, but I'm not a paid/voting party member (hence why I wasn't at Cobo Hall in downtown Detroit for the convention insanity today). However, I do know a lot of people who are involved in the party as voting members, both personally and through social media.

      That said, had I been a paying, voting member I can't honestly say I would've been very pleased with either choice. The UAW and the entire Dem Congressional delegation lined up behind Johnson, but there have been a lot of complaints over the years that the UAW especially--while an important part of MI Dem coalition--has held a bit too much sway, to the detriment of Dem candidates and causes. Until this year, they supported Brewer; so I don't know how much 'change' Johnson is going to bring in that respect.

      However, by the same token I've never been much enamored with Brewer, either. He's been the chair for 18 years, so suddenly campaigning as the 'change' candidate rings a bit hollow. In those 18 years, we've had the disconnect you mentioned of Dems winning presidential and senatorial races quite handily, yet the state and local level races have been, with a few exceptions, disastrous. All of that can't be laid at Brewer's feet, of course, but at the same time he's had 18 years to work on the issues and build the MDP into an organization that can win the races we need to win (while working with the various caucuses, county parties, etc.) and he hasn't. Instead, it seems like we drift from one GOP overreach to the next and hope that voters react by voting Dem for state House, etc.

      Can Johnson change any of this, or will it just continue to be business as usual? I honestly don't know. One way or another, though, 2014 is going to be interesting.

      30, m, MI-14. Make Rick Snyder a one-term nerd.

      by Silvan Elf on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 01:49:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Brewer resorted to negative campaigning (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Silvan Elf, MichaelNY

        That was basically Brewer's way of signaling that he was on the losing end of this battle and knew it.

        Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

        by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 01:53:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Who within the Democratic Party (0+ / 0-)

        has been complaining about the power of the UAW, and how do they think that power has redounded to the detriment of the Michigan Democratic Party?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 02:09:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I've seen a lot of it on the comment boards (0+ / 0-)

          Of Michigan-centric Dem blogs, esp. places like Michigan Liberal. Lots of back and forth about the UAW, especially over the last week on the issue of ~1400 applications for MDP membership that were apparently gathered by the UAW. The Brewer folks called shenanigans on at least a few dozen of them for various reasons (claims that they were not Michigan residents, etc.) and that they didn't pay the membership dues within a required time frame on all of them. The general accusation, from what I could tell, was that it was an attempt by the UAW to stack the convention and ensure the chair's race swung to Johnson.

          The wider criticism that I've heard re: the UAW even before the chair's race, mainly during the fall campaign season, was that the UAW was/is behind the scenes pulling all the strings to protect their own interests at the expense of other groups in the party, keeping the party from modernizing, etc. Whether any of it is true or not, I can't say; I'm not involved deeply enough to know one way or the other.

          It was always very vague and no one would ever go 'on the record,' at least until this race for the chair's position came up.

          30, m, MI-14. Make Rick Snyder a one-term nerd.

          by Silvan Elf on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 02:46:30 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't put a lot of credence on comments (0+ / 0-)

            by random people on discussion boards as indicative of what people in positions of influence believe.  Also, process complaints have nothing to do with the question of whether the power of the UAW has been helpful or harmful to the Michigan Democratic Party. Nor do vague claims about "modernizing" the party clarify a thing - does that mean to cast off the workers from the party, or something else entirely?

            The bottom line to me is that labor unions are a core constituency of the Democratic Party, or should be, if it is to ever be an alternative to the party of naked corporate capture of government - especially in Michigan, our newest "Right to Work" state. Having two corporate-captured parties has been harmful to the United States, and especially to the huge majority of the people who are in the working class, rather than the much smaller number of people who make their money purely from speculation or as business executives.

            If the Michigan Democratic Party casts off the workers, all will really be lost.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 03:01:19 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm just telling you (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              What I know/what I've heard. I honestly don't know if there's any truth to it or if it's just an excuse to justify poor organization and sub-par electoral performance. I agree that the unions are a core constituency of the party, especially here in Michigan. My understanding of the complaints I've heard is that the unions, namely the UAW, exert influence within the MDP as though they were the only constituency, or at least the only one of any consequence. When things didn't go so well on the state level this past November, especially the failure of Proposition 2 and the failure to make significant gains in the State House & MI Supreme Court, the underlying tensions came to a head and manifested themselves in the chair's race.

              As to the commenters I referenced, at least some of the are identifiable as local party leaders from various parts of the state, so they're at least a step above "random," but I admit it's a small sample either way. I do disagree that the "process complaint" is irrelevant to whether the UAW has been helpful or harmful to the MDP, at least insofar as the apparent attempt to play kingmaker seems to bolster the argument that the UAW is exerting disproportionate influence.

              Really, I think that the next two to four years will be telling. If Johnson, with the strong backing of the UAW especially (and probably the other unions as well, now that the chair's race is over), turns around electorally, then it really will show that all the grumbling was baseless.

              30, m, MI-14. Make Rick Snyder a one-term nerd.

              by Silvan Elf on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 03:45:27 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  "Random People" (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Silvan Elf, gabjoh

              I'm a member over at Michigan Liberal.  I think it's pretty unusual for a local political blog in that A LOT of the members are actually party activists and members, many of which use their own names.  So, it's not a lot of "random" people.  It's a tight-knit little group, to the point of where regular observers such as myself often feel on the outs.

              Anyway, for those of us that have criticized the UAW, it isn't about getting rid of them, rather, loosening the near complete grip they have on policy-making.  The central office doesn't exactly represent the Big Tent as well as it should.  What's more is that when the UAW has failed the party spectacularly, they've always been able to put it on someone else, and the backing of Johnson is probably the most visible example of that in years.  The same elephant calling for "change" is the same elephant that was the creator of the collective baragaining amendement that failed that many of us supported, but who thought it was so over-reaching as to be rejected.  Had it been a clean collective bargaining initiative, as opposed to the loaded-up one we got that changed dozens of laws, it'd have passed in a second.  The UAW overreached, and instead of being punished, has now been rewarded by changing the subject.

              They failed and then let their former friend take the fall.  So, I think you need to know a bit more about internal dynamics before passing judgement.  This isn't about unions in general, but about the failure of the UAW in politics, in particular.  To be clear, in this leadership fight, this wasn't about union vs. anti-union Dems, since the major unions split in this leadership fight.

            •  the dems being a coroporate party isn't bad (0+ / 0-)

              just as long as it isn't the bad industries (oil, coal, extraction industries). If the dems are in bed with the green industries, then I could care less.

              RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

              by demographicarmageddon on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 07:17:37 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  modernizing? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 03:46:48 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I've taken that to mean (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, MichaelNY, skibum59

              Making better use of social media without supplanting traditional forms of GOTV (phone banking, etc.); collecting voter data ala OFA and then putting it in a useful form for canvassing and other voter contact; and generally coordinating messaging and campaigning.

              The 2012 election was the first one in several years that I was actually back in MI for after going to school out of state. I volunteered my time for a local candidate and it was interesting to observe first hand the various operations of the other campaigns. Getting voter data was next to impossible, despite repeated attempts by my candidate to do so. When we did canvassing, we hit literally every door on a street. Unless a house had yard signs, we had no idea which ones to avoid as hopeless/a waste of time, which ones had voted already by absentee, etc.

              It was also a push to get Facebook and Twitter up and in regular use (but we did).

              That, in a nutshell, is my take on the "modernizing" issue that I've heard brought up from time to time.

              30, m, MI-14. Make Rick Snyder a one-term nerd.

              by Silvan Elf on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 04:00:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  Same feeling (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Silvan Elf

        This is one of the very few races I didn't really have a dog in the fight for.  Quite frankly, I was a bit peeved at how this was all handled and that the UAW, of all groups, was trying to bring down the guy that did all their bidding.  It was VERY hard for me to see Lon as change, and a bit galling to see the UAW get away with looking like the "change" agent.  I'm also a bit annoyed that the very first thing ever printed about Lon when his name is mentioned is that "his wife is a fundraiser for Obama."  The whole thing feels like the 2008 Democratic primary fight in that it wasn't just about wanting new blood, but being petty is their rebuke of the past.

        I'm not going to loose any sleep over seeing Brewer go, but the way they treated him in these last two months has been nothing short of an embarrassment for the party, and it's made me less excited about the party, not more.  So, yeah, meh.

  •  Montana politics (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, psychicpanda, Audrid, Gygaxian

    Montana State Representative Steve Lavin has introduced a bill that would give corporations the right to vote.

    No, that is NOT from The Onion!

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 01:50:09 PM PST

  •  Florida Counties: 2004 vs. 2012. (10+ / 0-)

    Inspired by some Twitter musings, here's Florida Counties, Republican vote share in 2012 vs. 2004 (numbers via. U.S. Elections Atlas).  The size of the circle is population (scaled, but just to give an idea) and the color is the change in non-Hispanic white population, from 2000 to 2010 (bluer = more of a shift) and the diagonal line shows Romney doing three points worse than Bush, more or less the national averages.

    You can see how Palm Beach County stands out (for its relative Republican movement despite being a large, diversifying county) and how much Osceola County diversified compared to anywhere else.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

    by Xenocrypt on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 03:11:28 PM PST

    •  You can also see that Miami-Dade (4+ / 0-)

      didn't really diversify that much.  The swing there wasn't about diversification as such.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 03:13:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  *Change in NHW population share. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 03:13:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  What I was wondering about is FL-18. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Which had perhaps the sharpest combined right turns from 2004 to 2008 and 2008 to 2012 of any Dem-held district outside of WV-03.  It consists of all of St. Lucie county and Martin County, plus some of Palm Beach County.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

      by Xenocrypt on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 03:21:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Old, White, pretty wealthy people (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Not that many areas in America are older than average and wealthier than average.  Typically the older areas are poor, where the children all moved out.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 03:31:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  FL-18 isn't that wealthy. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          The ACS has the median household income at $47,516.  I think that's below the national average.  Old?  That might be true.

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

          by Xenocrypt on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 04:08:15 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Hmmm (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I thought they were wealthier than that.  But the coastal areas of Florida are definitely older than average.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

            by jncca on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 04:44:11 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  It's actually (relatively) wealthy for Florida. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Here's Florida's CDs with MHI:

              FL-04    $53,036.00
              FL-21    $51,757.00
              FL-22    $51,227.00
              FL-07    $51,007.00
              FL-23    $50,581.00
              FL-26    $48,899.00
              FL-10    $48,832.00
              FL-18    $47,516.00
              FL-19    $47,143.00
              FL-15    $47,117.00
              FL-25    $46,869.00
              FL-12    $46,766.00
              FL-01    $46,401.00
              FL-16    $45,622.00
              FL-08    $45,366.00
              FL-06    $43,375.00
              FL-03    $42,966.00
              FL-13    $42,827.00
              FL-02    $42,107.00
              FL-09    $41,564.00
              FL-17    $40,162.00
              FL-27    $38,679.00
              FL-14    $38,036.00
              FL-11    $37,885.00
              FL-24    $36,062.00
              FL-20    $35,941.00
              FL-05    $32,772.00
              Palm Beach County's MHI is just about the national one, but that's enough to make it the 11th-highest-income county in the state.

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14). Also at http://xenocrypt.blogspot.com.

              by Xenocrypt on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 05:23:37 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  Dad just shared a story from Mardi Gras in NOLA (5+ / 0-)

    Mitch Landrieu was in the parade on horseback and introduced some of the various delegations in the parade.

    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

    by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 03:12:26 PM PST

    •  I remember right after Mitch was elected (4+ / 0-)

      the Saints had a victory parade since they won the Superbowl a few days ago.  Mayor-elect Landrieu got to ride in it.  He got a good amount of applause but he knew the day wasn't about him; he led a "Who Dat" chant.      

      Then Mayor Nagin was nowhere to be seen in that parade.  I think he didn't want to go through hours of constant booing.    

      23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

      by Jeff Singer on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 10:24:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Happens every year (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, Darth Jeff

      One of my favorite Mardi Gras sights is on Mardi Gras Day at midnight, Mayor Landrieu leads the NOPD mounted unit down Bourbon St, clearing the streets of all revelers, officially marking the end of Mardi Gras.

      Typically from midnight of Mardi Gras to the next morning is the only time the 24-hour Bourbon St bars close. It's such a sight to watch the street flooded with horses, Mitch is a fair horseback rider.

      They turn at the corner of St Ann (literally feet before the gay part of Bourbon, where the party continues) and the view from the corner suite of the Bourbon Orleans is killer.

      23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 03:50:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-5: Sensenbrenner NOT retiring...yet. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Apparently, Jim Sensenbrenner sent out this tweet, directed at Former State Sen. Ted Kanavas, Former State Sen. Rich Zipperer, and State Sen. Leah Vukmir (all Republicans), telling them in strong words that he doesn't intend to quit anytime soon

    I wonder if any of those three may be open to a primary challenge if Sensenbrenner runs for re-election, additionally, all three of the individuals that Sensenbrenner mentioned would be open to running for Sensenbrenner's seat if Sensenbrenner changes his mind and retires after all. Other potential successors to Sensenbrenner (all of which are Republicans) include Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, State Rep. Joel Kleefisch (Rebecca's husband), State Rep. Joe Sanfelippo, State Rep. Don Pridemore, State Rep. Chris Kapenga, Waukesha County Executive Dan Vrakas, Former Lt. Gov. Margaret Farrow, and State Sen. Paul Farrow.

    Given how conservative Sensenbrenner is, he should be safe from any primary challenge, and, if Sensenbrenner retires, expect a multi-way Republican primary that is tantamount to election.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 06:53:21 PM PST

  •  KY Senate: Republicans really screwing Dems (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    psychicpanda

    Though I think they will tinker with district numbers, here is what I think the GOP may do the Dems in the Louisville area. They can pack Dems into two districts- District 33 is 89% Obama and District 35 is 72% Obama. Sen. Perry Clark (D-Louisville) does not live in SD-37, but in SD-38 with Sen. Dan "Malano" Seum (R-Fairdale), which is 54% McCain. Freshman Sen. Morgan McGarvey (D-Louisville) is placed in a district (by a couple of blocks) with Sen. Julie Denton (R-Louisville) in a 55% McCain seat in the eastern part of the county. The open District 37 is a nearly even Obama/McCain seat, which would be a tossup, as there are a lot of conservative Dems here. McGarvey's SD-19 is now in Bullitt/Nelson at 62% McCain. The upside is Rep. David Floyd (R-Bardstown) would run here and Dems would likely gain his House seat. This seat could move out of Jefferson County because SD-20 and SD-26 use Jefferson County round out their population numbers.

     photo LouisvilleSenate_zps0e4e3ba8.jpg

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 07:10:45 PM PST

  •  IN-08: I wonder if John Gregg might run. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, BeloitDem

    He seems to be staying active. Which isn't to surprising I guess.

    •  He'd be a good recruit (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, WisJohn

      But I think the district is just too tough for us.  On the other hand, maybe not having Obama on the ballot will help.  Either way, he's our best shot.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 07:39:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have a feeling that all the Indiana Dem eggs (4+ / 0-)

        will into the IN-02 basket to defeat Wacky Jackie Walorksi (R-Lakeville). You may see decent, but not really strong candidates in IN-08 and IN-09.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 07:49:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  As a IN-02 resident, that would be nice, (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          selfish as that is for me to say. Gregg would be a great candidate for IN-08, he really held down the margins in that area last year. And he would do much better without any other major elections, like Pres or Sen.

          25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 09:07:00 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Gregg is making moves to run for Gov in 2016 (5+ / 0-)

      The seat was hand drawn for him in 2002 and he passed on it. The person we need to get to run is Brad Ellsworth. The newest version is even more favorable to him than before by adding Dubios County, where he is originally from (and by adding Spencer and Perry Counties, which are in the Evansville media market). Baron Hill also seems to be interesting in 2016 for Gov.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 07:42:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  thinking Pence will be less popular (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, jj32

        or not run for re-elect and instead run for Pres?

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 07:44:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  He wanted to run for Pres in 2012, (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, jj32

          but held off to get executive experience as Indiana Governor.

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 07:45:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  HoweyPolitics posted speculation about Joe Hogsett (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        For those not clued into Indiana politics, Hogsett was an aide to Evan Bayh and SoS in the early '90s back when he was still quite young. He lost pretty heavily though to Dan Coats in 1992, and then narrowly lost a congressional bid in 1994. After that he served as IN State Democratic Chair but otherwise seemed to leave politics. His name did get thrown out a little bit back when Evan Bayh retired, though he was seen as a third-stringer.

        Since 2010, though, he's been a US Attorney and he's been attracting buzz as a possible future candidate for Mayor of Indianapolis or as governor or senator in 2016. I'm curious what people think of him as a potential candidate.

        •  He actually took over for (0+ / 0-)

          Susan Brooks, who resigned to run for Congress.

          25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 10:33:25 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Joe Hogsett is running for Mayor of Indianapolis (8+ / 0-)

          in 2015.  Also, I saw Baron Hill out in Broad Ripple yesterday (I was getting a hair cut at Super Cuts of all places) and he told me he was forming an exploratory bid for Governor in 2016.  

          I wouldn't mind Hill running in 2016 for governor.

          27, male, gay, living with and loving my partner of over 4 years in downtown Indianapolis (IN-7).

          by IndyLiberal on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 06:14:08 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  You may see a proxy fight for the state chair race (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, Christopher Walker

            between Baron Hill and John Gregg, if Vi Simpson enters the race for state chair. Baron Hill clearly wants his former Chief of Staff John Zody, and Gregg wants Vi Simpson. Next Saturday, all 92 counties will have county chair elections, then all 9 CDs will have district chair and vice-chair elections, where each of them, along with a few others will vote for the state chair. It already seems that the 6th and 9th District vote would go to Simpson if the people stay the same. The 1st CD will surely go for Zody. If she runs, it could be an interesting race for State Chair.

            "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

            by SouthernINDem on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 12:45:40 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Can they nudge Ellsworth to return? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, HoosierD42

        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

        by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 09:49:18 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think the right estrategy for the Dems in IN (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I think the right estrategy in Indiana would be to focus in some statewide race.

        Surely the new PVI of the state will be R+5. Not as bad. The congressional districts will be worse, even IN-02 (R+6). In the following years it will be easier for you to win statewide, like 2012 proved.

  •  question about dem candidates/incumbents (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    OGGoldy

    has there ever been a dem equivalent of Bill Sali in that they are someone who is a bad enough candidate to lose an otherwise safe district? I think the closest thing to a dem equivalent of Sali would be Bella Abzug, who lost an open seat race in a 63% Carter district in 1978.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 07:43:57 PM PST

  •  Speculation that Israel may have another election (6+ / 0-)

    It appears Likud is having some trouble finding to votes for a coalition government. Any thoughts?  I would enjoy seeing Bibi get kicked out on his ass, but I'm not sure what the odds of that occurring.

    Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Daman09 on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 11:09:58 PM PST

    •  I just hope another election (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      is not just going to be the Likud's attempt at a mulligan and that they only stand to gain from it.

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 23, 2013 at 11:33:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The odds are rather good (5+ / 0-)

      Yair Lapid and his Yesh Atid Party are forming a blocking coalition with HaBayit HaYehudi, and together they control 31 seats.  If they hold firm, Netanyahu cannot get to 61 seats, unless Labor defects to him.  If there is another election, the right is going to lose big time... Netanyahu will drop to ~20 seats and Yair Lapid will rise to ~30 and the era of BiBi will be over.

    •  Obama heading there in March will save the day... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, bumiputera

      for Bibi unfortunately.  They're rolling out the red carpet for him in a big show because they likely feel that the chilling effect of Netanyahu being in deep with Romney and playing in US politics hurt US/Israel relations and voters wanted to send a message/replace Bibi to repair the fraying relationship between Israel and the US.  

      This isn't bad per se because Bibi needs Obama for something, and it means Obama can get something in return.  Kerry is going to put great focus on Israel-Palestine peace, as he sees it as his ultimate legacy.  Bibi has probably ran his last race, and might figure he needs to bend a bit or he could be out on his ass and would be frozen out of the process.  

      Is President Obama really nothing more than a 1980's Reagan Democrat in the year 2013?

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 08:42:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  What I wouldn't (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, gabjoh

      What I wouldn't give to see Bibi out.  Israel's future deserves much better than him.

    •  Another Election would be a Disaster for Netanyahu (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera, sacman701, jncca

      And for Livni, and for Labor if they join the government, which why they won't without Bennet or Lapid.

      Lapid and Bennett have been amazingly successful in shifting Israeli politics away from the Palestinian issue for the first time in two decades, and focus it instead on the issue of the Haridim, and the idea of all citizens "doing there fair share". This has allowed Lapid and Bennett to outflank their foes(Netanyahu, but also Livni and Labour) from both the right and the left. Lapid can rally secular voters, especially woman and younger cosmopolitan voters who have been whipped up into a state of hysteria over things like Haridim harassing woman who refuse to move to the back of buses. Furthermore, he can do this without taking any sort of position on the peace process by running on crushing the Haridim.

      At the same time, the idea of "shared sacrifice" not only appeals to fiscally conservative voters, but also to security voters. More subtly, the "shared sacrifice" meme also implies mandatory national service for Israeli Arabs. Given that a lot of people on the Israeli right have been flirting with various ideas for getting rid of Israeli Arabs, whether transfer, trading territory(Lieberman's old idea) or loyalty oaths, the idea of mandatory national service with the implication that those who avoid it will lose rights has enormous appeal.

      Israel politics is really quite simple right now in terms of messaging. Netanyahu could have a government overnight if he accepted a policy that a vast majority of Israelis on both Left and Right are convinced(probably wrongly) would solve all of their problems, but his stubborn refusal to abandon the religious parties is denying Israel a government. That will be the message in any new election.

      That said I would not be too happy if I were on the Pro-Peace traditional left. The price for the alliance on Lapid's part has been a more complete abandonment of Peace Process than even Netanyahu contemplated, while the Bennett is Lieberman without the thuggishness and Mafia ties. And if new elections happen, while Netanyahu will lose seats, Livni, Labour, and probably Meretz will be destroyed.

  •  Up With Chris Hayes on Section 5 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Did any of you see this segment from “Up with Chris Hayes” on Section 5? Hayes emphasized the fact that the VRA has been renewed multiple times with huge bipartisan majorities. The Court is trying to overturn section 5 by making a factual judgment about whether the conditions of discrimination are still present. Hayes and the other panelists felt that Congress did a better job of judging the conditions since they held 21 hearings and received 50,000  pages of records. One of the reasons enforced Section 5 for only those states and districts with a history of discrimination is that those states and districts (25% of the population) made up 52% of the non-section 5 voting violations. I personally enjoyed the discussion and I hope you guys will as well.

    http://tv.msnbc.com/...

    •  Honestly, I think we should just expand (13+ / 0-)

      Section 5 to everyone.

    •  Too bad Section 5 will be struck down (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chachy, MichaelNY

      We studied this extensively in my Election Law class last year, and the general consensus is that Section 5 is toast.  On the bright side, Kennedy seems to favor keeping Section 2 which helps some.

      27, male, gay, living with and loving my partner of over 4 years in downtown Indianapolis (IN-7).

      by IndyLiberal on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 08:54:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Someone upthread contested (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY

        that they throw out the 1972 formula for preclearance, forcing Congress to act or something.  I'm no lawyer though.  I don't think Section 2 is at risk, though.  They voted 8-1 to uphold it in 2009 and Roberts and Kennedy support it.  It's also not what it's being debated this year.  With or without section 5, the DOJ Civil Rights Commission can still enforce the VRA with lawsuits and the like.

        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

        by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 10:07:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Watched and loved (0+ / 0-)

      I mean, besides the Uncle Tom they had on the program. It was interesting watching a black person argue that the VRA is unconstitutional and all those nice folk down in Alabama are real nice and not racist at all.

      I am not as certain as others that Section 5 will be struck down. If I had to rate it, I'd say maybe 60% chance it is, but I think Roberts has shown a willingness on cases of large importance and media attention to be a bit more pragmatic, especially in wake of Citizens United.

      We will see though. I also thought the argument for NOT expanding Section 5 throughout the country was certainly interesting, that a deep targeted focus on problem areas was better than a vast and shallow attempt to root out the problem.

      23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 04:04:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's extremely offensive of you to call someone (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, askew

        you disagree with politically an Uncle Tom.  That's the type of language we need to never, ever use.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 05:09:03 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't necessarily agree (0+ / 0-)

          I don't think it's always inappropriate for people in historically oppressed groups (e.g. women, gay people, black people) to call out other people in their group who are committing/perpetuating said oppression, even with harsh names.

          However, I would very much shy away from using such terms in a forum such as this one.

          Vaccinate your child. Vaccinate yourself. | Pro-transit, pro-gun, anti-NRA young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | Hutchinson for IL-02!

          by gabjoh on Mon Feb 25, 2013 at 04:57:47 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Did you watch? (0+ / 0-)

          I don't label him an Uncle Tom because he is a Republican or a conservative, please dismount from your high horse.

          Miriam Webster defines the term as "a member of a low-status group who is overly subservient to or cooperative with authority."

          You have a portion of a law (Section 5) that is in place to protect the rights and preferences of minorities in places where they have faced historical discrimination.

          I think he's a pretty good example of that definition. He is a member of the group the law is supposed to protect working with "authority" in this case a radical court to subvert the will and authority of Congress.

          I don't assert that all minority, female or LGBT Republicans are Uncle Toms. But in this case, you have a black conservative working to dismantle a historic piece of legislation that means to and does protect other black voters in the South. This man is a text book Uncle Tom.

          23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

          by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Feb 25, 2013 at 08:30:02 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Just saw "The Omen" for the first time last night. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17

    Very good horror with a perfect theme:
    https://www.youtube.com/...

    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

    by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 10:08:30 AM PST

  •  Going to meet Ed Markey (MA Senate) right now! (11+ / 0-)

    he's still gathering the 10K signatures he needs to be on the ballot. Hoping one will be mine.

  •  First Italian exit poll (6+ / 0-)

    Common Good of Italy (big tent center-left): 32.7%
    Unnamed right-wing coalition (Berlusconi and friends): 28%
    Five Star Movement (populist joke party): 20.7%
    With Monti for Italy (europhile centrists): 11.3%
    Civil Revolution (communists and greens): 4.9%

    The threshold for proportional representation is 4%.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 10:37:07 AM PST

  •  AR-SEN: Pryor approval at 42/35, Beebe at 68/19 (8+ / 0-)

    Kind of concerning that 25% of the state has no idea who you are after a decade in office. My idea on this race remains the same - Pryor is very vulnerable because of the new state's geography but he is in a much better shape that Blanche Lincoln was at this point in 2009.

    http://talkbusiness.net/...

  •  Pet peeve. (6+ / 0-)

    When supposed journalists can't tell the difference between a "state representative" and a "state senator." This mistake happens constantly in the national media. Sometimes even local media will screw it up too.

    I get that the media has bigger problems, but it's just not that hard.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 12:28:21 PM PST

  •  VA-GOV, PRES: A lot of political consequences (6+ / 0-)

    of the recently passed transportation bill.

    It's being seen as a big win for McDonnell. I believe, it's the first major transportation bill in VA to pass since 1986. And it seems like it's a big win for him. In Virginia. But not so much for his national prospects given that Norquist is against the bill because it raises taxes. McDonnell isnt well known to the national GOP(compared to, say, Walker, Rubio, Jindal) so it seems like it's a problem for him, if he has to start off a 2016 campaign defending a tax hike.

    But it does seem like he would be a very strong candidate to go up against Kaine in 2018, although, politically, that's light years away.

    Another interesting angle to this: Terry McAuliffe was calling Dem legislators urging them to SUPPORT the bill, while Ken Cuccinelli came out against it.  

    •  2018 is five years away... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY

      I guess he could stay relevant by running for President in 2016 and losing - but 5 years out of elected office - what does he do in the interim?  Head to a Conservative Thinktank to pay the bills?

      This bill would have been a bigger deal for Bolling, and it's very telling that McAuliffe got involved urging support from Dems, because he's basically giving McDonnell a big win in hopes of winning the moderate pro-business Republican support of McDonnell who might be scared off of Cuccinelli.  

      I'm not worried one lick about McDonnell in 2016.  He'd probably get a gig in a Republican Administration, but he's not going to win it himself.  Walker, Christie and Rubio will be the big names for the GOP in 2016.  With Condi Rice as the GOP VP candidate if Hillary is the Dem nominee.  

      If you're not talking about what billionaire hedgefund bankster Peter G. Peterson is up to you're having the wrong conversations.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 01:32:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agreed with you until (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, MichaelNY, gabjoh

        Condi as VP.

        I know her favorables are strong, but I think that's superficial. She is probably too moderate for a lot of conservatives(pro-choice and pro immigration reform), and if she ran, she would have to defend the foreign policy record of the Bush admin.

        If Obama still has strong numbers on FP in three years, then Hillary vs Condi will be seen as a proxy debate of the Obama FP vs the Bush FP. Probably not something Republicans are eager for. I mean, it's telling that, among Republicans, it's really only McCain still arguing about the Iraq war. I think most Republicans want to move on from that.

        If the GOP wants a woman as VP, it will likely be Martinez, or Haley, if she is re-elected.  

        •  I say Condi because the GOP ticket will need FP (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, MichaelNY

          credentials.  I would have said Petraeus, but that's obviously out the window.  If not Condi, I'd probably go with Ayotte, as she's hanging on with McCain, Graham and getting on all the right committees.  

          If you're not talking about what billionaire hedgefund bankster Peter G. Peterson is up to you're having the wrong conversations.

          by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 02:09:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  True, that's a good point (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            They could need someone with FP credentials. And the bench there is pretty thin. Ayotte definitely a better option than Rice, imo, but I think she will be running for re-election.

            •  She could do both. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jj32, MichaelNY

              But might not have the seniority to pull it off - ie a largely absent Senate re-election race, while also having to play attack dog on the Republican ticket and take stances that could be out of touch with her state.

              If you're not talking about what billionaire hedgefund bankster Peter G. Peterson is up to you're having the wrong conversations.

              by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 03:36:47 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Their FP credentials will be bullshit if needed (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, BeloitDem, Skaje, MichaelNY

            It will be crap like Rubio visiting Israel a few times like was parroted in the media as literally giving him foreign policy cred...

            Also I would bet you anything, literally anything, that Condi will never come anywhere close to being on the GOP ticket. She's pro-choice and that's a dealbreaker right there, but regardless of what her favorables look like now, what the hell does she bring in terms of qualifications other than foreign policy? Absolutely nothing, and if she got put into the spotlight Dems would have a field day bringing the utter debacle that was the Iraq war back into the news cycle. Her favorables would nosedive.

        •  Or Ayotte (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 02:11:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Christie... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY

        I don't see how Christie has any real potential to win a republican nomination. The folks that barely favored Romney over Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich aren't going to favor Christie over Rubio, Jindal, Walker, Bush, or any of a number of legitimate conservative candidates.

    •  If Cooch was against it (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, LordMike, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      and this bill is a good thing, McAuliffe has more material to use against him.

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 01:48:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  A good analysis: (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BennyToothpick, jj32

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 01:58:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  i can't believe that this bill taxes owners of (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      hybrid and electric vehicles. i guess they couldn't resist an opportunity to say "fuck you" to the hippies. At least the gas tax survived.

    •  Getting a tranportation bill nowin the waning days (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      of McDonnell gets a huge headache and distraction off the plate of whoever the next Governor is.

      So no surprise McAuliffe would prefer that.
      But one might think even a Gov. Cooch might like that issue gone for a while; & would allow him more time to focus on denying climate change, more guns, more ultrasound, etc etc

    •  One thing no one has mentioned that's HUGE... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, Skaje, MichaelNY

      ...in understanding the politics:  a lot of Rs voted no, including a majority of Senate Rs, meaning the thing needed a lot of Ds to pass either chamber.

      In other words, same as the fiscal cliff deal U.S. House vote at the federal level.

      McDonnell had to have Ds to pass the thing.

      And the concessions to Dems such as on Medicaid didn't matter to the Rs who voted no, they oppose any tax increase for anything, period, so they objected to McDonnell's proposal right up front.

      That said, some liberals opposed from the left, because the deal does take money away from schools.  That scares me personally as a parent with a daughter in 1st grade now, a boy starting kindergarten in the fall, and a 1-year old who will extend my life as a public school parent an additional 4 years after the older boy is off to college a long time from now.

      I have mixed feelings on the overall bill, and I find it interesting how it shook out, but ultimately Cooch is on an island as the odd man out between McDonnell, Bolling, and McAuliffe, and the R legislative leadership.  This will hurt Cooch a little.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 07:46:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  English as official language (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    How much do you think putting English as the official language into the immigration bill will help convince establishment Republicans to vote for it?  It will probably help some with the base.  It's something concrete they can claim they got Obama to agree to, but it won't actually have too much effect and will definitely not be as significant as things like a pathway to legalization/citizenship.

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

    by jncca on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 02:25:38 PM PST

    •  Problem is they will insist it be tied to... (7+ / 0-)

      ...other requirements such as nixing multilingual ballots, and multilingual anything else.

      And it's going to be unacceptable to Hispanic Americans and some others.

      And I don't think it will win any votes anyway for the broader bill.  The people who demand English as the official language are the same people who won't compromise on a path to citizenship.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 07:39:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  This is Rasmussen but it's all I could find (0+ / 0-)

        http://www.rasmussenreports.com/...

        87% want English as the official language.  It's clearly more than just the GOP base that wants it.  The GOP base is the most vocal about it; most of the people who said yes in this poll don't spend a minute thinking about it the rest of the year.  But it's something with broad support, but more support among the GOP base than elsewhere.  I think a lot of Republicans want a path to citizenship as a path to electoral victory rather than because they truly believe in it, and so they'll want as many concessions as possible.  This is an easy and popular concession Democrats can give.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 08:04:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  States have the right to set their official (0+ / 0-)

          languages, and New Mexico has both Spanish and English as official languages. If the Congress were to pass this kind of legislation, count on a lawsuit from New Mexico and a Supreme Court ruling.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Mon Feb 25, 2013 at 12:19:46 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  You're dead wrong on one key thing (0+ / 0-)

          "I think a lot of Republicans want a path to citizenship as a path to electoral victory."

          NO, some do, but most don't.

          Most don't out of principle, and some of them also realize it's not a path to electoral victory anyway.

          Those who are smart and want it realize while it's no positive electoral benefit, it at least removes one cudgel and that does help move the margins a small bit.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Mon Feb 25, 2013 at 07:51:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  The only white member with a 90%+ non-white CD is? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Per Dave Wasserman, answer: link

    •  Hahn (4+ / 0-)

      I knew it was Janice Hahn before even opening up the link.

      I was initially very skeptical of her because of the way she ran her campaign among the Democrats in her special election, but I'm very thankful for her. Not only does she seem better than Jane Harman (ever since her appearances on Bill Maher's show in 2011, I haven't been a fan of her; she was on Fareed Zakaria's show this morning as well), but she helped us finally dispatch of Laura Richardson. She seems like a markedly better Democrat than both Harman and Richardson all around.

      The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 03:37:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  yeah, things turned out well here (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I wonder if Harmon hadn't quit, if she would have tried to run in this CD, or more likely in the new coastal CD-33 against Waxman? But happily she left.

        Also I wonder how many years Hahn can hold this CD (68% Hispanic, 17% black, 7% white) without a challenge by an ambitious Hispanic politician. The good will generated by her last name won't last forever.

  •  Of California's 53 CD's, how many are still (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Non-Hispanic White majority?

    Per Dave Wasserman, answer: link.

    (catching up on last week's tweets).

    The Citizens redistricting commission's main instruction was to use "communities of interest" to draw the lines, so perhaps this shouldn't be too surprising.
    "Communities of interest" was rather broadly defined in Prop 20.

  •  Who are the 11 House Dems (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    with 90%+ Caucasian districts.

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

    by jncca on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 03:41:32 PM PST

  •  Wisconsin polling (0+ / 0-)

    This is half of a week old, but here's opinion polling from PPP (on behalf of the Wisconsin League of Conservation Voters) on a proposed Open-Pit Mining Bill that will be voted on this week by the Wisconsin State Legislature.

    Party affiliation crosstabs are 33D-27R-40I (seems like way too many I's for WI) and the age demographic appears to be skewed heavily towards the 46-65 group.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 04:21:21 PM PST

    •  WI-Gov: Six Dems being polled by PPP (0+ / 0-)

      ...I'm guessing they're polling these potential WI-Gov Democratic candidates in both a hypothetical six-way primary and individual head-to-head general election matchups against Scott Walker.

      Anyways, here's the list of Democratic candidates that PPP is testing:

      State Assembly Minority Leader Peter Barca
      State Senator Jon Erpenbach
      Former U.S. Senator Russ Feingold
      Former U.S. Representative Steve Kagen
      U.S. Representative Ron Kind
      Firefighter/Labor Union Leader Mahlon Mitchell

      Also, someone in the comments section of this blog post has noted that John Nichols of The Nation has floated State Senator Jennifer Shilling as a potential Democratic WI-Gov candidate, however, PPP is not testing Shilling this time around.

      Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

      by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 07:13:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  State Legislature Question (4+ / 0-)

    Rep. Hubert Collins (D-Whittensburg) represents Kentucky HD-97. The Obama number in his district was 17.70% in 2012. Does anyone know of any state legislative district anywhere in the country represented by a Democrat where Obama did worse? I am thinking this district may be the winner on this one. And I have checked this other Kentucky districts. There are several other Dems that are in seats less than 25% Obama.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 04:37:43 PM PST

    •  I'd wager it might be someone from Mississippi (0+ / 0-)

      or Louisiana if there are any blue dogs left in the north.

      •  No (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SouthernINDem, Stephen Wolf

        The worst Obama numbers of any Democratic-held State Leg. district in Mississippi are in the low 20s.  In Louisiana it's Obama mid-to-low 40s.

        That's pretty impressive, though, 17.7% Obama.

        I wonder what the lowest Romney percentage is for a State Leg. district held by a Republican?  It may be one of the State House districts in Hawaii or somewhere in New England.

        •  Especially considering that state Rep was elected (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          psychicpanda

          on the same ticket as Obama. That legislator from Mississippi was elected during an off year.

          I would have to guess the highest Obama percentage is definitely either Hawaii or probably Vermont.

        •  And here are some of the lowest (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          Obama percentages in Democratic districts in Mississippi

          Rep. Jody Steverson ~24% Obama
          Rep. Nick Bain ~24% Obama
          Rep. Bo Eaton ~25% Obama
          Rep. David Baria ~29% Obama

          There are about a dozen more Democrats in the state House that represent districts that are 30-50% Obama.

          Sen. Nickey Browning ~25% Obama
          Sen. J.P. Wilemon ~23% Obama

          Sen. Eric Powell of Alcorn County in Northern Miss. represented a district 24% Obama, but he was defeated very narrowly in 2011.  Funny thing though, he's black... not a district you'd think would elect an black state Senator.

          •  And Eric Powell (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            ousted a white Republican incumbent in 2007 in this region that has a spotty-at-best history of race relations.  That district was made marginally bluer and more AA in redistricting so I hope Eric Powell tries for a comeback in 2015.

            "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

            by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 08:35:12 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  I believe you would be correct on that (0+ / 0-)

          There were only a few 80%+ Romney counties in Mississippi (George) and Louisiana (Livingston, Cameron, LaSalle and Grant), and all of them are represented by Republicans. If we could have held onto it in 2010, Rep. James Fields (D-Cullman) represented a 15.20% Obama seat in the Alabama House.

          On another thought, the majority of the Democratic members of both legislative chambers from Kentucky, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and West Virginia represent Romney districts. I wonder if any other state can say that?

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 07:14:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Louisiana (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          No there are definitely seats Dems have here that are in 30s and probably 20s.

          But none I can think of that would be in teens.

          23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

          by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Feb 25, 2013 at 08:37:06 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  I would like some poll about... (0+ / 0-)

    MA-Sen
    MD-Gov
    MA-Gov
    OR-Sen
    HI-Sen
    NJ-Sen
    CO-Sen

    •  OR-Sen is Likely Dem (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, abgin, gabjoh

      No reason to poll there.  Decently popular incumbent in a blue state, no moderate GOPer likely to run.  No contest.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 05:24:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  and didn't PPP poll here (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        abgin

        relatively recently?  And Merkley looked fine.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 05:59:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe (0+ / 0-)

        Maybe you like the polls only for the closer races. It is not my case. I like to have some poll for every races, at least one, and for some interesting races I like to have more than  one.

        Like you can see in the list there are some less competitive races like MA-Sen, MD-Gov or HI-Sen.

        In the case of OR-Sen I want more than one poll. I want to see if J Merkley is raising his profile inside his own state.

        At this stage of the cycle it is more important to do the right polls to avoid future surprises that to poll and poll the races that you know that will be competitive.

    •  If Linda Lingle lost by 25 points (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, KingofSpades, Gygaxian, abgin

      I don't think the GOP has anyone that could get close to making a Hawaii Senate election competitive.  Hawaii is also supposed to be pretty difficult to poll in general, so I wouldn't be expecting to see any numbers in that race for a long time.  If I were Brian Schatz, I would be getting used to the Honolulu-DC commute.  

      •  A primary would still be interesting though. (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, itskevin, MichaelNY, abgin, gabjoh

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 07:18:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hanabusa vs. Schatz? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, MichaelNY, abgin
          •  Also (0+ / 0-)

            Also I think we should not take the result of M Hirono as the result of a Generic D.

            At this point without some poll I would not be able to predict is a race for the senate with B Schatz would be a Hirono vs Lingle type race or a Hanabusa vs Djou type race.

            I want some poll about this race to avoid surprises in the future.

            Many people think that it is necessary only to poll competitive races, it is not my case. I think is better to have at least one poll from every race, and I think at this stage of the cycle is even more important to poll also the non competitive races for avoiding potential bad surprises than to poll and poll lots of times the same competitive races.

  •  Interesting, apparently Virginia gives results for (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, James Allen, itskevin

    Kaine/Allen by congressional district:
    1    47.3%    52.7%
    2    52.1%    47.9%
    3    79.4%    20.6%
    4    50.1%    49.9%
    5    47.0%    53.0%
    6    41.0%    59.0%
    7    44.8%    55.2%
    8    69.5%    30.5%
    9    38.1%    61.9%
    10    50.5%    49.5%
    11    63.8%    36.2%

    So Kaine carried every single district that Obama won in 2008 when he won by a slightly wider margin.

    •  Uh oh... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I guess the MI EV vote rigging scheme is not quite dead just yet:

      http://www.detroitnews.com/...

      Considering how weak Snyder and the MI Senate leader is, we may have been celebrating prematurely.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 06:53:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm not incredibly worried about Michigan (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        considering we have the ability to override it with an initiative/referendum. I'd be much more worried about Wisconsin or Pennsylvania doing it since there's basically no solution short of capturing the trifecta and overriding it legislatively.

        •  The problem (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Is that I doubt that voters would override it. Legislation like this on its face appeals to voters. It would take a very good and very well funded messaging campaign to win.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 07:26:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Right, but that's just it (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, MichaelNY

            there's at least the threat of going to the voters with it and I'd bet in Michigan in particular there are enough people who would vote the right way if we threw down several million to defeat it. There's basically nothing we could do to prevent Wisconsin or Pennsylvania from doing it aside from twisting the arms of people like Gerlach or Fitzpatrick whose districts would become battlegrounds.

            Honestly though, I think that more than anything is going to block the attempt in all three states; there are enough Obama'08/Romney'12 districts that have incumbents who would get very anxious if their districts suddenly saw saturation campaigning.

          •  Until they find out.... (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, askew, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

            ...that the loser would get more electoral votes out of the state than the winner.  That really sours folks on the idea, 'because it's obvious that it's cheating.

            GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

            by LordMike on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 07:35:21 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Michigan voted down all six props in 2012... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin, LordMike

            that would have changed their constitution.  I don't think this would appeal to voters in that the majority who voted Obama/Dems statewide nationally - wouldn't they vote to keep the status quo in the very least?

            And then I still suspect the DOJ is ready to get involved if any State actually goes through with this that tied the EV breakdown to gerrymandered to hell districts.  

            GOP has been too brazen about this plan and why they're only targeting to do this in nationally blue states where they have state trifecta control and not red states - I think there would be a national shitstorm if any state does this really.  

            If you're not talking about what billionaire hedgefund bankster Peter G. Peterson is up to you're having the wrong conversations.

            by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 08:10:05 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Decided to take a page for Stephen (6+ / 0-)

    And use my real name.  Mostly because it links up better with my twitter.

    Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Ryan Dack on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 07:21:13 PM PST

  •  Cuba-Pres (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Raul Castro announced he is retiring.... in 2018. Also mentioned are possible electoral reforms including term limits, and age limits for politicians.

    http://www.startribune.com/...

    Is this a possible glimmer of light towards normalization of relations between our countries?

  •  You know that moment when you realize (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    that there's a much, much faster way of doing something that could have saved you a whole lot of time after you already did it... yeah, so I just realized how to produce those political color by county maps in about oh, 10 seconds each after having colored dozens on DRA manually...

    Anyway, now that it's really easy to do I'll be adding a few more parts to my political geography series showing you the county trends from the statewide average from one year to the next (so in Arkansas for example you could see just what parts of CDs 1 and 4 trended red and what in 2 and 3 trended blue between 2006 and 2010).

    •  How do you do it? (0+ / 0-)

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 08:05:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  color by .csv (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        take the .csv that DRA produces for vtds, create a column and number them all consecutively, create a column where each cell equals the value of the one above it, create an adjacent column that numbers the 1st vtd in each county, sort smallest to largest by that last column, then replace the (equals above) for just those first vtds in every county and since they're in order you can plop in the district you want them to be in and have the equals above cells take care of the rest once you resort by that first column you created.

        So instead of coloring all 134 Virginia political units separately, I was able to assign them to 14 categories and color the map by those. You have to already have data or district categories numbered by county first.

  •  AR-GOV: Halter down 16, Ross down 5 (4+ / 0-)

    I'm of the opinion that Ross can actually still win, especially if he makes Hutchinson out to be a nut. Halter is to be kept as far away as possible from any office in Arkansas. Halter being on the ticket probably makes Chris Thomasen and Mark Malone (if they run) lose as well.

    http://talkbusiness.net/...

  •  Some odd 2016 analysis (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    I guess I shouldnt expect anything different from a former Romney adviser, but I've seen similar analysis like this from others:

    "For 2016, the Democrats seem headed toward a fight between Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. Both launched their careers in the 1970s; what will their slogan be, "Another Century of Service"?"

    "On our side, we have Paul Ryan, Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Susana Martinez and more. Who has the best opportunity to win that generational battle?"

    Ok, first of all, Jeb Bush is only 5 years younger than Hillary Clinton. And I think that's a matchup Democrats will welcome.

    Secondly, age, beyond questions about a candidate's health, really has nothing to do with winning voters. If the economy is stronger in 2016, I think younger, more progressive voters are going to go with Clinton(if she runs) or any Dem over a younger, conservative nominee.  

    If the economy is worse, any GOP nominee is going to have an advantage in winning the election.

    •  Stu Stevens was also the scapegoat by some (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      in the Romney campaign when there was internal complaints leaking out.

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 09:30:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  voters in their 20s & 30s (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, Darth Jeff, itskevin, MichaelNY

      who were part of the Obama generation will not switch to Republicans in significant numbers.  We didn't vote for Obama because he was significantly younger than McCain and Romney.  They may be able to work a little at the margins, but I don't see them getting to 270 absent Democrats really hurting nationally in voters eyes.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 09:51:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Right (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY, jncca

        I never hear Democrats say that an older nominee would get us more voters from elderly voters. Because the elderly tend to be more conservative, and will vote for Republicans, no matter the ages of the candidates.  

        But it seems I'm hearing the younger candidate argument from the GOP a little bit more.

        •  right and what wwmiv says is it (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          and it's what BenjaminDisraeli is missing: why would voters change their preferences, and which voters would those be?  I need a more sophisticated argument than what they're providing.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 10:35:17 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  You'll hear it from me... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Hillary could make a huge dent in those voters, specifically senior women, but she's an exception.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Mon Feb 25, 2013 at 01:11:36 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I think Clinton could have a McCain Problem (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701

      She is someone who is no longer exciting, and while many will wish they could have voted for her eight years earlier, they will be looking for someone more exciting next time around.

      That said, the Republicans are still in the phase of electoral denial in which they believe their losses were flukes. 2008 was the economy, 2012 was a bad candidate. Some Republicans criticize the message, but they think the problem is with specific issues, such as Immigration or Gay Marriage. Despite some feelings here, I think neither of those issues is a problem in and of itself. The greater problem is that the Republican party does not either accept genuine diversity or open-mindedness on any issues, and at the end of the day, the party's inflexibility on economic issues makes it hard for even those unhappy with Democratic management to vote for them.

      I think Christie, if nominated, would be very dangerous. I think Rubio is planning to run the 2012 Romney campaign, albeit with a Hispanic surname.

      •  I disagree (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, James Allen, Chachy, MichaelNY, gabjoh

        There's actually still lots of energy and excitement around Clinton. How many other public figures have ubiquitous Tumblr memes started about them?

        •  McCain still had excitement in 2004 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          2016 is a long way away. I think she could glide into a victory, but I also think that this not a parliamentary system nor is it the 19th century. Campaigns place a lot of emphasis on physical presence, Hillary will have to spend six hours on stage with a Republican rival two decades younger than she is, and I think the outcome of that is unpredictable at this point.

          •  A lot depends on the political climate in 2016 (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            It was horrible for the GOP in 2008. Bush was very unpopular, and McCain was seen as strong supporter of Bush's policies, despite their differences in 2000.

            I think that bad climate for GOP is what diminished enthusiasm for McCain.

          •  McCain did have a lot of excitement around him (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY

            ca. 2004. And then he won the republican nomination and remained broadly popular right through the election. It just happened to be a year no republican had a chance to win.

      •  I disagree on Hillary Clinton (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, wwmiv, Chachy, MichaelNY

        I think there is much more enthusiasm in the Dem base for her, than there was in the GOP base for McCain.

        And then you add the fact that she would be an historic candidate, the first women to be a major party nominee and/or president.

        I agree on the rest though. Christie would probably be the strongest candidate for the GOP.

      •  2016 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I think you're right about the GOP, but not about Hillary. She isn't new anymore, but she's better liked and respected now than in 2008, and I think a lot of indies (especially women) and Dems would be excited about her in 2016.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Feb 25, 2013 at 09:06:54 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  His main argument (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, jj32, Chachy, MichaelNY

      Was that any one of the Republicans he mentioned (Rubio, Christie, Ryan, and others) could win over the youth against Clinton in 2016.

      To which I respond: What exactly about those Republicans - irrespective, or especially, in an election vis-a-vis Hillary Clinton - is appealing to the youth of America?

      All of these people save Christie are just as hard right on all the issues that the young in this country are hard left on.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 10:30:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  rec'd but: save Christie? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Chachy, MichaelNY

        what specifically?

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 10:33:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Christie (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          He's not a culture warrior, nor does he have the appearance of even seeming like one. He's got room to "evolve" on the issue of gay marriage, which he only sortof publicly opposed with meager and halfhearted statements like "the public deserves a vote" couched in the context of most likely passage if they did.

          That's really the only prerequisite for young voters: is this person a culture warrior or not? If they are, the youth will write them off. If they aren't, they might be able to win over more young than they otherwise are able to.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sun Feb 24, 2013 at 10:37:17 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

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