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Rick Springfield -- Jessie's Girl

Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 11:51 PM PT (jeffmd): IL-02: Big news out of IL-02, both the Tribune and the Sun-Times are confirming that state Sen. Toi Hutchinson is dropping out of the special election, which seriously upends the primary with just 9 days to go.

Hutchinson probably occupied an ideological space somewhere near that of Robin Kelly (and further from Debbie Halvorson). Hutchinson is expected to back Kelly, but even if she didn't do so explicitly, it's rather hard to imagine many Hutchinson voters who had Halvorson as a second choice (even setting aside the gun issue). More updates as we get them.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Ashley Judd leaning towards running (5+ / 0-)

    to make decision by Derby Day. She recently had dinner with some important people in Kentucky as well. If she starts looking for houses in the Lexington area, then I think it is certain.

    http://www.whas11.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 04:39:27 PM PST

    •  What do you think? (7+ / 0-)

      Do you think Democrats should find someone else?  I think they should by this summer.

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 04:47:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nobody is willing it seems. (14+ / 0-)

        None want to run against the McConnell machine both because he'll outspend them 10-1 now, but he'll also do everything in his power to end their careers in Kentucky going forward.  

        I'm really torn on Judd.  On one hand, I think she's exactly the person who could have a shot.  I think she could raise a ton of cash and nationalize the race, which in the very least will make McConnell much more the face of the GOP.  She's charismatic and will be underrated in the intelligence department - which will be a benefit to her when she more than holds her own in debates and interviews.

        Or she could flame out spectacularly and be a drag on other races across the state.  Dems can't have all other candidates having to run away from her.  

        DSCC needs to do a lot of polling here, and she needs to high an absolutely top flight campaign team.  If Beshear is term limited out, she should look to grab from his campaign and see if any Clintonites need a warm up in the State.  

        DSCC needs to hire an oppo research team and use it against Judd, because you know McConnell will be doing the same, as will Rove and Co.  There can't be any surprises.  

        She is politically aware, but needs to expand beyond environmental issues and study hard to understand the issues soup to nuts.  Media will treat her very skeptically and look to catch her on issues - she can't allow that to happen.  

        Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and potential for a pipeline leak ecological disaster.

        by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:57:52 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Very good summary! (4+ / 0-)

          Judd definitely needs to do a ton of testing to make sure she is ready for prime time.

          For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

          by Alibguy on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 06:37:12 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  "she'd nationalize the race" (11+ / 0-)

          is a problem, not a solution.  Kentucky is a Republican state in national races.  How much did Obama just lose by?

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 07:51:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's the unimportant part (4+ / 0-)

            It's a huge victory to nationalize this race, for a year or more especially.  The majority of the country is supportive of a generally progressive message.  The majority of the country would be drawn to Judd's ideas, and repeled by the extremist message of the Republicans.

            It is a massive win if the Senate minority leader spends a year spouting off about mountain mining and all that junk that might be a majority view in Kentucky but is a minority view nationally.

            Since no major Kentucky officeholder will make the race, the race is basically lost already.  Judd's candidacy would be a godsend though, and Mitch's folks already know that and that is why they are so afraid of her.

            I'd prefer a top statewide candidate, but it ain't going to happen, so Mitch spouting far right wing talking points for 18 months is a great consolation prize.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 12:17:15 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  that's an entirely different argument. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, DCCyclone

              You're conceding she would lose.  JJ was not.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 12:21:51 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think she still loses... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                betelgeux

                But by nationalize it I meant make it more like Massachusetts this past cycle where the MSM pays a lot more attention to it and a lot of outside money flows in.  Maybe I used the term wrong - I don't mean to say it will be an Obama proxy election in Kentucky or have folks necessarily voting because of the national implications rather than their local issues.  

                I think money is the huge issue keeping all the other statewide candidates out now.  All of them will be outspend at least 10-to-1 given McConnell's power as minority leader and all the obstruction he did the last four years for his big business buddies.  He'll be calling in markers from all of them now and it was said he planned to have something like $25M warchest and run a Presidential type campaign.  

                Judd running makes the whole country pay attention, makes liberals from around the country send her money to take on McConnell.  Mitch could try and make issue of "Hollywood liberal money" flowing in, but I suspect greatly the vast majority of his money will come from out of state as well, not to mention Rove and the Koch's and the like.  Any money that they have to pay to defend their leader is less money that will go against Pryor or Landrieu or Johnson or Hagan or Baucus or Begich.  

                Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and potential for a pipeline leak ecological disaster.

                by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 08:04:00 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  ... and money we spend on her fruitless (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  OGGoldy, MichaelNY, DCCyclone, BeloitDem

                  candidacy is money that could be spent defending Landrieu or Begich.  I've never bought that argument.

                  Mitch would succeed in labeling her as a Hollywood liberal because everything suggests she is one and the Republicans already are labeling her as that before she gets into the race.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 09:46:26 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Money she'll raise would never go to Pryor (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    gabjoh, betelgeux, MichaelNY, Adam B

                    or Landrieu.  She'll get money from folks who would otherwise not donate to a campaign in Arkansas or Louisiana or another candidate in Kentucky for that matter.  

                    She could run a populist campaign against the Corporate lackey McConnell.  She could run on holding corporations and banks accountable, for raising minimum wage, for early childhood education.  She can run on the debt and deficit being a concern but hit hard and mention that they should be a concern whether a Democrat or Republican is in office - point out McConnell's hypocrisies of rubberstamp spending under the Bush Presidency, and how Cheney famously stated upon re-election "Deficits don't matter" and how McConnell and the whole of the GOP didn't bat an eye then.  

                    Judd is a blank slate politically outside environmental issues - McConnell has decades of votes in the Senate.  

                    Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and potential for a pipeline leak ecological disaster.

                    by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 10:35:14 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I'm tipping you for out-of-the-box thinking (4+ / 0-)

                      But I would really rather a real Kentucky Democrat with a chance to win would run against McConnell. I don't like moral victories, coupled with double-digit losses.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 04:01:47 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  ashley judd is far better than nothing (0+ / 0-)

                        in the last poll i saw (i think paid for by the GOP) she was only losing 49-40 to the mighty mcconnell.

                        she has money and she can raise money and she has no voting record that will hurt her.

                        and the nationalizing of the race that helps is that McConnell is the minority leader of the US senate and every ugly deal they have made and failed to make is on his head.

                        he didn't do that well  the last time and he won't do that well this time.  and if everything falls right, he might lose!

                        •  Don't expect 49-40 to be the final result (0+ / 0-)

                          Many people in KY don't yet know that she's the liberal extremist carpetbagger that McConnell and the Republican PACs will blanket-advertise to everyone.

                          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                          by MichaelNY on Mon Feb 18, 2013 at 11:49:08 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

            •  Unlikely (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh

              I do not think it is terribly likely that the national media would put much focus on any senate race away from major media markets (e.g. I think that as long as Republicans can get enough money into it, the New Jersey race will take much more of their attention). This, plus the fact that the media doesn't tend to push all that hard about whether candidates agree with positions taken by out-of-state politicians [excepting presidents or presidential nominees] (even party leadership unless they something very, very stupid), leads me to doubt there is much upside for candidates outside of Kentucky. Obviously, it does, at best, nothing to help candidates in Kentucky.

              Separately, I don't see why Senator McConnell would have to "spout far right talking points for 18 months", as he could, if he chose to, easily play at being moderate were he to face a liberal in the general election. (A rightward pull would come only from a primary. Unless you believe that having Ashley Judd be the Democratic candidate makes it significantly more likely that a well-funded "true conservative alternative" gets in against Senator McConnell, her being the Democratic candidate will not push Senator McConnell to the right.)

              I think the attacks on Ashley Judd are being made because Republicans think she is the most likely Democratic candidate. Making her unviable in the general early keeps her from being funded as well, and hence saves money in the long term.

              I pledge allegiance to liberty and justice for all.

              by childers moof on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 08:09:22 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  It's more than likely; it's already happening (0+ / 0-)

                It's obviously a sure thing it will happen since it has already begun.

                The onbly question is will Republicans continue to act as they are right this second for the nexy year and a half.  Whether they do or not isn't that important even, because it is a victory that they already have, and they are bound to do a little such stuff before the election.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 12:04:21 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  She's a national celebrity (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone

                If she runs, it's a big deal.

                •  Big deal in what way? Hype? Yes. Anything else? nt (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DCCyclone

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 07:03:33 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I'm guessing Adam B means just hype (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, Adam B

                    It will be in the news all the time, and for once that will include Entertainment Tonight, not just the real news.  It will be water cooler talk, everyone in the country will know Ashley Judd is running for Senate in Kentucky.

                    And she'll still lose by 20 points, maybe 15 if she's lucky.  If it's only high single-digits, I'll be stunned and impressed.  Anything closer than that, and I'll be completely shocked and will look at it as needing deep dissection for future consideration on how to think about elections.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 07:43:45 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

      •  Dems still want Secretary of State (9+ / 0-)

        Allison Lundergan Grimes to run. I think Dem fears about Ashley Judd sinking the local candidates are overblown. If they could survive 2012 with Obama, they will survive 2014 with Judd. The main thing Dems have to worry about for the State House in 2014 are open seats, which is where they lost 4 of the 6 seats they lost in 2012.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 06:28:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It will be even less of a worry (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          GradyDem, LordMike

          once they can gerrymander, which they should do this year so as not to push up against the deadline.

          "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

          by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 06:36:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Stumbo wants to do redistricting now, (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            GradyDem, LordMike, MichaelNY

            but Stivers wants it later.

            "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

            by SouthernINDem on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 06:46:12 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  No doubt because it's harder now (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              that the well planned-out retirements and agreements they worked on for the Senate map were completely scrubbed and now they gotta start from scratch in many areas.  Whereas the Democrats only need make modest changes.

              "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

              by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 07:42:17 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  I say she should go for it as long as.. (0+ / 0-)

      No other prominent Kentucky Democrat wants to get in the race. I refuse to concede this race- even with Judd as the nominee. McConnell is seriously damaged.

      Fact of the matter is, if NO other prominent Democrat wants to get involved we need someone. If that someone happens to be a national celebrity I would much rather that than a some dude. Not to mention that I would commend her for her courage to enter a race that every other prominent Kentucky Democrat passed up on. I don't know if they all want to be Governor or Rand Paul's hopeful successor; however, only two people can have those jobs. I can think of far more than two popular Democrats in Kentucky. It is just a tad bit pathetic that they would force Ashley Judd into this race. If anything, she DESERVES our support if nobody else steps up.

      Just my two cents, of course! :)

  •  Anyone in IL, MA, or NJ... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Want to update us on the state of the campaign?

    •  Some early stuff (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, MichaelNY

      early recruitment going on.  A veteran of the Hackensack PD to run for Bergen County Sheriff as a Democrat.  A few Cape May Republicans (including a freeholder) to run in Legislative District 1.  The majority of the pop. here is in Democratic Cumberland County.  Cape May County, a red-leaning county has ironically been shrinking (a fairly large retiree county).  Also, in Dem-leaning LD-7, with Cory Booker headlining, freshman Democratic Asm. Troy Singleton raised 80K for his re-election...in a diner.
      http://www.politickernj.com/...
      Some Democrats wanted Patrick Kennedy (he moved here) to run for Senate, but he backed Pallone for Senate (who signaled interest, but won't say yet out of respect of Lautenberg).

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:12:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Do not forget Virginia either. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, BeloitDem, betelgeux, MichaelNY

      That's critically important.

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 06:00:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  So what do have on VA-Gov? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        &/or any of the Leg races there?

        •  DCCyclone and Johnny Longtorso may know. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          atdnext, lordpet8, MichaelNY

          Supposedly, Democrats got an energetic challenger against Del. Rust, who has a district that voted for Obama by a little over a 20% spread in 2012.

          "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

          by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 06:08:08 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  What office is Rust running for? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            atdnext

            25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 11:20:26 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Delegate as usual. (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              atdnext, MichaelNY

              Democrats have been after him the majority of the last decade and couldn't budge him.  Maybe this time Fairfax County finally shakes off the last cobwebs.

              "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

              by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 01:31:03 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  It's Jennifer Boysko, who I've met. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            I'm on the Dranesville District Committee which is one of the districts that includes HD-86, where Boysko is challenging Rust.  Boysko is on the committee, and just quit her full-time job to campaign full-time.  Her full-time job was as an aide to County Supervisor John Foust, who I know because he's my local county supe.

            My own HD is 34, not 86, and in my district politically well-connected longtime local activist Kathleen Murphy is the candidate against Barbara Comstock.  My district's race was the most expensive in the state in both 2009 and 2011, and will be again this year.  Murphy's ex-husband was Congressman John Murphy of Staten Island, and their son Mark Murphy was the Democratic nominee against Michael Grimm there last year.

            Murphy is a wonderful lady, I have worked the polls with her on election day the past couple years, and I gave her $500 at her campaign kickoff.  I was asked to be on her Finance Committee but am unable to do so because my full-time job prohibits it, even though I'm allowed to do other partisan political things.  I look forward to canvassing for her and doing whatever else I can to help.

            Getting back to Boysko, she has a primary against a very nice and well-meaning guy who is not quite up to the challenge of trying to unseat Rust.  Herb Kemp is his name, and he's raised virtually nothing so far...all the money has been going to Boysko.  I've seen them both at my local committee meetings, and even at first blush the difference is obvious.  Boysko is a very energetic lady who knows a lot of people and very well-connected, and has a lot to say.  I see her as an A-list candidate.

            These are tough seats and we could easily lose both races even on a day we win the statewide offices.  Rust is resilient, and Comstock overperforms in my district which is very light blue, compared to her hard right politics.  Comstock won in 2009 on a fluke based on McDonnell coattails, but she won comfortably in 2011 even as literally everyone else on her ticket in the Dranesville District lost to a Democrat or Democratic Party-endorsed candidate (meaning some candidates were party-endorsed for nonpartisan offices).  It's going to take a smart, disciplined, and very repetitive message to take down Comstock, she's a tough out.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 07:55:23 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  It's really amazing how much press Cuccinelli gets (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, atdnext, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          Granted, most of it is bad, but you'd think he was running unopposed. I haven't seen a single news story about McAuliffe yet, so I have no idea what kind of campaign he's running.

          The House of Delegates is hopeless. The Democrats will probably scrape up a dozen or so decent-to-strong challengers, but I wouldn't be surprised if they only pick up one or two seats this year. The only good news for them is the only potential target the Republicans have right now is the 4th district, but they don't seem to have any interest in challenging Joe Johnson.

          •  Well, that's at least a start. (5+ / 0-)

            If VA Dems can flip Gov, LG, and a handful of Delegate seats, I'll call that a major victory. They just need to start somewhere to stop that mad "tea party" in Richmond.

          •  No news is good news for TMac (3+ / 0-)

            He's a guy with plenty of baggage, and frankly, as he's a private citizen who has never held any public office, there's no reason he'd be in the news right now except for unfriendly reasons.  He's lucky the state and national parties haven't pushed oppo into the news cycles, at least not with any effect, at this stage.  Of course it's still way early, and they may simply be choosing to hold their fire until they see the whites of his eyes.  They're going to try to turn the partisan table and do to him on a lesser scale what Obama and Priorities USA did to Mitt Romney, using TMac's business background against him.  ThHis business background is the entire positive argument for his candidacy, whose strength is rooted far more in fear and hostility toward Cuccinelli.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 08:03:05 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Oh, and Happy Friday... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, yella dawg

    From the sexiest Swing State!

  •  weekend tune (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, wu ming

    In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

    by lordpet8 on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:02:06 PM PST

    •  random fact (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY
      "How You Like Me Now?" could be heard at blaring over the speakers at the McCormick Place Convention Center in Chicago, IL, the election night location for United States President Barack Obama, just after the projected results for Ohio were announced. The Electoral College votes from Ohio clinched the 2012 Presidential re-election for the president.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/..._(band)#In_media

      In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

      by lordpet8 on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:13:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  As always, I'm interested to see your maps of (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, KingofSpades

    a court-drawn or California-style nonpartisan commission drawn congressional map of pretty much any/every state. In particular though, I'd like to see Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Washington as well as Alabama, Louisiana, and South Carolina with 1 VRA district (as I've already drawn very logical 2 VRA maps and the partisan impact is of course very obvious).

    •  I've done a good one of Ohio (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:19:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I have Court Drawn maps for WI, MI, IN, and OH (0+ / 0-)

      But they're Wyoming rule.

    •  here (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, abgin, Stephen Wolf

       photo ca-stylecommissionmap_zps738330ba.png

      District 1: Portland suburbs
      District 2: Eastern & most of Southern Oregon (the parts not in coastal counties)
      District 3: Multnomah County and Hood River County
      District 4: All of the counties on the coast, plus Benton County (which used to be a coastal county)
      District 5: The Mid-Willamette Valley

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 07:26:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Would your district 4 (0+ / 0-)

        Be easier or harder for DeFazio to hold?

        25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 11:27:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  he doesn't have to worry (0+ / 0-)

          it probably moves the district closer to D+4, taking out very red Linn County and replacing it with Dem leaning Clatsop and Lincoln and swingy Tillamook and Columbia.

          OR-01 would be bluer.  OR-05 would be like R+5, I think.  This is based on trying to remember calculations I did a few months ago.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 12:02:24 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I drew some (0+ / 0-)

      But they've been around for awhile. Nothing in the last few months.

      For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37. Go Trojans!!

      by Alibguy on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 09:25:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Oh, & 1 more goodie for the weekend... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, jeffmd

    You'll thank me later. ;-)

  •  fun open thread question (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, WisJohn, Alibguy, betelgeux, MichaelNY

    In what order will the following occur?

    First female president
    First Hispanic president
    First Asian president
    First Jewish president
    First openly atheist president
    First openly non-straight president
    First president under 40 when first elected
    First president over 70 when first elected

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

    by jncca on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:16:04 PM PST

    •  Hmm (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, WisJohn, betelgeux, MichaelNY

      1. First female president
      2. First Hispanic president
      3. First Jewish president
      4. First president over 70 when first elected
      5. First Asian president
      6. First openly non-straight president
      7. First openly atheist president
      8. First president under 40 when first elected

      But honestly, I'm not sure #6-8 will ever happen.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:32:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Well considering Madison and Jefferson (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, psychicpanda, MichaelNY

      who were adamantly "deists" as well as every other president elected has had tremendous pressure to profess religiosity, I think it's incredibly likely we've already had an atheist president, if not multiple ones.

      I don't really see us every electing a Jewish president, at least for a very, very long time, since the right won't nominate one and reform and even conservative Jews are shrinking as a proportion of the population, especially compared to orthodox Jews. There's not natural base large enough to give a Jewish Democrat enough prominence going forward (with NYC being increasingly orthodox). Joe Lieberman, Russ Feingold, and Chuck Schumer are probably going to have come the closest for a long time and none of them got very close at all.

      So to answer your question, I'd probably order them:
      Female
      Hispanic
      LGBT
      Asian
      Over 70
      Under 40
      Openly Atheist
      Jewish

      with the last three not happening until we're all long dead.

      •  Oh also James Buchanan was rumored to be gay (4+ / 0-)

        but the case for that isn't nearly as strong as Jefferson and particularly Madison being atheists, but obviously none of the three were openly so.

        •  Lieberman (6+ / 0-)

          got very close to being VP.  So that's something.
          And I consider Buchanan to have been gay, based on what I've read.  There's a reason I specified openly.

          I also think Jews are less unlikely than you think, considering we tend to be overrepresented in politics.  A Jewish governor of New York (Spitzer without scandal) would be a very strong contender for a presidential nomination, and many other large states have decent numbers of Jewish democrats (California, Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, Illinois).  Not to say I expect a Jewish president soon.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

          by jncca on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:41:07 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I can see Gov. Markell... (3+ / 0-)

            As a potential veep for 2016, which would give him a platform for 2020 or 2024.

            I think Gabrielle Giffords would have been a very strong 2016 contender, at least for veep, if she hadn't been shot. It's a damn shame.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:46:45 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Possibly, but that's just it (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Jews won't have a natural base as even in New York Democratic politics they're (I almost want to type "we" since probably 52-52% of my ancestry is Jewish) going to be increasingly orthodox. I'm not saying it's totally impossible since Jews represent a much larger proportion of the Democratic primary electorate (as well as primary backers) than their population percentage, but it just seems very unlikely to happen and as you say, Spitzer pre-scandal would have been the best bet but even he would have had trouble winning a presidential primary given how liberal he was (relative to the establishment).

            Also, Lieberman was elected VP and should have been inaugurated along with Gore, but other than in Florida I don't think it was decisive that he was a Jew since people were voting for Gore. His presence on the ticket did seem to swing a lot of the Orthodox vote in New Jersey and New York towards Gore though.

            Basically I'd give a Jewish Democrat maybe a 2% chance of ever getting elected while a Jewish Republican effectively a 0% chance.

          •  Would you mind elaborating on what you read about (0+ / 0-)

            Buchanan? All I know about the man was he was the only bachelor president, and he did nothing to prevent the Civil War from happening.

            Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.00, -3.13, Coya shouldn't have been sent home.

            by WisJohn on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 06:33:44 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  here you go (6+ / 0-)
              There can be no doubt that James Buchanan was gay, before, during and after his four years in the White House. Moreover, the nation knew it, too — he was not far into the closet.

              Today, I know no historian who has studied the matter and thinks Buchanan was heterosexual. Fifteen years ago, historian John Howard, author of “Men Like That,” a pioneering study of queer culture in Mississippi, shared with me the key documents, including Buchanan’s May 13, 1844, letter to a Mrs. Roosevelt. Describing his deteriorating social life after his great love, William Rufus King, senator from Alabama, had moved to Paris to become our ambassador to France, Buchanan wrote:

              I am now “solitary and alone,” having no companion in the house with me. I have gone a wooing to several gentlemen, but have not succeeded with any one of them. I feel that it is not good for man to be alone; and should not be astonished to find myself married to some old maid who can nurse me when I am sick, provide good dinners for me when I am well, and not expect from me any very ardent or romantic affection.

              http://www.salon.com/...

              20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

              by jncca on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 11:12:54 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Right on (0+ / 0-)

          I would say Jefferson was almost certainly atheist, and he was pretty open about it too.  Although he never said "I am godless," he is on record numerous times criticizing the Bible and religion.

          Deism was basically an agnostic philosophy, acknowledging that there is some higher power in nature but rejecting most anecdotal or unreasonable parts of organized religion.

          •  I don't see any proof (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, MichaelNY

            Deism is not atheism, and he rewrote the Bible to suit his own preferences but left god in there.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 07:59:29 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Jews (9+ / 0-)

        get elected in all kinds of places.  Oregon.  Michigan.  California.  We don't need a natural base.  We have assimilated to the point where a lot of people don't even know we're Jewish.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:54:49 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  A Jew could become president (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV

        but s/he would have to be an American who happens to be Jewish, not someone who's any more identified with Israel than any average non-Jewish politician, for example. It would probably help, actually, if s/he is a bit more critical of Israel than the average American politician.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 05:28:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Why? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Did Barack Obama have to prove his anti-affirmative action bona fides?

          •  I mostly agree with you (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY, skibum59

            But I think it helped Obama a lot that he was cool and collected, about as far from the angry Black man stereotype as you can get.  That being said, anti-Semitic stereotypes relate more to money and power than support for Israel, and many of the people most likely to be anti-Semitic (the far right) are also pro-Israel, but for different reasons than most Jews are.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

            by jncca on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:35:17 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  No (0+ / 0-)

            And I had erroneously predicted that the first black president would be a conservative Republican, so maybe you shouldn't listen to my predictions. But at the very least, I think the first Jewish president couldn't be Orthodox and, like Kennedy, would have to convince Americans that s/he is for America first and will not take dictates from a foreign country (Vatican, Israel).

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 07:06:21 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Disagree strongly (5+ / 0-)

              First, most Americans are very modestly pro-Israel, and therefore would place no demands on an Jewish candidate somehow establishing he's not "too" pro-Israel.  I say "very modestly" because really most people don't give a shit.  Most who do are strongly pro-Israel, while a much smaller group who care a lot are more hostile toward the Israeli government.

              Second, we are well past the situation with Jews that Catholics faced in 1960.  There isn't nearly as much anti-semitism today as there was anti-Catholic sentiment in 1960.  And the fact that we just elected and reelected a liberal black guy from Chicago named Barack Hussein Obama, Junior renders "meh" the election later of a white Jew.

              Corrollary fun fact:  the "Junior" in Obama's name is the funniest damn part of his name, instantly transforming him from foreign/exotic to country hick.  In contrast, "Carl Levin" and "Steve Israel" are damned uneventful.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 08:10:59 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  You may be right (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                gabjoh, DCCyclone

                I wonder whether, just as many African-Americans were at first among the most doubtful that the US was ready to elect an African-American, many Jews will be the last to consider the election of a Jewish president likely. And I think many of us will wonder how desirable it would be. Because anything s/he does wrong, they will reason, will reflect badly on all of us.

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 08:57:28 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I think your fear is somewhat generational (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Chachy, gabjoh, sacman701

                  I think, if I recall correctly, you're at least as old as me and perhaps older, which means your life experience is dramatically different from Jews younger than me (I'm not Jewish, don't mean to imply otherwise with my phrasing there).  Jews are very very very culturally assimilated, and that they follow a different faith is largely dismissed with a shrug by most of today's voters.

                  One thing I think you're overlooking is how much the Christian right has been defanged by demographic shift.  One thing underreported in politics these days is that the population has gone from roughly 15ish% non-Christian to 25ish% since the 90s.  It was a very static low-to-mid-teens who called themselves non-Christian for many generations in America until very recently.  Most of the newly-identified non-Christians tend to be younger and identify with no established religion at all, with some very modest population growth among minority religions like Islam and Hinduism.

                  This fact has changed the culture because Christians are much more exposed to non-Christians of all types, including white men who they work with, play softball with, etc.  So that has the side effect of making being Jewish a non-issue.

                  The exception to the above cultural shift is that there still is a strong anti-Muslim streak, primarily because of 9/11 but also other terrorism by Islamic radicals.  It's unfortunate and unfair, Muslim-Americans today are in a similar position as East Asians in the mid-20th century.  But it is what it is, and won't get better perhaps for awhile.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 08:29:47 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I'm 48 (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    BeloitDem, DCCyclone

                    But I also am aware that not so long ago, quotas used to keep Jews out of Ivy League schools, and not long before that, Jewish refugees were barred from American shores and forced back to their deaths in Nazi-occupied Europe, and my grandfather was forced to pass for non-Jewish, with an assumed Italian name, to be able to get hired for a job he was overqualified for at anti-Semitic Bell Telephone in the 1930s. Jews have long memories that cause us to be concerned about getting too comfortable anywhere, because history tells us that our acceptance or even tolerance almost anywhere but Hindu India is temporary.

                    All that said, your points about the growth of non-Christian religions and irreligiosity are well taken.

                    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                    by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 11:46:06 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

              •  I think Obama is officially "II" not "Jr." (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera

                I think his official name is "Barack Hussein Obama II" rather than "Barack Hussein Obama, Jr." But I could be wrong.

    •  Mine (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      betelgeux, MichaelNY

      Female
      Hispanic
      Jewish
      Asian
      Under 40
      Over 70
      LGBT
      Atheist

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:37:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Order (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Female
      Hispanic
      Over 70
      Jewish
      non-straight
      Asian
      atheist
      over 40 (I don't think this one ever happens, and it is getting less and less likely as time goes on, give the way that society has changed in the last few decades)

    •  Answer~ (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      First President over 70 when first elected
      First female President
      First Hispanic President
      First openly non-straight President
      First openly atheist President
      First Asian President
      First Jewish President
      First President under 40 when first elected

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 08:09:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Order (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn

      First female president
      First Hispanic president
      First Asian president/First openly non-straight president (pick 'em on the order)
      First president over 70 when first elected
      First Jewish president
      First openly atheist president - maybe in 100 years
      First president under 40 when first elected - maybe never

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 05:24:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think for each, it matters less what the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      political minority is, but who the candidate is.

      10 years ago, who would have thought that the first Black president would come before all the rest? 8 years ago, I think one could have easily suspected such, but 2 years before, when Barack Obama was comparatively unknown, I probably would have expected a few things on that list before a Black president. Right now, I would not expect an asian president to come too soon. However, if Grace Meng ends up being the next Barack Obama at the 2016 convention...

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 07:37:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  late V-Day song (5+ / 0-)

    No news here.  But this is fucking awesome.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:25:14 PM PST

  •  The opening waltz from "The Godfather" (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, betelgeux

    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

    by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:25:35 PM PST

  •  California (6+ / 0-)

    The goal is to put an oil severance tax, the California Modernization and Economic Development Act, on the ballot in 2014.  It would generate around $2 billion per year for the state, under a 9.5% tax rate.  The tax rate is much lower than Alaska (25%) but higher than Texas (7.5%), the other two top oil states.

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

    by jncca on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:28:37 PM PST

  •  Here's my submission for song of the week (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, wu ming

    It's sort of an attempt at an anthem for the Lost Generation

    25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:39:20 PM PST

  •  Also, I just created and uploaded this file (11+ / 0-)

    To wikipedia. You can find it on the 113th Congress page.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    Kind of depressing.

    25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:40:14 PM PST

  •  NJ-Sen (4+ / 0-)

    I wouldn't be terribly upset with Booker, but he seems to be very "rah, rah, wall street!" And the last thing I want is both Holt and Pallone getting in and splitting the Progressive vote. I would prefer Holt get in as the progressive over Pallone, as he seems to be the more solidly liberal of the two. Plus, he is a rocket scientist and he was able to beat Watson in Jeapordy. We need those smarts in the Senate. Also, he'd be the first Quaker ever elected to the Senate (as far as I can tell; please correct me if I'm wrong).

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:51:27 PM PST

  •  MO-Sen 2016 (7+ / 0-)

    Roy Blunt is not nor was never terribly popular, and only won so big in 2010 because of Missouri's red lean and the massive Republican wave that year. I want Gov. Jay Nixon to run, which he very well might because his final term will end that year. If Hillary is our nominee that year and the Republicans nominate someone completely insane (such as Rand Paul), this race becomes lean pickup.

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 05:55:23 PM PST

    •  Your final sentence says it all (6+ / 0-)

      we really need a perfect storm (Nixon running, Republicans nominating a wingnut for pres) for us to be able to knock off Blunt. While he certainly isn't incredibly popular, he's not unpopular either and it's going to be very, very difficult to beat him with the Republican nominee likely carrying the state.

      All that aside, I would love to see Nixon run, the same goes with popular governors like Beshear in Kentucky or Bredesen in Tennessee or Henry in Oklahoma. They're clearly the strongest possible candidates we could field and even if they lose it would be nice to see them run, if only to force Republicans to A) shit their pants and B) spend money on defense.

      •  Hillary doesn't need to carry Missouri necessarily (4+ / 0-)

        for Nixon to win. She just needs to be competitive, say within 5-7 points of whoever Republicans nominate. The closest parallel I could see is the Senate election in 2000 also in Missouri, when popular Democratic governor Mel Carnahan ran against the only mildly popular Ashcroft, and he probably would have won if he had lived to election day (I still lol at the fact that Ashcroft lost to a dead guy in Missouri of all places). As for a perfect storm scenario pushing Nixon over the top, a parallel can be seen in Alaska in 2008, where Begich got a perfect storm (Democratic wave throughout the country, extremely damaged opponent, and a moderate profile) and just barely eked out a plurality win. So even though McCain carried the state by a large margin, Begich still won. So Hillary does not have to win Missouri for Nixon to win.

        Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

        by interstate73 on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 08:43:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think she does though (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca

          keep in mind that exactly zero scandal-free incumbents have lost while their party's nominee simultaneously won a majority in the state since 1994. The low info voters who turnout at much higher rates in presidential elections seem to be much more straight-ticket voting as of recently, and it's hard to see us winning MO-Pres unless Clinton is winning in an absolute landslide.

          Then you get to the fact that in Alaska in 2008 Stevens was indicted on several felony counts just a week before the election and even then, Begich, who represented about half the state as mayor, barely won.

          I think for Nixon to be able to knock off Blunt we'd basically have to see Blunt be no better than breakeven popularity, Democrats at breakeven or better popularity nationwide, and our presidential ticket get within about 1-2% of winning Missouri at best. I know this isn't some sort of absolute law on its own, but it just seems like it would be basically impossible for example for Nixon to have beaten Blunt had they both been running in 2012 with Romney easily carrying the state.

          However, Nixon would certainly have a good shot at an open seat and probably would have even kept it fairly close had he run in 2010 instead of Carnahan. We simply got unlucky with the national environment for a lot of seats that year. Had that map been up in 2008 I think we would have won Arkansas, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and maybe one of Kansas/Utah/North Dakota.

      •  Out of those Governors you mentioned (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, lordpet8, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        Nixon is the only one who can really win. Missouri is still competive for Dems to win a Senate seat and not a Governors seat.

        Chris Koster will be the most likely succosor to Jay Nixon, when he becomes term limited. This one of his ads from the fall

        And to think he was a Republican. Just a bummer that Montee couldnt get the LG spot, with Kinder having such bad headlines like he had. He never got more than 50% of the vote in all three of his races.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 08:47:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I wasn't (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, skibum59, MichaelNY

        that familiar with Henry and just looked him up.  He won re-election with over 60 percent of the vote.  How does someone as liberal, by Oklahoma standards (pro-choice, etc.) as Henry get that popular?

  •  Kansas-2 in 2014. And Missouri-Senate 2016. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    I'm getting serious about Kansas starting next week.   Full and half page ads are going to start running in all the college papers.

    It's time to make some noise in the state I grew up in that's being overrun with lunatics

    Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

    by Chris Reeves on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 06:23:26 PM PST

    •  Who even sees ads, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      let alone reads physical newspapers in College? I can't imagine that's going to have much of an impact, not that I can blame you for trying...

      •  Bwahahahah (5+ / 0-)

        I do get the point.   In the end, though, the thing with pulling out ads in a college newspaper is it's relatively cheap.  And you're not doing it thinking of a major impact, if you're doing that you're wasting your time.

        You do it because it's a big spend in a lot of college towns around the state and as a result, you get some follow up media that you aren't paying for.

        It's worked for me prior; it's a big part of how we managed to turn some tide on our state school board.

        You've got to work all the types as you can.   Large scale notices on major sports days in a collegiate gets discussion going, especially in a small state.

        Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

        by Chris Reeves on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 06:31:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I read the New York Times (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, lordpet8, MichaelNY

        Every day in college.

        25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 11:35:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  College Newspapers (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Have kind of a unique place because they end up in every classroom, and kids who sit and wait on classes to start tend to at least flick through them to find out campus events.  

          The internet works well, but when you're sitting in a classroom, it's easier to just grab it and look.

          Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

          by Chris Reeves on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 07:11:57 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  If you actually want to win a seat... (6+ / 0-)

      In Kansas, KS-03 is your better bet. Rep. Yoder is a schmuck, it's ancestrally Democratic, and it's swingy at the presidential level.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 06:35:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, we're on that one too (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        But national attention is focused there.   Nationals are going to invest money.

        I'm interested in District 2 because it has been prior held democrat and ZERO money from national went in.

        Plus, we have two candidates we really want to run.   I'd take either of them.  And neither of them will get national support.   So, if the war is going to have to come from in the state, I'll sign up for that one.

        Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

        by Chris Reeves on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 06:37:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  its actually the KS version of IL 10 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skibum59, MichaelNY

        it was represented by republicans for decades like Winn and Myers. When they nominated Snowbarger (who was a nut if I recall) it went dem. Moore though never won by huge margins outside of 06 and was the only dem in recent memory to hold the seat.

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 09:41:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  ancestrally Dem? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, MichaelNY

        Johnson County has been R for forever, and Wyandotte has been D for forever.  I don't see many Demosaurs.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 11:18:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Most of Kansas (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, lordpet8, MichaelNY

          is ancestrally R, as much of the South and many big cities are ancestrally D.

          In that specific district, Wyandotte County/Kansas City have a Democratic tradition, but more votes are cast in traditionally Republican Johnson County.  What keeps Dems more competitive there than most of the rest of the state is that many of the Johnson County voters tend toward the moderate/suburban type, and are willing to vote Democratic at times due to GOP Bible-thumping and infighting.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 04:35:18 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  We should contest both KS-2 and KS-3 (5+ / 0-)

      But KS-3 will be easier I think.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 11:34:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Agreed (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, MichaelNY

        I just favor contesting every one of them, KS-1, 2, 3 and 4.

        You may not win in 1 but it sure as hell deserves to be contested.   Even if you lose, someone there has to raise the issues.

        Gandhi's Seven Sins: Wealth without work; Pleasure without conscience; Knowledge without character; Commerce without morality; Science without humanity; Worship without sacrifice; Politics without principle

        by Chris Reeves on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 07:14:14 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  a warm body can make all the difference (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          tmservo433, MichaelNY, gabjoh

          if a scandal erupts or some random congresscritter decides to go skinny dipping.

          In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

          by lordpet8 on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 12:33:44 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  KS-02 May Be Easier (5+ / 0-)

        KS-02 got bluer in redistricting, taking in the half of Lawrence (liberal college town) it didn’t already include. And remember, Nancy Boyda won KS-02 in 2006, pre-redistricting, and Lynn "Great White Hope" Jenkins hasn’t done herself any favors by allying with the House Republican leadership.

        KS-03, meanwhile, shifted a few points to the right by losing Lawrence and taking in the much smaller, but much redder, Miami County (exurban Kansas City).

        Also, we’ve got a ton of potential candidates in KS-02, including several sitting state senators (Holland, Kelly) and state representatives (Melanie Meier is good, Bill Feuerborn may run, as might Ann Mah, who lost in 2012 by a dozen votes or so & is available), plus assorted county-level officeholders.

        In KS-03, meanwhile, we’ve only got 2 state representatives from Johnson County (the dominant county in the district and where the nominee must probably be from to win) who are both in their first term (Nancy Lusk) and one isn’t even 30 yet (Emily Perry). The respected Mayor Reardon from KCK is retiring, and we’ve maybe got one or two city councillors or small-suburb mayors in parts of JoCo, but basically our bench sucks.

        And sure, it’s great to contest KS-04 & KS-01 but there ain’t a snowball’s chance in Hell we’re going to win them in 2014.  

        Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

        by arealmc on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 11:15:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  IA-Gov, IA-Sen (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, LordMike, wu ming, abgin, MichaelNY

    are going to be my answer for the next 21 months, I think.

    Bruce Braley will have an easy path to the Democratic nomination in IA-Sen. Tom Vilsack confirmed what everyone already knew today: he's not running. 2010 Senate candidate Bob Krause won't run for Senate, may run for governor or in IA-03.

    I am convinced that Steve King won't run for Senate--he just needs Rove to back off so he can save face. Lo and behold, Governor Branstad is telling Rove to butt out of Iowa elections.

    Branstad's team came up with an absolutely brilliant list-building scheme. I wish Democrats had thought of it first.

    Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

    by desmoinesdem on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 06:30:22 PM PST

    •  I think he may (4+ / 0-)

      if his ego is big enough.  He's sure sounding like it.  At least Braley got in early to start off.

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 06:40:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  THere is one interesting variable in all of this.. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tommypaine, skibum59, lordpet8, MichaelNY

        Apparently, King owes Latham a big favor.  Latham declined to run in King's newly redrawn district, and King has been very appreciative of that.  So, that probably throws a big monkey wrench into the whole thing.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:28:22 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I am hoping (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, DCCyclone

          that Latham will stay out of the Senate race. He's not a hard-working, policy-oriented guy. He has a safe House seat and doesn't have to work hard, he chairs an Appropriations subcommittee, and he's probably going to be in the majority there for the decade.

          If Latham runs for the Senate, he has to give up his House seat and it's not 100 percent certain he would win the GOP primary or the general against Braley. If he wins the Senate seat, he has to do more statewide travel and will be low in seniority (and possibly in the minority too). I know Branstad and many others in the GOP establishment are leaning on Latham to run. I am just hoping he will say no.

          I agree with you that there's no way King would run against Latham in a primary.

          Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

          by desmoinesdem on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:50:41 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  just puffing himself up (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I think deep down, he knows the numbers don't add up for him. Getting fewer votes than Romney in IA-04 the same year Romney lost Iowa by 90,000 votes is not the profile of a guy who can win statewide. King is not stupid, he knows this.

        Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

        by desmoinesdem on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:52:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Ridiculously terrible article from Yahoo (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen

    I shouldn't be surprised, given the source, but still.

  •  Please motivat Ashley Judd to run. Rand Paul is (0+ / 0-)

    crazy with fear about this happening so it must be great.

    •  2016 will be the really good opportunity in KY (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      betelgeux, MichaelNY

      I think if Rand Paul runs for reelection we'll have a very good shot.  If he doesn't, it's an open seat, and we still have a pretty good chance.

    •  no no no no no. (13+ / 0-)

      I don't understand how anyone thinks she could possibly win.  This would be like the Republicans ran Michael Savage in California.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 08:03:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I am not reccing it for the comparison (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I am reccing it because you mentioned Michael Savage

      •  1) she has a better chance than nobody (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wu ming, askew, desmoinesdem

        2) I couldn't care less about her chances of winning.  This race being the national spotlight Senate race would be like a gift from the Gods.  Let's get every GOP Senate candidate having to agree with Mitch's position on mountaintop removal (or abortion rights or whatever).

        The mainstream Kentucky Republican agenda is not popular nationally, so lets's get them spouting this stuff in the media over and over and over.

        The GIOP can have this one state, which we aren't going to win anyway since no high profile Dem will run, and reap some benefits around the rest of the country.

        The only thing better would be if we could get the GOP to attack one of our southern candidates because they don't support big tobacco.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 12:28:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  to be honest (7+ / 0-)

          if you don't care about a candidate's chances of winning, I don't care about your opinion of the race.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 01:04:45 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

            •  It doesn't make any sense (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew, gabjoh

              So to you guys Alvin Greene was the same as running Vic Rawl?

              We should run candidates everywhere, even when we have only a tiny chance of winning.  Judd gives us a better chance than a some dude, but that hardly is the important part.  The chances of winning are small, so hardly the point.  We should get what benefit we can.

              Judd merely talking about running has already got the GOP spending money and picking at each other.  Elections are not individual simplistic acts.  They have consequences down the road and in other states.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 12:15:14 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  no, this is like if you were arguing that (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, DCCyclone, gabjoh

                Greene was the same as Rawl.  We are the ones arguing for the Rawl kind of candidate here.  Simply because one hasn't jumped in the race yet doesn't change that.  The election is 21 months away.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 04:00:53 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  You got your scorecard backwards (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  desmoinesdem

                  You are arguing no candidate is better than a high profile candidate likely to lose.

                  No one is disputing one of the state officeholders would be better, but there is zero evidence any of them are willing to make the run.  There would be no Judd talk at all if Conway or whoever was showing any interest.

                  You need to scroll up.  You are saying it doesn't matter who runs if we are unlikely to win.  Others of us are saying if one of the state officeholders, doesn't run, then Judd nationalalizing the race is good for the party overall, even if her chances of winning are as slim as a random state senator or some dude businessperson.

                  Judd won't run if a state officeholder does.  Period.  If by some miracle she does, well then you can make the point that Conway or Grimes or whoever is better, and no one will disagree.

                  Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                  by tommypaine on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 05:52:30 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  scroll up yourself (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    if you can find where in any of my comments I've ever said that

                    no candidate is better than a high profile candidate likely to lose.
                    or
                    it doesn't matter who runs if we are unlikely to win.
                    quote me on it.  If you can't, shut the hell up.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:00:05 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

          •  So McConnell should just not have a challenger (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            desmoinesdem

            then?  I don't get folks who hate on Judd, when she's the only Dem who seems to have the guts to even consider challenging McConnell.  

            How is Judd running worse than nobody running? It the latter I can guarantee McConnell will be re-elected.  

            Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and potential for a pipeline leak ecological disaster.

            by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 08:10:46 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  He didn't say that at all (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              He said that if you (or anyone) don't care about who wins the election, he doesn't care about what you (or anyone) have to say about said election.

              •  Judd would likely lose - so what? (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                askew, LordMike

                When there is nobody else willing to step up I think running a longer shot candidate is better than running no candidate at all.  

                It would be another thing if ALG or somebody else was running and folks were saying "I hope Judd wins the primary because eventhough she would have less shot at winning, she'd make the race more interesting".  

                But literally nobody else is showing any interest in the race.  So if it's Judd or nobody - isn't Judd running the better option, even if you fell she'd likely lose?

                Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and potential for a pipeline leak ecological disaster.

                by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 09:16:38 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Not only didn't I say that... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                askew

                you are presenting a really weird concept.  Why don't you care who we run for Wyoming Governor?  Why don't you care who we run for Senate in idaho?

                I don't care how small our candidates' chances are in these extremely unlikely races are, but I do care about how their candidacies can serve the party and the nation; how they can advance a progressive agenda; and a whole slew of other things.

                I care who wins.  I don't care if we only have a snowball's chance in hell in winning the Idaho Senate seat.  I care who runs and how they run and how the opposition reacts.  Why don't you?

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 12:26:26 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  We do care, more than you, (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, DCCyclone

                  because we actually care about getting someone who has a shot in hell of winning the race.

                  Your and JJ's commentary here really confirms for me the depth.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 04:08:13 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  LOL, what? (0+ / 0-)

                    You've spun around 180 degrees now.

                    We are arguing for the strongest candidate, not you.  Where is this "getting someone who has a shot in hell of winning the race" coming from?  

                    I'd like the strongest possible candidate to run.  Judd is better than Alvin Greene or Some Dude for the reasons listed above.  Grimes or Conway would be better, but they have not only no interest in running, but an anti-interest.  So some of us then are looking at our best possible options, rather than just giving up.

                    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                    by tommypaine on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 05:57:49 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  And the rest of us disagree (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Judd is worse than a generic some dude (not your Alvin Greene "I am unfit to hold any job let alone public office). A Kentucky some dude might be a moderate, but more importantly wouldn't stir McConnell into going nuclear on them and reminding every swing voter that the "DemmycRATS wanna take your money away!!111!" Judd would prove toxic in the coal regions that are the Democrats' base while a some dude would simply be irrelevant and local factors would drive turnout.

                      The last thing we want is to have had Judd cause us to lose the state House of Representatives while a some dude wouldn't have.

                      •  eh (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        askew

                        Judd might actually drive turnout up more among Dems who usually blow off midterms than among GOP voters. She isn't the type of symbolic bogeyman that marginal GOP voters would show up just to vote against. I'm skeptical that anyone who was going to vote anyway would vote Dem downballot with some dude but GOP downballot with Judd. How often do Senate candidates have negative coattails?

                        That said, I think some (pro-coal) dude would start the campaign with a better chance to win outright than Judd would. Judd has a higher floor but a lower ceiling.

                        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                        by sacman701 on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 08:16:24 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                •  Yeah, seriously (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, askew

                  To have the temerity to say that no candidate is better than a flawed candidate is ridiculous. I mean, yes, we don't have a chance at getting Utah (for example), but if some thought and effort is put into it, we can at least bring specific issues to the forefront in that state.

                  Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                  by Gygaxian on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 10:13:11 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  it's February 2013 (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              OGGoldy, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

              there's plenty of time for a real challenger to step forward.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 09:49:46 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Sure there is time (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike, askew

                But thus far everyone else is stepping backwards at best.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 12:19:16 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  same thing happened here in 08 (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  we had no candidate at this point, then all the 1st and 2nd tiers declined, we still got a candidate who was competitive.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 03:36:46 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  So what is it then you are saying? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    askew

                    A blue dog some dude quietly losing by 6% is better than a progressive who can gain national attention losing by 4% or 8% or whatever %?

                    If they are both going to lose, why do believe keeping this race quiet and blue doggy is better than shining a light on GOP support for mountaintop removal and other very conservative positions?

                    The Republicans are acting afraid of Judd.  They won't be afraid of whoever runs in Idaho.

                    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                    by tommypaine on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:05:08 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Judd won't lose by even close to single digits (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, gabjoh, Zack from the SFV

                      the simple fact that the coal regions, which are Democrats best region in local races, will vote heavily against her will ensure she loses by double digits. Her end result will probably be closer to a 20% loss like Obama's than 10%. There's zero reason to put up someone like that when McConnell clearly doesn't have 57-58% of the electorate approving of him.

                      I can understand running a well funded liberal in a place like South Carolina where we're going to get blown out by the same margin regardless and we might as well fight for our values, but running a liberal in a coal-heavy state is just foolish, let alone in a state where the incumbent is incredibly unpopular and we would be competitive with a serious candidate.

                    •  Br'er Rabbit acted afraid of the briar patch. (4+ / 0-)

                      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                      politicohen.com
                      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                      by jncca on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:36:15 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

            •  I can guarantee he'll be reelected either way (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, MichaelNY

              Judd can't beat him. She won't even come close. You cannot run a liberal carpetbagger in a deeply conservative state.

              Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

              by SaoMagnifico on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 01:22:17 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  So if that's the given, who do you want to run? (0+ / 0-)

                1) No one
                2) Alvin Greene
                3) Some Dude
                4) Judd

                James is making the point it doesn't matter.  If those are the choices, which would you pick.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:08:19 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  My ranking (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  1) Some Dude, although a former state legislator would be ideal because nobody better than that will run.
                  2) Judd
                  3) No One
                  4) Alvin Greene

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                  by jncca on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:37:20 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Nobody better than that has announced. (0+ / 0-)

                    It's still sort of early and we cannot pretend to know the inside stuff.  Remember 2011 when some people were saying how Scott Brown couldn't be beat and we were worried that nobody of substance would run.  We finally got somebody good early that fall.  He also had an intimidating account and fundraising (though not as much as McConnell, but still a lot), and with much better numbers than McConnell.  Not saying the situations are equal (not in the slightest), but just because nobody of the high tier has announced during the winter of 2013 doesn't mean none will run.

                    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

                    by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:42:29 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Agreed. (0+ / 0-)

                    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 07:32:27 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                •  No, our reasoning essentially goes as follows (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

                  1. 1st/2nd tier candidate (Beshear/Conway, etc.)
                  2. Some dude (random state legislator, etc.)
                  3. Unopposed
                  4. Judd
                  5. Alvin Greene type.

                  Some dude aka a Paul Sadler type of candidate, who while being a nobody, is a least much more representative of the local Democratic party, is preferable to running Judd.

                  Keep in mine we're probably not going to beat McConnell, and certainly won't without a strong candidate, so our strategy has to involve what will help us the most in holding the state House and gaining as many state Senate seats as possible. When we're debating between Judd and a nobody, only one of those will enrage McConnell votring conservatives and drive turnout among them up while driving turnout among conservative Democrats down while the some dude will have no effect.

                  •  I disagree that Unopposed is better than Judd (6+ / 0-)

                    It's always better to have someone on the ballot, provided they aren't a LaRouchie.

                    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                    by jncca on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:44:39 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I think Stephanie Herseth Sandlin might disagree (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, gabjoh

                      Democrats in South Dakota were incredibly relieved since no one would come out specifically to vote for Thune. In this case, no one would specifically come out to vote for McConnell and it would allow the state legislative races to be as localized as possible which is what we'll need to retain the chamber.

                      •  Democrats are less likely to vote than Republicans (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, gabjoh, askew

                        I think we'd prefer Judd motivating Democrats to come out than nobody at all doing it.  Especially since Democrats loathe McConnell so much that more than usual should turn out just to vote against him.

                        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                        politicohen.com
                        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

                        by jncca on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 07:32:24 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

      •  more like Dennis Miller (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, MichaelNY

        Reasonably well liked, good speaker, just a poor political fit. I don't think 2% of the non-dittohead public even knows who Savage is.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 08:08:42 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  What statement by Paul are you reacting to? (0+ / 0-)

      Besides, if he said that, it's probably a smart misdirection. Judd has 0% chance of beating McConnell, absolutely 0.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:23:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Looks like JJJ pled guilty to fraud... (0+ / 0-)

    Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

    by NMLib on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 07:51:03 PM PST

  •  AL-06: Bachus to be targeted again (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY

    Lol, what a joke.

    http://blog.al.com/...

  •  Weekend Music (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42

    The Band--Katie's Been Gone (1968)

    The Band--Just Another Whistle Stop (1970)

    The Band--Sleeping (1970)

    Van Morrison and The Band--4% Pantomime (1971)

    Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. (-9.50, -8.05) "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

    by betelgeux on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 10:53:30 PM PST

  •  question about gun politics (kind of) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    If I recall, John Hostettler around ten years ago brought a gun through security at an airport. Is there a reason why he wasn't charged? I had always thought that that was a misdemeanor or something. FWIW, he did run nine points behind Bush.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 11:49:36 PM PST

  •  Archer. (8+ / 0-)

    Has anyone noticed that Archer has really sophisticated political humor?

    The overall joke is that Archer takes place in a parallel universe where the Soviet Union never came apart.

    In one episode, they are talking about Operation Gladio after the end of the World War II:

    Malory Archer: It was a NATO stay-behind mission set up to counter a possible Soviet invasion of Western Europe.

    Lana Kane: But then it sort of turned into this whole weird crypto-fascist CIA shit-show starring Allen Dulles and a bunch of former Nazis.

    Malory Archer: Thanks, Holly Hindsight.

    In other episodes, there is equally funny humor with Malory as the arch-conservative, and Lana as the former animal-rights activist liberal.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 02:38:40 AM PST

  •  The Supreme Court. (9+ / 0-)

    It would be nice if Ginsburg and Breyer would retire before the 2014 elections. Now that we are seeing Republican filibuster Hagel with only 45 senate seats, it's clear now we even need to be cognizant of the balance of power in the Senate when considering Supreme Court retirements.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 05:15:12 AM PST

  •  Menendez: FBI has not found evidence to support (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, betelgeux

    the prostitute claim.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    www.buonoforgovernor.com

    by Paleo on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:17:31 AM PST

    •  Love the way they wrote the headline (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      At least online the link to click says "FBI investigating allegations Sen. Menendez patronized prostitutes in Dominican Republic"--something that is legal in and of itself, though the charges of them being underage and of the senator showing unethical favoritism for Dr. Salomon Melgen who allegedly provided the prostitutes of course would be major problems for him if true.

      But you have to read beneath the headline to find out that at least the prostitution angle of the Menendez situation has yielded nothing incriminating.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:29:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Actually No (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh
        something that is legal in and of itself
        It is illegal under U.S. law for U.S. citizens to engage in sex crimes worldwide that would be defined as illegal within our borders, which the FBI is given enforcement power on. Though that includes simple prostitution patronization, such actions are rarely prosecuted. However, when the allegations are deepened to include underage girls, they are almost always investigated and prosecuted if need be.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 12:05:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Saw this question posted on RRH (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, gabjoh, MichaelNY, betelgeux

    And I'm curios to see what the response is here: Who is your favorite all-time losing presidential candidate?

    Or, alternatively, if you could change the result of one presidential election, which would it be? For me, that's easy: 1896. As Vachel Lindsay wrote,

    Prairie avenger, mountain lion,
    Bryan, Bryan, Bryan, Bryan!

  •  I don't know if people have chewed over this (5+ / 0-)

    already, and I understand, the source is, well, you know. But this is utterly amazing:

    Even in an off-year election, 40% of those who rated their interest a “1” still voted
    (California, 2010).

    Unless we can find a more sophisticated way to figure out what 40% of the "1" voters will vote, polling is going to be broken.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 08:54:07 AM PST

    •  If you're willing to sit through a complete poll (12+ / 0-)

      it means your pretty engaged.  I mean if you didn't plan on voting why bother with the phone poll?

      Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and potential for a pipeline leak ecological disaster.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 09:29:20 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The pollsters and media somehow can't understand (5+ / 0-)

        Phone polls don't just take ten seconds.  And, people do in fact have the ability to hang up the phone.  The truly disinterested people hang the phone up.

        Even worse, likely voter screens dump "somewhat likely" voters.  The idea that you can get an accurate result while ignoring every single "somewhat likely" voter is some heavy-duty Kool-Aid to drink.

        If you look at some of the likely voter polls, the only thing that saved them is the people who hung up... normally only a relatively small percentage of people who finished the phone poll would say they were not "likely".

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 12:36:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Bingo, and importantly related to this is... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, gabjoh

        ...rock-bottom response rates that polls get now.

        Even a live-caller phone poll will be in the single-digits now in the response rate.  Robocalling is low single-digits.

        My view is that once you get that low, the only people sitting through the entire survey are certain voters, not just "likely" voters, and screening anyone out is probably a big mistake.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 08:27:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Personally satifying (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, gabjoh

      I was on staff on a campaign last cycle. POS was the opposition pollster. They consistently down about five among the "high interest voters" and in a dead heat among all voters.

      We won by more than 8.

      Dear POS,

      "Well, thanks for trying, but here I am anyway."

      IL-10 to IL-07 by way of -09, -17 and -18.

      by GaleForceBurg on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 07:09:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Isakson (R-GA): Sequester will probably happen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    He said that on CNN not too long ago, by the way.

    Not too sure as to whether or not that will cause a R or D wave year (if a wave year at all) come 2014...

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 10:29:17 AM PST

  •  I don't embed videos (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MetroGnome

    Because I find it terribly annoying when my phone bogs down when the thread is full of videos, but I figured to honor our favorite congressional candidate homonym, I should post this song.

    http://www.youtube.com/...

  •  MO8 Dem vote impending (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, jj32, MichaelNY

    meeting started at 1pm, the Q&A is going on now, and they'll be voting sometime this afternoon.

    67 Committeemembers will be voting, 34 votes needed for a nomination.

    The candidates are

    Markel Fitchpatrick, former mayor of Blodgett, Missouri (pop. 213)

    Steve Hodges of East Prairie, State Representative (2007-present) currently representing Mississippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot, and Scott Counties.

    Todd Mahn, a funeral home owner from De Soto (Jefferson County)

    So basically, it would be very stunning and counterproductive if anybody other than Hodges was nominated.

    Also, 2012 MO8 nominee Jack Rushin dropped out in the last day and State Rep Linda Black dropped out on Thursday, both in favor of Hodges, who declared a few days ago.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 11:57:07 AM PST

    •  Twitter accounts to follow (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, DCCyclone

      when it comes to the nomination

      @semissourian (Southeast Missourian)
      @ToddTumminia (KFVS reporter)

      And this live stream of the meeting might work sometime

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 12:02:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  vote results are in and (5+ / 0-)

      Hodges 39
      Mahn 27
      Fitchpatrick 2

      So State Rep Steve Hodges (D-East Prairie) has been nominated to face State Rep Jason Smith (R-Salem) in June for MO8

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 12:51:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  so in map form (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

        this is the district map with markers showing where each candidate lives (the Libertarian lives out of the district):

        http://imageshack.us/...

        and this is the deviation from the norm map for the 2012 results (meaning that the color is for the party that exceeded its overall showing by the most in this county):

        http://imageshack.us/...

        So Hodges represents 3 bootheel counties where the Dems got 29-36% in an election where their nominee won 24.5% (and ran about 9% behind Obama overall)

        Mahn is from Jefferson County (the only divided county), which went 57-39 for Emerson because this was the first time an Emerson was running in Jefferson county since JoAnn's husband Bill first ran in 1980. Linda Black is from St. Francois (just south of Jefferson) where the margin was 69-28. Typically Dems beat their average in the row of counties going from Ste. Genevieve in the NE down to Reynolds, and sometimes even Shannon or Oregon Counties for a line of counties from Illinois to Arkansas. Some of those counties are lead mining counties.

        I'm not really expecting Hodges to get too far past 40%, but considering that the Presidential result was around 66/32 in this district, 41-42% isn't terrible.

        Also, I don't know how well Obama fared in Hodges' district HD149. But Hodges defeated Neal Boyd (America's Got Talent Winner) by a 66-34 margin. So Hodges likely ran far far ahead of Obama in 2012. Hodges won 63.1% in New Madrid County as Obama was winning 38.8% there, for example.

        There's still a campaign to be had over the next 3 1/2 months.

        And here's the official state bio of Steve Hodges:

        Rep. Steve Hodges, Sr., a Democrat, represents New Madrid and parts of Mississippi and Pemiscot Counties,(District 149) in the Missouri House of Representatives. He was elected to the House in November 2006.

        In addition to his legislative duties, Rep. Hodges works as a substitute teacher. Previously he worked for 30 years as the owner and manager of a supermarket in East Prairie, Missouri.

        Rep. Hodges is a member of the United Methodist Church; the Chamber of Commerce; the Southeast Missouri State University Booster Board; the Jaycees; and the school board. He was named to the Who’s Who list for American Colleges and Universities during his time in college and received a Career Service Achievement Award from the Missouri State High School Activities Association.

        Rep. Hodges graduated from East Prairie High School. He received his B.S. in Business Administration from Southeast Missouri State University and his M.B.A. from the University of Missouri-Columbia.

        Born February 2, 1949 in Cape Girardeau, Rep. Hodges resides in East Prairie with his wife Amy where he enjoys reading, singing, playing golf and officiating football. They have three grown children: James, Andrew and Adam.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 01:17:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I'm surprised Missouri still has Democrats (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      representing rural areas of the state. I figured the state's lurch to the right would have wiped out all the rural Dems.

      •  They had like 5 more state reps before 2010 (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, James Allen, MichaelNY

        In that district. Tom Todd lost in 2010 and 2012 (believe legal action is still in occultation for the Todd/Hampton election in 2012). JC Kuessner was termed out and his seat went R. Joe Fallert ran for the Senate and lost. Terry Swinger ran for the Senate after being termed out. Maybe or two more I'm forgetting in JeffCo.

        The Ds are far more organized than the Rs in the bootheel. So Mississippi, New Madrid and Pemiscot went for the 7 candidates who won Missouri in 2012 (Claire/Nixon/Kander/Koster/Zweifel/Romney/Kinder)

        The Bootheel has cotton. The western end of the district has cattle ranching. There's lead mining too. And intertubing for for drunk college students too

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 02:28:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Posting (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Is anyone else having trouble posting comments from Google Chrome?

    Every time I've tried for the past 20 minutes or so, it instead redirects me to the DK home page. I've had to switch browsers to be able to comment.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 12:06:37 PM PST

  •  NJ-SEN, Lame Argument Edition. (4+ / 0-)

    I'm getting tired of TPM and its publication of vapidly contrarian arguments

    On what planet is "you are way too awesome to be considered for promotion" a valid argument?!

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 05:09:40 PM PST

  •  I did it with MD-Redistricting (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, redrelic17

    I got a map where Dutch keeps the Aberdeen Proving Ground like he wants, Sarbanes keeps Annapolis like he wants, Hoyer keeps College Park like he wants, and Edwards keeps a bit of Montgomery County (all of Silver Spring).  The 2nd and 3rd are over 58.5% Obama 2008, the 6th is 57.1% Obama 2008, and the 1st is 50.1% Obama 2008.  I did this all without giving any of Baltimore City  and Prince George's County to an Eastern Shore district.

    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

    by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 05:32:12 PM PST

  •  MI-Gov: Michigan residents hit hard by tax increas (11+ / 0-)

    Governor Snyder's first major accomplishment was pushing through a massive coporate tax cut - paid for mostly by taxing pensions and taking away deducations on middle and low income folks.  Well, the deducations have finally kicked in, and it looks like his reverse-Robin Hood is finally coming back to haunt him:

    In the height of tax season, don't be surprised if you owe more to the taxman in Lansing.

    Some major income tax changes approved 21 months ago by Gov. Rick Snyder and lawmakers are just now starting to hit Michigan taxpayers filing their state tax returns.

    One of the most significant adjustments: Homeowners and renters used to qualify for a credit if their household income was no more than $82,650 a year. Now they don't get it unless their total household resources are $50,000 or less and their home's taxable value (roughly half the market value) is no more than $135,000.

    That will affect about 400,000 returns.

    The child deduction is gone. So are special exemptions for seniors and those getting at least half their income from unemployment checks.

    A refundable credit for low-income workers was reduced, impacting about 783,000 returns. Eliminated are state credits for city income taxes, college tuition, adoptions and donations to universities, public radio and TV stations, food banks and homeless shelters.

    Add it up and about half of all Michigan filers are seeing a considerable tax increase ahead of the April 15 deadline, said Terry Conley, a tax partner at Grant Thornton in Southfield.

    I don't care what anyone says, this guy is in trouble in 2014 in this blue state regardless of his Democratic opponent.  He's going to have to fight for the job, this time.

    OT: This is probably the firs time it's taken me literal minutes to load a weekly open thread.  The amount of videos is killing my connection.

    •  yeah, seriously, everyone stop the videos (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, madmojo, gabjoh

      Unless they're political ads.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

      by jncca on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:38:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Agreed on both counts (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I have an iPhone and I'm not even going to bother trying to view this diary on it given all the embeded videos. I'm not complaining about you all contributing music to the weekend thread and if anything it's a welcome addition (if I didn't believe so strongly that our society was incredibly fucked up and that I had a moral obligation to help improve it through politics I would have assuredly been a professional musician), but in the future could you guys just link things rather than imbed?

      Also yes, I think Snyder is very vulnerable and I really want to see Gary Peters run for three reasons:
      1. I think he's our strongest candidate given his base in the populous and crucial Detroit suburbs (as opposed to Whitmer's Lansing and Schauer's Battle Creek which are both solid blue anyway).
      2. His district deserves someone who's a flaming liberal in line with how Democratic it is and how badly it needs someone whose singular goal is to be a workhorse and do the best they possibly can for that district. Peters is clearly going to run statewide at some point and no, this has nothing to do with race though it would certainly be nice to have someone who is black represent it given how underrepresented blacks are in Congress as a whole.
      3. Peters is clearly intent on running statewide at some point and I'd much rather him run for governor than senate (if Levin retires), where we can afford to nominate a dyed-in-the-wool liberal rather than someone who is fairly moderate by Democratic standards. Peters would at best vote as well as Levin does and we could easily elect someone slightly more liberal than Levin (particularly on Israel) so why the hell not? If Levin does retire I'd love to see Whitmer run to succeed him and Peters run against Snyder.

      •  I know (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, blueonyx

        I know folks here seem to love Peters, but I've never really liked him, and I think we could do better for a nominee.  I'd vote for him, no doubt, but only if there was unequivical proof in polling that'd be outrun our other choices.  I could understand the rushing to him were their polling showing us in dire straights, and perhaps by next year, there might be some.  Otherwise, trotting out Peters, now, seems overly careful and defeatist.  I need someone that can appeal to both the head and the heart.  Gary doesn't fire me up in the least.

      •  Yup (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I think Peters is our best nominee for Governor, and just like you said even if Levin retires, we don't have to nominate an A-list Democrat to run for this seat, even though Whitmer would be great for a senate run, the fact Michigan usually elects Democrats to the Senate, we could nominate somebody who's probably a B-lister like fmr state rep. Barb Byrum. Cause most of the Dems in Michigan's delegation are no spring chickens.

        NY-9/NJ-10; Russians can give you arms but only the United States can give you a solution. -- Anwar Sadat

        by BKGyptian89 on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 09:03:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  We could nominate a lower-tier candidate... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          ...such as Winnie Brinks, Lisa Brown, Barb Byrum, Brandon Dillon, Chris Savage, Denise Illtch, etc., and still be able to defeat Snyder as long as our nominee is able to run at least a halfway-decent campaign, although, of course, I'd prefer our nominee to give it their all on the campaign trail.

          It's interesting to note that Barb Byrum is actually following me on Twitter, by the way...she might be looking for help from out-of-state progressive bloggers, such as myself, for a possible gubernatorial run.

          Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

          by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 05:44:59 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Would Denise Ilitch really be lower-tier? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, DownstateDemocrat

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 06:03:04 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Come to think of it, no. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Wisconsin Democrats have two potential WI-Gov candidates who have never held elected office before and could probably self-fund much of their campaigns, Kevin Conroy and Deb Carey. Denise Ilitch would basically be a Michigan version of one of those two people if she mounted an MI-Gov run. I wouldn't consider anyone, regardless of party affiliation, that could self fund most or all of a statewide campaign to be lower-tier...after all, Ron Johnson (R) self-funded his campaign to defeat Russ Feingold (D) in the 2010 WI-Sen race.

              Chris Savage, the author of Eclectablog and one of the sharpest critics of Rick Snyder, on the other hand, truly would be a lower-tier candidate, as he's never held elected office before and can't self-fund a campaign.

              Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

              by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 08:11:30 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  looking at population growth by each decade (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    psychicpanda, madmojo, abgin

    what are the major factors one notice when looking at apportionment?

    1910s (hypothetical) - nothing out of the ordinary although one can see most of the rural states losing representation

    1920s - most of the south (minus FL TX and NC) losing a lot of people due to the boll weevil. A lot of the plains and interior western states losing representation too, presumably during farm crisis.

    1930s - very minimal population movement. Only notable factor is that most of the southern states didn't lose population that much as you'd think. Also, the beginning of Illinois's decline in representation

    1940s - the beginning of New York's loss in representation. Most of the rural south and midwest taking a massive hit.

    1950s - besides the obvious (sunbelt gaining a lot more representation) one can see the upland south losing representation

    1960s - no major trends here I can discover

    1970s - CA's population growth (while still gaining 2.77 seats) seemed to have temporarily slowed down. I also notice that this is when Texas's gain in congressional representation starts to accelerate. Georgia too begins to reverse its decades long slow population growth. I might also add that population growth in the interior west starts to accelerate. As for New York, they must have had to screw up big time to lose 5.31 seats. Lastly, this is where Connecticut, New Jersey, and Michigan's population growth dramatically decelerates. Maryland's isn't as obvious but it too levels off

    1980s - a lot of the upper Mississippi and great lakes states (IL, WI, IA, MI, IN) tend to have really suffered here in terms of losing representation.

    1990s - California's population growth dramatically slows down.

    2000s - nothing that catches my eye thus far.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:57:46 PM PST

  •  Papal conclave may be moved up (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY, Audrid, gabjoh, abgin

    The Vatican is now signaling it may hold the conclave to select the next pontiff sooner than 15 March. Story here.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 07:00:57 PM PST

  •  and MASen "news" from Fox "News": (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, itskevin

    Title of article: "With Brown out, Massachusetts Republicans still upbeat about special election"

    'They argue the dynamics that helped Republican Scott Brown win the 2010 special election for an open Senate seat have re-emerged for this summer’s race for Democratic Sen. John Kerry’s old seat.'

    (...)

    'State Republican Party spokesman Tim Buckley pointed out Tuesday that Election Day is June 25, so the campaigns will be less expensive than typical ones. '

    (...)

    'Republican strategist Rob Gray told FoxNews.com that special elections are generally a good opportunity for Massachusetts Republicans because of the lower turnout, which means less Democratic voters.'

    So basically if everybody forgets an election is held, the Republicans and their current unknown might win! (or as they call their unknowns, "fresh faces")

    They also claim that Markey being in DC since 1976 and Lynch being from Boston may doom them.

    They're upbeat!

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 08:16:06 PM PST

  •  Saturday Night News? (10+ / 0-)

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 08:23:23 PM PST

  •  IL-02 Hutchinson rumored to quit race (6+ / 0-)

    http://capitolfax.com/...

    I presume that is good news, although it may be remove the split for the pro-NRA vote between her and Halvorson, which would be bad news.

    Politico reported that the entire campaign is going via the air, which is not good news for our side, either.  You need a ground game in these primaries.  An air war alone isn't going to get the pro-Kelly base out.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 08:36:13 PM PST

    •  it's complex (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      the rumor is that Hutchinson will back Kelly, but I haven't really seen anything to make me think that Hutchinson's Senate district didn't have significant support for Halvorson.

      The drive from Hutchinson's house to Kelly's house is 4.1 miles (11 minutes). The drive from Hutchinson's house to Halvorson's is 7.3 miles (19 minutes). From Halvorson's to Kelly's, 9.1 miles (21 minutes). In other words, the 3 front runners live really close to each other in the suburbs. When Harris was running, that was a 4th candidate in that vicinity.

      So the Hutchinson vote of people who live around her may just fall into Kelly's lap. Hutchinson lives 1 block east of the State House district Kelly represented from 2003 to 2007.

      One wildcard is Anthony Beale, and how much support he could get in Chicago.

      But I think more Hutchinson votes will go Kelly than go Halvorson, purely based off where Hutchinson should be doing the strongest being so close to where Kelly's stronghold should be

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 09:11:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  This is really unexpected (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, LordMike, itskevin, geoneb, askew

      I think Halvorson has consolidated the (tiny) conservative vote here; Hutchinson was probably drawing from labor Democrats and splitting the black vote with Kelly.

      This leaves Kelly as the favorite, IMO.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 11:25:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  If guns were my only issue (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, itskevin

      (in either direction) I would not be voting Hutchinson; she's something of a middle ground. This benefits Kelly pretty unambiguously, IMO.

      (also sucks for me because i gotta change the ol' sig line again.)

      Vaccinate your child. Vaccinate yourself. | Pro-transit, pro-gun, anti-NRA young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote. | Hutchinson for IL-02!

      by gabjoh on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 11:51:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Bad news for Kelly, it looks like (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Most Hutchinson supporters would have Halvorson as their second preference due to the fact that both were perceived as "anti-Kelly" candidates. Kelly has been controlling the whole narrative of the campaign even before Bloomberg's SuperPAC got involved.

      Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

      by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 05:25:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Do you have some polling data on that? n/t (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        R30A

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 06:05:37 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I disagree... (12+ / 0-)

        Halvorsen's main hope was to split the African American vote.  Her very poor showing against Jesse Jackson, Jr. (who was even then known to have ethical problems and was running in a lot of territory new to him) in 2012 shows that she is unlikely to prevail in an essentially one-on-one race against an African American candidate.

        And I don't agree that being pro- or anti-Kelly was the whole narrative of the campaign. In January, polls showed Kelly in third place, behind both Halvorsen and Hutchinson.  Much of Hutchinson's remaining support was undoubtedly a residue of what she had back in the days when it seemed that she might be the most formidable African American competitor to Halvorsen.

        In any event, both the Tribune and Sun Times say Hutchinson will endorse Kelly, and if true that would certainly have some impact on her followers.

        If Halvorsen has any hope at all now, it has to be in a heavy Republican crossover vote.  

        •  That's exactly why Halvorson went on FOX News! (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY

          She's trying to win over people who usually vote in Republican primaries by getting them to pick a Democratic primary ballot and vote for Halvorson!

          Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

          by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 08:26:19 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The thing is, there aren't a lot of Republicans (5+ / 0-)

            in IL-2. Kelly could easily win a California style top 2 against Halverson.

          •  I wonder if this is why Toi got out... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, MichaelNY

            and endorsed Kelly.  Because Halvorson decided to try and win with Republican voters crossing over.  

            Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and potential for a pipeline leak ecological disaster.

            by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 10:06:39 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'm getting some "other shoe" smell (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, MichaelNY, R30A, skibum59

              It's not especially common for politicians to have sudden crises of altruism, let alone grand big-picture thinking of which they are not at the center, while hunkered down in the weeds of a campaign.

              Of course, it's possible Hutchinson saw what I would expect her to have seen: crashing internal polls, her favorability rating sliding, and Kelly and Halvorson moving into first and second place respectively. But Hutchinson wants to be a congresswoman so badly that she shoved the NRA into a closet for the sake of political expediency, which takes some nerve when they already have their hooks in you.

              I don't know. Chicago politics is not renowned for being particularly clean. I'm not accusing Hutchinson of doing anything wrong, as such, but there has to be more to this story that we may or may not ever know about for certain.

              Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

              by SaoMagnifico on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 10:21:21 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Hutchinson has indeed endorsed Kelly (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, MichaelNY, askew

          "Update 10:09 a.m. | Kelly’s campaign released a statement from Hutchinson including her endorsement.

          “'I am ending my campaign for Congress today and throwing my support behind Robin Kelly,' she wrote. 'I urge those who have been supporting me to now work hard for Robin over the next 9 days.'

          “'In the wake of horrendous gun related crimes all across our country, I agree with Robin that we need to stand together to fight gun violence, but Debbie Halvorson been wrong headed in her refusal to moderate her views on banning dangerous assault weapons,' she added."

          http://atr.rollcall.com/...

      •  That makes no sense (6+ / 0-)

        Halvorson's only chance at winning was a Steve Cohen-like plurality thanks to a split field. She's probably got a ceiling of about 30-35% of the vote. Black urban voters aren't going to go for the white NRA-A-rated woman from the exurbs.

    •  Another thing (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, Audrid

      Isn't it too late for Hutchinson's name to actually be taken off the ballot? If Hutchinson's name cannot be taken off the ballot, it wouldn't be completely out of the question (but highly unlikely) that Hutchinson may somehow be able to win the primary despite dropping out of the race late in the going.

      Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

      by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 05:31:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That situation has actually happened before... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, sapelcovits, Audrid

        ...in Illinois politics, believe it or not. In a race for Champaign County Circuit Clerk last year, Rick Winkel, the former Republican state senator from IL-SD-52, won the Republican primary against Stephanie Holderfield despite the fact that Winkel dropped out of the race after the deadline in which candidates can have their names removed from the ballot. Winkel declined the nomination, and there was a rather nasty fight within the Champaign County GOP as to who to slate as a replacement nominee, ultimately, Katie Malone Blakeman was slated as the replacement nominee over Holderfield and two other Republicans, and Blakeman went on to win the general election.

        Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

        by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 09:22:30 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Congratulations (5+ / 0-)

      Rep.-in-waiting Kelly.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 07:36:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  fun fact (7+ / 0-)

    El Paso County, CO, home of Colorado Springs, supported the marijuana legalization measure.

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

    by jncca on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 11:34:50 PM PST

  •  Countdown to Wagner Resignation. (6+ / 0-)

    Emory University president James Wagner published an article in which he praises the 3/5 compromise:

    "Pragmatic half-victories kept in view the higher aspiration of drawing the country more closely together."

    I can hardly believe he was so incredibly stupid to write this article. I believe he had been mentioned as a possible Democratic candidate for senate. Many obtuse people have defended him for praising the art of compromise. Of course, I think that the 3/5 compromise is more of an example of the evils of compromise. It's also a gross misinterpretation of history - slaveholders wanted slaves counted as people so that they could have increased representation in congress on the backs of non-voting slaves.

    This is all especially noteworthy because Emory was built with slave labor.

    http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

    by redrelic17 on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 05:29:28 AM PST

    •  That essay is incredible. (5+ / 0-)

      I would be dumbfounded and dismayed if an undergrad made that argument. It's not just politically dumb; it's transparently dumb as an argument.

      It's really remarkable how southern white elites can be so oblivious about this sort of thing, even at an academic institution like this. No self-awareness at all...

      •  He's not even a southerner! (5+ / 0-)

        Just an idiot.

        To pile irony upon irony, Wagner was making an argument to keep in place drastic cuts to liberal arts and language programs at Emory.

        Emory actually has managed to purge the good-old boy network from the administration. This is a problem with public and private universities across the country: clueless elite-educated professionals too incompetent to serve in big business are hired by equally wealthy and clueless boards of trustees for the explicit purpose of turning universities into corporations. See the University of Virginia as another example.

         

        http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

        by redrelic17 on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 10:17:09 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Sup Ct. Race: I donated to Fallone this week (5+ / 0-)

    and I hope that Daily Kos will do a fundraising blitz for him if he advances beyond the primary.  Clearly, he is the liberal favorite at this point.  Russ Feingold, Gwen Moore, and many of the labor unions have already endorsed him.  Patience Roggensack is DANGEROUS, and we need to get her off the court.  I would love to see the court flip back to a 4-3 liberal majority.  Kloppenberg's 7,000 vote loss out of 1.5 million cast two years ago destroyed be for about a month.  It would be nice to have a check on all the radical right wing legislation Walker et. al. are doing to the state.

    Do we think Fallone will advance over Megna?

    27, male, gay, living with and loving my partner of over 4 years in downtown Indianapolis (IN-7).

    by IndyLiberal on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 07:37:23 AM PST

  •  IL-2: Hutchinson officially out, endorses Kelly (8+ / 0-)

    Link to tweet from Kelly campaign.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 09:14:42 AM PST

  •  Another day, another John Sides article (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    http://washingtonpost.com/...

    Why does he get so much press?

    Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Daman09 on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 09:21:37 AM PST

    •  The Washington Post is a partisan newspaper (11+ / 0-)

      They just really like to choose Sides.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 10:07:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Seriously? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Stephen Wolf

      I mean, the gist of his argument is "Republicans would have won under the slightly more mild 2004-2010 gerrymanders, too!"

      He insists on "looking at alternatives," but refuses to take a hard look at what a court might have drawn.

    •  Ugh just no, this is all the same bullshit again (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      WisJohn, MichaelNY, econdem, Daman09, DCCyclone

      why the hell would he even waste as much space talking about the 2010 lines which were also heavily biased in favor of Republicans.

      It's like he just totally brushes aside the criticism that national non-partisan maps would have resulted in Democratic control last year in favor of "well, we just don't really know, but I'm going to draw this sweeping conclusion even though I haven't proved it."

      My/Our position might be wrong, we haven't proved it right yet, but Sides absolutely has not proved his theory right either.

      Just looking at the 2010 map though, how does he see us just winning 208? When I look at it seat by seat I can see us losing only 3 seats under a worst case scenario:
      KY-06 (just barely)
      AR-04 if Ross retired, if not we win
      OK-02 if Boren retired, if not we win

      Then I see us gaining these seats:
      AZ-01: Kirkpatrick (tossup)
      AR-01: Causey/Serious candidate
      AR-02: Serious Blue Dog candidate
      CA-45: Ruiz
      FL-08: Even Grayson would have won with his money
      FL-22: Frankel/Murphy
      FL-24: trended Dem, Adams not popular
      FL-25: Garcia
      IL-17: Bustos
      IN-09: Yoder (tossup)
      MI-01: McDowell
      MI-07: Schauer
      MI-11: Curson/someone serious
      MN-06: Graves
      MN-08: Nolan
      NC-02: Etheridge/someone else
      NE-02: Ewing (tossup)
      NH-01: Shea-Porter
      NH-02: Kuster
      NJ-03: Adler (tossup, maybe not)
      NV-03: Titus
      NY-09: Anyone would beat Turner
      NY-13: McMahon runs again
      NY-19: Maloney
      NY-25: Maffei
      OH-01: Driehaus/Mallory
      OH-06: Wilson
      OH-12/OH-15: one of the two (maybe OH-18)
      PA-06: Gerlach loses D+5 seat
      PA-07: Sestak/Lentz
      PA-11: Cartwright
      SC-05: (Mulvaney won by just 10 over nobody in a 2-3% better district)
      TX-23: Gallego
      TX-27: Vela or someone
      VA-02: Doesn't get triaged (tossup)
      WA-03: Heck (tossup)
      WA-08: DelBene
      WI-08: Lassa

      So let's say around a net gain of 30 to play it safe with some on the list. Does that seem reasonable to you guys? It seems like Democrats would have had an incredibly good shot at flipping the House even under the old map so even that part of Sides argument falls apart.

  •  So I just finished watching the first presidential (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf, WisJohn, KingofSpades

    election on West Wing. I alternated between being really engaged as an election nerd and going "Gah, no, it burns! Campaigns do not work that way!"

  •  Junior senator/senior senator (7+ / 0-)

    I remember we were arguing after then-Sen. Inouye died and now-Sen. Schatz was appointed as to whether Schatz's ascension to senior senator was the fastest ever and whether something like that had ever happened before.

    It has, actually -- in Alaska, Hawaii's fellow oddball. Then-Sen. Bob Bartlett, Alaska's senior senator, died on 11 December 1968 -- just over a month after Alaskans ousted then-Sen. Ernest Gruening (who was, incidentally, junior senator only by a matter of minutes, as he and Bartlett comprised Alaska's first senatorial duo after statehood), running as an independent after losing in the primary (sound familiar?).

    A young, ambitious state senator named Ted Stevens, who had been slapped back hard by the then-mayor of Anchorage in the Republican primary earlier that year for the right to take on Gruening, was appointed to fill Bartlett's seat on Christmas Eve 1968. He served alongside Gruening as junior senator for all of 10 days, leapfrogging then-Sen.-elect Mike Gravel in seniority.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 10:16:25 AM PST

  •  What's in a name? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, betelgeux

    Hillairious SNL clip from 2008. I die every time I watch it.

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.00, -3.13, Coya shouldn't have been sent home.

    by WisJohn on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 11:58:49 AM PST

  •  Voting Rights Act at Risk (7+ / 0-)

    I recommend this Rollcall article. It's a very good read and gives background behind how we got to where we are today.

    My opinion is that what Congress should have done is to extend Section 5 to the entire country. Republicans in states not previously known as hotbeds of Jim Crow, like Pennsylvania, have tried their best to suppress black voting. Now is no time to weaken the Voting Rights Act. And yet those who are prepared to predict a Supreme Court ruling think that's exactly what will happen. But do read the article.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 12:01:03 PM PST

    •  interesting quote... (6+ / 0-)
      Georgia Republican Lynn Westmoreland, who had proposed an amendment that would ease preclearance procedures for his and other states, said at the time that though it might have looked as if “some old boys from the South” were trying to do away with the civil rights law, they were actually trying to save it. “These old boys are trying to make it constitutional enough that it will withstand the scrutiny of the Supreme Court,” he told The New York Times.
      I never in a million years would have thought that was an ingenuous quote. And yet...
    •  this is why Leahy and Conyers should have proposed (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      this type of legislation back in 2009 and 2010. Essentially ban states from enacting certain types of legislation.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 08:33:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Strange polling experience (6+ / 0-)

    I got a call from "Central Marketing" a few minutes ago. I was asked for by name. After asking whether I was over 18 and registered to vote, and whether any members of my household (what household?) work for government or the media, I was asked whether I was certain to vote for the primary for State Assembly in 2014. I said I can't answer that question because I don't know if there will be a primary. I further said that there was no primary last year, so I couldn't vote in one. The questioner then thanked me for my time and ended the call.

    Just who does their client think they're going to get who knows whether there will be a State Assembly primary in this district in 2014? Whatever polling data they will get will be worthless, with such a ridiculous screen.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 12:04:28 PM PST

    •  Almost certainly a campaign poll... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ...if they asked for you by name.  That's registration-based sampling, not random digit dialing.

      And assuming you live in a Democratic district and you're a registered Democrat (assumptions I make based on your past random comments suggesting you're in Manhattan), I would guess the campaign is a prospective challenger to the incumbent.

      But the caller dropped the ball a little quickly IMO.  You're correct that they would get bad data based on the screen.  They'd do better to find a way to include someone like you who is aware of the local political situation, since that should be true of many primary voters for a state legislative race.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 07:43:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The poller was incompetent, too (0+ / 0-)

        He wasn't able to do anything but refer to his script. I said "Do you know whether there will be an Assembly primary in 2014?" He ignored the question.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 08:07:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Rubio and immigration reform (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, jj32, MichaelNY, askew

    This DK diary on Rubio seems pretty spot-on.

    If Rubio is going to be a contender for the GOP nomination, he's going to have to abandon his own bill. I am predicting he will do so, beating a full on retreat as opposition from the right continues to mount. He will blame President Obama for his retreat, accusing the President of 'amnesty' while running away from his own bill.

    *   *   *

    Now that USA Today has reported the outlines of President Obama's immigration reform bill, Senator Rubio has done exactly as predicted...

    Once again, I still say Rubio just doesn't know what he's doing in his run for president. This would be the last thing he wants to distinguish himself on, but he's allowed the GOP establishment to use his ethnicity for their own purposes. That made it clear to me, more than anything else, that the establishment doesn't really take him seriously.

    I would say that Rubio has no chance at the republican nomination if he successfully shepherds immigration reform through the Senate. I would say that - except I said the same thing about Romney, the godfather of Obamacare, winning the Republican nomination in 2012.
    •  I think the difference is (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, bumiputera

      2016 will have stronger candidates than 2012.

      So why go with Rubio and his "amnesty" bill when the GOP can go with a real conservative like Jindal. That will be the argument many on the right make, I imagine.

      •  Yeah, that's my thinking too. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY

        I'm just loathe to predict the attitudes and motivations of the republican primary electorate...

        It still baffles me that no generic non-crazy/idiotic conservative jumped in the race in 2012. The nomination was there for the taking, for a John Thune or like just a generic southern Republican senator - Cornyn or whoever... I guess Pawlenty was that sort of a figure, but he bailed so early; probably didn't really have his heart in it.

    •  I argue the exact opposite with regard to... (6+ / 0-)

      ...Rubio's overall chances of becoming President.

      I agree that Rubio's chances of getting the nomination drop considerably if he votes for a path for citizenship, which is the real key to the whole thing, the one thing the wingnuts oppose truly strongly.  Rubio probably could vote for legalized residence with conditions to meet but no path to citizenship and convince the wingnuts not to punish him.

      But I've said here before multiple times that Rubio is in a box because in addition to the above problem, he's also screwed if he doesn't vote for a bill with a path to citizenship.  That's because he loses a primary argument for his candidacy, that he's Hispanic and can win over Hispanic voters.  Now that he's jumped into the middle of this legislation, he must deliver or be deemed as having betrayed Hispanics, and he can't argue anymore that he can sell the GOP to Hispanic voters.  That hurts his chances at the GOP nomination perhaps no less than voting for a path to citizenship, and it destroys his chances to win in November because he'll do as badly as Romney with people of color.

      So the diarist is ultimately mistaken, he's looking only at half the equation.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 12:45:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Especially as a member of the Cuban-American community, which is essentially immune from issues with immigration policy, he could seriously alienate non-Florida hispanics and might would do as poorly with them as Romney, if not worse - especially if Clinton were his opponent, and even more especially if immigration reform is ultimately scuttled by another round of white racial panic (which at the moment I think is the most likely outcome).

    •  Who the hell leaked the "Plan B"? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      Was it on purpose to give the Senate Bill cover?  Or did somebody leak it to hurt the process and the President?  

      Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and potential for a pipeline leak ecological disaster.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 12:46:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, it is gives cover for the Senate GOP (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, jncca, MichaelNY, DCCyclone, skibum59

        Republicans, especially Rubio, cant just quietly put together a immigration bill that the president agrees with.

        They need to stand up to the president on border security to placate the right. Even though, of course, the president largely agrees there will be more border security measures in the final bill.

        So here is there chance to "fight" the president's bill and create one that is better.

        •  If that was the WH calculation... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, MichaelNY, itskevin

          ...then it's brilliant.  It really is.  I didn't consider that.

          Honestly, I'm skeptical they play politics that way.  I tend to think they'd more likely just try to stay out of Rubio's and other Republicans' way as a way of preventing them from being damaged.  Actually giving them a target to shoot at to help themselves with their own base is a little too cute by half.

          But if they did that, it's not bad.  It wouldn't really hurt the legislation since it probably would be understood on the Hill, or leaked privately, that this is a game and not meant to step on what the Gang of 8 is doing.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 07:45:54 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  New York: Democrat Recchia to Challenge Grimm (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, KingofSpades, abgin, betelgeux

    Another Rollcall article you'll be interested in. Key points:

    Recchia lives in Brooklyn, which could make winning over voters on Staten Island — which makes up the majority of the district — more difficult.

    And he might face a primary: Former Rep. Michael E. McMahon, a Democrat, told CQ Roll Call last month that he was also considering a bid against Grimm.

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 12:14:11 PM PST

  •  WATN? (6+ / 0-)

    Dale Peterson doesn't give a rip about shoplifting laws: http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/...

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 03:06:41 PM PST

  •  More political problems with Ryan's new budget? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, WisJohn, KingofSpades, DCCyclone

    Josh Marshall highlights an interesting quote from Rep. Mike Simpson(R-ID).

    Ryan's new budget proposal will balance the budget in ten years, as opposed to the 20+ in his previous budgets. That was a concession to conservatives to get the debt ceiling hike through the House.

    That likely means even sharper cuts to domestic spending and entitlements, since I doubt Ryan is going to concede anything on defense spending cuts or tax revenues. As Simpson points out, that possibly means people over 55 are going to be affected by the new budget, a problem for reps like him who have been selling the Ryan budget for a few years as not affecting those over 55.

    It will be interesting to see how Ryan gets around this problem. Previously, I think GOP opposition to his budget was mainly from the right(Amash, Huelskamp, etc). It will be interesting to see if more "moderate" reps(for example, Tom Latham), oppose this year's budget.  

    •  Will depend on how well he hid all of it... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      And how much of a stink the Dems can make out of it.  His last budget didn't hurt him a lick in the Presidential.  He just lied his ass off and people bought it.  

      Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and potential for a pipeline leak ecological disaster.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 05:18:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I don't think the attack didn't work at all. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, LordMike

        I have to imagine it resonated with some, like people nearing retirement who are below the cutoff age to name one.  But I guess that's what the exit polls are for and I think they said that they trusted Obama more on medicare/social security than Romney.

        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

        by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 06:25:16 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Senate Dems will have a budget this year (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, LordMike

        I think that will be one difference.

        For better or worse, the House budget(GOP) and the Senate budget(Dem) will get compared and contrasted a lot.

    •  I hope that the Dems' line pivots (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      to raise fire over the bait-and-switch going on with 55+ benefits should this go through.

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 06:26:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  could care less what Ryan puts on his fantasy (0+ / 0-)

      budgets. None of that shit is gonna pass the senate let alone be signed by Obama.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 08:31:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  My main concern right now (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skibum59, abgin

    is revitalizing the Utah Democratic Party. I'm convinced we could do better and win in a lot more places than we currently do. Like San Juan County, for example. We could have at least one state senator and state representative from there; it's only got 15,000 people, and a majority are Native Americans. We could easily get progressive fighters from that area. We just haven't tried.

    Or West Valley City; sure we've got a (single) representative from there, but we could basically turn it into another Salt Lake City if we tried. West Valley is as diverse as SLC (if not more so), with most of the minorities there being amenable to Democratic politics. The only prominent minority in either city that I could consider a "swing" minority is Polynesians (mostly Tongans), because of their LDS faith (and thus the pressure to be conservative), but the main problem is that the minorities aren't mobilized. In fact, they're not mobilized throughout the state; the only minority that is mobilized is the (mostly Mexican) Latino minority! And the Latino vote is part of what saved the only two Democratic victories in Utah (Matheson, Ben McAdams). So a focus on West Valley (which has many white liberals as well) could empower Utah Dems a lot.

    Another point of focus would be finding wedge issues to publicize and hammer the Utah GOP with; my favorite is the food tax. Apparently this year, the GOP-controlled State Senate wanted to reverse Governor Huntsman's decrease to the food tax; from 1.75% back up to 4.75%. Pretty regressive, especially for a state like Utah where big families that eat a lot is the norm. Thankfully, the Republican House Speaker went "Uh, no", but they might not be so reasonable in the future.

    My thought is that the Democrats could campaign on eliminating the food tax entirely, or at least on halving it again. Perfect wedge issue for anti-tax Utahns. They could even promote a tax on resource extraction to pay for the food tax cut.

    Another issue the Democrats are actually currently pushing (that's getting lots of attention) is air quality. The state GOP are doing nothing to address it, but the Dems have been strong on addressing the crappy air.

    My problem is that I have all these ideas, but I haven't had the opportunity to bring my vision to the state party (besides posting on their FB page). I can't drive, so that hampers my ability.

    Sorry for the rambling post, I'm just thinking over things I've been frustrated over for a long time.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 07:57:41 PM PST

  •  Richard Mourdock: a gift that keeps on giving? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    http://www.politico.com/...

    His cluelessness is perhaps only exceeded by that of his supporters.  Because caring about rape victims is "liberal media" bias?

    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 08:00:51 PM PST

  •  AR-LEG: Republicans move ahead on Voter ID (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY
    •  Arkansas is one of those states (0+ / 0-)

      that needs approval from the DOJ on any changes to its state's voting laws because of the VRA, right?

      "My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world." -Jack Layton (1950-2011)

      by Coco Usagi on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 10:05:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nope, unfortunately (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Coco Usagi

        Section 5 covers the deep south (Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina), Texas, Arizona, Alaska, the vast majority of Virginia, substantial parts of North Carolina, and a smattering of counties and local jurisdictions in other states (Florida, California, NYC, South Dakota).

        •  That's weird (0+ / 0-)

          Arkansas had just as bad a record of Jim Crow and segregation as any other Southern state, didn't it?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Mon Feb 18, 2013 at 11:55:28 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes, but maybe they moved fast willingly? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, jncca

            Arkansas has never had as large a black percentage in its population as other states in the Deep South.  So it's possible that whites there were less threatened politically and less resistant to allow voting rights?

            I did some cursory digging and found that Republican Governor Winthrop Rockefeller relied on black votes for his two election wins in the 60s.  He actively campaigned to them.

            It's weird that Rockefellers have been Governors of three separate radically different states.  The last of them still in high office today, in the twilight of his career.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Mon Feb 18, 2013 at 08:35:06 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  It does say in the article (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        that there's no appropriation vehicle for this bill and they said that if the SoS couldn't find the funds, it couldn't be put into effect.

        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

        by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 10:14:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  MTP (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, KingofSpades, askew, MichaelNY

    I try to never catch it but it is rerunning now and I've got to say, it seems the 2 constants are Carly Fiorina and John McCain.

    I'll leave the angry grandpa alone for today and just pose this question: are the booking producers/David Gregory the last people on the face of this planet that think Carly Fiorina, a woman who almost bankrupted a great American company and then spent millions of her own money to lose disastrously in a wave year, is relevant to AN political or policy discourse in this country except to examine failed candidates to public office.

    23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Feb 18, 2013 at 01:18:26 AM PST

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