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After last November's elections provided us with a trove of new elections data, I am finally able to revive my series on the political geography of the states that I first started last year. In it, I wanted to get a feel for how local Democrats perform in statewide or local elections and how that varies from Obama's 2012 performance. Given how counties are by far the easiest unit to find election data for in various states, I will be looking at how statewide candidates do on a state by state basis by county.

For every state, I've compiled all of the statewide, partisan D vs. R races since 2006 and averaged the results (excluding presidentials) to give you an idea of how a generic local Democrat will do on average, assuming a 50-50 race statewide so that even in heavily Democratic or Republican states you can see which areas are relatively more friendly to each party. Using this average Partisan Voter Index (PVI) where the state as a whole is Even, counties where the vote share is more Dem than the state are D+ and those that are more Republican are R+. Additionally, I've mapped out how Obama's 2012 map looks different than how an average Dem does who won or lost by the same margin. Finally, since the 2012 House of Representatives results are almost always presented by the district map, I've mapped out both the results themselves by county as well as by how much the House candidates ran ahead of or behind Obama in 2012.

All of the partisan percentages were calculated using two-party vote share only so as to have the most direct comparison between races. All of the data was taken directly from the relevant state's board of elections or equivalent office. You can find it for download by state here. (Please let me know if you find any errors)

Using the Census Bureau's division of the United States into four general regions, Part 1 covers the West, Part 2 the Midwest, Part 3 the Northeast, and Part 4 the South. Part 5 will look at the US as a whole, specifically the US House of Representatives election from 2012.

Part 1 includes: Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming (Alaska being excluded since it does not have counties or easily obtainable data other than statewide).

So follow me over the fold for the partisan average charts, a little analysis, and a whole lot of maps.

Arizona


 photo AZCountyData2012B_zpsbf4b72c8.png

 photo AZ2006-2012AveragePVI_zpsdb927e3a.png

Arizona is a fairly conservative states, but it is open to voting for Democrats as it did in 2006 for governor and attorney general and nearly did last year for senate. While Maricopa County, home to the Phoenix metro area, is by far the largest in the state, Democrats don't actually have to win it to succeed statewide. Instead, they rely on the heavily Hispanic border counties, heavily Native American northeast of the state, Tuscon and urban Phoenix itself, and "Pinto Democrat" counties such as Greenlee that tend to vote Republican for president but Democratic downballot. Republicans rely on their strength among white rural voters and the white, upscale suburbs of the sprawling Phoenix metropolitan area.

 photo AZObamavsAverage2012_zpsa6f9f7e6.png

Compared to the average, Obama does better in the more minority heavy counties as well as those with large urban centers like Phoenix. On the other hand, he pretty universally does worse in the primarily white rural counties. This trend is fairly universal as a general rule, especially since many states like Arizona hold all of their downballot elections during midterms when groups like minority voters turnout at disproportionately lower rates.

 photo AZbyHouseVote2012_zpscc4bae49.png

 photo AZbyHouseVote-Obama2012_zps4217e9c6.png

In terms of House votes, all five of our Dems ran ahead of Obama while all 4 Republicans ran ahead of Romney. For the swing district Dems this is unsurprising given that they're fairly moderate, but you can also see the Romney/Dem discrepancy fairly clearly in rural, eastern Arizona.

California


 photo CACountyData2012p1_zpscb0172f5.png
 photo CACountyData2012p2_zps520c050c.png

 photo CA2006-2012AveragePVI_zps1b8df840.png

California has been trending towards Democrats downballot for a long time now and thanks to unabated minority growth it should continue to do so for the foreseeable future. In fact, many of these pink and light orange counties go for Democrats with regularity, but in a generic 50-50 election in the state, such as Kamala Harris' nail-biter Attorney General Election in 2010, we see a map like this one.  Democrats' absolutely dominate in the Bay Area of Norther California and the norcal coast in general. In addition, they can count on heavily minority Los Angeles County and recently on heavily Hispanic Imperial County as well. Republicans, on the other hand, do very well in parts of Southern California such as Orange County as well as the rural areas of inland California, though thanks to minority growth the Central Valley is trending towards Dems.

 photo CAObamavsAverage2012_zpsb3f5efb3.png

Compared with the presidential map, there is little difference in performance by county in Southern California and most of the Bay Area in particular, though Obama certainly overperformed in the more minority heavy parts of Southern California such as south-central L.A. or Anaheim in Orange County. The largest divergence is by far in inland Northern California, where Obama does much worse than the typical Dem winning 60% of the vote such as Dianne Feinstein.

 photo CAbyHouseVote2012_zpsc6a1137e.png

 photo CAbyHouseVote-Obama2012_zpsd28e64c3.png

Be careful here, as California's odd quirk of the top two primary, which sends the 1st and 2nd place plurality winners into the general election regardless of party, resulted in several contests in which two Democrats or two Republicans were the only House Candidates on the ballot. This is particularly problematic when looking at Southern California and the eastern Bay Area, but there's really no solution when trying to present the data by county as opposed to the congressional districts.

Still, you can pretty clearly see the power of incumbency if you look carefully enough as incumbents outperformed their presidential nominee in particular along the entire coast and much of Southern California. Of particular note is how the two open seats in northeastern California and and the southern Central Valley show how ticket splitting and candidate quality matter. In the former, the underfunded Dem still ran ahead of Obama, while in the latter, a terrible candidate ran significantly behind.

Colorado


 photo COCountyData2012p1_zps6d9fbb14.png
 photo COCountyData2012p2_zps35a6bcd3.png

 photo CO2006-2012AveragePVI_zpscfe3031c.png

This Colorado map looks fairly similar to the 2012 election outcome in that it demonstrates the Democratic path to victory lies in forming what is referred to as "the C"; that incomplete ring of counties stretching from Denver to Boulder, the Ski Counties of the western slope, and down to the heavily Hispanic counties in southern Colorado home to cities like Pueblo. Republican strength lies in the further suburbs of Denver in places like Douglas County and heavily Republican, but slowly Dem trending Colorado Springs, as well as the sparsely populated but ultra-red counties in the far east and west of the state. The swing regions are the three counties surrounding Denver as well as places like Larimer County, home to Fort Collins.

 photo COObamavsAverage2012_zpsbe34e536.png

Unlike in 2008 when Obama overperformed fairly significantly in the state's urban areas, here the divergence is less pronounced with him performing about as expected in the top and left part of "the C." However, Obama unsurprisingly underperformed a good deal in the rural far east and west of the state, but surprisingly underperformed in the heavily Hispanic counties in the south of the state. Without being able to look at the precinct level, it's impossible to say exactly why this happened in counties such as Pueblo and whether it was a result of the Hispanics there not being eligible to vote or whether Obama simply underperformed so much in those counties' rural areas that it overwhelmed his strength among urban minorities.

 photo CObyHouseVote2012_zps0775ed34.png

 photo CObyHouseVote-Obama2012_zps436e1460.png

In terms of the House vote, Democrats would have won the state's popular vote had we contested the heavily Republican 5th district in the center of the state and/or Dem turned Indie Kathy Polhemus not run a spoiler campaign in the 6th district. Surprising to me was that Sal Pace in the 3rd district, rather than overperforming Obama actually lagged behind him despite local Democrats generally doing better than Obama in western Colorado. Unsurprisingly, Dems tended to run behind the president in the suburban counties around Denver.

Hawaii


 photo HICountyData2012_zpsaace497c.png

 photo HI2006-2012AveragePVI_zps61fc5b1d.png

There isn't really much to present with Hawaii since it only has 4 true counties, Obama massively overperformed how Democrats do in open seats, and it's a state that tends to give incumbents huge wins. The state is already very heavily Democratic, in fact Democrats control 24 of the state's 25 state senate districts. However, Democrats tend to exceed their statewide margin in Kauai, Maui, and the big island of Hawaii while almost always running behind it in Honolulu.

 photo HIObamavsAverage2012_zpsf4eb017b.png

 photo HIbyHouseVote2012_zpsf840a78d.png

 photo HIbyHouseVote-Obama2012_zps136ca98b.png

In terms of the House vote, Tulsi Gabbard ran significantly ahead of the president which was completely unsurprising given her opponent was a homeless man. On the other hand, Colleen Hanabusa underperformed Obama by the most of any incumbent in the nation thanks to facing Hawaii Republicans strongest possible candidate in former Rep. Charles Djou and Obama's native son boost. Since Honolulu County (the island of O'ahu) was split between the two districts, this is somewhat obscured.

Idaho


 photo IDCountyData2012_zps777f491a.png

 photo ID2006-2012AveragePVI_zps3d1ce9b7.png

Idaho is one of the most conservative and Republican friendly states in the nation, but once in a blue moon it will elect a Democrat or at least flirt with one.  Democrats tend to do best in the northern panhandle which was once a bastion of Dem strength thanks to the logging industry. Additionally, they do well in the few large urban areas like Boise and Ski Resort counties such as Blaine. Republicans tend to dominate the more heavily Mormon areas in the southeast of the state as well as the suburbs/cities west of Boise.

 photo IDObamavsAverage2012_zps01b4ebc8.png

Given how Idaho is the most Mormon heavy state after Utah, it should be totally unsurprising that Romney ran very strongly there, particularly in the Mormon dominated southeast. Obama held up much better in Dem trending and growing Boise.

 photo IDbyHouseVote2012_zpsd9b8f2d7.png

 photo IDbyHouseVote-Obama2012_zps8bc730c8.png

Characteristic of a heavily Republican state, the two House incumbents absolutely destroyed their token Democratic opposition, but you can clearly see ticket splitting among the Mormon dominated southeast as well as the more extraction-industry based panhandle.

Montana


 photo MTCountyData2012p1_zps8df973b6.png
 photo MTCountyData2012p2_zps9ce1d86c.png

 photo MT2006-2012AveragePVI_zpsf29f8507.png

Democrats actually have done very well at winning statewide offices in Montana recently, having won every single one other than US House and Attorney General in last year's election. Democrats tend to rely on the state's urban areas as well as the counties with Native American reservations, while Republicans tend to rack up huge margins in the very rural counties, particularly in eastern Montana.

 photo MTObamavsAverage2012_zps7d0699e5.png

Obama lost considerable ground in Montana compared to his near win in 2008, but he held up much better in the state's cities, Native American reservations, and Western Montana in general than he did in the East and rural areas in particular.

 photo MTbyHouseVote2012_zps1b6420ca.png

 photo MTbyHouseVote-Obama2012_zps2cd219b9.png

 photo MTbySenateVote-Obama2012_zps00559d15.png

We can see this Obama/local Dem divergence fairly clearly when looking at the state's two elections for Congress, the House election where our candidate ran slightly ahead of Obama statewide but varying by county, and our senate election where incumbent senator Jon Tester ran significantly ahead of Obama in every single county, partly thanks to a Libertarian spoiler. Unsurprisingly, the Dem base in the state is again the urban areas and Native American reservations, though both Tester and our House nominee Gillan ran ahead of Obama by more in the more rural counties.

Nevada


 photo NVCountyData2012_zps81340c06.png

 photo NV2006-2012AveragePVI_zps3a01e10b.png

The Democratic path to victory in Nevada lies in winning just one county, but don't be fooled, Clark County comprises the overwhelming majority of the state.  However, Dems still have to keep the Republican margins down in Washoe County, home to Reno, and Carson City if not hope to win them outright as Obama did in 2008. Republicans tend to dominate the sparsely populated rural areas of the state as well as some of the whiter Las Vegas suburbs in Clark County.

 photo NVObamavsAverage2012_zps2939cabd.png

Obama proved quite resilient in Nevada despite it having one of the worst unemployment rates in the nation and Las Vagas being one of the cities worst hit by the housing bubble. In fact, he held up much better there thanks to its growing minority population than he did in the largely white rural counties. Unlike 2008, Obama performed about as expected and lagged behind in Carson City, which he had won in 2008 for the first time since Lyndon Johnson did in 1964, but lost last year.

 photo NVbyHouseVote2012_zps65403a99.png

 photo NVbyHouseVote-Obama2012_zps4a6ceda8.png

Our house candidates in Nevada only carried Clark County since our 2nd district (Reno) nominee was a total some dude. Unfortunately 3rd district nominee and former state assembly speaker John Oceguera proved to be a bit of a dud and when looking at the counties, Obama ran ahead of the house candidates in every single county.

New Mexico


 photo NMCountyData2012_zpsa7e29a65.png

 photo NM2006-2012AveragePVI_zps8e62f79f.png

Democrats tend to dominate New Mexico's elections in anything other than a 2010 style wave. Their path to victory relies on the state's large and growing minority population, in particular the heavily Hispanic areas of North-Central New Mexico and the large Native American population in northwestern New Mexico. Additionally, Democrats tend to do very well in cities such as Albuquerque and Las Cruces. Republicans do best in the more rural areas of southern and eastern New Mexico as well as the heavily white suburbs of northern and eastern Albuquerque.

 photo NMObamavsAverage2012_zps8cfd1ccb.png

With Obama's resilience among minority voters, it is unsurprising that he does comparatively better in the heavily Hispanic and Native American counties, while he underperforms fairly significantly in the whiter areas of the state, particularly in southeastern New Mexico which shares some cultural similarities with the ultra-Republican Texas Panhandle that it borders.

 photo NMbyHouseVote2012_zps852eb9fc.png

 photo NMbyHouseVote-Obama2012_zps40ce54fe.png

Looking at the two House maps you can clearly see the effect of incumbency. Democrats ran ahead of Obama in all but one county in the two districts we won while hard right Republican Steve Pearce ran significantly ahead of Romney in every single county in his district, even carrying some of the same counties that Obama won.

Oregon


 photo ORCountyData2012_zpsa06b15e5.png

 photo OR2006-2012AveragePVI_zps7de67ff1.png

Oregon is a solidly Democratic state, even if Democrats don't always win by huge margins, Republicans haven't won a statewide election there since 2002. The Democratic path to victory relies on racking up massive margins in Portland as well as college towns like Eugene. Democrats increasingly do well in the Portland suburb counties of Washington and Clackamas which are the main battleground counties in the state. Republicans have their base in rural eastern and southern Oregon and are doing increasingly better along the southern coast.

 photo ORObamavsAverage2012_zpsaf7b279b.png

Oregon was completely uncontested in the presidential election, but unsurprisingly Obama holds up best in the state's cities and suburban areas while performing worse than average in the more rural counties.

 photo ORbyHouseVote2012_zps0bc8baa5.png

 photo ORbyHouseVote-Obama2012_zps27bc5c49.png

Even better than New Mexico, the House election in Oregon demonstrates just how much of an advantage incumbents have. Every single county with a Democratic incumbent saw that Representative win with a greater margin than Obama while every single county contained in Republicans sole district saw popular Rep. Greg Walden run significantly ahead of Romney and even carry Hood River County while Obama won over 60% of the vote there. Going forward, all 5 of the state's congress members should be safe even during a wave election.

Utah


 photo UTCountyData2012_zpse9afa4f9.png

 photo UT2006-2012AveragePVI_zpsa522ccac.png

Utah is one of the most heavily Republican states in the nation and was Romney's best state thanks to its population being majority Mormon.  Howver, there are patches of blue such as Salt Lake City proper which is actually strongly Democratic. In addition to Salt Lake City and some of its suburbs, Democrats actually win places with ski resorts like Summit County and typically hold their loss margins down in the state's southeast.

 photo UTObamavsAverage2012_zps9b21126d.png

Obama underperformed nearly everywhere in Utah thanks to Romney's native son boost, but that underperformance wasn't the same everywhere. Obama held up much better in southeastern Utah and the Dem base in Salt Lake City while lagging the most in the states dark red counties in the center of the state (and most likely its redder suburbs in Salt Lake County).

 photo UTbyHouseVote2012_zps6d208f5d.png

 photo UTbyHouseVote-Obama2012_zpsbf021f26.png

As should be completely unsurprising, our mormon US House candidates ran significantly ahead of Obama with the state's lone Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson running an incredible 19% ahead of Obama with nearly 1 in 3 Romney voters splitting their ticket for him. Even our sacrificial lamb candidates ran significantly ahead of Obama though, illustrating just how much of Romney's margin was due to his native son effect.

Washington


 photo WACountyData2012_zps2ec5a795.png

 photo WA2006-2012AveragePVI_zpsff91f30d.png

Like its neighbor Oregon, Washington state has fairly similar political preferences. Democrats do best in the state's largest city of Seattle and tend to do very well in all of the counties west of the Cascade Mountain range. Republicans to best in the more rural and agriculture based counties east of the Cascades as well as heavily rural Lewis county in the state's southwest. Republicans also do fairly well in some of the more upscale Seattle suburbs in eastern King County and are increasingly doing better in the southwest of the state, home to some of Portland's suburbs in Clark County.

 photo WAObamavsAverage2012_zps001fd24d.png

Again similar to Oregon, Obama held up best in Seattle and the more ruban areas around the Puget Sound. He did comparatively worse in the more rural areas of southern and eastern Washington though he dropped by a fairly surprising amount in counties such as Clark, in contrast to Portland's other suburban counties.

 photo WAbyHouseVote2012_zps3ba58cb9.png

 photo WAbyHouseVote-Obama2012_zps8a20a24d.png

Demonstrating the power of incumbency, every county completely contained in a district represented by a Democratic incumbent saw that county go Democratic while the same was true for the counties represented by a Republican incumbent.  However, the House Democratic ticket generally ran behind Obama, particularly in the state's east and south as well as the eastern King County suburbs represented by former King County sheriff Rep. Dave Reichert. On the other hand, Democrats ran ahead of Obama in a few of the Sound counties, but generally matched his performance.

Wyoming


 photo WYCountyData2012_zps260595aa.png

 photo WY2006-2012AveragePVI_zpsac4a497c.png

The final state we get to is Wyoming, which is likely the most Republican state in the nation after Utah. Though it actually elected a Democratic governor in 2006, Republicans have won every other statewide election since and usually by commanding margins, thus the map we see above generally never happens except in rare cases like the nail-biter 2006 House Race. Democrats do comparatively better in the south and center of the state as well as Teton County, the lone one won by Obama, in the northwest. Similar to Montana and Colorado, Republicans do best in the state's east where the Great Plains meet the Rockies.

 photo WYObamavsAverage2012_zps840b65a5.png

Wyoming has a fairly sizable Mormon population, though not as large as Utah or Idaho. As such Obama underperforms considerably in the southwest which borders Utah but holds up well in the state's northwest and southeast and held on to win Teton county again by a fairly decent margin.

 photo WYbyHouseVote2012_zpsbbc62ef3.png

 photo WYbyHouseVote-Obama2012_zps4b2753c2.png

Unlike in 2006 and 2008, the House election last year was an absolute rout for incumbent Rep. Cynthia Lummis over her token challenger, however even she couldn't win Teton County thanks to Obama's coattails. Still, she did significantly better than Romney in the northwest and southeast of the state, while doing about the same in the more Mormon southwest.

Conclusion


I hope you have enjoyed reading this (somewhat lengthy) first installment of the series and next week should hopefully see the next part on the states of the Midwest and Great Plains.

Originally posted to Stephen Wolf on Thu Feb 14, 2013 at 12:57 PM PST.

Also republished by Baja Arizona Kossacks and Community Spotlight.

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Comment Preferences

  •  I'll read the whole thing in depth later... (5+ / 0-)

    But I do have some commentary on New Mexico, statewide the best general dynamic is that Republicans largely dominate southern New Mexico (outside of Las Cruces), Democrats dominate northern New Mexico, and Democrats have a solid, though not insurmountable, advantage in Bernalillo County.

    Albuquerque, for what it's worth, has the same but reversed dynamic; east and west are less important than north and south. If you map out Bernalillo County into four separate quadrants, roughly using I-25 and I-40 as your borders, Northeast Albuquerque is by far the most Republican (in 2008 Obama won 51-47), then comes Northwest Albuquerque (59-39), Southeast Albuquerque (68-31), and finally Southwest Albuquerque (75-24).

    Otherwise, I think you nailed New Mexico pretty well.

    Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

    by NMLib on Thu Feb 14, 2013 at 02:20:17 PM PST

    •  I will read it more indepth latter too. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aunt Pat, Stephen Wolf

      Very nice work on this thread by the OP.  I can't wait for the Midwest verison.  It will be cool to see eastern Iowa and western Illinois and Wisconin represented blue.

      I also look forward to the old confederate states to  my disgust.

      •  i think you may be surprised. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf

        "I also look forward to the old confederate states to  my disgust."

        virginia and north carolina are both trending (congress & white house) purple/blue. part of the that is attributable to an increasing minority presence in both, part due to an increase in more educated/liberal white presence in the population centers. not to say that minorities aren't educated, just using that as way to sever rural, lesser educated whites (who seem to be a homogenous republican mass), from their more educated, urban/suburban bretheran.

        •  not sure about these states (0+ / 0-)

          But can say for my own state (MN) that in fact these less educated whites are not homogenous at all.  Most are not engaged at all and are suspicious at best of politics.  Between that and the lack of information sources (the radio dial issue), they are harder to reach but far from impossible.

          The point of view is a touch more libertarian and they are pretty turned off by what they perceive (sometimes accurately imho) as urban elitism towards them, but they can come out surprisingly strong left, especially with regard to the environment, the banking system, and speech issues.

          Just my two cents, I really feel part of this demo is a forgotten left constituency.  Ed Schultz (also MN) does a good job with some of this.

          Most people say that what some people say is pretty stupid.

          by nullspace on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 11:04:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  a request (0+ / 0-)

    since i'm doing Senate over/underperformances as part of a diary series, can you not include them in your future diaries?

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Thu Feb 14, 2013 at 03:35:03 PM PST

  •  Some more 411 on The 702 (& 775) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf

    Overall, you're correct about the concentration of Nevada Democrats' strength in Clark County. I'll just add that at this point, Clark has a stable Democratic lean. Even as Brian Sandoval was romping everywhere else in NV-Gov 2010, he only squeaked past Rory Reid 49-47 here in Clark. Other than Sandoval, Brian Krolicki was the only other statewide Republican to win Clark in 2010 (and that was because the Dem running against him for LG was a Reno City Council Member who was unfamiliar to the vast majority of voters here).

    Washoe, OTOH, is more prone to ticket splitting. That's where we saw the lion's share of "Obama-Heller voters" last year. And because the Democratic bench is still weak at the local level there (as they've been accustomed to voting Republican down-ballot), it will take a while to build up the party brand there.

    The overall trend is still great for Democrats here. As long as the state continues to become more urban and diverse, Democrats will have a high floor statewide while Republicans struggle with a lower ceiling. Dems just have to keep the strong field machine... And work some more on making inroads in Washoe County.

    •  It would have been really interesting to see (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      NMLib, atdnext, elfling

      what Clark looked like at the precinct level this year, since overall it trended Republican just relative to 2008, but that almost has to be solely due to the rural areas and whiter suburbs. I can't imagine Obama falling much if any in places like North Las Vegas. I have a hunch that 2008 was somewhat of a blip in that the west lurched left that year by more than it "should" have and that we'll see Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico resume their trend Dem in 2016 after a mild slide this year. The states aren't getting any whiter and the younger generations of voters in all three are wildly more Democratic than older cohorts of the same demographic groups, if polling is to be believed.

      I had considered doing the precinct level maps again like I did last year, but the data is getting kind of stale since it's 2008 president and DRA rather annoyingly included house races for Nevada and a few others which totally distorts the partisan average, even when every seat is open such as New Mexico 2008.

      •  Yes, it is. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf

        Just look at the Pres-by-CD numbers. There are more swing voters here in NV-03, so it's more elastic... And Romney made up ground among older, richer white voters here. NV-04, however, roughly remained D+3 as Obama remained strong in the urban part of the district. And Obama actually GAINED ground in NV-01, home to the urban core of Clark County.

        Trust me, there's no long-term GOP trend here. If anything, the opposite remains true. Especially as Clark becomes minority-majority, Democrats will be fine here in the south.

  •  AZ (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf, elfling, atdnext

    Switch the demographic numbers on Yavapai and Yuma. Yavapai is mostly white, Yuma heavily Hispanic.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Thu Feb 14, 2013 at 04:34:01 PM PST

  •  Hill county, Montana (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf, ramesh

    Anyone have any idea why Hill county is relatively Dem-friendly?

    I understand why Missoula county, and Deer Lodge + Silver Bow (Butte) counties, would be strongly Dem, and why the counties with dominant Native American populations would be, but whence the blue lean of Hill county?

    The Native American population, while sizable, doesn't really explain it, when you compare other counties with similar Native American minorities. There's a sizable population of Norwegian descent, which can be correlated with left-leaning political tendencies (eg northeastern Minnesota, if I'm correct), but the Norwegian population in neighbouring, more Republican counties is in the same ballpark.

    I looked it up and Hill county is home of the town of Havre .. but there's counties with larger towns that have nowhere near the same blue lean.

    I loved the tidbit about the panhandle of Idaho having been ancestrally Democrat because of the logging industry, by the way! Did not know that.

    •  Ease of voting? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      While the Native American population may not numerically explain the Dem lean, I think it plays a very key role. Virtually all of the Native American live within 3 miles of a polling location, as do residents of Havre (while I don't know much specifically about the town, it seems like a normal MT city with a strong social structure. I assume virtually everywhere else is conservative, but ~2500 of the remaining residents are farmers, many of whom live ~25 miles from polling locations via dirt roads. While I have no idea of the road conditions in the mountainous reservation, I doubt they're much worse, and they're much shorter.

      ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

      by GoUBears on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 04:30:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Looking forward to reading this...but a minor quip (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf

    It's hard to quickly interpret the sliding Red Scale in the county maps for Republican performance. Could that be amended? To me, 6-8% doesn't appear to be at a lower performance than 8-10%, or 10-15%. The Blue scale looks perfect.

     Thanks!

    •  Yes this is a problem I'm unfortunately aware of (0+ / 0-)

      I tried a more traditional scale with just shades of red but it also didn't look nearly as neat, but it's hard for me to tell since I'm so used to these colors (they're from a set on the app I used to color the states). When I used the shades of red the overall colors looked neater as a whole but it was really difficult (for me at least) to quickly tell the difference between two adjacent shades, so while this one might be less intuitive it provides a much better contrast.

  •  Amazing! Phenomenal resource! Thank you! nt (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf, DaNang65, SuWho
  •  Whew! That was a lot to digest but kinda fun (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DaNang65, Stephen Wolf, atdnext

    I was surprised to see that Alameda county in California was Obama's top margin, and it was kind of impressive to see Romney getting more than 91% of the vote in a county in Utah. :-)

    Fry, don't be a hero! It's not covered by our health plan!

    by elfling on Thu Feb 14, 2013 at 10:51:12 PM PST

  •  Word usage nit (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf

    Should be "absolute rout" not "route", in the WY-AL writeup.

    Great diary, really enjoyed it.

  •  I just have one request (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Marcus Graly, Stephen Wolf, atdnext

    When you get to New England, please make these maps based on towns rather than counties. Especially in southern New England, counties are meaningless, and towns better show the the diversity of each area and how they vote. Using counties would obscure the fact that New Canaan, Darien, and Greenwich all swung heavily to Romney while Bridgeport (whose population is greater than those three towns combined) swung to Obama. Also, Texas has more counties than Connecticut has towns, so it's not like there would be too many towns (the only place where this might be the case is Maine, but towns illustrate things better there as well).

    (-8.38, -4.72), CT-02 (home), ME-01 (college) "The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one." -Spock

    by ProudNewEnglander on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 08:47:01 AM PST

    •  +10 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stephen Wolf

      Our counties are so large and diverse they are almost useless in making political distinctions.  Furthermore, they're mere geographic designations that have no role on government.

    •  One step ahead of you (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      atdnext, Inoljt

      I did not only the towns and counties but also the congressional districts. I may or may not do Maine though since, while it's easy to get the town level data, DRA doesn't label towns the way CT, MA, and NH has so far at at 433 (IIRC) that would take a good while to color it manually. So far I've been using the awesome color by .csv function to alphabetize the counties/towns and it's saved a ton of time.

      Unfortunately I'm still trying to find data for Massachussets which puts hardly any data below the statewide level on it's SoS site and many of the town election sites are a joke. Some of the data sets I've gotten from others don't match the vote totals statewide from the SoS, so I'll probably have to just revisit that state at some point...

      I have yet to get to Rhode Island and Vermont, but I'm not anticipating any problems at this point.

  •  Arizona (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf, atdnext, SuWho

    Arizona politics baffle me. It's one of the most urban states in the country, it's outside the south, it has a fairly large minority population... and yet it seems to be trending R. In particular, the whites seem to be moving towards the republicans in a way that they aren't anywhere outside of the south and greater Appalachia. Especially strange since, again, it's such an urban state - i.e., it's mostly Phoenix - and cities elsewhere are pretty much all trending D. And then there's the Joe Arpaio phenomenon... So what gives? Are Arizona whites especially racist? Why?

    •  Is it really all that urban though, rather than (4+ / 0-)

      Suburban? Suburbanites are historically much more Republican leaning though now a swing constituency nationally. Also Arizona is a retiree destination so I'd have to imagine that whites skew much older there than most states. Do we know if whites there are Protestant to a large degree? They tend to be fairly Republican compared to Catholics. Lastly, Arizona whites have a fairly sizable proportion of Mormons who tend to be both ultra Republican and high turnout.

      •  You're onto something. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf, leftreborn, Alibguy

        I wouldn't say Arizona is trending Republican, more that a Democratic trend has been harder to take root there. Obama actually remained flat overall there, which means it trended slightly Dem from 2008 to 2012. Still, it wasn't as much as I and others were hoping for.

        There are various reasons why Republicans have fared better in Arizona than in neighboring Southwest states (with the one obvious exception of Utah). For one, I believe Arizona has the largest % of retirees of any state. Also, Arizona's largest metro area (Phoenix) has a large outer ring of "Blood Red" suburbs filled with those very retirees and/or LDS heavy communities.

        Also, you can't ignore the weakness of the Arizona Democratic Party. Really, what's there? Even though Arizona has a slightly higher % of Latin@s than Nevada, Latin@ turnout was higher here. And even thougj Phoenix is a much bigger city than Las Vegas, Vegas seems to have a much stronger Democratic base AND Democratic bench of local electeds.

        •  Sadly, I think if Gabby Giffords hadn't been shot (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          leftreborn, James Allen

          she would be in the senate right now. Rich Carmona had never run for elected office before had no natural base in the state like Giffords' 8th district, slightly outspent Flake when taking 3rd party groups into account, and lost by just 3% while Obama lost by 9%.

          Giffords staffers had clearly indicated she intended to run for senate if Kyl retired and she would have gotten in early, cleared the field, and raised a lot more money than Carmona.

          It may take a generation rather than a few cycles, but eventually demographics will result in Arizona following the trend of the rest of the southwest.

          •  It almost seems as if there's a taboo on this (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Stephen Wolf, skibum59

            topic.  There was a buzz developing about Giffords' chance for statewide office before she was shot.  We don't have many Democrats in Arizona who can succeed statewide.  She fit the  mold.  Instead we ended up with Jeff Flake who I believe is a decent man, though I disagree emphatically with almost all of his voting record in the House.  Like some other Republicans did as a bipartisan gesture, he accompanied a Democrat at the 2012 State of the Union.  His date was Giffords. Very soon after, he assisted her to the podium when she announced her resignation from the House.  

            I wrote to Jeff recently. I asked him to remember holding Giffords hand, and to reflect whether he'd have a Senate seat if not for the shooting. I told him I respect the example he set for Republicans with Giffords, and that I expect him to remember her when gun safety legislation comes to a vote in a Senate.

            "Democracy is a life; and involves continual struggle." ---'Fighting Bob' LaFollette

            by leftreborn on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 01:13:10 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  urban vs. suburban (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf

        Not sure that this is a significant distinction. Maricopa County has had very suburban-style development patterns,  which is because, in a nation full of terrible anti-urban development policies, Maricopa has some of the worst; building densely is essentially illegal there.

        But that just means that as a "city" Pheonix is more suburban in character - in other words, people who would be living in street-fronting apartment buildings or other multi-unit buildings in other cities are compelled to live in detached single family or low-rise apartment buildings. But why would that fact affect voting behavior?

        And anyways, the general pattern of suburban development holds throughout the Sunbelt, yet that hasn't stopped other urban areas from trending blue - Los Angeles, notably; but also places like Charlotte, Raleigh, Austin, San Antonio, Atlanta, Northern Virginia... even Tucson, for that matter.

  •  comment on a few Oregon counties (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf

    Hood River looks the way it does in comparing the house to Obama performance because 1) it is trending Democratic and Obama exaggerated that trend and 2) it is where Greg Walden lives, which he represented in the state legislature before being in the house, and I believe his father did too.  He's the only Republican at the federal or statewide level the county would vote for, though it is represented by Republicans in the state legislature.

    Linn, Douglas, Curry and Coos counties in OR-04 are all ancestrally more Democratic and so are all more likely to vote for a more traditional Democrat like DeFazio than for Obama anyway.  It's really a good district for someone like him.  However, IIRC at least Coos, Douglas and Linn all seemed when I last looked to have declining numbers of votes cast in presidential elections, and I think Linn and Douglas also have significant declining numbers of registered voters, so as they become more Republican they aren't changing things that much because of their declining share of the vote.

    One last comment on Linn and also rural and small town areas in Clackamas and Marion counties, which are the rural eastern side of the Willamette Valley, versus Yamhill, Polk, and Benton which are the western side of the Willamette Valley.  Nearly every legislative district in the latter is trending Democratic.  The legislative districts in the former region are all trending Republican.  It's an interesting divide that I have no explanation for.  Oh, except that it might be because the latter are growing and the former don't seem to be.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 12:44:42 PM PST

  •  So lonely people vote republican? (0+ / 0-)

    Not to oversimplify this amazing job of demographic analysis and wonderfully researched diary. But - is it just me, or can you pretty much predict republican voting based on population sparsity?

    •  Not necessarily (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, Chachy, jncca

      While yes it's true that rural voters tend to vote fairly strongly Republican as a whole, keep in mind that even states like Montana, Idaho, and Utah are fairly urban. Their rural areas, while geographically very large, have very few people in them while their cities make up a huge proportion of the population yet are fairly compact.

      In contrast you have states like Maine and Vermont that are fairly rural or small-town yet vote pretty heavily Democratic, then you have states like West Virginia which are relatively rural or small town and vote heavily Republican presidentially, but heavily Democratic downballot, so it definitely varies from state to state.

      •  The ten least urban states (0+ / 0-)

        By my count:

        Vermont--solid blue
        West Virginia--solid red federally, light blue locally
        Wyoming--solid red
        North Dakota--red, but has Heitkamp
        Montana--red federally, purple locally
        Maine--light blue federally but will go for Rs
        South Dakota--red, but has Johnson
        Mississippi--solid red
        Kentucky--red federally, purple locally
        Iowa--purple

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

        by jncca on Fri Feb 15, 2013 at 11:08:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Your list is a bit off according to the census; (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Stephen Wolf

          Here's the list:

          1. Vermont
          2. Wyoming
          3. Maine
          4. Montana
          5. Mississippi
          6. South Dakota
          7. West Virginia
          8. Arkansas
          9. North Dakota
          10. Kentucky

          Personally, I was a bit surprised to learn that South Dakota's population is less urban than North Dakota's, but there we go!

          Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

          by NMLib on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 01:19:12 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I mapped it out on DRA myself (0+ / 0-)

            The census and I use different criteria, but I think mine is more accurate.  I consider everything metro area under 75,000 people rural, because although many of those people live "in town," it's a very rural/small town feel.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.4.12, -4.92

            by jncca on Sat Feb 16, 2013 at 06:42:39 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  You crazy Stephen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GoUBears

    But it's the kind of crazy I respect.  I certainly would not have had the patience to compile this data.

    Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Daman09 on Sun Feb 17, 2013 at 05:05:27 PM PST

  •  So much respect (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stephen Wolf

    For actually taking the time to check Utah's numbers out. Thank you.

    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

    by Gygaxian on Tue Feb 19, 2013 at 10:40:40 PM PST

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