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Pres-by-CD We've gotten some more county results, this time from Marion County, OH. Accordingly, we're adding OH-04 and OH-12. Both were drawn by Republicans to be solidly Republican, and their presidential results bear that: OH-04 is 42% Obama, while OH-12 is 44% Obama.

Meanwhile, the Texas Legislative Council has released its own tabulation by CD. They generally match ours to the percent (and for many districts, to the precise vote count), so we've added the TLC's results to our spreadsheet provisionally. The three Lower Rio Grande Valley districts (TX-15, TX-28, amd TX-34) are all heavily Hispanic, and all went for Obama by healthy margins (57.4, 60.3, and 60.8 percent Obama, respectively). Another district with new results, the 60.5 percent Romney TX-27, was drawn for Republican Rep. Blake Farenthold and is otherwise unremarkable. the Texas map will be redrawn before 2014, and of course, we'll keep you updated on those.

TX-23, the other border district yet unaccounted for, was a narrow Romney win at 51-48. Dem Rep. Pete Gallego joins 8 other Dems in occupying Romney districts (the other 8 being Ann Kirkpatrick, Ron Barber, Patrick Murphy, John Barrow, Collin Peterson, Mike McIntyre, Jim Matheson, and Nick Rahall). For reference, there are 14 Republicans occupying Obama districts in the 419 districts for which we have estimates so far (my guess is that Frank LoBiondo in NJ-02 and Peter King in NY-02 almost certainly will join that group, as may potentially Jon Runyan in NJ-03 and Scott Garrett in NJ-05).

Finally, we also got official results from Luzerne County, PA. In PA-17, Obama added 118 votes to Romney's 102 (with 3 cast for Johnson/Stein), while in PA-11, Obama added 215 votes to Romney's 254 (and 6 for Johnson/Stein). None of the changes affected the percentages to the hundredth digit. (jeffmd)

11:05 AM PT: For the results of tonight's two state House special elections in Minnesota (Districts 14A and 19A), you can follow along at the Secretary of State's website. Polls close at 8pm local time (9pm Eastern).

11:20 AM PT: AR-Gov: Looks like the Arkansas GOP is rallying behind ex-Rep. Asa Hutchinson: Lt. Gov. Mark Darr, who seemed eager to drop the "lieutenant" part of his title almost since the day he was first elected, has decided against a run for governor and is instead endorsing Hutchinson. However, Darr recently started changing his tune (perhaps knowing that this day was coming) and has indicated interest in running for Senate instead. That's a tougher race, seeing as Dem Sen. Mark Pryor is running for re-election whereas the gubernatorial contest will be for an open seat, but it may be easier than running into the establishment buzzsaw that Hutchinson represents.

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side, local columnist John Brummett claims—based on "ever-reliable information," which sounds a lot like "rumors"—that ex-Rep. Mike Ross, who has twice declared he has no interest in running for governor, has in fact had a major change of heart and is now at a "90 percent likelihood" to enter the race. I suppose this is possible, but what makes Brummett's assertion a bit harder to swallow is that he doesn't acknowledge (at least in the linked article) what a big turnaround this would be for Ross. In any event, former LG Bill Halter is the only declared Dem in the race at this point, but if Ross got in, that could lead to a serious primary rumble between the Blue Dog and labor wings of the party.

11:44 AM PT: MA-Sen: Hah, there's going to be a contested Republican primary for the Massachusetts Senate special election? Sure looks that way—if everyone can get enough signatures to make it on the ballot in time. Businessman Gabriel Gomez, who seems to be the NRSC's preferred choice (to the extent they have one), declared on Wednesday that he would enter the race, joining state Rep. Dan Winslow who announced a few days earlier.

It could actually be entertaining, though: Again, to the extent there is one, the MA GOP establishment seems to prefer Gomez, because, opines local analyst David Bernstein, Winslow once served as chief counsel to Americans Elect, the third party splitter movement that may well have hurt Mitt Romney more than Barack Obama had it been successful. Of course, it wasn't successful, and it didn't matter in the end anyway, but that sort of disloyalty may well have cheesed off Romney's remaining Bay State partisans. Indeed, Romney's old lieutenant governor, Kerry Healey, has endorsed Gomez. Nothing like seeing old scores settled when the stakes are so small.

12:40 PM PT: MI-Gov: We finally have something resembling a timetable from Democratic ex-Rep. Mark Schauer, who confirmed last month that he's thinking about a run for governor. Schauer now says "he will make a decision in the next month or so," according to WMUK's Gordon Evans.

1:18 PM PT: NC-Sen: I certainly understand why PPP likes to poll their home state every month, but Tom Jensen buried the lede in writing up his new North Carolina Senate poll. In the last graf, Tom says: "The story with this race remains the same," and indeed, it does. If you want to find out, uh, how the story stays the same, you'll have to click through, because only one person should have to suffer through writing up the same poll month after month, and if Tom's already taken the pain, then I'm not gonna double down!

2:19 PM PT: IL-Gov: Obviously there's no point in wishing for Joe Walsh to run for governor, because the very notion is just too good to be true. Case in point: After finally resolving a much-publicized legal battle with his wife over his failure to pay child support, Walsh—churned out of Congress last year—is now telling a judge that he has no income and wants his payments "terminated." Even better, after the Chicago Sun-Times first broke the story, they altered their headline slightly, leading Walsh to furiously declare that he would sue the paper because the report was "pure defamation and a hit piece." Just awesome! But this, I think, takes the cake:

Joe Walsh's kids don't have a revenue problem, they have a spending problem. http://t.co/...
@sahilkapur via Janetter for Mac

2:36 PM PT: CO-AG: The job of Colorado attorney general will be up for grabs next year because the incumbent, Republican John Suthers, is term-limited. As of Tuesday, Democrats are first out the gate with what looks like a strong candidate, former Adams County District Attorney Don Quick. Adams, in the Denver area, is the state's fifth-largest county, and Quick also served as the top deputy to Ken Salazar, who served as AG before getting elected to the Senate in 2004, so he certainly seems to have the right profile.

Meanwhile, the Great Mentioner offers this trio on the GOP side: Chief Deputy Attorney General Cynthia Coffman (who also happens to be married to Rep. Mike Coffman), House Minority Leader Mark Waller, and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck. Oh yeah, you read that last name right! The same gorgeous Ken Buck who saved our asses in the ultra-narrow 2010 Senate race that another less-awful Republican should by all rights have won. Second time's the charm?

2:55 PM PT: GA-06: Not that I ever trust Wenzel Strategies... actually, there is no "but" here. I don't trust this poll (PDF) either, of a hypothetical 6th Congressional District GOP primary if Rep. Tom Price runs for Senate. Why do I say that? First, because Price hasn't even declared a bid—in fact, he said he won't decide at least until May. And second, because the clear frontrunner in this poll, former SoS (and Susan Komen wrecker) Karen Handel, hasn't expressed any interest in running for the House but rather is reportedly eyeing the same Senate seat Price is looking at.

So this seems like it could well be a ploy by Price partisans to encourage Handel to drop down. Anyhow, Handel takes 40 percent in this poll, with her nearest competitor, state Sen. Judson Hill, at 13. Really not buying this whole thing, but who knows? Maybe Handel would indeed prefer an easier House race versus what is sure to be a scorching Senate war.

3:01 PM PT: NJ-Gov: Jesus. Seriously, Jesus. At least no one was seriously hurt in Barbara Buono's car crash on Monday, because these two new polls—one from Rutgers, one from Monmouth—seriously suck.

4:10 PM PT: DCCC: I think I'll file this under "believe it when I see it": According to a piece the other day from Roll Call's Jonathan Strong, Barack Obama intends to not only host a number of fundraisers for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee this cycle, but he's also planning to directly assist with candidate recruitment. This would be a major change from the Obama of old, who has always shown much less interest in helping his party downballot than other men who have held his job, like Bill Clinton and George Bush; perhaps he's liberated by the fact that he never has to run for office again.

I'm hoping he really sticks to his plans (he's apparently made a specific commitment directly to DCCC chair Steve Israel), because I'd imagine getting a phone call from the POTUS would really be quite something for a potential candidate and could definitely help wavering souls make the right choice. We may never know for sure what Obama actually winds up doing, but hey, at least we can hope.

4:18 PM PT: We're gonna put up a thread at 9pm ET for the Minnesota state House specials... and because I'm crazy like that, you can also use it to chat about the State of the Union address.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 06:00:08 AM PST

  •  Btw, if you're still wondering... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Audrid, KingofSpades, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

    How the Nevada Legislature is handling the Brooks scandal, read
    this. Again, sorry about the lack of special elections here.

  •  PVIs (11+ / 0-)

    OH-4: R+9 unchanged
    OH-12: R+8 unchanged

    Neither of the PA districts changes from previous entry (obviously).

    TX-15: D+1 to D+5
    TX-27: R+13 unchanged
    TX-28: D+2 to D+7
    TX-34: D+3 to D+8

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 06:26:36 AM PST

  •  My brain skipped "Texas Legislative Council" (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, WisJohn

    and I wondered why the TV channel was releasing vote numbers.

  •  MN-6/IA-SD-13 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, pistolSO, MichaelNY

    Michele Bachmann is being accused of covering up a crime, specifically, theft of an e-mail list from an evangelical front group, that was committed by Republican Iowa State Senator Kent Sorenson, who was Bachmann's Iowa state campaign chairman during her failed presidential bid.

    Link to diary from the DKos main page

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 06:54:36 AM PST

  •  WI-Gov (6+ / 0-)

    Scott Walker raised $377,000 in the second half of 2012, and over 80% of individuals that donated to Walker in that time frame lived outside of Wisconsin, as a matter of fact, Walker raised more money from California and Texas-based donors than he did from Wisconsin-based donors.

    The fact that Walker has raised much of his money from outside of Wisconsin probably explains why some of the policies that the Walker administration has floated aren't exactly in Wisconsin's best interest.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 07:40:45 AM PST

  •  MA-SEN: Gomez is in (8+ / 0-)

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/...

    We'll see about those 10,000 signature though...

  •  Shelley Moore Capito = Kay Bailey Hutchison? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    germankid101

    Ok, so the prospects look dim to hold this seat - for now.  So, let's assume Moore Capito does win -- is she really that bad?  Isn't she pro-choice and pro-labor?  I thought she was considered a "moderate" in the house as well.  Wouldn't she be more like a Kay Bailey Hutchison than say a Deb Fischer?

    27, male, gay, living with and loving my partner of over 4 years in downtown Indianapolis (IN-7).

    by IndyLiberal on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 07:58:58 AM PST

  •  2014/2016: Carlos Guiterrez' new pro-CIR SuperPAC (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    He was George W. Bush's Commerce Secretary, and he's now putting together a SuperPAC to support Republicans who support comprehensive immigration reform. Does anyone think he'll be successful? While some Republican leaders seem to be heeding Marco Rubio, the G-O-TEA base is still firmly against CIR. And as we've already been seeing from Karl Rove these past couple weeks, the "tea party" is readying for another round of primary fights (against Rove & the establishment) next year.

    Perhaps the one hope Guiterrez can cling onto is that Republicans will soon go the way of the Whigs & (perhaps more fitting) the Know-Nothing's if they keep drinking too much "TEA".

  •  NJ Gov (6+ / 0-)

    Brutal numbers. Christie approvals are 70-17, leads Bruno 62-20. He even has 58% of Democrats approving of him. Idiots.
    http://www.monmouth.edu/...

    •  Some people like divided government (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, AUBoy2007, MichaelNY

      And never underestimate the power a natural disaster can have on ones popularity.

    •  Sweet, 66% support raising minimum wage (6+ / 0-)

      on the ballot vote this November.

      Also, in Rutgers poll, Dems lead generic ballot 40-25.  I remember another poll a few months back that had them up like 49-33 or something.

      Buono is unknown by over 3/4ths of the state.  If know by most and as other issues take over, I'll bet it'll be much closer.  He'll very likely win by like 10%, though, I'd have to say, with Democrats losing little in the legislature (I dunno why, but all Senators are up both 2011 and 2013).

      It also appears Senator Van Drew (D-Vineland) will run for re-election as I saw in another PolitickerNJ article that Democrats in Cape May are noticing him powering up his campaign recently.  He also endorsed Buono.

      Finally, let me say that winning NJ-Gov will have to wait for 2017, but winning VA-Gov will have a much more pronounced effect (and will help in the next VA legislative midterm in 2015 as the Governor can start a big campaign fund).

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 08:57:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Likelist worst case scenario (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        21-19 majority for Democrats in Senate, 42-38 majority for Democrats in Assembly.

        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

        by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 09:57:31 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  *likeliest (0+ / 0-)

          "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

          by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 09:57:44 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  So worst case scenario is (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, MichaelNY

          Republicans and Christiecrats have a majority then? What kind of legislation would Christie be pushing then if Democrats retained a very narrow nominal majority?

          •  Nothing incendiary or audacious (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY

            I predict a slow legislature with little creative ability if Dems hold a marginal majority.  Likely no votes to jam Christie, but there will be some mild things passed that he wants.  That's assuming Democrats get that low.

            "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

            by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 10:07:08 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Just out of curiosity (0+ / 0-)

              has anyone tried drawing a realistic Democratic gerrymander of what the legislatures in states like New Jersey and Washington might look like without bipartisan redistricting (and Christie)? I'd be interested to see if we could lock in supermajorities. It would be interesting to compare to a similarly blue state such as Illinois where having pretty much guaranteed supermajorities allows us to pass a much more progressive policy agenda.

              •  We already have a Democratic legislative map (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                gabjoh

                It's not quite a gerrymander, but it works.  I guess in a true gerrymander, a supermajority would be within reach. Right now, a few Republican State Senators occupy Democratic LD's (Jen Beck and Diane Allen) with two more in very light red districts.  In comparison, Democrats have only one Senator in a districts that's light red (Van Drew and the Assemblymen there).

                "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

                by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 10:13:58 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Jen Beck (0+ / 0-)

                  I wouldn't call her LD "blue" per se; it's probably about as blue as LD-16 where an appointed R incumbent just held onto an Assembly seat despite presidential turnout. however in a real D gerrymander you could easily make LD-16 a safe blue seat, which would give Dems 25-15 in the Senate (26-14 when Allen retires) and 50-30 in the Assembly (52-28 if we can somehow manage to beat those damn Atlantic City Assemblymen). That would put us one LD short of a supermajority, which would mean that LD-11 would get us there. the problem is that even in a D map you can't really make it bluer than it already is. it already has all of the blue areas in Monmouth County packed together, and all three of the Republican incumbents - Beck, Casagrande, and Angelini - seem fairly entrenched.

                  Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                  by sapelcovits on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 02:31:20 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  Washington (0+ / 0-)

                tried, got about halfway done, and realized it would probably require more knowledge of the state than I have.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 10:42:05 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  I take that back (0+ / 0-)

                just doing the areas between Bellingham and Olympia it's easy to draw what should be 26 Democratic districts (none below around D+3-4, mostly at 60+ Obama).  Gotta be able to get a couple more, at least.  Of 49 that's an easy majority.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 10:31:12 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  when I said D+3-4 I meant 4-5 (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Stephen Wolf

                And covering all of western WA you can get 29 seats at least that, plus several swing districts.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Wed Feb 13, 2013 at 12:01:59 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  oops, well, 29 in the state (0+ / 0-)

                  plus another five swing districts.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Wed Feb 13, 2013 at 08:57:07 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

      •  Why didn't we put marriage equality (0+ / 0-)

        on the ballot too?

        25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Wed Feb 13, 2013 at 03:57:30 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  A lot of it is self-fufilling prophecy... (6+ / 0-)

      All we keep hearing is how unbeatable Christie is.  It's becoming the prevailing storyline and the NY/NJ media likes the guy so is running with it.   North East Republicans are the type you find owning the media companies, the news rooms and the on-air staff, they want to "take their party back" and that means Christie cannot lose now because that would greatly damage his chances, if not end them.  The NE Repubs need him to win, and win big with crossover support that he could then sell in 2016.  

      Dumbass influential Dems are either along for the ride, or figure Christie as the 2016 GOP candidate is the best case scenario so are fine keeping him strong.  

      I don't think folks really believe he is anti-marriage equality either, but personal political ambition made him veto it.  It's why he's all for the ballot measure, because it would pass and become NJ law without his hands being involved in it so he couldn't be attacked on it during the GOP primary.   You can condemn that, but Pres Obama did the same thing basically in the 2008 GE against McCain.  

      Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and potential for a pipeline leak ecological disaster.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 09:05:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Romney ran on how Dem his legislature was (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        yet still was able to get stuff done, but that didn't help much.

        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

        by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 09:32:11 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Obama again won Peter King's new district? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    I so hope he retires this decade so we could pick it up.

    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

    by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 09:00:44 AM PST

  •  VC-Pontiff: Who do people want? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, gabjoh, MichaelNY, HoosierD42

    I'm personally holding out hope for Stephen Colbert. He is, after all, a Catholic.

  •  AR-Gov--Mike Ross in? (9+ / 0-)

    Or so rumour has it, according to an RRH poster.

    Probably good news if true; he seems electable, and it would be nice to know that he didn't toss away his congressional seat for nothing.

    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 09:28:29 AM PST

  •  atdnext, while you're back, can I ask (7+ / 0-)

    when Dems gain back the Governorship and manage to hold the legislature as well, would repeal of NV's RTW status be on the menu of things to do?  I know NV already has a very strong union presence despite RTW, but it's time for some turnabout after IN and MI (though the latter may revert).

    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

    by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 09:34:27 AM PST

  •  WATN/Election History/NE-Gov/etc (6+ / 0-)

    Not really too electiony, but an interesting read nonetheless if you're bored :)

    The Lincoln Star Journal has been doing articles on and interviews with former Nebraska Governor Kay Orr, elected in 1986.  Or was the first Republican woman to be elected governor in the country, and that election was also the first time that the 2 major parties of a state nominated women for governor (the Democrats nominated Lincoln mayor Helen Boosalis, who lost to Orr 53-47).  

    This article lays out essentially why her administration was a complete disaster and she became the 4th straight Republican governor in Nebraska to lose reelection in 1990, to an unknown businessman by the name of Ben Nelson...I guess my point is this is what it takes to elect a Democrat governor (it also helped that NE-3 had a huge blizzard on election day)

    http://journalstar.com/...

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 09:35:17 AM PST

    •  Who can be the Dem dark horseman? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 09:36:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Honestly (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        I have no idea haha.  But, in 2012 I really felt like Chuck Hassebrook could have been a dark horse in the senate race, so perhaps he could be in the governor's race.  The only person I can think of who could really win is probably Warren Buffett (hey, a guy can dream, right?).

        Of course, anyone could be a dark horse if the Republicans nominate professional loser Don Stenberg lol

        27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

        by JDJase on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 10:47:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  NE was a different state back then (9+ / 0-)

      Really difficult to understate how rural America has changed politically over the past few decades. Independent farmers used to be a critical populist bloc, but as they've been largely upended by corporations, it's a different ballgame. True fact: this is the first year Nebraska has had two GOP Senators since 1978. And for the '80s through the mid-'90s, the state sent two Democrats to the Senate. Even as late as 1996 the Democrats still had a decent chance of snagging Bob Dole's seat in Kansas with Jill Docking. And Dole and Kassebaum were very moderate Republicans because of the same reality.

      I think there are still a decent number of agro-populist types in Iowa and some other states in the region, but it ain't what it used to be.

      •  Zorinsky/Exon/Kerrey etc were all exceptions to (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        the rule. Go back even further and the state had two republican senators from 1943-1977. Hruska and Curtis were actually worse IMO than Fischer and Johanns.

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 12:59:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, they were good for unintentional (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Washington entertainment: Sens. Roman "In Defense of Mediocrity On the Supreme Court" Hruska and Carl "Watergate Schmatergate" Curtis.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:13:33 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Also George Norris (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, MichaelNY

          slightly before that.

          Nebraska has long been a conservative-leaning state, but it used to be that populist Democrats could make it thanks to traditional agrarian populism. There were always lots of conservatives there, but it was close. Sort of like, I don't know, Idaho, which was generally conservative but also elected flaming libs like Frank Church and Glen Taylor. Nowadays, the farmers are mostly gone, and so are those states' Democratic prospects.

        •  I'm not sure about that (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          IIRC, based on my reading about the two, both were pretty good on issues like civil rights legislation. They may have been reactionary -and Hruska certainly didn't help himself with his mediocrity comments -but they didn't seem to be right wing zealots in the same way that people like Fischer are

        •  Johanns from my (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          experience watching him in committee hearings is that he may be one of the least intelligent people I've seen in elected office.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 06:26:13 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Another WATN (0+ / 0-)

      Though everyone knows where he is, I thought this was particularly interesting:

      http://nymag.com/...

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 10:15:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  is the blizzard part of why (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Barrett/Scofield in NE3 was also close.

      Scofield won in NW Nebraska with Barrett winning East of North Platte

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 11:10:52 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  SSM and adoption bill passes French Assembly (8+ / 0-)

    329-229.  Goes to Senate, which Socialists also control (first time in the history of the 5th Republican):
    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...

    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

    by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 09:55:51 AM PST

    •  *the 5th Republic (5+ / 0-)

      I need more coffee.

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 09:56:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Didn't know the Socialists (4+ / 0-)

      have never controlled the French Senate since the 5th Republic began in 1958.  Of course, French Senate elections don't always occur at the same time as Presidential and Assembly elections.

      I had thought they had a majority during the Mitterand Socialist wave of the early 1980s, but no.  Still, France at that time was an interesting contrast to the Reagan/Thatcher era.

      37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 10:07:19 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Center-right controlled the Senate until 2011 (5+ / 0-)

        http://en.wikipedia.org/...
        From what I've heard, the French Senate uses a system not unlike our Electoral College to elect Senators, which was explicitly done to keep the left out of power.

        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

        by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 10:10:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  This almost seems to be a recurring theme (5+ / 0-)

          with Western governments in that the nature of the electoral institutions gives the right an inherent advantage, at least recently. This definitely holds true for the US and Canada as well as France. Are there others? What about Western/developed countries where electoral institutions give a substantial advantage to the left instead?

          •  The House of Lords? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, MichaelNY

            It's pretty conservative and antiquated.

            "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

            by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 10:17:14 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  The House of Lords doesn't have (6+ / 0-)

              the sort of de facto veto power as the US Senate, for instance. It can delay legislation but not flat-out kill it.

              Britain may be one country that the left does have something of an advantage in, at least in recent years, as Labour has benefited from House of Commons election scheduling and district lines.  In 2005 they maintained a majority of 356 seats despite only getting 35% of the popular vote, and even after Labour collapsed in the 2010 elections the Tories needed to partner with the Liberal Democrats to claim a majority.

              Labour of course won't have the privilege of scheduling the election next time, though it remains to be seen if David Cameron's Tories can rebound before spring 2015, when one must occur if it isn't held sooner.

              37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

              by Mike in MD on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 10:28:37 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Not an inherent advantage for the right (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, gabjoh, MichaelNY

            More often, it's an inherent advantage for rural areas over cities, and it's only over the last several decades rural areas globally have moved increasingly close to conservative and nationalist parties.

            (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

            by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 11:55:24 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  For example (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, MichaelNY

              The French Senate is elected by locally elected public officials, primarily Mayors and City and Regional Councillors, but every official is given one vote, regardless of city or districts size. Even though the left controlled local public officials representing a (sometimes large) majority of French citizens before 2011, this kept the Senate in conservative hands. The overwhelming majority French Senators hail from rural areas, despite most French citizens living in cities.

              A similar bias exists in the American Senate.

              (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

              by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 12:02:23 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Bias is inherent to Republican government (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14, MichaelNY

                These systems were designed to give rural areas disproportionate sway, because these are not Democracies, they are Republics, and were designed with systemic checks-and-balances on majority opinion.

                (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

                by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 12:11:00 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Of course, which is why I said "at least recently" (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              It used to be that the Democrats were the rural party and were able to pack Republicans into nice suburban vote sinks, especially in the South, but no longer.

              However, I don't see this trend reversing itself any time soon either here or more broadly in countries like France, Germany, Spain, Italy, or Britain as a whole where a rural bias means a de facto right of center bias, so my point still stands that it seems like a lot of western countries' institutions give the right an inherent advantage.

              •  Right, but coalitions aren't static (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Stephen Wolf, ArkDem14, gabjoh, MichaelNY

                Who would have suggested twenty years ago a black Democrat would be elected President, while losing the south, by winning in the west? The future isn't always foreseeable. Eventually the pendulum will swing back our way, because these systems aren't biased towards the right, they're biased toward a temporary member of the current center-right coalition.

                In Europe, the shift in voting patterns in rural areas is less cultural and more based in temporary, transient economics, as many center-left parties were responsible for leading their countries into the Euro and taking an increasingly globalized macroeconomic policy. The euroskeptic left (the IU in Spain, the Green-Communists in Portugal, SYRIZA in Greece et. al.) is strongest in rural areas.

                In countries without a strong euroskeptic left, rural areas have moved toward nationalist and xenophobic parties willing to protect economic minority agricultural interests (DF, the True Finns, and N-VA) but many of these allegedly pro-welfare state parties have been forced to prop up austere right-wing governments during the economic crisis, and have seen their first ever drop in poll support after meteoric rises last decade.

                (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

                by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:16:32 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

      •  Senate elections are indirect (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        The French Senate is elected by locally elected public officials, and was designed to be controlled by the right, as a counterbalance to socialist and communist sway in the directly-elected legislature. Like the UK House of Concillors however it's primarily ceremonial now, so the bill should be effectively passed.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 11:49:24 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Pres by CD (8+ / 0-)

    David Wasserman's spreadsheet, which he unfortunately no longer has available as far as I can tell, had NJ-02 and 03 as Obama districts and 05 as a narrow Romney district. That would give us a map like this:

     photo USCongressionalDistrictsbyPresidentialElection2012_zpsca531bca.png
    (click for larger image)

    So 31 districts flipped to Romney while 3 flipped to Obama for a total of 228 Romney and 207 Obama districts if my math is correct.

    That makes a total of 9 Romney district Dems and 15 Obama district Republicans

  •  Western Australian state election (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, KingofSpades, BeloitDem

    Here's an interesting biographical ad Labor's been playing about Labor leader Mark McGowan:

    One of the things the ad stresses is that McGowan has been in parliament for 16 years! You certaintly don't hear something like that said these days over here in the states.

    Oh yeah and if you're wondering if Labor could pull off an upset and win back government you'd have a better chance of winning the lottery at this point. The latest Newspoll shows the Liberals leading Labor 57-43%.

    Not only that, but WA Labor has to deal with the spectre of Julia Gillard and Federal Labor who in the words of Fritz Hollings is, "as popular as AIDS" in Western Australia.

    Also Colin Barnett's government except for Troy Buswell isn't an embarrassing and incompetent freak show like the Liberal governments in Queensland and Victoria have turned out to be.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 10:53:40 AM PST

  •  Mardi Gras (5+ / 0-)

    Happy Mardi Gras y'all. W/ Mardi Gras on my mind, I'm hoping for the PPP poll of Louisiana to be released shortly.

    In the meantime, I'm here at Gallier Hall where about an hour ago, Mayor Landrieu, Archbishop Aymond, Saints owner Tom Benson and half the city council all did "The Wobble".

    I'd love to toss the archbishop's hat in the race for Pope 2013. Hail Rex and happy Mardi Gras y'all

    23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 11:11:16 AM PST

  •  CA GOP Leadership fight (7+ / 0-)

    While Jim Brulte seems to have locked down the chairmanship position, there seems to be fight brewing over who gets vice chairmanship. The two candidates are Rodney Stanhope (who is a darling to the conservative activist base) and Harmeet Dhillon. There's been a little catfud as conservatives call Dhillon a RINO and uncovered that she had apparently donated to Kamala Harris's campaign.
    Dhillon has the disheartening job of running the San Francisco GOP. The SF gate ran bio about her.

    http://www.examiner.com/...

    In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

    by lordpet8 on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 11:17:59 AM PST

  •  Apparently Obama is going to make a major effort (6+ / 0-)

    to help Dems win back control of the House in 2014.  There have been a lot of people around here saying it would be nearly impossible and I'm inclined to agree, it will be very hard.  But the Democratic leadership is very serious about 2014.

  •  VA-Gov: Democrats are holding (13+ / 0-)

    public hearings to promote Cuccinelli's new book lol

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 11:28:57 AM PST

  •  Americans Elect (7+ / 0-)

    I always saw the group as the 1%'s (to use the occupy framing) backup plan if some Bachmann type won the GOP nomination.  All its funding came from hedge fund managers and they quickly put the kibosh on it once it was clear that Romney would get the nod.

  •  Marco Rubio was one of 22 senators who (12+ / 0-)

    just voted against the renewal of the Violence Against Women Act.

    Hope any Democrats running for president in 2016 remember that vote.

  •  Top House Targets (7+ / 0-)

    I've compiled a list of what I consider the 17 easiest seats that we can pick up at this moment, not accounting for retirements, scandals, and how durable of a majority these districts would provide. For reference, I've marked Obama districts as "O" and Romney districts as "R." To start, I believe we have two pretty easy targets:

    Easy Targets (2)
    Gary Miller (CA-31; O)
    Mike Coffman (CO-06; O)
    These seats both strike me as fluke wins for the GOP. If Pete Aguilar had been able to break through the top-two primary in CA-31, I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that he would've beat Miller. Coffman also seemed to luck out. He got an average Democratic opponent in Joe Miklosi, and 4% of our vote share was cut off by Kathy Polhemus, a Democrat running as an independent to the right of Miklosi. Coffman was only able to pull off a plurality 48% win, and I bet we could beat him easily without a split left-leaning vote and more support from the DCCC. If I was running a campaign for either of the Democrats in these districts, I would highlight as clearly as possible to voters that Miller and Coffman are both members of the Tea Party Caucus in Congress and that both have acted through the Tea Party to obstruct progress in Congress. The Tea Party already has poor approval numbers across the nation, and I'll bet they'll be an albatross in these Obama districts.

    Here's the list of the 15 key targets I think we can beat to regain a majority, though they will all require a tough fight:

    Key Targets (15)
    Jeff Denham (CA-10; O)
    David Valadao (CA-21; O)
    Jackie Walorski (IN-02; R)
    Rodney Davis (IL-13; R)
    Dan Benishek (MI-01; R)
    Kerry Bentivolio (MI-11; R)
    Michele Bachmann (MN-06; R)
    Lee Terry (NE-02; R)
    Joe Heck (NV-03; O)
    Michael Grimm (NY-11; O)
    Chris Gibson (NY-19; O)
    Tom Reed (NY-23; R)
    David Joyce (OH-14; R)
    Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08; R)
    Open (WV-02; R)
    Every Republican on this list is in a swing district, had no real Democratic competition, or performed much worse than expected, making them all vulnerable to a general election dogfight in 2014. In some cases (specifically MI-11 and MN-06), I'm not sure if we'd be able to hold some of these districts for more than a term. However, these are all vulnerable Republicans that are ripe for targeting. I have several more second-tier Republican districts saved on a separate list that could potentially be targeted in the event of a wave election or key retirements that I can share at a later time. However, I think claiming these 17 districts should be our top priority in taking the House back in 2014.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 12:41:41 PM PST

    •  MN-06. (8+ / 0-)

      I don't think we should waste money on Bachmann. If she was going to lose, it was going to be last year or 2008, and she won both. The district is redder than it used to be as well. Yes, she is crazy, and yes, she is vulnerable, but I don't think we should waste money on her anymore. The district is just too red. Besides, we have to have someone to make fun of! :)

      Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, Coya shouldn't have been sent home.

      by WisJohn on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 12:49:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  In addition (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        I wouldn't bother with PA-8 or NE-2. I'd add Buck McKeon in CA-25.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 12:57:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Targets (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JBraden, ArkDem14, lordpet8, MichaelNY

          I don't see why NE-02 isn't a viable target. It's more viable than all of the seats that are on my second-tier list. 2012 proved that Lee Terry is very vulnerable when given a proper challenge, and if John Ewing runs again and gets proper support from the DCCC, I seriously believe he can win.

          PA-08 will be a difficult slog against Fitzpatrick considering how entrenched he is, but I noted from the start that the "key targets" would all be difficult to varying degrees. PA-08 is merely one of the better options when we have very little to work with at all.

          CA-25 is on my second-tier list. I think McKeon is theoretically vulnerable, but if we want to win CA-25 in 2014, it would likely either require a retirement or a wave election. The seat is trending toward us, but I don't think it will be blue enough in 2014 for us to defeat McKeon outright. It'll probably be blue enough in 2016 or 2018 at the latest, but I think it's still a bit too early for this seat.

          The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

          by AndySonSon on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:19:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It should be gettable in 2016 (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Stephen Wolf, JBraden, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

            jdase spoke of a Dem Senator in southern Omaha who was chosen to chair the Approp. committee in the non-partisan legislature.  He's termed out in '16 as well.

            "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

            by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:24:19 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  I find it sooo aggravating (5+ / 0-)

          when I see people say "don't bother with NE-02!" I lived in NE-02 for a little over 18 years and I, just recently, came to Washington for college. I can assure everyone NE-02 is absolutely, positively winnable if the DCCC just got off their high horse and put some money into the district.

          The majority of people who vote for Lee Terry still think they are voting for his father who was very popular. Lee Terry is almost invisible and the only reason he won in 2008 is because he piggy backed off of the Obama campaigns stellar NE-02 out reach program and my amazing coworkers at OFA. The only reason Terry won in 2012 was due to the incompetence of the DCCC.

          In short, NE-02 is winnable. 110% winnable if we put effort into doing so, which seems to be impossible.

        •  in addition to the NE-02 comments above; (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Bucks County is absolutely winnable and promoting defeatism there is flat-out wrong.

          25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Wed Feb 13, 2013 at 04:09:53 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I think we could win it (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden, James Allen, MichaelNY

        but only by funneling untold millions that would be better spent on races like MI-01, IL-13, CO-06 etc.

        Graves only spent about $2.3 million and if he had put in more than just $250,000 of his own money he probably would have eked out a win. Last year was certainly the year to do it though.

      •  Not So Sure (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, madmojo, gabjoh, MichaelNY

        People insisted last year that we wouldn't get close to Bachmann and that 2008 was our only chance, yet we came within 1.2% of victory in 2012. I think that in a midterm year with slightly less partisan tendencies, we can beat her if we run Graves again. I should clarify that I want this race to be predominantly funded by Graves himself rather than through groups like the DCCC considering that he's actually wealthy. I'm highly skeptical that we can hold the seat for more than a term (unless, of course, Bachmann tries to make a comeback if she loses), but considering the actual substantive damage her rhetoric has done to our public discourse (particularly her comments on vaccinations and Huma Abedin, among a variety of other toxic actions and comments), I think we should aim to take her out if we have the chance. I believe we do. Please don't confuse me with someone who thinks that people like Louie Gohmert and Eric Cantor are vulnerable to general election defeats. They aren't. However, the fact that Graves made as much progress as he did indicates that he could take her out on the second try with higher name recognition and broader support.

        The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

        by AndySonSon on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:09:15 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I am with youi WisJohn (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, James Allen, MichaelNY

        Some liberals don't want to hear it, but going after Bachmann again and again and again isn't getting us anywhere, and depletes our resources from other wjnnable races.

        •  "Some Liberals" (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JGibson, gabjoh, MichaelNY

          Please recognize that I'm a pragmatist and a realist. I'm not the type who sticks his head in the sand and insists that Jerry Tetalman, Lori Compas, and the like actually have a shot at winning. As I stated above, I think we need to run Graves again with the explicit understanding that he'll fund most of his campaign on his own. I don't think we should have the DCCC divert millions of dollars just to win this district for maybe a single term. My point in this exercise was merely to demonstrate that Bachmann is one of the most vulnerable Representatives in the country, and that a self-funder like Graves can win this seat if he invests serious money into this race. That's all.

          The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

          by AndySonSon on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:30:37 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I appreciate the enthusiasm (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JBraden, bumiputera, ehstronghold, gabjoh

            But winning MN-6 is simply a distraction. It isn't just money, its energy and resources. There are not an infinite number of skilled campaign workers and volunteers. Unseating Bachmann sounds appealing to people and gets them jazzed up. I get that. But it is not viable, as Democrats have come after her hard multiple times and lost each and every one of those times. I don't think another minute of our time should be wasted on this pipedream just to make us "feel good" about unseating her. The energy and enthusiasm is infinitely better spent elsewhere.

            •  Lost in this discussion (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JBraden, lordpet8, James Allen, MichaelNY

              but I think its been brought up on DKE before is that although Bachmann massively underperforms her very red district, it is very likely that a generic R could take it straight back from us in the very next cycle. I see this as similar to the Walt Minnick situation in Idaho. A complete self funder is a different story I suppose, but in allocating finite DCCC resources this is lower on the list for me.

              •  Not Lost (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I mentioned it in my comment right above OGGoldy's comment.

                I don't think we should have the DCCC divert millions of dollars just to win this district for maybe a single term.

                The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

                by AndySonSon on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:58:46 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I am not even talking millions of dollars (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  WisJohn, gabjoh, MichaelNY

                  I am talking pennies, or a single campaign worker. These workers and volunteers need to be put where they are useful, and MN-6 is not that place. Look, if you are doubting my assertion that Bachmann has a floor of .5% above whatever her opponent gets, then I can't help you. She is a pathetic candidate, but this is not a district we are going to win, no matter how much more we throw at it. Which, by the way, was actually millions of dollars that didn't come from Graves, 2.05 million other dollars, to be exact. Not. Worth. It.

                  •  Response (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    I was clearly speaking in hyperbole in my comment. I don't want the DCCC putting any resources into this district either beyond maybe offering Graves a call system like HubDialer which tends to be supplied to most candidates. As I've said many times now, I want Graves to run again specifically because he can self fund. Stephen Wolf and I have already shown how much Bachmann had to have a stacked deck to get a win in 2012. The only contention I've made is that if Graves ran again and self-funded his campaign and brought himself closer to funding parity with Bachmann, he has the potential to win. I did not say this outcome was likely, and I did not say that Graves is favored to beat her in 2014. I merely think he has a realistic chance, and I think this view has been misinterpreted.

                    On a side note, I've found many of your comments in this thread to be condescending. We can have a difference of opinions without having to get personal about it.

                    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

                    by AndySonSon on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 03:43:33 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

            •  Unfortunately, it seems that (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JBraden, tommypaine, OGGoldy, MichaelNY

              many liberals tend to think more emotionally than rationally in this regard.  Case in point was all the money dumped on Alan Grayson in 2010, when he lost big, and in 2012, when he really didn't need most of it.

              Of course, those on the right often do the same.  I recall a Republican (I think on RRH) who said maybe it wouldn't be so bad if Bachmann lost or didn't run in that the money dropped on her could be spent on other Republicans presumably not so prone to self-promotion and outrageous statements.  And then there were all the millions wasted on Allen West.

              37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

              by Mike in MD on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:48:07 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  Response (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JGibson, MichaelNY

              The point of my exercise was to demonstrate that she is currently one of the 17 most vulnerable Republican seats that we can target right now. I did not say this was an easy pickup. I did not say this would be an easily held seat (in fact, I said as much in my first post that we probably wouldn't hold this seat for more than a term). Part of this is to demonstrate how difficult it is to win back the majority in the House. I have no illusions about the difficulty of winning this seat. I merely think that if we run Graves again, we can win the seat.

              It also seems that people haven't gathered my sentiment despite me stating it several times. I don't want the DCCC blowing millions of dollars on this race. I think Graves should have some moderate campaign infrastructure support, but in terms of funding, his campaign should be almost entire self-funded.

              It isn't about "feeling good" in unseating her. It's one thing for people like Jim Demint, Steve Stockman, Marsha Blackburn, and the like to say outlandish things. It's another when Bachmann makes assertions that Huma Abedin is associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, causing actual national security issues for our State Department. It's another when she states on national television in front of millions of people that vaccinations are a direct cause of autism and should be avoided at all costs. And it's not just that she does direct rhetorical damage to our country, it's that she's vulnerable to defeat.

              Based on past performance, it is evident that she is vulnerable to a general election defeat. The fact that Bachmann had to outspend Graves 10-to-1 in an R+10 district just to win by 1% in a Presidential year should make it quite evident how much she underperforms.

              The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

              by AndySonSon on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 02:12:25 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  I'd like Graves to run again (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        WisJohn, lordpet8, MichaelNY

        He came close and he can self fund right?

        If not him, this is one of those few races where I think having a self funder can make a difference given how much money Bachmann raises.

        •  Correct (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JGibson, MichaelNY

          I think that's why he's the right candidate for this district in a way that Tinklenberg wasn't - that he can match Bachmann's absurd fundraising (if he'll actually invest personal cash in it; he only put in $250K last time) and has the right profile for the district.

          The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

          by AndySonSon on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:25:33 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  comments (7+ / 0-)

      Coffman is not similar to Miller. Miller won only because Dems screwed up the primary and would likely lose to any Dem in the general. Coffman beat a credible, reasonably well funded Dem. I think Dems can do better there than Miklosi did in 2012 but for now I would make Coffman a slight favorite with midterm turnout.

      Bachmann is probably not that vulnerable. I think she did worse than usual in 2012 because she was coming off a humiliating presidential run. Dems should probably run Graves or another self-funder to divert GOP contributions from people who need them more, but they should not spend their own money on this race.

      Tim Walberg (MI7) should probably be on the list, he beat an unfunded nutball by just 10 and Obama lost by just 3.

      If I'm the Dems, I probably make the priorities:

      1. take CA31 (should not take that much $ to secure)
      2. protect these seats, in rough order: Murphy FL18, Barber AZ2, McIntyre NC7, Matheson UT4, Owens NY21, Barrow GA12, Garcia FL26, Rahall WV3, S Peters CA52, Esty CT5, Kirkpatrick AZ1, Ruiz CA36, Bera CA7, CSP NH1, Sinema AZ9, S Maloney NY18. I think Schneider and Tierney are safer than their margins suggest.
      3. GOP-held seats, starting with CO6.
       

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:23:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Response (0+ / 0-)

        I believe they're "similar" in that I believe they both won through relative flukes. Miller's fluke is easy enough to understand, and as I said above, I have no doubt in my mind that he would've lost to Aguilar in 2012 if Aguilar had gotten past the primary. As far as Miklosi goes, you can see in the 3Q 2012 fundraising report roundup that he was not, in fact, "reasonably well funded." Coffman beat Miklosi in overall fundraising for the cycle nearly 2-to-1, and in the final month of the campaign, Coffman still had $1.1M COH, whereas Miklosi only had $128K COH. He wasn't aptly supported by the DCCC, and his personal fundraising didn't match that of Coffman. You also have to factor in Kathy Polhemus stripping Miklosi of nearly 4% of the vote. Despite all of this, Coffman only managed to win by 2% and couldn't even get a majority of the vote. I think that indicates extreme weakness. I think part of the reason I'm warmer to Romanoff than others is because I only barely knew of him because I only started getting deeply interested in electoral politics late in 2010 (though I do remember seeing him talking on CNN about having to take a second mortgage on his house for the campaign). However, he can hold Coffman at fundraising parity and likely won't have a split left-leaning vote to worry about. As such, if Romanoff is our nominee, I think he's definitely favored over Coffman.

        As I stated above, I think we should run Graves again precisely because he can self-fund his campaign. I think her Presidential campaign had a lot to do with angering voters in her district, but I don't think that frustration is going to go away. She's going to keep making crazy comments in the next two years just as she's made these crazy comments all throughout the last six years, and I think that will keep her very vulnerable.

        I currently have Tim Walberg on my second-tier list. I think the districts I listed above are probably more vulnerable than him, but I think he's probably at the top of my second-tier list. He does seem vulnerable, and I think his ties to the Tea Party Caucus could be very damaging if we made a big deal about it.

        The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

        by AndySonSon on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:53:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Plenty of incumbents outraise their opponents. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          For a few examples, look at New York.  Kathy Hochul far outraised Chris Collins (although I'm wondering if OpenSecrets is throwing in her special election money); Nan Hayworth apparently outraised Sean Patrick Maloney 3:2, which is about the ratio by which Quico Canseco outraised Pete Gallego.  Allen West outraised Patrick Murphy by 4:1, and presumably some of that wasn't even spent paying back his direct mail firm.  

          Admittedly, Coffman had a big campaign spending edge, but keep in mind that outside spending apparently was against Coffman by quite a bit between the DCCC, the House Majority PAC, and the SEIU.

          Is it possible Coffman would have lost under other circumstances?  Sure.  But this isn't a safe Democratic seat; it's a swing seat that was only about half a point more Democratic than the national results in both 2004 and in 2008, with no apparent trend between those two elections.  And 2012 was a pretty good Democratic year.  There's no guarantee at all that 2014 or 2016 will be good Democratic years.  And if not, then you still have an incumbent in a swing seat.  

          And the same for IA-03, by the way.  Good Democratic opportunities under the right circumstances?  Absolutely.  Certain or likely pickups? I think that's premature.

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

          by Xenocrypt on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 02:28:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I don't see the need to protect Matheson's seat... (0+ / 0-)

        Since he not only votes against every single progressive goal, but also has voted against Pelosi for Speaker for 3 cycles now. But then, I hate Matheson because I think he's useless. I'd say he should be the lowest priority of any of those seats you've mentioned though.

        I think the Ruiz, Murphy, and Kirkpatrick are highest priority for defense, and CO6 highest priority for taking it.

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:54:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Many here will disagree (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Gygaxian, Stephen Wolf, bumiputera, gabjoh

          with you, but I basically agree with this. Of course you have to imagine he wouldn't vote against Pelosi with the speakership on the line. If you don't accept that premise, then of course you want to throw him overboard.

          The bottom line however, is the DCCC must protect its incumbents barring some sort of scandal, etc and therefore he will get all the resources he needs.

        •  I wouldn't say I hate Matheson et al (5+ / 0-)

          but I'll put it this way: I'd have triaged him, Mike McIntyre, etc. in a heart beat if doing so could have put David Gill and Joe Miklosi over the top.

          It does liberalism a real disservice that the DCCC values nearly every incumbent over every challenger (Larry Kissell's aside). In fact it's kind of interesting that Kissell lost by 8 without DCCC funding and McIntyre barely won with it, I'd have expected that difference to be a modest amount wider.

          •  So would I (0+ / 0-)

            In fact, I would trade Matheson, McIntyre, and Barrow for a Rob Zerban win against Paul Ryan.

            Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

            by Gygaxian on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 02:13:20 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Well the consideration you have to keep in mind (4+ / 0-)

              for Reps like Matheson and to a lesser extent Barrow, is that they represent our bench in the state. McIntyre will never get elected statewide and in retrospect I would have 100% triaged him. With the other two it's more of whether you're willing to make a tradeoff since no Democrat not named Jim Matheson is going to get elected statewide for the next several cycles.

              Knocking out people like Ryan, Bachmann, King, and West is great yes, but it's just like playing a game of wack a mole. There will always be batshit crazy Republicans popping up like Steve Stockman for every Allen West who goes down, so it's better to target the seats we can either hold or use to advance our policy goals. Zerban wouldn't have won under pretty much any scenario with Paul Ryan being on the presidential ticket, but I guarantee you if Wisconsin had a court-drawn map Ryan would be in deep trouble.

              •  You have a point, but (0+ / 0-)

                Matheson doesn't help the Utah Dems whatsoever; isn't promoting and support the state party part of what the political "bench"'s obligation's are?

                I'm sure the rest of the conservadems at least promote their lower-level political allies, and at the very least help rising stars in their own party; Matheson does nothing of the sort. Like that Ben McAdams guy, the one who pulled off a major victory in the Salt Lake County Mayor election in the year of Romneygeddon? Matheson wouldn't be seen with him. Nor would he take even a moment to help the legislature Dems, or even coordinate their campaign workers with his. I do kind of give him leeway this last year since he won by less than 800 votes, but he's apparently been aloof from the state party for a number of years, and hasn't helped to build it up at all.

                Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                by Gygaxian on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 02:33:49 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Didn't he campaign for Corron in 2010? (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  WisJohn, bumiputera

                  Also, yeah, he no doubt withheld from other candidates because he was in a mostly new district he had to scramble to get introduced to and he had a hyped opponent who had national Republicans rubbing their hands greedily, hoping that Romneygeddon in UT would both boot Matheson and elect a black woman in his place.  If 2014 is considerably easier for him, he should help out others in the party.

                  "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

                  by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 02:38:28 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  The only way he'll face as hard a fight... (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    gabjoh

                    Is if Mia Love runs against him again for a hyped-up rematch, which is still entirely possible. Otherwise, he's going to have a fairly easy time.

                    Actually, I could give a quick synopsis of the possible (and specifically probable) GOP candidates against Matheson in 2014, if you'd like. It's one of my areas of interest, since there's such a wide bench for the Republicans, and they all are salivating after how close they got this last time.

                    Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                    by Gygaxian on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 02:50:35 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Salivating, you say? (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Geez, when will they learn.  He very narrowly held on in 2002 in a wildly redrawn district that meandered from SLC to St. George.  Then he won more comfortably in 2004 while Bush won his district by 2-1.  He won in friggin' 2010 and then in 2012 against a much better candidate in a year when the Republican Presidential candidate was a full-on Mormon and his district was largely redrawn to include some new suburban area (i.e. containing an appreciable number of people who don't know the Matheson name).  2014 will have him with more familiarity with his district and no statewide elections.  It's hard to believe that a red district could be fool's gold for Republicans, but that's what it is.

                      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

                      by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 03:32:56 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Not saying that challenging Matheson is hopeless (0+ / 0-)

                        just that, at this point, it's more of a neverending chore rather than a mad dash to victory for the UT GOP.

                        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

                        by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 04:13:52 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  Yeah, and here's a list of the gold-seeking GOPers (4+ / 0-)

                        It's a bit informal (and from another forum at that), but here's all the Utah Republicans I think might try:

                        Mia Love: Mia Love is currently still Mayor of Saratoga Springs (I think her term comes up this year, but it may be a five year term that ends in 2015), and seeing as how she lost by only about 700 votes last year, it's very likely she'll try again. And to be honest, I think she may just beat Matheson this time. If she doesn't though, I predict she'll try for a different seat. She's young and popular though, so she has a lot of options open.

                        Merrill Cook: Merrill Cook (no relation to gubernatorial candidate Peter Cooke) is one of those odd guys who held elective office a while back and can't seem to shake the desire to hold office again, even when it's absolutely certain that they'll never be an elected politician ever again. He's also a crazy guy who lost at convention to a Republican that lost badly to Matheson, who took Cook's seat in 2000. Every two years since then, Cook tries and fails to get elected to something (including Matheson's seat), and provides a good joke every time. This time he ran for Salt Lake County Mayor and lost to a guy with anger issues and a guy who literally published falsehoods under a false name. Cook hates Matheson, so he may try again for Matheson's new seat.

                        Morgan Philpot: Philpot is like Merrill Cook, in that he hates Matheson and really sucks at getting elected to anything. Philpot's difference is that he's younger, has never been elected to federal Congress, and hates Governor Herbert and Obama more than Matheson. I think he's likelier than Cook to run against Matheson, but will serve the same role.

                        Carl Wimmer: He's a former state Rep (resigned to run against Matheson this last year in fact), but lost to Mia Love at convention. He's also the guy who wanted to effectively criminalize miscarriages. Yeah, seriously. He had some hilarity going on after his loss to Mia Love regarding his false claim of being hired by the Nevada GOP to fix their state party, but he's young, and I think he'll be back.

                        Stephen Sandstrom: Like Wimmer, Sandstrom is a former state representative. He also lost to Mia Love and is (was) also kind of crazy, since he's the guy who wanted to bring the Arizona-style immigration laws to Utah even after the LDS Church and a large portion of the rest of the state went "no that's stupid". Since then he's apparently met with several illegal immigrants and changed his tune. I'm thinking that tune-changing may be part of a future bid for Congress, but I doubt it. He's hated by the influential enforcement-only crowd in the Utah GOP and his old buddies would love to campaign against him.

                        Aaron Osmond: Yes, we seriously have an Osmond as a state senator here in Utah. This is not a joke. He actually represents part of my home city of West Jordan (though he isn't my own state senator), and has a decent reputation. He's actually charismatic and fairly reform-minded (for a Utah Republican), wanting to ban "boxcar bills" (basically opening a bill file, giving it a generic title, then waiting until the end of the legislative session to give it bill language), so he could have a chance if he wanted to run on a "clean slate" campaign. Also young-ish and etc. Doesn't have any scandals besides wanting to gut sex education in schools.

                        Thomas Wright: He doesn't have a Wiki or other page (only a Twitter page), but he's the Utah GOP State Chairman. He's done a pretty good job (though in Utah, you only have to have a pulse to do a fine job as GOP party chair), and seems to be a good advocate for the GOP. He's young and noncontroversial. His Democratic counterpart Jim Dabakis has gotten elected office, so I think he may want to "one-up" now-State Senator Dabakis by knocking down the Utah Dem's last hope in Congress. My gut feeling is that he's going to try for Governor in 2016 (especially if Herbert retires) though.

                        Mike Winder: I didn't have Mike Winder in the original list, but he could very well be a contender for Matheson's seat. He's the current Mayor of West Valley City, Utah's second largest city and a growing multicultural hub (if I remember correctly, it's population of Hispanics and other minorities is the biggest in Utah. Winder's public persona is that young, dynamic, relatively moderate, has really helped his city.... And he published articles promoting his city under a false name (Richard Burwash). Winder lost the GOP primary for Salt Lake County Mayor this year partially because of the Burwash thing, but time will probably heal that wound and Winder might try for Matheson's seat, though I think he'll try again for County Mayor in 2016. He also owns/has partnership in his family company of Winder Farms, a dairy-centered produce company. I hate buying milk from his company, but my family can't stand any other kinds of milk

                        Josh Romney also has possible interest in running against Matheson, as he actually lives in Utah, and was approached by the Utah GOP in 2010 to run against Matheson. Since the Romneys are ultra-popular here, he may even have a better chance than Mia Love did.

                        Thinking about it, I would also add state rep Ken Ivory to the list. He represents my own West Jordan state district, and is young-ish, charismatic, and is a protege of at least two major Utah politicians (Rob Bishop and Senate President Mike Waddoups). He's fairly well-known for his obsessive "sue the Feds for public land" Sagebrush Rebellion-esque plans, and for his ownership of the large real estate company Ivory Homes.

                        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

                        by Gygaxian on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 04:31:56 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

          •  Here's where I disagree (8+ / 0-)

            I would not have traded McIntyre or Matheson for Gill or Miklosi because we can run in those seats in 2014 and 2016 again and be competitive.  Both McIntyre and Matheson's seats will probably never go back to Democrats this decade if they lose, and they put us a lot closer to a majority.

            We're seeing how thin-stretched we are for winnable seats right now, and I agree that the best way to re-take a majority would be with redistricting reform.  But if Gene Taylor, Bobby Bright, Mark Critz, and Ben Chandler had not lost narrowly, and Dan Boren and Mike Ross hadn't retired, we would be a lot closer to a majority right now.  We will likely never win those seats back now (except maybe Chandler's).  It doesn't matter who the Democratic speaker is, as long as we control committees and a Democratic speaker can put Democratic bills up for votes.

            •  But Matheson would not vote for any serious (0+ / 0-)

              choice for a Democratic Speaker of the House. I guess you could say he'd be a non-factor in the battle for the House since he wouldn't vote for Boehner either, but if that's what Utah progressives are reduced to, then that's pathetic.

              Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

              by Gygaxian on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 04:36:33 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Chris Collins? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      Would Kathy Hochul be interested in another race?

    •  KY-06 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, madmojo, MichaelNY

      I'm still very bullish on this seat if we have a good candidate. Not having BHO on the ticket will help, as will a half decent Democratic candidate for Senate.

      23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 03:42:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  IA-01 (4+ / 0-)

    I posted my first take on the potential Republican field at Bleeding Heartland (includes latest voter registration numbers in the district by county).

    Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

    by desmoinesdem on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 01:55:26 PM PST

  •  Hagel nomination passes committee, 14-11 (7+ / 0-)

    with Vitter not voting yet. They are holding the vote open for him, but as Levin pointed out, his vote wont change the outcome.

    Question now is if Reid can get a floor vote by Friday(after which the Senate recesses).

    I think GOP will insist on a 60 vote threshold.

  •  MI-Gov: A few thoughts on Mark Schauer (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Gygaxian, itskevin, gabjoh

    Probably unnecessary disclaimer: I volunteered on Schauer's first congressional campaign, but now no longer live in Michigan and am nothing but an interested observer. But I really like Mark Schauer. He's one of the few topics that'll get me to actually log in and comment.

    If you follow the links in the article David linked to, you'll find both a Tim Skubick column and a Gongwer blog post. Neither really amounts to much more than idle speculation. But that's all I'm doing, too, and they make two points worth highlighting.

    First, while a Schauer candidacy doesn't necessarily clear the field (you'd still see a Bernero-type jump in), I think it would almost certainly mean that Gary Peters and any other prominent establishment Democrats are already out. He has enough of an institutional history (legislative leadership, two years in Congress, union support) that if he gets in he's probably the consensus preferred nominee among the power players in the MDP.

    Second, re: the Skubick column, a lot of it does just come down to whether or not he has the energy for a statewide campaign. Money and institutional support won't be a problem, but he went through two really ugly congressional campaigns and I don't think anyone would blame him if he's just done. That said, I don't know about Skubick's diagnosis of him just not being passionate enough.

    I also wonder if the upcoming leadership battle for the MDP is playing into Schauer's decision-making process. I won't speculate on whether he supports Brewer or Johnson, but it's possible that his decision to run depends in part on whether he thinks the state party is able to support his candidacy. And the timing of the leadership vote fits with the "month or so" timetable.

  •  from HuffPost front page (0+ / 0-)

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

    by BKGyptian89 on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 03:08:41 PM PST

  •  Inspired by the above: CA-52. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera

    While it might seem natural enough that a Republican would lose an urban district in California, I think Scott Peters' win in CA-52 might have been the (relatively) rare election where campaign spending made the difference.  

    Between outside general election spending and general election spending, Peters seems to have outspent Bilbray by about $800,000.  Although I suppose I don't know how to deal with Peters' vast primary spending, given California's top-two system.  (But I really wish OpenSecrets would keep track of primary campaign spending vs. general election campaign spending.)

    Anyway, whatever the numbers, Peters had a lot of money, much of it his own.  And this was basically a swing seat in 2004 (Cook has it at 51/49 Bush, more or less the national numbers) and in 2012 (about D+1), although Obama did better here in 2008 (it was about D+2).  Despite those two facts, Peters still did worse than many Democrats in comparable seats running against incumbents did:

    (It's cut off, but he did about as well as Schneider did in a bluer district.)

    So without Peters' heavy self-funding, would Bilbray have won?  Would he have been able to establish himself?  How would Saldaña have done, if she had been the (de facto) nominee?

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 03:09:13 PM PST

  •  GA6 poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jncca, James Allen, MichaelNY

    Seems plausible to me. One candidate with a lot of name rec around 40, a bunch of candidates with much less name rec way behind, and a lot of undecideds. That's about what you expect before a campaign starts.

    It doesn't mean Handel would be favored. At the same stage in HI2 last cycle, Mufi Hannemann was ahead of Tulsi Gabbard by some ridiculous margin like 67-19. It was all name rec, and she eventually blew his doors off.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 03:18:07 PM PST

  •  MI: Snyder 36% job approval (10+ / 0-)

    www.buonoforgovernor.com

    by Paleo on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 03:21:55 PM PST

    •  '14 shaping up to be a big yr for Dems in Michigan (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, Gygaxian, JBraden, madmojo

      Governorship looks ripe for the picking.  AG if Whitmer runs for that, it will a competitve and winnable, it's a good chance we flip the house, and make huge gains in the senate, but come short. Like Dems did in Pennsylvania, afters decades of being stuck in 20 and 19  seats they damn near took it, almost came short of a 50-50 tie.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

      by BKGyptian89 on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 04:19:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Michigan gubernatorial race (0+ / 0-)

        sounds like it'll be a spectacle. Too bad Whitmer didn't go for it, she sounds like a fantastic candidate. I'm not as familiar with Michigan politics though (I'm more familiar with Wisconsin, only because of the huge news on the recall elections and union stuff), so who else is a possible contender against Snyder?

        Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

        by Gygaxian on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 06:33:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  IMO (0+ / 0-)

          I think Rep. Gary Peters is the strongest Dem. He served in the state senate which I believe he was the Dem/minority leader, and he lost a heartbreaker in the AG race in '02 when Granholm vacated it to successfully run for Governor.

          Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

          by BKGyptian89 on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 06:54:57 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Per Wikipedia, Peters was Caucus Chair (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca

            So, leadership, but not leader. You may have merged Peters and Schauer together in your mind-- here's a quick guide to the four most frequently-mentioned in connection to the race:

            US Rep. Gary Peters
            - Elected to US House, 2008 - Present
            - Michigan Lottery Commissioner, 2003 - 2007
            - Democratic Nominee for AG, 2002 (lost by 0.17%)
            - Michigan Senate, 1994 - 2002 (term-limited out)

            Former US Rep. Mark Schauer
            - Elected to US House, 2008; lost reelection, 2010
            - Michigan Senate, 2002 - 2008; Minority Leader, 2006 - 2008
            - Michigan House, 1996 - 2002

            Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero
            - Democratic nominee for Governor, 2010 (lost by 18%)
            - Mayor of Lansing, 2005 - Present
            - Michigan Senate, 2002 - 2005
            - Michigan House, 2000 - 2002

            State Sen. Gretchen Whitmer (declined to run last month)
            - Filed paperwork to run for AG in 2010, dropped out before nominating convention
            - Michigan Senate, 2006 - Present; Minority Leader, 2010 - Present
            - Michigan House, 2000 - 2006

      •  SoS, too (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        abgin

        If Joceyln Benson runs for SoS, it's hers, this time around.  She got within five points during the Red Wave of 2010, when other Dems were wiped out in double-digits.  Between 2014 certainly being better than 2010, and Ruth Johnson having so many flubs in her job, thus far, Jocelyn would win this walking away.

  •  NJ numbers downballot (8+ / 0-)

    Dems have a 15 point lead in the legislative generic.

    www.buonoforgovernor.com

    by Paleo on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 03:28:20 PM PST

  •  Seattle area election results (0+ / 0-)

    Hey folks,
    I'm trying to find out how Mercer Island, Yarrow Point, Clyde Hill, Hunts Point, and Medina voted in 2012 (and 2004). Does anyone know where I can find that data? I can't seem to find '12 precinct data on the King County elections site.

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 04:35:14 PM PST

  •  Utah Congressional districts. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gygaxian, gabjoh

    Assuming Utah gains a seat next census (Possibility. I don't know what the current projections are), and the Republicans still control the governorship and the legislature, will they cave in and just draw a SLC Dem vote sink?

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -7.00, -3.13, Coya shouldn't have been sent home.

    by WisJohn on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 04:38:56 PM PST

    •  Possibly, but knowing the Utah GOP (0+ / 0-)

      Probably not. They didn't give up on gerrymandering when Matheson already had the most Republican district held by a Democrat in the nation, so they wouldn't give up when they can just gerrymander again to have another free seat. We should really just up the number of representative seats in the national Congress so there's less gerrymandering idiocy though.

      Assuming they did though, it'd be an interesting quandary; the Utah Democrats would never be able to compete statewide (even less so than now), but the entire group of SLC legislator Dems could compete for a US House seat.

      Utah would probably need 3 million people for a 5th seat in any case. I don't know how likely that is.

      Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

      by Gygaxian on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 04:56:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  They showed restraint, believe it or not (0+ / 0-)

        Had they done a 4-corners map, and evened out all of the PVIs, Matheson wouldn't have won.

        •  I prefer to think (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          that they were just overconfident and sloppy. They seemed to think that 2010 would become the norm for Utah elections, that they just had to get the candidate who hit all the right buttons, and just throw money at that candidate.

          Leftist Mormon in Utah, Born in Washington State, live in UT-04 (Matheson).

          by Gygaxian on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 06:20:59 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  There are other factors (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            The representatives did not want even a sliver more than necessary of Salt Lake City in UT-1 or UT-3. This is why these districts are much more Republican than even the state as a whole, which is already incredibly Republican

    •  They'd be fools to (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, Audrid

      1. the state will still be heavily R
      2. there's no VRA requiring them too
      3. there's zero risk of a dummymander causing them to lose two districts if they crack SLC again. It would be Matheson and four Republicans at worst, so why the hell would they sink it?

      That would be like Massachusetts Dems drawing a vote sink for Republicans. There's literally zero reason for Utah Republicans to do that aside from members like Chaffetz and Bishops being idiots and demanding R+30 districts because, well, they like them.

    •  They won't be able to slice it 5 ways (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Especially if Salt Lake County keeps growing and bluening. It would be suicide. They'll votesink it.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Wed Feb 13, 2013 at 04:18:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  See that Rubio response? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MetroGnome

    Aside from that sudden and very noticeable water break, he sounds like he's on the verge of slurred speech.

    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

    by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 08:19:06 PM PST

    •  What a mess (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MetroGnome

      For a second, he sounded like Elmer Fudd.

      26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 08:24:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Killed him (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      That moment was worse than Jindal's walk up to the camera during his response.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 09:24:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Meh, not that big a deal (4+ / 0-)

        I think the bigger deal is that his message wasn't very good.  It was a parroting of standard longtime GOP talking points, nothing more.  And it was delivered OK, but nothing memorable, nothing demonstrating any particular charisma or other ability to connect to an audience.

        The water moment is mockable, but not much more.

        I do think Rubio is badly overstated overall as a quality candidate.  He's jammed himself with immigration, he'll have to help get a path to citizenship enacted that both he and the broad Hispanic population support, and that's going to hurt him with conservatives.  Or, he walks, and his main argument for his candidacy dissolves.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 09:32:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah that was not a good moment for him. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        And he seemed nervous the whole time prior to that too, constantly rubbing sweat from his face. So not ready for prime time.

        25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Wed Feb 13, 2013 at 04:19:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Gov: Walker to announce Medicaid expansion (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Audrid

    Link to story from Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel I'm not going to believe anything Walker or any of his spokespeople say until I get full confirmation that Walker is actually going to go through with some form of Medicaid expansion.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 11:40:13 PM PST

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