Skip to main content

Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest banner
Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning. Sign up here.
Leading Off:

MA-Sen: What a huge relief: On Friday, Republican ex-Sen. Scott Brown said he will not run in the special election to replace John Kerry, who was just confirmed as Secretary of State. Brown's singular appeal and universal name recognition made him the only Republican capable of making this a competitive race from the get-go, but without him in the race, it's hard to imagine the GOP stealing a Massachusetts Senate seat once again.

Of course, Brown had plenty of good reasons not to run. He caught lightning in a bottle in the 2010 special to fill Ted Kennedy's seat, when conservatives were convinced his election would block passage of Obamacare. Not only did that turn out to be badly wrong, but there's no defining issue fueling tea party rage right now that Brown could use to replicate his unlikely first run for office.

On top of that, he got turfed by eight points last year while running against a first-time candidate in the form of Elizabeth Warren. Warren certainly benefited from increased presidential-year turnout, but new polling from PPP showed Brown under 50 percent, with most undecideds saying they'd voted for Warren just a few months earlier. Those types of numbers painted a very difficult picture for Brown, who, after all, just endured a very bruising race—though he certainly would have caused plenty of difficulty for Democrats, too. But if he wants to run for something else, many Republicans have pushed him for next year's gubernatorial contest, a potentially easier affair in which he may well engage (though his statement made no mention of that possibility).

For now, though, the GOP has to turn to its various Plan B's, none of whom look particularly attractive. Continue reading below the fold to see what their (meager) options look like.

Former state Sen. Richard Tisei might have been their best bet, but he's already said no, too. You can also count 2010 gubernatorial nominee Charlie Baker out, as well as former state Treasurer Joe Malone, who went right for the Shermanesque statement.

There's ex-Gov. Bill Weld, who has sounded very uninterested... and also tried running for governor of New York (!) in 2006. Mitt Romney's former Lt. Gov Kerry Healey is a possibility, but she's an unknown, and anyway, would you want to run for office in the Bay State with a Romney anvil hanging around your neck? It sounds like the NRSC is reduced to meeting with a "businessman," one Gabriel Gomez. Okay.

Someone will run, though, and I wouldn't be surprised if this race winds up much closer than we'd like. Indeed, we absolute cannot get complacent and allow the mistakes our candidate made in the last special here to be repeated. It's why I've harped repeatedly on Rep. Ed Markey for failing to put up a legitimate campaign website. He may be the frontrunner, according to PPP, but he can't take anything for granted.

That's particularly true for the Democratic primary coming up on April 30, where conservative Rep. Stephen Lynch just entered the race. Lynch's campaign will be fueled by his tight union connections, but Markey is the only progressive running. PPP also had Markey up big in the primary, but again, we can afford no laurel-resting. Markey needs to really hit the ground running here, lock up liberal support, win the primary, and intimidate the GOP into realizing they shouldn't bother trying to compete.

The general election is June 25, and for progressives, this news changes nothing: It's still all hands on deck.


AK-Sen: Republican pollster Harper Polling is out with a couple of new Senate polls, one in Alaska, the other in Iowa. They find Gov. Sean Parnell leading a hypothetical GOP primary with 32 percent, with former half-term Gov. Sarah Palin at 27, Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell at 14, and 2010 Republican Senate nominee (LOL) Joe Miller at 12. Only Treadwell and Miller are likely to run, though, so these numbers are useless. (Does Sarah Palin even still live in Alaska? Is she still alive?)

Meanwhile, here's how Dem Sen. Mark Begich fares against this gruesome foursome:

• 52-29 vs. Miller

• 47-40 vs. Palin

• 44-34 vs. Treadwell

• 40-46 vs. Parnell

I don't know whether to buy any of these numbers—after all, Harper is still reporting to the hundredths of a percent. (Sort of reminds me of a giant-sized dude I knew in law school who once observed that "really short people know their height to five significant digits.") But I do buy that Joe Miller would be the Alaska GOP's most damaged candidate, so we must all light candles and pray for his success in the primary, okay?

IA-Sen: Harper's other survey also tested both the Republican primary and general election matchups. They tried a few kitchen-sinkish alternatives, but probably the most interesting is that Rep. Steve King outpaces fellow Rep. Tom Latham by a considerable margin in a one-on-one matchup, 46-29. (King leads in the other configurations as well, but by smaller amounts.) Meanwhile, Dem Rep. Bruce Braley beats King 39-34, while Latham leads 36-33. Meh—sure, the crazy King fares worse, as you'd expect, but there are just too many undecideds. Plus, Harper is still doing that ridiculous thing where the ask if you are "very conservative" or "somewhat conservative" on their ideology question, but just "liberal" with no gradations. This is just not the way to conduct a poll.

RI-Sen: Heh. Did you know that Rhode Island has another Senate race coming up next year? Hah, did you even know Rhode Island had one last year? Well, they sure did, and Dem Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse walloped virtual Some Dude Barry Hinckley without breaking a sweat, 65 to 35. And the upcoming contest is going to be even more of a joke, according to PPP. That's because Sen. Jack Reed starts off with an awesome 62-32 job approval rating, and leads a whole bunch of Republicans by no fewer than 29 points. Here's how he does, if you're dying to know:

• 63-34 vs. 2012 RI-01 candidate Brendan Doherty

• 60-30 vs. Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian

• 63-29 vs. Cranston Mayor Allan Fung

• 66-25 vs. ex-Gov Don Carcieri (ouch!)

• 75-10 vs. former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling (LOL!)

The Schilling matchup is truly hilarious: Tom Jensen calls it "the most lopsided general election Senate poll result we've ever found in the history of PPP." In case you haven't followed Schilling's post-baseball career, he's so hated because of the mess he created with his video game company, 38 Studios, which he moved from Massachusetts to Rhode Island after securing $75 million in loans from a quasi-public state agency. Despite the hefty support, the company abruptly went belly up in mid-2012, leading to a series of investigations, Schilling getting shellacked in the press, and now a 9-74 favorability rating. These poll numbers are so comically bad, I think you have to call them "afraid to leave the house" numbers!

Anyhow, to the extent any of the first three Republicans on this list bother to seek a promotion, it'll be in the governor's race. You can mark RI-Sen as Safe D for 2014.

SC-Sen-A, SC-Gov: I guess Lindsey Graham can breathe a sigh of relief... if he cares to. State Sen. Tom Davis was about the highest-profile name mentioned as a possible GOP primary challenge to Graham, who has often made lists of "wobbly Republican senators whom conservatives would like to beat with a stick." But a stick may be all they're left with, since Davis says he won't run against Graham (or Gov. Nikki Haley, either). He probably would have had a seriously uphill battle anyway, seeing as he barely registered in a hypothetical matchup PPP tested in December (David trailed Graham 67-17).


CT-Gov: State Senate Minority Leader John McKinney is the latest Republican to express interest in taking on Gov. Dan Malloy next year. He says he's "seriously considering" a gubernatorial bid but won't decide until May or June. (The state's legislative session ends June 5.)

NJ-Gov: It begins: New Jersey Democrats are starting to endorse Chris Christie for re-election, figuring his lead in the polls is so dominant that they'd better get on his good side while it still matters. The first to do so are the mayor and town council members of Harrison, a small burg in the northern part of the state near Newark. I'll bet they won't be the last. (Sort of reminds me of Rudy Giuliani's re-election campaign in 1997, where a similar dynamic obtained.)

OH-Gov: Hrm:

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and 42 of his Republican colleagues sent a letter to President Obama Friday vowing to block the confirmation of former Ohio Attorney General Richard Cordray.

"We will continue to oppose the consideration of any nominee, regardless of party affiliation, to be the CFPB director until key structural changes are made to ensure accountability and transparency at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau," the letter read. [...]

The White House said they will continue to fight for Cordray's confirmation, but will not support the Republican changes to the agency.

Two Democratic operatives close to Cordray told 10TV this week that if not confirmed, he will return to Ohio to run for governor in 2014.

Well, that sure sounds like a cloture-proof minority (thanks for caving on filibuster reform, Harry Reid!), so I don't know how Cordray can get appointed over that kind of opposition. But perhaps the possibility of a gubernatorial bid—this is the most explicit anyone has been about Cordray potentially running—is actually something of a threat. That is, if GOP Gov. John Kasich, who once served in the House and is pretty well-connected, still has friends in the Senate, they might let Cordray through (perhaps with some pro forma concessions from the White House) so that he doesn't actually run for governor. Wheels within wheels, my friends....


IA-01: Wait, another one? Democratic state Rep. Patrick Murphy—who mercifully goes by "Pat"—says he's "definitely interested" in running for Rep. Bruce Braley's House seat if Braley runs for Senate. That would make him Patrick Murphy 3.0: PM 2.0 represents Florida's 18th, of course, and PM 1.0 is the former Pennsylvania congressman who came up with this versioning system in the first place.

The Hotline's Alex Brown also suggests three more Dem names: state Rep. Tyler Olson, state Senate President Pam Jochum, and state Sen. Liz Mathis, whom you may remember from a hotly-contested special election in 2011 where control of the Senate was at stake.

IL-02: Year-end FEC reports for all federal candidates were due on Thursday, January 31—and that includes both candidates who ran in races last year, as well as those already running in this cycle. So that gives us our first look at the fundraising picture in the IL-02 special Democratic primary, and the money frontrunner may surprise you:

Candidate Raised Dates Cash-on-Hand
Robin Kelly $200,008 12/1 to 12/31 $198,468
Toi Hutchinson $135,992 11/27 to 12/31 $129,637
Anthony Beale $49,900 12/08 to 12/31 $44,175
Debbie Halvorson $25,900 10/1 to 12/31 $44,467
While Halvorson has had small leads in the two internal polls we've seen, and while a good chunk of the establishment seems to be backing Hutchinson (Halvorson's former chief-of-staff, in case you weren't aware), it's Kelly who is out in front. And while Kelly was able to hit that nice round $200K mark with a bit of personal money, it wasn't all that much (about $9K). Meanwhile, Halvorson only has as much cash-on-hand as she does thanks to a $25,000 personal loan. Without that, she'd even trail Chicago Alderman Anthony Beale, the "fourth wheel" in the race.

(Note: Each candidate filed with the FEC on a different date, so I've included the timeframe their new reports cover in the "Dates" column.)

NY-19: This sounds like a potentially fascinating get for Democrats: Based on an unnamed source, Capital Tonight reports that "investor and political activist" Sean Eldridge is preparing a bid against GOP Rep. Chris Gibson. Eldridge's husband is Chris Hughes, a Facebook co-founder, so he definitely has access to a lot of money. (Wikipedia says the couple's net worth is $500 million.) Remarkably, Eldridge himself rates a Wikipedia page, even though he's just 26 years old.

In any event, Gibson has done well carving out an "I'm not one of those crazy Republicans" profile for himself, but at 52 percent Obama, Democrats simply have to contest this seat in order to ever have a hope of retaking the House. Gibson faced a fairly stiff challenge from attorney Julian Schreibman last year, winning by a fairly narrow 53-47 edge, so he's definitely beatable. On top of that, the lower Hudson Valley has already demonstrated a willingness to elect a prominent gay political figure, given that Sean Maloney defeated Nan Hayworth one seat to the south in NY-18 in November. Could be another exciting candidacy in the region for a dude named Sean!

Grab Bag:

House: This new piece from Rhodes Cook at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball doesn't break new ground on how the one-two punch of spatial polarization and gerrymandering has consolidated GOP control of the House, but it does have a cool map at the end that elegantly underscores the magnitude of the problem. There's only one state that Mitt Romney won where the Dems took the majority of House seats (Arizona... and perhaps it's no coincidence that it's one of the few states that uses an independent redistricting commission), while there are seven states where Barack Obama won but the Republicans took the majority of House seats: Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Colorado. (And of course it's no coincidence that those are mostly the same states where the GOP has been floating their electoral college-rigging scheme.) (David Jarman)

Ideology: Gallup is out with its annual ranking of all 50 states according to how they shake out on the conservative-moderate-liberal spectrum (the WaPo has a handy heat map of the results at the link). The totem pole doesn't exactly match the list of how the states stacked up in the presidential election: On the one hand, states where even the Democrats self-identify as conservative (Alabama, Mississippi) are, in fact, most "conservative" even if they aren't the absolute reddest at the presidential level.

Conversely, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Oregon are states that show up as more liberal than their presidential results would warrant, probably partly because Dems are more likely to be "liberal" than "moderate" but more significantly because fewer of their Republicans identify as "conservative." Another interesting outlier is the aforementioned Alaska, red at the presidential level (though unmistakably trending in the Dems' way) but a state with the highest percentage of self-identified "moderates." Also note how much less conservative South Dakota is than North Dakota, which hopefully bodes well for Democrats defending the Senate seat there this cycle. (David Jarman)

Passings: Former New York City Mayor Ed Koch died on Friday morning at the age of 88. While I was pretty young when he was mayor and don't have strong memories of his time in Gracie Mansion (he left office in 1989, losing a primary to David Dinkins after serving three terms), he presided over the first wave of the city's comeback from the lows it hit in the 1970s and always maintained a "larger than life" profile while also famously polling passerby "How'm I doin'?"

In his later years, particularly following 9/11, Koch became more conservative, especially with regard to Israel, and even endorsed George W. Bush for re-election. I think local columnist Juan Gonzalez summed it up accurately in saying that Koch left behind a "controversial" legacy but "indelibly marked" this city—it probably would not be the same place without him. For a more complete look at his life and career, though, I would recommend the New York Times's obituary.

Polltopia: Well, at least Gallup's managed to get themselves to the first step, which is admitting you've got a problem. Actually, though, they're still in partial denial, starting out their mea culpa by saying that it's not so bad that they missed the final presidential result by five points, since there were "some fundamental issues with this election that affected many polls."

At any rate, Gallup's announced they're going to re-evaluate all aspects of their polling operations to try and regain what's left of their credibility. Contacting cellphone users is at the top of their list, but since using a large cellphone sample was one of the few things they were doing right in '12, there are several items further down the list they should be looking at more ("the likely voter screening process" and "basic representation of demographic categories"). (David Jarman)

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 05:00 AM PST.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  MA-Sen - As good as it is that Brown's not running (17+ / 0-)

    Democrats can't take anything for granted. It's still going to be a low turnout special election in June, and who ever thought Brown could win this far out from the 1/17/2010 special election?

    Markey can't afford to rest on his laurels - the Republican candidate will be well-funded thanks to Citizens United.

    Filibuster reform, 2013 - woulda, coulda, shoulda.

    by bear83 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 05:34:55 AM PST

  •  New Jersey Democrats (13+ / 0-)

    I hope NJ Dems remember the names of any Democrats who endorse Chris Christie.  Yes, he's likely to win.  Yes, some Democrats may even feel there are some (storm relief related reasons) not to attack Gov. Christie.  All of that is fine.  But unless there are some really extenuating circumstances, you support your party's nominee.  Barbara Buono seems like a perfectly fine candidate.  She's the only one so far with the guts to step up and challenge Christie.  She deserves the support of her party.

    No one should think the can get the benefits of having a (D) behind their name on the ballot when times are good without standing by the party and its candidates when times are more difficult.

    •  NJ Dems (0+ / 0-)

      Can't blame people here in NJ voting for Christie. Even I think the Democratic Party in NJ is run by bunch of scum bags.

    •  The dynamic (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Liberal Of Limeyland

      1. Democrats in North Jersey never got along with Democrats in South Jersey.  (There is no liberal v. conservative line here, it's just straight regional conflict.)  The South Jersey Democrats have always been cozier with Christie, in part because of the treatment Jim Florio and others got at the hands of the northern side of the party.

      2. There is no concept here (and elsewhere) of putting up a strong fight even if you're going to lose.  Christie had weak polling before hurricanes Irene and Sandy arrived: he is a one-issue candidate.  It buys him a burst of good publicity and probably bodes against a personal-negative campaign by Democrats, but marriage equality, the minimum wage, property taxes (on the way up to pay for his tax cuts) and the state's unemployment rate all all point issues that a well-focused challenger can make.

      Oh, yes.  We win when we lose.  If Christie wins by significantly less than expected after such a campaign, and especially if we pick up more legislative seats, he basically will have difficulty with the more ideologically focused parts of his agenda.  (And this helps even before the election.  If it's clear, for example, that the Democrats are going to hit hard on marriage equality, you don't think Christie will come up with a bill with some tweaks ("protect religious groups from being forced to accept this against their will" or some such nonsense) and getting it passed, getting it off the docket for November?

  •  He does not have the executive ability (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    nor the organizational skills to be a respected leader of the Commonwealth. He would have to surround himself with a staff that took care of everything and a Lt. Governor who did the real work. Then he could devote his time to glad-handing and preening himself for the v.p. spot on the GOP 2016 ticket.
    But maybe there is some deep dark secret that makes it impossible for him to run.

    •  No need for deep, dark secrets. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      oh yay another commenter

      Scott Brown is nothing more than a common schoolyard bully, as he demonstrated in his campaign against Sen. Warren (ohh, man, do I love saying that-- "Sen. Warren!") As long as we run a competent candidate against Brown in the gubernatorial, voters will once again see him for what he really is, and his supposed "nice-guy" image (which only existed because of his Central Casting looks) will vanish into thin air.

      29, chick, Jewish, solid progressive, NY-14 currently, FL-22 native, went to school in IL-01. "We need less of that War on Women, and more of that Warren woman!"-- writer Paul Myers.

      by The Caped Composer on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 10:45:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Tag Romney considering a run (9+ / 0-)

    Via Politico: Report: Tagg Romney eying Senate

    Tagg Romney, son of former GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, is considering a Senate run in Massachusetts’s upcoming special election, according to the Boston Herald.
    The Herald reported Monday that Romney was considering a bid to replace John Kerry in the seat that opened up after Kerry became Secretary of State. The Herald would not identify the source of its information.
    There are also calls for - Ann Romney to run. That would be fun.

    It is possible to read the history of this country as one long struggle to extend the liberties established in our Constitution to everyone in America. - Molly Ivins

    by se portland on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 06:17:20 AM PST

  •  MA-Sen: Kerry Healey (11+ / 0-)

    is not an "unknown." She was Lt. Gov. and GOP nominee against Deval Patrick in 2006. She's been on TV a lot since (talking head after Pres debates, etc.) and is well known here. Given the way she ran that campaign (racially tinged ads about white women being in danger if the "soft-on-crime" black guy got in) (yes, I know 2006 wasn't 1988, but she didn't), being well known doesn't mean she's well regarded.

    She and her husband are wealthy enough to fund much of a campaign themselves. With Tisei out, I'd expect Mass. GOP to ask her to run. I think Markey would beat her. My biggest concern is having someone else enter Dem primary and Lynch gets in. That would be unacceptable

    Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

    by fenway49 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 06:24:51 AM PST

    •  Excellent reasons (4+ / 0-)

      why Markey and the Mass Democratic party can't be complacent this time around.  Even with Brown gone (for now), they can't afford to view this as a coronation.

      •  Don't think they are (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Markey is running much harder with Lynch in the fold. Saw a report a popular DA (Gerry Leone) was considering a run, which could cause problems for Markey in the primary.

        It would be nice to see Markey's website become operational, but I was at his kickoff event on Saturday and there were over a thousand fired-up people there. Who says we're burned out on elections?

        Republicans...think the American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people. And they admire the Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it. Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:26:01 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Romney name is hated in Ma (7+ / 0-)

    I guess if he wants to keep up the tradition of Romney's losing elections go for it. I come from Ma and no republican can win this election as long as Markey campaigns and shows respect to the voters.
    Don't forget Brown had an issue to run on as the vote to stop Obamacare which wasn't even that popular in Ma. The only vote that will matter will be the primary.
    Republicans can win governors races in Ma but the Brown win was a fluke not to be repeated.

  •  The "phew" and tone of relief... (3+ / 0-)

    ...definitely express the wrong psychology here.

    Perhaps try: "Scott Brown chickens out on Senate run in order to cash in on key votes"

    He'll be announcing his financial services industry job any minute...

    Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

    by Minerva on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 06:31:26 AM PST

  •  I can't (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    blame people here in NJ voting for Christie. Even I think the Democratic Party in NJ is run by bunch of scum bags.

  •  Ed Koch's Legacy (9+ / 0-)

    He left a huge legacy on NYC and his first term played a major role in turning the city around after the 1970s fiscal crisis.  I had my issues with him in his later years but I do think it is fair to say NYC would not have turned around as fast as it did without him.

    On a personal note, he also played a very personal role in my life and political development.  My parents were advisers to him in his pre-mayoral career and my mother managed his first race for the City Council.  I still have one clear memory of walking around a Central Park playground with him and my mother at age 3.  I like to joke I was a campaign prop at age 3.

    I also volunteered on his 1977 Mayoral race as an early teen and my dad worked in his first Administration for a few years.  After my dad left the Admin to do other things they drifted apart but Koch did agree to speak at my father's memorial service when he past away 5 yrs ago.

    Involvement with his campaigns no doubt stoked my interest in politics which remains today.

    •  I worked on that campaign too! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody, Liberal Of Limeyland

      In fact, I worked on it a lot. It was college age for me, and I had a lot of time.

    •  Small things can be BIG! (3+ / 0-)

      I remember Ed Koch most for the pooper scoop rules!

      Before he was Mayor, the sidewalks and gutters in NYC were like a field of landmines. At any moment of inattention you could step in a stinking deposit of dog poop.

      Hizzoner put thru the rules and announced that they would be enforced. And with his force of personality, he made it seem like the right thing, that everyone should do and would do. So they did.

      Everybody had to scoop up their pets' leavings and properly dispose of the stuff. The nay-sayers had scoffed that nobody would follow the rules. Even today everybody follows these rules. (If you see someone not picking up their dog's poop, you'll think that you don't want to stand near the edge of the subway platform when that crazy guy is around.)

      This change in handling dog poop was a major step up in the urban quality of life. You will laugh at this bold-faced assertion only if you have never stepped into fresh dog poop.


      A less important change, but also laudable, Hizzonor got the street signs reading "Avenue of the Americas" changed to include "6th Ave". It was, after all, halfway between 5th Ave and 7th Ave. And every New Yorker called it 6th Ave.

      The name of the street had been changed to the somewhat pompous Avenue of the Americas in an attempt to upgrade its image after the "El" was taken down.

      By Koch's time the avenue was no longer humble. But every bewildered tourist in Midtown wondered where the heck they were until Koch fixed that problem.

      Getting real, and calling things what they were, was one of the things we all loved about Ed Koch, the no-nonsense, tell it like it is, down to earth New Yorker.

  •  I don't know if we should reject a pollster's (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    numbers JUST because they are reported to a silly degree of precision, although I do agree it's a silly degree of precision. It could be some software default. For example, R, by default, reports means to 2 decimal places but reports other statistics to much higher precision.  SAS also (by default) reports a large number of decimal places.

    OK, they could do some rounding before reporting, but I still wouldn't assume that a failure to do so means their numbers aren't reliable.  

    •  polls (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      They often publish the total number of respondents that supported each candidate, which is the same thing as including more decimal places. They're usually discouraged from doing that because it creates a false sense of precision, but it doesn't invalidate their results.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:03:58 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  "Resuming episode" resuming (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    That was so much fun last time, let's do it again! I'd already put it into my sig even before today.

    Resuming episode.

    My political compass: - 8.38,-6.97

    by pucklady on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 06:39:52 AM PST

  •  On Gallup (5+ / 0-)

    at a statistics conference I met a guy who used to work for Gallup. He said that he and a lot of other smart people left because of issues with management.

  •  Low fundraising numbers in IL-2. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Adam B, Woody

    Those are low fundraising numbers for a Congressional race. It's closer to what I'd expect for a State Representative race in Illinois.

    I'm sure part of it is the short timeline of the special election. But, it's also typical for the trouble African-American candidates usually have raising money. It's one more reason why so few black candidates are elected in more expensive statewide races for Senate and Governor.
    I suppose that's a problem DailyKos can help rectify now that they've endorsed Robin Kelly.

  •  Former Senator Brown did not "steal" his election. (7+ / 0-)

    It is said that those who fail to learn from their mistakes, are destined to repeat them.  Accusing Scott Brown of "stealing an election" or "catching lighting in a bottle" is ridiculous.  If David Nir wants to be accurate, he would properly point blame at an aloof opponent and state party machine asleep at the switch.

    The 2010 election of Brown was a result of a hungry candidate who connected with an independent minded, albeit off-year electorate, that was receptive to his message, and turned-off by a weak Democratic candidate who chose to "phone-in" her campaign.  Brown, supported by internal and external Republican donors won the special election fair and square.  There were no dirty tricks or voting irregularities that I'm aware of.  As painful as it remains for many of us to have watched the late "lion of the senate" replaced by Brown's brand of politics, the truth is, those voters who cared enough to show-up at the polls gave Massachusetts what it asked for.

    By contrast, Senator Warren performed masterfully and admirably two years later to not only expose Brown as a lightweight, but more importantly, recapture a long-held progressive senate seat, based on a campaign of ideas, issues, facts and strong record of meaningful accomplishment.  And she did it all by exercising grace and class in the face of sleazy campaign tactics hurled by the short-lived "Mr. Nice Guy" Brown persona.

    "The highest patriotism is not a blind acceptance of official policy, but a love of one's country deep enough to call her to a higher plain." --George McGovern

    by Progressive Pride on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 07:19:14 AM PST

    •  Not to speak for David, but ... (4+ / 0-)

      .... I think what he means by "steal" is not that Brown did anything corrupt or shifty but actually, as you say, caught the "aloof opponent and state party machine asleep at the switch."  Like an underdog basketball team who has practiced really hard and plays a perfect game, and catches the heavily favored team looking past the game -- we say that "that team stole one."  In that respect, I would say it's accurate to say he  "caught lightening in the bottle," and "stole an election" that our side would have won had everyone been taking it seriously from the start (like, as you correctly say, Elizabeth Warren did).

  •  Horrors!!!!! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Western Civilization is collapsing!!!!!

  •  Thanks for Nothing! (0+ / 0-)

    "thanks for caving on filibuster reform, Harry Reid!"

    Harry, don't you think that it is time that you hang it up and go home to Nevada and hand the job of Majority Leader to someone more capable?  I do.  I believe it was Oliver Cromwell who told the English parliament almost 400 years ago, "For God's sake, GO!"  Your continual caving in to the Republicans, especially as regards filibuster reform, compels me to say, "For God's sake, Harry, GO!!  Just go home!"

  •  Brown had plenty of good reasons not to run (0+ / 0-)

    I'm pretty sure the drunk texting incident was the last straw.  Hard to explain away.

  •  There are rumblings about a Romney for MA sen/nt (0+ / 0-)

    All of the ones I've seen are about Tagg, but I don't see why Mitt himself couldn't go for it, the ex-governor living as he does in his son's basement.

    •  With Brown out (0+ / 0-)

      I doubt the state party will want anybody to run in the special that isn't able to self-fund. They aren't going to want to blow money on a special election when the seat is up in the 2014 general and there's a governor's race.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site