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Pres-by-CD: The lighting in the Superdome wasn't the only thing that got turned back on on Sunday...the SSP Labs Pres-by-CD machine is back too! (Too soon?)

Anyways, we're bringing you 15 new districts today, spanning four states:

Massachusetts (Statewide)
Missouri (MO-02 and MO-03)
New York (NY-01)
Texas (TX-11, TX-19, and TX-35)

First up are provisional results from Massachusetts. "Why are they provisional?", you might be asking. Well, it appears that official results by town got lost along with the sleeves on Bill Belichick's game-day hoodie. (On the "unseemly and disgraceful" scale, the Secretary of Commonwealth's failure to publish that information comes in right around the Patriots' er, home videos.) In the meantime, we're mashing together results we've received from individual towns and the Boston Globe's 2012 results page as a crutch. (We'll provide updates when we get official results by town, even if we have to hike to Beacon Hill in Tom Brady's Uggs to get them.)

As for the results themselves, there's nothing particularly surprising, though we continue to see differentiation among the seats held by the all-Democratic delegation. Rep. John Tierney gets credit for holding the reddest seat in the state (54.7% Obama), though fellow Rep. Bill Keating's MA-09 comes close, having suffered a rather sharp drop to 55.4% Obama. This is looking ahead (knock wood), but Dems should have no problem holding the seats of either Ed Markey (65% Obama) or Stephen Lynch (58% Obama) should one get elected to the Senate, though the thought of the latter makes me cringe like a Billy Cundiff field goal.

Meanwhile, in Missouri, results from St. Charles County allow us to finish MO-02 and MO-03. Given the sharp drop in Obama's performance in the state (and in MO-02 especially, which is now 57-41 Romney), one wonders how Russ Carnahan would have fared had he chosen to run for that open seat. (Instead, he chose to run in MO-01, and now we're all free to ponder which is sadder...Carnahan's 63-34 loss at the hands of fellow Dem Lacy Clay in the August primary, or Mark Sanchez's loss of the football at the butt of fellow New York Jet Brandon Moore in Week 12.)

Speaking of New York, data from Suffolk County means that NY-01 is complete (much like Colin Kaepernick's sweet toss to Ed Reed). This district was surprisingly close, with about 1,600 votes separating Obama and Romney here for a 49.6-49.1 result. (PA-08 is still the closest district calculated thus far.) Dem incumbent Tim Bishop seemed to attract just enough crossover support, hanging on by 5 points.

Lastly, there's a smattering of not-particularly-interesting Texas districts, with two falling into the heavily Republican camp—the west Texas-based TX-11 (79% Romney) and TX-19 (74% Romney), and one falling into the heavily Democratic camp—the Austin-to-San Antonio TX-35 (63% Obama).

In addition, we've received more detailed data from several jurisdictions in Florida (which now has an awesome statewide precinct file!) and Bell County, TX, allowing us to update a smattering of districts in those jurisdictions.

Florida (FL-05, FL-07, FL-23 through FL-27)
Texas (TX-25 and TX-31)

Accordingly, the following changes were made to vote totals and percentages.

District Obama Romney Total Obama% Romney%
FL-05 +488 -159 +329 +0.09% -0.09%
FL-07 -488 +159 -329 -0.10% +0.10%
FL-23 -33 -4 -35 -0.00% +0.00%
FL-24 +326 -10 +311 +0.02% -0.02%
FL-25 -700 -439 -1,149 -0.06% +0.06%
FL-26 +163 +194 +356 -0.01% +0.01%
FL-27 +244 +260 +517 -0.01% +0.01%
TX-25 -174 -460 -638 +0.02% -0.03%
TX-31 +174 +460 +638 -0.03% +0.03%
Better data from Miami-Dade County allowed us to resolve split precincts, while both Bell TX and Volusia FL gave us early votes allocated by precinct. The largest changes is that Obama's performance in the heavily Democratic Jacksonville-Gainesville-Orlando FL-05 was understated by 0.1% and overstated by 0.1% in adjoining FL-07. (FL-05 could have been the Tim Tebow district, but it turns out that not even Jacksonville wants him...)

The trend we've been seeing with these adjustments is that our early vote formulas tend to overstate Obama's performance in Republican districts and Romney's performance in Democratic districts, with the distortion being larger in states with larger shares of early voting. Interestingly enough, that means the districts are likely even more polarized than currently calculated to be. Of the results we've calculated so far, this will be the biggest issue in North Carolina, where 20% of ballots were not allocated to precincts at first pass and in some counties, almost 75% of ballots were unallocable (fortunately, better data have already started trickling in). This will also be an issue in Maryland (20% of ballots were also unallocable there), though less of one, as unallocable ballots never constitute more than 30% of the votes cast in a given jurisdiction. We're not expecting better results there, but hey, the Lombardi trophy is fine just as it is. (jeffmd)

11:09 AM PT (David Jarman): MA-Sen: Unless you were spending last Friday exploring a particularly large cave, you know that the big news out of the Bay State was that Republican ex-Sen. Scott Brown won't be running in the special election to replace John Kerry. That led to a weekend's worth of fallout, though, as the Republicans tried to figure out what Plan B would be, in a state where the bench doesn't even seem to contain a Plan C.

Probably the next best option for the GOP was Richard Tisei, the former state Sen. who was the losing Lt. Gov. candidate in 2010 and then a narrow loser in last year's MA-06 election against damaged Dem incumbent John Tierney, a race where the polls had given him a significant lead heading into November. However, he was the first domino to fall, with a statement on Saturday saying "the timing is simply not right for me."

So, the fickle finger then pointed to William Weld, who won two convincing electoral victories as Governor back in the 1990s. Weld came with a few problems, though, perhaps most notably that he was out of the state for most of the 2000s, in fact exploring a New York gubernatorial run in 2006. He is back in Massachusetts now, but his seemingly short attention span was a big strike against him, and on Monday morning he too pulled his name from consideration.

Working our way further down the totem pole, the next option seemed to be Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, who was Mitt Romney's #2 and then badly lost the 2006 gubernatorial race. While she hasn't specifically withdrawn from consideration, "sources" say she's unlikely to get in.

So, if you can't get a Romney administration vet... why not get an actual Romney? With that in mind, on Monday morning, the name of Tagg Romney (the Romney son who was most actively involved in the presidential campaign) started popping up. Aside from the wee problems that he's never run for office before, has a last name that's pretty much mud in the Commonwealth, and has some sketchy friends in the finance world, what could possibly go wrong? Well, he might decide not to show up, either, as ABC News reported on Monday afternoon that close sources say he's not interested either.

OK, well, how about Ann Romney? The would-be-First Lady got some ink too over the weekend, and nobody has even bothered rebutting that... probably because of the sheer ridiculousness of the suggestion.

So, it seems like the GOP's rolls-of-the-dice at this point are obscure moderate state legislator, or charismatic outsider. The top option among the former category seems to be state Rep. Dan Winslow, who floated his name on Friday, and hasn't subsequently taken his name out of consideration.

As far as the latter category goes, the NRSC has apparently been talking to Gabriel Gomez, a businessman who seems to check a number of boxes for them (ex-Navy SEAL! and a Latino!). However, picking Gomez seems like it'd be a way to double-down with the hard-right base and give up hope of winning over many moderates; Gomez is carrying a big-ass piece of baggage, in that he has been spokesperson for a group of veterans behind a controversial documentary alleging that Barack Obama leaked confidential intelligence as part of trying to claim sole credit for killing Osama Bin Laden.

But wait, there's more! Now that it looks like the Democratic primary between Reps. Ed Markey and Stephen Lynch is going to be for all the marbles, other ambitious Dems may be starting to sniff out the race. The only one who's come forward publicly is Gerald Leone, the DA of Middlesex County (the job that Martha Coakley held before becoming AG, in the state's most populous county); he says he's giving "serious consideration" to the race.

11:26 AM PT (David Jarman): VA-Gov: A new interview with Virginia's Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling in the Richmond Times-Dispatch shows a dramatically changed man, now that -- with a potential independent bid for Governor on tap -- he's freed from the constraints of having to make a play for the GOP base voters. Bolling, in fact, says as much ("There’s a certain liberating feeling to be able to say what you think without regard for the political implications")... and as far as the guy who out-maneuvered him for the Republican nomination, Ken Cuccinelli, he says "It’s like he’s written off trying to reach mainstream voters." And the natural temptation is to think that Bolling has merely changed his rhetorical spots, but he may be starting to flex his muscles on the legislative front as well, as on Monday he broke a legislative tie (in the 20-20 state Senate) in the Dems' direction, on a bill concerning what forms of voter ID are appropriate.

11:32 AM PT: Here's a more detailed story on the Bolling tie-break vote.

11:49 AM PT: Special Elections: They keep happening, and Johnny Longtorso keeps covering `em:

Georgia HD-71: Open Republican seat in Coweta County. Five Republicans are running: Thomas Crymes, Michael Farbo, Jr., Darryl Marmon (who lost a primary 72-28 to the previous incumbent last year), David Stover, and Richard Weisser, along with one Democrat, Cynthia Conradt Bennett. Bennett ran as an independent in a special election for the State Senate in 2011, coming in fourth in the open primary with 9.5%.

Also of minimal note are two runoffs, SD-11 and HD-21, both between two Republicans.

Mississippi SD-28: This is an open Democratic seat located in the capital of Jackson. The election is nonpartisan and has drawn a whopping nine candidates: Cindy Ayers-Elliott, Tamarra Grace Butler, Marshand Crisler, Sollie Norwood, Antonio Porter, James "Jimmy" Stewart (not kidding, this is how he filed), Kathy Sykes, Tommy Wallace II, and Cassandra Welchlin. I'm not even going to try to figure out who all these dudes are.

12:10 PM PT: CA-17: Does Ro Khanna want to take on everyone in tarnation? He might have to, given how aggressively Rep. Mike Honda is moving to lock down the kind big-name support you'd expect a veteran Democrat to be able to muster. We previously mentioned Barack Obama's unusual early endorsement of Honda after Khanna started sniffing around this seat, but now Nancy Pelosi, DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and DCCC chair Steve Israel have all done the same. The linked article notes that this foursome also endorsed now-ex-Rep. Pete Stark last year (whose seat Khanna had been interested in), but it didn't do him a lot of good, seeing as he was turfed out by fellow Democrat Eric Swalwell.

But Honda's a different bird than Stark: He's part of the House Dem leadership, and I'd think someone like Pelosi would be a lot more interested in helping out Honda than an irascible eccentric like Stark. What's more, when Khanna ramped up his fundraising in 2012 as a prelude to a possible run, Pelosi was among those headlining his signature events. That definitely won't happen again. Oh, and same with Mike Honda: He actually lent his name to a Khanna fundraiser in 2011, with the understanding that Khanna would hold off challenging Stark. It seems like quite the betrayal for Khanna contemplate using that money against one of the guys who helped him in the first place, and I'd wager the very thought is enough to get Honda fired up for re-election.

12:27 PM PT: IA-Sen: It sounds like the GOP is trying to create its own cat fud inspection commission, with the aim of flushing past-the-expiration-date tea down the toilet. I definitely don't see any problems stemming from that! Spooked by the likes of Todd Akin, a new super PAC called the Conservative Victory Project will try to derail the hopes of further conservative nutbars, starting with Iowa. This sounds like it will actually be a lot of fun:

The group’s plans, which were outlined for the first time last week in an interview with [Stephen] Law, call for hard-edge campaign tactics, including television advertising, against candidates whom party leaders see as unelectable and a drag on the efforts to win the Senate. Mr. Law cited Iowa as an example and said Republicans could no longer be squeamish about intervening in primary fights.

“We’re concerned about Steve King’s Todd Akin problem,” Mr. Law said. “This is an example of candidate discipline and how it would play in a general election. All of the things he’s said are going to be hung around his neck.”

Law, by the way, is president of American Crossroads, and this new group of course also is connected to Karl Rove. Anyhow, it's not like Democrats don't experience chip-on-the-shoulder primaries either, when butthurt candidates moan about the "establishment" trying to pick a nominee. (See MA-Sen for the most current example.) But "Unelectable Freak Wins Democratic Primary" is not a common headline, and the fact is that conservative voters like their politicians crazy. So will the likes of this Conservative Victory Project be enough to nuke the nutters from orbit? Or will it just fuel teabagger ire even further? I'm guessing there will be some mixed results, but it's probably very dangerous to start lighting matches in the vicinity of Steve King.

12:36 PM PT: Census: The Census Bureau has actually compiled a fair bit of demographic data according to the new district lines of the 113th Congress, but they've made it frustratingly difficult to find and use. Fortunately, our own David Jarman took the time to manually download all the new American Community Survey data from the Census's "Easy Stats" page, which only lets you pull a single seat at a time. So that no one ever need do that again, we've compiled it all into a publicly available Google Docs spreadsheet.

Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report's David Wasserman has been at work on a similar project, pulling data from the Census's FTP site and posting it online as well. The difference between the two files is that Wasserman is using the actual 2010 Census results, whereas our sheet uses the 2011 ACS figures. The two data sets don't overlap completely (and note that the ACS info, while newer, is a survey as opposed to an actual count), so you'll want to keep both links handy.

12:43 PM PT: CO-06: Just weeks after his name first came up as a possibility, former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff has officially filed paperwork with the FEC for a campaign against GOP Rep. Mike Coffman. At least two other current office-holders are interested, though: former state Rep. Karen Middleton and state Sen. Linda Newell, who said last week that she, too, is "seriously considering" a run herself. Like Middleton and Romanoff, Newell has already talked to the DCCC and is planning a trip to Washington to meet in person. Given how blue this seat is and what a ripe target Coffman is, we could wind up with a seriously contested Democratic primary here.

12:48 PM PT: CT-Gov: Add one more name to the list of Republican gubernatorial hopefuls in Connecticut: former Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele, who served under ex-Gov. Jodi Rell from 2007 to 2011, sounds tentatively interested in running in 2014. It's already a pretty busy field, though no one has formally entered the race yet. The Greenwich Time's Neil Vigdor sums it up:

The GOP field is starting to take shape for next year, with former U.S. ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley, who lost by 6,500 votes to Malloy in 2010, and state Senate Minority Leader John McKinney, of Fairfield, unofficially entering the fray.

The race has also whet the appetite of House Minority Leader Lawrence Cafero, Jr., of Norwalk, and could draw interest from Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton.

12:58 PM PT: FL-Gov: Is this attempted makeover really going to work for GOP Gov. Rick Scott? After years of budget cuts and attacks on unions, he now says he wants to increase education funding by almost half a billion dollars and give every teacher a $2,500 pay raise. Oh, but here's the kicker: He just reduced teacher salaries by 3 percent last year! So this raise is nowhere near as generous as it sounds (and indeed, Florida has some of the worst-paid teachers in the nation) and just looks so transparently expedient.

1:38 PM PT: MI-Sen: Dem Sen. Carl Levin was already on retirement watchlists just thanks to his age (78) and long tenure (34 years), so I don't know how much it means that he only raised $13,000 in the fourth quarter of last year. A Levin spokeswoman points out, though, that that's exactly what he raised in the final quarter of 2001, before gearing up for re-election in 2002. Notably, that's not the comparable quarter to the current one—that was a year into the cycle. In any event, she says her boss will decide "within the next three weeks." Even if Levin doesn't run, though, it'll be difficult for Michigan Republicans to put up a strong fight. (Last year, Sen. Debbie Stabenow blew out ex-Rep. Pete Hoekstra by 21 points.)

1:50 PM PT (David Jarman): Electoral college: After the epic multi-state flameout of the GOP's electoral college-rigging master plan last week, Pennsylvania seemed like the only candidate state left where it was even remotely on the table. And, indeed, it may yet rear its head in the legislature this session; state Senate leader Dominic Pileggi says he'll introduce new legislation about it this session, though conceding that it's "not a top priority" in Pennsylvania. He's pushing a slightly modified (and less nakedly power-grabby) version of EC-rigging, where Pennsylvania would give 2 votes to the winner and split the remaining 18 proportionately according to the state's popular vote (which, in 2012, was close enough that it would break down 9-9). We've seen this surface before, though; the idea was originally floated in December (here's the memorandum PIleggi circulated at the time).

So, what would actually happen the entire nation switched en masse to this method? (Which is not Pileggi's intention, I'm sure.) Re-running the 2012 election under these rules, by my reckoning (and my own assumptions about how the law would handle rounding errors), would give 279 electoral votes to Barack Obama, 258 to Mitt Romney, and 1 to Gary Johnson. A closer election to be sure, but also one that's much closer to the national popular vote than the current structure (279/258 would be 51.85% to 47.95%, while Barack Obama's share of the head-to-head popular vote was 51.95%). If you're wondering how Johnson managed to sneak in there, California has a large enough number of EVs (55) that the Libertarian manages to pick off one of them with 1.1% of the state's vote.

2:12 PM PT: NE-Gov, -LG: How crazy: Republican Rick Sheehy resigned as Nebraska's lieutenant governor on Saturday, after the Omaha World-Herald discovered that Sheehy had made some 2,300 late-night phone calls to four different women who were not his wife, mostly before his wife filed for divorce last year. How did the paper discover these calls? Kind of amazingly, Sheehy made them on his state-issued cell phone, and the World-Herald simply issued a records request after hearing reports that Sheehy was involved with other women. (Sheehy was known for his extensive road travels, so you can put two and two together. But in any event, one of the women says they had a romantic relationship and that Sheehy promised to marry her.)

Sheehy had been the frontrunner for the GOP nod to succeed term-limited Gov. Dave Heineman, who had endorsed his former no. 2. It's hard to see how Sheehy could continue running now, and in any event, Heineman immediately withdrew his support. Late last year, state House Speaker Mike Flood also bowed out, albeit for a very different reason (his wife was diagnosed with breast cancer). These twin developments have now completely recast the race, leaving a wide-open field. The only other potential candidate who had something in the works is state Sen. Charlie Janssen, who had promised a decision by the end of the month, but others are sure to get in now.

Indeed, the WH has a look at other possible contenders as well, citing state Auditor Mike Foley, Omaha businessman Pete Ricketts, former State Sen. Phil Erdmann, and University of Nebraska Regent Tim Clare. And some Republicans are hoping Flood can enter the race. As for Democrats, they'll be hard-pressed to compete for this seat, but who knows what opportunities a sloppy, multi-way primary between second-tier candidates could bring? In any event, party chair Vince Powers says that state Sen. Steve Lathrop and former NU Regent Chuck Hassebrook are both "looking at it hard."

Meanwhile, Heineman will have to pick a new second-in-command with Sheehy turning into a real-life version of Joe Biden as imagined by The Onion. Reporter Robynn Tysver mentions Bellevue Mayor Rita Sanders, state Sen. Beau McCoy, attorney Bob Evnen, and state Police Research Office Director Lauren Kintner.

2:27 PM PT (David Jarman): Later on Monday afternoon, Tagg Romney confirmed his disinterest, putting out a statement saying that he wouldn't run in MA-Sen (and, oddly, using the exact same language as Tisei ("the timing is not right for me")). Dem Gerald Leone's trial balloon was equally short-lived, though, as he also let it be known late Monday that he wouldn't be running either.

2:42 PM PT: VA Redistricting: Well, glad to see someone's come to his senses (probably after getting smacked around a bit by his colleagues). State Del. Onzlee Ware said last week that he was thinking about voting for a Republican mid-decade redistricting scheme that would screw Democrats—but create a new black-majority seat in the Senate, one which Ware may have had his eye on. But it was a craven proposition that would only offer the GOP cover, seeing as the plan has already passed the Senate and Republicans have a huge majority in the House. Thankfully, though, he now says he's backed off that possibility, though it's not clear where the other wayward Dem, Rosalyn Dance, stands on the matter.

2:42 PM PT (David Jarman): Alaska: Do state-level Republican organizations just get screwier the further you move into the nation's corners? California's state party is flatlining, Maine is constantly in pitched battle between Paulists and New England old-schoolers, and Florida's party has seen a bizarre parade of unsavory characters. Alaska may take the cake, though: it's one of the few states where Paulists are close to a plurality, rather than a vocal fringe... and last week's news ought to help inflame their resentments and paranoia even further. Incoming state party chair Russ Millette -- a Joe Miller ally who'd been elected at the state's convention last year thanks to an influx of Paulist first-time conventioneers -- was removed as chair by the old-guard members of the state party's Rules committee shortly before he was to take office last week, based on charges that he'd failed to raise money for Republican candidates while in the stepping-stone position of finance chairman. That leaves the party temporarily leaderless, as Randy Ruedrich, who'd been party chair for more than a decade before being ousted by Millette, said he wouldn't stay on.

2:48 PM PT: SC-Sen: Could Lindsey Graham get a primary challenge after all? Conservatives would surely love that (as would I), though it had been looking like a dim hope. But here's a new name, and the crazy is strong with this one: state Sen. Lee Bright, who says there's a "better than 50 percent" chance that he'll enter the race. Bright is a favorite of the local branch of the Club for Growth, so maybe they national org would like to ride this loony pony as well. How loony, by the way? Two years ago, he suggested that the state of South Carolina should create its own currency, saying: "If folks lose faith in the dollar, we need to have some kind of backup." I'm hopeful he can raise a ton in Palmetto pounds sterling for his run.

2:55 PM PT: NJ-Sen: Here's another senior Democratic senator who raised very little last quarter, but it means just as much: Frank Lautenberg's 4Q haul was just $11,000. Thing is, though, Lautenberg is one of the wealthiest members of Congress, worth perhaps more than $100 million thanks to his stake in payroll processing giant ADP, of which he was a co-founder. In his prior two campaigns, Lautenberg "only" contributed around $1.5 mil each time, but undoubtedly he could dig much deeper if he needed or wanted to.

3:12 PM PT: IL-Gov: We Ask America, the right-wing pollster that tries to hide the fact that it's an arm of the conservative Illinois Manufacturers' Association, has a new survey looking at potential Democratic primary matchups in their home state. WAA does a lot of in-house polling, like PPP, but this one isn't up on their website, leading me to wonder who might have paid for it. (They have done some client work in the past, including at least one poll for a Democrat, oddly enough: NE-02's John Ewing.)

Anyhow, the numbers show dominant leads for AG Lisa Madigan, who leads incumbent Gov. Pat Quinn 51-26. (PPP had her crushing even harder a few months ago, 64-20.) In a matchup against former White House chief of staff Bill Daley, Quinn does a little better with a 38-33 edge, but I wouldn't take too much solace in numbers like those. And in the event of a three-way, Madigan's still on top with 37 percent, versus 20 for Quinn and 15 for Daley. You really have to wonder whether Quinn will go through the pain and suffering of seeking re-election, or whether he'll just decide that stepping aside makes more sense at this point.

3:26 PM PT (David Jarman): Healey confirmed late Monday that she wouldn't be running for in the Massachusetts special election either.

3:33 PM PT: MN-Gov: I wonder how Dem Gov. Mark Dayton feels about this. On the one hand, 2010 nominee Tom Emmer came awfully close to victory, but on the other, he's a conservative loudmouth who probably would have been a much longer shot in any year other than 2010. Anyway, in response to a draft movement, Emmer says he will "never close the door" but adds that he is "not currently planning" to run for governor or any other office next year.

3:34 PM PT: CO-Gov: In a long Great Mentioner-style piece, the Denver Post's Lynn Bartels looks at the sad picture the Colorado GOP faces when it comes to next year's gubernatorial race—similar to their grim Senate situation. Bartels lists a number of potential candidates to take on Dem. Gov John Hickenlooper and even talked to a few of them, but no one sounds excited about the prospect. Says one conservative strategist: "We have no bench. We have a folding chair."

5:57 PM PT: GA-Sen: Jim Galloway surveys the wide-open Georgia Senate scene and reports that two prominent names are taking themselves out of consideration. GOP Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, whom you may recall infamously called Barack and Michelle Obama as "uppity" while pretending not to realize he was using racially incendiary language, says he'll stay where he is. Westmoreland seems pretty tight with House leadership, and NRCC chief Greg Walden recently named him as his top deputy, so his decision is unsurprising.

Meanwhile, Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed, one of very few top-tier Democrats who could make the race, was less definitive, though he said he's "just focused on being mayor" and specifically touted two other candidates who could run: Rep. John Barrow, who hasn't entirely closed the door, and Peter Aman, who served two years as Reed's Chief Operating Officer.

Some Republicans are definitely sounding a lot more interested, though: Galloway thinks Rep. Jack Kingston "is in," based on his "words and body language." And Rep. Phil Gingrey says he's "very, very interested" and adds that he's polling the race. Finally, it looks like Rep. Paul Broun, whose wife already declared he's running, will formally announce on Wednesday.

6:04 PM PT: NY-Gov: Siena has some new approval ratings (PDF) for Gov. Andrew Cuomo, and like Quinnipiac, they see him sliding, albeit not as badly. He's still very strong, at 67-29, but that's down from 71-24 a month ago.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (12+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 06:00:09 AM PST

  •  David, this diary isn't blank. (6+ / 0-)

    This is an abomination against mankind. I'm ordering you to take the text out of this diary effective immediately. :)

    19, Male, MD-8. Fan of University of Virginia athletics.

    by Danny Ricci on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 06:47:13 AM PST

  •  Three questions (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, bumiputera

    First: NJ data isn't coming anytime soon, is it? I think you all know what district I'm looking forward to at this point (coughcough the same number as my one here in MO).

    The next two have to do with the dystopian speculative political fiction I'm (probably not actually) writing: Does NYC have a sore loser law, in regards to the primaries; and what are some really ultraconservative prospects that might run in the Republican primary (Great Mentioner time!).

    Vaccinate your child. Vaccinate yourself. | Pro-transit, pro-gun, anti-NRA young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

    by gabjoh on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 07:34:59 AM PST

  •  Could not see the updated TX spreadsheet (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext, wwmiv, jeffmd

    It seems that the old one is still on your Google drive.

    BTW, the closest district DKE has shown so far is Kline's (R-MN02), where Obama leading by a landslide of 226 votes. PA07 has Romney leading by 255 votes. Hehe..

  •  2013-14 Gub Race Ratings (9+ / 0-)

    Currently predicting D +5, R -4, I -1, for a 26-24 Republican advantage heading into the 2015 elections.


    Lean R - AR (OPEN)

    Tilt D - MA (OPEN)

    Likely D - NH (Hassan); MN (Dayton); IL (Quinn)

    Safe D - CO (Hickenlooper); CT (Malloy); OR (Kitzhaber); CA (Brown); HI (Abercrombie); MD (OPEN); VT (Shumlin); NY (Cuomo)


    Tilt D - ME (LePage); VA (OPEN); FL (Scott); MI (Snyder); PA (Corbett)

    Tilt R - SC (Haley)

    Lean R - NM (Martinez); OH (Kasich); WI (Walker); AZ (OPEN)

    Likely R - IA (Branstad)

    Safe R - NV (Sandoval); GA (Deal); NJ (Christie); TX (Perry); KS (Brownback); NE (OPEN); AL (Bentley); SD (Daugaard); TN (Haslam); AK (Parnell); ID (Otter); OK (Fallin); WY (Mead)


    Lean D - RI (Chafee)

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 07:41:10 AM PST

  •  MA Sen: Possible R candidate (not a Romney) (7+ / 0-)
    Massachusetts state Rep. Dan Winslow (R) on Tuesday will make an announcement on his plans for the state's special election to fill the U.S. Senate seat previously held by Secretary of State John Kerry, reported.

    by Paleo on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 07:54:50 AM PST

  •  2014 Senate Race Ratings (11+ / 0-)

    Currently predicting a gain of two for the Republicans, making the Senate 53-47 Democratic heading into 2016.


    Tilt R: WV (OPEN); SD (Johnson)

    Tilt D: AK (Begich); LA (Landrieu); IA (OPEN)

    Lean D: NC (Hagan); AR (Pryor); MT (Baucus)

    Likely D: CO (Udall); NH (Shaheen); MN (Franken); MI (Levin)

    Safe D: OR (Merkley); NM (Udall); NJ (Lautenberg); HI (Schatz); VA (Warner); DE (Coons); IL (Durbin); MA (OPEN); RI (Reed)


    Likely R: GA (OPEN)

    Safe R: ME (Collins); KY (McConnell); SC (Scott); SC (Graham); TX (Cornyn); MS (Cochran); KS (Roberts); AL (Sessions); TN (Alexander); NE (Johanns); ID (Risch); OK (Inhofe); WY (Enzi)

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:02:13 AM PST

    •  I agree with this (7+ / 0-)

      Looks about right to me.  And we take back a bunch in 2016.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:10:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not to jinx us, (5+ / 0-)

        and anything can happen and all that, but 2016 is likely to be a blast.

        •  I'm expecting (6+ / 0-)

          us to at least pick up PA and IL in '16, if nothing else.

          •  Pennsylvania (0+ / 0-)

            It has been a very very long time since a Democrat Won an election to that seat. It is far from a slam dunk.

            •  Well, no, it shouldn't be considered a slam dunk (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              BeloitDem, ramesh, JBraden

              But the fact that it has been a very long time since the Democrats won that seat probably has more to do with the Senators representing it than anything else

              Richard Schweiker and Arlen Specter -who held the seat between them from 1969 to 2011 -were both moderate-to-liberal Republicans whose voting records quite often reflected their political ideology and at times significantly differentiated from the mainstream of that party (or at least that was true with Specter who, for example voted against Bork in 1986). Both were able to generate crossover appeal among independent and traditional Democratic voting blocs that helped them ward off sometimes potentially strong Democratic challengers. And both were sufficiently hated by the right wing base -you may remember that it was Schweiker who played a key role in undermining Reagan's 1976 presidential bid because, when Reagan said that he would make him VP (in an attempt to wean some of the moderates off Ford), it backfired and conservatives bolted from the proposed ticket because they disliked Schweiker

              Not to underestimate Toomey but it's worthwhile noting that his victory came in 2010 -which was a bad year for Democrats anyway and which coincided with Republicans taking the Executive Mansion statewide and Democrats losing quite a few congressional seats in the state -and followed a potentially divisive Democratic primary. Although I'm not blaming Sestak for the loss -I think polls showed that Specter would have lost to Toomey as well -it is worthwhile pondering whether Specter's primary defeat may have lost us independent and even some moderate Democratic voting blocs who would have stuck with Specter despite his party switch

              Toomey will be hard to defeat and we shouldn't take our chances for granted. But I doubt he has the crossover appeal that Schweiker and Specter had and a good Democratic challenger may be able to tap into that.

            •  I be cautious if I were you (3+ / 0-)

              to call it a slam dunk. Is it winnable yes, but will it be a cakewalk, absolutely not. Toomey I believe will be vulnerable to a strong Dem. Sestak would had won if Philly came out more than it did.

              This seat will be up in a Presidential year, and that is why I believe we'll win this seat, but this will not be a slam dunk. It will be a Toss-Up till election day.

              WI, IL, PA are winnable, in that exact order. NC is reachable as well, assuming McCrory and the NCGOP are toxic in four yrs time, and face a backlash. Which I believe will happen.

              Some retirements in AZ and IA are much higher of a reach, especially AZ.

              Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

              by BKGyptian89 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:26:38 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  switch WI with IL (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                Kirk beat a weak non-incumbent by a hair, and some voters may be worried that his stroke will limit his effectiveness. Johnson beat an incumbent (who was never all that popular and ran a lousy campaign, but was still an incumbent) by a bigger margin, and WI is generically far less blue than IL is. Ultimately I think they'll both lose, but I think Johnson is more likely to win than Kirk is.

                SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                by sacman701 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 01:27:32 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Kirk will know how to play the game... (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  atdnext, JBraden

                  and will be pretty moderate from 2014-2016.  Johnson is a hot mess and I could see him not even running for re-election.  His paymasters probably envisioned a Senate majority in 2010 - 2016, but there is a real possibility that Dems hold the majority through 2018 at the earliest now.  

                  The seats of Reid, Coons, Heitkamp, Tester, Donnelly, McCaskill should be in GOP hands, which would have given them the majority - instead Dems have a 55-45 majority.  2014 will be tough, but we could hold on - 2016 should see us get a net gain of some size.  


                  "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

                  by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 01:52:09 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Normally, I'd agree with you... (4+ / 0-)

                  But this isn't a normal situation. Kirk at least knows how to play "the moderation game". He's sounding amenable to CIR & gun safety, for example. He'll probably try running like Scott Brown.

                  Johnson, OTOH, is bats**t crazy. He's not even trying to reach "the movable middle". His only hope for 2016 is likely a perfect storm of Paul Ryan running for President AND a disastrous Dem WI-Sen nominee.

                  While I'm bullish on Dems winning back both seats in 2016, I won't be surprised if IL-Sen is another nailbiter while WI-Sen is a more comfortable pickup.

                  •  I actually think (0+ / 0-)

                    Hillary's smackdown of Johnson may hurt him in '16.  He can't stop making himself look like an idiot.

                    It seems too easy to show clips of some of those in an ad and ask if he's really the right type of person to be in the Senate.

                    Here's another question: Obviously Kentucky is pretty Republican, and conservative.  But Rand Paul also isn't just batshit conservative, he's in tinfoil hat territory.  I've seen at least two bullshit conspiracy theories he's put out there.  How likely is that kind of thing to hurt him in KY?

                  •  I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Kirk (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:

                    retired in 2016. He was kept out for a long time because of his stroke, and who knows how debilitating it will be long-term or if another one might happen. And the stroke itself might have scared Kirk about the backbreaking lifestyle of being a politician.

                    But then again, just about everyone said that about Tim Johnson.

                    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                    by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 10:44:32 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

              •  Just to clarify (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                I wasn't calling 2016 PA-SEN a slam dunk.  If anything I'm an eternal pessimist and I also remember that Santorum won-re-election in the state even as it went for Gore in 2000 . I was just saying it was winnable and that it's long history of Republican representation should be placed in context

            •  Your data point is a throwaway (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, itskevin

              There's nothing special about "that seat."  Specter held it for a long time and was way more liberal than any Republican today, that's the only reason it's been "a long time."

              If one wants to argue that it's far from a slam dunk we'll take it in '16, fair enough to cite real arguments, but that is not one at all.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:45:42 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  If Jay Nixon runs for MO-Sen, even more so. (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, JBraden, itskevin, bumiputera

          "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

          by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 03:53:21 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  KY should be likely R (8+ / 0-)

      McConnell's numbers are poor, and one of the top Dems could still get in and make it interesting.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:12:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd make Hagan only a tilt (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem, terjeanderson, JBraden

      If King's the R nominee in Iowa, that would make a definite D lean.

      by Paleo on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:14:11 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  No way does Iowa fall before Arkansas (4+ / 0-)

      Especially with King likely running. This is lean D at worst.

      Also, MI-sen is completely safe unless Levin retires. I'm not opposed to calling it likely D to reflect that possibility, but if so you should do the same for Collins.

    •  My only issue (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      terjeanderson, JBraden

      is Iowa and possibly West Virginia. Iowa is lean D as of right now if King is the nom for the Repubs, then this is likely D. As far as West Virginia, I want to see which Dems get in before I make a decision on this.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

      by BKGyptian89 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:36:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  If Latham is the nominee (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, bumiputera

        IA is pure tossup at best to me.  He took over 70% of the vote in his Democratic district in 2010 IIRC, albeit against a some dude.  He has rarely had to break a sweat in that district and then clobbered Boswell in spite of a geographic advantage for Boswell in the new district.

        If it's king, probably somewhere between Lean D and Likely D.  I could go with Lean D on IA, but haven't for the reasons stated above.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:41:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  is Baucus definitely running in 2014? (0+ / 0-)

      would he be popular enough to win?

    •  spot on for the most part (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I'd switch AK and AR, though.  Begich is polling well against his toughest potential opponent.  Pryor is desperately hoping he won't suffer the same fate as every other Democrat in the state has in recent years, and I'm doubtful.  If Darr is his opponent then Lean D is reasonable, but Darr seems to be recanting and saying he might not run.  If not, it's not Lean D.  

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 09:01:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The reason I have them as I do (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        is that a strong candidate has emerged in AK in über wealthy LG Meax Treadwell.  Still a question as to whether a strong candidate will emerge in AR.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 09:10:12 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  He's exploring a run, not yet in (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          and Miller might beat him to it.  In Arkansas they do not need a strong candidate to beat Pryor, just a decent one.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 10:26:38 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Pryor (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            spiderdem, sacman701, terjeanderson
            In Arkansas they do not need a strong candidate to beat Pryor, just a decent one.
            I'll believe this when I see polling that supports it. So far all we know is that the strongest potential R candidate, Griffin, has begged off, and no one else is exactly bashing down the door to get into the race. Meanwhile, the best precedent for AR-Sen 2014 may be WV-Sen 2012, in which a socially/environmentally conservative Democrat ran in a rapidly R-trending state, against the headwind of his state's more or less wholesale loathing of Obama - and racked up one of the biggest margins of victory in the nation.
            •  The persuasive evidence to me (0+ / 0-)

              is how we've lost everything not nailed down, and a lot of the stuff nailed down, too, in that state.  The state has not gone from one which would reliably elect Dems to federal office to one which is swingy for those offices (like, say, NC), but looks more like it has abruptly switched sides.  Yes, it may be like WV-Sen last year, but that race was never really in doubt once the campaign had really begun, because his opponent was weak.  If Pryor gets a serious opponent, not even strong, just one who will run a decent campaign, he's not in the same boat as Manchin.  He may survive, but it won't be easy.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:27:48 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Treadwell (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          also trailed Begich by about ten points in that poll that was just done.

    •  R+2 might be the modal outcome there, (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, BlueWisconsin, spiderdem

      but what are the odds we sweep all of those tilt/lean-D seats? I think the % chance that we lose each of these is about:

      SD - 80
      WV - 70
      AK - 40
      LA - 40
      IA - 40
      NC - 30
      AR  - 40
      MT - 30
      CO - 20
      NH - 30
      MN - 20
      MI - 10

      And maybe a 20% chance we win back a republican seat.

      That works out to an average loss of 4.3 seats, even though we'd only be the underdog in 2 of them. I'd guess there's about a 30% chance we lose the Senate.

      •  that assumes independence (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, gabjoh, BeloitDem, James Allen, Audrid

        In practice, most of the contested seats usually fall the same way depending on the national swing. If the Dems lose MI, they've already lost most or all of the others. The chance that they lose MI and win IA is close to zero.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 10:37:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I like those percentages pretty well, except (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        OGGoldy, atdnext

        I'd maybe put NH and MN a little lower. Maybe 10 each, along with Michigan. MN is pretty reliably blue unless there's a weak Dem or a really strong moderate Republican like Norm Coleman. Al Franken may have won a squeaker last time, but he's done everything right from being a serious legislator to staying in touch with constituents back home. And I don't think there's any doubt he's running again. I just don't see him losing, and I don't see a top tier moderate Republican a) running, or b) winning the primary.

        In NH, assuming Shaheen runs again, she's very well known and we've taken back both House seats, which means the best Republicans can probably do is run a former Rep. It could be close, but unless we see a real wave, I don't see how Shaheen is vulnerable. If we're dealing with a 2010 style wave, all bets are off anyway.

        AK, LA, IA, and MI seem to have the most potential to shift depending on who runs (for the Republicans in the first three, and if Levin runs in MI). I hate to say it, but I think SD might be more like a 90. It's a 70 or 80 if Johnson runs again, and nearly 100 if he doesn't. If you were Johnson, would you run again if you had at best a 1 in 3 chance of winning? I'm betting he retires.

    •  Seems about right... (0+ / 0-)

      IA becomes Likely D if Steve King gets into the race. Otherwise, I think this is right.

    •  If the national environment is anything like 2010 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem, atdnext

      Then most of these red states are likely flipping to elect Republicans. Though I suspect a wave is unlikely given split control of Congress.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 10:49:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  if the dems still hold the senate after 2018 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I think its possible you'll see a repeat of 1955-1981

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 01:59:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think that's possible (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        given how we have a lot of young, progressive but reasonable (for their state) folks we've elected the last few cycles, and elections probably be so polarized and crazy as they've been lately, with so many seats flipping sides.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 05:24:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  OK, I couldn't stay away forever. (11+ / 0-)

    I had a nice break during the holidays. But even then, I'd sometimes lurk here. I guess I just can't quit DKE.

    So what's been happening while I was gone?

  •  David, I don't get like, 90% of those references (10+ / 0-)

    Go back to Star Wars, please! :p

  •  MA-Senate (5+ / 0-)

    Raw Story is reporting that Tagg Romney is mulling a run at John Kerry's Senate seat.

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:28:54 AM PST

  •  Levin to retire? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Roll Call is reporting that Levin is looking like he is going to retire based on his lack of fundraising.  

    •  Levin never fundraises (11+ / 0-)

      He doesn't need to. So I don't think it's much of a sign, but his spokeswoman says he'll announce his plans in the next few weeks, so I suppose we'll know soon enough.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:42:03 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Would think Peters would run for it if he does (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, betelgeux

      Don't know whether the strongest Republicans, Miller and Rogers, would want to give up their house seniority and majority status to make the race.

      by Paleo on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:42:07 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  What about Granholm? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        kleinburger, terjeanderson

        I wonder what her favorable numbers would look like two years out of office now.  I have to imagine generic Dem vs generic GOP would lean Dem in Michigan.  

        But Snyder could run on his accomplishments repairing the "Granholm Economy", there could be good synergy between the Snyder Campaign and the GOP Senate Candidate.  

        I agree that it would be tough for the Camp's and Rogers to leave a House Majority - one they'd have for the next 8 years, for a shot at a Senate seat that is probably an uphill climb and they'd likely be joining a minority if they won.  Also the GOP House Reps will have to defend the GOP House voting record - especially the last four years of it.  

        I think the GOP will look to find an outsider businessman to run.  Snyder worked for them as a stealth ideologue, I suspect they'd try it with the Senate candidate as well.  

        "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

        by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:50:08 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I like our chances in Michigan (4+ / 0-)

          regardless what happens. Michigan usally elect Democrats to the U.S. Senate. So whether it's Levin, Granholm, Peters (he'll probably run for Governor) or who ever. Another person I would throw out there is fmr. state rep. Barb Byrum or even Gretchen Whitmer herself wuld be a strong candidate since she ruled herself out for Gov.

          Remember since 1972, Republicans have only won 2 senate races in Michigan.

          Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

          by BKGyptian89 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 09:00:52 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I wonder if a Senate open seat would hurt our (4+ / 0-)

            recruitment for Governor, if Peters, etc. all would decide to run for Senate instead and give Snyder a pass, like is happening in New Jersey. Granholm seems like the only person who could conceivably run for Senate but wouldn't be a candidate for Governor anyway. I don't see Whitmer running. I take her at face value that she doesn't want to be away from her family, and Senate would be WAY worse on that than Governor.

            •  No, I don't think the state party will allow that (4+ / 0-)

              to happen. I have a hard time believe they'll give Snyder a "pass" after all the shit he and the legislature has done. I don't think they need an A-lister to run for senate if Levins hangs it up. That's why I floated Byrum's name.

              Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

              by BKGyptian89 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 10:59:32 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  very different situation (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              Booker didn't decide to pursue an open seat, he's trying to force the issue, or take on the incumbent, and he wouldn't have had a decent shot at beating Christie anyway.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:33:46 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  From what I can tell Peters would (5+ / 0-)

            prefer to be a Senator. I think he prefers national level politics. Almost everybody I know involved in Michigan political circles thinks he wants the Senate seat. The talk about Peters running for Governor started to emerge when people thought that Levin may not retire.

            M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

            by slacks on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 10:54:52 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Maybe (0+ / 0-)

          by Paleo on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 09:32:41 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Please not Granholm (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          slacks, OGGoldy, bumiputera, betelgeux, GloFish

          She left office very deeply unpopular.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 10:24:26 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Not sure that still matters (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            blueonyx, askew, betelgeux, MetroGnome, abgin

            She left during the depth of the economic crisis, in a state that was suffering. Most of her negative ratings were related to that.

            I suspect that her popularity has probably recovered - although I'd like to see some polling before I could get excited about her running for something again.

            My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world - Jack Layton

            by terjeanderson on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 11:42:27 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  This. (4+ / 0-)

              Let's not forget, she left office deeply unpopular for no real reason.  The hatred of her was mostly irrational and unjustified.

              •  Reason (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Christopher Walker

                I've always said - and it pains me to say it - but Michigan seems to have a problem with female politicians who aspire to be anything above their current office.  They don't mind them being SoS, but there is a reflexive sexism in the politics of this state that disgusts me.

                Apart from it being easy to blame a cratering economy on any governor who would have served during the time she did, what her detractors really hated was that she was a young, attractive, and liberal woman who dared to think that she could become governor in this rough, blue-collar state.  They hated that when she came to Michigan, she moved to an apartment in Detroit (read: black) and clerked for a black judge in the city.  They hated that she had a pretty unconventional marriage - his husband gave up his career and ambitions (HE was originally supposed to be the one to run for governor) to support her, and they took each other's last names as their legal middle names.

                If conservatives of any political stripe in this state could have come up with a boogey-man for governor, it was her.  I'm not saying she didn't make mistakes or have her flaws, but her flaws were no more prominet or unusual than any other politician in this state or country, not so much so  that she should have been pilloried as the worst governor in the country.  The sexism leveled against her in criticisms against her were almost palpable and it was disgusting to watch, quite frankly, and made me embarrassed for the state.  Even a lot of Dems were involved in this in more subtle "oh bless her little girl heart" kind of ways.

                •  Oh no, (0+ / 0-)

                  I agree with you that that was most likely the main cause.

                  When I said no real reason, I meant as far as policy issues and whatnot.  She didn't really do anything as governor to justify the hatred spewed toward her.  And while far from perfect, she was nowhere near as bad as people said.

                  •  Wasn't disagreeing (0+ / 0-)

                    I wasn't disagreeing with you, at all.  I was just expanding on what you said.

                    Anyway, I know some Dems and centrists that ragged on her absolutely regret the turn they took in helping Snyder.  

                    •  I remember (0+ / 0-)

                      a professor of mine complaining once about how Granholm was getting shit as soon as she took office, but everyone LOVED Engler, who he referred to as a hillbilly (I was young enough when Engler was governor that I wasn't really paying much attention, so I don't know how accurate that is).

                •  Ugh (0+ / 0-)

                  Let's not start this again.  What logical reason is there for Michigan to be more sexist than Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc.  This is gonna become another DKE meme like how Massachusetts is somehow sexist despite being so progressive.

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                  by jncca on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 10:07:17 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  This would explain his harpooning of filibuster (0+ / 0-)

      reform, at least in part as he'd be putting his safe seat in more peril if it was made an open seat contest.  

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:42:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Levin (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      betelgeux, abgin

      Levin's spokesperson said in a Detroit Free Press article that during the fourth quarter of 2000, he raised even less than he did in 2012.  So the lack of fundraising isn't necessarily an indication that he plans to retire.

      •  Yesterday I was talking about the need of a fast (0+ / 0-)

        decission from C Levin. He is one of the last Democratic incumbent Senators announcing his plans.

        I glad he just announces a fast decission. It would be good if he runs again.

  •  Ryan comes out against EV sore loser in WI (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MBishop1, atdnext, betelgeux, bythesea

    by Paleo on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 09:48:14 AM PST

  •  Jindal continues to make a clusterfuck (9+ / 0-)

    out of Louisiana politics. Right now the latest is the battle between Jindal's office and the Commissioner of Higher Education. Not surprisingly Jindal's math is different.

    Louisiana's higher education chief and Gov. Bobby Jindal's administration are at odds over how to frame the depth of state budget cuts to public colleges, in a gloomy dispute that only five years of continued financial reductions can offer.

    Is the cut $625 million? $294 million? $419 million? How about $220 million?

    Depends on who you ask and how you look at the figures — and whether you want to make the impact of repeated budget slashing seem less damaging to the state's public education system.

    Even data are political at the Capitol.

    Since the start of the new year, Commissioner of Higher Education Jim Purcell has offered an eye-popping tally of how much state money has been stripped from campuses since 2008 and how tuition increases on students haven't filled the gap.

    Purcell says Jindal and lawmakers have shrunk annual state financing for higher education by $625 million over five years.

    Basically, Jindal says the cuts only equal 220 million, because he includes the large-scale tuition hikes that have made school prohibitively more expensive (yet another one of Jindal's hidden, massive tax increases that tend to hit middle income families the hardest), as part of the University System's budget. Even so, that 220 million represents entire academic departments and degree programs shut down.
    Each year as tuition rises, however, Jindal and lawmakers have then cut state funding further, so the higher tuition for students is used as an offset for state spending on campuses, in essence shifting costs to students and their families.

    Data from the Board of Regents show tuition has increased $331 million since the budget cuts began, offsetting some of the $625 million hit. That could drop the real reduction since 2008 to about $294 million.

    Purcell also notes that retirement, health care and insurance costs have grown $125 million since then.

    If that gets tacked onto the other cuts, higher education is getting about $419 million less to cover expenses than it did five years ago, even with tuition increases.

    Pick a number, any number. Here's an interesting one: Since 2008, Louisiana's state financial support for higher education has dropped by more than 31 percent, third-highest in the nation behind only Arizona and New Hampshire.

    Of course during this time period Jindal has exempted 1 billion dollars in corporate income taxes, according to the latest LA-DP mailer. And at the root of all these problems is, largely, the proto-Tea Party buffoonery that put Neil Riser in office and led Jindal to press the legislature to repeal the Stelly Plan right from the start of the Jindal administration.

    The Stelly Plan was a common-sense bit of tax reform that worked really well to more fairly tax our income brackets, and provide the state with a workable budget. It was promoted by a Republican State Representative, and passed in a 2002 statewide referendum. It basically, (and I'm not going to do too much policy here), shifted sales and utilities taxes to income taxes, raising additional revenue for the state because of higher taxes on upper middle and high income families and lightening the tax burden on poorer families.

    But returning to Jindal, his office deals with the budget like a Soviet Commissar. They fudge the numbers, exclude legislative feedback as much as possible, they unilaterally dealt with the dismantling of the LSU public hospital system through sketchy math that left the legislature with no say, and Jindal tends to bully and intimidate those who say no. Like he had Jim Fannin's Committee Chairmanship stripped when Fannin criticized some budget cuts, and like he slashes the budgets of state offices that criticize him, including State Treasurer John Kennedy's budget and Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne's budget.

    I want PPP to poll the goddamn state because no one ever fucking polls Louisiana. There's like one pollster, Southern Media and Opinion I think is the name, and they poll once every few years in between big elections, and they have a shoddy track record. Every bit of sense in me tells me Jindal's schtick has to be getting old, and that his popularity should be suffering tremendously by now, with these never-ending budget problems, characterized by his cheap gimmick solutions and passing the buck onto the more marginal elements of society.

    Jindal's potential unpopularity is Mary Landrieu's gain. Particularly since she's the only one delivering for the state these days.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 11:04:25 AM PST

  •  More on Menendez (15+ / 0-)
    Univision is reporting that a Dominican woman alleged to have had sex with U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) says she never met Menendez - and never even saw him on television.

    "It's completely false," Yanesi Fernandez, 21, of the Southern Dominican Republic told the Spanish News network.

    Engaged to be married, according to the news report, Fernandez is shown sobbing in the news clip as she denies the story.

    Her mother told Univision that her daughter is a virgin - and she can prove it.

    by Paleo on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 11:04:33 AM PST

  •  I've never understood how some states (5+ / 0-)

    manage to have some many problems with the early vote. In Wisconsin, we send the early votes to the appropriate precinct and count them with the rest of the ballots on Election Day.

  •  This is a BFD! (17+ / 0-)

    John Kasich, governor of Ohio, to expand Medicaid...

    It will be interesting to see how this affects him politically.  I can only imagine it would be a boost, but the base has to be pissed!


    by LordMike on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 11:15:13 AM PST

  •  David (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, David Jarman

    Your link to the Bolling interview only links backs to this thread.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 11:30:51 AM PST

  •  NE-Gov/LG - Gov Heinemann planning (6+ / 0-)

    to appoint someone who won't run for governor in 2014 as Lieutenant Governor.

    Also, Chuck Hassebrook, who dropped out of the dem senate primary last year for Bob Kerrey, is considering a run for Governor.  Would be fun for me to actually have a competitive dem primary for once

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 11:35:41 AM PST

  •  What if they hold an election and nobody runs? (0+ / 0-)

    I know there have been many House races with only one party represented. When's the last time there was a senate race with only one party?

  •  MA5/MA8 list of electeds (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, JBraden

    Why not?

    MA5 (Markey)

    State Senator Michael Barrett of Lexington
    State Senator Katherine Clark of Melrose

    Lots of historic areas north of Boston here. Belmont (home of the Romneys), Framingham, Lexington, Revere, Waltham.

    MA8 (Lynch)

    State Senator Brian Joyce of Milton
    State Senator John Keenan of Quincy

    Probably a few more from Brockton or Quincy or South Boston in the House. John Hart of Boston is resigning so there may be a vacuum there and no candidate in the wings.

    Barring unexpected events, Ed Markey's seat opening up will be a big opportunity for a lot of people who could have conceivably been good members of Congress but never took that opportunity for obvious reasons. It'll be interesting if some random guys from Massachusetts' recent past step up for this once in a generation opportunity.

    Here's a list of towns represented by Markey in 1977 and 2013:

    Malden, Medford, Revere, Winchester, Winthrop, Woburn

    Towns represented by Markey in 2013 that weren't in his district in 1977:

    Arlington, Ashland, Belmont, Cambridge (part), Framingham, Holliston, Lexington, Lincoln, Natick, Sherborn, Southborough, Sudbury (part), Waltham, Watertown, Wayland, and Weston

    So the district has changed a bit since the 1970s

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:07:29 PM PST

    •  While the MA SOS site isn't very good (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      they do have their election results documents on

      Here's the 1976 primary results for Markey's district. (Just copy the image and put it in an image viewer, and rotate it)

      Markey won a 12 candidate primary with 21% that year.

      The field:

      From Chelsea: Robert F. Donovan
      From Everett: William F. Hogan, Robert S. Leo, George R. McCarthy
      From Lynnfield: Bartholomew J. Conte, Rose Marie Turino
      From Malden: Joseph E. Croken, Jack Leff, Ed Markey, Stephen J. McGrail
      From Medford: Vincent A. LoPresti
      From Revere: William G. Reinstein

      Donovan won 2734 of his 5083 votes from Chelsea and finished 8th overall.
      McCarthy won Everett (with 5063 of his 12838 votes)
      Ed Markey won Lynnfield over the two Lynnfield candidates
      Markey also won Malden with 5242 votes, to 4199 for Croken and 1424 for Leff and 1571 for McGrail
      LoPresti narrowly beat Markey in Medford, 3874-3604, finishing 3rd overall.
      Reinstein won 3834 of his 5989 votes in Revere and finished 6th overall.

      So yes, the MA SOS site is lousy. But here's their election statistics treasure chest

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:32:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Much bigger list for Markey (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, bumiputera, JohnnyBoston

      Every senator, rep, and mayor in his district is potential candidate, as far as I'm concerned. Some ambitious city councilors or selectmen too probably.  This is a once in a generation opportunity to go for a big promotion while keeping your current job.  I wouldn't be surprised if we had dozens of people running for it.

      Here's a list of potential names from BMG:

    •  Some others (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Marcus Graly, JohnnyBoston

      The Lynch seat:
      John Connolly - at-large Boston City Councillor from West Roxbury. Very good chance he would run to succeed Lynch if that seat became open. Extremely ambitious. Lynch is the only representative from Boston right now, so the Boston powers that be will really fight to keep the seat in their hands.

      The Markey seat:
      Tom Conroy - state rep from Wayland, ran for US Senate nomination last year so obviously feeling ansy in his current job.

      Carl Sciortino - state rep from Medford. Young, gay, well-regarded.

      Will Brownsberger - state senator from Belmont, represents Watertown and part of Cambridge as well. He's my state senator too so I know the most about him. He's a good campaigner and has a devoted base.

      28, Male, MA-07 (hometown MI-06)

      by bumiputera on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 01:12:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I want somebody 35yo or younger. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JohnnyBoston, WisJohn

      Mass Congressional delegation needs some youth in it.  

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 02:04:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  John McCain: Bomb Bomb Iran Redux (13+ / 0-)

    It looks like John McCain is still up to his antics with insulting Iran through second-grader jokes.

    So Ahmadinejad wants to be first Iranian in space - wasn't he just there last week? "Iran launches monkey into space"
    -- John McCain (@SenJohnMcCain) February 4, 2013
    Justin Amash has now offered his response to this.
    @repjustinamash Maybe you should wisen up & not make racist jokes.
    McCain's response?
    @SenJohnMcCain: lighten up folks, can't everyone take a joke?
    And he questions Chuck Hagel's judgment on foreign policy? To think this guy was almost our President.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:33:04 PM PST

  •  Trends (0+ / 0-)

    lets say a given place was R+0 in 2004, D+4 in 2008, and D+1 in 2012.  Is that place trending Republican because Obama's performance significantly dropped, or would we say that 2008 was likely anomalous and the area may be demonstrating a long term Democratic trend?  To provide a little detail, this is a suburban area, and Obama did overperform in many suburbs in 2008.  Or as Xenocrypt suggested, maybe its just an area that likes Obama.  What do you think?

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 01:18:10 PM PST

  •  MA-SEN: Gary Leone(D) wont run (7+ / 0-)

    Leone is the Middlesex county DA who announced he was thinking of entering the Senate race. He has now said he will not run. link

    Leone previously said he wont run for re-election as DA, and wouldnt seek any other elected office. Middlesex County DA has been a stepping stone to state AG. Coakley, and her two predecessors(Scott Harshberger and Thomas Reilly) served as DA for the country before becoming AG.

  •  Retirement tea leafs (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, Christopher Walker

    I'm not sure early fundraising and campaign war chest size are great indicators anymore.

    I mean, Sen. Harkin had lots of dough in his war chest and a big fundraiser scheduled. And still pulled the plug.

    So if Sen Levin only raised $13K ($233K in the bank) I'm not concerned even the The Hill reporter is.

    Plus with the super pac era we're in, millions can appear overnight affecting elections

    •  Not to mention Levin is a brand name... (0+ / 0-)

      and a known entity.  I don't know if there is a rockstar Michigan GOP could find that would be able to take on Levin and force him to raise gobs of money to put forth a air campaign defense.  

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 01:54:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Miller and Rogers (0+ / 0-)

        are probably the strongest candidates they have, and I don't see either of them running.

        Especially after what happened with Hoekstra.  The man gave up his ranking position on the Intelligence committee to run for governor and lost.  And frankly, he probably WAS the strongest candidate they had against Stabenow.  Which says really sad things about the party, but still.

        I suppose there's a possibility, as someone else pointed out, that Miller might run if Levin retires.  But I don't see Rogers giving up his seat and chairmanship for an uphill battle.  And they'd probably be the two best candidates the Republicans would have here.

  •  question about 1984 CA 38 race (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    A misconception a lot of people have is that when Loretta Sanchez took down Bob Dornan, she was the first democrat to ever win anything above dog catcher in Orange County.

    But if one looks at the history of that district and area, its a surprise on how Dornan ever won in the first place. Dornan was originally in congress from 77-82 representing a very republican district taking in a lot of wealthy WASP beach communities. He never got above 54 percent in the district and was considered vulnerable. The democrats of course removed Palos Verdes from the district to get rid of him.

    After spending 1982 vying for the senate nomination, he decided to run again for the U.S. house in 1984. The district he was running in was considered more hostile territory for a republican as most of the people in the state legislature from that area were democrats and the district had been in dem hands since its creation after the 1960 census.

    Dornan should have gotten his ass handed to him since he had trouble winning a republican district (even in good years like 1980) and was labeled a carpetbagger as he had changed his precinct registration from Santa Monica to Garden Grove shortly before the filing deadline.

    But not only did he win, but he won by a 53-46 margin against an incumbent nonetheless. This was a district where dems held a five or six point registration advantage. Anyone know how he was able to win, much less against an incumbent and as a carpetbagger?

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 01:55:47 PM PST

    •  Huh, odd that B-1 Bob originally got elected (0+ / 0-)

      from the Westside of LA.
      How "very Republican" was that district back then.

      His persona must have been more reasonable at that earlier time. After moving to Orange Co. and after getting older I guess he could unleash.

      I don't think the carpetbagging issue has ever been of much impact in CA elections.
      That just doesn't seem to resonant much for Californians, unlike in other parts of the country. I dunno why.

      •  his old district had an R+10 PVI (0+ / 0-)

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 02:38:14 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Let me explain. (3+ / 0-)

        First off, the Westside WAS quite Republican back then. Outside Venice and Santa Monica, the region was as "rock ribbed Republican" as the NYC suburbs were at the time. Yet also like the NYC suburbs, coastal LA County shifted to Democrats as Republicans turned too conservative on "the culture wars".

        Secondly, "B-1 Bob" has always been a special kind of nut. He just eventually became too conservative for West LA, so he jumped ship for OC.

        And thirdly, you're mostly right about carpetbagging. Especially since so many Californians are so transient, transplants, and/or immigrants, and since most California voters have pretty much become hard "party line voters", carpetbagging just isn't that much of an issue there.

    •  I think part of it was ... (0+ / 0-)

      ... that his district had a significant working class and hispanic population, which perhaps led to fairly low voter turnout.  Also, 1984 was the Reagan landslide, which quite probably helped in Orange County.  I know he was more than once caught doing some dirty tricks, like posting signs in Spanish outside of polling places basically threatening voters with deportation.  In reality, he never won by a huge, overwhelming margin, and it finally took a moderate hispanic woman to mobilize enough of the base of the district to bounce his sorry, racist, homophobic ass from Congress.

    •  Hm. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:


      And Patterson's successful challenger was no mere eager beaver. He was Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove), a flamboyant, well-known former congressman who raised nearly $1 million, mostly from a national conservative following, and outspent Patterson by more than $300,000, reports filed with the Federal Election Commission show. Dornan claims, however, that Patterson enjoyed a built-in "incumbent's advantage" worth nearly $400,000 in free-mailing privileges and other taxpayer-financed perks.

      Patterson also had another apparent advantage: $448,000 in contributions from political action committees (PACs), much of it from financial institutions, builders and real estate firms that he had helped while serving on the House Banking Committee. Dornan's PAC take was barely more than one-third of Patterson's. "If Patterson had not gotten business PAC money that should have gone to a Republican, we'd have just clobbered him," said Dornan, who won by 54% to 46%.

      Patterson was only one of many incumbents who rolled in the PAC money at will.

      First of all, why is Dornan still trying to sound like the underdog after he won?  

      Another possibility: Patterson was a weak incumbent.  He didn't win by much in 1982 either, especially when you consider the Libertarian candidate.  People around that time thought the OC was trending Republican in general, "since Reagan's election".

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 04:16:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  CD spreadsheet (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    David Jarman

    Looks good, but the same lines were copied for VA1 and VA2.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 02:01:33 PM PST

  •  Re: Trends in CA-49 and in CA-52. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, James Allen, Skaje

    This came up a day or two ago--I'm looking at Cook's 2004 estimates by current districts, and Kerry got 42% in CA-49, so it was R+6.7 in that election.  (Cook rounds to the nearest integer, but he gives the margin at 16 points, so it was within 0.25 of that.)

    Obama got 50.5%, so it was R+3.2 in 2008.  Dramatic change!  But Obama got 46.6%, and so it's back to R+5.4.  The Obama12/Kerry difference is probably one of the lowest in the state.  (Two-cycle PVI went from R+5 to R+4.3.)

    Similarly, Kerry got 49% in CA-52, so it was about even.  Then Obama got 56%, so it was D+2.3 or so.  Then Obama got 53.3%, so it's down to D+1.3.  (Two-cycle PVI, then, went from D+1.2 to D+1.8.)

    Anyway, I'd say there's some evidence of Democratic trends in these districts, but the case is relatively weak.  They've maybe gotten a point bluer over eight years.  Compare to something like CA-52,  which went from D+4 to D+9 to D+11 over the three elections.  

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 02:03:54 PM PST

    •  Also, AZ-09 and CO-06. (5+ / 0-)

      That went from a 49% Kerry seat to a 52% Obama seat to a 52% Obama seat, or from an even seat to an R+1.7 seat to an even seat.  More likely, that was just McCain's home state effect, and it's still basically an even seat.  

      On the other hand, CO-06 went from about 45.6% Kerry to 54.4% Obama to 52.6% Obama.  So that went from R+3.1 to D+0.7 to D+0.6.  That might or might not still be "trending", but I think its Democratic trend seems to have been more strong than in CA-49, CA-52, or AZ-09.  (And I suspect that's because of Obama contesting Colorado more than anywhere else.  But that means the changes might not continue there either--going from "uncontested" to "contested" might be a one-time thing.)

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 02:14:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Khanna (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Why doesn't Khanna just wait and run for Lt. Governor one day?  He'd be good for a number of offices, but they just aren't open at this point.  

  •  AK-Sen: Begich raised $336k (10+ / 0-)

    in the 4th quarter of 2012.

    In a state as dirt cheap as Alaska, not bad at all.

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 02:14:36 PM PST

  •  IA-Sen: Latham seriously considering a run? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker
    Republican Rep. Tom Latham is changing the name of his campaign committee from “Latham for Congress” to “Iowans for Latham” ahead of a potential run for the U.S. Senate. The change could be filed with the Federal Election Committee as soon as this evening, according to a source familiar with the situation.

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 02:15:04 PM PST

  •  NE-Gov (10+ / 0-)

    I really hope Democrats can put effort into this race, and I'm very hopeful that Steve Lathrop jumps in and fights for the Governorship. The single best reason for us to fight for this race is because we currently hold the Nebraska Supreme Court 5-2, and it's likely that we'll see some of our Democrats on the Court retire in the next few years considering that they were all appointed by Ben Nelson in the 90s (it's worth noting that two of the Democrats, Kenneth Stephan and Michael McCormack, were retained with more than 70%+ each in the 2012 elections). It's also important that we have a check on the State Senate, and that he can try and keep the state's politics as moderate as possible. I doubt he could ever get elected to the US Senate even if he did win the Governorship, but it's important that we at least try to nail down this office. I bet that if there's a really vicious primary among second-rate and third-rate Republicans, and if 2014 is a favorable year to us, Lathrop might have a shot. We'll have to see how it plays out.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 02:39:18 PM PST

    •  Can anyone tell me how many of the state's (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      49 state senators are generally D or R? I can only quickly find data for prior to 2010, but I'm assuming Republicans still have their veto-proof majority.

    •  I'm actually not too concerned about "balance" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, LordMike

      I mean yes of course I want a Dem governor, but luckily our legislature is pretty mainstream.  It's killed voter ID proposals, a proposal to undue Omaha's LGBT anti-discrimination ordinance, and there is a lot of skepticism in the legislature about the Governor's proposal to eliminate the income tax.

      Add to that that Democrats chair a good number of committees, including the most powerful, the Appropriations committee.

      That being said, I REALLY want Lathrop to be governor, and I really do think dems have a better chance than most here give.  Someone's rating up thread of "safe R" is definitely not the case. Likely R, sure.

      27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

      by JDJase on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:28:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oops, forgot my link (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      to an article actually discussing the lack of partisanship (and highlighting one of the Independent Senators).  It's a really good quick read.

      27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

      by JDJase on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:34:55 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MA-SEN: Kerry Healey declines to run (5+ / 0-)

    Breaking news on

    I think state rep. Dan Winslow will announce a run tomorrow, and maybe Gabriel Gomez gets into the race as well. Gomez was apparently interested in the race even if Brown ran, so I dont see why he doesnt give it a try now.

  •  Is Clinton showing her hand regarding 2016? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MBishop1, Christopher Walker

    I guess she just launched

    Seems fairly basic, but, hey, It is at least as far along as Ed Markey's campaign!

    Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Daman09 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 03:40:18 PM PST

  •  MN-Gov: Now that I think about it (9+ / 0-)

    how lucky are we that Dayton pulled it out. Especially given that Repubs won both legislative chambers that year. Of course the DFL got both back this pass November, but I just get weak at the knees thinking what could had been.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

    by BKGyptian89 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 04:07:26 PM PST

  •  AR-GOV: Coleman (R) to announce (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, JBraden, DCCyclone

    If Coleman is the nominee, we actually have a slight chance. Only slight.

  •  Legit Challengers (0+ / 0-)

    I know there are more, but I can't think of all of them. I'd like to add a (potential) challenger column to my PVI spreadsheet

    So far, by my count, we have these legit challengers on the house side. I'm only including people who have announced, are very publicly mulling a bid, or are quite obviously being heavily courted by the DCCC or other major players.

    CA-17: Ro Khanna
    CO-6: Andrew Romanoff
    MA-6: Richard Tisei
    NV-3: Erin Bilbray-Kahn
    NY-19: Sean Eldridge

    Who else is there?

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 04:37:42 PM PST

  •  interesting fact I found (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jacques Kallis

    I was looking at an old congressional pictorial directory from the 1960s where it lists the residence of all congresspeople. Apparently, Senator Kuchel in California was from Anaheim.

    Kuchel was a republican so that doesn't mean much but he was considered somewhat of a RINO if I recall. And Anaheim back then was probably very conservative. Maybe he was one of the OC oldtimers whose politics predated the suburbanization of the county?

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 04:45:25 PM PST

  •  Onzlee Ware lives in Roanoke (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    so he wouldn't be eligible for the proposed Senate seat. He's no stranger to sticking his finger in the party's eye, though; he supported an independent slate of candidates against the incumbent Democrats in the Roanoke municipal elections back in 2006.

  •  A rant based off the link from the open thread, (5+ / 0-)

    because that blog post is still bugging me. The offending blog post

    Look at the chart 113th U. S. House of Representatives. Closely. Forget about the fact that the point they are trying to make ignores why gerrymandering really is a problem- (which as I see it is not the polarized nature of politics, but the fact that the median district is far from the median person in the nation politically), but they are basing the article off an entirely misleading graph. The chart is taking 2008 vote percentages and casting it against 2013 ideology. The problem with this is... The districts have been renumbered through redistricting!
    To illustrate my point, I'll look at the 6 congressmembers labeled first. They are Marlin Stutzman of IN-03, Ed Royce of CA-39, Paul Gosar of AZ-04, Jared Huffman of CA-02, Nydia Velazquez of NY-07, and Luis Gutierrez of IL-04. Stutzman and Gutierrez's districts weren't effected much by redistricting, keeping a similar profile and the same number. as such, their placements on the graph are roughly what they should be. Nydia Velazquez's NY-07 used to be numbered NY-12, but although they share no geographic areas, they are somewhat similar districts politically, and so it also does not come out too incorrect. Those are the only three which are close to correct. Royce and Gosar are both in safe republican districts. Royce's district used to be numbered CA-40. The old CA-40 was a safe republican district. Gosar has a district which is arguably a new one, made up from the more republican areas of his old district, with others thrown in. The reason why Royce and Gosar are listed as representing 65% Obama districts is that the old CA-39 and AZ-04 were both hispanic majority districts represented by liberal democrats Linda Sanchez and Ed Pastor respectively. The two conservative republicans never were elected by a 65% Obama constituency. Both districts were elected by districts which McCain won. Jared Huffman of California has the reverse problem. The prior representative from CA-02, Wally Herger, was one of the most conservative members of congress. So how did CA-02 now elect one of the most liberal members of the house? It happened because CA-02 is not the same district anymore. Huffman is in reality the successor to Lynn Woolsey, one of the most liberal members of the house(In fact, Woolsey was the successor the much more conservative Barbara Boxer). This is not seen here because when Woolsey and Boxer represented the district, it was numbered CA-06. To sum up my point, I note the red dot furthest to the right, showing a republican representing a nearly 90% Obama district. While it is unlabeled, I am certain that this dot indicates NY-11. It is red because NY-11 is represented by a republican, Mike Grimm. It is 90% Obama because in 2008, the district largely consisted of East NY and Brownsville. Mike Grimm represents Staten Island and Bay Ridge. Mike Grimm has always represented Staten Island and Bay Ridge, although the district was previously numbered NY-13. The ENY-Brownsville district is now NY-09, still represented by Yvette Clarke. One last entertaining thing to point out is Mike Grimm's old district, NY-13, which was the only district in the southern part of NY state to go for McCain. Because of redistricting, NY-13 is now the Harlem district, Formerly Charlie Rangel's NY-15. According to this chart, Charlie Rangel was elected by a district which voted for McCain. If you know Charlie Rangel, stop and think for a minute what kind of district would narrowly vote for McCain, and overwhelmingly reelect Rangel. (In reality, Rangel's district went Obama 87-6, and unless I am mistaken was Obama's second best performance in the nation.)

    Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

    by R30A on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 06:37:08 PM PST

    •  Errata of rant (0+ / 0-)

      Rangel's district should be 93-6. 87 was the margin of victory.

      The last sentence before I mention Huffman should read "Both representatives were elected..."

      I'll probably find something else wrong after I post this...

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 06:57:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I hated the article (0+ / 0-)

      It really, really ticked me off when I was reading it, but I couldn't rebut it very well.

      I can't believe they didn't even bother to look into redistricting.

      •  The way they frame the premis does this (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        They specifically frame it as a polarization issue, which, to their credit, is correct.  The problem I have with that article is that Sides tries to say that gerrymandering is really blameless in today's political discourse.  It isn't, and any bonehead who isn't trying to get press knows it.

        While gerrymandering will generally not effect the partisanship of an elected member (most liberal republican 99% of the time is more conservative than the most conservative democrat), it does effect what candidate in the general does get elected, which is what people don't like about it to begin with.

        Sides picks his words carefully when talking about this subject, which is what makes it so difficult to rebut.

        Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

        by Daman09 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 11:20:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Massachussetts town by town (0+ / 0-)

    I have some updated figures for various towns in CD01:



    obama    2444
    romney  891
    stein     29
    johnson   38

    great barrington

    obama 2928
    romney 597
    johnson 33
    stein     43

    Longmeadow- AP was a 1000 Romney voters off

    obama  4851
    romney 4628
    other 101

    springfield certified
    about a 1000 more votes

    obama  43869
    romney 10515
    other 577
    south hadley

    obama   5437
    romney 3273
    other    155
    wilbraham  3 more votes

    obama   3746
    romney 4334
    other 128

  •  IL-Gov (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, JBraden

    Pat Quinn LOSING a three-way primary despite being an incumbent Governor in a non-primary runoff state? He's toast!

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 07:41:09 PM PST

  •  NJ-Gov: Was at RU Dems tonight. (7+ / 0-)

    The Mayor of Piscataway was there and said that Buono is a great person for us to be running.  He also brought up the fact that in the 1997 election, Whitman was a runaway favorite and up against then-Mayor of Woodbridge Township Jim McGreevey (who, like Buono, is from Middlesex County).  He closed the gap by November and only lost by 1%.

    I signed up to volunteer and got a Buono for Governor button.  She seems to have a theme going with green.

    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

    by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 07:46:53 PM PST

    •  How is Christie's enviro record? (0+ / 0-)

      Does her green color scheme mean she's running an enviro/climate campaign or you mean green is just her color scheme of choice?

      If it's the former - wouldn't that just keep focus on Sandy, which is a boon for Christie?  Or is Christie been very bad on environmental/climate change issues and she can use it to weaken his Sandy numbers by highlighting his enviro record and letting folks draw the connection and (round about) blame.  This could backfire spectacularly if the attempt to blame Christie/GOP for Sandy though, so she would really need to walk the tightrope.

      Koch's back climate denier studies to muddy the waters for years and years, and Christie tried to secretly head out to Colorado last year to be the Koch Bros keynote speaker at their annual convention.  

      Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and the ecological disaster pipeline leak risk.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 06:47:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not good, but not terrible. (0+ / 0-)

        He keeps hedging on the permanent fracking ban bill (a bill which he used to support) for instance.

        "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

        by KingofSpades on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 08:59:17 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Interesting. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Buono and Dems should try to get Christie to take positions that would then doom him come the 2016 GOP Primary.  If they could get him to come out for a permanent fracking ban, get him to walk back him marriage equality veto etc it could both benefit NJ the next four years while also dooming Christie in any GOP primary.  

          Hopefully Buono could get some support building to make Christie have to start coming towards the center rather than being so far ahead that he can stay out as a solid party issue Republican.  

          Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and the ecological disaster pipeline leak risk.

          by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 09:40:36 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  I drew two MA gerrymanders (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    an R gerrymander that gives the GOP three seats they could definitely pick up and a (more effective) D gerrymander.  Are 3 tilt/lean GOP seats the max you can get in MA?

    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

    by KingofSpades on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:03:48 PM PST

  •  any of you guys remember James Scheuer? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, Christopher Walker

    Quite possibly one of the unluckiest members of congress. In 1970 his district was turned into a puerto rican heavy one so he decided to challenge Jacob Gilbert in an adjoining district

    Two years later his district was eliminated and he was paired up with congressman J.B. Bingham

    When a seat opened up in 74 he ran in a seat that was based in the neighborhoods around JFK Airport. After the 1980 remap, his district was eliminated again and decided to run in Mario Biaggi's district. Biaggi if I recall was nice enough to step aside and run in a Yonkers district.

    His district was eliminated again after the 1990 census and finally retired. I read in one of the Almanacs that the NY dem leaders didn't like him.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 09:03:41 PM PST

  •  Yay! (0+ / 0-)

    Moar congressional numbers!  :D :D :D

  •  IL-02: Surprised no one has mentioned this (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, itskevin, askew

    David (or someone) tweeted about this earlier today:

    The Chicago Tribune has found Toi Hutchison's NRA questionnaire:

    Can we stop pretending that she's acceptable for this seat? Have to believe this sinks her.

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 10:52:36 PM PST

    •  this doesn't sink her* (0+ / 0-)

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 10:52:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The more I hear about this race (3+ / 0-)

      the more I think Robin Kelly is favored to win.

      I could see the final spread being something like this:

      Kelly: 35%
      Hutchinson: 25%
      Halvorson: 20%
      Beale: 10%
      Reynolds: 5%
      Everyone else combined: 5%

    •  Oh dear (4+ / 0-)

      "I'm saying very clearly I'm moderating my positions."

      Etch-a-Sketching: you're doing it wrong.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 11:26:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Doesn't sound like a true change of conviction (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        If Hutchinson actually had a change of conviction on gun-related issues, she'd say that "I used to support the NRA's agenda until I realized how extreme it was, and I now support responsible gun control measures", or something else along those lines.

        Also, Hutchinson touted the fact that she's "worked with the NRA" early in her congressional campaign. She's since deleted the post in question from her campaign Facebook page, but here it is:

        We have to stop tragedies like Newtown, and that means we need an all-of-the-above strategy. We can’t afford partial solutions because we can’t lose so many innocent lives again. In my time in the State Senate, I’ve worked with the NRA, law enforcement and gun control advocates. If we have any hope of finding a solution, we need to elect someone who can bring all sides to the table to pass reasonable gun control along with programs that catch and treat mentally ill individuals before they become dangerous. In Congress, I’ll stand with President Obama to pass an assault weapons ban, outlaw high capacity ammunition clips, close the gun show loophole and other reasonable steps to curb gun violence. But just passing stricter rules on guns isn’t enough–we need a comprehensive approach that also includes anti-violence initiatives like gang intervention and afterschool programs and mental health treatment.

        Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

        by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 12:05:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It kind of reminds me... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          Of now-Rep. Filemon Vela. Of course, a certain poster here who is a vocal Hutchison partisan was a staunch critic of Vela during his primary duel with underfunded Denise Blanchard, arguing that Vela had never renounced his Republican leanings and had a latent conservative ideology. Funny how that works.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 01:59:14 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Hutchinson is talking like a loser (5+ / 0-)

      She's accusing Robin Kelly of running "a single-issue campaign" and trying to score "more political points" because she's criticized Halvorson and Hutchinson over their support of the NRA's agenda.

      That's loser talk.

      Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

      by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 11:28:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Why did Bloomberg go after Halverson (0+ / 0-)

      and not Hutchison with his attack ad?  Is Halverson a pro-gun true believer whereas Hutchison was playing footsie out of political expediency?

      Or take on the top candidate, knowing that Toi would also be pulled in and exposed on the issue anyways?

      Keystone XL Pipeline - Canada gets the money, Asia gets the oil, America gets the toxic refinery pollution and the ecological disaster pipeline leak risk.

      by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 06:40:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  John Nichols unearths another GOP EC-rigging ploy (0+ / 0-)

    Nichols described it here.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 01:56:07 AM PST

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