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The Cult -- "She Sells Sanctuary"

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Comment Preferences

  •  I missed all of the commotion this morning (7+ / 0-)

    But my point of view on Brown not running is hallelujah.

    I mean, candidly, I don't care if he runs for Governor. On balance it would be better if there were not a Republican governor of MA, but that would be much less consequential to the country than having another Republican Senator. And there's no guarantee he would win that race either.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 04:37:28 PM PST

    •  Only problem with him being Governor (5+ / 0-)

      2020 redistricting, assuming he wins reelection.  Although we should still hopefully be able to override his veto, one never knows.  Otherwise, with veto-proof majorities and no national future for Brown, I really don't care much.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 05:07:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nice Ron Brownstein article (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Audrid, MichaelNY, northcountry21st

    on Obama reshaping the Democratic coalition:

    On issues from gay rights to gun control, immigration reform, and climate change—all of which he highlighted in his ringing Inaugural Address last week—Obama is now unreservedly articulating the preferences of the Democratic “coalition of the ascendant” centered on minorities, the millennial generation, and socially liberal upscale whites, especially women....

    In his victory, Obama reshaped the Democratic coalition by both addition and subtraction. Because so many of the blue-collar and older whites who formerly anchored the conservative end of the Democratic base abandoned Obama, and because more-liberal voters took their place, the coalition that reelected him was much more ideologically unified around a left-leaning agenda than has been usual for a Democratic nominee.

    That outcome, insiders acknowledge, gives the president greater confidence to move forward aggressively on these issues without fear of dividing his supporters. Equally important, the fact that Obama’s key groups are all expanding within the electorate has stirred optimism among his advisers that the coalition of the ascendant could provide Democrats a durable advantage in presidential elections.

    Does make you wonder about 2016. African Americans may well be a smaller share of the electorate, and they'll almost certainly vote less overwhelmingly for the Democrat. (If Obama had won blacks 90-10 instead of 96-4 or whatever, that would have shrunk his margin of victory by more than 1%.) Hispanics are sure to keep growing their electoral share, but either Rubio or Bush would likely do better among them than Romney did. And Clinton might be able to spike turnout and performance among women, but O'Malley et al. don't really bring any such advantage to the table. Could any of them improve significantly among whites to make up the difference? I don't know...
    •  O'Malley (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY, askew, betelgeux, gabjoh

      probably appeals pretty well to Black voters too, considering he was Mayor of Baltimore, a majority-Black city.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 05:08:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He won the Democratic primary for mayor (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        betelgeux, MichaelNY

        fairly commandingly as well (>50%) over a black member of the city council, and you have to imagine that electorate has an even greater percentage of blacks.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:41:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I think you're very wrong on Rubio or Bush (5+ / 0-)

      Things have changed from the Bush years for the GOP with Hispanics, while Dubya never did as well as the erroneous national exit poll claimed he did at least have something to sell to them in the form of health care, education, and a sincere effort on immigration.

      Hispanics now are hostile to the GOP across-the-board, and it rubs off on all Republicans.

      Keep in mind very importantly that comprehensive immigration reform is the big issue NOW, it's NOT something on the table for GOP candidates in 2016.  Either it happens now and Jeb Bush has nothing to run on, or it doesn't happen and he can't run on it because wingnuts will view it settled and crush anyone who advocates it.

      Rubio, for his part, has done something I've tweeted but that the media and other junkies haven't noticed:  he's jammed himself on 2016 with the immigration issue.  Rubio initially post-election insisted on piecemeal reform, opposing a comprehensive bill.  But then he re-calculated that that wouldn't cut it with Hispanics and others he would need for a general election in 2016, so he flip-flopped...a flip-flop no one has called out.  But now he's scrambling desperately to pacify wingnuts condemning "amnesty."  This is a potential disaster for Rubio, IMO a very likely disaster, because he's either got to vote for an immigration bill that's lenient enough on a path to citizenship that Obama and Democrats will support it, in which case wingnuts will skewer him and he's badly damaged in the 2016 primaries......or he walks away, in which case his argument for his candidacy blows up, he no longer can claim to be able to win over Hispanic voters.  Rubio is in deep trouble on this issue, in a way that no one yet seems to really notice.  I suppose he calculated in the first place that he can't stay out of immigration, he has to be out front on it or else he doesn't support his own candidacy's argument at all.

      I have no idea which way immigration ends up going, but Rubio is really stuck.  And if he does vote "no" or the thing gets no vote at all, then forget about Rubio overperforming with Hispanics in the general.  And that's almost certainly the only way he even makes it to the general.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 07:55:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  For what it's worth, PPP showed Hillary... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Beating either Rubio or Rand Paul in Kentucky!

      http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

      Now of course I know not to take early polls too seriously, and I don't expect Hillary to carry Kentucky in 2016.  But I do think she will do better in Appalachia than Obama or for that matter Kerry did, and that has implications for Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, where even a slightly better showing in Appalachia could counteract any decline in African American turnout compared to 2008 and 2012.   And I'm not sure that her actual percentage of the black vote will be much below Obama's; polls show that she is very popular among African Americans, who apparently do not hold her 2008 primary campaign against  her.  And remember that if she is the Democratic candidate, Obama will endorse her, campaign for her, and make his database resources available to her.  

  •  1990's throwback (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, sapelcovits, MenhentheDem

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, Coya shouldn't have been sent home.

    by WisJohn on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 05:13:44 PM PST

  •  Ed Markey, #Bqhatevwr (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea
    Scott Brown would enter the Massachusetts Senate special election with only a slight lead over the Democratic establishment’s candidate, Rep. Ed Markey, according to a poll released Wednesday by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling.

    Warning - some snark above‽ (-9.50; -7.03)‽ "We're like a strip club with a million bouncers and no strippers." (HBO's Real Time, January 18, 2013)

    by annieli on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 05:14:04 PM PST

  •  I'm most interested in the remaining Cabinet (6+ / 0-)

    post nominations.  Looking at the latest rumors and rumblings it seems there is only one more current elected official that will be tapped - Colorado Lt. Governor Joe Garcia for Labor.  These "lesser" cabinet spots can come out of left field - Mr. Garcia comes from an educaction- focused background.  I remember reading great things about him when he was chosen by Hickenlooper to be his running mate - passionate, dynamic and a real riser.  

    Villagers are worried about the cabinet being too old and white eventhough only one woman was replaced - Clinton by Kerry.  Panetta/Hagel, Geithner/Lew, Lew/McDonough all didn't change the diversity one iota.  

    Joe Garcia would be replacing Hilda Solis.  

    Other rumors of the moment -

    Interior - John Berry.  Would be first openly gay cabinet Secretary.

    Commerce - Perry Pritzker (will get the most stink from all sides because she is major bundler for Obama campaigns (right will hate this, call patronage) and left will hate her because she is of the Hyatt ownership - anti-worker union battles, turning on outside heaters during heatwave during the summer for example.  

    Transportation - Antonio Villaraigosa, mayor of Los Angeles.  Term limited out, and no where to move up in Cali.  Transportation in LA was a major focus of his.  I don't know if he'd be worth the drama he could bring.  

    Energy - Tom Steyer  Hedge Fund Billionaire, but one of the good guys.  Really involved with California environmental issues and put his money where is mouth is to help defeat anti-enviro issues.  

    EPA - Gina McCarthy, currently the assistant administrator for the EPA Office of Air and Radiation.  The genius here is she has been appointed by Republican Governors in the past to environmental protection rolls - Gov Rell in Ct and Gov Romney(ha!) in Massachusetts.  She's no shrinking violet, a frank talker who will not take a step back.  

    So out of these six spots there is only one straight white dude in the bunch.  

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 05:26:40 PM PST

    •  Disagree with Transportation (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      howabout, betelgeux

      I'd put former Michigan governor Jen Granholm there. She was the governor of the state with the heart of the auto industry, so Transportation Secretary is a natural extension of that. And like you said, Villaraigosa probably isn't worth the drama.

      Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

      by interstate73 on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 05:41:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Very skeptical on this basis. (9+ / 0-)
        She was the governor of the state with the heart of the auto industry, so Transportation Secretary is a natural extension of that.
        If she would run the Department of Transportation as an extension of the auto industry, she should stay away. We need to build mass transit and long-distance trains, not continue America's "love affair" with the auto industry. Lest we forget, they were part of a conspiracy several decades ago that bought up and destroyed trolley tracks throughout the country, and they bear a very heavy responsibility for excess deaths from air pollution and damage from global warming.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 08:12:30 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  His reasons (9+ / 0-)

          His reason for mentioning her for the spot was wrong, but Granholm was actually a HUGE proponent of mass transit, and rail in particular, much to the consternation of the Michigan Senate, who blocked her every chance they got.  It sucks that Snyder is reaping all of the rewards of her years'-long push for mass transit in Michigan.  They basically told her to go to hell, but Snyder has gotten everything he wants.  I guess it really did take Nixon to go to China.

          •  As usual (5+ / 0-)

            Granholm gets blamed for everything, but credit for nothing.

            •  J Granholm is the highest profile woman that can (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              be appointed to the Cabinet, and I think she will be appointed to some position except if C Levin decides to retire. A fast decission from him would help.

              •  You're suggesting she would otherwise (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                abgin

                run for the Senate? Why do you think she would, and why do you think she'd have a chance (or think she'd have a chance) to win?

                Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                by MichaelNY on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 11:59:33 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I think J Granholm would be the strongest candidat (0+ / 0-)

                  She ends her term as an unpopular governor, but in 2010, very few where popular. Since then we see a good number of poll results for this cycle about then unpopular incumbents that are now competitive for a rematch or for a return.

                  We see Rendell leading in PA, we see Strickland well in OH, we see Culver competitive in Iowa and also we see Baldacci competitive in Maine. In the other side we see Carcieri strongly underperforming.

                  I think J Granholm would still overperform the Democratic candidates that we see in the last poll (Vernero, Peters, Schauer and Whitmer. For me it is not rare to see the candidates that come from the US House under Vernero. It is one habitual trend in so big states. You can see the same in the polls for NC-Sen, GA-Sen, PA-Sen and MA-Sen recently (Markey is becoming stronger now).

                  From what I see in the polls I think she would fairly overperfom all the other Democratic candidates in a poll by at least 5 points.

          •  And the building of the second bridge... (4+ / 0-)

            GOP State Senate blocked that under Granholm, Snyder comes in and all of a sudden it's getting built (or will be in very short order).  

            "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

            by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 10:03:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I kind of figured the explanation was erroneous (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            betelgeux

            Thanks for confirming that.

            I really try to be careful to use the word "if" when I don't know if something is true.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 10:10:12 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I mean (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              All Michigan governors have to be at least publically non-hostile to the Big Three, but she was the first governor to truly try to diversify the economy in any real or concerted way.  A lot of that was out of sheer necessity as the industry was having a tough time even before the near collapse that came at the end of her last term, but a lot of that was just plain common sense, you know, not wanting to keep all of your eggs in one basket.

              BTW, just to drive home the point, the Michigan Senate during her time had to have been one of the most intractable in the country.  Two government shutdowns and many more threatened, and this after they had lost the state house.  I've had flashbacks these past few years when viewing House Republicans in Congress. lol

          •  Sorry but Snyder does deserve the credit (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, R30A, sacman701, CF of Aus

            It is not like Granholm was the first to push for regional transit, so to say that he is reaping the rewards for all her effort is a little much. Various people tried 23 previous times and failed.

            It wasn't easy for Snyder to get it done. He had to really push his party. The plan almost failed because Democrats were protesting every vote after RTW. Not only did he get a RTA, he got exemptions from zoning, and a funding mechanism. I am not a fan of Snyder, but his ability to get that done is simply amazing.

            As for Granholm, I think she could be good at DOT, but I would prefer her as AG. I have a feeling that Republicans might give her a hard time. I don't think DOT is worth a hard confirmation, but AG is worth the fight.

            M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

            by slacks on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 10:42:12 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  If they want to avoid the drama of (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Villaraigosa at Transportation, another choice would be Deborah Hersman, the chair of the NTSB. She was originally appointed by Bush in 2004(and reappointed in 2009 by Obama), and previously worked for Dem congressman Bob Wise.

      Would be an easy confirmation, and would continue the focus on safety that Lahood brought to the department(his no texting and driving, efforts for instance).

      If Bill White doesnt want to run for political office again, he might be an option at the Energy department. He was the Deputy Energy Sec in the Clinton admin. Byron Dorgan is another one would could end up at Energy.  

      I agree, McCarthy for EPA would be  great. I'm not sure if her current position required Senate confirmation.  If so, even better, because she has been through the vetting.

    •  I think Gregoire may get Interior, also Cathy Zoi (0+ / 0-)

      is a contender for Energy, Sylvia Matthews Burwell is basically a lock for OMB.

    •  WA Post (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

      reported Sally Jewell the president of REI, the outdoor clothing retailer, is in line for Interior and Jane Garvey for Transportation.

      I haven't seen any talk at all about Granholm.

    •  Looks like Villaraigosa is out as DOT secretary (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jncca, betelgeux

      He says he will serve out his term as LA mayor.

      That's only until June 30, but I doubt the WH waits that long on a cabinet appointment.

      I think the WH might have told he wouldnt be chosen and this is his way of breaking the news.

      •  I think this mean not too much (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I see perfectly Obama fighting for the confirmation of new appointments in the senate until July because the level of obstruction of the Republicans.

        Obama is doing high profile appointments and will defend them as hard as the Republicans will fight them.

        •  Really, until July? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          abgin, gabjoh

          Who do you think he will still be trying to get confirmed then?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 10:17:21 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Im looking to the data of new confirmations (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            and still I see not data for Lew confirmation. Hagel is the following in the list. I would not be surprised if Hagel is not confirmed until March. Even after Kerry's confirmation Obama does not new appointments, that means the appointments of Lew and Hagel goes for long.

            With 8-9 Cabinet level positions more to have replacements after Hagel, the timeline can go until June or July with the current level of obstruction. That if Obama gets not bored before and asks to some of the current officers to continue more time. Obama would let to the end the new appointments to replace the current officers that can continue in their office for longer.

            After Lew's confirmation it would be logical the appointment for the vacant offices.

    •  I don't know about Mayor Villaraigosa (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      The whole Charlie Sheen thing is just a mess that doesn't beg to become a political controversy enveloping the White House.

      I've mentioned that I'd really like David Bragdon, the former Metro president and New York City planner, to be transportation secretary. He did great things for transportation and land use in Oregon, and he's doing good work in New York. But I haven't heard his name ring out.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 08:48:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I haven't heard of him (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        He must not have too high a profile here in New York.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 10:17:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  lower than he did here (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          and Metro, though fairly powerful (doing long term land use planning for the lands in it from the three metro counties, transportation, parks and green spaces, and also running the convention center and zoo), there is virtually no one here who knows who the metro councilors are.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 12:19:36 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I don't know much about Bragdon (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, gabjoh

        but if we were to steal someone from the Bloomberg administration for secretary of transportation, I'd love to see Janette Sadik-Khan. Actually, no I wouldn't, as NYC still needs her, but she would be a wonderful national advocate of alternative transportation.

        Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

        by R30A on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 10:31:55 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I think Obama is being smart and prudent (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I think we will have less changes than expected because the Republicans will figth the new nominees.

      It is smart to adapt the rythm of nominations to the rythm of the senate confirmations, that will be very slow. And also I think it is smart to fight hard for the confirmation of every nominee.

      I also think the cabinet will have higher profile appointees. Until now we see it with Kerry, Lew and Hagel.

    •  I would like Obama considers the appointment (0+ / 0-)

      I would like Obama considers the appointment to Cabinet positions of:

      E Rendell
      R Feingold
      J Lynch

      I hope they be first level challengers for the senate seats in their home states in 2016.

    •  So, now women only make up 30% of cabinet. (0+ / 0-)

      So with your picks. The cabinet will have gone from:

      Men - 12
      Women - 8

      to:

      Men - 14
      Women - 6

      I  know you don't care about diversity, but it is going to piss off a lot of women voters and women's groups. Obama couldn't have gotten elected without women voters.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 10:40:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Or White male voters... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, R30A, gabjoh

        Or nearly any decent sized demo.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 10:56:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh noes! White males are totally in danger (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, gabjoh

          of being underrepresented!

          Seriously, nobody really cares about this stuff who isn't already a partisan, but diversity in positions of power is good for society.

          •  I completely agree but... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I don't think jncca was disagreeing with you either. I think he was just making the point that saying Obama wouldn't win without (x) group is sort of silly since he would have lost had his support dipped much within any reasonably large demographic group.

            26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

            by okiedem on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 09:03:29 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I was just saying that I think saying (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            "Obama wouldn't have won without x" is a silly line of thinking.

            Obama was put over the top by evangelicals.  Or the LGBT community.  Or Hispanics.  Or white men.  Or women.  Or college students.  Do we want a cabinet full of college students?

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 10:22:01 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  How many women do you think will know (6+ / 0-)

        or care much about the number of women in the Cabinet? Besides, there are more people to be picked.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 11:13:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  yeah (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, AussieforObama2ndterm

          My wife is a garden variety feminist who is fairly interested in politics. I don't think she could name a single cabinet secretary except for maybe John Kerry.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:43:51 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I care (6+ / 0-)

            Not because I believe in tokenism, but because I believe it's good for society. For starters, having people who like them in (or who has been in) a position of power is important if we want to be able to seem credible when tell kids in this country that they can be anything they want if they work hard. But even more than that, it actually effects which policy areas are on the radar. For example, NYC's racist stop and frisk policy is likely to be much higher on the radar of a black man than a generally equally liberal white man.

            •  particularly in the judicial system (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              BeloitDem, gabjoh, MichaelNY

              the reasonableness standard is applied in many cases, both criminal and civil.  That is, what would a reasonable person think/expect/do in the situation at issue?  Having a court with more diverse backgrounds and experiences provides courts a better notion of what is reasonable.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 09:18:11 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  I totally agree (2+ / 0-)

              You are 100% right, and your example is extremely well chosen.

              All I'm saying is that I don't think that, even if the number of women in the Cabinet decreases, it will have electoral consequences or seriously dent the president's support from women.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 12:52:28 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  If Romney had been elected (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          there would be a lot more women in positions of power.  After all, he had binders full of them!

          Seriously, I don't think most voters of either sex care about the gender composition of the Cabinet, and those who do pay attention to it are probably committed to one party or the other.  Same for race or ethnicity.

          That said, diversity is a worthy thing, and appointing mostly white men looks backward in this day and age.  But there shouldn't be a de facto quota system in which certain positions or a certain number of them should be reserved for women, minorities, etc.  There are enough well qualified women and minorities today that they can be considered on an equal basis with men and whites; regarding the federal government and judiciary, I give the Clinton administration a lot of credit in increasing diversity and opening the way to a broader variety of people in high positions.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 09:02:13 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Let me try it- I know you are a one issue voter... (0+ / 0-)

        only thing that matters is women.

        Gee, that is fun.  

        "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

        by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 07:44:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  That was pretty uncalled for particularly (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, MichaelNY

        this:

        I  know you don't care about diversity
        since I have no idea how you gathered that from Jacoby's post.

        26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:11:21 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I know it because he has a long history (0+ / 0-)

          of mocking people for caring about diversity.

          President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

          by askew on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 12:16:49 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  JJ? I think he usually discusses it as if (0+ / 0-)

            it's at least important to others, even if it isn't to him.  We do have some people here who are reactionary on the issue but I don't recall him being one.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 03:44:03 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  My "Dream Picks" (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      for Cabinet positions would definitely include Rosa DeLauro for Secretary of Labor, Shirley Ann Jackson as Secretary of Energy, Raul Grijalva as Secretary of the Interior, and Granholm for Secretary of Transportation.

      DeLauro is one of the most progressive and outspoken members of the House, and she would definitely be a fighter for labor rights as Secretary of Labor. I may be biased, since she's my congresswoman, but she has a record of consistently pushing progressive, pro-labor policies, even when the political tide is not in her favor.

      Shirley Jackson has been an advocate for federal support for renewable energy technology, and is the President of Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, a school which is known for its innovative and entrepreneurial spirit. She would definitely be a major advocate for renewable energy small businesses and startups.

      Grijalva is another excellent progressive congressman who is a leader on environmental issues. I think he would always put environmental protection ahead of corporate interests, a quality we need in an interior secretary.

      Granholm, as MetroGnome pointed out, was a leader in mass transportation development in her state, and her appointment would be a sign that Obama is finally ready to focus on much-needed infrastructure repairs and expansion.

      Of course, given this administration's track record on progressive policies I doubt any of these would actually get the jobs (except maybe Granholm). But a man can dream...

      Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

      by betelgeux on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 09:34:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Antonio Villaraigosa (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      He announced he would not accept Sec. of Transportation so back to the drawing board on that pick.

      "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

      by walja on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 01:44:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Donald Payne Jr.'s bowtie (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, DCCyclone, betelgeux

    Look at it. Just....just look at it.

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 05:29:15 PM PST

  •  MA-Sen and beating whoever the GOP puts up (0+ / 0-)

    also IA-Sen and here's a piece of music I discovered recently:

    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

    by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 05:29:17 PM PST

  •  NJ-Sen Special (0+ / 0-)

    I'm just assuming its going to happen at this point. Menendez is beyond toast. I would bet that Christie will appoint Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr. to the seat, if for no other reason than the benefit of his name (his father was a wildly popular governor back in the 80s). And FWIW (I know I'm going to get alot of hate for this), if it came down to a choice between Kean and Menendez, I would probably choose Kean, given how scummy Menendez is beginning to appear. Also, Kean is so centrist that he would probably be more of a pain in the ass for the Republicans than he's worth. For every time he helped the Republicans he would piss them off 10 times (kind of like Ben Nelson was to us). Of course I would support the Democrat in the 2013 special (assuming they're not beholden to the party bosses, like Senate Pres. Sweeney), but were Kean to win, which would be a real possibility given the impending Christie landslide, he wouldn't be completely unacceptable.

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 05:38:23 PM PST

  •  Open Thread Question Time! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Xenocrypt, Stephen Wolf, WisJohn

    Which DKEers would you most like to have a beer and / or get drunk with? This should be purely based on posting history, so try not to pick anyone you've actually gotten drunk with in real life.

    My top 6 probably goes something like this:

    1. Sawolf
    2. SaoMagnifico
    3. David Nir
    4. Sapelcovits
    5. Xeno
    6. James Allen

  •  So earlier this evening I went to a fundraiser for (20+ / 0-)

    Senator Kay Hagan in Greensboro and there were what seems like over 100 people packed into her Greensboro home for the event. I had the chance to meet her as well as other prominent Greensboro Democrats such as councilwoman Nancy Vaughan and her husband, former state senator Don Vaughan.

    Hagan gave a speech for a couple of minutes in which she criticized the impact Citizens United was having on our elections and went on to talk about the things she has accomplished in her term, such as preventing medicaid patients with Alzheimer's from being forced out of adult care facilities and into less suitable nursing homes. She talked in some generic terms about how we need to fix the deficit in a balanced manner but didn't bring up any specifics. Finally, she emphasized how ready she was for the campaign and in fact said to me earlier how it couldn't possibly be any worse than 2008.

    I expect she'll put up fairly strong fundraising numbers for the first few quarters and I really don't see her losing at this point as Republicans have basically no strong candidates to run. Foxx would be an unmitigated disaster, Ellmers would be pretty bad too, and likely nominee House Speaker Thom Tillis should hopefully be tarnished by the unpopularity of all the ridiculous crap the legislature passes this year.  Republicans would have been much better off if McCrory had passed on the gubernatorial race and run for senate instead, but of course that was never going to happen.

  •  question for Michael or any of the NY DKErs (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    1. Why did the dems give D'Amato a free pass in 86?
    2. how come the republicans didn't primary D'Amato in 98? I would have thought that someone like Rick Lazio or George Pataki would have come a lot closer to defeating Schumer
    3. If Lazio hadn't gave his house seat up a dozen years ago, would he still be in office?

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 07:56:18 PM PST

    •  I think (0+ / 0-)

      Green was considered a big up and comer back then, no?

      31/D/M/NY-01/SSP: Tekzilla

      by Socks The Cat on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 08:13:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, I don't think so (0+ / 0-)

        But wasn't his opponent some empty suit corporate conservative Democrat? OK, I just checked here: The name of the Democrat he defeated was John Dyson (talk about a forgotten name), who remained on the Liberal Party line in the general election, but it didn't matter, considering the lopsided margin by which D'Amato won that year.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 08:28:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Dyson. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I looked him up too:

          He was Commissioner of Commerce during the creation of the popular tourism advertising campaign, "I Love New York," by his deputy, William S. Doyle.[2]

          [...]

          In 1986, Dyson ran for the Democratic Nomination for the U.S. Senate, a race Cuomo encouraged him to undertake. Dyson lost the Democratic nomiation to consumer advocate Mark J. Green. In 1994, Dyson was appointed as Deputy Mayor of New York City by Mayor Rudy Giuliani. As deputy mayor, Dyson was in charge of economic development and finance for the city. He served as deputy mayor until 1996, when he returned to private life. He continued to serve in the Giuliani Administration from 1996 to 2002 in the part time position of Chairman of the Mayor's Council of Economic Advisors.

          But, uh, the I Love New York thing!

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

          by Xenocrypt on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 08:39:46 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Al Sharpton backed D'Amato in the race (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      and Ed Koch spurned Green, who defeated the establishment choice of the Democratic Party.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 08:21:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hm. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      The second question is Interesting.  Lazio really stomped in NY-02 even in 1996, when Clinton was really stomping there too.  But I'd have to know more about the redistricting politics.  Israel barely won it in 2002, and then won it solidly, but by the Gore numbers it only got slightly bluer in redistricting.  Even if Lazio won the pretty-blue NY-02 of the late 90s, I don't know if he could have held on to it through 2006 and 2008.  I can sort of see him losing in 2006 or 2008, coming back in 2010, and then losing again as part of the strong 2012 Democratic performance in New York.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 08:23:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Democrats voted for Green in the primary (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, R30A

      because he was more liberal. Unfortunately, he was probably too liberal to win statewide in those days, and it didn't help that he fundraised poorly and the New York Times endorsed D'Amato for reelection for the ridiculous reason that Green was likely to lose, essentially.

      On #2, I don't agree with you at all. D'Amato always got a lot of campaign contributions from people and businesses that profited from his pork in the Senate. No-one else would have had a better shot in that election. Plus, you don't primary a 3-term senator who's pretty conservative (as the word was understood in those days) and nevertheless able to win repeatedly in New York.

      On #3, I'm not sure. Lazio obviously wasn't very charismatic. I don't know how much the composition of his district changed after he left office, but as I recall, he was never threatened in any House election.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 08:25:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Btw, Donovan is staying on at HUD, his spokesman (7+ / 0-)

    confirmed it on January 16th, the president asked him to stay and he agreed.

  •  I was working a Texas map for if the state had 39 (3+ / 0-)

    districts, which it might have in 2020. Drawing it in favor of Democrats, I drew two of the three new seats in the Houston area. I also eliminated the ridiculous District 10 in the area. Here is what the Houston area looks like in my map. Maybe a diary to come soon. I like my Beaumont/Port Arthur to Houston seat (which is partially cut off).
     photo Texas-Houston39_zpsc27faac0.jpg

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 08:28:31 PM PST

    •  I've also done a TX39 map. (0+ / 0-)

      Gotta say, lot less neat than yours. :P

      British guy with a big interest in US politics; -1.88, -4.05. A liberal, a moderate and a conservative walk into a bar. The bartender says "Hey Mitt".

      by General Goose on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 10:10:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Also (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Englishlefty

      I'm in the middle of a diary like this, but I'm factoring in population growth estimates from the State Comptroller's office.

      Obviously we can't estimate disparate growth within a county, so I've been inflating each precinct within a county by the percentage that the overall country grew to get a rough population estimate. So obviously more populous precincts will grow more absolutely than will less populous precincts, and will further cluster population in already more populous areas. Although this isn't exactly how growth works in the real world (where the population growth is clustered in the suburban ring while inner areas decline), I can't simulate that in a standardized way.

      The same estimates also have demographic breakdowns, which allows me to estimate future demographics of each precinct. So what I've been doing is to say that (let's use Harris County as an example) if district 18's portion of Harris County contains 35% of the county's current African American population, 18% of the African American population growth will occur there (those aren't the numbers, but for example it works). So AA (and all other groups') growth will be dispersed around the county in a manner similar to how it is now. This makes for a very easy way to estimate demographics of future districts.

      I'm also using a very detailed technique to estimate the voting population and the expected presidential year and midterm year election results.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 11:50:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Although (0+ / 0-)

        My diary will be 38 seats, not 39, as the most recent estimate has Texas picking up 2 I think.

        I should have bookmarked that page. I think it was NYT, but am not sure. The RCP study from 2011 had us picking up 3, though.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 01:50:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  IL-02: Hutchinson picked up the endorsment (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY, gabjoh

    of AFSCME. The union has 7,000 members in the 2nd CD. This is the first union endorsement of the race, as far as I know.

    http://thesouthern.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 10:03:59 PM PST

    •  It's also probably the most substantive endorsment (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      behind the Preckwinkle endorsement.

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 10:12:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Kelly's strategy revolved around getting (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, gabjoh

      the Preckwinkle endorsement and hoping that Bloomberg would attack both Halvorson and Hutchinson. That didn't happen and now Hutchinson has union support. Though Kelly out raised Hutchinson, it wasn't like either raised that much. At this point I would consider Hutchinson to be the front runner.

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 10:14:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why do you think that didn't happen? (0+ / 0-)
        hoping that Bloomberg would attack both Halvorson and Hutchinson

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 11:15:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Hutchinson has come out in support of (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          a number of gun control measures. Halvorson has not. In fact, she's been pretty unapologetic about her positions on gun control.

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 11:38:10 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Kelly doesn't necessarily need Bloomberg (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        To attack Hutchison. Now that Bloombito has assisted in the torpedoing of the ex-Rep, Kelly can now focus all her cash on attacking Hutchison's A-rating.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 12:16:45 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Her $200,000 in one of the most expensive (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh

          media markets in the country? Sure....

          20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

          by ndrwmls10 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 12:24:59 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Easier to use against one opponent rather than two (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

            And could you at least try to not be so obviously in the can for Hutchison? It really hurts your argument every time you bring up the race.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 04:10:27 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  So your saying I should be less obviouse about (0+ / 0-)

              which candidates I prefer? That makes so much sense. What I say is true. You make of it what you want.

              20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

              by ndrwmls10 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 05:15:17 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I agree with you that it's fine (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

                to be clear about who you support, in fact we all should be.  However, I think we should also not let that cloud our analysis.  When you said

                At this point I would consider Hutchinson to be the front runner.
                it appeared that way, because I don't believe there has been any indication that she is in the lead.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 09:02:00 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  It's an assumption on my part. (0+ / 0-)

                  We've only seen two polls of this race. Each had Hutchinson is 2nd place. Both were before Bloomberg began his ad campaign against Halvorson. There is no hard numbers beyond that. I read the tea leaves and to me an endorsement from Preckwinkle is a sign of Hutchinson's strength. She also now has the strength of a union endorsement. I think we can all agree that's more important then a group of state senators endorsing either way.

                  20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                  by ndrwmls10 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 09:36:07 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Maybe (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    HoosierD42, MichaelNY, betelgeux

                    Or maybe Hutchinson and Halvorson are splitting the pro-NRA vote and Robin Kelly is ahead as the progressive favorite. Or maybe Hutchinson, Halvorson, and Kelly are splitting the female vote and Anthony Beale is ahead as the male favorite. Or maybe Hutchinson, Kelly, and Beale are splitting the black vote and Halvorson is still ahead due to strength among white primary voters and conservaDems.

                    It just kind of seems like in races like this, you look at (and post endlessly about) the factors that favor your preferred candidate and ignore everything else. And maybe Hutchinson will win; you were right last year about now-Rep. Lujan Grisham (whom I supported as well), now-Rep. Sinema (albeit by an uncomfortably thin margin), and Shelli Yoder (there not so much in the general election), but your arguments that people would support Susan Bysijkfkefkfekleg in Connecticut over then-Rep. Chris Murphy was rather less predictive, as was your cheerleading for Gloria Romero Roses and other doomed congressional candidates. And your sniping at now-Sen. Angus King (for the grave sin of sucking all the oxygen out of the room for Rep. Pingree and then running against Cynthia Dill in the general, despite the fact that I don't think he ever directed a single attack at her during the campaign) went on for far longer and took a far nastier bent than that of nearly any other poster here, and that turned out to be wildly misplaced.

                    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                    by SaoMagnifico on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 12:40:37 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  In the first poll (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    Hutchison was ahead of Kelly 16-15, i.e. not ahead at all. And having an A rating from the NRA in Chicago's South Side should be a death sentence in a Democratic primary no matter how much money the other candidate has.

                    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                    by HoosierD42 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:02:46 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  May I mention that was a Kelly internal. (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, gabjoh

                      The two polls were from Kelly and Hutchinson. The other one had it 12-8.

                      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                      by ndrwmls10 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:24:52 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I noticed that later, thanks for correcting me (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        So neither polls are trustworthy, basically. And they're both out of date since Bloomberg's attacks on Halvorson anyway.

                        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                        by HoosierD42 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 10:35:58 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

              •  I'm just saying (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

                There's a difference between having a candidate preference and being a shill.

                24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                by HoosierD42 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 07:56:14 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  He only posts about candidates... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HoosierD42

              For whom he is in the can. Or occasionally against rivals to those candidates, usually with something spurious and blown out of proportion.

              Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

              by SaoMagnifico on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 12:30:20 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  As much as I hope you're right (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I don't really know if we can clearly say one way or another, though I do think Halvorson is a decided underdog at this point.

        Vaccinate your child. Vaccinate yourself. | Pro-transit, pro-gun, anti-NRA young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

        by gabjoh on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 01:20:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Fan of Toi Hutchinson, I take it? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Stephen Wolf, bfen, HoosierD42

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 10:28:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  BMG: Jack E. Robinson may run as Indie for MA-Sen (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY

    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

    by KingofSpades on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 10:42:21 PM PST

  •  The Big Ten Basketball Title Race (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, sacman701

    Michigan (1) @ Indiana (3). This is probably the biggest game so far this college basketball season.

    Any other college basketball fans here? I am really excited about the game. I am a U-M student and a basketball fan.

    M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

    by slacks on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 11:05:56 PM PST

  •  question about downwithtyranny! blogspot (0+ / 0-)

    I would assume they attract the same crowd as DK. Nonetheless, does anyone think they give liberals/progressives a bad name? Reading their articles, I think there is a general crassness to them IMO.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 11:20:40 PM PST

  •  WI-SC: Roggensack campaign finance violation? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Audrid

    One Wisconsin Now, a progressive front group run by Scott Ross (Doug LaFollette's 2006 WI-SoS Dem primary challenger), has picked up on an apparent campaign finance violation by conservative Wisconsin Supreme Court justice Patience Roggensack, who is facing a retention election this year in the most important election of 2013 anywhere in the country.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 12:33:03 AM PST

  •  I'm interested in the CA-49 race (0+ / 0-)

    Jerry Tetalman ran a very credible campaign against Rep. Darrell Issa in California's 49th Congressional District that got very little coverage until the last few weeks of the campaign, when Tetalman was just starting to get press.

    I'm currently working my butt off in outreach to folks in San Diego, Carlsbad and other areas in Issa's district so we can shake things up a bit.  Voter registration increased Democratic and Independent in last election more significantly than before although not enough to give Tetalman the upper hand.  He had an uphill battle to climb.

    Now it's important to engage the CA-49 district voters who voted for Tetalman (over 110,000 of them) and start getting the campaign to beat Issa in 2014 starting now, whether Tetalman runs or not (although I'm pretty sure he'll run again in 2014).

    •  focus on something winnable. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv, MichaelNY

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 10:25:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Tetalman wasn't credible (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sacman701, BeloitDem

      He authored a book calling for a One World Government and advertised it all over his campaign website.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 12:26:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Um, have you read the book? (0+ / 0-)

        It's quite amazing read.  It's actually well ahead of his time.

        You're not progressive are you?

        •  Sao is progressive (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Audrid, SaoMagnifico, BeloitDem

          But unfortunately, most of this district's population are not. That is the point here: he wasn't credible for that district because he was a crazy one world government loony.  

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 12:54:36 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Do you understand what the book is? (0+ / 0-)

            Read it before you start going crazy with the analysis.

            One person told me on a blog that sure donated all because of Desmond Tutu being pictured with Jerry Tetalman.

            Tetalman has more progressive credentials than anyone who ran in 2012.  He's actually got more experience in that than 75% of people on Kos and I guarantee you, if you and Jerry were to talk, he'd be the kindest person in the world to you.  He's a tough guy, from Ohio and from Darrell Issa's own hometown.  He knows Issa well.

            And how fitting it is to have two Midwestern guys moving to California?

            Read more about Jerry Tetalman and you'll find there's plenty to like about him, including how he's a motivational speaker, successful real estate spokesman, mental health facility manager, nurse, investor, Toastmaster participant, anti-war protestor, major peace activist, etc.

            He's quite a smart guy.  He'd actually be a serious pro-environment advocate.  He even protested against the San Onofrio plant in the CA-49 district when not a lot of people did.  This guy's the real deal.

            Unfortunately, Tetalman didn't gain steam until the last two weeks of the election.  That just didn't cut it for him and he had a lot of ground to cover in a lean conservative district.

            The truth is, a deep red district cannot allow a Democratic candidate to get 40% or higher.  We're talking Oklahoma where the most a Democrat could get would be 35%.

            So now factor that in with Jerry Tetalman, who got 41% of the voters with near $100,000 in his campaign versus Rob Zerban who got 43% of the voters in Wisconsin's 1st Congressional District with a lot more donations and national attention.  However, Zerban didn't get anywhere near beating Paul Ryan even though Ryan never campaigned at all in the race.  Same thing with Wayne Powell and he didn't get anymore than say 42% in the race against Eric Cantor.

            So maybe we should say, Rob Zerban and Wayne Powell, don't run again in 2014 since you guys didn't win in 2012.  People kept saying on Kos that Zerban is the only person who can win in the race against Paul Ryan but he didn't get anywhere near beating Paul Ryan, not even close, not even after many on Kos were donating and lending sport.

            And the reason?  Rob Zerban according to Independents and Republicans was more partisan than he might have wanted to be.  Doesn't mean he's a bad candidate but he might have run a more inclusive campaign than he actually did and he could have gotten more votes.  However, Zerban ran basically because of Paul Ryan, not because of wanting to get involved in politics for a long time.

            Jerry Tetalman on the other hand, as loony as some people on Kos say he is, is very inclusive and not divisive when it comes to campaigning.  He's actually very respectful of other people's point of view, much similar to Barack Obama's tone of outreaching.  I'm not going to say Tetalman is the next Obama but his ability of inclusiveness is quite unique compared to most races in 2012.  I think because Tetalman has had a lot of accomplishments in his life, more so than even Zerban or Ami Bera (yes, Ami Bera).  He's done activism so long than he knows, in a business sense, how to make deals.  He's good at sales and at real estate.

            I think it helps to visit the CA-49 district and talk to Tetalman himself.  He's a nice guy.  Very respectful.

            •  ... (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Audrid, SaoMagnifico, BeloitDem

              All of this tells me one thing: Tetalman is a nice person.

              What you fail to understand is that Democrats get about 40% in this area of CA all the time. The problem is getting more than that, which they're almost incapable of getting apart from the top of the ticket (where Democrats can get 45-50%, but never above that).

              And it doesn't even take money to get that share of the vote, because you have a top of the ticket drawing partisan voters to the polls either in Presidential years or in midterms when Gubernatorial races are contested (and where the district is much more conservative - check the stats here: http://www.mpimaps.com/...).

              Much of what politics is is the art of the possible. Winning this district is not what is possible at the moment.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 01:21:49 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I'm aware of the percentage (0+ / 0-)

                Here's the reason why the Democrats don't get more than 40%:

                Not enough support.  There's no other explanation.

                You're forgetting two factors:

                1)  California is getting more blue by the year.  The GOP State Party is a mess and their voter activism and registration is AWFUL.  So if GOP voter registration sucks but Democratic Party doesn't lend in support, would it make a difference if say the DNC and DCCC gave more support to Tetalman and other candidates running in red districts in California as in voter registration and ground support?  Keep in mind that never happened to any candidates running in red districts.  DNC and DCCC never gave a single penny to any Democratic candidates in races didn't think could have been one.  So now, why is it that no one goes out there and does voter registration?  I thought we were about building the Democratic Party, not about just simply winning easy elections.

                2)  Campaigns like Tetalman and even the Democratic candidate who ran in California's 1st Congressional District (up by Mt. Shasta) didn't get as much traction as other races because they just didn't get coverage.  What if they got more coverage?  Wouldn't you argue that would make at least some difference?  It's not fair to argue that getting coverage wouldn't make a difference because let's face it:  Tetalman got no coverage, at least not until near the end of the campaign and it was mostly local TV coverage.

                •  On your points (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Audrid, SaoMagnifico, BeloitDem

                  1) The DNC and DCCC never gave money because they realized these were hopeless races, let alone in principle but more specifically because Tetalman was a trainwreck of a candidate for this district's demographics.

                  2) Campaign coverage has only minimal effect on voter choice according to most literature on the subject. The small, but still statistically significant, effect decreases in areas where there are strong party preferences such as CA-49 as can be seen by very high Republican identifying constituency (41%), much higher than the national average by the way.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:05:28 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  You guys are so wrong, here's the evidence (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

              of why Jerry Tetalman WILL BE THE NEXT CONGRESSMAN from CA-49. You guys are such DLC closet Rethuglicans.

              http://tinyurl.com/...

               

              26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

              by okiedem on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 06:50:14 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  The contents of the book are irrelevant (5+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              BeloitDem, wwmiv, sacman701, MichaelNY, gabjoh

              All people need to hear is the title, and bam, Tetalman is a nut in their eyes. If Tetalman had pulled even slightly close, Rep. Issa could have just run ads repeating the name of Tetalman's book over and over again, then cut to Issa wearing a flag pin, with a flapping flag in the background, saying, "I love America. I want to preserve and protect America so our children and their children and future generations can enjoy its liberties" and blah blah, and Issa wins by 50 points.

              Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

              by SaoMagnifico on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 10:28:42 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  This? (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Audrid, SaoMagnifico

          http://www.amazon.com/...

          It was published by a vanity press. Worse, actually: it was published by a no-name press with a horrible website.

          http://www.originpress.com/

          Should we really be calling things like that "a quite amazing read"?

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 01:15:26 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's so superficial man (0+ / 0-)

            You're judging a book by its cover man.  I've actually read the book and it's not as crazy as you think.  It's actually more of what governments in the future might end up turning out to be.

            Right now, there are peace conferences around the world in Bali and others.  Desmond Tutu is one of the most notable speakers and peace, according to Jerry Tetalman, is more practical now than it used to be ten years ago or twenty years ago.  How else could this explain how things have been starting to happen since Barack Obama was first elected?  Change has DEFINITELY happened although enough change?  Not enough.

            Check out this interview I had with Jerry Tetalman.  Read it and let me know what you think.  One thing to note, I summarized the answers Tetalman provided me as I only had my cell phone and am not the best at memory:

            http://www.dailykos.com/...

            I have a load of data and a number of responses by different Kos users.  Here's another link that you might find interesting.  I got over 80 Tweets on the diary (87 to be exact).  That's more of a call to action than anything man and demonstrates that blogging can produce good marketing data:

            http://www.dailykos.com/...

            •  Yeah (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Audrid, SaoMagnifico, BeloitDem

              I am judging a book by the press that published it, because that is what smart discerning critical individuals do.

              On your assertion that 87 data points can provide good marketing data: are you out of your mind? 87 data points isn't dispositive of anything. The margin of error on 87 data points makes it completely useless.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:08:57 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  No (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Daman09, tommypaine, MichaelNY

          I am not a progressive, because I don't believe holding the position that national borders should be erased and the American identity should be subsumed by a global identity is an asset for underfunded congressional candidates in ancestrally Republican districts.

          It's like you wandered onto the Elections subsite by mistake or something. Here, let me give you directions back to the main site: http://www.dailykos.com

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 10:09:01 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  you start with the lowest hanging fruit (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

      that ain't one of em

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 07:09:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I never evaluate races based on lowest hanging... (0+ / 0-)

        ...fruit.

        Being someone whose one half of family is hard right conservatives, I know conservatives' attitude.  My mother comes from Ogden, UT, one of the most conservative districts in the U.S.  I know conservatives minds.  

        CA-49 district is NOT that conservative.  More Democrats and Independents have registered in the district.

        And I actually have real data to prove it while others on Kos have still not proven me wrong with their lack of "data."

        •  Why don't you provide us with that data (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Audrid

          instead of simply asserting it?

          I've provided you with data points here, do me the same honor.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 12:55:17 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Be glad to (0+ / 0-)

            Here are important data points:

            First off, here's the California Secretary of State data, the most valid data there is as far as voter registration in 2012.  It breaks down all the Congressional districts in California by voter registration and in different parts of the district.  Very important for strategic planning if say you were to do voter registration and canvassing.  Same process happened for Jerry McNerney's campaign when they went in and eventually beat Richard Pombo for re-election.  Richard Pombo, by the way, was like Darrell Issa in that he was rich, powerful and had a lot of clout in Congress.  His district was once very conservative but became more liberal (I even met McNerney's campaign manager at a presentation in 2006):

            http://www.sos.ca.gov/...

            From this data, we have 101,703 Democrats and 151,830 Republicans in the CA-49 district.  Not exactly the kind of deep red district data that defines a deep red district.  The numbers would be way off as in 70,000 for Jerry Tetalman if say CA-49 was a deep district.

            Being that I know conservatives well in Utah, for someone like Pete Ashdown to get a lot of votes would be crazy because Utah is moderate at best.  He only got 30 some odd percent in his race against Orrin Hatch in 2006 who got 62%.  Now that's a deep red race in a deep red state (which at best could be moderate but it's not that moderate.

            Now here's a good site for more insight into the data of the CA-49 race:

            http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/...

            An important thing to note, more progressives even more progressive than Tetalman ran in 2012 but Tetalman got 35% of the vote and the rest got less than 10% of the vote in the Democratic primaries.  So you might argue it would be better for Democrats to run a moderate in the district.

            So why didn't they?  Well, it's because #1, they're scared of moderates wimping out against the scary conservatives, whom I'm not afraid of at all.  I've dealt with conservatives my whole life.

            Anyway, look at the numbers in the link above which show Jerry Tetalman's total campaign contributions vs. Darrell Issa's campaign contributions (aka cash on hand), last updated as of September 2012:

            Darrell Issa - $1.97 million
            Jerry Tetalman - $99,367

            Now the problem you should solve is, how can Jerry Tetalman win over 110,000 votes with only $99,000+ contributions?  Democrats can't get that simply because they're Democrats and voters see there's a Democrat on the ballot.  No one is going to vote for a candidate unless they're on the news or if say they've actually done the hard campaigning.  That's just the fact of life in politics.

            Here's the link again and pay close attention to this pie chart on there that summarizes the voting percentage of Democrats, Republicans and Independents (marked as DTS):

            http://www.aroundthecapitol.com/...

            The percentage of Democrats:  24%
            The percentage of DTS voters:  28%
            The percentage of Republicans:  41%

            So in truth, a 41% - 24% ratio would be a bit on the deep red end if say you didn't include the DTS data.  DTS voters aren't Democratic by default but lean more Democratic these days due to the hyper partisan games the GOP plays and those turn off DTS voters.

            However, with adding the DTS voting percentage, you have the total coming out to 52% for Democrats and 41% for Republicans.  Mind you, this doesn't mean that Jerry Tetalman would win easily if for the sake of the argument he was ahead of the race in 2012.  At best, if Tetalman did win (which both he and I knew wasn't going to be possible), it would have been narrowly, just like Michelle Bachmann narrowly beat Jim Graves in her Congressional race in Minnesota.  So lots of people fight in Minnesota to beat Bachmann.  Where are those people in the CA-49 district?  Bachmann's district has a good amount of GOP voters just like Issa's district has a good amount of GOP voters!

            Tetalman ended up, because of his many years as a political activist, didn't think in funds but in ideas for campaigning.  He had a load of ideas, including a 100+ Car-A-Van event where many cars would line up one after the other with campaign signs and such driving along the highway and honking.  That costs almost $100-$200 (Tetalman for Congress signs and such).

            Here's a video to watch.  By the way, this video also includes Francine Busby, Jerry Tetalman's most vocal supporter.  You probably know who she is, right?  Yep, her energy was quite there in this video.

            Anyway, I know if the 2014 election were held today and if Jerry Tetalman ran again, he'd lose right away.

            The only way Tetalman will win is with early ground troops, intense voter registration, continuing process with engaging voters, social media outreach, etc.  Tetalman by the way is Internet savvy so he's gone everywhere to promote himself, even Reddit.  Later this month I'm touching base with as many CA-49 district voters as I can who have posts on Tetalman's Jerry for Congress 2012.  Let me tell you, Democrats who campaigned for Tetalman in 2012 REALLY want him to run again.

            Anyway, there's more data I can provide but since it's near 2 am in Berkeley, I need to call it a night as I have work to do for my MBA program and other outreach effort for my marketing association in San Francisco (I'm very involved in the marketing and tech industry).  Unlike most people on Kos and those who campaign, I actual lead a life as if I have four jobs.  I'm very tenacious.

            •  I'm going to draw this out (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Audrid, Daman09, SaoMagnifico
              He only got 30 some odd percent in his race against Orrin Hatch in 2006 who got 62%.  Now that's a deep red race in a deep red state (which at best could be moderate but it's not that moderate.
              And draw the parallel to Issa, who got 59% in 2012. The difference between 62% and 59% is 3%. Basic math suggests that these two are similar. You described the Hatch race as a "deep red race in a deep red state". Expropriating that language to this context supplies us with a "deep red race in a deep red district" (which even I think is too much, but you get my point).

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 01:51:24 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  My comparison is this (0+ / 0-)

                Red areas in Utah are different than red areas in California.

                Have you ever visited Utah?  I have because my mother's family is Mormon and dates back to the first settlers of Utah (includes the Hinchcliffs, Lindquists, etc.).  The state is mostly remote and the only big city is Salt Lake City, which has the most liberal base in Utah but not enough for all of Utah.  The rest of the state is so red man, even Pete Ashdown, the most progressive Utah Democrat there is, got booted off the Utah Democratic Convention over a very progressive speech he made.  The Utah Democratic Party is not that progressive and also not that friendly to Kos people although there are a number of Kos users in Utah.

                One thing you need to keep in mind is that voter registration has increased in San Diego county.  San Diego voter registration last season was heavily in favor for Democrats.  Go take a look for yourself.  I'm not talking about the CA-49 district (which includes part of San Diego County).  I'm talking about San Diego County at large.

                Also, Southern California is predominately (spelling?) Democratic and Darrell Issa's own district is sandwiched between Los Angeles and San Diego county at large, which is growing more democratic by the year.

                Also, in San Bernadino County, Obama won over Mitt Romney at least narrowly.  Not bad for a county that was once more in GOP territory.

                The CA Democratic Party endorsed Jerry Tetalman, by the way for the race.  Of course, why wouldn't they?  But hardly any support was given, unless you're talking Francine Busby, who ran in the same district three times (I think) against Brian Bilbray before Scott Peters finally beat Bilbray for re-election.  I think Busby knows Tetalman can beat Issa or has a good shot at it.  Perhaps Busby would be the best person to talk to on this since she's the Chairwoman of the San Diego Democratic Party.  Here's the link to contact her:

                http://www.sddemocrats.org/...

            •  this (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Audrid, SaoMagnifico
              Now the problem you should solve is, how can Jerry Tetalman win over 110,000 votes with only $99,000+ contributions?  Democrats can't get that simply because they're Democrats and voters see there's a Democrat on the ballot.  No one is going to vote for a candidate unless they're on the news or if say they've actually done the hard campaigning.  That's just the fact of life in politics.
              Is the worst and most tedious argument I've ever heard. The district as a whole is upscale, even the Democrats are middle class or upscale. These people vote for most of the top offices if they bother to vote at all (which they usually do). They don't "need" someone to campaign to them in a Presidential year, given that the Presidential campaigns are going to draw them to the polls anyway. I.E. the idea that Democrats can't get votes just because they are Democrats is ridiculous... Because that's exactly how Tetalman got his votes.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 01:54:11 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Upscale? (0+ / 0-)

                So what about the Marina District in San Francisco?  The Marina is more upscale than it used to be and has a lot of Democrats.  People in the Bay Area call them, "Limosine Democrats."

                There are upscale areas in Santa Monica and all throughout Hollywood, which is predominately Democratic.  I'm not exactly sure where you're going with this argument here.  Try visiting the Marina in San Francisco and you'll find it's quite Democratic (although there is a Republican base there yet more in Nob Hill and Inner Sunset districts).

            •  Again (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Audrid
              So in truth, a 41% - 24% ratio would be a bit on the deep red end if say you didn't include the DTS data.  DTS voters aren't Democratic by default but lean more Democratic these days due to the hyper partisan games the GOP plays and those turn off DTS voters.
              So, in other words, Republicans have to win much less than half of the Decline to States in order to win. That is super easy for them, given that Decline to States often mirror the overal partisan makeup of the district they reside in due to networking effects. The district is substantially Republican. Hell! There are more Independents here than there are Democrats. That isn't a recipe for success except for the most wide eyed crazies.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 01:56:23 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  It depends on how Independents think (0+ / 0-)

                Independents could go either way.  I'd say they were more paying attention to Obama than Tetalman because the Presidential election was more important.

                That's why the 2014 elections are very crucial because they're no longer just about Obama but about Congressional elections.

                And Barack Obama would be able to campaign all across the country.  If he campaigned in CA-49 district, there would be a REAL race, I can assure you that.

            •  More (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Audrid
              it would have been narrowly, just like Michelle Bachmann narrowly beat Jim Graves in her Congressional race in Minnesota.  So lots of people fight in Minnesota to beat Bachmann.  Where are those people in the CA-49 district?  Bachmann's district has a good amount of GOP voters just like Issa's district has a good amount of GOP voters!
              Bachmann's race was contested because she's truly crazy, whereas Issa is not. He's a popular incumbent in a moderately, but stably so, Republican district.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 01:57:32 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  That's why Democrats in CA-49 are scared of Issa (0+ / 0-)

                Darrell Issa is more intelligent than most GOP guys are.  He's not a dumbass.  I know Issa's history very well.  He spoke at the San Francisco Republican Party's Lincoln/Reagan Dinner.  This is probably the most important video anyone can see in understanding Issa.  It's long but important to understand Issa.  He's quite cunning but confident.  I mean, he's the richest man in Congress after all:

            •  Wow (5+ / 0-)
              Tetalman ended up, because of his many years as a political activist, didn't think in funds but in ideas for campaigning.  He had a load of ideas, including a 100+ Car-A-Van event where many cars would line up one after the other with campaign signs and such driving along the highway and honking.  That costs almost $100-$200 (Tetalman for Congress signs and such).
              Whoever orchestrated that should be blacklisted from campaigns for the forseeable future. That is literally the worst idea ever.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 01:58:22 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  He had low campaign funds (0+ / 0-)

                What's wrong with that idea?  It's called VISIBILITY.

                This kind of marketing is done all the time with street marketing but in a non-political aspect.

                •  Visibility by that method (4+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Audrid, SaoMagnifico, gabjoh

                  Is not a valuable use of campaign resources or time.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:24:53 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  If some group of volunteers (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, Audrid, SaoMagnifico, gabjoh

                    Wants to make themselves look like idiots doing something like this, feel free to tell them not to because having a candidate's name attached to such crazies in this type of district would hurt more than help.

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:25:51 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Hahahaha (0+ / 0-)

                      Let me ask you, do you have family from a deep red county?

                      Ogden, UT, where my mother is from, is HARD, REALLY HARD red.  So red you couldn't even have a socialist go in there and even speak.  No one listens.

                      On the other hand, there's not as much of that pressure in the CA-49 district although there are quite a lot of Republicans.  There's even the Camp Pendleton race.

                      Anyway, I have to go to bed.  I suggest you message me through Daily Kos's messaging system and we'll talk further. You're trying VERY hard to convince me but let me put it this way:

                      I'm not afraid of conservatives.  Heck, I used to be a Republican and conservative myself, when I was younger.  That's when I realized I had a heart.

                      •  is there a return to sender option? (5+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, Audrid, sacman701, gabjoh, jncca

                        I live in Texas. Ofcourse I have family in deep red places.

                        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                        by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:32:23 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Good to know (0+ / 0-)

                          I have people in Utah.  Utah is more red than Texas.

                          Why?  Less metropolitan cities (in fact, none), less Democrats.  End of story.

                          •  Utah statewide is more red than Texas statewide (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Audrid, MichaelNY

                            But that doesn't mean anything. I have family throughout the panhandle, which is literally the most Republican part of the country. It consistently votes Republican anywhere between 80-20 to 95-5 depending on whichever county you're talking about. Whereas Utah is pretty stably 70-30 outside of SLC.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:37:39 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Yeah but here's the thing (0+ / 0-)

                            Texas Democratic Party, from what I understand (and you can correct me if I'm wrong) is just starting the real activism base and I guess Julian Castro is helping out with this too.

                            The Utah Democratic Party, on the other hand, is a MESS.  You can't be progressive unless you're Rocky Anderson in Salt Lake City but he chickened out as if he was living in a Myanmmar, leaving the Democratic Party instead of going on Daily Kos.  Quite a Democrat, Rocky Anderson is.

                            Anyway, I think the case is closed since you live in Texas.  I live in California and I've been to the CA-49 district quite a number of times.  It's not red as in areas like your own state of Texas (like Louie Gohmert's district is).  I'm a Californian all the way.

                            Want to know the most red areas in California:

                            Bakersfield
                            Barstow
                            Mt. Shasta

                          •  ... (4+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Audrid, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, Skaje

                            You are so wrong. Just because I live in Texas and you don't does not mean that you can't have valuable things to add to a discussion about Texas (there are other reasons why I'd say that).

                            I never said that this district was the most red in the state. There are many that are moreso. The problem is that just because the 49th isn't the most Republican, it also has very stable voting patterns. And those voting patterns happen to also be Republican. This fact seems to have been lost on you.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:45:46 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Yeah, the fact that you live in a state (4+ / 0-)

                            is 100% absolute proof you are an expert on its politics, and if you don't live there, "case closed" that you are an ignoramus about its politics. That's apparently what you think. Nice logic there, buster.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 03:06:06 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  That isn't even close to true about Utah (4+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            wwmiv, HoosierD42, MichaelNY, gabjoh

                            The Utah Democratic Party fielded top-flight candidates in a whole slew of races last year. Those candidates lost because outside of Salt Lake City proper (and parts of Summit County), Utah is insanely red. That hasn't prevented their Democratic Party from being very well-organized and capable of lining up good candidates even if it's just for kamikaze runs.

                            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 10:24:47 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  I also have a cousin in Texas too (0+ / 0-)

                          He lives in Houston but that's a heavily Democratic city.

                        •  Return to Sender: (0+ / 0-)

                          It would be like moving a 54% Obama precinct from a 62% Obama district to a 50% Obama district, if you get what I mean.

                          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                          by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 03:10:43 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

            •  Video (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Audrid, SaoMagnifico

              On Tetalman's speech in the video:

              If he was emphasizing unions he was not going to win at all. This is the wrong district to emphasize that in. The district fundamentally requires a business friendly Democrat to even make it competitive, let alone win.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:00:43 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  You really don't know the CA-49 area. hahaha (0+ / 0-)

                There were Postal Unions all around San Diego and elsewhere who joined in this rally.  There's more union support in CA-49 than you think:

                I should note as a result of this video, Tetalman's campaign manager reported to me that Darrell Issa's legislative aide appeared at the Vista, CA headquarters to talk to the postal union representatives.  The talk from what I was told was not short and actually productive.

                •  Wow (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Audrid, SaoMagnifico

                  Obviously you don't know the district very well either, despite having posted the partisan statistics above. Republicans are generally anti-union. Republicans are 41% of the district. They only have to win 1/4 of the independent bloc to win the district (and that isn't even taking into consideration turnout disparities between Democrats and Republicans). It doesn't matter how many union people (who are all Democrats) there are that come to these events, they still don't outnumber the Republicans.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:28:39 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Of course the GOP is anti-union (0+ / 0-)

                    What more can you expect?

                    One more chance:  Contact Francine Busby.

                    http://www.sddemocrats.org/...

                    •  You are such a happy person (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Audrid, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

                      and also persistent! It must be true what they say...

                      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                      by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:38:30 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I'm from Berkeley (0+ / 0-)

                        That's where Markos lives and I've lived here longer than anyone at Daily Kos.  I also know SNL's Andy Samberg a bit as he attended my same high school in Berkeley.  

                        I've also got folks up in New Jersey and I've got Russian foots in my father's family.  They say if you're Russian, you're pretty tough.  Russians are tough people, not the nicest people in the world but they are nice when you talk to them if say you are open-minded.

                        So bottom line:  I'm a tough guy but I'm not partisan.  I mean, I post on Issa all the time and unlike others on Kos, I actually point out about Issa's one good trait:  He's knowledgeable about IT.  In fact, Issa's the most vocal person on IT reform in government in Congress and I'd love to support his efforts there because I believe the EDD (Employment Development Department) needs to be reformed.

                        •  In other words (3+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          Audrid, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

                          Issa appeals across party lines on certain issues (surprisingly), making him more difficult to defeat.

                          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                          by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:50:01 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Tetalman knows Issa better than you think (0+ / 0-)

                            Tetalman and Issa are both from the same communities in Ohio, the Cleveland areas that is.  Both Midwestern guys.  I actually asked Tetalman if he knew Issa growing up and he said no.  However, Tetalman has Midwestern values like Issa.

                            However, Issa is more vulnerable now because of his Hurricane Sandy and Fiscal Cliff votes.  I think Issa's support is dropping.  He's going to have a hard time explaining to constituents why he voted the way he did on the Hurricane Sandy bills.

                            But those Tea Party people are also in CA-49.  Damn them.

                          •  ... (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

                            One low profile roll call vote or two isn't going to doom Issa. That's a crazy assertion.

                            You said you were a Republican once? What made you leave? You seem to fit in with the Tea Party types in certain ways.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:57:50 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Anyway, I need to sleep (0+ / 0-)

                            It's 3 am here.  Good chatting with you, even as contentious as it is.  I'm always up for a good debate.  I'm pretty tenacious but that's because I work in marketing.  We're all about campaigns and sales.

                            You can message me on Kos anytime.

                          •  I'd say you should (4+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Audrid, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, jncca

                            But it seems you're already dreaming, so...

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 03:03:30 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  I'm from Manhattan (3+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          wwmiv, BeloitDem, sacman701

                          So I must be an expert on politics in Sussex County, New Jersey, since it's only about 60 miles away. And they just couldn't be as conservative as they are. It's a pure coincidence that they keep electing Representative Scott Garrett. Surely, they're all really closet liberals there.

                          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                          by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 03:09:20 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Hey, now... (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            wwmiv, MichaelNY

                            NJ-05 is a Totally Legitimate Pickup Opportunity!

                            (Honestly, I could go on and on about it like this guy does for Issa's district, because I do think it's a legit longshot opportunity. But we did kind of get screwed by them taking the bluest parts of Sussex and Warren out in redistricting.)

                            Vaccinate your child. Vaccinate yourself. | Pro-transit, pro-gun, anti-NRA young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

                            by gabjoh on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 09:26:31 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  It's at the edge of legitimate (0+ / 0-)

                            but not on account of Sussex County, whatever the bluest parts of it are; am I right?

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 10:04:11 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Yeah, but taking out the blue parts (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            of the red counties hampers the idea of getting a Democrat from that area (presumably with crossover appeal) to run.

                            (Although I do think we may have our candidate in Jason Castle, who lost in the primary in 2012: the path would probably be his doing Better Than Expected in 2014 and then on the radar for 2016.)

                            Vaccinate your child. Vaccinate yourself. | Pro-transit, pro-gun, anti-NRA young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

                            by gabjoh on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 08:48:36 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

            •  He cannot win (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Audrid
              The only way Tetalman will win is with early ground troops, intense voter registration, continuing process with engaging voters, social media outreach, etc.  Tetalman by the way is Internet savvy so he's gone everywhere to promote himself, even Reddit.  Later this month I'm touching base with as many CA-49 district voters as I can who have posts on Tetalman's Jerry for Congress 2012.  Let me tell you, Democrats who campaigned for Tetalman in 2012 REALLY want him to run again
              This is so wrong on so many levels. He cannot win. He is not the right candidate for this district. If he runs again he will only embarrass himself further.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:02:09 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  So select another candidate (0+ / 0-)

                The CA-49 district is waiting for your decision sir.

                In the meantime, I'm going to continue to reach out to folks in the CA-49 area about the activism.  I'm not even pushing Tetalman to run.  In fact, he'd be better as a campaign manager or motivator.  I think Tetalman was tired from campaigning in 2012.

                •  Oh no (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, Audrid, SaoMagnifico

                  Tetalman would be worse as the manager if it was truly his idea to have a modified honk and wave.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:29:44 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Hahaha. (0+ / 0-)

                    Go give Francine Busby an e-mail or ring.  That's the best bet you have at this point if you want more insight.  You can continue to get pessimistic and skeptical or you can talk to Francine Busby.  San Diego Democratic Party's website is as follows:

                    http://www.sddemocrats.org/...

                    Your call man.  Right now though, this is February 2013 and the clock is ticking for voter registration.  It's early, yes, but register voters.

                    REGISTER REGISTER REGISTER REGISTER REGISTER

                    •  ... (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Audrid, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

                      If she thinks this race is winnable, she shouldn't be county chair.

                      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                      by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:34:49 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  She might have thought Tetalman had a chance (0+ / 0-)

                        I mean, Busby ran more than once and lost every time.   Your arguments are so premature given what Busby had to go through herself in running against Brian Busby.

                        Tetalman's only ran ONCE.  Hahaha.

                        Keep trying.  I'm still waiting for that one big argument.  ;)

                        •  And hopefully it will be the only time he runs (3+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          Audrid, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

                          Because if we want to win this district, it cant be with a one world order type whacko.

                          Sometimes the nicest people in the world are crazy, doesn't mean that they aren't also whacko.

                          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                          by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:42:15 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  It's about the message (0+ / 0-)

                            You should cut Tetalman some slack though because this is the first campaign he ran.  Anyone can run again.  If Tetalman runs, fine but I'd advice him to approach it as a "less is more" than more of the content he's shown in his "One World Democracy" book.

                            Let me tell you though, Tetalman is VERY knowledgeable and would make a real asset to the Democratic Party.  I actually called him in October to interview him.  Let me tell you, if you talked to him, you would be surprised at how different he is.  He's actually more what people on Kos want:  100% progressive.  He even fights for issues that no other people on Kos fight for, such as being against NDAA, against prison privatization and is a MAJOR pro-environment advocate.  He'd actually fit well in the House Committee that focuses on Energy and Science.  He's knowledgeable like Steven Chu (U.S. Energy Secretary), who by the way used to be the Director at Lawrence Berkeley Labs back in Berkeley (I live a few miles away from there by the way).

                            On the other hand, this girl was very moved and affected by the "One World Democracy" book:

                          •  Wow (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico, jncca

                            But you see... the problem is not really that Tetalman is progressive per se, but that Tetalman is running for a district that is decidedly anti-progressive.

                            That said, if he ran for the Berkley seat, I wouldn't consider voting for him because he's crazy and there are better, more intelligent, more interesting, more not whacko progressives than Tetalman. He wants a single one world order. There is no way you can spin that as electable. Anywhere. A Republican could defeat him in a D+10 seat, for heaven's sake. If people in CA-49 knew that he wanted a one-world government, he probably would have got less than the 41% that he received in November. Thank God he didn't have money to spread his message and besmirch the good name of the Democratic Party.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 03:02:06 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  This x100 (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            It's just not a viable political position.

                            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                            by SaoMagnifico on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 01:54:10 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

              •  Tetalman could win 2 districts in the state (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                wwmiv, MichaelNY

                The SF district and the Oakland/Berkeley district. Everywhere else, he would lose either to a Republican or a more mainstream Dem.

                SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                by sacman701 on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:17:29 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Do we know that you're not Tetalman... (7+ / 0-)

              Just saying...

              26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

              by okiedem on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 06:54:36 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  or why is he or she (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, Jacques Kallis, gabjoh

                   so obsessed with this one House race? It is a tough district with an incumbent who is not only well-known but is also wealthy, so Issa could self-fund if he needs it to win.  Put it all together and it is an unwinnable district for the Democratic team under normal circumstances.

                      Pipsorcle should find some other House races to get involved in.  Maybe to support a strong candidate in CA-31 so we don't end up with Gary Miller again. How about CA-25? That's another difficult district but the Santa Clarita and Antelope Valleys are moving in our direction. There are also some districts in the Central Valley that might be winnable such as CA-21 where Valadeo is a freshman GOP Rep.  There have to be at least a half dozen GOP held House seats in CA that are more likely to flip to Dem than CA-49.

                Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

                by Zack from the SFV on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 06:04:04 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  A very interesting discussion between (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv, MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

      pipsorcle and wwmiv.

      I found your conversation very enlightening and fun to read. I don't know much about Darrell Issa or Jerry Tetalman, but I think that by the end of the decade the district might be ours.

      I'm of two minds on CA-49. I'm not sure the demographics are there (there are only two whiter Republican-held districts in California). And Romney improved by more than the national average in the district. The Obama versus generic Democrat drop-off is especially steep in the areas Obama won in San Diego, which would form the core of a hypothetical Democratic victory. On the other hand, this was one of Obama's best-performing SoCal Republican districts. There's potential for a really good campaign.

      All in all, it's extremely frustrating to see Republicans consistently win places like these which look so good on paper.

      http://mypolitikal.com/

      by Inoljt on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 03:29:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  IA-03 (0+ / 0-)

    I am hoping a female candidate runs so we can defeat the stigma of Iowans being ant-woman because we haven't sent one to Congress.  

    •  Who do you think might run? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I'll admit to not knowing much about the Iowa legislature. Another way I could see this happening would be Liz Mathis in IA-1.

      •  Couple of possibilities (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

        Susan Judkins Jostens would be a great candidate for IA-3 in my view.  She ran for the state legislature and lost by 23 votes to an incumbent.

        There are a lot of women who are members of the West Des Moines Chamber of Commerce who would probably like to run in IA-3, but I can't mention their names.  

        Liz Mathis in IA-1 would be fine.  I would prefer Anesa Kajtazovic to Mathis.  Anesa has a better grasp on policy and worked very hard to get Braley re-elected

        •  I don't want someone who hasn't held elected (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          office to run unless we can't find a good State Senator.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 03:36:19 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Lizard People, Ant Women only in the Midwest (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 01:49:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  off the top of my head (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      - Sheriff McCarthy
      - DA Sarcone
      - Senator Mike Gronstal
      - Senator Jack Hatch

      You could also throw in senator McCoy, but the past dems here (Smith and Boswell) were blue dogs and he is pretty far to the left.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 07:12:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  NE Lt. Gov Rick Sheehy resigns (14+ / 0-)

    He was making late night phone calls to women, who werent his wife, on state issued cell phones.

    He was a leading candidate for governor in 2014. The current governor, Dave Heineman, was supporting him. No word on whether Sheehy will drop the gov bid, but Heineman says he doesnt see how he continues, and he wont support Sheehy now.

    link.

    •  I definitely don't think he'll continue (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

      and this really opens up an opportunity for us.  It'll still be tough, but less tough than if Sheehy were the nominee.

      Republican State Senator Charlie Janssen has been considering a bid and I don't doubt this will only push him towards going for it.  I like our odds much better when it's State Senator vs State Senator more than State Senator vs Lt Gov.

      27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

      by JDJase on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 11:32:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  So all that being said though (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, gabjoh, jj32

      I think this "scandal" is pretty stupid.  He and his wife announced their divorce back in July, and now he's been callin some ladies.  On state phones, yes, but still, I don't think it's that big of deal.  But, I guess that's what makes for a major scandal in Nebraska lol

      27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

      by JDJase on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 12:25:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I take this back (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        now that more details have emerged, I now agree Sheehy is a total skeez.  Basically he's been carrying on affairs with 4 different women for the past 4 years, 2 of those women being elected officials themselves (one a school board president and one a Bellevue city council member).  Yep...

        27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

        by JDJase on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 09:31:18 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Weird political dreams (11+ / 0-)

    I had a dream about Chuck Hagel last night (no, not that kind of dream) where Hagel was being blocked by a coalition of Republicans with personal vendettas against him and progressive Democrats. President Obama was considering nominating Michèle Flournoy instead, but in this dream Flournoy a was torture-supporting neocon, and I was sent in a Hail Mary pass to convince the Democrats opposing Hagel to back down.

    So I go into a meeting with Schumer and Durbin, who are the rouge Democrats' ring leaders, and Schumer is an obnoxious partisan who only cares that no cabinet posts go to Republicans, and Durbin was upset because HE wanted to be Secretary of Defense. So Schumer spends the entire meeting ignoring me and posting to his blog about how great he is and how he's successfully blocking Hagel, and Durbin is a sad sack who starts crying into a napkin about how much he hates his job in the Senate.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 09:38:16 AM PST

    •  LOL (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      British guy with a big interest in US politics; -1.88, -4.05. A liberal, a moderate and a conservative walk into a bar. The bartender says "Hey Mitt".

      by General Goose on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 10:12:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Political Dream (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Yesterday morning, I was working on something in the corner of a library and I dozed off. I dreamt that President Obama was in Wisconsin for some reason, and he was making a national address outside from a platform from the back of the school bus (I don't get it either). There was a small tornado coming from behind, and no one had the sense to tell him that a tornado was coming. It passed just to his left and barely missed him. After he noticed that the tornado had just missed him, he had this expression on his face. After that, I woke up.

      The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

      by AndySonSon on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 10:45:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Not WHAT kind of dream :-)? n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits
    •  this morning I dreamed that there was big news (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      we were all talking about here on the blog.  I usually have fairly mundane dreams.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 12:30:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I was redistricting NC before going to sleep (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

      and dreamt about having a class in a mysterious, hard to find building named Yancey, which I now realize was named for the NC county.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 03:38:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Markey website evolved further: (8+ / 0-)

    http://www.edmarkey.com/
    Each time you refresh, you get a new background photo.  They had better be making one damn good website meanwhile.

    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

    by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 10:34:43 AM PST

  •  how often do situations like these occur (0+ / 0-)

    meaning coming from an ultraconservative family and having one of the children repudiating it all
    http://www.youtube.com/...

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 12:31:23 PM PST

  •  WATN: Bob Etheridge loses race for NC Dem chair (6+ / 0-)

    It has not been a good few years for Bob Etheridge.  Things didn't get any better today when he narrowly lost the race to replace embattled chair David Parker.  The new state chair is Pittsboro Mayor Randy Voller.  

    23, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-01 (college).

    by Jeff Singer on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 12:40:09 PM PST

  •  Question regarding 112th and 113th Dems (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Are there any of the new Dem House members who weren't in Congress to vote on the 2010 Health Care Reform bill who say they would have voted against it or have voted for the repeal bills? I can't think of anyone offhand.

  •  MA-SEN: Another Dem jumping in the race? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, betelgeux, MichaelNY

    Middlesex District Attorney Gary Leone says he is thinking of entering the race.

    Obviously, with Brown out, the Dem primary becomes the main attraction here, and is probably going to attract more Dems.

    My only worry is the vote splits and we end up with Lynch as the nominee.

    link.

  •  Ed Markey is launching his campaign today... (3+ / 0-)

    and he has a new website up! Yay! Except...it's still just a splash page. It's a fancy splash page with some pretty background images, but it's still just a splash page.

    I really hope Markey doesn't turn out to be a Coakley redux.

    Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

    by betelgeux on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 02:31:47 PM PST

  •  Weekend Music (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, sacman701

    The Band--King Harvest Has Surely Come (1969)
    This song is like musical Steinbeck--it beautifully captures the struggles and hardships of the working class. Although it takes place in the American Midwest during the rise of Sharecropper's Unions, the song's story could apply to any downtrodden, poverty-stricken worker throughout history. Every time I listen to it, I'm reminded that the struggles of the common man are universal. The lyrics themselves are heart wrenching--you can hear the farmer's desperation, and the hope he has placed in the union. But despite that hopefulness and optimism, by the song's end you can picture the strikebreakers with their horses and batons, ready to crush the hopes of the poor and downtrodden once again.

    The Band--The Shape I'm In (1970)
    I love the way guitarist Robbie Robertson lays off on the guitar licks and lets keyboardists Garth Hudson (on organ) and Richard Manuel (on clavinet) jam in the song's outro.

    The Band--Stage Fright (1970)
    The best song about performing, hands down.

    Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

    by betelgeux on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 02:57:04 PM PST

  •  Indiana gay marriage (7+ / 0-)

    Republicans have been trying since before the original boom of gay marriage ballot questions to get a constitutional ban here. Thankfully former House Speaker Bauer, despite voting in favor last year, never allowed it to come up for a vote during his tenure. In order for an amendment to occur in Indiana it must be passed by two separately elected general assemblies before getting majority support by a public referendum.

    Republican passed the ban last session and it seemed it was all but certain to pass this session as well. That has not been the case. There has been real hesitance among House Leadership. In particular I have heard rumors Speaker Bosma would like to just forget about it and focus on his ambitious agenda. Many other prominent business orientated R's have also expressed hesitance. Eli Lilly, one of the largest employers in the state, has came out very strongly against the amendment and they aren't the only ones.

    Some have also wanted to wait until SCOTUS rules on the matter this year. Bosma has said a decision will be made by next week regarding the vote. My guess is it gets delayed as even some of the most socially conservative members wants to see how SCOTUS plays out.

    Another reason is they simply do not know whether or not the measure would pass statewide. Polling has varied. The most recent showed it trailing 17 (!!!) points. The other two polls I'm aware of had it down four and up three. With evolving views taking place at a fast speed you never know, but I think it would tilt in the anti-equality side as polling seems to be optimistic early on before changing.

    I will say it is lucky the Dems held control during most of this period as it would have passed through all hurdles without a fight had Republicans been in control. If it does pass I think we do have a shot at the ballot box since views have changed drastically since 2005.

    This link has some of the reactions of lawmakers on the issue.
    http://www.courierpress.com/...

    Also another interesting story is that the Mayor of Bloomington, who is the former House Majority Leader that lobbied that the ban not happen back in the day, recently presided over a symbolic mass gay marriage.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    •  Do you think that Shelli Yoder (0+ / 0-)

      participating in the ceremony in Bloomington is a signal that she is not running for IN-09 in 2014?

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:36:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  She's running for reelection (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        to the Monroe County Council.

        20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

        by ndrwmls10 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:38:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yep, already announced. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          As for future political ambitions I wouldn't take this as a sign for anything other than she supports SSM though.

        •  I thought she was seeking an appointment (0+ / 0-)

          That she already received?

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 10:36:31 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh never mind (0+ / 0-)

            I get what you were saying now.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 10:37:05 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  She was appointed and has said she (0+ / 0-)

            will run for a full term in 2014.

            20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

            by ndrwmls10 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 10:38:13 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Maybe she (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Realizes that she can only win in a pres year?

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 10:48:37 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  It's possible. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                If Dan Coats retires, it's almost a certainty that Todd Young will run. It could mean the return of Mike Sodrel. Young's an ass, but he can hide it. Sodrel is incapable.

                20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                by ndrwmls10 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 10:55:29 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  The circumstance you describe (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  is not out of question. And lets be honest, even if Sodrel doesn't run or win the nod we have plenty of tea available and the Republicans here are very conservative. Get a libertarian on the  ballot next time and push her percentage up three points and she wins.

                  •  And if Clinton's are nominee, even better! (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    drhoosierdem, MichaelNY

                    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                    by ndrwmls10 on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 08:04:10 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  And a lot of the Democrats in IN-09 (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    are very conservative too! With Shelli out of the picture in 2014, it leaves our bench pretty thin. Would not surprise me if our nominee ends up being Tilford.

                    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                    by SouthernINDem on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 09:29:26 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Certainly possible. (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      Winningham is back in Texas (Surprise surprise) and George seems pretty much done. Other options include Vi Simpson, Sandy Blanton, Peggy Welch (barf) or some wealthy attorney. I guess we could take someone from Bloomington, they certainly have a plethora of elected dems who could build a profile from a run.

                      •  I would like to get someone with a solid (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        base in Floyd and Clark counties that would be willing to run, but as of now, I don't see anyone stepping up the plate to do so. I will look and see if anyone is making the rounds at the next 9th district meeting, but I think a lot of people were really hoping Shelli would run again, so they will be glad to see her in office in Bloomington, but sad she won't be running in 2014. I just hope that Democrats are able to stage a comeback in Harrison and Clark counties. The number of losses on our side there are getting out of hand.

                        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                        by SouthernINDem on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 10:45:12 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Both the Sheriffs in Clark and Floyd are term (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY, bumiputera

                          limited. They could be good gets. The one in Floyd, Mills I think his name is, seemed pretty personable when I met him before.

                          •  And our state legislative delegations in the 8th (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            drhoosierdem, MichaelNY

                            and 9th districts have been decimated in 2010 and 2012 (and we even suffered losses in 2008) which have cut down our benches. I don't see Mills or Danny Rodden in Clark County running for Congress. I could see one of them possibly trying to get back one our Senate seats we lost though. Richard Young is running for re-election, so he is out too. Sadly, I don't think Todd Young gets a strong challenge in 2014. It also seems that Dems in Clark, Floyd and Harrison will be working much more on rebuilding after the losses in 2010 and 2012. All counties will have elections for new chairs in early March. I expect marquee races in each county for Prosecutor, for Sheriff in Floyd and Clark, and Dems working to win back County Councils in each county. I just hope that at least in Harrison, that things are not to the point that we can no longer win races, but if things turn around, I think we should win a few races back in 2014 here.

                            "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                            by SouthernINDem on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 12:02:28 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                      •  Vi Simpson is too old. (0+ / 0-)

                        To be honest, I think she was using the LG nomination as a backdoor retirement.

                        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                        by HoosierD42 on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 04:03:08 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  On another note, (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          I always thought that when Dems redrew IN-08, that it was drawn for John Gregg. Shocked me when he declined to run there in 2002, and in subsequent elections.

                          Also, whoever the next state chair is has to be better than the Parker regime. The failure of the state party to get fully behind John Gregg early proved fatal in the end. Gregg came on strong in the end, but letting Pence go unanswered on television for so many months took its toll.

                          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                          by SouthernINDem on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 04:39:15 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  The state party, DGA (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Audrid, MichaelNY

                            And to be honest a lack of political competitiveness nationally. I don't fault the Obama campaign for writing off Indiana necessarily, but if they'd made even the basest campaign stops to drive up turnout Gregg could have won. Mullen too.

                            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                            by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:04:41 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

  •  More MA-SEN: Richard Tisei not running (9+ / 0-)

    link.

    Looking more likely that Kerry Healey will be the nominee.

    •  Good, another one down. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      And Kerry Healey?  Really?  Are they not even trying anymore?

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 04:55:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think Tisei (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, LordMike, MichaelNY

      Would have been the only Republican that could have made the special general interesting outside of Brown. Weld? Come on, why would Republicans want their own Bob Kerrey issues?

      Age 25, Republican, WA-03 (represented by wonderful Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler), getting married in June :)

      by KyleinWA on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 05:30:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KyleinWA, LordMike, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

        Tisei vs. Lynch would have been an interesting race. A socially liberal, openly gay Republican against a conservative Democrat.

      •  Tisei had zero chance (7+ / 0-)

        His epic crash against John Tierney is something he'll never live down.  He'd be a complete joke in the Senate race, worse than any no-name.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 05:54:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Tierney won by less than 4,000 votes (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          that's not an epic crash.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 05:58:18 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Still a loss. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, MichaelNY

            In the least Dem district in the state against a heavily hurt incumbent (who had in-laws that were eager to backstab him) who withdrew from the airwaves at the end to focus on ground work.  A Republican who outraised him, had everyone banking on him winning, only to lose.

            "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

            by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 06:02:21 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  sure, but that's the least Democratic district (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              in Massachusetts.  I'm not arguing that he would have a good chance of winning, just that it wasn't such a horrible loss.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 06:04:43 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  He was supposed to lose big (4+ / 0-)

            Tierney cancelled his own ad buys the final weeks!  No one does that except as a concession of defeat!

            That should've been pretty telling.

            All the analysts, Cook/Rothenberg/etc., wrote off Tierney toward the end, it was an assumed GOP pickup.

            His win was a shocker.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 07:35:58 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  that doesn't make it any more than a (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              <4000 vote win.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 07:51:05 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  It means he'll do much worse in a tougher race (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, MichaelNY

                You blow what should've been a sure win, as someone with no record of winning anything in the first place, you're going to get creamed in a race that's tough at the outset.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:13:34 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  and again I'm not arguing with that (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  to quote myself:

                  I'm not arguing that he would have a good chance of winning, just that it wasn't such a horrible loss.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:43:16 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  Jim Renacci canceling his ad buys (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Ended up seeming like a position of strength.

              24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

              by HoosierD42 on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:12:43 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Renacci didn't cancel (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                wwmiv, HoosierD42, jncca, MichaelNY

                He just changed his ad buys.  He was never actually off the air, there was just some misleading reporting about it.  I think he might've cancelled broadcast and went more with cable, or something like that.  That's really not the same at all as Tierney, who was reported to have cancelled altogether.

                You don't cancel outright in a tossup race unless you're either broke which Tierney wasn't, or you think you're toast.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:15:38 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  It's the fact that everyone expected Tisei to win (5+ / 0-)

            and to win big.  Tisei released an internal showing him up 47-35 on the incumbent congressman.  The pundits were slotting this at lean GOP or even strong GOP.  We all bought into it and were grudgingly admitting that Tisei was favored.

            That Tisei lost was a shocker, up there with Matheson surviving despite GOP triumphalism in that race as well.

            In any case, we're arguing very subjective terms here.  I've made the case for how Tisei did "poorly".  But it could also be said that coming close to knocking off an incumbent Dem in Massachusetts is doing "well".  If expectations hadn't been raised so high, people would be commending Tisei for coming so close in such a difficult district for Republicans.

        •  I don't think Tisei is quite *that* damaged (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          His celebrating at the 10-yard line by running that stupid beach ad ended up being pretty embarrassing, but he was still a Republican running in a mid-50s Obama district. The only Republican in a comparable district is Gary Miller, and we all know his story.

          I think Tisei would still be a legitimate candidate, and do better than the Some Dudes that are being mentioned, and if he were to run for Governor, he'd probably do even better, maybe having a shot at winning.

          •  Illinoyedr said that ad wasn't actually aired (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            it was just some joke ad by his staff.

            "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

            by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 06:53:42 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  But yes, he did do a 10 yard dance (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Benjamin Disraeli said Tisei had a relatively barren ground team the past couple weeks and the Log Cabin volunteers were focusing on Boston, which is not in the 6th.  Meanwhile, Tierney was trying to remind people of the good stuff he's done.

              "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

              by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 06:57:18 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  Is Avi Nelson still around? (0+ / 0-)

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:22:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Illinois Same Sex Marriage (16+ / 0-)

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 04:47:43 PM PST

  •  MA-Sen: Some want Ann Romney to run? lol! (10+ / 0-)

    http://bostonherald.com/...
    Knowing her, she would probably curl up like a ball under media scrutiny and lash out at them for prying.
    More from the Herald (sorry, but that's where the gossip is):

    Without someone such as Ann Romney, most Republicans agree the strongest candidate would be former Gov. William F. Weld, who just moved back to Massachusetts and hasn’t ruled out another run for office. Weld did not return messages, but sources close to him said he has “no interest” in running.

    Former Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey was also being touted as a candidate, but sources said she also is unlikely to get in the race. Former state Sen. Richard Tisei, who narrowly lost a race for Congress in November, said he’s taking the weekend to consider running but said he has been more focused on another congressional bid.

    “Scott caught everybody by surprise,” Tisei said.

    Tisei just declined of course.

    "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

    by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 05:12:19 PM PST

  •  Suppose we have some power (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    next time redistricting comes about in Arkansas, probably on account of holding the governor's office through 2020.  No compromise is made on house maps, and it goes to court.  Civil rights groups argue that because of the significant change in recent years towards far more racially polarized voting in the state, all of the most densely African American counties in the state (Pulaski, Jefferson, Lincoln, Dallas, Ouachita, Columbia, Union, Ashley, Chicot, Desha, Phillips, Monroe, Lee, Crittenden, & St. Francis counties) should be put in one district.  Such a district would not be anywhere near majority black, but around 37% by voting age population, 40% by total population.  However, in 2008 this district voted slightly more for Obama than the nation as a whole, with I think about 54%, and he got about 54% in 2012 there.  Blanche Lincoln got about 53.4%, nearly 16.5 points better than she did statewide.  I suppose it would be contingent on those areas still leaning Dem and voting cohesively, and the rest of the state continuing the recent trend of being strongly Republican at the federal level.  How strong is that argument to you?

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 05:48:34 PM PST

    •  This was my option before the 2012 redistricting (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      Then many people see not it, but it was a good option, the best option.

      Now it is too late for me. Unfortunately.

      •  as GradyDem pointed out (0+ / 0-)

        the Dems at the time never would've gone for it.  But I'm assuming circumstances will not be anything like what they were in 2010.  There'll be no Democratic congressional incumbents we would be trying to protect, for one, and Democratic ancestral strength in the whiter areas will have dramatically declined as it has in the last few years.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:57:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The trouble for 2020 is that the Democratic side (3+ / 0-)

          likely will not control the process. The Republicans have a Republican Gerrymander done by Democrats, and they will be happy with a minimum changes map.

          To win the trifecta again in Arkansas in 2020 is very unlikely.

          •  Yes, and my assumption was that we wouldn't (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, gabjoh

            and at most hold the governorship.  But regardless, as I realized after posting my comment, for a suit to occur doesn't depend on who controls the process.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 09:01:20 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Not (0+ / 0-)

      I'm not sure that you could force it in a court.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 01:41:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  force it, no (0+ / 0-)

        but I think most of the components for mandating a district are there, and a court would need to be persuaded that they were enough.  Winning would probably necessitate having more Obama-appointed judges, though.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 09:03:27 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  alas, Art Robinson didn't get elected chair (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Audrid

    of the Oregon Republican Party.  Suzanne Gallagher did.  She promises not to compromise any of the party's principles, and says she can revive the state party with better marketing and fundraising.  Sure.

    She has a proven record of success in her two losing state legislative candidacies, the latest getting about 30% of the vote in the general election for a D+20 or so state senate district last fall.  She had yard signs everywhere, though.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 07:58:02 PM PST

  •  Super Bowl picks, anyone? (Go Ravens!) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mike in MD

    I'm making purple-yellow jello shots at the moment.

    Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-07.

    by jeffmd on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:13:39 PM PST

    •  Alicia Keys and Beyonce (0+ / 0-)

      I don't care about the actual game. And I'm surprised you, as a member of the club, do!

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:16:23 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hey, I'm making color-coded... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv

        jello shots. Isn't that enough? ;)

        I think of sports a lot like electoral politics. Fantasy football...and the number of statistics that that generates weekly...is dangerous for me.

        Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-07.

        by jeffmd on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:34:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  49ers by a field goal n/t (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades
    •  No predictions... (0+ / 0-)

      I wish that the earth opens up and swallows both teams whole, so that we never have to hear about Bill "I could hack my first job and drove the team out of town" Belicheck, nor the stolen "Ravens" who finished the job.

      It is the Super Bowl of evil.this year.  Yuck!

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 09:17:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I was inclined to root for the 49ers (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv

      since the Ravens beat the Pats.

      but the gay rights issue is making me reconsider...

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 12:27:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  This is a big Super Bowl of meh for me (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh

        Despite being in NorCal, I'm not a Niners fan.  I ABSOLUTELY HATE Randy Moss, so that's one strike.  Then the anti-gay stuff is strike two.  I like Baltimore as a team, but Ray Lewis's past makes it tough to root for him team.  So I don't really care much.  Just glad it's not New England.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 01:54:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I was raised with only two sports (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      redrelic17

      basketball and baseball.  And mainly baseball.  I'll watch a Ducks game but otherwise don't care about football.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 09:06:18 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm obligated as a Maryland alumnus... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jeffmd

      To root for the Ravens. But I doubt I'll be watching. Might have it on in the background.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 10:15:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Sup: Pridemore goes full gun nut (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, WisJohn

    Don Pridemore, the de facto Republican candidate in the officially non-partisan WI-Sup race, went full gun nut:

    Dear Editor: School boards should be given the freedom to hire a competent, well trained school official or employee who is experienced with applying force whenever force is required. Police officers, either retired or still on duty, that are trained to respond to school safety situations are the best example of such a qualified person.

    The most cost-effective approach would be to permit local school boards, administrators and parents to be able to ask qualified people from their own communities to volunteer to do this work as a public service as a way of giving to their communities while they are in retirement. The point is that each school district is different as well as each community. The availability of qualified people will be different but the rules and the criteria established for choosing this “safety officer or protection service” should rest in the hands of the local community and not with the Department of Public Instruction or any other level of government.

    DPI can certainly make recommendations on how to proceed but the final decision should be made by the local officials and must be a priority in today’s world.

    — Rep. Don Pridemore. R-Erin, and candidate for state superintendent of public instruction

    Don Pridemore is a danger to the people of the State of Wisconsin for suggesting that local school boards should recruit volunteers to shoot people.

    Pridemore's opponent is incumbent State Superintendent (and de facto Democrat) Tony Evers.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:31:34 PM PST

    •  When is the election? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:40:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  April 2 of this year (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Same time as the WI-SC election

        Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

        by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:46:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Things looking promising for Dems in one or both? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

          by KingofSpades on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:57:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  In the WI-Sup race, yes (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, Audrid, MichaelNY, WisJohn

            Charlie Sykes, a notorious right-wing shock jock in Wisconsin, predicted a few months ago that Pridemore would only get 32% of the vote against Evers in the WI-Sup race. James "Wiggy" Wigderson, a prominent Wisconsin conservative blogger, wrote this piece bashing Pridemore

            The WI-SC race (also technically non-partisan) looked to be a near-lock for Patience Roggensack, the de facto Republican incumbent, as she had several factors going for her: she's an incumbent in a state supreme court race in Wisconsin, and she was the only one of the four conservative justices who DIDN'T have any serious ethical issues. Now, she has a serious ethical issue surrounding $20,550 in campaign cash she failed to report. Roggensack will face either Ed Fallone or Vince Megna, both of which are de facto Democrats. Even if Roggensack gets 50%+1 of the vote in the non-partisan primary, the top two in the primary will advance to the general election.

            Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

            by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 09:18:26 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I'm much more optimistic about this race (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, WisJohn, MichaelNY

            Than the supreme court race. Although we do have a decent candidate for the Supreme Court race in Ed Fallone, Roggensack may have to fuck up for us to win that one.

  •  More on my Texas with 39 seats map (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, GradyDem

    as Democrats would draw it. This is the Metroplex. I have two converted Democratic seats in Dallas County. Jeb Hensarling, Kenny Marchant and Pete Sessions would all compete for District 32, or hope they could move north up the North Central Expressway and hope Sam Johnson retired. District 24 should elect a Hispanic Dem, while District 5 could be any Democrat. Since I expect Kay Granger would run in my District 12 (she is originally from North Richland Hills), I would expect Rep. Roger Williams to in the new District 39. However, I would note that Rockwall, Collin and Denton counties (and to a lesser degree Tarrant) are far exceeding population growth of the state and metroplex, would likely see more a shift of seats to those counties in 2020 redistricting. But, here is my map off the current numbers:
     photo Texas-Metroplex_zps1b59c0ab.jpg

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:31:52 PM PST

  •  Chris Hughes and Sean Eldridge (0+ / 0-)

    Let's play "which is the top and which is the bottom"!

    Hughes is on the left, Eldridge on the right.

    Neither is truly effeminate, but both are borderline as a quick perusal of youtube makes clear to me. My guess is that Eldridge is the top given the relative body language of the two in video, though his voice is higher pitched. Maybe they're vers?

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    I wonder how this would affect his numbers, given that we've never had a moderately effeminate gay man, let alone full blown gay man, run for high level and competitive office. Even Sean Maloney, who looks it, doesn't come across as gay at all:

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    Eldridge, should he run, might end up being my favorite candidate of the cycle. Not only will he be groundbreaking, but he's young, he's already a media darling, can both self-fund and has the connections to raise substantial amounts of money, is attractive, and is a potential future statewide candidate if he wins.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 08:55:36 PM PST

  •  Tea Party creating their own social media site (0+ / 0-)

    Link to HuffPo story.

    I'm not linking to the Tea Party Community site, but the front page of the site has a virtually identical layout to Facebook's front page.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 09:28:24 PM PST

  •  US House 2014 (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, WisJohn, bfen, KingofSpades, Taget

    This would be my Red to Blue rank of Republican seats for a Democratic majority in the US House:

    01.- CA-31 D+5 G Miller
    02.- CA-21 D+2 D Valadao
    03.- CO-06 D+1 M Coffman
    04.- IL-13 EVEN R Davis
    05.- NY-19 D+1 C Gibson
    06.- NV-03 EVEN J Heck
    07.- NY-11 R+2 M Grimm
    08.- IA-03 EVEN T Latham
    09.- NY-02 EVEN? P King (if EVEN)
    10.- NY-23 R+3 T Reed
    11.- CA-10 R+1 J Denham
    12.- MI-01 R+5 D Benishek
    13.- MI-11 R+4 K Bentivolio
    14.- NE-02 R+4 L Terry
    15.- MI-06 R+1 F Upton
    16.- NJ-03 R+2? J Runyan (if R+2)
    17.- VA-02 R+2 S Rigell

    With some (future) open seats that can up in the rank, surely it would not be necessary to look at more, even losing some seat.

    •  Please explain your rankings further (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      betelgeux, R30A, Taget

      Are you saying that Peter King is 9th most likely to lose among Republicans? If that's really the case, the Democrats have no chance to pick up more than 8 seats, because King is not losing, unless perhaps some monster-strong candidate runs against him, and I don't see it, especially in a midterm election.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 01:41:13 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Time for finding this monster-strong candidate (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Taget

        The rank comes from a numerical basis from the data of the last cycle. In the case of NY-02 and NJ-03 still we have not the Obama data of 2012, then I do the calculus with the 2004-2008 PVI. As consecuence this is not a probability of future events, it is a measure of the weakness in the last cycle for begining to work this cycle.

        The Redistricting process and the last election results give us a new overview. P King was one of the few Republican incumbent that see his district weakened, when the majority see their districts improved (since a Republican point). And as consecuence he has not a strong performance, winning only a 52% of the vote without a strong Democratic contestation. Then since now he can be considered one of the weakest, in relative terms, Republicans in the US House.

        The last cycle end the career of the most weak Republicans then. The weakest Republicans now survived, and are stronger than the defeated Republicans. Only one of the Republican winners underperforms Romney, only 8 gets below a 50%.

        Every new gain will need a monster-strong candidate. Who would you suggest?

        These Republicans are not undefeatable. Just let to the Republicans have a bad year.

        •  Well, there was a candidate who was suggested (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          abgin

          in 2012; I forget her name. She declined to run in 2012. What makes you think she'd be interested in running in a midterm election, when she'd have even less of a chance of winning?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 07:18:25 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The question is (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            that a district with low contestation in 2012 can become more competitive in 2014 only with a stronger challenge.

            Maybe she feel that this district was not a priority for the Democratic party in 2012. Now it can be different. And surely in 2016 it can be better still.

            The Republicans Gerrymandered other states like WI, PA,... It is not rare that states like CA and NY become the states that give better chance to the Democratic party in the following years. Also Michigan was Gerrymandered, but still is a D+4/D+3 state.

            •  There are specific local conditions, though (0+ / 0-)

              as Skaje alludes to below. I don't think King can be defeated, certainly not in 2014, but probably not for the foreseeable future (including 2016).

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 07:57:16 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  Not until bjssp runs in 2016. (5+ / 0-)

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 04:07:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think your (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      8 9 and 14-17 look very good for us. I suspect there are a bunch of other seats we might have a better chance at winning.

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 12:27:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You have below some the rank expanded (0+ / 0-)

        Some of the Republicans that where weaker before the redistricting have now more Republican districts that help them performing stronger.

        In the other side are Coffman, King and some representative from California that have now less Republican seats.

    •  If King retires (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, abgin, MichaelNY

      his seat is a prime pickup opportunity (it's about the same politically as Tim Bishop's now).  Otherwise, it will only happen in a Dem wave year.

      I'd also rank a few you didn't mention higher than some of those...like FL-02 (Southerland), FL-10 (Webster), CA-25 (McKeon), KS-03 (Yoder), OH-14 (Joyce), and WI-07 (Duffy).

      Otherwise, I like your list.

      •  I think you are right about P King (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Skaje

        To win a majority in the US House will be a little easier than the rank shows because surely it will be some interesting open seat, but still a good year will be necessary, a Democratic wave.

        Many people think the Republicans have assured the majority for all the decade. I think not the same. It is likely a Democratic wave before 2022.

        If you are interested, these would be the following positions of the rank:

        18.- IN-02 R+6 J Warloski
        19.- MN-02 R+2 P Kline
        20.- MI-07 R+3 T Walberg
        21.- MI-03 R+4 J Amash
        22.- NY-27 R+8 C Collins
        23.- NJ-02 EVEN? F LoBiondo (if EVEN)
        24.- PA-08 R+1 M Fitzpatrick
        25.- WI-08 R+2 R Ribble
        26.- OH-14 R+3? D Joyce (if R+3)
        27.- CA-25 R+3 H McKeon
        28.- WI-01 R+3 P Ryan
        29.- IA-04 R+5 S King
        30.- FL-10 R+6 D Webster
        31.- PA-12 R+6? K Rothfus (if R+6)
        32.- WI-07 R+2 S Duffy
        33.- PA-15 R+2 C Dent
        34.- PA-16 R+4 J Pitts
        35.- CO-03 R+5 S Tipton
        36.- OH-16 R+6 J Renacci
        37.- FL-02 R+6 S Southerland
        38.- PA-07 EVEN? P Meehan (if EVEN)
        39.- PA-06 R+2 J Gerlach
        40.- FL-13 R+2 B Young
        41.- NY-22 R+3 R Hanna
        42.- NJ-05 R+4? S Garrett (if R+4)
        43.- PA-03 R+5? M Kelly (if R+5)
        44.- FL-16 R+6 V Buchanan
        45.- WA-08 R+1 D Reichert
        46.- MN-03 R+2 E Paulsen
        47.- VA-10 R+2 F Wolf
        48.- MI-08 R+2 M Rogers
        49.- VA-04 R+4 R Forbes
        50.- VA-05 R+5 R Hurt

        51.- NC-09 R+8 R Pittenger
        52.- KY-06 R+9 A Barr
        53.- CA-39 R+4 E Royce
        54.- MT-AL R+7 S Daines
        55.- MN-06 R+10 M Bachmann

        Some representatives that were considered weaker until now, improved their strength because their districts are significantly more Republican after the redistricting process.

        Still, for me they key districts are in the previous list plus some interesting open seats.

    •  After Pete King's show of defiance against the GOP (5+ / 0-)

      I'd say he's much more difficult to beat than I thought.  But if he retires soon, every Democrat in the state should entice DA Kathleen Rice in.  

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 06:33:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Looking at potential Democratic loses (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      At this point I see not the Democratic party losing seats except in a very bad year. And if the Democratic party can not keep MN-07 and the seats under R+4, would likely be losing seats. I see not a Democratic majority losing some of them.

      There are four districts that the party can lose by their very Republican PVI (UT-04 now R+16, VW-03 now R+14, NC-07 now R+12 and GA-12 now R+9) but I think these districts can be replaced if it is necessary. The fight for these districts is assured, except if get open, but still will be very difficult to keep them.

      Some Republican open seat can help too.

      •  Hmmm (0+ / 0-)

        Well, it's the conventional wisdom that the party in the White House usually loses seats in midterm elections. I know this has been vehemently disputed by DCCylone, but unless someone can show me otherwise, it seems like it's usually been true since the 1940s or so. The idea that the Democrats will definitely net a gain in House seats unless the year is very bad seems counterintuitive to me.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 07:22:29 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Since 1934 (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Skaje, James Allen, abgin

          the party in the White House has lost House seats in most midterms, with two fairly recent exceptions (1998 and 2002).  That hasn't always been true in Senate contests, due to the variance in seats that are up.

          Such losses aren't always big ones, but we shouldn't really expect a gain in House seats.  More likely a status quo race or modest losses.  Big losses aren't very likely as the GOP picked off a lot of lower-hanging fruit in 2010; remember that the 1998 Democratic gains followed the 1994 disaster, and the GOP dodged a bullet in 2002 but were skunked in 2006 when they were much more exposed.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 08:08:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Thanks for giving the details (0+ / 0-)

            I certainly agree that we shouldn't expect to gain House seats in 2014. That doesn't mean we can't hope and work for such gains, of course! But a loss of 5 or fewer seats wouldn't be a particularly bad result, although anything less than a gain would certainly disappoint me.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 08:24:55 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I can't think of more than 5 that are really (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              endangered.  Gerrymandering's other result (other than probably locking up the house majority for the Rs) is giving us a big base of districts overpacked with Democrats.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 09:33:02 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Counterintuitive perhaps (5+ / 0-)

          but consider the only two exceptions to the "president's party loses seats in a mid-term" rule since the 1940s are 1998 and 2002...that is, two of the most recent mid-term elections!

          So out of the four most recent mid-term elections (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010), the president's party gained seats in two of them, and lost in two of them.

          Point being, I'm not so sure the historical correlations are as relevant anymore.  I'm not about to totally throw it out, but it certainly isn't a "rule" anymore when two of the most recent examples contradict it.

          I think the best correlation of all is the president's popularity leading up to a mid-term election.  Unpopular presidents lose seats.  Popular ones (like Clinton 1998 and Bush 2002) can defy the rule.  There might also be a correlation between how strongly the president's party did in the presidential year...that is, how "overextended" they are.  Democrats are certainly not overextended at the moment in the House, with most of our red-district reps washed out.  Meaning, for Republicans to pick up seats next year, they would have to probably win the national House vote by a non-trivial amount.  Breaking even won't net them any more.

          One last thing, I'd also try to draw a distinction between wave years which clearly favor one party, and more neutral years in which only a handful of seats change hands.  Whether or not one party gained or lost is less significant if it's a small number, because small changes could have then reversed the result.  Big waves like 2010, 2006, 1994, and 1974 are more significant.  But in 1962, Republicans only gained a single seat, but that's counted as part of the rule.  Had that been reversed (from a change in retirements or what not), we would have another contradiction.

          All in all, I think 2014 will figure most heavily on how Obama's 2nd-term agenda is taken by the public.

    •  The key for a lot of those races is SuperPACS. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, abgin

      In NY-11 that is one thing that made a huge difference for Grimm.  Murphy was competitive in money raised.  But absolutely swamped in outside spending.  I am sure for other races in expensive media markets (like NYC) where a highly expensive and fragmented media market makes frequent mailed advertising critical.

      I wouldn't put Peter King on that list.  The Obama numbers are deceptive.  He's a lot stronger than that.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:32:12 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Just for NY-02 we have lack of Obama numbers (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Still it is not known the performance of B Obama in the district in 2012.

        For all the districts where you see not "?" in the PVI the calculus is done with the 2008-2012 PVI. For the districts with ?, where there are not Obama data for 2012 the calculus is done with the 2004-2008 PVI (EVEN for NY-02). Taking the 2008 PVI in the place of the 2004-2008 PVI, NY-02 would be R+2 and even in this case NY-02 would down only to the 12 position in the rank. The numbers put so consistently NY-02 in good positions of the rank. The biggest weakness of P King come from his 52% in a uncontested race. Many Republicans do better than P King the last year.

  •  (Missed) Big Dog Alert! (6+ / 0-)

    apparently Bill Clinton was in Osaka today at the US consulate! this annoys me because I was also in Osaka today, and if I had known that Bill Clinton was around, I would have tried to go creep.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 05:23:38 AM PST

  •  Menendez story: trail of women runs cold (4+ / 0-)
    A week after the claims made headlines in the United States and on this Caribbean island, the alleged prostitutes have disappeared. An attorney who once represented two of the women said he hadn’t spoken to them in months, and then stopped returning phone calls himself. A two-bedroom apartment where some of the alleged liaisons took place is now vacant. Little remains here beyond hazy memories
    http://www.miamiherald.com/...

    www.buonoforgovernor.com

    by Paleo on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 06:05:28 AM PST

  •  MI Dem chair election (0+ / 0-)

    Read this about how nasty the fight for the chair of the Michigan Democratic Party has become

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 09:39:17 AM PST

    •  AL GOP just had their own nasty Party Chair fight (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat

      The current GOP leader just barely eeked out a win over a guy that was endorsed by the State House Speaker, current Governor, and Lt. Gov by a vote of 221-159.  The guy who is the current party chair was endorsed by Roy Moore.  That's the direction the current AL GOP is going.

      http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/...

    •  This is necessary (0+ / 0-)

      This has been bubbling under the surface for years, and now is as good a time as ever to finally bring it to a head.  I don't have any dog in this fight, but I realize a lot of folks have been pissed for a very long time, and Mark's been in there for a very long time, and it's time to work out the problems and issues.  Needless to say, the convention could get really interesting, later this month.

  •  MA Sen (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    betelgeux, MichaelNY

    I have been looking into the social media of the two candidates.

    Lynch has launched a Senate Facebook page and has made about a dozen posts since announcing. This is the most annoying one:

    I understand Scott Brown’s decision not to run for Senate. He has basically been campaigning non-stop for three years. It’s perfectly understandable that he wouldn't want to undertake another campaign. I wish all the best to Scott, Gail and their family. -SFL
    https://www.facebook.com/...

    That is actually different than his congressional page, he launched it on January 29th and already has over 1,300 likes. His website is also a splash page similar to Markey's, but still much better. http://www.stephenflynch.com/

    It doesn't appear Markey has a page up yet. Except his official House page I just found an old congressional page he hasn't touched since December. It is oddly called "The Ed Markey Committee" and has only one like of a page lobbying for cardboard boxes in the House cafeteria...
    http://www.facebook.com/...

    I'm not that worried but I would just like it if Markey would get his shit in gear here quicker. I do not want Stephen Lynch as Senator.

  •  LOL (6+ / 0-)

    reading through the epic Tetalman sub-thread above (86 mentions of his name in this diary, by comparison Markey has only 16).  Issa's seat may eventually be competitive, but it would probably take a perfect storm to get this one...he would retire, the GOP nominee would be unacceptable, we would have an A-list candidate, good Dem year overall, etc.

    These are the seats in California alone I'd rank as more likely to switch:

    1) Miller
    2) Valadao
    3) Denham
    4) McKeon (and we really should contest this one, 10 point margin last year)

    I'd put Issa at about the same level as Royce, following that.

  •  Is MA SoS Bill Galvin a potential Gov. candidate? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    betelgeux, MichaelNY

    He was considered a rising star in the Democratic party when he moved up from the legislature in '94, and has been known to want to move up before; in '06 he was considered so close to announcing for Governor that candidates began announcing for SoS on the presumption he was running. He decided against running at the last minute in late '05, presumably intimidated by his competition in Reilly, Gabrieli, and Patrick. But Grossman is in an entirely different tier of less intimidating competition.

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 01:01:52 PM PST

    •  Nitpicky correction (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Audrid, MichaelNY

      Galvin is Secretary of the Commonwealth, not Secretary of State.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 04:15:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's functionally the same (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        That's the official name, but it's the functional SoS of Massachusetts; he even refers to himself as Secretary of State in his ads, and news articles usually do as well.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 07:41:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh no, you're right (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          They are the exact same thing, I'm just being nitpicky on the title. Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Virginia are all Commonwealths and the Secretary is named as such. Kentucky is a commonwealth too, but their elections officer is called SoS for some nebulous reason.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:08:24 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I have to admit... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sapelcovits

      from looking at various SoS/Election Board, Galvin gets disqualified in my book because of how shitty his department's website is.

      Something as simple as election results by town/county aren't available online!

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections. IL-07.

      by jeffmd on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 10:33:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  If he does I hope he uses his nickname. (0+ / 0-)

      "Prince of Darkness for Governor!"

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:38:27 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Is it just me (0+ / 0-)

      Or does Massachusetts have an extremely weak Democratic bench, despite being such a strongly Democratic state?

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:42:26 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Depends on your definition (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        We control most everything, and there's plenty of ambitious pols, but they're all fairly generic and unimpressive.

        (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

        by Setsuna Mudo on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 05:18:15 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  He lives in my neighborhood (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sapelcovits, MichaelNY

      he's quite popular, even though he actually seems to be a fairly shy and awkward individual. I think he likes his current job. Next time I see him I am planning on haranguing him for his office's BS opinion against early voting.

      28, Male, MA-07 (hometown MI-06)

      by bumiputera on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 07:28:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'll just leave this here with no comment (0+ / 0-)

    Gerrymandering is not what’s wrong with American politics:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

    by Daman09 on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 02:11:25 PM PST

  •  So I should be watching the Super Bowl (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, itskevin, betelgeux, sapelcovits

    and rooting for my home team, yet I'm here on DKE instead about to complain about being bored.

    22, D, pragmatic progressive (-4.50, -5.18), CA-12.

    by kurykh on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 03:46:53 PM PST

  •  Worst Super Bowl ad of all time (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, LordMike

    Just saw the GoDaddy ad that featured an odd couple kissing each other. It was the worst Super Bowl ad that aired nationwide, in my opinion.

    The Worst Super Bowl Ad of All Time, however, only aired in Michigan, and it's Pete Hokestra's "Debbie Spend-It-Now" ad:

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 04:01:48 PM PST

  •  Top GOP donors banding together (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, Taget

    to try to stop the stream of awful Senate candidates they have fielded in recent years

    The biggest donors in the Republican Party are financing a new group to recruit seasoned candidates and protect Senate incumbents from challenges by far-right conservatives and Tea Party enthusiasts who Republican leaders worry could complicate the party’s efforts to win control of the Senate.
    Figured something like this would happen after Akin and Mourdock last year (and other awful candidates like Hoekstra, Allen, and Raese).  Then again, I thought it would happen after 2010 as well (O'Donnell, Angle, Buck, and Miller).

    They're already gearing up to try to stop King in Iowa, and will probably go after Miller in Alaska as well if he runs.  We'll see how successful they are.

    •  Their money would be better spent in the House (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      because the gerrymandered to hell safe districts breeds far right ideologues. Take the money they're going to spend on these 3-4-5 Senate races and put them towards 20 House seats and primary the teabaggers from the center.

      If these far right types were worried about getting big money challenge from the moderate wing, they wouldn't be nearly as nutty and congress is the breeding ground for some of these folks to build up a resume and base to launch Senate runs.  

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 08:59:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I kind of don't get it. (7+ / 0-)

      It's not that they lacked decent candidates who had money and establishment support in Lugar, Castle, etc. It's just that their base voted against them anyway. Plus: Karl Rove is involved with this? Don't they realize that's the kiss of death for them?

    •  George Allen was probably the best they could get (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 09:17:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Really? (0+ / 0-)

        I figured they could have at least had the potential of outrunning Romney's share with someone else...one of their state senators perhaps.  There's also their other statewide guys (Bolling, Cuccinelli), but I suppose they may have not been interested, preferring to wait for governor.

        Anyway, with Allen it was almost guaranteed he would not outperform Romney.  Can't think of anyone who would vote Obama-Allen.

    •  I don't think it would work against King (4+ / 0-)

      A poll showed him very popular among IA Republicans so it's not like he's a blank slate.

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 09:19:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI-1 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY

    I'm hoping we get Benishik next time around.  However, I'm not sure how likely that is, given how he was at least somewhat unpopular last time around and still managed to hang on.  

    •  Obama collapsed in just about all areas (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wwmiv, MichaelNY, DownstateDemocrat

      with an extraction-based economy, which includes the UP. I have to believe we'll be better off with Obama not at the top of the ballot (and a candidate with a better organization than McDowell).

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:10:38 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Do we have any UP State Senators? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:13:05 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Nope (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          We do not. They're all urban districts.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 12:13:58 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  We don't have much of a state-level bench there (0+ / 0-)

            2010 pretty much wiped out the Democrats up there. After the 2010 election, the only Dem  up there was the State Rep from Marquette County. He probably is too liberal for the district.

            I was actually pretty shocked that McDowell lost. He represented a fairly red State House district. He seems to fit the district really well. Obviously McDowell should not run again, but I really don't think we have any better options. Lon Johnson was a possibility, but it appears he is running for party chair.

            M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

            by slacks on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 01:27:31 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Half (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, MichaelNY

              Half of the UP state house delegation are Democrats.  The district that covers the an eastern corner of the district (107) will always be hard to win if only because it includes parts of conservative Northern Michigan (LP), too, but 108 further west is definitely gettable.

              As for the 1st Congressional District - actually, the UP part of it - I don't take the view that it's trending away in any real way or at least in a way that can't be corrected, or that it's getting harder to win.  McDowell's very, very narrow loss can almost be entirely chalked up to Republican redistricting.  He'd have won the district, otherwise.  

              Not sure I'd run someone for a third time, but I'm not worried about our chances for further Democratic gains, up there.  As much as I didn't like his grandstanding on Obamacare, if they put Stupak back up, he'd win in a rout.  But, I'm sure he's completely done with politics.  

              The UP didn't swing back as far or as quickly as I or anyone else would have liked it to in one cycle, but I don't read the results as ominous.  Quite the opposite.  They actually kind fo confirmed for me that the district isn't permanently lost as I had begun to worry after the 2010 election.

              •  Oh, Derek Bailey (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                bumiputera

                Oh, as for a good candidate for the 1st, I was really hoping that Derek Bailey would have held out his challenge to McDowell.  He'd have been a pretty dynamic candidate.

              •  The best part about McDowell (0+ / 0-)

                is that he represented the 107th. You don't win that seat as a bad candidate.

                As for the 108, I don't we can beat McBroom in 2014. He is really conservative, but a very nice guy. Our candidate this year, Sharon Gray was solid and even beat former State Rep Judy Nerat in a primary.

                The one person I wonder about for the MI-1 is Mike Prusi. He passed on running in 2010 after being term limited in the Senate. He was the Democratic leader for a little bit.

                M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

                by slacks on Mon Feb 04, 2013 at 11:06:57 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

  •  My dad just texted me and asked (11+ / 0-)

    if I knew about Dave's Redistricting App.  Lol.

    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 09:35:43 PM PST

  •  Oregon Dems can look up at Washington State (0+ / 0-)

    and say "Well, no gay marriage (yet) and we don't use gender-neutral language, but at least we don't have the most regressive state tax system in the country."

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sun Feb 03, 2013 at 11:05:59 PM PST

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