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10:04 AM PT: MA-Sen: Well, blargh. After hemming and hawing and even contradicting published reports saying he'd run for Senate, conservative Democratic Rep. Stephen Lynch finally launched his campaign in the special election to succeed John Kerry. And Lynch's preferred campaign message is exactly as chip-on-the-shoulder as you'd expect. Indeed, seeing as he begins the race way behind in the polls against fellow Rep. Ed Markey, Lynch's only hope is to go negative. He's off to a fast start:

"It will be an uphill fight for me, but the fight is worth fighting. Shame on us to allow someone to clear the field, box out all the other candidates, and buy the election," said Lynch, in an apparent reference to Markey....
Lynch says Markey is an "insulated person" after 38 years in Congress.
@mlevenson via Twitter for iPhone
"People don't like the Democratic establishment... And I think that helps me," lynch says.
@mlevenson via Twitter for iPhone
Lynch says Markey backed by "the Washington crowd" and won't "shake things up."
@mlevenson via Twitter for iPhone
In addition to attacking Markey, Lynch undoubtedly will try to run to his right. Here's the first taste:
Lynch says Brown "appealed to a certain group that I might appeal to as well."
@mlevenson via Twitter for iPhone
Never mind that Elizabeth Warren handily beat Scott Brown without trying to clone his most cloying attributes, as Lynch prefers to do. In any event, the person Lynch is appealing to most right now is Brown himself, since the Republican former senator has to be licking his chops at the prospect of a nasty primary between the two Democrats. Brown still hasn't announced a decision, but surely this development can only make his entry more likely.

So what should Markey do now? Fortunately, he has two advantages: He's got a lot more money than Lynch, and he's got a terrific progressive profile. I don't think he has to go negative. Rather, he can and should tout his credentials loudly in order to lock down the liberal vote, which still constitutes the majority of the primary electorate, despite what Lynch may believe. Lynch of course will have his union allies, but in a statewide primary like this, there are lots of votes out there for Markey to unearth.

Oh, and put up your freakin' website already. That would help.

12:53 PM PT (David Jarman): Polltopia: If you're a close poll-watcher, you've probably noticed what I've noticed over the last couple months, which is Rasmussen putting up strangely positive numbers for the Democrats, on presidential approval and especially on the generic House ballot (where they've been putting up take-back-the-majority type numbers with Dem leads in the high-single-digits, usually notably better than what other pollsters like PPP are finding). Well, Harry Enten has noticed too, and he takes Rasmussen to task for it.

You might be thinking that Rasmussen is consciously overcompensating for its overly-Republican results over the previous few cycles by putting a thumb on the scales in the Dems' direction, but it's not that simple; instead, it looks like they're just committing the same methodological problems that have always plagued them, but in the wake of a solid 2012 election for the Dems, that leads Rasmussen down the same screwed-up path but in the opposite direction. Instead of weighting based on demographics using Census data like good pollsters usually do, Rasmussen continues to weight based on party ID in the last election (a bad idea, because party ID isn't an immutable characteristic but one that fluctuates easily based on who's up and who's down politically). Dems had a 6-pt edge in 2012 exit polls in 2012. So, now we've got a weighted sample in Rasmussen polls that's 38 D, 32 R: maybe right for a presidential election, but overly rosy for a midterm.

1:51 PM PT: NJ-Sen: There was nothing in Al Capone's vault... but it wasn't Geraldo's fault. However, if the gasbag TV clown actually follows through and runs for Senate in New Jersey, it most definitely will be his fault. The most amazing thing? Geraldo, long berated as a lunatic liberal by FOX News types, wants to run as a Republican!

2:50 PM PT: RI-Gov: "Path to victory" is a phrase we use a lot around here, as in, does candidate X in race Y have any remotely plausible way of earning that brass ring. When you take a look at independent Gov. Lincoln Chafee's new poll numbers from PPP, though, you'll be hard-pressed to see one. Chafee, a former Republican, benefitted from a split field in 2010, where he was very probably to the left of an unlikable Democratic nominee and barely edged out the GOP candidate.

Now, like many other governors nationwide, Chafee's seen his job ratings drop precipitously (down to 59 percent disapproving and just 33 percent approving), thanks in part to years of a challenging economy and budget cuts—in other words, the classic gubernatorial malaise. A man without a home, he's openly talked about joining the Democratic Party, but really, he's got nowhere to go. Tom Jensen summarizes:

• In four different scenarios testing four candidates—either Gina Raimondo or Angel Taveras on the Democratic side, either Brendan Doherty or Allan Fung on the Republican side, Chafee running as an independent, and Moderate Party candidate Ken Block—Chafee finishes third in every single one, running behind both the Democratic and Republican candidates.

• In two scenarios testing Chafee as the Democratic candidate, he finishes second, running 4 points behind the Republican candidates we tested, Brendan Doherty and Allan Fung.

• It would be difficult for Chafee to become the Democratic candidate anyway though. 35% of Democratic primary voters want Gina Raimondo to be their candidate next year to just 22% for Chafee, 19% for Angel Taveras, and 11% for Ernie Almonte.

PPP polled something like a dozen different configurations for this race, so I'm going to eschew our usual habit of laying them all out. (You can analyze them all in PPP's PDF.) But there's absolutely no good news in here for Chafee, which in a way is too bad, since Raimondo, the state treasurer and Democratic front-runner, seems to occupy ideological space to Chafee's right. She's made her mark cutting union pensions and is at the forefront of the austerity movement, even encouraging the creation of a shadowy "pension overhaul" group called EngageRI that won't release the names of its donors.

Providence Mayor Angel Taveras seems like the more progressive choice, and in a primary matchup without Chafee, he trails Raimondo 44-35, with former state Auditor Ernie Almonte at 9. So while Raimondo is tight with big-money interests, these numbers suggest Taveras could pose a real threat to her if he makes the race.

P.S. There's been strong movement in favor of gay marriage in Rhode Island, with voters now supporting it 57-36. To show you how fast the issue has moved, when PPP asked two years ago, the margin was 50-41 in favor. Hopefully these numbers will buttress marriage equality supporters as legislation to legalize same-sex marriage makes its way through the legislature (it's passed the House but conservative Democrats in charge of the Senate are making things very uncertain).

3:02 PM PT: Texas: PPP has some Lone Star State miscellany, asking their usual gay marriage and sports questions. (Did you ever imagine there'd be a pollster with an equal interest in both topics? This is why Tom Jensen is awesome.) GOP Sen. Ted Cruz's first job approval ratings are pretty meh, at 36-30, but that actually gives him the highest net approval of any statewide elected official PPP's tested there. Meanwhile, as you'd expect, most Texans are opposed to same-sex marriage, by a 55-35 margin, but 61 percent support some form of legal recognition once you include civil unions.

3:13 PM PT: OH-Treasurer: It's the news you've all been waiting for: DKE's least-favorite Republican of the 2012 cycle, Josh Mandel, says he'll seek re-election as state treasurer next year. Mandel, of course, was solidly thumped by Sen. Sherrod Brown, despite being the beneficiary of eleventy-zillion moneys spent on his behalf by outside groups. Of course, after first winning his current post in 2010, Mandel promised he wasn't looking for an immediate promotion, so I definitely won't trust his current pronouncement until the filing deadline passes. Hopefully we'll get to beat him again, though!

4:20 PM PT: P.S. Lynch also picked up the endorsement of the Iron Workers union—but seeing as he once was an iron worker himself, this is like Rudy Giuliani endorsing the Yankees. Still, it'll be worth watching to see whether any labor groups back Markey (this is the first union endorsement in the race), or whether Lynch will lock them all up.

4:22 PM PT: KS-Sen, -Gov: Republican Secretary of State Kris Kobach says he'll seek re-election to his current job in 2014, which is noteworthy only because it means he won't be issuing a primary challenge to either Gov. Sam Brownback or Sen. Pat Roberts, both of whom go before voters again next year.

4:35 PM PT: WY-Gov: I have to admit that while I can probably name the governors of all 50 states, I struggle to remember the name of the guy in charge of Wyoming. But (god bless Wikipedia) that would be Republican Matt Mead, elected in a landslide in 2010. Assuming he runs again, will he be re-elected next year? In ruby red Wyoming, you'd have to bank on it—unless, of course, he faces a primary challenge. And it looks like he's just earned one, though it's hard to tell how serious it is.

It turns out Mead just signed a bill that strips State Superintendent of Public Instruction Cindy Hill "of leadership of the state Department of Education, reassigning those duties to a person appointed by the governor." Hill is challenging the move in court, but I'm guessing the fact that Mead was able to shunt her aside via legislative maneuvering means Hill doesn't have a whole lot of friends in the establishment.

4:45 PM PT: DCCC, NRCC: Despite being deep in the minority, House Democrats outraised their GOP counterparts by a wide margin in the 2011-12 cycle: The DCCC took in $184 million versus $156 million for the NRCC. That probably helped the Democrats pick up seats, though of course the majority remains as elusive as ever. In any event, both parties started the year with $1.5 million in cash, while the D-Trip had slightly higher debt ($13.5 mil vs. $12 mil).

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 06:00:07 AM PST

  •  an eloquently stated argument (12+ / 0-)

    detailing why Democratic VA Delegates should vote for the new State Senate map.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 06:01:56 AM PST

  •  RI-Gov (7+ / 0-)

    former Congressman Bob Weygand considering a run, implies he will stay out if Gina Raimondo gets in: http://blogs.wpri.com/...

    it wouldn't be Weygand's first time running against Lincoln Chafee. the two went head-to-head in 2000 after Chafee was appointed to his dad's Senate seat, and Chafee won 57-43. that race featured the somewhat uncommon pro-choice Republican vs. pro-life Democrat setup.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 06:03:28 AM PST

  •  Previous Diary (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I'm not sure the DKE community is going to see my replies to last night's comments that political science and economics are not "science".

    I'd really prefer if we not stoop to that kind of low as it is demeaning to many of the comments - not just myself, by the way - that are well thought of members of DKE; walja, illinoyedr, myself, hoosierd42, audrid, dccyclone, and others here are or have at some point been students or professionals either directly or in some tangential capacity in either of both of these fields.

    Much of what we know and discuss here at DKE is directly tied to the knowledge that both economists and political scientists have accumulated over the last half century. Without it, this vibrant commenting community would probably not exist.

    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

    by wwmiv on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 06:34:57 AM PST

  •  The Interior of this diary is vacant. We need to (6+ / 0-)

    appoint someone to fill the post.

    I've been waiting a while to post that because I keep missing the blank diarires haha.

    22, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)

    by JonathanMN on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 06:46:15 AM PST

  •  MA-Sen (5+ / 0-)

    looks like Mo Cowan has run into some trouble with the law before. hopefully this doesn't hurt Markey.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 06:54:55 AM PST

  •  RI Gov (7+ / 0-)

    Chafee looks like a goner, Raimondo looking good. ​

    3 Way
    Raimondo​ 32%
    ​Doherty​ 28%
    ​Chafee [I]​ 22%
    ​Block​ 8%
    ​unsure​ 9%

    Chafee as a Dem
    ​Doherty​ 39%
    Chafee [D]​ 35%
    ​Block​ 13%
    unsure 14%

    Primary
    Raimondo 35%
    Chafee 22%
    Taveras 19%
    Almonte 11%
    unsure 12%

    http://blogs.wpri.com/...
    •  not that familiar with CT politics (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, JohnnyBoston, MichaelNY

      Why is Chafee doing so poorly? I thought being an indie politician was GOLD up in the North East (See: King, Angus)

      Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

      by Daman09 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 07:53:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Rhode Island (6+ / 0-)

        and being independent only gets you so far if your governing isn't popular.  Why Chafee would be so unpopular I don't know--state budget troubles similar to those in Providence that hurt David Cicilline (who nonetheless survived, probably mostly due to his Democratic label?)

        As governor, Angus King had it relatively easy, as the economy expanded through most of his tenure (1995-2002.)

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 08:12:26 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Rhode Island. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        betelgeux, gabjoh, MichaelNY

        CT had an independent governor too, Lowell Weicker.  I don't get the sense that he had the easiest time of it.  As many people wrote regarding "independent President", there's a certain weakness that comes from lacking a natural base in the legislature.  

        Plus--I don't know if this still applies, but it's still a fun article--have you ever read Lincoln Steffans on Rhode Island?

        The elected Governors of Rhode Island are called “administrative mummies.” They have sat for years without power and without homage in the State House, while across the hall, in the office of the High Sheriff, Boss Brayton was the State.

        [...]

        As we have seen, the gubernatorial chair never had amounted to much more than an empty honor for “safe men.” No veto power went with it, and the appointive power was really wielded by Brayton in the interest of the machine[?] of the System.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 09:52:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Some people have written (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        betelgeux, MichaelNY

        that Assembly Speaker Fox, rather than Chafee, is the state's most powerful politician, though.  If so, I don't know if that's because of the powers of the office or because Fox (unlike Chafee), as a Democrat, has a base in the legislature.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 09:54:25 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  RI has consistently had the second worst (5+ / 0-)

          unemployment rate for years now, after MI. That's also affecting Chafee's #s

          •  Yes, although somehow (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            GoUBears, betelgeux, gabjoh, MichaelNY

            Providence Mayor Angel Taveras is, favorability-wise, "on top with a 63% favorable rating, followed by Raimondo at 57%, Fung at 55% and Doherty at 45%."  Given Providence's own terrible unemployment rate, I'd said it's still possible to be a popular executive in Rhode Island.  (And Taveras must be one hell of a politician.)

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:55:57 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I have to wonder if he's getting a little bit of a (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh, MichaelNY

              free pass considering how the previous mayor left the budget

            •  Taveras (5+ / 0-)

              I see several things there. one, he's an unpretentious guy with a great rags-to-riches story that I think a lot of people can appreciate. and what larcae says right above. Taveras basically closed the entire budget gap already. pretty amazing he didn't suffer politically for what he had to do to get to that point (laying off teachers for instance) but I guess people were so shell-shocked about the budget they're holding off.

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 02:32:30 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Do you think he'll run for any (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                betelgeux, MichaelNY

                statewide office?  Or for anything else?  A primary against Cicilline would be pretty awesome as entertainment ("Taveras: The Providence mayor you don't hate").  Some pollster with nothing but time on their hands, like PPP, should poll that.  

                27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 02:47:20 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  not sure (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  betelgeux, MichaelNY

                  to me it's an open question whether he runs for governor, if he's the D nominee he probably does well but the question is, can he beat Raimondo in a primary? he might be better off waiting until 2018. even if the Gov seat is occupied by a (non-super-unpopular) incumbent, surely there will be some statewide stepping stone position for him like AG (he's a lawyer) or Lt. Gov.

                  Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                  by sapelcovits on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:03:49 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  also (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Xenocrypt, betelgeux, MichaelNY

                    fun fact I hadn't realized before: Taveras actually ran for Congress in 2000, after Bob Weygand vacated the seat to run for Senate, and of course lost to Jim Langevin. Profile here

                    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                    by sapelcovits on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:06:12 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Notably, Taveras' favorability edge over Raimondo (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    is even stronger among Democrats than statewide: 70/17 for Taveras, 53/22 for Raimondo.  IIRC, I've read that Raimondo's signature accomplishment, pension reform, might not have gone over as well with some of the Democratic base as it did statewide.  Obviously she's still popular with them, but she's just as popular with Republicans, while Taveras (Republican favorability: 48/34) is a more partisanized popular figure.

                    Here's a WSJ interview with Raimondo:

                    So this is Gina Raimondo? The state treasurer who single-handedly overhauled Rhode Island's pension system and has unions screaming bloody murder?

                    [...]

                    Ms. Raimondo downplays the opposition from her former union allies. As she tells it, the reforms passed because she conducted "a huge, long, relentless public-education campaign," and there was no "rushing to a solution." Plus, the unions were at the table the entire time, she says. "Yes, there was a big protest. They weren't entirely supportive, but we had a reasonably productive dialogue the entire time—which we still have."

                    The unions tell a different story. In their version, the legislation was a done deal in the spring when Ms. Raimondo cut the discount rate and first floated the reforms. The commission and hearings were merely formalities to give the pretense of transparency and due process.

                    [...]

                    Ms. Raimondo poses a greater threat to the labor movement than any Republican, because she undercuts its narrative that pension reform is merely a cause célèbre for conservatives who want to stick it to unions. While the unions had an easy time vilifying New Jersey's pro-reform Republican governor, Chris Christie, the petite, pro-government Democrat will be more of a challenge.

                    My emphasis.  I don't have time to read the article beyond a skim, and Raimondo, unsurprisingly, didn't seem to engage in that kind of rhetoric herself.  But if that's how she's viewed by some labor elements, that might explain why Taveras' popularity is more weighted towards Democrats.

                    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                    by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:18:14 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  This would also explain why (from PPP's analysis): (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      Adam B, MichaelNY
                      Angel Taveras has an even better statewide favorability rating than Raimondo, with 63% of voters seeing him positively to 21% with an unfavorable opinion. But Taveras' general election numbers for Governor aren't as strong as Raimondo's.
                      Taveras is more popular among Democrats (who'll mostly vote for the Democrat anyway) and Raimondo is more popular among Republicans (which might not last in an actual campaign, but it might last more in a state race than in a federal race--she can keep playing up pension reform).  They're the same among self-IDed independents.  PPP didn't poll a Taveras/Raimondo primary, but my guess is he'd be ahead or tied there.

                      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                      by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:24:02 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

              •  Taveras brought NN12 to Providence! (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                We lit the river on fire!  Come on, that's heroic.

      •  see: RI and Maine aren't the same state! (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        betelgeux, MichaelNY

        West Coast elitists...

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 02:27:48 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Who is Gina Raimondo? (0+ / 0-)

      "These polls that the Republican candidate is putting out are like sleeping pills designed to lull the voters into sleeping on election day." -Harry Truman

      by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 12:12:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Who, other than Chafee, Supports Marriage Equality (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ?

      •  Doherty doesn't (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        betelgeux, MichaelNY

        Raimondo does. Block does IIRC. Fairly sure Taveras does. No idea about Almonte, I know little about him.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 02:33:42 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  What about Chafee's stark position (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          in favor of public education and against charter schools?

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 04:58:31 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm sure Taveras supports the idea of public (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            education. after all, he is a product of the Providence Public School system (as am I - full disclosure).

            but that being said, he did take an axe to education as part of his plan to close the budget hole.

            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 07:50:19 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  This poll seems to confirm that Chafee (0+ / 0-)

      is not strong enough.

      I would like the strongest Democratic candidate. Maybe L Chafee must retire in order to have the strongest candidates in.

  •  New York Reproductive Health Act -- Votes There? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, MichaelNY

    I know this will easily pass the New York Assmebly, but what are the chances this will pass the New York State Senate?  I know Cuomo, at least ostensibly, is pushing this strongly.  With the win of Cecilia Tkaczyk there are now 33 "democratic" state senators.  Of course we are screwed with the coalition ruling, but will this make it to the floor?  If so, are there any pro-choice republican state senators that would vote for it?

    I have researched on my own, but I can't find out who are the pro-choice republican state senators.  There are experts here who would know, so I am turning to you all.

    I appreciate any feedback.

    Thanks!

    27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor!

    by IndyLiberal on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 07:22:17 AM PST

    •  I would assume there are quite a few (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      suburban Republican Senators representing Obama-Gillibrand districts in the state who are pro-choice.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 04:59:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Idaho state senator, a Republican of course, (14+ / 0-)

    compares the plight of insurance companies in the US under Obamacare to the plight of Jews in Germany under the Nazis.  Can we get this lady to run for GA-Sen?

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 08:22:43 AM PST

    •  Not the first time she's said something ridiculous (13+ / 0-)
      A state senator from north-central Idaho is touting a scheme that’s been circulating on tea party blogs, calling for states that supported Mitt Romney to refuse to participate in the Electoral College in a move backers believe would change the election result.

      Sen. Sheryl Nuxoll, R-Cottonwood, sent an article out on Twitter headed, “A ‘last chance’ to have Mitt Romney as Pres

      Read more here: http://www.idahostatesman.com/...

      26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 08:30:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Woot!!! My own state senator!!! (8+ / 0-)

      I guess I'm just happy to be away from Idaho politics for now. Sad part about it is that if not for a few unlikely occurrences, she wouldn't be a state sen. First, if the first set of maps the redistricting commission proposed hadn't been proposed (even though they were much better than the monstrosities that passed later), Nuxoll would have lost the primary to my incumbent state sen, a nice, sane GOPer, Joyce Broadsword. But as it just so happened, the first set of maps would have put Broadsword against her bf Shawn Keough, so she announced her retirement rather than face her in a primary (one of the GOP members of the redistricting committee later admitted that they had been aiming at a Broadsword retirement). Then the maps changed, and Broadsword refused to renege on her retirement in order to face (and 90% chance beat) her sworn enemy Nuxoll (each has told the other that they will rot in hell).

      The other thing that let Nuxoll win is that while the southern counties in the district don't heavily outweigh the northern (more sane) ones, they comprise the vast majority of the GOP primary electorate, even though the southern counties are barely more GOP than the northern ones (which are traditionally Dem strongholds). Mary Heston, my doctor's wife ran against Nuxoll in the primary as a moderate (literally), but lost badly because of skewed turnout at Nuxoll's southern end (Heston won the northern end of the district handily). I had expected the result to be close, until primary day, when I registered and voted for the first time. What made my jaw drop was that while I was at the poll, some 40 people cast Dem ballots and 3 people cast GOP ballots, even though the races were equally noncompetitive on each side and I don't live in an overly Dem precinct. Once I saw that, I was resigned to a Sen. Nuxoll, because I knew that my county commissioner had no shot against her in the general, even though he ran as an I.

      ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

      by GoUBears on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:03:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  How weird, I had a dream last night (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      where someone made some horrendously tasteless parable to the Holocaust in an American political context and I gave them the tongue lashing of a lifetime.

      "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

      by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 01:16:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  senate confirmation (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, MichaelNY

    I know it is tradition for senators to abstain from votes regarding themselves. But are they allowed to vote to confirm themselves to a cabinet position. Hypothetically, could Kerry have cast the decisive vote to confirm himself as SoS if it came down to it?

    •  I don't see why not. He's a Senator until he is (5+ / 0-)

      confirmed, so he should be allowed to vote.

      One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

      by AUBoy2007 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 08:55:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's just a norm (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, MichaelNY

      Sort of like how the Speaker of the House isn't supposed to vote on bills. He or she can, of course. It's just not usually done (though I suspect that would change if they had a very slim majority).

    •  Conflict of interest rules? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Voting to confirm yourself might run afoul of rules regarding conflict of interest rules.  He materially gains from the motion, so he should abstain.  I do not have said rules in front of me but that is most likely the answer.

      "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

      by walja on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 01:34:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Does he materially gain though? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        At least in real dollar terms, I doubt the SoS is paid more than a Senator. And he'll likely even get paid less, since there will have to be a Saxbe fix on his pay.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 05:39:42 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  MA-SEN: Lynch officially in (6+ / 0-)

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/...

    He announced via a web video.  He's emphasizing populism, specifically his vote against TARP (Markey voted for it).

    I'm no Lynch fan but I see him running as a positive.  Markey could use a real opponent to sharpen his campaign skills ahead of the general.  Lynch looks strong enough to put up a real fight but weak enough that he's not really in danger of winning as long as Markey doesn't run a disastrous campaign.  

    Also if the primary wounds Lynch enough to make him vulnerable for renomination I'm all for it.

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), new LA-01 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 08:55:37 AM PST

  •  IL-02: Apparently Napolean Harris, who (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    dropped out and endorsed Robin Kelly, is anti-choice and against marriage equality. I'm not sure where Kelly is, but Toi Hutchinson has been pretty vocal in her support of marriage equality and is in fact pro-choice.

    http://capitolfax.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 09:07:19 AM PST

  •  question about the GOP (0+ / 0-)

    if the party turns into a third positionist party, would that be beneficial to the dems or would it cost us areas like OH, MI, WI etc?

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 10:13:29 AM PST

    •  Your question is way too vauge (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AUBoy2007, gabjoh, MichaelNY

      Where would the other party be ideologically?

      I can't imagine a major party emerging to the RIGHT of the GOP to replace them, considering demographic trends. And hell, if this theoretical new second party was to the left to the Democrats, I might jump ship. It really depends on the situation.

      •  other party? (0+ / 0-)

        I meant that the republicans would become third positionist (ie incorporating it into the party) not the GOP becoming extinct and the TPs replacing them.

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 10:37:04 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Then what the hell do you mean by third position? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I thought you meant like the lib dems in the UK or something.

          •  here (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            link

            The Third Position or Third Alternative is a revolutionary nationalist political position that emphasizes its opposition to both communism and capitalism. Advocates of Third Position politics typically present themselves as "beyond left and right", instead claiming to syncretize radical ideas from both ends of the political spectrum.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 10:51:57 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  If you mean "centrist" (0+ / 0-)

          The term that I think you're looking for is "third way."

          •  Third Position (5+ / 0-)

            Third position is a branch of fascism usually associated with Christian supremacy, and the answer to his/her question is that it would be very beneficial to have a not only clearly ideologically defined, but ideologically extreme, party to run against in a two party system.

            Frankly, the Republican party has already trended in that direction, and has trended as far in that direction as it can go and still be competitive in a two party system. The Republican party is the more populist party. It's already a soft nationalist party and and its economic platform (if I can use that term loosely) is right-wing populism in a business suit.

            The Republican party's problem in OH, MI, and WI, is not with rural populists, who already vote Republican federally, it's with it's with the culturally and economically moderate suburban and urban voters they've alienated with their cultural and social pandering to rural conservatives, religious populists, and southerners; and tacking further to the right won't help them with those voters.

            Not that moving closer to third positionism would help the Republican party anywhere. Whether the Republican party would lose more votes in OH, MI, WI vis-à-vis other states, I don't know, but I am fairly sure embracing a fascist ideology would be an across the board negative.

            (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

            by Setsuna Mudo on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:32:55 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I've never heard of it often being (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, betelgeux, MichaelNY

              associated with any particular religion.  As sacman said above Peron is the most obvious example, and he was fairly secular.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:51:49 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  incorporating what into the party? (0+ / 0-)

          In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

          by lordpet8 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:02:50 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  it won't happen. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera, Englishlefty, MichaelNY

      I don't know why you'd ask, if anything they seem to be moving further in the other direction.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 10:46:37 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  well its most likely to happen in states (0+ / 0-)

      Where the GOP is largely irrelevant, like CA for example (I believe there are 6 counties where the GOP is at 3rd party status) And in those states It would benificial for the Dems as the party would be way too small and way too conservative to really compete in the state.

      In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

      by lordpet8 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:01:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  What are those 6 counties? (0+ / 0-)

        Presumably you're mostly talking Pay area, although nowhere did Romney come in 3rd.

        •  yes and I'm talking about registration numbers (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem

          where declined to state has overtaken registered Republicans.

          The site that had the list seems to be down today. IIRC 5 of the counties were in the bay area, and the I believe Santa Cruz County was the 6th.

          In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

          by lordpet8 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:26:33 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  the third positionist right is not a big player in (0+ / 0-)

        the bay area etc. The few republicans that exist there (like Tom Campbell) are usually moderate. Where that type of third positionist rhetoric is prevalent in CA is in areas where the GOP is either in equal footing or dominant (think Outer SB county like in Donnelly's district)

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 02:05:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  So Lynch is using the eventual Brown attacks... (4+ / 0-)

    Bloody brilliant.  So he establishes the charges from "friendly fire" and then Brown will run with them the rest of the way out.  

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 10:18:49 AM PST

  •  NY-Mayor: Quinn secured the endorsment (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    betelgeux, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    of the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union.

    RWDSU isn't the city's biggest union, but its left-leaning reputation -- and Appelbaum's advocacy -- could help the speaker's liberal street cred if her primary opponents pull out the stops in trying to frame her as Bloomberg 2.0.
    http://www.nydailynews.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 10:18:56 AM PST

    •  They are repaying her (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      staunch anti Wal-Mart stance.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 05:04:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Question about NE-02. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Would Obama have won the old version last year, or would he just have been closer than with the current lines?

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, Coya shouldn't have been sent home.

    by WisJohn on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 10:34:27 AM PST

  •  Wyoming... (12+ / 0-)

    Moving toward changing rights for married couples into rights for domestic partners. Story here.

    The bill replaces the word "spouse" in state statutes with the phrase "domestic partner." Connolly testified before the committee Monday that the word "spouse" is used more than 300 times in Wyoming law and that the change would assist same-sex couples in a range of situations, including spousal support, disposing of a deceased partner's property and other family decisions.

    The same committee on Monday rejected by a 5-4 vote a bill that would have permitted same-sex marriage. But the one-vote margin also encouraged gay rights advocates.

    The changing face of Republican politics in the libertarian West. We saw this culture clash in presidential primaries in 2008 and 2012. How long before the conflict between the Bible Belt (and Mormons and conservative Catholics) and the libertarians (and suburban "moderates") really shows itself in Congress?

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:02:58 AM PST

  •  TX-Pres: Hillary Clinton leading Rick Perry 50-42 (4+ / 0-)

    No, I'm not kidding when I say that.

    Of course, it's nearly four years until the next presidential election, and there's very little chance that Rick Perry will be the 2016 Republican presidential nominee, but that's certainly worth noting.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:07:43 AM PST

    •  No, it's not worth noting (9+ / 0-)

      these polls are a complete waste of time and only amount to name rec and relative favorability of the candidates and have absolutely zero predictive power.

      All it tells us is that Perry is unpopular and Clinton popular today, not four years from now.

      •  Normally, I'd agree (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwmiv, WisJohn, GoUBears, James Allen, itskevin

        but Clinton has a 50% favorability rating, and just about everyone who is cognizant of reality as well as votes regularly knows who Hillary Clinton is.  This means Clinton probably has a high floor in these sorts of state that were ancestrally democratic (KY) and have changing demos (TX).

        Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

        by Daman09 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:25:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah (7+ / 0-)

          This sort-of serves as a benchmark. I'd venture to say that Clinton could be competitive in Texas against the right Republican, but I have to say that her ceiling against a competent Republican is probably 47%.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:41:44 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Where would Clinton do better than Obama? (0+ / 0-)

            I'd imagine places like East Texas (except Dallas County).

            "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

            by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 01:12:56 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  No (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Chachy, MichaelNY

              She's the perfect candidate to harness the growing Hispanic electoral strength. Combine that with a Hispanic VP nominee, which is a distinct possibility, and you run the table in San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, and every border county, both in margins, and in higher turnout.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 02:05:59 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Who would you suggest for a Hispanic VP (0+ / 0-)

                on Our side? Maybe Julian Castro?

                •  No way (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  jncca, Stephen Wolf, MichaelNY

                  A Mayor won't cut it I'm afraid, especially an unknown one...and make no mistake, Castro is completely unknown outside the teeny tiny world of hardcore political junkies.  People would instantly think this is Democrats now pulling a Dan Quayle/Sarah Palin, only worse since those were at least a Senator and a Governor.  I think it has to be a Governor or Senator, or top national military leader.  And who is there that fits?  Not really anyone of stature.  Bill Richardson looked great until his fall from grace, he's not viable anymore.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:01:30 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  That's why I was asking (0+ / 0-)

                    I can't really think of any good senators or governors we have. Certainly not Bob Menendez. Maybe Ken Salazar, if he doesn't just want to retire?

                    Although I should note that Castro actually has more constituents than Paul Ryan.

                  •  NY/Los Angeles/Chicago (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    ArkDem14, Daman09

                    Mayors could.  But Villaraigosa is the only Hispanic among them, and him on a ticket would be enough for me to have to think twice before voting Democrat.  He's a nonstarter.

                    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                    by jncca on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:27:12 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Castro was the keynote at the DNC (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    wwmiv

                    And that has a bigger audience than just hardcore political junkies, so "completely unknown" isn't all that accurate. How many people knew the name Joe Biden before he was chosen to be the #2? Not many, I'd wager.

                    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                    by HoosierD42 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 05:56:14 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Yours is an echo chamber perspective (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, bumiputera, sacman701

                      Yes, "keynote at the DNC" still leaves you "completely unknown."  It doesn't help except among political activists and journalists, and even most of them have only a passing familiarity and don't view him as having the stature of a VP jumping right from the San Antonio Mayor's job.

                      It's a mistake political junkies always make to think that things like keynoting the DNC helps in any way with ordinary voters.  Few watch the keynote, many who watch don't really know who that guy is talking, and many who know or learn his name and job still forget very quickly and won't remember him later if his name comes up again.

                      Castro is generating a little bit of name rec with some activists, and "little bit" and "some" are important terms there.  That's still completely unknown to almost everyone, given that "some activists" is a very tiny universe.

                      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 08:46:21 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  My only point (0+ / 0-)

                        Was that people might recognize his name from keynoting. Therefore keeping him from being completely unknown. I was not arguing that he would have widespread name recognition as you seem to think I was arguing. So please keep your condescension under your hat.

                        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                        by HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 01:56:54 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

              •  All true. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                wwmiv

                But at the same time she ought to do better among East Texas whites than Obama did as well. I mean, that goes for almost any white candidate.

                Supposing she gets 75% of hispanics, while also juicing tunout so that they make up, say, 24% of the electorate... she'd need to win about 30% of whites to win. That's what Bill White got in 2010, or so sayeth the exit polls. That would be really, really tough, but not inconceivable... at any rate, that 47% number as a realistic ceiling sounds about right to me, and would probably be lower against Rubio or Bush.

              •  So she wouldn't roll back anything? (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I don't expect her to win many counties, but could they vote more for her than they did for Gore, Kerry, and Obama?

                "Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game." -Voltaire

                by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 06:13:38 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Definitely not more than Gore (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  wwmiv, MichaelNY

                  I think Kerry numbers are doable.  Gore not so much; the region has trended too far.

                  20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                  politicohen.com
                  Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                  UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                  by jncca on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 08:31:45 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

      •  Hey, here's a flashback. (6+ / 0-)

        Here:

        Giuliani portrayed himself as the candidate who could beat Hillary Clinton in the general election by being competitive in traditional blue states such as New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware.[21] A May 10, 2007 Quinnipiac University Polling Institute poll put Giuliani ahead of Hillary Clinton, 48% to 42% in Connecticut.[22].
        Since everyone knows who Rudy Giuliani is, he obviously has a high floor in etc.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:51:43 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  And that was (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Skaje, R30A, ArkDem14

        2007, not 2005.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:54:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  It's obviously worth noting (0+ / 0-)

        I assume you didn't click through the link, as the point about Perry is trivia.  She leads Rubio and Christie.

        It is big fucking news.  Of course campaigns matter, but the willingness of this amount of people to voice support of a Dem against very well known candidates is something that has not happened in TX for at least 20 years.

        And for me personally, we know a much more progressive agenda can win the Presidency so we don't need New Demy conservativeish Clinton wing of the party to take the Presidency again.  However, if we could generate a cakewalk and making TX, TN, KY, MO, etc, to move ten points back in our direction, I'd be willing to live with the warmed over oatmeal agenda a lot better.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 12:27:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  No, I'll repeat it's not (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, Chachy, MichaelNY

          take a look at the data and there is not a statistically significant correlation between polling this far out or even a year out and the final election result across the past several election cycles to any worthwhile degree.

          Just look at what Xenocrypt posted about Giuliani and you should get an idea of what I mean.  Once Clinton has to start campaigning and being a partisan Democrat, these right-leaning voters who have a favorable opinion of her will be reminded that she doesn't match up with them ideologically and will stop expressing support for her in polls.  The same thing happened with Giuliani and I bet you $100 dollars (or babka) that it would happen to Clinton.

          The only way she wins states like Texas is if she's winning in a 1984 style blowout and that just isn't going to happen without a roaring economy.  The only way we would possibly improve a ridiculous amount in places like Texas (which is R+9) is if we run a local candidate with a home state effect or a Hispanic candidate who can massively turnout previously unlikely voters and that simply will not happen in 2016.

          •  Again, your logic collapses when mentioning Rudy (0+ / 0-)

            It's obvious Rudy's circumstances were nearly the exact opposite of Clinton's.  Of course don't already are fully aware she is a "partisan Democrat".  Her positions are known to people already... and what you don't seem to be considering is these numbers are also based partly on wanting to return to the Bill Clinton presidency status quo.  People already know what that is like.  Most people assume Hillary's views/actions/politics will be largely similar to Bill's.  

            Also, both Bill and Hillary have been polling 60%+ in favorable/unfavorable polling when it is done.  Don't just ignore that.  Those 60%+ numbers then get reflected in the head to head polling we are seeing.

            As for polling this far out being not being predictave, you need to rethink that as Mitt's Wyoming numbers vs Obama in 2009 were in fact predictave.  Polling this far out is usually very predictative with fully formed choices.  In fact the general election "poll" of 2008 was very predictative of the 2012 election.

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 12:53:08 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Just looking at the Texas poll (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Skaje, MichaelNY

              if you extrapolate that and other states like KY out to nationally Clinton would be winning by close to 20 points and that simply will not happen.  We're also not going to have a massive realignment of those states with Clinton vs. Rubio/Christie or whoever and as such it's just impossible for her to actually win them barring a 20 point blowout.

              As such I think it's pretty reasonable to say that her numbers now significantly overestimate the support she would get in November of 2016 and I stand by that assertion. I'm not disagreeing that she'd be a strong candidate, but her polling strength right now is illusory.

    •  Talk about burying the lead (10+ / 0-)

      Clinton also leads Rubio by 1 and Christie by 2

      Just a refresher, Clinton leads Rand Paul by 5 and Rubio by 8 in KY.

      Really REALLY hope she runs in 2016.

      Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

      by Daman09 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:17:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  None of these would hold up at all (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

        Hillary would lose these states by double-digits.  Texas would budge slightly in a Dem direction only if demographics push that result.

        White conservatives will all end up voting for the Republican nominee for President.  Virtually none will peel off for a Democrat for the big job, when it's actually time to vote and not just give impulsive answers to a call center employee's questions about an election as far away as imagineable.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:04:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Also 35% of Republicans support succession (3+ / 0-)
      •  secession (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, MichaelNY

        I'd assume 90%+ of Republicans support our current succession laws (although I don't understand why President Pro Tem is in the line of succession, but that's another story)

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:29:19 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Hillary Clinton may win Texas (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, MichaelNY

      if she runs for president.  But I think it would only happen if she is winning nationally by like 15 points.  Nobody really expects Texas' PVI to swing considerably our way in 2016, regardless of our nominee.  Maybe a little bit, but there's no way Clinton could be winning Texas if only winning nationally by high single digits, unless some realignment makes the blue states redder.  Otherwise, a Clinton victory in Texas will correlate with a massive national landslide.

      So all these polls are telling me is that Hillary Clinton starts out favored for a national landslide, as long as she can maintain her insanely high approval ratings.  Should those decline over the course of a campaign, Texas will vanish as a possibility (as will Kentucky, West Virginia, and probably Arkansas), and she will be focusing on winning Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Florida and the other crucial swing states of the past two elections.

      •  Same for Rudy in 2007? (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stephen Wolf, Skaje, jncca, MichaelNY

        Rudy dropped from 52/37 in November 2007 to 45/44 in January of 2008.  Two months!  After what looks like years of a net favorability rating in the 10-20 range.  According to, yes, Gallup.

        They don't break it down, but my strong suspicion is that Democrats and Dem-leaning "independents" started turning against Rudy as the campaign went on and he had to talk and act like a Republican and say Republican things and take Republican issue positions.  And my strong suspicion is that the same thing will happen to Clinton, should she run.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 12:18:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Honestly. (6+ / 0-)

          How are we expecting Republican-leaning voters to decide?  "Sure, she's a Democrat, and she's for carbon regulation and she's for higher taxes and she's pro-choice and all that, but I just respect the hell out of how she handled that diplomatic situation four to eight years ago"?  (How many people could even name something like that?  This isn't to impugn HRC--it's just that I don't really follow international stuff--but I don't think I could name a single thing she's done as Secretary of State.)

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

          by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 12:24:07 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's a great point. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I need to find it, but someone somewhere recently noted that we tend to emphasize things like miles traveled and countries visited for the SOS because actual lasting diplomatic achievements are few and far between.

            One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

            by AUBoy2007 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 12:36:49 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  That's not even what I'm saying. (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              politicalmetrics, gabjoh, MichaelNY

              Rather, I have no idea how to evaluate her tenure as SoS--it might have been great, it might have been lousy--I have no idea.  And that's because I don't really follow international politics, but I doubt too many other people do, either.

              27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

              by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 12:54:24 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Rudy's situation is nothing like Clinton's (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DownstateDemocrat, itskevin

          Rudy's politics and personal life were virtually unknown to most of the country when he was running simply as the 911 Mayor.

          In contrast, Clinton had a full campaign in every single state in 2008, and has been in the limelight since then.  There is very, very little that is unknown about her these days.

          Clinton today is really pretty unique in the modern history of American politics... she is a fully formed candidate now where people have made up their minds about her and there are no unknown policy ideas or (probably) scandals in the closet.

          This is not like polling Rudy, or Ashley Judd, or the 2011 Trump boomlet.  People know virtually everything about Clinton now that they will know three and a half years from now.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 12:39:58 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  She's more popular than she used to be, right? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            So where's the evidence that now people have made up their minds about her?  Is she more famous now than in 2007?

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 12:43:33 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  She's been incredibly famous for 20 years. (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DCCyclone, jncca, gabjoh, MichaelNY, AUBoy2007

            And over that time, she's still gotten more popular and gotten less popular. Do you think that's people learning about and then forgetting about or changing their minds about her policy ideas?  Or do you think it's because she's been in different contexts?

            She was super-popular during the Lewinsky scandal.  She was less popular as a Democratic Senator from NYC, but still popular.  When she campaigned for President, her popularity went down to about parity.  When she became Secretary of State, she became super-popular again.  

            So why should we be so confident that she'll stay super-popular should the context change again--should she run for President again?

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 12:47:48 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, I don't really see (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            GoUBears, sacman701, itskevin

            much logic in the argument that Hillary's approvals will tank when she announces a run for President.

            First off, she would probably clear the Democratic field if she did.  I know some people like Biden and Cuomo are "testing the waters" and appear to be gearing up for a run, but in the end, if Hillary runs, I don't think they will.  She wouldn't have a tough Democratic primary and wouldn't have debates like the ones that did so much damage to Republican candidates last year.

            Secondly, Hillary has more experience in politics than just about anyone in America, by now.  She's seen everything.  She will know how to handle a campaign.

            Thirdly, Rudy's a weirdo.  His campaign strategy sucked.  You can't compare the two.

            •  Her approvals don't matter, what matters is... (6+ / 0-)

              ...white conservatives will end up voting for the Republican nominee, period.  Any polling that says Hillary or any other Democrat would peel off anything more than a trivial number of them is worthless.

              People will give all kinds of crazy answers when having to answer spontaneously to telephone survey questions about an election years away that they don't give a flying fuck about as their kids scream and dogs bark in the background.  If you polled Rick Perry vs. "Mickey Mouse," probably way over 30% of Texans would pick Mickey.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:08:42 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  I don't think Hillary would clear the field (0+ / 0-)

              She didn't in 2008, either, remember?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 07:26:47 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  She was also not nearly as popular as she is now. (0+ / 0-)

                20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

                by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 07:37:08 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yet all the conventional wisdom (0+ / 0-)

                  was that she was the inevitable primary winner, before the primaries and caucuses started.

                  An open seat for President is a big deal. I will be surprised if she is the only person running on the Democratic side.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 07:40:54 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I think that "conventional wisdom" (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    infected her 2007-08 campaign somewhat, leading many to treat it almost as a coronation and the nomination as a near-entitlement.  I'm pretty sure she and her team won't make that mistake a second time.

                    Furthermore, while there are a number of other promising candidates, none of the other potential 2016 contenders yet seems to have the compelling persona, speaking skill, broad vision, and history-making appeal that Obama showed which helped make him an instantly strong candidate despite a then-relatively short resume.

                    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                    by Mike in MD on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 07:51:56 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

              •  I'd expect something similar to 2000 (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Hillary=Gore
                O'Malley=Bill Bradley

                20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                by jncca on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 08:32:11 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Could be (0+ / 0-)

                  And do you think those will be the only candidates?

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 09:32:39 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  If Hillary runs, yes (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    No other NY candidate will run.  O'Malley and Cuomo are the two I'd say are most likely to run, but Cuomo is a New Yorker.  Schweitzer, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, and Biden would all probably stay out; other than Biden all seem interested, but none seem itching to run.  There's also the chance health sidelines Hillary and she doesn't run for re-election (or she loses her initial election).

                    Schweitzer would likely be considered for VP, especially if Hillary's advisers want to re-create her husband's coalition (a bad idea in my opinion, but her advisers sucked last time) and wouldn't want to run against Hillary.

                    Hickenlooper wouldn't leave office until 2018, so he'd still be fresh for a 2020 run if Hillary retires/loses in 2016.  Klobuchar would still be in the Senate, so she'd be fine as well.  Biden might pull the trigger anyway, but he seems like too much of a team player.  O'Malley by 2020 would've been six years out of office and old news, so 2016 is his only shot.

                    20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                    politicohen.com
                    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                    by jncca on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 10:17:35 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  O'Malley (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, jncca

                      Could run for Senate after Mikulski retires as an alternative.

                      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                      by wwmiv on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 10:40:04 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  I think there's a typo here (0+ / 0-)

                      Please explain:

                      Schweitzer would likely be considered for VP, especially if Hillary's advisers want to re-create her husband's coalition (a bad idea in my opinion, but her advisers sucked last time) and wouldn't want to run against Hillary.
                      I'm guessing you mean, wouldn't want to run against Schweitzer, right?

                      I think Schweitzer would be an excellent running mate, but regardless of what anyone does, no Democrat will be as strong in the Deep South as Bill Clinton was. They aren't going to win states like TN or LA unless it's a truly brutal blowout. I do think Hillary, because she's still a Clinton, might have a ghost of a chance in AR, and could possibly run a close race in MO, but I would be surprised if she really competes in WV, given its hard right turn in presidential elections. GA might be conceivable.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:20:53 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  No... (0+ / 0-)

                        Schweitzer wouldn't want to run against Hillary. Not Schweitzer "wouldn't want to run against Schweitzer" like you've said. That makes no sense...

                        :P

                        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                        by wwmiv on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:47:51 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  OK, it's missing a comma (2+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          Audrid, bumiputera

                          Consider the following two sentences, minus the parentheses:

                          Schweitzer would likely be considered for VP, especially if Hillary's advisers want to re-create her husband's coalition and wouldn't want to run against Hillary.
                          Schweitzer would likely be considered for VP, especially if Hillary's advisers want to re-create her husband's coalition, and wouldn't want to run against Hillary.
                          For want of a clarifying second comma, I failed to understand the post.

                          Now, on the substance, I don't think running against someone in the primaries makes you particularly unlikely to be picked for VP. Some recent cases in point: Biden, George HW Bush.

                          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                          by MichaelNY on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 01:36:32 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

      •  well I would expect Clinton to massively improve (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        nonsensoleum

        over Obama in WD 40 territory.

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:42:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I sort of wonder if Markey's web troubles (7+ / 0-)

    have anything to do with the vast amount of information he used to have on his site. In addition to a fairly extensive site, he also had over 1300 news articles archived (while they're gone now, you can still get to them through cached images). I wonder if his staff is still sifting through those for quality control or other issues.

    ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

    by GoUBears on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:19:59 AM PST

  •  Geraldo Rivera thinking about opening (13+ / 0-)

    Al Capone's vault again.  Only this time in the form of running for the Senate in New Jersey.

    http://thehill.com/...

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:26:51 AM PST

  •  NC-Sen: The first Republican entered the race. (6+ / 0-)

    A some dude named Greg Brannon. What I found equally funny and ridiculous was this little gem:

    Some strategists suggested that choosing a female nominee, like Ellmers or Foxx, could help chip away at Hagan’s gender advantage; she won 55 percent of the female vote in 2008, according to CNN exit polls.

    “Virginia Foxx is somebody that you cannot outwork,” North Carolina political analyst John Davis said. He added that “all of them have unique strengths.”

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 11:57:39 AM PST

  •  MNGOP (9+ / 0-)

    Last night a bunch of political insiders and party leaders gathered for their pre-meeting. It was labeled "where do we go from here?" I was not personally in attendance, but an acquaintance of mine went and said it was not a positive enqvironment. Although it was mentioned that if the big meeting next month has the same kind of attendees, Paulites could easily nominate a chairman of their choosing, if such a candidate exists.y money is still on Downey to take over the reigns.

    •  We can hope that the Minnesota (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen

      GOP remains divided and ineffective heading into 2014. That way Democrats have better shots at targetting MN-02 and MN-03, and Franken is less vulnerable.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 05:08:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Right now i am not worried about Franken (4+ / 0-)

        Also, I give the odds of unseating either Paulsen or Kline at nearly zero. I would say exactly zero, but there is always LBDG stuff. These seats won't be in play until either of them retire.

        •  Paulsen's seat is one (0+ / 0-)

          of the most Democratic still held by a Republican. Democrats only lost it in 2008 because they were dumb enough to nominate Ashwin Madia who for some reason had netroots support because he was young and charismatic and outsidery (State Senator Terri Bonoff probably would have won and is much more progressive than Madia).

          I still think Madia could give Paulsen the race for his life. He's not exactly entrenched, and I don't get why that should be the prevailing opinion. He's also much more conservative than Ramstad, who is more the model of the type of GOPer who could hold this seat.

          MN-02 I listed because of a potential retirement.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 09:41:38 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'm confused (0+ / 0-)

            You think Madia or Bonoff could give Paulsen the race of his life?

            Also, why do you think Bonoff would have won in 2008? I think Paulsen is just popular. Some politicians are like that, like Chet Edwards, who didn't lose until there was a huge wave against Democrats, and Jim Matheson, who's still going. Or, for that matter, Jim Gerlach.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 09:47:08 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  He wasn't popular in 2008 (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, ArkDem14

              More to the point he wasn't well-known enough to be popular. He won with a 48.8% plurality in 2008, and less than 30k votes.

              It's certainly possible that someone with a wider base of support like Bonoff could have made that up in the election of a generation that 2008 was.

              24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

              by HoosierD42 on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 02:00:59 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  I meant Bonoff (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              My silly mind was putting out the wrong names last night. Paulsen is not that popular, he just hasn't had a real opponent in two cycles, and in 2008 he had plenty of baggage related to being Pawlenty's floor leader and his conservatism.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 08:56:01 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  Couple points (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          First, Paulsen is very much entrenched, and like it or not he is popular. He represents an ancestrally Republican,  very wealthy district. And he is the quiet bookworm type of politician that does very well on this area. Also, MN-3 got more Republican by the addition of blood red Chanhassen, Paulsen made odd like a bandit in redistricting. And yea, he represents something like a 51% Obama 12 district, but he is completely safe in it, much as Peterson is 100% safe in his much more Republican district. Its just a fact of life. And lastly, Bonoff is wayyyyy to skittish to challenge Paulsen. She is perhaps the most cautious politician I have ever met. The reality is we are going to have to wait for Paulsen to retire, unfortunately.

          •  Even though much of this (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            district is steadily trending Democratic?

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 08:57:19 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  IA Sen (9+ / 0-)

    http://conservativeintel.com/...

    Braley leads King 39-34
    Latham leads Braley 36-33
    In a two way King leads Latham 46-29.

     If others such as Vander Platts run then Latham has a chance to slip through with the clown car effect. Obviously this isn't the best poll, or from the best source, still some interesting data early on.

    •  Oh and hat tip RRH. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, MichaelNY
    •  Conservative pollster? (4+ / 0-)

      Not bad if so.

      •  The poll is just as bad as the 2012 GOP polls... (8+ / 0-)

        ...that were all incorrectly skewed toward Mitt and other Repugs.

        The sample is nonsense.

        And still King is underwater in favorables and trails Braley by mid-single digits.

        But what I like, and what doesn't have to be distorted by the poll's flaws, is the GOP primary results with King leading every iteration.  That is awesome if he runs and really is the frontrunner...not something I would assume up front without hard evidence.

        Braley vs. King is an easy Dem hold.

        And King's seat is tough but winnable with the right Dem and wrong GOPer.

        I don't think we'll see both Latham and King run, they won't both give up seats.  But if they do, all the better!

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:12:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  King's seat (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          I think it's not winnable. If the Democrats couldn't defeat King, who is the "wrong Republican"? Almost any other Republican candidate would be less nutty-sounding, and the district has an obvious Republican lean.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 07:31:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  We win districts tougher than that one (0+ / 0-)

            We have seats that are more conservative than the current IA-04.  The old IA-05 that King held was safe R, the new IA-04 is not close to that.

            Vilsack did a bad job.  There's no excuse for not having done better, even if that meant only losing more narrowly, against a lunatic like King in that district, with a Democratic President carrying the state comfortably.

            And regarding "any other" GOPer besides King, under normal circumstances I'd agree with you regarding who would be the nominee, but really in today's GOP all bets are off, and it's clear the crazies can always win.  If King really is the frontrunner for the GOP nod statewide, then a nutbag easily can win the IA-04 GOP nod when the district is clearly more conservative than the state.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 08:51:01 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Latham may get the "Tommy Thompson treatment" (0+ / 0-)

      That's the term I will use to describe the clown car effect in which a well-known political figure with crossover appeal runs for higher office or attempts a return to politics and draws several primary challengers who have more of a conservative reputation than him/her, but wins the primary with considerably less than 50%+1 of the vote, allowing the other party's nominee, who faced a much less bruising primary battle (if not unopposed in the primary altogether), to win unexpectedly.

      I have a feeling that the 2014 IA-Sen race is going to look a lot like the 2012 WI-Sen race.

      Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

      by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:31:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  CO Lt. Gov a top choice to become Labor Secretary (4+ / 0-)

    link

    Lt. Gov Joe Garcia was a college president before Hickenlooper choose his to be part of his gubernatorial ticket.

    Given his background, he might be better as Education Secretary or even to succeed fellow Coloradoan Ken Salazar as Interior Secretary.

    Anyone know how Lt. Gov vacancy is replaced in CO?

  •  You heard it here first (12+ / 0-)

    Next week will be my last week at DGA. I've had an amazing time and I think we had a very good cycle in which I was proud to play my part.

    I'll have a bit of time to write more here while I figure out what's next for me (got a couple interesting opportunities in the works). I've called DC my home base for almost 5 years now and am ready to get back on the campaign trail.

    Thanks to this community for all your support.

    Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

    by Bharat on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:41:11 PM PST

  •  question about Southwest Missouri (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    is that area similar to East Tennessee in that it if one goes back 50+ years ago (or even 15-20) the area politically sticks out like a sore thumb and whose political allegiances stem from the area's historic dislike for the confederacy?

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 04:09:50 PM PST

  •  Need your help (0+ / 0-)

    Paulie was the cousin of a friend of mine who had recently moved to Madison.  He came home drunk and confused,  entered the neighbors house attempting to go home and the Police were called.  Paul had no weapons and no history of violence, he was just drunk and confused, so a Madison police officer shot him dead claiming a very drunk man 40 founds lighter and untrained in fighting reached for his gun so he had to shoot Paulie dead to defend himself.

    This petition showed up in my mail box this afternoon and I am asking any DKE members who read my postings toconsider signing this petition.  I know this isn't election related, but we are united in fighting injustice and Paulie's unnecessary death is exactly the type of situation that screams for justice.  This story is so sad......

    http://www.change.org/...

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 04:54:36 PM PST

  •  Matt Mead supported the domestic partnerships bill (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, HoosierD42, jncca
  •  Three words for Stephen Lynch (and Scott Brown) (4+ / 0-)

    BRING. IT. ON.

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 05:57:51 PM PST

  •  Rep. Donald Payne Jr.'s kickass bowtie (10+ / 0-)

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 06:00:27 PM PST

  •  WI-Gov: JOHN DOE ALERT (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Graeme Zielinski, the communications director of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, has tweeted that breaking news regarding the ongoing John Doe probe in Wisconsin is "coming".

    Quite frankly, I'm not sure what that means in Zielinski-speak.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 06:21:31 PM PST

  •  Did something happen to Taegan Goddard's... (0+ / 0-)

    ...political wire?  It's no longer listed at the Roll Call politics site.  Did the two entities have some sort of falling out?

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 06:37:31 PM PST

  •  Another update on Scott Walker defense fund (0+ / 0-)

    The Wisconsin progressive blog Blue Cheddar has gone up with this post about Walker depositing $40,000 into his criminal defense fund. The noteworthy thing here is that the author of the blog post believes that there may be a busier than usual "Friday news dump" in Wisconsin tomorrow.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 08:55:02 PM PST

    •  enough. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, HoosierD42

      You clearly don't know how to take a hint.  This isn't a blog solely dedicated to tracking the John Doe case.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 10:19:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  we'll finally have some big news (0+ / 0-)

    in Oregon for 2014 this month.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 09:22:57 PM PST

  •  It Has Begun: MI same-sex marriage initiative (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KingofSpades, bythesea

    A Grand Rapids group is the first to start a push to get same-sex marriage here on the ballot in 2014:

    Grand Rapids group wants gay marriage proposal on Michigan's 2014 ballot

    GRAND RAPIDS, MI – A Grand Rapids-based group has formed to put a gay marriage proposal up for a statewide vote in November 2014. Marriage Michigan PAC aims to collect more than 300,000 signatures to get a same-sex marriage initiative on the Michigan ballot, and raise $10 million to help it pass.

    The time is ripe to push for gay marriage given the backlash over right to work and other lame-duck legislation passed by the Republican-led Michigan Legislature, said Chris Surfus, co-founder and president of the organization.

    “We believe that public outrage in Lansing and statewide will allow us not only to get a Democratic governor, but we believe we’ll also be able to legalize same-sex marriage,” said Surfus, a gay man and Grand Valley State University student.

    However, this is already another advocacy group sitting this one out:
    Equality Michigan, the state's largest LGBT advocacy group, which is based in Detroit, is working on public education campaigns in advance of a possible same-sex marriage ballot measure in 2016, said Emily Dievendorf, policy director. She described the Grand Rapids initiative as a small, regional effort that “is working independently as of right now."

    “We would love for Michigan citizens to get on board (with our long-term advocacy effort). It would be a fatal flaw to make an independent or regional effort," Dievendorf said.

    "2014 is just too soon for (a ballot proposal). Most of the state doesn’t even know the rights that LGBT citizens lack. There just wouldn’t be the kind of support necessary to pay for such an effort (in 2014)."

    •  my heart says 2014 (0+ / 0-)

      but my head says 2016.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 12:29:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think we can win next year in MI (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        The state only banned it with 58% in 2004.  That was on the low end for how that year went.  I have no doubt a majority of the state's population supports marriage equality now.  Turnout is a question, but if things keep going like they are in Michigan, local Democrats may have the advantage there.

        •  The only trouble (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          The only trouble I see is that Equality Michigan didn't just not stay quiet, but kind of came out against the nascent Grand Rapids movement.  That's going to have a dappening effect on organization, no doubt.  

          Yeah, I have no doubt a majority of the state's population support same sex marriage.  Poll after poll has shown a comfortable cushion of support.  But, turnout is always key in these things and you can never take that for granted.

          I say more power ot the little Grand Rapids group if they want to try.  If they get the 300,000 signatures, Equality Michigan won't have any choice but to join in, IMO.

  •  Scott Brown's choice to chair the MA GOP won (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Kirsten Hughes became MA GOP chair on a 41-39 vote on the second ballot. Apparently, it was a drawn out process and there was confusion about the first ballot tally.

    link

    Hughes was an aide on Brown's Senate campaign. Dont know what affect this has, if any, on a potential Senate bid for Brown.

  •  MI Right-to-Work Challenge (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KingofSpades

    Well,

    A day or two after Gov. Snyder directly petitioned the conservative-dominated Michigan Supreme Court to rule on the constitutionality of major parts of his Right-to-Work law, a well-organized opposition has now filed in a (friendly) local circuit court in Ingham County to challenge the law from another angle: The Open Meetings Act

    ACLU, labor groups sue to block Michigan right-to-work law

    Lansing — A beefed-up lawsuit filed Thursday by labor unions and the ACLU of Michigan is the latest legal attempt to roadblock implementing Michigan's right-to-work law that takes effect in less than two months.

    The amended lawsuit filed in Ingham County Circuit Court alleges the Michigan State Police's decision to temporarily lock protesters out of the Capitol during the Dec. 6 debate on right to work was a violation of the Open Meetings Act, the First Amendment and state constitutional protections for peaceful assembly.

    The plaintiffs want a judge to invalidate the right-to-work laws for public- and private sector employees that curtail union power and prohibit requiring financial support of a labor union as a condition of employment.

    While unions are going on the offensive to stop the right-to-work laws from going into effect March 27, Gov. Rick Snyder asked the Michigan Supreme Court to consider the constitutionality of the laws in a bid to stave off protracted court battles with organized labor.

    Looks like it's going to be a race to see rules first, though Snyder has the advantage of having taken this to the state supreme court who can shut down - or at least gum up - the lower challenge at any time, essentially.

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