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9:40 AM PT: Bqhatevwr.

9:53 AM PT: Special Elections: A Texas state Senate special election nearly snuck past us, on account of it being held on a Saturday. But Johnny, as ever, has the results:

Texas SD-06: This is an open Democratic seat in Houston where the previous incumbent, Mario Gallegos died before Election Day last year, necessitating a do-over. Eight candidates ran—four Democrats, two Republicans, a Green, and an independent—but six of them might as well not have bothered, because Saturday's open primary was a battle between former Harris County Commissioner Sylvia Garcia and State Rep. Carol Alvarado, who won 45 percent and 42 percent, respectively. A distant, distant third was Republican R. W. Bray, who ran for this seat in 2012 and pulled in 29 percent; this time he only managed 6 percent. Garcia and Alvarado will go to a runoff sometime in the next month or so.
Senate seats in Texas are a big deal: There are only 31 members in the chamber, which makes senatorial districts larger that congressional districts, a rare phenomenon. And in a state as populous as Texas, that means each senator represents a lot of people.

10:08 AM PT: CO-Sen: Second-term Rep. Cory Gardner may be at the top of GOP wishlists to take on freshman Sen. Mark Udall, but when asked if he plans to run, Gardner recently said: "I have no timetable, I'm not in a hurry to decide." What's more, Abby Livingston adds that local Republicans don't think he'll do it, citing his quick rise in the House leadership, and they're fretting that they might really be left with no one to challenge Udall. There are other possibilities—ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez, state Attorney General John Suthers, and state Treasurer Walker Stapleton, for example—but just the other day, another candidate (Rep. Mike Coffman) said no, and the picture isn't looking particularly bright for the GOP.

10:22 AM PT: CO-06: The DCCC is hard at work recruiting in Colorado's 6th, where GOP Rep. Mike Coffman lucked his way to a win last year in this 52-47 Obama district. We'd already heard about their efforts to woo former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff; now it turns out that they've also met with another local politico, ex-state Rep. Karen Middleton, about a possible run as well. Middleton is speaking openly about her interest, though she hasn't offered a timetable for a decision. Though in a new interview, she said: "I feel like having a woman in this race is really important," pointing out that only one member of Colorado's current congressional delegation is a woman.

P.S. Since leaving the legislature in 2010, Middleton has run the group Emerge America, which is dedicated to encouraging women to run for office. Interestingly, this is the same organization that another possible Democratic House recruit—Erin Bilbray-Kohn in NV-03—has also been involved with.

10:32 AM PT: KY-Sen: Does it really count as a ratfuck if you tell everyone what you're doing? A new report in Politico says that Democrats are telling tea party forces in Kentucky that they'll open their wallets to help conservatives knock off GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell in a primary. Of course, we'll see if anything actually happens. No potential candidates have stepped forward (and several have declined), and you can't beat something with nothing. What's more, tea partiers have proven themselves to be impotent on the campaign trail when not backed by large sums of outside money, usually from the likes of the Club for Growth. Of course, if Dems want to play the role of the CfG here, I'm all for it, but maybe we shouldn't go around announcing our intentions so loudly.

10:48 AM PT: MA-Sen: While I thought Gov. Deval Patrick was waiting to announce the dates of a Senate special election until after John Kerry was confirmed as Secretary of State, the Massachusetts Secretary of State, William Galvin, has gone ahead and scheduled them (apparently in consultation with Patrick). The primary will take place April 30, and the general will be conducted on June 25.

11:43 AM PT: NJ-Gov: Well, it looks like it's going to be state Sen. Barbara Buono for the Dems. State Senate President Stephen Sweeney, who contemplated a run for governor but never seemed particularly interested, announced on Monday that he would not enter the race. Meanwhile, PolitickerNJ reports (according to unnamed sources) that Rep. Bill Pascrell won't run either, though Pascrell has messed with us repeatedly on this score before.

And finally, Rep. Frank Pallone endorsed Buono on Monday as well. While Pallone is apparently interested in the Senate race and not the governor's mansion (the deliciously named Drumthwacket), I suspect he might have held off on lending his support to Buono if it looked like any other major players were about to enter the contest. But it really does appear we're at the end of the line.

And on that note, I encourage you to read another great Steve Kornacki piece, this one titled: "Exit everyman: How the Jersey Democratic bosses destroyed Dick Codey and unleashed Chris Christie." Kornacki's lede wastes no time:

They won't say it publicly, but there is fear, genuine fear, among New Jersey Democrats that this year's gubernatorial election will produce a Republican landslide not seen since the Tom Kean-era, threatening Democratic control of the legislature and key county offices.
These fears have percolated up a little bit recently in other reports, but Kornacki gives them their fullest airing. But as you can see based on the fascinating thesis expounded in the headline—obsessed with Jon Corzine's cash, New Jersey Dems shoved the much more likeable Codey aside, setting up Corzine's fateful loss to Christie in 2009—it sounds like Dems at least partly have themselves to blame for this state of affairs.

12:02 PM PT (David Jarman): House: Here's some fascinating historical data that speaks to the increased polarization of the House, courtesy of Larry Sabato: there are only 25 "crossover districts" this year in the House (either ones that went R at the presidential level but elected a D Representative, or vice versa), with 9 Dems in Romney districts and 16 GOPers in Obama districts. That contrasts with 83 crossover districts in 2008, 111 in 1996, and 196 in 1984!

There are any number of moving parts in this decline -- increasingly skillful gerrymandering, thanks to better computing power and better data-gathering, and increasing mobility leading to increasing self-sorting (liberals gravitating toward cities, conservatives white-flighting out of cities and suburbs to the exurbs or staying put in rural areas) -- but more than anything, to me, this seems to point to a slow but steady decline in split-ticket voting. When the Dems used to be able to routinely elect conservaDems in dozens of red districts, that easily kept them in power, but as that trend has fallen off in the last couple decades, that hurts their hold on the House (as you can see in this Monkey Cage scatterplot of House popular votes vs. number of seats from November: you can see how the last decade's results are all the negative outliers on the curve). That's not to absolve gerrymandering from its role in helping cement the GOP majority, but it's more the icing on the cake.

12:21 PM PT: NV-03: After meeting with the DCCC, activist and DNC committee member Erin Bilbray-Kohn is now publicly confirming she's interested in running against sophomore GOP Rep. Joe Heck—and in fact says she's leaning "toward doing it." (The linked article adds she "might" make up her mind "in another month or so.") One thing stood out to me, though: Following initial reports that Democrats were recruiting Bilbray-Kohn, Republicans predictably sent out an email trashing her as a Harry Reid pawn. But according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal, "Bilbray-Kohn said she was surprised at the warning shot." Surprised? Really? I hope that's a mischaracterization.

12:29 PM PT: PA-Gov: Once upon a time (two short years ago), we learned about an obscure candidate in South Florida who had the amusingly common name of Patrick Murphy—and we promptly dubbed him "no, not that" Patrick Murphy to distinguish him from the former Pennsylvania congressman and netroots hero with the same moniker. But "that" Patrick Murphy (whom we still love, don't get me wrong) subsequently lost a primary for state attorney general, while "not that" Patrick Murphy shocked the world by unseating Allen West in a difficult district and now sits in Congress himself. So it may be time to swap epithets, or come up with new nickname, though Pennsylvania's Patrick Murphy (PPM?) will probably take a break from the political scene for a while. Indeed, he says he's "absolutely not" running for governor next year. But don't worry, PPM: We're eagerly awaiting your next move, whenever it comes.

12:40 PM PT: NY-24: Sometimes a former congressman who loses a bid for re-election is the strongest possible candidate to try to win that same seat back. Take, for example, Dem Rep. Dan Maffei, who did just that in November after getting beaten in 2010. Sometimes, though, the exact opposite is the case. Take, for example, GOP ex-Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle, whom Maffei turfed out last year to retake his seat. After winning a surprise squeaker in a wave year, then winding up in a much bluer district, Buerkle's only response was to amp up her extreme conservatism, which helped Maffei ice her by five points, even as a Green Party spoiler took a whopping 8 percent.

Anyhow, I'm amused at the notion that Buerkle is considering a comeback, since she almost certainly is incapable of any kind of makeover. And seeing as Obama's actually expanded his margin in 2012, to a hefty 57-41, I doubt this seat is going to make any serious GOP target lists.

12:51 PM PT: NY-Gov: Heh. I almost forgot that Republicans need to find a candidate to get manslaughtered by Andrew Cuomo in next year's gubernatorial election. Obviously, they won't get anyone worth a damn, in large part because they have no one worth a damn, but one guy who's maybe worth a quarter-damn is saying no anyway. That would be freshman Rep. Chris Collins, who barely knocked off Democrat Kathy Hochul last year in a district baldly gerrymandered to be much redder by federal judges who acted as willing scribes for Common Cause. Collins, though, has a ton of personal wealth and would at least be attractive to the GOP for that reason alone. But no dice—he's not dumb enough to give up a safe seat in Congress for a suicide mission.

1:18 PM PT: NYC Mayor: The New York City mayoral race features a weird combination of absolutely certainty over who the candidates in the Democratic primary are, combined with the fact that basically no one has formally announced—or has even been willing to talk about their aims on the record. That changed on Saturday, when Public Advocate Bill De Blasio at long last launched his campaign (not counting 2009 nominee Bill Thompson's brief statement a few years ago that he'd run a second time). But City Council Speaker Christine Quinn and Comptroller John Liu still haven't made their bids official, and Thompson hasn't held a formal kickoff. Everyone was probably waiting until after last year's presidential election, but yo, that was three months ago.

P.S. De Blas was joined in his announcement by his wife and his 15-year-old son Dante, who himself made what was apparently a good speech—and also drew raves for his "stupendous Afro." Click through, because the kid can seriously rock it. Dante 4 Council, 2021!

1:22 PM PT: Demographics: Here's a cool animated GIF of demographic changes in Chicago, on a ward-by-ward level, over the last hundred years.

1:53 PM PT: VA-10, VA-St. Sen: Hahahah. So we all know that former Democrat, former congressman, and former Alabama native Artur Davis last year started floating the possibility of making a comeback bid for the House—in Virginia, as a Republican. Initially, Artur, who has reinvented himself as a concern troll for the Democratic Party, had eyed a matchup against Dem Rep. Gerry Connolly in the 11th. But as part of their new gerrymander, the Virginia GOP packed that district to make surrounding seats safer for their own party, turning the 11th safely blue. So now, instead, Davis is reportedly eyeing a run in the adjacent 10th, but supposedly says he would not pull the trigger unless the current GOP incumbent, Frank Wolf, decides to retire.

In a further bit of amusing chutzpah (and patheticness), Davis is also said to be looking at a run for state Senate, which is a pretty amazing climb-down for someone who was a top DCCC official just a few short years ago and even ran for governor in 2010. What makes this so tragicomic, though, is that Davis's shot might come only if the GOP goes through with its underhanded mid-decade redistricting effort—an effort that only became possible because Republicans took advantage of the absence of a black senator who was celebrating the inauguration of the nation's first black president, on Martin Luther King Day, which may all run afoul of the Voting Rights Act anyway, which of course was originally passed to protect the rights of black voters. So, yeah.

And speaking of douchenozzles, get a load of GOP state Sen. Emmet Hanger. A key change in the new Republican map involves mashing up one Democratic district and one Republican district (to make neighboring seats redder, just as described above with the congressional lines), and the lucky GOP victim was Hanger... who nevertheless went along with his political immolation and voted in favor of the plan. I suppose you can grudgingly admire a guy for falling on his sword for the good of his party, but not this schmuck:

Hanger said he was troubled by how he and his fellow Republicans pushed through their proposal — by waiting for a day when a Democratic senator in the evenly-split chamber was absent.

As it turned out, that happened on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, when a civil rights attorney, Sen. Henry Marsh, was absent to attend the inauguration.

While Hanger said that bothered him, he still voted with his caucus against a Democratic motion to hold the bill until a day when all senators were present.

Why? "I have asked myself that question," Hanger said.

So this piece of work supported a map that would force him to run against a Democratic senator (2009 gubernatorial nominee Creigh Deeds, as it happens), even though he thought the way in which the legislation was brought to a vote was troubling. Yeah, keep asking yourself that question, bub.

2:24 PM PT: SC-Gov: While there may be enough Republican discontent to fuel a primary challenge to freshman Gov. Nikki Haley, I tend to think that's unlikely. So it's unsurprising to me that state Treasurer Curtis Loftis, who was first elected just a couple of years ago, says he won't challenge Haley and will instead seek re-election in 2014.

2:45 PM PT: LA-Gov: Weird—but I've seen weirder. GOP Sen. David Vitter has set up some new fundraising vehicles, including both a federal super PAC and a state-level organization. The former isn't especially interesting, since it would merely be of help to him if he chose to run for re-election in 2016. But the latter is a bit more intriguing, since Vitter may be prepping for a gubernatorial bid in 2015, when Bobby Jindal is term-limited out. Gov. David Vitter. Amazing.

2:50 PM PT: NE-Gov: Respectable—if he follows through: GOP state Sen. Charlie Janssen only first started publicly mooting a run for governor last month but says he doesn't want to drag things out. So he's promising a decision by the end of February. I hope Janssen keeps his word, and it'd be nice if all politicians adopted reasonable, public timetables instead of keeping people guessing.

3:05 PM PT: Meanwhile, McConnell has some ugly new re-elect numbers, according to a poll taken for the Louisville-based Courier-Journal by SurveyUSA. Part of it is the way the question is framed: Respondents were asked whether they plan to vote for McConnell "no matter who runs against him," against McConnell (same conditions), or whether "I will need to see who runs against McConnell before I know how I will vote." Only 17 percent said they were definitely pro-Mitch, while 34 percent said anti- and 44 percent said they wanted to wait and see. I sort of don't like that phrasing because there's too much social pressure to pick door no. 3 (I mean, what kind of partisan hack are you, right???), but I still wouldn't like those numbers if I were McC.

3:26 PM PT: GA-Sen: Following GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss's retirement announcement on Friday, the Great Mentioner has, predictably, kicked into high gear. In addition to the big list we worked up over the weekend, Roll Call suggests a new trio of GOP names: Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle, Secretary of State Brian Kemp, and state Attorney General Sam Olens. And plugged-in local analyst Jim Galloway suggests one more Republican: Sonny Perdue.

Meanwhile, former Democratic Rep. Jim Marshall has taken himself out of the running, though the same piece suggests that ex-Gov. Roy Barnes could make a go of it. However, Barnes just had the misfortunate to attempt a comeback as governor in 2010—right candidate, wrong year—and I'd be surprised if he were ready to saddle up again, especially since he's now 64.

3:49 PM PT: IA-Sen: Dem Rep. Bruce Braley had long been tagged as a likely successor to Sen. Tom Harkin, so it's no surprise that he's potentially interested in a bid to replace the state's junior senator. Braley said in a statement on Sunday that he "will carefully weigh a possible candidacy" but didn't offer a timetable. He also (quite recently) refused to rule out a gubernatorial bid, but this open seat is an infinitely more attractive option.

Meanwhile, on the Great Mentioner front, the Des Moines Register also suggests former Govs. Chet Culver and Tom Vilsack, as well as former Iowa first lady Christie Vilsack, could run. Culver has also been weighing a run for governor, but his father, John Culver, served one term in the Senate back in the `70s, before losing to Chuck Grassley. Tom Vilsack just committed to another four years as Agriculture Secretary in the Obama administration, so it might be awkward for him to wriggle out of that, while his wife lost a bruising campaign for House in Iowa's 4th Congressional District just last year.

As for the GOP, in addition to Reps. Tom Latham and Steve King, other possibilities include Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds, former state party chair Matt Strawn, and state Ag. Sec'y Bill Northey. Reynolds isn't ruling it out, but her boss, Gov. Terry Branstad, quickly put the kibosh on any notion that he himself might run. State Sen. Brad Zaun is also looking at the race, though he might prefer to run for Latham's House seat if Latham makes a bid. (Zaun, you may recall, unsuccessfully ran against then-Rep. Leonard Boswell in the old 3rd District in 2010; Latham beat Boswell in the new version of the 3rd last year.)

And as far as downballot reshuffling goes, well, it could get pretty intense. In a piece published a few days before Harkin's retirement announcement, the DMR offered a ton of speculation about candidates in both parties who could run for various House seats (including Latham's and Braley's), as well as gubernatorial possibilities as well. But we'll hold off on going nuts over this stuff unless and until folks higher up the food chain start making announcements. Until then, well, life's too short!

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 06:00:08 AM PST

  •  NJ Gov: Looks like Steve Sweeney's not running (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, jj32, betelgeux

    http://www.politickernj.com/...

    Barbara Buono may have the field to herself.

  •  Immigration Reform: Can it pass? (8+ / 0-)

    Which really means: can it get through the insane assylum U.S. House of Representatives?

  •  Thoughts on NJ-05? (5+ / 0-)

    Congressional district encompassing New Jersey's northern tier, from conservative Sussex and Warren counties in the west to NYC-adjacent Bergen County in the west. Got bluer in redistricting, taking in portions of heavily Democratic (and relatively diverse) central Bergen County (my partial childhood home, extending from the wealthy, fiscally conservative north of the county.) (Although some of the bluer parts of Sussex and Warren counties were taken out.)

    Current congressman Scott Garrett, who's the most conservative Republican north or east of PA (is this as indisputably true as it was pre 2010/2012?). Tea party before tea party was cool, pretty sure he has the views to run with King, Bachmann, the best of them. Not super charismatic from what I hear. But out of a combination of skill and luck, he's managed to remain pretty quiet, though I feel there's a chance that could change if he faces a tough challenge.

    Vaccinate your child. Vaccinate yourself. | Pro-transit, pro-gun, anti-NRA young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

    by gabjoh on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 06:50:23 AM PST

  •  Giving a heads up on my next diaries (6+ / 0-)

    Im gonna be writing about Saxby Chambliss and the Georgia senate that should be today, and later this week will do my senate analysis for '14.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

    by BKGyptian89 on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 07:32:13 AM PST

  •  KY-Sen: Democrats, Tea Party unite vs. McConnell (4+ / 0-)
    Big Democratic donors, local liberal activists and a left-leaning super PAC in Kentucky are telling tea partiers that they are poised to throw financial and organizational support behind a right-wing candidate should one try to defeat the powerful GOP leader in a 2014 primary fight.

    The idea: Soften up McConnell and make him vulnerable in a general election in Kentucky, where Democrats still maintain a voter registration advantage. Or better yet, in their eyes: Watch Kentucky GOP primary voters nominate the 2014 version of Todd Akin or Richard Mourdock, weak candidates who may actually lose.

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/...

    26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 08:21:56 AM PST

  •  NJ Gov: Buono may have nomination wrapped up (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    terjeanderson, MichaelNY

    First, as I noted above, Steve Sweeney is out.

    http://www.bluejersey.com/...

    Now word is that the remaining possibility, Bill Pascrell, and other North Jersey heavyweights, are about to endorse Buono.

    http://www.politickernj.com/...

    •  I don't like this for one reason... (0+ / 0-)

      Christie will get real practice in debating a woman and how to not come off as a insufferable, condescending bully.

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 08:50:17 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  What? (4+ / 0-)

        Do you mean for an eventual Christie/Clinton match up?  Because I seriously doubt Christie makes it through a GOP Presidential primary.

        I don't care who is picked, but I am glad it seems like New Jersey dems are coming together early on this one.  No need to drag it out.  Christie is going to be a bear to beat, but it would be even worse if the Democratic nominee had to waste time with a primary battle.

        One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

        by AUBoy2007 on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 08:55:18 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah. Christie vs Clinton (0+ / 0-)

          Debating a woman is tricky - and Christie would be getting real practice and feedback without any real threat of losing.  

          I hope Buono goes on the attack highlighting Christies policy decisions and tries to de-politicize Sandy which Christie is getting WAY too much bipartisan support for his handling.  He did what anybody would have done - that's nothing to brag about or worthy of giving him the election in a landslide.

          "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

          by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 09:04:10 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  absolutely (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          AUBoy2007, MichaelNY

          because it doesn't matter how moderate he actually is.  What's important is that he seems like a moderate.  That's enough to stop him in a primary.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 09:34:31 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I dont know what to think of Christie's chances (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          in a GOP primary.

          I similarly thought he wouldnt have much of a chance. I previously said that Charlie Crist was basically kicked out of the party for less.

          But Christie will have two full years after re-election to move to the right, before the primary season starts. And he is fundamentally pretty conservative. He rejected a state run healthcare exchange the day he went to the WH to ask for Sandy relief funds.  

      •  If he needs the practice (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AUBoy2007, MichaelNY

        Then it isn't going to help. Either you behave like a grown-up, or you don't. I don't think you can learn that.

        Not that I think it matters - Clinton isn't exactly easy to bully.

        Besides, if he does come across as a bully it'll push his negatives up, which might at least reduce his coattails.

    •  Offical: Pascrell out (5+ / 0-)

      Passaic, Bergen and Hudson chairs back Buono.

      http://www.politickernj.com/...

  •  well, David's drunk. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AUBoy2007, Danny Ricci

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 09:52:33 AM PST

  •  I (0+ / 0-)

    was flipping through the CBC's (Canadian Broadcasting Corporation) archives and found a video of the convention where Paul Martin was proclaimed Liberal Leader and Prime Minister in 2004. All I can say is I wish conventions here in the US were just as exciting.

    http://www.cbc.ca/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 09:54:01 AM PST

  •  CO-SEN: I think Suthers would be the strongest (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, betelgeux, ArkDem14

    candidate. I was a little surprised he didnt run in 2010. I think he would have easily defeated Bennet. I dont know that he would beat Udall but I think he would be a better candidate than Rep. Gardner or the others mentioned.

    •  My guess is that he (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      betelgeux

      didn't want to go up against Jane Norton.

      But of course, the Tea Party wanted nothing to do with a "libtard" like Norton!

      •  Suthers is probably waiting to run for Governor. (0+ / 0-)

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 01:32:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't know. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          Suthers would be 68 if he wanted to run for Governor (assuming he isn't going to run against Hickenlooper).  Still He'd be 64 if he ran against Udall next year.  

          There was also some innuendo about a misdeed when he was US Attorney that came out in 2010 when he was running for re-election.  It didn't get far, but if he ran for higher office, it might.

          http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

          If you listen to fools, the Mob Rules

          by CO Democrat on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 08:58:31 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Anyone see the Obama-Clinton interview? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Was it worth seeing?

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 10:18:16 AM PST

  •  MA Sen: I guess June 25 is better than July 2 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, KingofSpades, betelgeux

    or July 9.

  •  With Kerry's confirmation almost done... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Adam B, betelgeux

    It also means Gov Patrick will have to name the temporary replacement that will serve in the senate for the next five months.  

    Barney Frank has been VERY quiet the last few weeks.  With Kirk taking his name out, Frank is the only possibility that makes any sense unless the Dem Senate Caucus and WH are looking for a rubber stamp and no waves/drama out of the interim appointee.  

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 11:08:28 AM PST

  •  MA-SEN: Markey wants to revive the pact (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Marcus Graly, KingofSpades, betelgeux

    on outside ads that Brown and Warren agreed to last year.

    link.

    Smart move on Markey's part. But I guess you cold argue neither Markey nor Brown really need outside ads. Brown's campaign will largely focus on his personal favorables, and so it probably doesnt help him to have any national conservative/GOP groups running ads on his behalf.

    And Markey has/will have enough money to run as many ads as he needs.

    •  Interesting. Can Brown not accept? (4+ / 0-)

      It will leave him handcuffed if he does, because he'd need outside groups to bloody up Markey while Brown would stay above the fray - Brown was hurt more than Warren when he went negative against her.  

      But if he doesn't it will draw more focus to who is doing his smearing for him - Rove and Koch's - and then how could Brown play the independent Republican when he's using hyper-partisan ideologues to sling mud for him?  And given he was the one who proposed it in 2012, turning it down now would be newsworthy, and not in a good way for Brown.  

      Also, smartly,  this really limits what Lynch could do given Markey's warchest advantage and the establishment basically shutting off the Dem fundraising spigot to him.  

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 11:35:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Yet again (5+ / 0-)

    Boy Scouts considering an end to their ban on gay members and leaders.

    I swear we just went through this already within the past couple years, with the BSA very publicly considering the same thing and then deciding not to.  I guess some board members keep pushing.  It's probably inevitable.  No other major organization in the country so prominently excludes LGBT Americans, and there seems to have been a real shift in attitudes in just the past couple years.

    •  This follows (4+ / 0-)

      a troop being threatened with expulsion this past weekend for putting a non-discrimination phrase on their website, which read:

      Pact 442 WILL NOT discriminate against any individual or family based on race, religion, national origin, ability, or sexual orientation
      I didn't think there was any way for the BSA to generate even worse headlines for themselves but they keep finding ways.

      Anyway, excuse the non-electoral nature of all this.  I spent 6 years with the Boy Scouts, making it up to the rank right before Eagle before quitting in disgust, so it's somewhat of a personal issue to me.  I had a lot of good memories with the organization, but I just couldn't handle the force-fed Christianity and discrimination anymore.  It was my hope that within a decade afterwards the BSA would join the 21st century, but that hasn't happened yet.

      •  You made it up to Life Scout? (0+ / 0-)

        Was the disgust over LGBT discrimination?

        I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

        by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 12:22:08 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yup Life Scout (4+ / 0-)

          The LGBT discrimination was just a part.  It just tied in with my feeling like I was being forced to believe in their particular brand of conservative Christianity.  At that age, I was questioning a lot of things I had been brought up to believe, and religion was top among them.  The fact that nonsensical discrimination against gay scouts and scoutmasters seemed to follow from that just soured me on the whole thing even more.  It just became obvious to me that I didn't want to be a part of the BSA anymore.  I appreciated the skills I had learned, and I remember being genuinely proud of my abilities in the wilderness, the leadership positions I had reached, and my membership in the order of the arrow.  I had been starting the process of becoming an Eagle Scout when I decided to quit, and they told me I'd regret leaving before attaining the final rank.

          I don't.

          •  I felt the same way. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Skaje, gabjoh

            The Christian angle was quite hard, but I coped by reciting Hebrew prayer instead of what the rest were saying during the mornings of camping trips and at special events.

            I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

            by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 01:19:57 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  You see, my troop (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, gabjoh

              Didn't bother with the religious stuff at all. My only experience with religion and scouts was at summer camp, they had one multi-denominational chapel service a week (which had Chirstian, Jewish, Hindu and Muslim components, as well as occasionally other flavors), but on our regular camping trips we never did anything with that. I don't think we even had a Chaplin, and I know as a fact that at least 2 SPLs during my tenure in the troop were Atheists.

              •  Eagle here (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sacman701

                My troop never did anything remotely religious. I don't even remember reciting a prayer during my years in scouts. My troop was a suburban one, though, and the scoutmasters were mostly lawyers and businessmen who viewed reaching the Eagle Rank and developing as a leader in the process as the most important parts of scouting. No one, meaning both the leaders and the scouts, was in it for religious purposes.

                Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

                by IllinoyedR on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 04:59:50 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  As an Eagle Scout, I sure hope so. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, BeloitDem, itskevin

      In my troop, both scout masters that I had did not enforce this rule.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 12:21:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  PA-GOV (7+ / 0-)

    Original Recipe Patrick Murphy is "absolutely not" running, not that I thought he was.  But I guess there were rumors.

  •  What the eff does Lindsey Graham think he is doing (8+ / 0-)

    Only a year away from his defeat in the SC primary and he's co-authoring this "amnesty" bill?  Three possibilities

    a) he wants to go down in a landslide

    b) he is delusional

    c) he knows this will doom him, but he couldn't say no to an opportunity to spend time with John McCain

    •  Who knows? (4+ / 0-)

      The hatebaggers already call him "Lindsey Grahamnesty" (among other things).

      And if he loses, who cares?  I know he'll most likely be replaced by whoever primaries him, but we'll still be rid of Warmongering Gomer Pyle.

    •  Demint retiring saved Graham... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      Both senate seats will be up in 2014 as a result, which in the very least splits the potential primary field and you have to figure any top potential challenger would go after the appointed Scott versus the long time Senator with very likely a big warchest from the MIC in Graham.  

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 12:10:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Does it include some variety of real amnesty? (0+ / 0-)

      Besides, some Republicans will pout over him anyway.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 12:19:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  it doesn't need to (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem

        they'll call it that anyway.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 12:24:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I know, but does it? (0+ / 0-)

          I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

          by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 12:35:34 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, basically it does (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, itskevin, LordMike

            Or at least what conservatives will probably think of as amnesty.

            Watching the press conference today with some of the senators(Graham not there, McCain read a statement from him).

            Schumer said undocumented immigrants would pretty much instantly get legal status if they came forward, paid a fine, paid back taxes, and cleared a background check. Some uncertainty after that how they become permanent residents and then citizens, but Schumer said they would quickly get some legal status and wouldnt have to fear deportation.  

            Graham also voted for the fiscal cliff that every Republican in the SC House delegation opposed(including Tim Scott).

  •  Fears of loss of NJ legislature way overblown (12+ / 0-)

    People think back to 1985 when Tom Kean won 70% of the vote and the Republicans captured the Assembly (they didn't capture the Senate only because it wasn't up that year).  But things are dramatically different now in the state.  Consider:

    Kean was personally popular.  Not an often alienating figure like Christie.

    There is no way Chrisite can get 70% because the state is more Democratic than it was in 1985.  Then, it had voted Republican in 5 straight presidential elections.  It has now voted Democratic in 6 straight presidential elections.

    Perhaps most importantly the Democrats' legislative map was adopted in 2011.  The districts are gerrymandered in the Democrats favor.  While the Republicans can certainly pick up seats, it's highly unlikely they could get enough to win back either house of the legislature, especially the Assembly.

  •  Kornacki's article (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    redrelic17, ArkDem14, BeloitDem, JBraden

    Pretty much spot on.  He does leave out how they had the chance to dump Corzine in '09 for Codey, who would have won.  But Corzine dithered too long and by the time he supposedly offered to Codey to drop out, in the summer, the long knives were out for Codey.

    The power brokers in the state party are not only corrupt, but they're contented to sit on their hands rather than support a Democratic candidate who might threaten their fiefdom.

    •  Indeed that's true (0+ / 0-)

      They'd also rather maintain their urban based political machines, than open up the party to many of the suburban voters who might vote Democratic for President, but not much else.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 01:35:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Rassmussen poll: Dems +8 on generic congressional (7+ / 0-)

    Generic Congressional Ballot (Rasmussen)

    Democrats 45
    Republicans 37

    Link to tweet

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 12:36:16 PM PST

    •  Almost too good to be true! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat, bythesea, JBraden

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 12:38:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  heh (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, ArkDem14, JBraden

        I doubt the Dems will win the total House vote by 8 seeing as they just won by 1 in a presidential year, but if Ras says they're up 8 they probably have a lead, which would mean that few of their incumbents will be in any trouble.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 01:07:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I've been thinking about 2014 (8+ / 0-)

          and I really have a hard time imagining a scenario in which it's a bad year for us (unless the economy tanks, of course, but that's looking less and less likely)

          1.  Obama's tenure so far, electorally, is almost a mirror image of Clinton's.  What happened in 1998?  Democrats gained seats.

          2. Democrats can't do anything that would "get them in trouble" - I know this may be disappointing to some Democrats, who would like to see big liberal legislation passed, but since the opposition party has to approve everything we pass, they can't run against us

          3. Tea Party anger goes towards the Republicans, not Democrats.  Democrats were in charge of everything in 2010.  Now, if we do anything that upsets the teabaggers, we'll have to get Republican votes to do it.  When they retaliate, they'll go for their own first, and the party will tear itself apart.  There's a chance that the Tea Party could calm down significantly, but there will still be plenty of right wing anger with Immigration reform "amnesty" (likely to be passed) and whatever meager gun control bill gets passed.

          •  You can't really compare 2014 and 1998 (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            BeloitDem, jncca, tk421, James Allen

            because 1998 was completely overshadowed by the impeachment issue.  I don't think we can look to 1998 for lessons about 2014 (unless they try to impeach Obama...).

            One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

            by AUBoy2007 on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 01:31:21 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Paging Steve Stockman... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Skaje
            •  You never know (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              They may bring up impeachment over Benghazi.

              But in all seriousness, you are right, I was mistakenly thinking most of the scandal took place after the 1998 elections.  Still, I think Democrats have a good chance to gain a few seats in the House in 2014.

              •  I think it'll be a wash, maybe a (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen

                few (two or three) in either direction.  There just aren't that many places for either side to attack.

                One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

                by AUBoy2007 on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 02:28:07 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I say we go for Paul Ryan's seat (3+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY, JBraden

                  Despite how often he wins big, his district isn't all that Republican (R+3). His Democratic opponent who was underfunded and ignored by the DC establishment kept Ryan to his smallest margin ever. With a decent candidate, such as State Sen. John Lehman (ICYMI he knocked off Van Wangaard in the 2012 recall that Scott Walker survived and gave us a one-seat majority in that chamber for a few months), we could at least give him enough of a scare to draw huge amounts of cash away from other seats. And if we do win, just imagine how insanely delicious that would be!

                  Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

                  by interstate73 on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 04:55:42 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Some other potential opponents to Ryan (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, Audrid

                    Kelly Albrecht, a native of Burlington in Racine County, was listed on Emerge Wisconsin's 2013 list of rising female stars in Wisconsin politics, and may also consider a run against Ryan.

                    Another potential candidate is state assemblyman Andy Jorgensen, who would probably be the second-strongest opponent to Ryan. I'm not sure if Jorgensen actually lives in WI-1, as he carpetbagged into a state assembly district, WI-AD-43, that partially overlaps with WI-1, WI-2, and WI-5, however, Jorgensen worked in the former Janesville GM plant prior to entering politics, so he should be able to avoid carpetbagging allegations.

                    I think John Lehman would probably run for WI-1, though, as his state senate district is, barring unforeseen circumstances, completely unwinnable for Democrats now thanks to redistricting (going from a swing district to a heavily-Republican district), and Lehman is probably the strongest candidate we could run against Ryan.

                    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

                    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 07:23:36 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

            •  1998 is certainly similar to 2014 (0+ / 0-)

              but without impeachment (and Clinton's corresponding douchebag behavior) it makes 2014 more favorable to Dems.

              The more important dissimilarity is the Senate races are different.

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 02:20:05 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  More favorable? I don't think so. (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BeloitDem, MichaelNY

                Everything I've read suggests it was the unpopular push for impeachment that allowed the Dems to gain seats in the House (but not even control of the House) as opposed to losing seat which would be expected in a normal second term mid-term.

                One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

                by AUBoy2007 on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 02:26:34 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Not hardly (0+ / 0-)

                  Clinton was an albatross around all the Dems' necks much moreso than impeachment was to the Reps.

                  In terms of national mood toward the President, Obama would have to stick his dick in the toaster for it to be worse in 2014 than it was in 1998.  

                  Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                  by tommypaine on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 04:03:48 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  No offense, but how old are you? (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    wwmiv
                  •  This is totally against (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    BeloitDem, MichaelNY, AUBoy2007

                    Almost every piece of literature written about that era, just fyi. You're totally wrong. 2014's chances at being a 1998 are almost zilch.

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 05:19:22 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  LOL, what? (0+ / 0-)

                      Clinton didn't even campaign for Gore even in 2000, Gore would not let him campaign even in Arkansas!

                      Where are you getting this stuff?  Clinton was unwelcome basically everywhere in 1998 and 2000.

                      Seriously, do you young 'uns not know this stuff?

                      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                      by tommypaine on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 05:40:56 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Are you kidding? (5+ / 0-)

                        Gore made a very huge tactical error in refusing to let Clinton campaign with him.

                        Yes, Clinton was not the most popular guy personally, but he had great job approvals and he was damned well revered in contrast to Republicans. That's why the Democrats did so well in 1998, along with a good economy.

                        Forget about personally popular in this instance and think about the bigger picture. Clinton was popular, but just like most popular people in high school was also hated by alot of people.

                        Obama is not going to be able to recreate those conditions for 2014, hence that it will not be a repeat of 1998.

                        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                        by wwmiv on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 06:19:01 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  You're just inventing a new reality (0+ / 0-)

                          Start here
                          http://www.telegraph.co.uk/...

                          Gore's "tactical error" was certainly not the mainstream view at the time.  And, even Clinton never contended that the tactical error was not using clinton, but rather not running on the successes of the Clinto presidency.

                          I guess people who didn't live through the time don't get what was obvious at the time: Clinton's presidency was wildly popular; Clinton as a human being was not.  Check out this nice summary from Gallup on this point:
                          http://www.gallup.com/...

                          Dems did well in 1998 because the country was doing well, not because Clinton was loved and Rep impeachers were loathed.  That simply false.  As the Gallup article points out, the public agreed with the Republican charges, though not the solution.

                          2014's most obvious parallel is 1998.  There isn't any question in that it sure isn't 1966 or 1950 or 1938.  2014 is different though since the economy (probably will be) worse and Obama has neither the same flaws or the same advantages as Clinton.  There is no doubt though that Democrats in 2013 personally like Obama more than Dems in 1998 personally liked Clinton's lying ass.

                          It's pure fiction that Clinton helped significantly in 1998.  He could barely leave the White House.  As always, it was the economy, the economy, and the economy that real voters based their views on, not blowjobs or denying blowjobs or impeachment over blowjobs.

                          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                          by tommypaine on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 06:34:17 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  It was obvious to me at the time (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            BeloitDem, The Caped Composer

                            Gore had to embrace the legacy of Clinton. That was his only hope. Although he should have been allowed to claim his victory, anyway.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 07:14:44 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  just because the media parrots a given line (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            does not mean that the electorate bought it. the pundits didn't see 1998 coming because they were convinced that their own DC bubble was the nation.

                          •  Wow (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            AUBoy2007, MichaelNY

                            Even you admit that I'm right:

                            Clinton's presidency was wildly popular; Clinton as a human being was not.  Check out this nice summary from Gallup on this point:
                            I just draw completely different conclusions because of the academic literature on the subject, whereas you're relying on news sources which parrot official lines.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Tue Jan 29, 2013 at 05:03:48 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                •  Just out of curiousity (0+ / 0-)

                  Is there even one thoughtful piece of writing that makes a case that "the unpopular push for impeachment" was what "allowed the Dems to gain seats in the House" and not the great economy and happiness with Clinton's policies?

                  It's hard to believe that anyone over the age of thirty would actually write something like that.

                  Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                  by tommypaine on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 06:43:43 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  this comment is like a parody (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, PassionateJus, AUBoy2007

                    yes there is more than one, in fact, that seems to be the consensus.  I don't agree with wwmiv's statement indicating that any other explanation is wrong, but its certainly the general consensus that it was Republican overreach.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 06:57:17 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Of course it was overreach (0+ / 0-)

                      That isn't in dispute, or the point.

                      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                      by tommypaine on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 09:01:35 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Lots of things matter politically to some degree (0+ / 0-)

                        but to assert impeachment was the issue that drove the bulk of voters' actions in 1998 rather than the economy (and overall state of the nation) is fiction.

                        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                        by tommypaine on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 09:08:07 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Fiction? (0+ / 0-)

                          Prove it! Everyone understood that it was a backlash against the impeachment. The fact that the economy was doing well served to underscore the wrongness of the impeachment to the electorate. I don't think you can separate the positive feelings about the economy with the anger over the impeachment of the president the voters felt made that economy possible.

                          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                          by MichaelNY on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 09:55:10 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  if it's fiction (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          its one that the majority of commentators agree on.  That doesn't make it true, of course.

                          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                          by James Allen on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 11:09:05 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

          •  It may still be too early to tell (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY, JBraden

            1. The key thing in 1998 was the R's overeached. The increase polarization is now having a decent effect. The Dems in the house have only a handful of seats that Romney won. Meaning even if 2014 was a R friendly year the GOP won't make many gains in the house as they are already pretty maxed out. Now for the senate things look tougher for the Dems as they have a huge number of seats to defend, so even in a neutral or Dem leaning year we could potentially lose a few there.

            2. Well it's mainly on the Dems in unsafe territory that would be worried about voting on legislation that would get them in trouble.I believe there more of those Dems in the senate than are in the house right now.

            3. Indeed and there is still hope that the tea-party can screw over a safe R seat and give it to us on a silver platter.

            In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

            by lordpet8 on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 03:07:46 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Who? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, itskevin

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 12:49:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Prelude (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, lordpet8

      Is this a base point from which Scotty can say Democrats are loading ground?

    •  This way (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, lordpet8, itskevin

      they can have Republicans "catching up" later this year.

      I don't trust a single thing about Rasmussen polling.  It all seems to be about expectation-setting.

  •  PA-Gov, love Patrick Murphy but he should run for (3+ / 0-)

    either his old seat or look into going up against Pat "Chicken Hawk" Toomey in 2016.  With Toomey voting for all of Dubya's war spending when he was in the House but voted against troops who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Murphy being an Iraq War Veteran, Murphy and PA Dems could have a field day attacking Toomey on this issue.  Right now, I think Treasurer Rob McCord is our best candidate for Governor.

    Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

    by poopdogcomedy on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 12:37:25 PM PST

    •  Isn't Fitzpatrick (0+ / 0-)

      In the only Obama '08/Romney '12 district in the country?

      Nonetheless, he's still vulnerable.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 03:25:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  No, it's the only Kerry/Romney district (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, jncca, HoosierD42, James Allen

        There are plenty of Obama'08/Romney'12 districts, particularly in the midwest.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 03:31:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Gotcha, I knew that didn't sound right. (0+ / 0-)

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 04:59:15 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Let's see. (4+ / 0-)

            We have numbers for 385 districts, of which Obama won 207 in 2008.

            Of these, he lost 30 in 2012.

            Uniform national swing would accurately predict that he'd lose these 19:

            CA-25    McKeon, Buck
            CA-49    Issa, Darrell
            FL-18    Murphy, Patrick
            IL-14    Hultgren, Randy
            IL-16    Kinzinger, Adam
            IN-02    Walorski, Jackie
            MI-01    Benishek, Dan
            MI-03    Amash, Justin
            MI-04    Camp, David
            MI-11    Bentivolio, Kerry
            NE-02    Terry, Lee
            NV-02    Amodei, Mark
            NY-22    Hanna, Richard
            NY-23    Reed, Tom
            OH-10    Turner, Michael
            PA-16    Pitts, Joe
            VA-10    Wolf, Frank
            WI-01    Ryan, Paul
            WI-06    Petri, Tom
            While these 11 were "surprise" losses that uniform national swing would predict he'd win:
            IL-06    Roskam, Peter
            IL-13    Davis, Rodney
            MI-06    Upton, Fred
            MI-07    Walberg, Tim
            MI-08    Rogers, Mike J.
            PA-06    Gerlach, Jim
            PA-08    Fitzpatrick, Michael
            PA-15    Dent, Charlie
            WA-03    Herrera Beutler, Jaime
            WI-07    Duffy, Sean
            WI-08    Ribble, Reid
            Meanwhile, he won these 4 seats in 2008, and uniform national swing would predict he'd lose them, but he won them again:
            CA-10    Denham, Jeff
            CA-36    Ruiz, Raul
            MN-02    Kline, John
            VA-02    Rigell, Scott
            Finally, of course, he lose these 3 seats in 2008, and of course uniform national swing would predict he'd lose them again, but he won:
            FL-26    Garcia, Joe
            FL-27    Ros-Lehtinen, Ileana
            NY-11    Grimm, Michael
            A great many of the "surprise" losses were indeed Midwestern, but Obama also lost a number of other seats that you'd expect someone to lose who went from 53.7% of the vote to 52% of the vote.

            The biggest "miss" for an Obama loss is probably either WI-08 and PA-08, where Obama got around 54% of the two-party vote last time.  NY-11 is probably the biggest "miss" for an Obama win.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 05:25:45 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Mike Fitzpatrick (0+ / 0-)

        Mike Fitzpatrick won Bucks County in 2004, 2006, 2010, and 2012. He lost in 2006 because of his slice of NE Philly and his arm into Willow Grove, not because he lost Bucks. Plus, Fitzpatrick's slice of upper MontCo slightly more than makes up for Obama's ~4,500 vote margin in Bucks County, meaning that the parts they added to the district are very, very red. Kathy Boockvar fundraised pretty well and had the Inquirer's endorsement and Fitzpatrick got to 57%, meaning he ran about 8 points ahead of Mitt Romney.

        Lower Bucks dominates the Democratic primary electorate in PA-08 and its unionist tradition certainly doesn't produce candidates that play well in Upper Bucks (and upper MontCo, for that matter).

        The Democratic bench in Bucks County is extremely thin. Whom exactly could beat Fitzpatrick, in your opinion? I've been on the ground in Bucks and know plenty of folks from there and Mike Fitzpatrick is extremely popular in that county. I just can't imagine a situation where he loses this decade.

        Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

        by IllinoyedR on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 05:06:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I can (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          but it requires a 2006 or 2008 style wave again. It'd be a Tossup in a year like that.  But we aren't going to win it in 2014 short of a massive GOP screwup.

          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 05:25:55 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Hmm (0+ / 0-)

            If he didn't lose Bucks in 2006 and has a ruby red part of MontCo instead of blue parts of MontCo and NE Philly, and if he's more entrenched than he was as a freshman, why would the race be a toss up? I just get the feeling Fitzpatrick's started to settle in.

            Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

            by IllinoyedR on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 05:32:44 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Ron Johnson, always finding new and creative ways (5+ / 0-)

    to embarrass my state.

    http://www.motherjones.com/...

    •  The embarassment you feel (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JBraden

      when some people don't realize that books like Atlas Shrugged and Animal Farm, were indictments against STALINISM, not socialism, social democracy, yadayadayada.  Heck, George Orwell was a Trotskyist early on and a social democrat for the rest of his life.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 01:10:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Atlas Shrugged (6+ / 0-)

        Totally was a critique of Democratic Socialism, Social Democracy, liberal pluralism, and pretty much any system besides Laissez-Faire capitalism. It was also more or less an adolescent fantasy with no connection to reality.

        •  Yeah, but written by someone who (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje

          lived under Stalin's rule and believed religion to also be a disgusting form of solidarity.

          Ironically, much of what I learned about her views I learned from the Bioshock video game series.

          I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

          by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 01:21:57 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Atlas Shrugged isn't just about Stalinism (7+ / 0-)

        Ayn Rand was a nutcase.

        Animal Farm is an entirely different matter. Much as he was a bit of a concern troll later in life, Orwell is on record as stating that "everything I write is in the cause of democratic socialism."

        Though I don't think he was actually a Trotskyist. He fought as part of a POUM militia in the Spanish civil war, but whilst the POUM were Trotskyist Orwell was only part of that militia because he was in the ILP, which had a loose fraternal arrangement with the POUM. The ILP was a fairly mainstream socialist grouping.

        •  You're right. (0+ / 0-)

          What I should have said is that Stalinism twisted Rand's view of liberal democracy in general.  George Orwell, on the other hand, was definitely against just Stalinism and fascism.

          I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

          by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 01:31:45 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Ayn Rand in public school (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Was Ayn Rand required reading in your public school English classes.  She was in some of the classes in my Miami, FL high school.  For some reason, I never wound up in an English class that required Rand, but I'd see other kids carrying around "The Fountainhead" and "Atlas Shrugged" all the time.  I've never read either.  So I just naively assumed both were literary classics because English classes used them; nowadays I hear people compare the books to L. Ron Hubbard novels.

          •  heck no. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I've never heard of them being required reading in high school.  Or anything.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 06:21:22 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  There was a scholarship (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            like $10,000 or something, pretty good money, if you read one of those books and wrote an essay and sent it to the Objectivist HQ. That got a lot of people at my high school reading those books but I'm not sure anyone even finished.

            28, Male, MA-07 (hometown MI-06)

            by bumiputera on Tue Jan 29, 2013 at 04:29:29 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  orwell was an anarchist, he fought with them (0+ / 0-)

          in spain. his hatred of stalinism came from their betrayal of the anarchists in the spanish civil war.

          •  He was mostly a democratic socialist (0+ / 0-)

            as I understand.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Tue Jan 29, 2013 at 12:17:40 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  read "homage to catalonia" (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              he's pretty unambiguously aligned with the anarchists during that part of his life. of course, one can explain anarchism as a logical outcome of the values of socialism and democracy, so this may be splitting hairs.

          •  He was very definitely not an anarchist (3+ / 0-)

            Homage to Catalonia is sympathetic to the anarchist militias, but that doesn't mean Orwell was an anarchist. It means he wasn't keen on the Stalinists murdering the anarchists mid-war. His background was the Fabians, who have always been far too statist to be considered anarchists.

            •  Actually (0+ / 0-)

              He remarked that his personal preference would have been to fight with the Spanish anarchists. This indicates his sympathies were close to an endorsement, if he would have preferred to fight with them over all the other factions in Spain.

              He fought with the P.O.U.M., the anti-Stalinist communist group, but thought it would have been better to have aligned with anarchists.

              "In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

              by ZhenRen on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 12:02:51 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  That's not what it means (0+ / 0-)

                The reason Orwell wanted to fight with the anarchist militias were because they were the best-organised and most heavily engaged in warfare. He wanted to be involved in the group that fought the Falange the hardest. That doesn't equate to support for the anarchist position, and the remedies books like The Road to Wigan Pier suggests are not the social remedies an anarchist would choose.

                •  Okay (0+ / 0-)

                  The misinformation surrounding the Spanish Civil War and the role of the anarchists has been so deliberately muddled by the Stalinists, the Marxists, and the capitalists, as well as the press during those times, that few people seem have an accurate understanding of what the anarchists accomplished in that war.

                  I don't mind at all if Orwell preferred statist socialism, rather than anarchist socialism, although that isn't my personal point of view. He definitely made several comments which were clearly sympathetic to the Spanish anarchists throughout A Homage To Catalonia.

                  And there were apparently periods in his life when he called himself an anarchist, according to some histories, although some say he later turned to a statist form of socialism. None of this seems very clear to me, but I'm glad he at least  found the accomplishments of the Spanish anarchists worth his admiration, even if he preferred another approach.

                  If he emphatically cleared up his opinion with a definitive statement, I have no problem with that if it is truly the case.

                  For my part, it is simply  matter an accurate telling of history. People naturally want to claim a "celebrity" as their own. Anarchists don't tend to put much stock in the "authority" of celebrity or fame, and thus aren't going to fight much over which celebrity said what in favor of anarchist theory. This is one of the reasons there are no anarchist ideologies named after famous personages (such as Marxist, Leninist, Maoist or Trotskyist communism, for example).

                  I'm not out to be argumentative, its just that, given the wide range of erroneous notions people have about anarchism, it never surprises me when people are misinformed.

                  "In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

                  by ZhenRen on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 05:58:30 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

          •  That is not true (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, MichaelNY

            Orwell did sympathize with the Anarchists although he himself was a Socialist and he fought alongside the Socialists. He respected the Communists in that they were doing a large amount of the fighting against the fascists, but ultimately he ended up hating them for betraying the Spanish Revolution, after they (the Communists) turned against the Socialists and Anarchists.

            Him and his wife had to escape from Spain after his party was declared illegal and after he was accused of being a Trotskyite fascist.

            •  It was the Spanish communists (0+ / 0-)

              (under the strong influence of Stalinism) who declared the POUM to be fascist, which of course was a complete fabrication.

              "In times of universal deceit, telling the truth will be a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

              by ZhenRen on Tue Feb 05, 2013 at 12:06:27 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  What's also crazy (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      is that he's a devout Catholic and Randism is atheistic.  He's acting like 2016 won't be a problem for him.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 01:37:27 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Johnson is a Lutheran (5+ / 0-)

        It's the other Ayn Rand nut, Paul Ryan, who is a Catholic.

      •  As for Randianism and Religion (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        See my reply to sawolf last night here.

        Short version: while it ain't exactly what Jesus preached, Randianism is very compatible with certain American strains of Christianity.

        There are a lot of neo-randian evangelical Christians out there, especially in the deep south. It's perfect for justifying the alliance with the Republican party, and is great for wrapping racist beliefs in non-racial language. It's lack of compassion is particularly compatible with manifest (white) destiny ideologies, which appeal to religion as a justification. Rand may have been an Atheist, but that doesn't mean that everyone who draws inspiration from her needs to be.
        •  I just don't buy it at all when someone says (6+ / 0-)

          they are a hard core follower of Rand but also devoutly religious.  It isn't just that Randism is hard core atheistic, it's that it's also highly individualistic which religion is not, highly skeptic (except concerning the Gospel of Rand herself).  Pretty much the entire ideological foundation for Objectivism is incompatible with things like faith and altruism.  I think when people like Ryan are strongly anti-choice for example, it's because they're pandering and know they need the fundie support at the national level, but their main concern is laissez-faire or crony capitalism.

          Even that aside, I'm sure there are plenty of non-Rand followers on the Hill who are closet atheists as I'm sure there are probably members who are closeted about their sexual orientation.  Being LGBT or an atheist still seems to be an undesirable quality among people who run for office as both groups are vastly underrepresented in Congress.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 01:57:54 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Do you at least buy my point (4+ / 0-)

            about several neo-Randian strains in American Christianity (especially in the south), some of which predate Rand herself? I'm sure there are plenty of closeted atheists in congress, but being an Ayn Rand rand doesn't necessarily make you one.

            As a side note, I absolutely HATE the term "Objectivism" and insist on using "Randianism" instead. I know she called her moral system "objectivism," but moral systems inherently require subjective judgement, and the amount of unchecked ego required to call your system "objective" because it doesn't include altruism is mind numbing. You're still making a value judgement, dumbass.

    •  it needs to translate (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      The embarrassment will not be real until it translates to WI voters actually voting out the Randian cultists that currently hold the state in terror.  When are WI voters going to actually turn on these fanatics?

    •  Rod Grams 2.0? (0+ / 0-)

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 05:52:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Dan Maffei NY-24 (5+ / 0-)

    I respectfully disagree that Maffei was a strong candidate.  He should've won easily... his opponent was extremely conservative, the district voted heavily for Obama and Ann Marie Buerkle only squeaked by in the most republican of years. The green party candidate, Urusala Rozum,  didn't receive 8% of the vote because she was all that but rather because Maffei ran a lousy campaign and ran to center. Rozum was kind of endearing, but also kind of out there . I would argue he won solely because AMB was just too much for many of the district's voters and because Obama ran up the margins in the district. Maffei won in spite of himself.

    In addition, Ann Marie Buerkle absolutely destroyed him in their debates. It was painful to watch her slap him around. At the end of one debate she basically called him an ineffective loser, who was too scared of meeting with his constituents. He looked like he was petrified of her.

    I'm sorry for that rant but his campaign was one of the most frustrating to watch.

    AMB is a true believer and one of the most confident candidates out there. I have no doubt she'll run again without changing a single position. Maybe she'll take on Richard Hanna.

  •  TX Redistricting and the Gingles Criteria (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, wwmiv

    I've finished a map of TX with all possible Dem districts mapped out.  I made it more like the original court map in that TX-33 is only in Tarrant County, TX-25 (Doggett) is only in east Travis County and nearby areas, and a TX-23 that would have definitely have voted for Obama this year.  However, I also added a 4th fajita strip district.  All four strips are >70% VAP Hispanic and over 50% SSVR.  However, one meanders to Hays County and another meanders to Victoria.  When I post the map (complete with IL megamander I was working on), I hope I fulfilled the Gingles criteria and made a solid case for a 4th fajita strip.

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 01:30:04 PM PST

  •  please define (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    for those of us who don't tweet etc. can someone please tell me what  Bqhatevwr means.  It seems like a version of whatever but really, why do we have to try and be so cute these days with the English language?   Bqhatevwr is not a word.

    "My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." --Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

    by walja on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 01:40:00 PM PST

  •  MI Dem Party Chair (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, bumiputera

    http://www.michiganradio.org/...

    There are some serious talks about ousting Mark Brewer as the Democratic Party Chair next month at the party convention. He has been the chair for 18 years. That makes him the longest serving Democratic Party chair in the nation. Word on the street is that the UAW and Teamsters no longer support him. Also some of the big money people from Washtenaw County seem to want somebody else.

    The most notable name floating around is Lon Johnson. Johnson has an impressive resume. He was a fundraiser for Al Gore in 2000. He worked on John Dingell's 2002 campaign vs Lynn Rivers. His wife is, Julianna Smoot was a deputy campaign manager for the Obama campaign. Lon Johnson lost a race for State Representative in Northern Michigan this year. He did decently well considering how Republican the district was.

    I would like to see Johnson run for Congress, but he also would make a great party chair.

    M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

    by slacks on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 02:13:33 PM PST

    •  See, change a syable (0+ / 0-)

      and we'd have a problem.

    •  Not a very good 18 years. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      AUBoy2007

      I hope Johnson could do much better.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 02:49:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  If (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      If this movement was serious, they'd have put up a challenge against him months ago.  Apparently, the convention is next month.  Where were all of these folks in Novemeber?

      Personally, I think the problems of my MI Dems are far, far larger than who heads up the party.  While I wouldn't lose any sleep in seeing Mark gone, if you're going to challenge someone as entrenched as this guy, you don't do it a month before the convention without a real candidate, and you don't do it with a divided labor.  He doesn't have the UAW, but I believe I heard he still has the teachers.  Either way, this challenge is bush league territory, very weak tea.

      •  The convention can be unpredictable (0+ / 0-)

        Didn't Diane Hathaway announce that she was going to run for Supreme Court only a few days before the convention? These conventions are such a low turnout affair that anything is possible.

        I think if Johnson enters the race, this convention will show which union has control of the Democratic party. Some people think the MEA may have more power now than UAW. This could be the test.

        I would like to see Johnson announce soon to give other potential candidates a chance if he declines. Ned Staebler may be an interesting option. He is the grandson of former at-large congressman Neil Staebler. Neil challenged George Romney for Governor in 1964. Ned lost a primary for State Rep in Ann Arbor in 2010 to Jeff Irwin. Ned has a background as a investment banker, but more recently has been VP of Economic Development at Wayne State. He probably could raise a lot of money for the state party.

        M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

        by slacks on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 07:21:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Union (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          If it's pitting the UAW against the MEA after the failure of Prop 2 - which most folks in the movement seem to lay the blame on King - I think the MEA wins it in a route.  I think it's kind of hilarious that literally months ago the UAW was all snuggled up next to Mark, and now they are calling for his ouster.  Had the opposition to Mark come from anyone but the UAW, I could see him being ousted, but I get the feeling that people are just as pissed at the UAW as Mark if not even more so.  Quite frankly, King doesn't have any kind of credibility, at the moment.  He's trying to push a coup from a position of weakness that he was literally just months removed from being complicit in.

          But, aside from all of this inside baseball and court intrigue, I think the party needs to do a better job of cultivating new Democrats outside of Southeast Michigan.  It's like everything west of I-75 doesn't count, to them.  I get Southeast Michigan will always be the base of the party, but I'm worried looking at the make-up in the Senate in particular where the only Dems left are black Detroiters and a few progressives from the college towns.  It's starting to look like some Democratic party out of the South.  Non-partisan/bi-partisan redistricting would take care of a lot of this since much of this is a result of gerrymandering, but still.

          •  Kalamazoo, Grand Rapids, and Muskegon seats (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            HoosierD42, James Allen, bumiputera

            The Kalamazoo and Muskegon Senate seats should really be ours.  I did a diary on a potential, optimistic commission map (although I have since amended it to put together Monroe and Lenawee counties so that there is the effect of only one extra county split, which is Saginaw) and it is stunning that we do not have those seats even under the current map.  Last year Obama got around 56 in the Kalamazoo seat and 54 in the Muskegon seat.  So those should be prime pickup opportunities.  I do not have the number on the Grand Rapids seat, but while it is diluted by outer Kent, Obama still got 56 percent in 2008, so another seat that is very winnable.  

            Social Democrat, WI-05

            by glame on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 10:03:18 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Obama's numbers are probably the upper limit (0+ / 0-)

              for those seats. The fact that all the seats are up during mid-term elections probably is the number one reason we lose. It is not like Democrats field terrible candidates every year. Normally we field decent candidates. We control at least 1 State House seat in each of those districts. It normally is a State Rep vs. State Rep battle for an open seat.

              It is very weird because we have State House candidates that win in much tougher districts (ie Terry Brown in seat McCain won and I assume the 2012 numbers are even worse for Obama).

              M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

              by slacks on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 11:28:48 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Well it seems that Washtenaw Dems want him gone (0+ / 0-)

            as well.  That comes from the fact that he didn't want to run Bridget Mary McCormack for Supreme Court. From what I understand McCormack and Mark Bernstein (U-M Regent) want him gone. Knowing a little about political relationships, I would assume the talk about Staebler running might be coming from them.

            You also have to remember that Brewer does not control State Senate and State House candidate recruitment. The Senate Caucus and House Caucus took that away from MDP. His main job is to recruit candidates for the State Boards and the Supreme Court. He has clearly failed in that regard, and I don't expect the Senate or House Dems to give that up anytime soon. The MDP really needs a leader that people actually have confidence in.

            The question is if any challenger can throw together a coalition of UAW, Teamsters, possibly the AFL-CIO and liberal activists to overthrow Brewer. It is totally possible.  I think both Staebler and Johnson have the potential to do that. There is clearly enough people that are discontent with him.

            M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

            by slacks on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 11:01:14 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  We'll (0+ / 0-)

              We'll just have to wait and see.  I wouldn't be surprised either way, but my feeling is that this failure doesn't feel much different on the ground than any of the last.  The entire party has become complacent.  Finally, we're starting to hear rumblings, but it doesn't seem to be anything I haven't heard before.  Truth be told, no one has ever been enamored with Brewer; he's not an easy guy to like, but hell if that's ever been enough of a detriment to him being able to hold onto power.

              Sure, state party conventions are always more raucus and unpredictable than the national conventions.  Anything could happen, and eventually folks run out of nine lives.  But, I'm just not seeing what you're seeing, yet.  Kind of depends on the turnout at the convention.

  •  NYC DKEers (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Who are you backing for Mayor? I'm curious.

  •  Re: Crossover districts. (7+ / 0-)

    Also worth noting: 2012 had fewer crossover seats than 2008, which was fewer than 1996, which was fewer than 1984.  

    But 2012 was also a closer election than 2008, which was closer than 1996, which was closer than 1984.  

    The closer the election, the more the winner/loser of a particular CD will match the PVI of that CD.  In a landslide election, many seats with a D+ or R+ PVI will be carried by the winner of the election, even if that's against the party of their PVI, but those seats won't all necessarily elect the same party down-ballot.  (Even though a landslide Presidential election would probably knock off quite a few marginal members.)

    For example, I've noticed with the 1952 results by CD that there were relatively few R+ seats going to Democrats or D+ seats going to Republicans in 1952 or in 1956.  

    But Stevenson didn't do very well, so there were still plenty of "Eisenhower/Democratic" that would be counted as "crossover districts" by Sabato's approach .  I myself largely consider them Democratic-leaning districts whose lean was still such that Eisenhower won them.  

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 02:44:08 PM PST

    •  For example, in 1952. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Joe Cooper

      (I'd been hoping to save this for a diary, but I can give more detail there.)

      231 seats gave Stevenson his national two-party share of 44.52% or less, and just 38 sent Democrats to the House.

      68 seats were Eisenhower/D+ (by the 1952 results), and 43 sent Democrats to the House (one sent an independent).  Actually, one of the exceptions includes that mistaken NE-04 seat, so the above should be 38/232, and this is 43/67.

      And 136 seats were won by Stevenson, with 132 sending Democrats to the House.

      So I don't really think of those 43 Eisenhower/D+ seats that went Democratic as upsets, even though they were splitting their tickets.  After all, that's nearly 2/3 of the Eisenhower/D+ seats.

      And this wasn't just an artifact of the strong Republican year in 1956.  When Democrats took the House back in 1954, the analogous numbers were 45/232, 54/67, 133/136, or something like that.  There were some vacancies and special elections and districts electing multiple candidates and such, but this is basically the gist of it.

      Anyway, split-ticket voting is interesting in its own right, but this is another perspective.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 03:11:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  *strong Republican year in 1952. (0+ / 0-)

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 03:14:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  And in fact, it's relevant to split-ticket voting. (0+ / 0-)

        Sort of.  If a Democrat wins an R+ district while a Republican's winning it nationally, that's probably a lot more people splitting their tickets than a Democrat winning a D+ district while a Republican's winning it nationally, although you'd have to know the precise margins and so on.

        For example, in 1952, a Democrat won CA-03 with about 51.5% of the two-party vote while Stevenson got about 48.3% of the two-party Presidential vote.  A Democrat also won NY-07 with about 51.9% of the two-party vote, while Stevenson got about 43.2% of the two-party Presidential vote.  While over in NY-21, Jacob Javits and Adlai Stevenson were both topping 60%.  But Sabato would just count them as 3 "crossover districts".

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 03:24:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  so there were 67 "fish out of water" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        in the house then? My guess is that the most D held seat held by an R would be NY 21 and the most R seat held by a D would be FL 5.

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 05:09:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes on NY-21. (0+ / 0-)

          But the most R seat held by a D was KS-01, where Stevenson got under 30% of the two-party vote.  Then MA-03 (although that's probably another damn typo).  

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

          by Xenocrypt on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 05:27:48 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  KY-Sen: I hope polls like that re-encourage (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin, psychicpanda, MichaelNY

    Democrats to go after him.  It doesn't have to be a state legislator or statewide official.  It could be an ambitious businessman like Lunsford, but more capable of campaigning like Jim Graves was.

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 03:15:32 PM PST

  •  SC01 candidates (8+ / 0-)

    List here: http://www.scvotes.org/...

    So here's the list

    Republican (16)
    Keith Blandford - Libertarian nominee in SC1 in 2010/2012, might be the Libertarian nominee but I don't think he can be their nominee when he loses this primary
    Curtis Bostic - Former Charleston County Councilman, lost in 2008 to Vic Rawl
    Ric Bryant - Some dude
    Larry Grooms - State Senator from Bonneau (Lake Moultrie)
    Jonathan Hoffman - former White House Director of Border Security Policy
    Jeff King - Some Dude
    John Kuhn - Former State Senator (lost primary in 2004 to Chip Campsen)
    Tim Larkin - Afghan War Vet
    Chip Limehouse - Charleston State Represenative
    Peter McCoy - Charleston State Representative
    Elizabeth Moffly - Businesswoman / failed candidate for State Superintendent of Education
    Ray Nash - Former Dorchester County Sheriff
    Andy Patrick - Hilton Head Island State Representative
    Shawn Pinkston - Iraq War Vet/Attorney
    Mark Sanford - Noted hiker
    Teddy Turner - Son of Ted Turner

    Democratic (3)

    Elizabeth Colbert Busch - Her brother is on TV
    Ben Frasier - Making his 13th run for Congress, lost in the primary 11 times, make it past Robert Burton in 2010 to lose 65-29 to Tim Scott
    Martin Skelly - Businessman

    And they list two Green candidates (Larry Carter Center and Eugene Platt). Center ran for the State House in 2012. Platt has run for the State House multiple times, and lost by 40 votes to Wallace Scarborough in 2006. I'd guess they'd settle their nomination via convention.

    The other qualified parties (Libertarian, Constitution, United Citizens, Independence, Working Families) will figure out their nominees via convention sometime soon.

    Worth noting that fusion voting is legal in SC.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 03:25:41 PM PST

  •  It's the world turned upside-down! (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, bythesea, itskevin, skibum59, askew, MichaelNY

    Rep. Steve King agrees with most of the gang of 8 immigration bill plan: http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...
    But Ted Cruz has "deep concerns" that it would allow amnesty: http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...
    Said the guy who was born in Canada to a Canadian father and was granted American citizenship from birth due to his mother being American.

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 03:43:19 PM PST

  •  A Hillary Clinton super PAC gets ready to launch: (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, itskevin, MichaelNY, abgin

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 03:59:25 PM PST

    •  2016 seems the turn for H Clinton and J Biden (0+ / 0-)

      With advantage for H Clinton over J Biden. Being a lower level potential candidate I would not run vs no-one of them in 2016. It seems a sure defeat.

      •  Obama seemed a sure defeat, too (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        as far as the conventional wisdom was concerned.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 08:43:19 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  2008 was a little different (0+ / 0-)

          Then the primary was more like an all-in race, with many candidates in the same political level (with more or less support from the basis).

          For 2016, the primary seems more like the 2000 primary with Al Gore. It is not easy to jump over someone who is or has been in the top-positions of the government, if the government is succesfull. It is very difficult and being Cuomo, O'Malley, Warner, Schweitzer... I would look more at the following elections (2020 or 2024).

          •  I don't think you're right (0+ / 0-)

            Clinton was by far the most qualified, on paper, and certainly the most famous candidate to run in 2008.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 09:57:37 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  most qualified? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, askew

              The most famous yes, but the most qualified? Well she was a former First Lady but I think her qualification is now significantly higher than then.

              I think the level between the candidates was a lot closer in 2008 than will be in 2016.

              And the same in the case of Biden, I think he is also more qualified now than in 2008, despite he has then more seniority than the current President Pro-Tempore of the Senate.

        •  at what point? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          By fall 2007 he looked like a good bet, if not favored.  After Iowa he was 50-50 until he clinched it.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 11:05:11 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Before the Iowa caucus results (0+ / 0-)

            Once he won the Iowa caucuses and Clinton won the New Hampshire primary, it was a contest, and then, of course, Obama won South Carolina. But before Iowa, the conventional wisdom was that Clinton winning was a foregone conclusion.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Tue Jan 29, 2013 at 12:03:33 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  At the Beginning of 2008 (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              all the media was talking about a New York presidential race -- Clinton vs Giuliani. All the other candidates were considered has-beens.

              Of course, after Obama started winning votes in the primary, the media turned to a race between "the first woman vs the first black".

              This really frustrated me since I was originally for the "first Latino", Bill Richardson. Of course the media largely ignored him and the other candidates.

  •  David, have you looked at the sidebar recently? (0+ / 0-)
    As far as downballot reshuffling goes, well, it could get pretty intense. In a piece published a few days before Harkin's retirement announcement, the DMR offered a ton of speculation about candidates in both parties who could run for various House seats (including Latham's and Braley's), as well as gubernatorial possibilities as well. But we'll hold off on going nuts over this stuff unless and until folks higher up the food chain start making announcements. Until then, well, life's too short!
    Like half the diaries in the sidebar are devoted to completely theoretical redistricting schemes.
  •  Senate needs to update their roll call quicker (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, GloFish, MichaelNY, bumiputera

    The vote on Sandy aid was 62-36, so it should be interesting to see which Senators voted no.

    Also, which is any Ds voted for offsets.

  •  Obama's Gift to Hillary (11+ / 0-)

    Directed donors to retire her campaign debt and left her with a 200k+ surplus

    Link here

    So much for the frenemies storyline...

    23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 04:40:58 PM PST

  •  LA-Sen (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, itskevin, MichaelNY

    Sorry to beat the drum on this, but as we look at holding seats in AR, AK, SD & WV, I'm going to leave you with the ad below from the American Chemistry Council (so innocent sounding). The ad is a Mary Landrieu love fest.

    AD HERE

    The Daily Comet is reporting the ad is in response to criticism of Joe Biden's visit. The ad runs for 3 weeks across the state. It also comes after a similar ad from the American Petroleum Institute.

    23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 04:45:48 PM PST

  •  IL-02: Toni Preckwinkle endorsed Toi Hutchinson. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, jj32, MichaelNY, gabjoh

    Preckwinkle is Robin Kelly's former boss.

    http://abclocal.go.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 04:47:42 PM PST

  •  So where is everyone on the potential (16+ / 0-)

    of a Clinton run? My confidence remains strong and is only getting stronger.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 05:06:07 PM PST

  •  NJ-Gov: Christie vetoed a minimum wage increase. (7+ / 0-)

    Democrats will put it on the ballot for November. This seems like a real gift to Buono.

    http://www.nj.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 05:10:35 PM PST

  •  Finally got power! (6+ / 0-)

    Yesterday the sewer under downtown Omaha exploded and I was left without power for 24 hours so i didn't get a chance to beat David to the NE-Gov story.

    No word yet on how exploding sewers will affect the Omaha mayoral race :)

    27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

    by JDJase on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 05:53:48 PM PST

  •  MI Gov: Snyder Takes Right-to-Work to Supremes (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, LordMike, JBraden, itskevin

    Hoping to head off potential suits challenging Right-to-Work from the left, Michigan Governor requests that the MI Supreme Court take up Right-to-Work:

    LANSING — Hoping to head off a flurry of lawsuits and legal questions regarding Michigan’s new right-to-work-laws, Republican Gov. Rick Snyder asked the Michigan Supreme Court on Monday to determine whether the policies are constitutional.

    Particularly at issue is whether and how the laws apply to the state’s 48,500 employees, 34,300 — or 71 percent — of whom are represented by a union.

    After the passage of right-to-work last month, state-employee unions immediately threatened litigation, claiming that the law can’t apply to them because the Michigan Constitution gives the Civil Service Commission purview over state workers. No lawsuits have yet been filed.

    ...

    According to the request Snyder submitted Monday to Chief Justice Robert Young, Jr., the governor is asking the court to determine:

    • Whether Public Act 349 interferes with the authority of the Civil Service Commission.

    • If so, whether the law then violates rights to equal protection under the law because state civil service employees would then be treated differently than other public employees and private sector workers. The law already deals with police officers and firefighters differently, by exempting them from the law.

    Usually, I'd call this before it even reaches our conservative dominated Supreme Court, but Snyder seems pretty nervous, and I could see them ruling either way, surprisingly.  It is completely possible they could overturn the law on the technicality the Dems are alleging.

    Things are getting interesting, again...

  •  Oh lol, here's a funny one (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, James Allen

    The Boston Herald apparently now paywalls old articles. Because people people are TOTALLY gonna pay for old Herald Articles.

  •  AL-SOS: State Rep John Merrill (R) to run (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY
    •  Any prospect of us picking up any of the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ridiculous number of partisan statewide races there this cycle?

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 08:35:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Depends on a Folsom candidacy, but probably (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        not.

      •  It's going to take a lot for a Dem to win (0+ / 0-)

        2010 was a watershed year for Alabama Republicans.  They finally broke through at all levels and swept to super majority levels in both houses after not controlling either branch of the state house since Reconstruction and took over all the statewide races.  I doubt Dems win any statewide race for a long long time.  

        A great example of how the tides have turned would be the race for Chief Justice here in 2012.  There were a lot of normally Republican groups that were staunchly opposed to Roy Moore winning that race, and even with all of that he still won rather handily.   There was a time when having both the Business Council of Alabama and the Trial Lawyers of Alabama on the same side in a race meant that the person would win with 80+% of the vote.  

  •  i'm not sure which state is better for a dem to (0+ / 0-)

    run in: Alabama where there are fewer suburban areas and you have a high(er) ceiling and low floor or Georgia where there are a lot more ultrapartisan suburban republicans but have a higher floor.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 10:04:52 PM PST

    •  Georgia (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Skaje, MichaelNY, MetroGnome, sacman701

      at least in a presidential year.  Look at 2008.  Do you think we could have ever sent an Alabama Senate election to a runoff?  Alabama's PVI in 2012 only is R+13.  Georgia is R+5.  I don't think there are enough conservaDems to make up for the PVI difference.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 10:43:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  interesting article (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    http://www.ocregister.com/...

    This is the ultimate paradox. A relatively old state but also a relatively liberal state.

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 10:06:18 PM PST

    •  To paraphrase Dorothy Parker (5+ / 0-)

      The OC Register is not to be tossed aside lightly. It is to be thrown with great force.

      The article neglects to factor in young professionals and skilled workers who are flooding into the state because of the booming high tech industry and the hot growth of startups. Yes, keeping families in the state is important, but this column seems to be using "family" as code for the white suburban OC Republican stereotype than actual families.

      22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

      by kurykh on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 11:18:58 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Kotkin isn't as bad as the other people on the OCR (0+ / 0-)

        If I recall he described himself as a "Scoop Jackson Democrat". He's to the right of us on here, but nowhere near as right wing as the other writers.

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Tue Jan 29, 2013 at 12:36:34 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  NY-11: Recchia drops out of BP race to look at run (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Something I heard last night from Sal Albanese who was speaking about his long shot Mayoral run.  That Domenic Recchia was dropping out of the Brooklyn Borough President's race (after dropping out of the City Comptroller race after Scott Stringer dropped down from the Mayoral race).  A surprise since while he would've had a tough race against Eric Adams he did not have all that bad of a shot.

    http://www.nydailynews.com/...

    But he was never excited about the idea of seeking a post that carries little legislative power or political influence, a source said.

    “That's a step down for the Council finance chair,” a Recchia ally said.

    The Grimm seat has long been a possibility for the city lawmaker, political insiders said.

    Recchia contemplated running against the embattled congressman last year.

    In November, Grimm defeated his Democratic challenger, Mark Murphy, 53 percent to 46 percent.

    But the former FBI agent remains vulnerable, as he's still being investigated by the feds and the House Ethics Committee for alleged fundraising shenanigans.

    Recchia, a successful private sector lawyer, declined to discuss his latest political ambitions.

    “The decision to run for office is not one to be taken lightly,” spokeswoman, Ashleigh Owens, said. “Council Member Recchia has been consulting with his family, friends, colleagues, staff, and constituents regarding his plans and will make an announcement soon.”

    Recchia was going to run for the then NY-13 in 2008 until Michael McMahon got in the race.  Being from the Brooklyn portion of the district he'd have a tough time getting the endorsement of the Staten Island Democratic Party if any serious Staten Island Democrat gets in.

    On a related note Mark Murphy is sounding more receptive to running again.  Which I certainly don't mind given he raised more money than any non-elected official has ever done in Staten Island and put up some pretty good numbers in a district that is more hostile to Democrats than the one Michael McMahon ran in.

    The final numbers including the votes of storm victims voting on paper ballots tightened from 53 - 46 cited in the article above to 52.2 - 46.8 with 1 point going to the Green Party candidate, Henry Bardel.  Grimm performed little better in 2012 as an incumbent than he did as a challenger in 2010.

    He'll however be pushed aside if any of the Staten Island elected officials run.  And now that he did far better than anyone expected someone such as Michael Cussick or Diane Savino may take a far more serious look at the race than they have in the past.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Tue Jan 29, 2013 at 03:11:11 AM PST

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