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Comment Preferences

  •  Obama's best county? Shannon County, SD (12+ / 0-)

    Obama got 93% there.  ~14000 residents and it's 94.2 Native American.
    http://www.businessweek.com/...

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:02:49 PM PST

  •  How KoS helps me with math. (11+ / 0-)

    I'm doing a statistics class this semester, and cards are frequently used in discussions of probability. Since I have no life at all, I've only played card games once or twice. This means I have trouble remembering which are the suits and which are the card values. What I do is to remember "KingofSpades" and use that as a mnemonic to determine which are the card values and which are the suits.

    •  Speaking of which.... (5+ / 0-)

      I was buying new socks last weekend (at Kohl's, which had Herb Kohl on as a lead executive from 1970 to 1979) and saw a t-shirt that said "King of Spades."  It was on a sale rack, but it wasn't my style as it had kind of a motorcycle theme with a skull and tattoo-like decor.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:12:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Btw, (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        what does your sig mean?

        •  Oh, when I was on break... (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Audrid, LordMike, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

          I went to get a flu shot and headed home.  I stopped by at the McDonald's on the way home out of sheer convenience (I was on foot to and from the pharmacy) and ordered something that came with a medium drink.  When I went to the soda fountain, I saw that they had Fruitopia, a fruit-blend drink made by the Coca-Cola company.  Back in my youth (late 90's), Fruitopia was my favorite beverage until I discovered Snapple iced tea in 2000.  I hadn't seen Fruitopia in over a decade and to see it just reappear like that was a pleasant and nostalgic surprise.

          I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

          by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:21:35 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Juicy Juice for adults (or worse) (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, James Allen, MichaelNY

            My mom warned me when I was very young to be suspicious of anything fruit-flavored that was called a "drink."

            Ok, so I read the polls.

            by andgarden on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:27:01 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I didn't even know that still existed. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, MichaelNY

            I recall drinking it in college; a free sample bottle of it was included in our dorm room welcome kits one year. (Tangerine Wavelength, IIRC, and it was good.)

            But I had assumed it had long ago taken its place with Crystal Pepsi, Surge, and the Arch Deluxe in the 1990s Food and Drink graveyard.

            37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

            by Mike in MD on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:40:25 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Wikipedia says that it was phased out of the US (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, MichaelNY, LordMike

              in 2003 and has only been kept in a handful of countries.  No clue why this McDonald's happened to have it.  Also, coincidentally, I was there during the rare McRib reemergence (which is what I ordered).  BTW, was Crystal Pepsi any god?

              I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

              by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 05:03:56 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I didn't think so (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, MichaelNY

                The few times I tried it, about 20 years ago, it tasted off.  It didn't taste like anything else in particular, but it just seemed oddly artificial.  Apparently I'm not the only one who thought so.

                That's not the only failed soda of the 1990s I found on Wikipedia; there was also "OK Soda", which I never even got to try as it never made it past the test markets into national distribution.  From what I've read I didn't miss much.  Cool looking cans though.

                37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                by Mike in MD on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 05:08:08 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Crystal Pepsi was incredibly good! (0+ / 0-)

                But then they put some "citrus" flavoring in and ruined it.

                GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                by LordMike on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:29:23 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

  •  Another episode of (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    David Sirota is an asshole.

    I have a vague recollection that perhaps he once wasn't.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:28:24 PM PST

  •  Ethnic food for thought (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Other than the United States, is there a country where ethnic Asians (meaning East Asians, Southeast Asians, and South Asians) tend to lean left?

    22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

    by kurykh on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:33:16 PM PST

    •  By country, I mean countries outside of Asia n/t (0+ / 0-)

      22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

      by kurykh on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:35:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Australia? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I honestly don't know. There isn't any literature on this to my knowledge. What I do know is that there isn't very much quality academic literature on politics of Asians in the U.S., so I very much doubt there's anything on the politics of Asians outside of Asia in general.

        There might be some stuff on Peru because of Fujimori, but that's probably it.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:43:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Canada (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        This document says that in 2011 Hindus and Muslims disproportionately supported the Grits. Those would likely be mostly south Asians. Doesn't say anything about east Asians.

        http://www.irpp.org/...

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 04:44:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Is the Liberal Party actually liberal? (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, MichaelNY

          They're now a third party, they keep talking about "centrist" values, and short of Justin Trudeau catching fire in the electorate it's probably not moving up and left anytime soon.

          Unless I'm wrong...

          22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

          by kurykh on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:51:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  They did have a coalition with the New Dems once (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            but I guess they're economically liberal (as in, free trade)?

            I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

            by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 09:59:23 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  They're center-left (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            the Conservatives are center-right, and the New Democrats are the left-wing party.

            The federal Liberal Party is heading towards irrelevance -- if they lose the next federal election, I expect they'll probably dissolve or just be a completely irrelevant force in Canadian politics. Half of the provincial Liberal Parties aren't even affiliated with them, and the only one that is and is the governing party is the Prince Edward Island Liberal Party, which is the most die-hard Liberal province in the country.

            •  The New Democrats are not left-wing (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              James Allen, gabjoh

              Well, maybe relatively, but they're center-left. The Liberals are center or center-right, and are liberal in a purely classical liberal non-American sense. They're also a member of the Liberal International with parties like Venstre, VVD, and the UK Liberal Democrats.

              (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

              by Setsuna Mudo on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 10:32:17 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  Why restrict it to outside of Asia? n/t (0+ / 0-)

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 04:48:40 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Some South American countries perhaps? (0+ / 0-)

      Just a guess.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 05:16:19 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The UK (5+ / 0-)

      For obvious reasons, East Indians support the left at very high rates although their vote is very dependent on the quality of local candidates due to the insular nature of many of their communities. Pakistani and Kashimiri voters turned against Labour in droves in 2005 towards the Liberal Democrats and Respect but swung towards Labour in 2010. Generally these communities' voting trends don't mirror the rest of the UK.

      •  Asian voters are very unpredictable here in the UK (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        If you want a perfect example of how some Asian voting patterns can be totally absurd, look at the Bradford West constituency. Pakistani voters here have in the past years swung to the Labour Party, then to the Conservative Party and now to the left-wing Respect Party since March last year.

        Iranian and German by origin. British by birth.

        by germankid101 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 03:58:47 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm pretty sure that had very little to do with (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          gabjoh, MichaelNY

          the national parties.

          It was to do with community leaders wielding bloc votes, and then with a semi-revolt against that system that seems to have been quickly recaptured by the self-same leaders.

          Bradford's voting patterns are sclerotic by any standards, however. The only comparatively weird area is Tower Hamlets and even that's not quite as erratic.

      •  Labour wins most voters of subcontinental heritage (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, Chachy, MichaelNY

        But there's a lot of variation. Hindus tend to be less strongly Labour, Sikhs more so. Pakistani and Bangladeshi communities tend to back Labour, but they'll happily back a Tory or Respect candidate from the same ethnicity over a white Labour candidate.

        Much of this is down to the nature of the immigrant community. Labour got the support of most Indian immigrants, because we fought for their rights whilst the Conservatives threatened to send them home. But these days Hindus tend to be more middle-class, so there's less of an economic incentive to vote Labour (and indeed in areas like Oadby & Wigston they vote overwhelmingly Lib Dem or Tory). Whereas Pakistani and Bangladeshi voters are more likely to be working class, but they're also often semi-segregated in particular parts of the city and the social networks from their home communities continue to survive, so on the one hand they're core Labour demographics but on the other hand community leaders wield a vast degree of power.

        Where there isn't a big immigrant community, community leaders obviously don't have any power, but on the other hand voting may be less dependent on ethnic heritage.

        Overall, however, all these groups are liable to give Labour a plurality in a bad year and a majority in a good year. They aren't as strongly Labour as the West Indian or African communities, but they're pretty reliably Labour.

    •  AFAIK, in New Zealand... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Asians tend to vote National.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:49:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  At this point (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Audrid, Odysseus

      I think that's true in Malaysia. I believe quite a lot more of the Chinese community has in recent years voted for the social democratic-leaning Democratic Action Party than the conservative pro-business Malaysian Chinese Association.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 04:48:15 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Also, the Indian community (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Audrid, Odysseus

        They have even more clearly abandoned the ruling Barisan Nasional (National Front), leaving the Malaysian Indian Congress almost defunct, at least at times. They've provided major support for Barisan Alternatif (Alternative Front) parties and an extra-governmental Hindu-advocacy organization.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 04:51:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  A note of caution (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, bumiputera

          Speaking from my own experience, having visited Malaysia several times and from speaking to friends and relatives and following politics there.

          The Chinese and Indian vote tends to fluctuate. At the last election there was quite a strong protest vote against the BN, partly because of disillusionment over the government's affirmative action New Economic Policy (NEP) and how it unfairly discriminates against Chinese and Indians. Also because they may feel that the ethnic parties in BN are not effectively standing up for their interests and need a shake-up But also due to reasons similar to many Malays voted against the government -corruption, complacency, arrogance and the like.

          Yet at the same time in past elections, Chinese and Indians have at other times -particularly in the 1990s -been a bulwark of support for the BN when Malays deserted the parties in droves over the treatment of Anwar Ibrahim. In fact, toward the end of his career, I seem to remember it became the ultimate irony that Prime Minister Dr Mahathir bin Mohammed -who had first propelled himself to the national spotlight because of his nationalistic Malay views -was now receiving his strongest support from the Chinese and Indian communities

          Chinese and Indian voters may happily cast a protest vote against the government of the day but they have a complicated relationship with the Barisan Alternatif. Many of them don't quite trust its leader, Anwar Ibrahim, who used to be an Islamic fundamentalist back in the day and some fear that he hasn't changed. Also one of the parties in the Barisan Alternatif is PAS, which is an Islamic fundamentalist party. Indeed in some of  the states which PAS controls, it has imposed some forms of Islamic law on its residents and many Chinese and Indian voters fear what will happen if they ever get into government, even as part of a coalition. Both Anwar and PAS have sought in recent years to reach out to the racial minorities and they have been successful to some extent but it remains to be seen whether this will be long term, particularly as it's not out of that the government-controlled media organs will play up this angle for all it is worth

          Finally, many Malaysian Chinese and Indians value stability in their government and are worried about the prospect of an opposition coalition government with diverse parties with diverse constituencies and the impact that it will have on social, economic and political cohesiveness. Many will quite happily register a protest vote but, if push ever comes to shove, they will back what they've always known rather than take a step into the unknown

          At least that's traditionally been my perception of how things are. Hopefully, things are changing but i'll believe it when I see it

          •  That's a very good analysis (3+ / 0-)

            Barisan Alternatif is a coalition of very strange bedfellows, which seem to be united only by opposition to the ruling Barisan Nasional, general beliefs in good government, and more or less strong opposition to discrimination based on race. If they ever take over the national government, it will be hard to keep the resolutely civil libertarian Democratic Action Party and the Islamic Party of Malaysia (Parti Islam se-Malaysia and formerly Parti Agama se-Malaysia ["Religious Party of Malaysia"], ergo PAS) together.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 01:32:19 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Races I'm interested in: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Odysseus, Englishlefty

    gubernatorial races where we might be electing people who will be in office in 2020-2021.  Unfortunately that excludes Virginia.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 05:02:18 PM PST

    •  most important states (8+ / 0-)

      at least in terms of national implications:

      PA (Dems can force court map or even their own gerrymander)
      IL (GOP could force court map)
      MI, OH (see PA but Dems can also force nonpartisan map through initiative)

      Less at stake:
      MD (GOP could force 6-2 court map)
      OR (Dems could make 1-2 purple seats light blue)
      CO (likely 4-3 D by 2020 in any case, at most could go to something like 5-2-1 with Dem map)
      NV (Dems could draw 3-1 but may have that by 2020)
      NY (GOP already in deep trouble almost everywhere)
      FL (under new law, current map isn't much worse for Dems than what a court would draw)
      WI, IN (current map isn't much worse for Dems than a court map)
      MN (plausible Dem map would not be much worse for GOP than current map)

      Even less at stake:
      KY (GOP may be afraid to crack Louisville even with full control)
      MO (likely to end up 6-2 regardless)
      NM (likely 2-1 in any case)
      MA (current map isn't much worse for GOP than a court map)
      TX, GA, SC, LA, UT, NE, KS (Dems have long odds, current map isn't much worse for Dems than a court map)
      WV (fairly homogeneous, can't split counties)
      MS, AL (Dems likely stuck at 1 seat regardless)
      NH, ME (always draw straightforward maps)
      AR (court map would likely resemble current dummymander)

      Nothing at stake:
      NC (governor cannot veto map)
      CA, IA, WA, AZ (commission)
      HI, RI (hopeless for GOP, RI may lose seat)
      ID, OK (hopeless for Dems)

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 05:36:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  also for Oregon (4+ / 0-)

        we could gain a district.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 05:47:26 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Four changes (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY, Odysseus

        TX, GA, SC, and LA all with Democratic governors (I know that it isn't particularly likely for these states, but still) could force much better maps in a compromise even without throwing it to a court.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 05:49:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Agreed (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, WisJohn, MichaelNY

          A Baton Rouge based district that includes EBR, WBR the Felicianas, Pointe Coupee, St Helena, Livingston, Ascension and the River Parishes should lean Democratic.

          23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

          by Stephen Schmitz on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:09:03 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Isn't Ascension deep red? (0+ / 0-)

            Iberville would be a better add to that district.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 06:21:02 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  No (0+ / 0-)

              That's Livingston Parish. Ascension has a decent black population along the river and like the other River Parishes, has a relatively strong union presence with all the chemical and manufacturing plants.

              I drew what I think would be pretty close to a fair map last night. I have a BR based district that has all of EBR, WBR, the Felicianas, St. Helena, Pointe Coupee, most of St. Martin, the western half of Iberville (the white parts), the eastern half of Ascension (the white, GOP parts) and the western half of Livingston (the conservative BR suburbs).

              I'd post a photo if I knew how but essentially the district is 47.5D-52.5R.

              Wouldn't be a shoo-in but this district is trending D, someone like Cazayoux or State Sen Rick Ward would be able to run and win here, especially in a presidential year.

              It would also create a north Louisiana seat I'm very proud of that doesn't split a single parish that is 46.4D-53.6R. This district would be tailor made for Foster Campbell, who represents a PSC seat that is much redder.

              What's fun about Louisiana is a fair map creates 3R-1D-2T seats.

              23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

              by Stephen Schmitz on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 08:46:21 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I drew one just a little bit ago (0+ / 0-)

                That was 48.4 Obama, 52.7 D. It did just about everything you said, (WBR, EBR, Felicianas, St. Helena, Pointe Coupee), but leaves out Ascension and Livingston in favor of going north, taking in St. Landry, Avoyelles, Catahoula, Concordia and Tensas.

                24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 10:08:18 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  And Iberville, like I mentioned above. (0+ / 0-)

                  24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                  by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 10:47:04 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  But a court drawn map (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, HoosierD42

                  Would include at minimum the Baton Rouge suburbs in both. It's weird, but Pointe Coupee fits very well w/ a BR district as it's part of that orbit and New Roads has always had an outsized effect on regional politics.

                  Once you go further north, those parishes really belong in a CenLA based district.

                  The one I drew was 43O-56M, would be very winnable despite those numbers. I imagine it's probably 44O or 45O in 2012, it's actually trending our way and has a LOT of Blue Dog areas who did and still do vote for Dems. It'd be a district Mary Landrieu would expect to win and win fairly handily.

                  23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

                  by Stephen Schmitz on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 11:46:00 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  this is not a fair map (0+ / 0-)

                 photo Louisiana2-3-1_zps1bf082ba.png

                2nd: 50.6% African American by VAP, 64% Obama 2008, 68.5% Dem average

                4th: 37.5% African American by VAP, 43% Obama 2008, 47.7% Dem average

                6th: 50% African American by VAP, 58.7% Obama 2008, 61.6% Dem average

                I don't think we'd win the 4th, but the real point of the map is the 6th.  The 2nd is gerrymandered worse than it.  The 3rd district is the absolute worst, though.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 11:44:33 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  That is very similar to the one I drew. (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen

                  With cleaner lines and some tradeoff between the 4th 5th and 6th.

                  24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                  by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 06:52:00 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  well it's really easy to draw another district a (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    HoosierD42

                    Democrat could win.  The skill is in making them all (including the 2nd) look good.  Obviously I care little for skill.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:13:57 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Haha. (0+ / 0-)

                      I was very proud of mine actually, I didn't split a single parish more than once and the lines looked nice.

                      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                      by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:32:20 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                •  How do you post photos? (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  James Allen

                  I would like to post my map. In mine, only the 2nd is majority AA.

                  I think the argument we were making is what would a court do, and I don't think a court would draw your map.

                  A court drawn map would be 3R-1D-2T. My 4th is very similar to yours, except I have all of Ouachita Parish, along with Richland Parish, but do not have Red River or De Soto parishes.

                  Yours is definitely more democratic, but I think mine is better COI wise and would more likely be court drawn.

                  23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

                  by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 11:28:30 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  yeah, I wasn't suggesting a court would draw (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Stephen Schmitz, HoosierD42

                    mine, unless someone persuaded them to draw two African American majority districts.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 12:30:11 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  and btw, if you upload it to photobucket (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Stephen Schmitz

                    then they make it really easy to share.  You just need to get the html code to post it on "blogs".  If you want to post images in your diary without overloading your account at a hosting site, using the image library here at Dkos is probably better, but I don't think you can post those images in comments.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 12:31:54 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

      •  WI (4+ / 0-)

        A Court would probably draw something like the Les Aspin district for WI-1 (All of Rock and none of Waukesha) which would be D+2ish, instead of the R+4 or so it is now. (The 2000s map was soft incumbent protection).

        Also, WI-7 would probably get Steven's Point and Chippewa falls back, although considering how that area trended, it still might not have been much better than even to D+1 on 2012 numbers.

      •  Speaking of the rule in NC... (0+ / 0-)

        What are the odds that Republicans don't pass laws in MI, PA, etc., like the NC law that a governor can't veto redistricting - it's not like they're shy about milking those majorities.

        They could end up parlaying their 2010 election wins into like a century-long gerrymander in each of those states.

      •  The court's map for TX (0+ / 0-)

        seemed a lot better than the current map. You don't agree?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 04:54:23 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  it was maybe 1-2 seats IIRC (0+ / 0-)

          I think there was a second Dem seat in Austin, but that was about it. The top 4 states I listed would all have 3+ seat differences between a court map and the gerrymander they actually drew.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 08:33:00 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  But that court map (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            hewed closely to the republican-drawn map (even before the Supreme Court ruled that it didn't hew closely enough). A court map that started from scratch would likely have drawn at least the extra Austin seat, plus 1 or 2 more competitive/Dem seats between Houston and DFW, and maybe even 3. My guess is it would end up being a 21-15 map, which would be a gain of 3 seats for us.

            By the way, can anyone explain why another minority district wasn't required in Houston post-2010? I'm thinking in particular that there should have been a Northwest Houston hispanic district... But I can't say I'm all up on the details of the VRA requirements.

      •  left off TN and NJ (0+ / 0-)

        TN probably is not a big deal as the GOP drew the Nashville district the same way a court would, and I suspect it'll continue to trend blue so they'll do the same thing in 2022. NJ would probably be 5th on the list as Dems could probably draw an 8-4 instead of the current 6-6.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 08:36:38 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I have to disagree with a few of these (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        In Wisconsin and Indiana we would could have gained two seats each from a court map, W-01 and W-07 would be D-leaning while Brendan Mullen and Shelli Yoder would be in congress right now without the Republican gerrymander.

        In Florida the GOP gerrymander still cost us Young's seat and probably Dan Webster's as well.  Depending on how south Florida gets drawn, Garcia could get a much safer seat or one of Diaz-Balart or Ros-Lehtinin's would get a lot more Democratic.

        In Minnesota a Dem gerrymander would probably be 6-1-Peterson with the GOP only really having a shot at his or Walz's seats if they're open.

        In Texas we could gain as many as four seats from a non-partisan map, one in south Texas, one in Austin, one in Dallas/Ft. Worth and one in Houston.

        Alabama would see the 2nd district shift radically to the left by no longer cracking Montgomery and would easily elect Bobby Bright or another Blue Dog.

        South Carolina would see the 5th district become Dem enough that we'd retake it.

        In Georgia the 7th district would become significantly more Democratic to the point where we'd be favored, at least in a presidential year.

        In New Hampshire Democrats would be smart to shore up Shea-Porter a little bit if we control the process, similarly in Maine with Michaud's seat.

        If we still control West Virginia they should try to draw a 1-1 map.  In Arkansas a court map would be significantly better in terms of making the 1st district competitive than would a GOP gerrymander, which seems more likely at this point.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 12:35:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I think you're being a bit overly definative (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          WI-1 would be D+2ish and WI-7 would probably be down to D+1 or so using 2012 numbers. Duffy and Ryan would have had tougher races, but it's not completely certain they would have lost.

          I don't know as much about Indiana, but I think IN-9 would have been in a similar boat, but I agree on IN-2.

        •  Agreed on IN-02 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          A court drawn map would have left in Michigan City and Mullen would be in Congress. IN-09, I'm not so sure about.

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 06:54:12 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  NH (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          not sure it matters that much. NH-02 may be slightly bluer by pres numbers, but when NH districts swing, they swing together. the two districts haven't been represented by different parties since Dick Swett (LOLOLOL ok out of my system) left Congress in 1995. and NH-02 doesn't have that many Dems to spare.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:20:18 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Halter in, McDaniels out (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

    The Arkansas governorship may be retainable after all!

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 05:22:51 PM PST

    •  I'm not getting my hopes up (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Audrid, MichaelNY, Odysseus, OGGoldy

      Halter is to the left of the state's median by quite a bit, he wasn't all that impressive in his primary of then-Sen. Blanche Lincoln in 2010, and Arkansas has trended hard Republican. Plus I don't think Sen. Pryor will get within 10 miles of him, though I'd like to be pleasantly surprised.

      I think Pryor holds on by a fairly comfortable margin in the end. He's got the name, he's got the profile, he's got the seniority, and he'll have every big gun in Arkansas Democratic politics backing him up, from Gov. Beebe to his father to Dale Bumpers to President Clinton. Plus Lt. Gov. Darr seems like a putz.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:51:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Your Weekend Open Thread Election Counterfactual (7+ / 0-)

    This never would have happened but it's a fun thought experiment.

    Our point of departure is January 3rd, 2009.  Realizing that Republicans will do everything they can to obstruct the Dem agenda by stifling economic growth, Democrats snap to their senses and totally eliminate the filibuster.  Needing just 50 votes (plus Biden) and realizing that they would only get one shot at stimulus, the Obama administration pushes through $2.5 trillion dollars in stimulus that has a lot more bang for the buck through things like infrastructure projects than the actual one did with tax cuts.  The effect is that we see a very strong economic recovery, even though Democrats initially face a lot of blowback in the first half of 2009.

    Other than that, Democrats have to deal with the press and Republicans going nuts over the filibuster, but are able to push through stronger Financial Reform, Health Care Reform, Immigration Reform, and a Cap and Trade Bill (am I forgetting something else that was huge, aside from things like DADT repeal).

    So by election day, the economy is growing quite rapidly and unemployment is way lower than it was in reality thanks to the 200% more stimulus.  Republicans are tarred with being opposed to the stimulus en masse. With all that in mind, how would Democrats do in the 2010 elections for Congress and state government?

    My best guess is that we hold all of our senate seats and gain the following eight seats, bringing us to 68 total:
    Alaska (McAdams supporters abandon Murkowski's write in), Florida (Crist with a plurality), Kentucky (Conway vs. Paul), Louisiana (Melancon vs. Vitter), Missouri (Carnahan vs. Blunt), North Carolina (Marshall vs. Burr), Ohio (Fisher vs. Portman), New Hampshire (Hodes vs. Ayotte)

    And if we want to get really crazy:
    Arizona (Governor Napolitano vs. McCain/Hayworth)
    Iowa (Tom Vilsack vs. Tom Latham with Grassley scared into retirement)
    Kansas (Governor Sebelius vs. Moran)
    Utah (Matheson vs. Lee)

    In the house we lose LA-03 and TX-19, but gain the following 44 seats for a net of 42 and a total of 300:
    AK-AL (Berkowitz), AZ-03 (Hulburd), CA-03 (Bera), CA-04 (Brown), CA-24 (Brownley), CA-44 (Hedrick), CA-45 (Pougnet), CA-50, DE-AL (Carney), FL-05, FL-10 (Justice, Young retires), FL-12 (Edwards), FL-13, FL-16, FL-22, FL-25 (Garcia), IL-06 (Duckworth), IL-10 (Seals), IL-13, IL-16, LA-02 (Richmond), LA-04 (Carmouche), LA-06 (Cazayoux), KS-04 (Goyle), MN-02 (Obermuller), MN-06 (Clark), OH-02 (Hackett), OH-12 (Brooks), MI-03 (Miles), MI-06, MI-11, MO-09, NC-05, NE-02 (Esch), PA-06 (Trivedi), PA-15 (Callahan), SC-01 (Ketner), SC-02 (Miller), TN-03, VA-01, VA-04, VA-07, WA-08 (DelBene), WI-01

    And the following 25 possibilities if it were a truly 1936 style realigning election:
    CA-25, IA-04 (open), IN-03, OH-03, OH-05, OH-07, OH-14?, OK-05, MD-06, MI-02, MI-04?, MI-08?, MN-03, NJ-02, NJ-05, NJ-07, NV-02, NY-03, PA-05, PA-18, TX-19, TX-32, VA-10, WA-05, WV-02

    In terms of governors I think we could have held everything except Wyoming thanks to the recovery while picking up the following 13 for 39 total:
    Alabama (Sparks), Arizona (Goddard/hold), California (Brown), Connecticut (Malloy), Florida (Sink), Georgia (Barnes), Hawaii (Abercrombie), Minnesota (Dayton), Nevada (Reid), Rhode Island (Chafee), South Carolina (Sheheen), Texas (White vs Perry), Vermont (Shumlin)
    (And Alaska being a possibility)

    State legislatures also go similarly with us holding everything we had and picking up the lower House in: Arizona, Tennessee, and Texas

    And picking up the state senate in: Alaska (outright), Arizona, Kentucky, Montana, Oklahoma (and maybe Tennesse as a possibility).

    So given my point of departure (nuking the filibuster plus a huge stimulus) do you guys think these election results are realistic?  What outcomes do you guys think would be plausible?  Obviously my conclusion is that we would have had a New Deal type of realignment with Democrats easily clearing 2/3rds in each chamber and being in a ridiculously strong position for redistricting, set to gain even more seats in both chambers while Obama clears 400 EVs in 2012.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 05:46:29 PM PST

    •  Duckworth didn't run in 2010 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Odysseus

      We also ran a Some Dude in FL-13 in 2010, so I think that both Roskam and Vern would have won regardless of the national mood.

    •  I don't think you are too far off. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, gabjoh, MichaelNY, Odysseus

      I wouldn't bet on your crazy/possibility seats, but the others I can see. I do wonder about AK-SEN. Does the Tea Party even form in your situation? Are they as strong as they actually were, if they do form? Maybe Joe Miller doesn't happen, and Tony Knowles beats Lisa.

      Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, Coya shouldn't have been sent home.

      by WisJohn on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:19:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  nope (5+ / 0-)

      I don't think the economy would've come back that hard that quick, but we could've cut our losses a bit more.  And in 2012 we'd have cleaned up.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:34:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  That sounds bonkers to me. (8+ / 0-)

      The economy couldn't possibly have been that much of a positive. In the counterfactual world you describe, the people would never know about how things went down over her on real Earth; while a strong recovery sounds great to us compared to what actually happened to us, to them it would just be like, "Well that was a nasty recession, but at least things are back to normal now." It would be like holding an election under 2004 economic conditions or something. And there'd still be a ton of white people freaking out about a black president and Kenyan socialism and stuff, and a bunch of Democrats sitting on the sidelines, because that's just what we do in midterms. I'm pretty sure we would have lost seats in congress no matter what.

      •  I don't buy this one bit (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, betelgeux

        It would be obvious that Democrats were responsible for the economy and voters almost always heavily back the incumbent party when the economy is growing at a ridiculous rate.  Look at elections like 1936, 1964, and 1984 where you had a tremendous rate of growth in the year of the election and the incumbent party benefited in each.

        So what you're saying is that the 2006/2008 wave would just dissipate after Dems deliver in tremendous fashion on the economy? That doesn't make sense at all.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 12:03:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  If, by hypothesis, the economy were growing (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

          at a ridiculous rate, then the Democrats might make some gains in the Senate, while holding steady in the House. It seems unlikely to me that they'd do a lot better than their 7-point (?) win in 2008, given the other factors I mentioned - the midterm, white cultural angst, etc.

          But is it a certainty that the economy would be doing that great? As it was, the stimulus that did pass only made a dent in the negative shock of depressed state and local spending. Which is why I think even a massive stimulus would likely only have returned the economy to decent - not ridiculous - growth; and there still would have been a lot of unemployment to work down.

          And then there's the question of how much stimulus could have passed even with a 50-vote threshold in the Senate. Would it have been politically feasible to go over a trillion?

    •  I think a scenario like this... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, MichaelNY

      would have been more likely if  somehow McCain won in a fluke in 2008, (maybe could have happened if Edwards had been the nominee.)  . If McCain made some huge self-inflicted wounds and had a bad economy there was a chance the Dems would come close to a veto-proof majority in 2010.

      •  That would be a fantastic alt history (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Edwards as the nominee 2008, he loses narrowly...

        How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

        by gabjoh on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 11:46:34 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  If you like horror stories (4+ / 0-)

          then yes.  First off, you'd better pray that Souter and Stevens were still on the Supreme Court until at least 2013 (they're still alive and well, but would they have remained until now?  Souter was especially tired of Washington.)

          The prospect of Sarah Palin as VP should give anyone pause, as would Phil Gramm as Treasury Secretary (at least if he hadn't stuck his foot in his mouth during the campaign.)  And then there's foreign policy, as his comments during the campaign and since have made clear what it would have been under him.

          With "huge self-inflicted wounds and a bad economy", a Democrat would likely have won in 2012, but that still would mean 12 years of Republican policies and appointments to clean up from.  Ask Bill Clinton how tough that is.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 08:13:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Possibly, and I suppose you could say the same (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, MichaelNY, betelgeux

        for if Ford had won instead of Carter.  Democrats benefit massively from the economic stagnation/recession of the late 70s and instead of the "Reagan Revolution" we get a huge blue wave in 1980 that elects president Kennedy and sees Dems with supermajorities in both chambers.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 12:04:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  VA State Sen. Dick Black compares abortion (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

    to the Holocaust:

    Pardon me, asswipe, but you know nothing.

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 05:56:17 PM PST

  •  weekend tune (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, arealmc

    In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

    by lordpet8 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 06:23:19 PM PST

    •  The Acoustic Version (0+ / 0-)

      The acoustic version of this song is also pretty sweet. Atlas Genius is my new favorite band of the week.  

      Kansan by birth, Californian by choice and Gay by the Grace of God.

      by arealmc on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 02:32:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  sweet I just discovered them (0+ / 0-)

        In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

        by lordpet8 on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 03:58:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Music contribution (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv, KingofSpades

    26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 06:24:33 PM PST

  •  Well, I like to share some weekend music (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, HoosierD42

    to study or chill to:

    A fascinating cover:

    A little Japanese music:

    And one of my favorite and one of the most versatile Japanese singers, the always lovely Yoko Ueno, sometimes associated with Zabadak:

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 06:30:53 PM PST

  •  Demographic data for 113th Congress districts (0+ / 0-)

    I just saw this at
    http://www.sacbee.com/...

    It's not "about" any one race, but is obviously relevant to all of the US House races (and a godsend for data junkies).

    My apologies if anyone else here has already linked to it:

    *
    First Look at Key Demographic Characteristics of New Congressional Districts

    By U.S. Census Bureau

    Published: Thursday, Jan. 24, 2013 - 2:45 pm

    WASHINGTON, Jan. 24, 2013 -- PRNewswire-USNewswire -- The following is being released by the U.S. Census Bureau:

    First Look at Key Demographic Characteristics of New Congressional Districts ─ For the first time, the Census Bureau's American Community Survey is providing access to detailed demographic data on congressional districts for the 113th Congress. These statistics include age, education, occupation, income and veteran status. They are accessible via Easy Stats, the Census Bureau's new online tool offering quick and easy access to American Community Survey data. These statistics are drawn from the most recent one-year American Community Survey sample, tabulated for redistricted congressional districts of the 113th Congress. Easy Stats provides statistics on a wide range of topics, such as income, occupation, housing and education, down to the local level, including states, counties, cities and towns, and now, congressional districts. See http://www.census.gov/... .

  •  WI-Gov: Mahlon Mitchell refuses to rule out run (5+ / 0-)

    Mitchell also left the door open for a WI-Sen run in 2016.

    Link to tweet from Mitchell

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 06:45:26 PM PST

    •  Not a bad idea. (4+ / 0-)

      We can run a progressive against Ron Johnson in 2016 and win with presidential turnout. It will not be necessary to pine for Ron Kind. And before the Kind apologists react, please try to defend his vote to censure Holder as another other than pledging fealty to the NRA while representing a liberal district. He's nearly as bad as Jim Cooper, and represents a more liberal district than Cooper.

      http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

      by redrelic17 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 06:31:35 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  WI-3 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        redrelic17

        In regards to mounting a primary challenge to Ron Kind, I don't think any of the three state senators from that area (Kathleen Vinehout, Jennifer Shilling, and Julie Lassa) would be interested in a primary challenge to Kind (they'd consider a run if Kind retired or ran for higher office), however, a Democratic assemblyperson, local official, or activist from that area of Wisconsin might try it, and the only one I can think of would be state assemblywoman Katrina Shankland.

        Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

        by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 08:11:02 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  No activist would beat Kind. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

          The district is more conservative than you think. Not in a AR-01, OK-02 sense, but still to the right of the national party. Some activist might win a few of the college precincts (although that is doubtful, as our primaries are now in August, before classes start), and maybe a few precincts along the Mississippi River, but that's it.

          Why he voted to censure Holder is beyond me, but most congress-critters have voted the wrong way on one thing or another.

          Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, Coya shouldn't have been sent home.

          by WisJohn on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 11:11:42 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Senate Minority leader (6+ / 0-)

        Chris Larson would be my bet for a more progressive character to run against Johnson.

      •  Mark Pocan (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        redrelic17, askew, MichaelNY, betelgeux

        I noted the other day that, after watching him participate in an hour-long roundtable on Up with Chris Hayes, I would like Pocan to be our nominee against Johnson in 2016. He's very articulate, and I think he could make a great case for why he would be a far more effective Senator than Johnson. I think Mitchell could be a decent candidate (especially because I want us to have more black Senators), but I'm currently supportive of Pocan.

        It's also worth noting that, in 2011, Kind voted for Jim Cooper to be Speaker instead of Nancy Pelosi. He almost seems like a perfect midwestern comparison to Cooper, right down to the fact that he believed Cooper should be the head of the caucus (although he voted for Nancy Pelosi this time around). I'm willing to let a Democrat pass on stuff like this if they live in a red district, but not in a district as blue as his. At this point, I'm willing to support him if he runs for Governor against Walker, but I can no longer support him if he wants to run for Senate.

        The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

        by AndySonSon on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 12:11:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  VA Gov. Bob McDonnell comes out against EC-rigging (5+ / 0-)

    This is a big f***ing deal, folks!

    Link to story from HuffPost

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:16:22 PM PST

    •  I'm curious to see what the MI R's do (3+ / 0-)

      haven't heard anything about them surrendering on the EC-rigging just yet.

      In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

      by lordpet8 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:29:11 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Haven't heard much from WI on this issue... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        ...since Walker gave his vocal support for EC-rigging. Haven't heard anything at all from Ohio on this issue.

        Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

        by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:30:58 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  State Sen has said he's putting it together (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, Englishlefty

        as we speak.  Snyder has said he's open to looking at the issue.  

        I don't think Snyder would sign it though.  I think he'd love for it to pass the state house and senate and then veto it to try and pretend he's not an ideologue after his lame duck craziness.  

        If he signed it, he'd definitely be a one term and done Governor because he'd make it a huge campaign issue given Michigan could challenge the law on the ballot.  So Snyder would be up for re-election in 2014 and on the same ballot as the measure to block the EV rigging (and also will be on the same ballot as his right-to-work bill that will tried to be overturned by vote as well).  I'm not naive enough to think the RTW could have popular support, but in a state that went Obama by 6-7% to then say Romney would have got the majority of the EV's - that will not sit well at all with the voters.

        "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

        by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 08:30:41 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  MI is the smart move... (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Englishlefty, BeloitDem, Chachy, MichaelNY

        for Republicans.

        Although it's heading in the D direction, Virginia is still a state that Republicans could conceivably win.  The same goes for Ohio, Florida.  Wisconsin has been on a knife edge in some recent elections, and Pennsylvania, despite voting D since 1992, seems to be drifting right a tiny bit, so I'd say it's possible it could get added to the Republican coalition as time rolls on.

        Michigan is different.  Yet again, it wasn't particularly close in 2012.  It's consistently the second-most Democratic state in the Midwest, after Illinois.  Even if union power is broken through RTW, there's too many black people in Michigan compared to states like Wisconsin and Minnesota, and it doesn't have (outside of Grand Rapids) any hard-right population bases like Ohio and Pennsylvania to rack up the turnout.  

        Thus, it's a safe assumption Republicans are going to lose the statewide vote for decades to come, if national coalitions remain the same as they are now.  So they aren't throwing anything away (except their viability on the state level of course) by considering it.

      •  Can't see it getting through (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I actually think this will be harder to get through than Right-to-Work was.  I don't think Republicans could hold together in the House, though, it is not doubt it would/could pass the Senate.

        That said, I've learned to never take anything for granted, and Snyder said just the other day that he wants this debate, this year, but in his typical weasly fashion didn't support it one way or the other...which means he'd sign it if it reached his desk, because he's an absolute push-over when it comes to placating his own party.

    •  Not really (8+ / 0-)

      He has self interest to oppose it. Virginia is still on the Republican side of the tipping point, and McDonnell in particular needs it to win if he's going to run in 2016.

      Also, it was already dead because there was no way Bill Bolling would vote for it and a couple GOP senators where already against it.

    •  Excellent news! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      21, Male, NC-02 home, SC-04 School. Majoring in Piano Performance.

      by aggou on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 12:22:08 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  WATN: Orly Taitz faces possible sanctions... (4+ / 0-)

    ...from a federal judge.

    Taitz, one of the most notorious members of the birther movement, came in fifth in the 2012 CA-Sen blanket primary.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:38:20 PM PST

  •  MA Senate (6+ / 0-)

    I was reading the Political Junkie columnat NPR and didn't realize until now that Markey had previously run for this very same seat 29 years ago (back in 1984).
    Ken Rudin, a big time collector of political campaign buttons and editor of the column, actually has an old button from Markey's first run!

     photo EdMarkey1984_zpsb16a76e8.png

    In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

    by lordpet8 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:57:14 PM PST

  •  question about voting patterns in the south (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    one thing I would assume is that the so-called gender gap would be most prominent there. Even though both vote republican by huge margins, do white women tend to be significantly more willing to vote dem than white men?

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 10:04:41 PM PST

  •  The word from this tweet is trending on Twitter (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    geoneb, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    Of course, that's hardly a word. It's not clear if Brown was hacked or if he just went on a late night tweet spree, because there were other tweets saying "Whatever" to tweeters who criticized him, but those aren't up anymore.

    26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 11:39:32 PM PST

  •  I wonder if Scott Brown is taking twitter lessons (4+ / 0-)
  •  WATN: Shelli Yoder is seeking an appointment (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Odysseus, HoosierD42

    to a vacant seat on the Monroe County council. There will be a Democratic caucus held to replace Vic Kelson, who resigned earlier this month.

    http://www.heraldtimesonline.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 02:15:31 AM PST

  •  WATN: Artur Davis looking at Virginia Senate run (7+ / 0-)

    if the new redistricting plan goes through. Though I don't know why he would run against Marsden, since his district would be made more Democratic. George Barker and Mark Herring's districts would be the ones to go for.

    Also, I love how all these articles are now about "sources familiar with [politician's] thinking". Just hire some telepaths already, would you?

  •  We buried my grandfather this week. (15+ / 0-)

    I wanted to mention this earlier, but this week has been crazy, as you can imagine.

    He was 92, he had been suffering from dementia for the past five years at least, it feels like, so it was not unexpected, but it's still very hard. At least we got one last Christmas with him.

    He was an FBI special agent, a WWII veteran of the CID and present at the Nuremberg trials, but most importantly a beloved father to 5 and grandfather to 12. They don't make 'em like him anymore.

    An article about him made section A of the South Bend Tribune, which was a pleasant surprise and a great tribute to him. I encourage you to read it.

    http://www.southbendtribune.com/...

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 06:00:18 AM PST

  •  sorry for your lost (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    HoosierD42, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

    I lost all my grandparents before I turned 18, so at least yours were in your life much longer than my grandparents.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

    by BKGyptian89 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:05:55 AM PST

    •  You're right, I feel lucky. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, MichaelNY

      Papa (as we called him) is actually only my first grandparent to pass away.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:31:23 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wow. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        All four of my grandparents are gone & I'm 19 years old. I guess I'm lucky in one sense though-all four had their mental faculties right up until the end.

        The first one went in his sleep after eating a big breakfast.
        The second one had lung cancer.
        The third one was just old and had lost the will to live.
        The last one had emphysema.

        19, Male, MD-8. Fan of University of Virginia athletics.

        by Danny Ricci on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 08:04:37 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  My paternal grandfather died (4+ / 0-)

          before my parents were formally engaged, but in time to bless what he perceived was their impending marriage from his hospital bed. I remember my maternal grandfather as a gentle giant, but he was only 5'6". He died when I was 5, though, so I wasn't very tall and literally looked up to him.

          I was very close to my paternal grandmother, who I called Baba, Ukrainian for Grandma. We visited her at her place on Astoria Boulevard every Saturday. She died when I was 8.

          My maternal grandma lived until my junior year of college but had stopped enjoying life years earlier. It was sad. She had had an adventurous youth. Her great adventure, which she loved to talk about, was when she hitchhiked from New York to San Francisco with her older sister, Rela, before she got married in the 1920s. Rela loved SF so much she stayed. Grandma hitchhiked back to New York by herself. Yet in her later years, she refused suggestions from her friends to travel to Europe with them, and just stayed at a home for the aged near my aunt in Southern California and saved her money, which neither of her daughters really needed. We had to learn to respect what she was doing as what she really wanted to do, and understand it from someone who remembered the Depression and other times of great privation, but it was still sad.

          I also had a kind of fictive grandmother, Mrs. Ethel Carr, a wonderful black Baptist lady originally from Mississippi who lived in Harlem and came now and then to help us around the house and babysit me. My mother had won a Danforth Grant, provided by the millionaire Republican Senator John Danforth in order to help mothers return to school and get graduate degrees. Danforth was a pro-life senator who really walked the walk, so one line item in his grants was for child care, and we used it to pay Mrs. Carr, whose other clients were wealthy Jews on Park Avenue. When I was old enough not to need babysitting and Mrs. Carr was too old to do housework, we sent her the check once a month, anyway, and instead of her bringing food for us when she came to work (as she always had), we invited her for dinners which my mother cooked and just treated her like a member of the family. Harlem was very high-crime in the 70s, and her apartment was burglarized 7 times, with thieves stealing her meager savings. Mrs. Carr loved her neighbors and her church, but my mother ultimately was able to prevail on her to accept her nephew's offer to have her move in with his family near Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, we lost touch with her shortly after she moved, and figured she must have passed away.

          Mrs. Carr had a big influence on my thinking. She was a true Christian who always called everyone "Sugar" and always had a smile and a good word for everyone. She had a hard life but never became bitter. And in those days, when many white New Yorkers feared crime from black muggers, knowing a black lady who was such a great person helped me avoid becoming a racist to any greater extent than was probably inevitable from just being part of American society.

          By the way, Danforth eventually decided to redirect his grants to poor black people in St. Louis, instead of mothers returning to school. Why don't we have Republicans like him anymore?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 01:53:01 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  BREAKING: Tom Harkin won't seek re-election (8+ / 0-)

    I had my eye on this one, since he hadn't said much yet. Iowa isn't West Virginia, but this creates another tough defense in 2014

  •  Something told me the Harkin was hangin it up (8+ / 0-)

    I just had that feeling, so Im not surprise. I his tone as of lately gave it away, plus seeing his speech on the senate floor on Thursday added on to that.

    Hey Bruce, throw that plan for running Governor out the window, and get your ass in that senate that Senate race.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

    by BKGyptian89 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 09:24:08 AM PST

    •  I just can't imagine (0+ / 0-)

      that Senate rules had anything to do with it.  This isn't something you'd do for something so petty.  Besides, anonymous holds are going away.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 09:52:33 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I didn't see it coming. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I was convinced that he wanted to stick it out now that he had finally gotten the chairmanship of his favored committee, HELP. Didn't count on him just being tired.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 06:58:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  HELP goes to Bernie Sanders... (0+ / 0-)

        At least it would be in good hands.  But what's the point of being HELP Chair when Reid makes sure nothing will get done in the Senate?

        Reid lied to the liberal wing of the party.  He promised them reform when McConnell flat out lied on their handshake gentleman's agreement in 2010 - and Reid fell for it again.

        Liberal wing really is their own party - Reid and Obama don't care a lick about them - just take their votes for granted.  

        "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

        by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:46:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh, stuff it (9+ / 0-)

          Reid, and by extension Obama, support most of the same goals the liberal wing does.  There just aren't enough votes to get the liberal wishlist through as originally proposed, so they had to compromise and drop some things.

          You sound like one of those House Tea Partiers whining about Boehner "selling out" or compromising too much for not always doing what they want.  Or, for that matter, David Sirota who some of us blasted upthread.

          37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 08:05:48 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agreed wholeheartedly (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            WisJohn

            JJ, nothing seems to delight you more than complaining about your fellow (supposedly) Democrats. Give it a rest and lighten up.

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 10:55:00 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I don't know (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Zack from the SFV, BeloitDem

            I just can't understand why the Democrats in the Senate are allowing themselves to get rolled by filibusters, when they could choose to end them. So I am unable to be sure JJ is wrong about Reid (I don't see how President Obama is relevant to the fight over Senate rules).

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 12:31:21 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  IA-Sen: favorite tweet on this (10+ / 0-)

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

    by BKGyptian89 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 09:35:46 AM PST

  •  How many conferences do conservatives have? (0+ / 0-)

    The National Review Institute Summit is going on today. Then there is CPAC. Their RNC meetings seem to get a lot of media attention, like the one yesterday where Bobby Jindal spoke. I'm sure there is some tea party conference that I've forgotten.

    Do we have this many conferences? Or is just netroots nation?  

  •  OLP Convention (6+ / 0-)

    Enjoying watching the Ontario Liberal Party's Convention today.  They're going through rounds of balloting to determine who will be the new premier.

    It's always fun to watch since we've pretty much done away with these types of convention nomination fights here.

  •  Aspen-Rodel fellowships. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY

    The Aspen Institute has this thing for "rising star" politicians.  Previous years have included Gabrielle Giffords and Erik Paulsen (2005), Kamala Harris and Jon Husted (2006), Marco Rubio and Kasim Reed (2007), Chris Coons and Kyrsten Sinema (2008), and Kelly Ayotte and Stephanie Rawlings-Blake (2009).  Plus others who ran for higher office or otherwise became more prominent.  So I like to keep track of it.

    Here's the current batch:

    Chicago alderman Will Burns, Texas state representative Stefani Carter, Seattle City Council president Sally Clark, Alaska state representative Mia Costello, Arizona state senator Rich Crandall, Missouri state senator Tom Dempsey, Arizona state treasurer Doug Ducey, Kentucky state auditor Adam Edelen, Colorado House Speaker Mark Ferrandino, Montana Superintendent of Public Education Denise Juneau, San Jose city councilman Sam Liccardo, and Mia Love, mayor of Saratoga Springs, Utah.

    Also, Maryland state delegate Heather Mizeur, Massachusetts lieutenant governor Tim Murray, Boston city councilwoman Ayanna Pressley, Oklahoma House Speaker T. W. Shannon, South Carolina state senator Vincent Sheheen, North Carolina state senator Josh Stein, Michigan House Speaker pro-tem John Walsh, Arkansas House Speaker Darrin Williams, Delaware state representative Lincoln Willis, South Carolina attorney general Alan Wilson, New York state senator Lee Zeldin, and Minnesota House Speaker Kurt Zellers.

    They seem to like young elected officials with unusual biographies and impressive/fancy educations.  And we've already heard of a handful of those people.  But I wouldn't be surprised if a few of them eventually went on to bigger things.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 11:09:46 AM PST

    •  Will Burns turned down an IL-2 run a while back (0+ / 0-)

      That was probably his one shot of getting into higher office.

      Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

      by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 11:11:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Reading about some of these politicians (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, MichaelNY

      I wonder, if Boston councilwoman Ayanna Pressley might be a great choice for interim Senator.

      She worked as an aide to Rep Joe Kennedy II and Sen Kerry, becoming Kerry's political director a few years ago, so I think she is qualified. She is only 38 so this could raise her profile for a future political run.

      Only issue is whether she would have to resign her council seat or not.

    •  Looking at that 2005 class for fun (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt

      Gabby Giffords and Erik Paulsen, but also Jon Bruning, Mark Kirk, and Paul Ryan. Also some stars that, well, shot for the moon and missed (Robin Carnahan, Artur Davis, Trey Grayson, Tom Kean Jr, Kendrick Meek, Andrew Romanoff, Michael Steele, Heather Wilson). And a couple who haven't done too great or too poorly, and 8 I haven't heard of.

      So definitely going to be looking up the names on this list, in my continuous quest to be a politics hipster (was rooting for Kyrsten Sinema in her congressional primary, knew about Sarah Palin in 2007).

      Vaccinate your child. Vaccinate yourself. | Pro-transit, pro-gun, anti-NRA progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 12:16:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Other classes. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits, gabjoh

        The 2006 class included some other people who went on to do well:

        Adolfo Carrión, Jr.
        Jack Markell
        Todd Rokita
        Josh Shapiro
        Greg Stanton
        And some other people who missed or haven't done that well:
        Andre Bauer
        Deborah Markowitz
        Rob McKenna
        Andrew Roraback (although he might become a judge)
        Darren White
        Plus Lisa Madigan and others who haven't changed jobs, but might end up getting promoted.

        The 2007 class had some particularly bad luck: Susan Bysiewicz, Brian Krolicki, and Dustin McDaniel.  But also Sean Parnell.

        The 2008 class had Robert Hurt and David Pepper.  And I wouldn't be at all surprised if Lena Taylor, Doug Gansler, or Jamie Raskin ended up in Congress or statewide office.  But it also included Jack Conway, Mike Cox, Brian Dubie, and Karen Handel.  Although even then--Karen Handel basically came within an inch of being elected Governor, and I doubt we've heard the last of Jack Conway.

        2009?  I forgot about Florida L.G. Jennifer Carroll, although she might not have hitched her wagon to the right star.  Also, JB Van Hollen and Josh Penry.  But Natalie Tennant--again, I'm sure she'll attempt higher office.

        2010?  I forgot about now-Governor Steve Bullock and now-Speaker Tina Kotek, plus there's Julian Castro and Sonia Chang-Diaz.  And Tomeka Hart, although I don't know how much she hurt herself with her pointless primary campaign.  

        2011?  That's a little recent for anyone to have moved up, but Jessica Lappin is aiming for Manhattan Borough President.  Which is not necessarily even a promotion from the City Council these days.  And last I checked Gina Raimondo was Rhode Island's most popular politician.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 05:10:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Bleeding Heart Land with great updates on this: (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

    From Harkin:

    During an interview with me/Radio Iowa today, Harkin said he had made the decision not to seek reelection before this past week's vote on the filibuster rule in the U.S. Senate. (Harkin sought bigger changes than were made.) Harkin said he's been thinking about retirement since the last election.
    "It boils down to two things: a promise I made to my wife, Ruth, and to myself, that we were going to live together and do some things together that we've often talked about, never been able to do, but we want to do it before it's too late.  We're both in great health. I have no health problems whatsoever. I'm very blessed in that way. Both of us are, but there are some things that we want to do that we've never been able to do. As you know, this job is pretty all-consuming," Harkin said.  
    Brad Zaun is seriously considering this: https://twitter.com/...
    He was the guy who Boswell pwned in 2010.

    All that and so much more here: http://www.bleedingheartland.com/...

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 11:32:38 AM PST

  •  IA-SEN: If Steve King is the GOP nominee (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

    it seems like that puts a lot of 2016 GOP presidential hopefuls in an awkward spot. Have to campaign in IA, but maybe dont want to campaign with King.

    On the Dem side, I wonder if Hillary Clinton campaigns for the Dem nominee. I'm waiting to see which race she chooses to re-enter politics. Could be the MA-SEN special, or VA-GOV, where Clinton friend Terry McAuliffe is the Dem nominee. Could be IA-SEN or some other race next year(NH SEN?).

  •  More good news for CA's fiscal state: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, lordpet8

    http://www.calitics.com/...
    Senate President Steinberg to allot bonus tax revenue prudently.

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 11:41:44 AM PST

  •  BTW: State legislative districts and education. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, gabjoh

    I was wondering about Mizeur's district, so I looked up some things for the MD legislature, and the 2003-2013 District 15 has an unreal 80.2% of residents over 25 with at least a Bachelor's degree--the highest in the state by nearly 15 points.  And yes, it's the Bethesda district adjacent to Western D.C. in Montgomery County.

    I wondered: Was the highest of any (2003-2013) state legislative district in the country?  

    (It's not necessarily the wealthiest, though--the MHI was a bit higher in Howard County's 9A.)  Mizeur, meanwhile, is in the nearby District 20.

    Anyway, New York Senate's District 26 was even higher--80.8%.  And yeah, that's Liz Krueger's Upper East Side district.  But then there was Cambridge's Twenty-Fifth's Middlesex District: 85.6%.  The Eighth Suffolk District, Fifteenth Norfolk District, and New York's Assembly District 66 also topped 80%.  Nothing else in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maryland, or California did.

    As for MHI, Darien/Rowayton's Connecticut House District 141 had a median household income of some $172,089.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 11:49:15 AM PST

  •  Couple of other thoughts about IA-Senate (14+ / 0-)

    I used to live in Iowa, so this one hits home.

    1). During the next couple of weeks/months, some prognosticators will move this seat to tossup. Don't believe them. It's Lean Dem at worst, Likely Dem more realistically, unless their is some indication Steve King won't run. And by the way, this is the worst time for the RSCC to try to talk King out of running, since many people thought Vilsack would be competitive against him and she wasn't (those people were very misinformed - she was perceived as a Washington outsider by many in Western Iowa and the evangelicals who dominate that part of the state were going to turn out during the presidential election). King is probably feeling pretty good about himself right now.

    2). The only possible way King loses the Republican nomination is a "clown car" effect where there's a legitimate mainstream candidate like Latham running, and several conservatives also run. Remember, Huckabee and Santorum - both strong defenders of Akin and Mourdock - won the Republican caucus in this state. Conservatives are really strong on the Republican side, and they don't listen to reason for the most part.

    3). King is not electable statewide in Iowa. Some of you will say, "well, what if it's a year like 2010?" Doesn't matter - still unelectable. King's profile is closer to O'Donnell, Angle and Buck then to say, Pat Toomey (who despite his conservatism is a actually a pretty astute politician).

    No reason to panic about this unless there is some evidence that King isn't going to run. And even then, don't underestimate Iowa Republicans shooting themselves in the foot with a Brad Zaun or Bob VanderPlaats.  

    •  100% agree (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, sawolf, aamail6, MichaelNY

      If it's Braley v. King then this is likely DEM

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

      by BKGyptian89 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 12:26:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  But what if he achieves self-awareness? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chachy, MichaelNY

      That's definitely my biggest concern, that he'll realize he can't win statewide. Or somehow gets/is risk-averse (however, he seemed to move up from state senate quickly enough, so I don't think that's the case).

      Vaccinate your child. Vaccinate yourself. | Pro-transit, pro-gun, anti-NRA young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 12:34:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  one thing I'm worried about (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, James Allen, MichaelNY, betelgeux

        is that, because Grassley is a likely 2016 retirement, King realizes that no Dem will be as strong in 2016 as Braley in 2014 and decides to wait two more years and let Latham run unopposed this time.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 12:55:40 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  I don't mean this as (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      questioning your assessment of our chances in this race.  You used to live there, so it goes without saying you know more than I do about the state.  I'm just curious though, as to why a state that's that blue still has a senator like Grassley.  Is he good at portraying himself as more moderate than he is?  Or does he just clean up the conservative vote while others stay home?

      •  Well (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I think Harkin is further left than Grassley is right, and he kept getting re-elected too.

        20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 01:47:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'm from Iowa, too, and disagree somewhat... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...with markhanna, to the extent that he's assuming Steve King runs.

        I wouldn't assume that.  He might, but he might not.  He's passed on statewide runs before.  I suspect he hears the chatter directly that he can't win statewide, and he at least entertains it as something to consider.  That distinguishes him from the likes of Angle, O'Donnell, etc.

        I agree that King cannot win.

        But Latham could.  And possibly other garden variety conservatives could.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:53:25 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I hope you're wrong (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I have no inside information indicating King would run, and you're right - he's passed on statewide races before. But he won bigger than expected the last time around, and he's clearly ambitious, so that makes me think he'll pull the trigger this time around.

          On the other hand, King is a media whore, definitely loves the high profile the congressional seat gives him. He might not want to give that up, particularly if he is more self-aware than I'm giving him credit for.

    •  Branstad beat Vander Plaats (0+ / 0-)

      I would assume King is a lock against Latham.  Favored okay, a lock, no.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 04:13:54 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Pollster asks: Why does Washington not elect Rs (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

    as governor?

    Washington Republican voters don't know.  Good luck with that, guys.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 12:34:02 PM PST

  •  Ken Cuccinelli opposes VA's EC-rigging (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, MichaelNY

    Link to my diary about this on the DKos main page.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 12:49:48 PM PST

  •  IN-9 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

    Shelli Yoder has officially won an appointment for the Monroe County Council. She beat out a former Donnelly staffer, a community activist who I always hear a lot about and ever so crazy but kinda lovable John Tilford, who she also beat in the congressional primary.

    She will be up for a full term in 2014 so this likely takes her out of the running for IN-9, although it sets her up well if she wants to run in 2016. 45% of the vote in a district like this with little outside help is very remarkable. Young didn't get caught sleeping either. He campaigned nearly as hard as he did in 2010 and spent most of his war chest.

  •  So is Harkin the last retirement for 2014? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, betelgeux

    The following are all over 70 years old and up for re-election in 2014:

    Lautenberg - definitely running
    Levin
    Inohofe
    Roberts
    Cochran
    Alexander
    Baucus
    McConnell - definitely running

    I am sad to see Harkin go but this is bound to happen more and more in the next 3 elections. The Dems have a lot of old Senators that will be retiring. They have 17 Senators who will be over 70 at their next re-election.

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 01:33:47 PM PST

    •  Mike Enzi has (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, MichaelNY, betelgeux

      been a rumored retirement; I believe he's had a bout with cancer already and he's going to be about 70 on election day.

      Thad Cochran, Frank Lautenberg, and Carl Levin are maybes.  I'd guess one of the three retires.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 01:48:32 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks for the additional info. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Of course, even if Enzi or Cochran retire, those seats will stay safe Republican.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 02:09:13 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  If Mississippi Republicans put up a flawed nominee (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, betelgeux

          and we can get Attorney General John Hood to run we might have a shot.  He probably has his eye on governor instead, but with Mississippi's off year elections he wouldn't have to give up his current office.  With anyone else though their ceiling isn't much higher than their floor.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 02:12:28 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  The problem is (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            drhoosierdem, MichaelNY

            I can't think of any super-flawed potential nominees.

            Palazzo and Nunnellee aren't great, but they're not Akin or Angle or O'Donnell.  And Gregg Harper seems competent.  I'd expect the nominee to almost definitely be one of those three or a statewide officeholder, none of whom are known to be anything but generic Republican.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 02:42:42 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I doubt Hood will run (0+ / 0-)

            given the low chance of winning. I presume he'd be more likely to run for Governor some day.

            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

            by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 05:15:40 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  One second thought, though (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, WisJohn, betelgeux

              How quickly is the black and other minority (Hispanic, Asian) population growing in Mississippi? Because the more it grows, the fewer white votes a Democrat needs to win.

              It's so odd to be talking about Democrats in Mississippi needing black votes, a couple of days after I watched "Lincoln" with my girlfriend. The Republicans were the party of liberation and desegregation and the Democrats were the party of racism, Jim Crow, and the Ku Klux Klan. We don't think about this a lot, but American politics are really kind of upside down.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 05:18:06 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  If there's any indication... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, James Allen

                there was a straw poll amongst the public universities and colleges of MS and they went 55-45 for Obama.  They do this every election and they usually roughly match the final statewide results.  Not this time.  Can't find the link though.  Though there was a mini-race riot after the election at Ole Miss: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

                Anyway, how did you like "Lincoln?"

                I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

                by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 05:26:47 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  We liked it quite a lot (4+ / 0-)

                  A black friend of mine pointed out that it does not address Lincoln's prejudice to a historically accurate degree, but I think it's a really good film for a politics buff, because it shows a lot of behind-the-scenes dealing relating to the vote in the House on the 13th Amendment. It also all feels really natural and as if it's happening in real time.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 06:06:23 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Lincoln's prejudice was mostly in the past (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    by the time the movie takes place.  When he first ran for President, he expressed strong doubts on whether racial coexistence was possible.  But he changed as a person during the presidency.  During his second inauguration speech, he was the first president to speak of letting black people vote (although he conditioned it as being a thing for the near future and not right away and only for educated black men).  But compared to some of the tripe the Democrats (and some conservative Republicans) were saying about former slaves invading their hometowns and wrecking their way of life, what Lincoln said was fairly courageous.  
                    Hard to believe that the Dem floor leader against the 13th amendment was from NYC, but then again, that was a vastly different NYC than exists today.

                    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

                    by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:29:36 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Staten Island/South Brooklyn are still (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      KingofSpades

                      conservative today though.

                      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                      politicohen.com
                      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                      by jncca on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 08:02:38 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  New York was a very racist and conservative state (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      KingofSpades

                      The Draft Riots that centered around Union Square, close to where I now live, involved white mobs blaming blacks for the Civil War and essentially conducting a pogrom against them. And the Dutch Burghers who ran the state had a very strong New York-Virginia axis.

                      I definitely agree Lincoln grew as a person during his presidency, and I presented that argument to my friends. The thing that is an imponderable, though, is how he would have handled Reconstruction, had he lived. Frederick Douglass was among many radicals who were livid with Lincoln for proposing that former Confederate states be readmitted to the Union after only 10% of their population swore loyalty oaths, and Lincoln apparently planned on having Union troops occupy the South for only one year. But what he would have done if, after Union troops were withdrawn or even while they were still there, the Ku Klux Klan and other racist organizations terrorized freedmen and local white Republicans, we will never know.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 08:03:18 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                •  I found the link to the student mock election: (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  bumiputera

                  I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

                  by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 03:12:45 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  I think about this all the time, actually (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, MichaelNY, James Allen

                Every time I type a comment about the racist tendencies among Republicans, I feel compelled to also apologize for Democratic actions during the previous party systems*. Democrats will be getting 10-15% of the white vote in Mississippi no matter what happens, as that is a hard floor. Once the minority population is 45% of the electorate, Mississippi will be a tossup state as Democrats have a 90-95% floor among minorities in the state. That should happen around 2025 or so, given that the non-Hispanic white population was 57.7% in 2011 (and probably an electorate that is about 60% non-Hispanic white).

                *Not that party system / realignment literature is particularly persuasive, but in lieu of a better theory to cite I'm going with it anyway.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 05:35:29 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Oops (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, MichaelNY

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 05:37:25 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Note that (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, MichaelNY

                  The non-Hispanic white population plummeted from 60.2% in 2005 to 57.7% in 2011. That's a 2.5% drop in only 6 years. Extrapolate that out to the 2024 presidential election and you've got a population that is 52.3% non-Hispanic white and 47.7% minority.

                  Obviously the voting pool will be somewhat more white, so let's assume a 55-45 breakdown.

                  10% of the white vote and 90% of the minority vote isn't enough to win. But if you can get 15% of the white vote and 93% of the minority vote, you get exactly 50.1%. Definitely winnable.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 05:46:52 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Even further (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, James Allen

                    In the 2028 Presidential election the population will be 50.7% white and 49.3% minority. The electorate will probably be something like 53-47.

                    Again, the 10-90 percents aren't enough to win, but this time all you'd need to do is get either 15% of the white vote or 93% of the minority vote (with some help from a 3rd party here, because that only gets you to 49.01%) in order to win or have a chance at winning.

                    Demographics and racial polarization work to our advantage long-term in Mississippi.

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 05:50:19 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                •  I feel no need to apologize for the Democrats (5+ / 0-)

                  I am more defined by ideology than political party, and I would have been a staunch Republican in the 19th and early 20th centuries, unless I was a Socialist.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 06:07:46 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Exactly. (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, jncca, betelgeux

                    The Democrats of today are a whole different animal from before.

                    I kind of wish that we were more like Europeans in that we would have changed our party name when massive ideological shifts like that happened.

                    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                    by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:07:34 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  hmm. Not me. (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, gabjoh

                    I would likely have left the party in '48 with Van Buren, but Republicans/Whigs of any era have never had much appeal for me, aside from maybe Teddy Roosevelt.  Which is funny to say because before the 1950s I don't know if anyone in my family was a Democrat.  My father's family were Republicans, my mother's were Communists/socialists.  I would certainly have been uncomfortable with a large portion of the Democratic Party back then, but probably wouldn't have felt better in the Republican Party.

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:34:21 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  You wouldn't have felt comfortable (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      WisJohn

                      voting for Lincoln? And in the 19th century, when the choice was between Democratic supporters of the Ku Klux Klan and Republicans who were anti-racist, you would have still been uncomfortable with the choice? I feel that we always have a choice of imperfect parties. The Democrats will never be leftist enough for me, not by a tremendous long shot. But just as I vote for Democratic candidates without a second though, given the alternative, I have no doubt that, if I hadn't been voting for the Socialist Party - USA in those days, I would have voted Republican, probably until FDR.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 08:06:43 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  race was not the only issue. (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY

                        It might have affected how I voted for individual candidates, but I don't think it would have affected my party membership.  Though depending on where I lived it might have.  At the time 3/4 of my family was still in Europe.

                        I assume I would've voted for Lincoln (I'm not a big fan of his but there wasn't a better choice), but I've voted for a Republican or two before and that doesn't make me any less of a Democrat.

                        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                        by James Allen on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 08:29:03 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  I think the issue is (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

                        with some glaring exceptions I think the Democratic Party since Jefferson has stood for some principles I share, and has become better over time, and addressed the problems it has had.  The Republican Party with some exceptions IMHO abandoned any principles I might have shared with them when Hayes became president, and over time they have not sought to become better, but to mire the country in some of its worst problems, and have become much worse.

                        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                        by James Allen on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 08:50:28 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Rutherford B. Hayes (0+ / 0-)

                          betrayed the freedmen and collaborated with the Democrats to end Reconstruction. But I think that at least until after TR, the Republicans remained less racist than the Democrats.

                          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                          by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 12:35:51 AM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Unfair (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, bumiputera

                            Hayes had very little choice. By the time the election was resolved, Democrats were in full control of Florida, South Carolina and Louisiana. In order to restore Republican rule, it would have not just taken federal intervention but an outright invasion, and the House was controlled by Democrats.

                            In South Carolina for instance, the Republican Chief Justice and Senate President(who was black) had both backed Hampton.

                          •  I agree with you (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            Zack from the SFV, bumiputera

                            I was unfair because I was ignorant. I just read up on Hayes. He seems to have been a very decent man and a rather good president who did what he could to advance good, moral government under very difficult political conditions, given that a hostile Democratic majority was in control of Congress. This statement of his is still very relevant today:

                            In church it occurred to me that it is time for the public to hear that the giant evil and danger in this country, the danger which transcends all others, is the vast wealth owned or controlled by a few persons. Money is power. In Congress, in state legislatures, in city councils, in the courts, in the political conventions, in the press, in the pulpit, in the circles of the educated and the talented, its influence is growing greater and greater. Excessive wealth in the hands of the few means extreme poverty, ignorance, vice, and wretchedness as the lot of the many. It is not yet time to debate about the remedy. The previous question is as to the danger—the evil. Let the people be fully informed and convinced as to the evil. Let them earnestly seek the remedy and it will be found. Fully to know the evil is the first step towards reaching its eradication.

                            Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                            by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 12:58:45 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  He may have miscalculated (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, jncca, bumiputera

                            But Reconstruction was ending in any case. There was no money, and Northern public opinion was increasingly turning against the idea of using force to keep in office southern "black" governments that were unable to stand up on their own.

                            Of course the situation was more complicated than that. But Hayes wanted to cut a deal, and he thought, wrongly as it turned out, that he had won a better deal than he really did. He thought that the deal made - splitting the difference in the disputed states with the Presidential results going Republican and the Gubernatorial Results going Democratic - was  basically the Old "Conservative", aka Southern Democratic proposal of the late 1860s under which Blacks and Republicans would be allowed to control federal politics in the south in exchange for letting the Democrats control things at the state level.

                            For a bit this held. Republicans did decently in the South in the 1880s, winning 47% or so consistently in North Carolina, and remaining competitive presidential in Tennessee and Virginia(if never winning them). What Hayes failed to grasp was that giving up control at the state level meant effectively destroying the party, and his actions left it defenseless when the Bourbons lost power to the Tillmanite populists in the 1890s.

                          •  I just read Capitol Men (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            http://www.amazon.com/...

                            It covers this very well. I think you have an accurate summary.

                            28, Male, MA-07 (hometown MI-06)

                            by bumiputera on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 07:18:54 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

      •  I wonder if the DSCC (0+ / 0-)

        can convince former Governors Dave Freudenthal (WY) and Brad Henry (OK) to run if Enzi and Inhofe retire. They would make these races competitive, but I doubt either would decide to run. Their states are so red that there's still a good chance they would lose, and I'm sure they'd rather be remembered as popular two-term governors rather than failed Senate candidates. The same goes for Mike Beebe and Steve Beshear.

        Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

        by betelgeux on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 02:01:27 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Freudenthal would get crushed (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, James Allen, BeloitDem

          Henry maybe somewhat less so and he could possibly carry the 2nd district and maybe the 4th.  I remember PPP showing that while Freudenthal was quite popular in Wyoming, it did not extend to federal office and he was getting blown out by 25+ points against either incumbent or generic R.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 02:13:48 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'm going to say No (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf, James Allen

          on the same basis as sawolf's analysis. But where I'm not sure I agree is that Beebe couldn't win a Senate race. I'm not positive Beshear couldn't, either - say, against Paul.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 02:42:34 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think Beshear could definitely beat Paul (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            but he'd have a hard time against McConnell.  Beebe would have to be running against a weak candidate like Darr to be a good bet.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 02:56:57 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Why do you think that about Beebe? (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              betelgeux, Zack from the SFV

              He's the most popular politician in the state, I thought. Given that, couldn't he win a Senate election, even against a non-weak candidate? I'm thinking he could be someone like Manchin who would be able to win a Senate seat in a state that's trending Republican and keep it for some time.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 03:00:30 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think for a Democrat he's very popular (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                but GradyDem's descriptions, borne out by recent elections, make it pretty clear that even a popular Democratic incumbent is not heavily favored anymore (also I think sawolf or wm pointed out Beebe was polling poorly in 2010 in the senate race against Boozman).  The state has changed much in 4 years.  Against a middling Republican I think Beebe would be 50-50.  Against Darr he'd be favored.  Against a strong Republican he'd probably lose.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 03:04:36 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Disagreed fully (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Beebe could beat any Republican in the state, maybe except Boozman.

              Similarly, Beshear could absolutely beat McConnell. I think you're underestimating Blue Dogs here in the South.

              23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

              by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 04:56:54 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't think we disagree as much (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, sawolf

                I think Beshear would have a chance against McConnell, but it'd be hard, and I said it'd be hard.  He'd have a better chance against Paul.

                I think Beebe would be as good a candidate as any except maybe Pryor, and I said he'd have to face a weak candidate like Darr "to be a good bet".  I think he'd have a decent chance of beating some others, but it wouldn't be anywhere near a safe race if the Republican was a decent candidate.  And if the Republican was strong I expect it would lean Republican.

                I think we disagree on the margins, but not so much.  I think both would have to be able to convince voters that they are the guy the state knows as a good governor (not a national Democrat), and the Republican doesn't stand for the same common sense values that they share with the state.  I think Kentucky would be more likely to go with Beshear on that against Paul, and Beebe against Darr.  Other AR Republicans are too mainstream to make that case against.  And McConnell would have too much money for Beshear to be favored, but he'd still have a chance.

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 05:05:00 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  I think Beebe would be favored against any Republican in the state except Boozman, bar none.

                  Do I think he'll win every county like he did in 2010? No. But he starts off at anywhere between a roughly 2-10 point lead among first and second tier candidates.

                  If Beshear entered the race against McConnell today, I'd imagine the race would move to tossup. I think he'd beat him in the end with cover from outside groups to help erase McConnell's money advantage.

                  23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

                  by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 07:43:44 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  My guesses (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, askew, betelgeux

      Lautrnberg
      Levin
      Cochran
      Johnson
      Enzi

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

      by BKGyptian89 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 02:22:36 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Lautenberg - yes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, MichaelNY

        Levin - no
        Enzi - yes

        the others probably not.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 02:54:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Agreed (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I don't think Levin retires, at all. But I said the same thing about Harkin, so who knows. Enzi I never gave much thought to, he's only 68 and in his 3rd term, I'd be kind of surprised if he retired.

          Alexander, Baucus, Cochran and Inhofe - I don't see it
          Roberts - possibly

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:10:09 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I think Lautenburg will retire, Enzi and Roberts (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, askew, betelgeux

      too, Levin and Baucus...probably not, Tim Johnson..possibly

    •  I'm not sure Lautenberg will definitely run (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, betelgeux

      in the end. And I'm positive this is not the last retirement.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 04:44:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Iowa CD partisan averages (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

     photo IACDData2012_zps9340af29.png
    Using the 2006-2010 downballot races, Obama overperformed very slightly in the 1st and 2nd and underperformed very slightly in the 3rd and 4th compared to average.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 01:41:13 PM PST

  •  Roy Herron elected TN Dem chairman (4+ / 0-)

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 01:43:04 PM PST

  •  Battleground Texas and new districts coming. (5+ / 0-)

    As some of you know, Jeremy Bird is spearheading an organization that seeks to budget millions in the next several years for voter registration and mobilization, particularly of the state's Hispanic and AA population.  The kind of stuff wwmiv has been calling for.
    http://www.burntorangereport.com/...
    Anyway, with the court causing re-redistricting in Texas in a way even further from the Republicans' original maps, could this effort help Democrats gain some in the State House and maybe a new Congressional district?

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 02:01:09 PM PST

    •  In 2012... (0+ / 0-)

      Democrats were close to getting up to 57-58 State House districts (three GOP-held ones that were narrow losses for us) instead of the 55 we got, with one swingy district in DFW that wasn't strongly contested.  With a court-drawn map, we'd probably get more out of DFW, but where else?

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 02:57:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Houston (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        And we can probably long-term get a few of the gulf seats to slip, and perhaps Odessa.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 03:00:18 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  What's with Odessa? (0+ / 0-)

          I once saw a significant pocket of Latino and AA pop. there, but it's in a sea of red.  Is that pop. jumping?

          Fun fact: The mayor of my longtime hometown here in NJ was from Odessa, TX and was a "pepette" cheerleader for the Permian Panthers.

          I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

          by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 03:10:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Odessa (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, James Allen

            Is plurality Hispanic at all three of VAP, CVAP, and All Pop, has a low illegal immigrant/immigrant population, but has a very low SSVR. If we can register and turn out those voters, Odessa would be light red instead of dark red. Midland is heading in the same direction, though is still plurality white (should be plurality Hispanic by 2020 - around the same time that Odessa turns majority Hispanic by every metric... it's already majority in All Pop).

            The point here is that it could force Republicans to put those two counties in the 23rd in 2020, which is great for us because San Antonio would then be able to anchor two distinct districts - and be required to.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 03:14:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Oh, what town? (0+ / 0-)

            Or is it somewhere in Central Jersey I've never heard of...

            Vaccinate your child. Vaccinate yourself. | Pro-transit, pro-gun, anti-NRA young black urban progressive | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

            by gabjoh on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 07:15:19 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  The court congressional map (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, wwmiv

      Should undo the 35th district and give Doggett a fully Travis-based district, and then make a 2nd Hispanic majority seat in the San Antonio area, where (ugh) Ciro Rodriguez will probably run. And it would also tweak the 23rd to make it more Hispanic and therefore safe for Gallego.

      Unless wwmiv has something to add I think that would be the gist of the congressional map.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:13:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's difficult (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        You can't really do that in a good way now with Gallego as the incumbent.

        Instead, a 4th fajita strip makes more sense when retreating Doggett's seat into Travis.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:28:04 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Ah yeah (0+ / 0-)

          That possibility was in the back of my mind too. So where would that fajita strip go, McAllen?

          24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

          by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:29:46 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Would a 4th fajita strip be likely in your opinion (0+ / 0-)

          I'm drawing all the Dem districts a re-redistricting could leave us with and I dunno if I can squeeze out a 4th one and not have it trail off to around Caldwell County.

          I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

          by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:32:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  AR-SEN: National Republicans want Cotton (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, betelgeux

    to run. They appear to have shrugged off a Darr candidacy.

    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

    •  Who do you think would win a primary? (4+ / 0-)

      I'm more afraid of Cotton than Darr.

      •  Agreed (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, KingofSpades

        But am not all that impressed with Cotton. He's been a congressman for... 25 days.

        I think either the Reps. from the 1st or 2nd would be better. Pryor will run the margins up there.

        It's funny because I think the two most culturally conservative states with Democratic senators that are up in 2014 (Arkansas & Louisiana) are a lot easier holds than WV, SD and Alaska.

        I'd rate each as Lean D, but the support in both states is harder I think.

        23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

        by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 11:49:14 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  No, Cotton would be an excellent recruit (4+ / 0-)

          much more so than Mark Darr. Tim Griffin is obviously the best, having represented Little Rock, but he's out. So is Rick Crawford, though he's deviated from the base quite a bit in what he said so I doubt he would win a primary.

          Cotton is extremely intelligent, has no record to attack and practically ran solely on fiscal conservatism (which never worked in AR-04 up until now) and won. He's pretty respected with people who know him.

          Pryor will beat Darr.

          •  I don't disagree (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, KingofSpades

            But his opponent was inept and Obama was at the top of the ticket.

            I think Pryor would be lean D against Cotton. He's green, relatively untested and lacks the long history Pryor has in the state.

            I don't think it'd be a blow out, but I think Pryor starts 5 points ahead of Cotton. Things change for sure, but I feel pretty confident he will be reelected.

            23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

            by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 05:00:36 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Cotton would be formitable (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, James Allen

              He represents the part of the state that Pryor needs to run up the score in, basically removing that possibility from Pryor.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 05:06:05 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  And echoing Grady (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Cotton is an exceptional policy mind for Republicans, and a definite rising star. If he seeks higher office and wins this coming cycle it will further solidify his Presidential potential sometime down the line. He's young, telegenic, intelligent, and to be honest he's my favorite Republican.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 05:12:10 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  The part of the state (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sawolf, MichaelNY

                that Pryor needs to run up the score in are in the 1st and 2nd districts. If he ties in the 4th, he'll be winning statewide.

                Cotton is policy minded like Paul Ryan is policy minded. In a place as poor as Arkansas, the specific policies he's advocating I have a hard time believing would be all too popular.

                Cuts to entitlement programs are not going to endear him to the center in Arkansas.

                Forgive me for sounding a bit too much like a front pager, but if I've learned anything working in Louisiana, its that this state and many of its neighbors support the idea of limited government and entitlement reform, but when you actually implement these types of policies, people get really pissed off.

                Bobby Jindal is learning this right now with his Medicaid cuts. The parts of the state that are the most conservative are the parts that are pushing back against them the most.

                23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

                by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 07:48:59 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Um no (0+ / 0-)

                  He needs the old-school Democratic areas, which are also in the 4th.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 08:20:02 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  The 4th is less Dem than the 1st and 2nd (4+ / 0-)

                    for every single year as well as the last-4 cycle average, I found that the 1st (4 cycle average) and then the 2nd (2010 avg) were the most Democratic in the state with the 4th being barely more Dem than the statewide total and the 3rd being significantly more Republican than the state.  I could see a map where Pryor ekes out a win where he only carries the 1st and 2nd and comes close in the 4th, so it is possible.  However he clearly does need to do well in the eastern part of the district if not keeping it close districtwide, but it isn't as if Dems have needed to win the county covering Texarkana to win the state by any means.

                    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                    by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 08:31:59 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  My understanding (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      James Allen

                      Was that he needed to win the southeast handily, irrespective of whether or not he wins the whole district. Is that not the case?

                      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                      by wwmiv on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 08:43:45 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  He needs to win the south handedly (3+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        James Allen, MichaelNY, bumiputera

                        This is an example of a Democrat who lost with 47% of the statewide vote:

                        http://upload.wikimedia.org/...

                      •  It is, but the western part of the district (1+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        James Allen

                        is a good deal more Republican than the eastern part.  Especially since Cotton might run up the margin in normally Dem leaning places like his home county of Yell.  So yes, Pryor will need to win big in the southeastern part of the 4th, but the district itself is pretty much similar to the whole state so it's not ridiculous to think of Pryor winning by posting bigger than average margins in the 1st and 2nd than usual, which is all I was trying to say.  I still think he should try to win the 4th, but don't be shocked if he were to eke out a victory with just the 1st and 2nd.

                        I have this race labeled as tossup and I think as long as Darr is the opponent that our odds are good.

                        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                        by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:16:47 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  ... (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          MichaelNY

                          I'm going to go with Grady's analysis here, given that he's from the state and has generally been acquitted well when it comes to his statements thereof. Given that my statement is more congruous with his previous statements (and even statements within this subthread), I stand by my comment.

                          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                          by wwmiv on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:20:08 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Well, sawolf is right that Pryor probably only tie (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY, sawolf

                            in the new 4th congressional district because of the new western conservative parts of the district.

                            But there's no question he needs to win the old 4th by a big margin, and particularly the counties in South Arkansas.

  •  IA-Sen: Christie Vilsack's name is being (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    drhoosierdem, MichaelNY

    mentioned much more then her husbands. She could be a strong candidate. Iowa has never a had a female Governor, Senator, or Congressperson. Maybe now's the time.

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 02:44:17 PM PST

    •  Or if Braley runs, St. Sen. Liz Mathis lives (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      drhoosierdem, MichaelNY

      in his district.

      20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

      by ndrwmls10 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 02:55:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Bleeding Heartland mentioned her as a possibility (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, LordMike, MichaelNY

        but then worried that if she runs for Cong., Dems lose their majority (she has a swingy district).  They did, however, suggest Sen. Pam Jochum of Dubuque (profile: http://ballotpedia.org/... and https://www.legis.iowa.gov/... ) as she is a party leader and is close to Harkin and the party organization.  She also has a Safe D district.  However, she is the Senate President and that is a tough position to quit.

        I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

        by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 03:05:28 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Mathis' district is swingy, but she lucked out (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, BeloitDem, MichaelNY

          Republicans didn't heavily contest it and the Republican they got (Randi Shannon) went nuts and dropped out because she saw the federal government as being illegitimate.

          I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

          by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 03:07:18 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Oh god that was the person running against Mathis? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, MichaelNY

            did not make that connection.

            That being said, I thought Mathis acquitted herself well in the special election and wouldn't mind seeing her move up, although the majority is obviously important. Besides which, it's high time Iowa finally sent a woman to Congress!

          •  She faced a legit opponents when (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades, MichaelNY

            she won her seat in a 2011 special election. I went over there to campaign for a weekend. The voters in this district are some of the nicest people in the nation to canvas.

            I wouldn't worry too much about losing the seat without Mathis. While she won't be beaten in this swingy seat, I am confident that a good Dem could keep the seat. It is all about early voting in Iowa. As long as the Dem can dominate early voting, they will win.

            M, 23, School: MI-12, Home: NY-18

            by slacks on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 04:09:47 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  It gives her stature (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Honestly, he'd prefer any other female to Christie Vilsack, as she bombed in her campaign against King.

          As much as this looks like it could be an opportunity to increase gender equality in the Senate, I don't see how we could win with a state senator unless the nominee is King. If it is Latham, Latham will win against Jochum or Mathis or even C. Vilsack.

          What would be nice, however, is if Braley ran and Jochum ran for his seat. That puts a female in the Iowa delegation who could run in the future when Grassley retires.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 03:11:07 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Did she run a good campaign in 2012? (0+ / 0-)

      This is a genuine question. I realize she lost by a significant margin.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 05:45:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Texas (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY, betelgeux

    I have been skeptical of the CW that Texas can be competitive in the short term.  However, looking at the 2012 vote totals, something is really off regarding Texas.  The total vote count in Texas in 2012 was 7.99 million, however, the total vote count in Florida, a state with 9 whole electoral votes fewer than Texas, was 8.2 million.  Theoretically if Texas had as high a turn out as Florida, the vote total should exceed 10 million, and be closer to 11 million.  Granted, I do realize that a great deal of the Texas population is not citizens and cannot vote.  However, something is seriously off if Florida can actually turn out a higher total in a presidential year than Texas.  If the state were registered and engaged to its full potential, what would could the electorate look like?

    •  It would be 35% Hispanic easily (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, James Allen, MichaelNY

      Which puts it within the territory needed for competitive as 13-15% of the electorate has been AA for some time.

      The electorate usually is 20-25% Hispanic.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 03:17:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Texas is a much younger state. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, James Allen

      In 2012, the 18+ population was 18.9 million, vs. 15.3 million for Florida. Plus the hispanic population in texas surely includes many more non-citizens (probably about 1.5 million or so), given that they include mostly mexicans, rather than cubans and puerto ricans. So that explains a fair bit of the disparity, though definitely not all of it.

      To wwmiv's point, the 18+ hispanic population of Texas in 2012 was 34.5%, but again that includes non-citizens. Accounting for that I think the ceiling for hispanic participation at the moment would be in the high-20s (but steadily rising).

      •  Yes (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        But I believe that you can engineer an electorate if the effort is put in that would be more minority than the population as a whole or at least close to it. Look, for example, at North Carolina under OFA. Or Georgia under OFA in 2008.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 04:04:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Florida also would have had 8.4 million votes (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      If the lines weren't so long, according to the Orlando Sentinel. Not sure if this has been posted yet.

      http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/...

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:18:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Chuck Grassley and Scott Brown switch Twitters (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY, betelgeux

    In the past day, Chuck Grassley has been delivering perfectly spelled, grammatically correct tweets, while Scott Brown has been spitting out nonsensical garbage. Therefore, they must've switched twitter accounts. It's the only explanation.

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 03:20:18 PM PST

  •  So I wondered before (0+ / 0-)

    if (as it says in the District Data Book for the 83rd Congress) Ike had somehow almost lost rural, deep-red NE-04 in 1952.  

    And it seems there is a mistake.  Compared to OurCampaigns, the District Data Book has the same statewide vote for Ike (421,603) but significantly over-counts Adlai (248,057 in the book, 188,057 in OurCampaigns).  Most likely it was just someone's typo.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 03:44:37 PM PST

  •  By-election result in Singapore. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    The opposition Worker's Party defeated the incumbent People's Action Party in a by-election in Punggol East, a single member constituency which was vacated due to an adultery scandal involving the previous incumbent (who was the Speaker of Parliament).

  •  IA-Sen: This is the statement of someone that (16+ / 0-)

    is going to run.

    "Iowans now have a real opportunity to elect a true Constitutional conservative." -- Rep. Steve King on open Senate seat.
    https://twitter.com/...

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 04:33:31 PM PST

  •  Ontario Liberal Party convention (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, itskevin, DCCyclone

    It's sounding like Kathleen Wynne is going to win out in the third ballot and become the next Premier of Ontario.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 05:07:26 PM PST

    •  10 minute (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin

      warning until the results of the final ballot is released.

      The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

      by ehstronghold on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 05:13:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  They should have to have an election... (0+ / 0-)

      I don't like systems where a party can name the new Prime Minister/Premier without a citizen vote happening.  

      NDP and PC's should bring down the government.  Though NDP won't because Wynn will probably move the liberals to the left, and if the NDP helped bring down the minority Liberals, the PC would probably win the next minority.  

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 07:41:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not bothered (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY, gabjoh

        It doesn't really bother me, because people don't technically vote for the PM or Premier anyway and it just seems like a different transition of power.

        We don't vote for president, the electoral college does.  I'm just voting for a preferred candidate and who I think the state's electors should vote for.

        People in Canada, Australia, Britain, etc., don't technically vote for PM or Premier, they vote for the person running in their riding.  Only the people who are in the PM's or Premier's riding get to vote for him or her.  And even then, it's still not a real contest because the other leader contenders are likely running in different ridings.

        Granted, the most of the time, people are probably voting for the party or person in their riding based on who the leadership contenders are.

        The same could be said if the president and vice president were removed from office and the speaker of the house became president.  No vote was taken, but someone new was named president.

    •  What happened to Gerard Kennedy? (0+ / 0-)

      Thought he was at least leading in the polls.

  •  Doing some reading on IA-03 legislative seats. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, jncca, MichaelNY

    There seem to be 26 House seats in IA-03's counties.  Of these, 14 are in Polk County.  Dems have 1/12 non-Polk seats (District 26 in Indianola) and 9/14 Polk seats, so 10/26 in all.  7 of those 9 Dem seats are largely/entirely in Des Moines.  The two exceptions are District 40 (Urbandale) and District 30 (Altoona).

    I also count 13 Senate seats.  Of these, 7 are Republican and 6 are Democratic.  One of the Dem seats is Majority Leader Mike Gronstal's District 8 in Council Bluffs.  Four more are Des Moines, and the last is District 15 (Altoona/Newton), represented by the 70+ Dennis Black.  Republicans have no seats with nontrivial Des Moines population in either House.

    Of course, a Des Moines candidate wouldn't necessarily be at a significant disadvantage in a hypothetical open seat, but I was wondering if any other areas were Dem at that level.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 08:53:02 PM PST

    •  Republicans have two Polk Senate seats (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca, MichaelNY

      and one half in Polk: Districts 19 (Ankeny) and 20 (Urbandale/Johnston/Grimes) and 22 (West Des Moines/Clive/Waukee).  I think Ankeny is Brad Zaun--I don't know about the seat itself but nearly every precinct in the city went for Romney.  Urbandale looks swingy but Johnston and Grimes are Romneyland.  Des Moines itself has perhaps a single swingy precinct.  And from our own coverage of the recent special election in District 22, that's pretty red itself.  I don't know if any of these people represent swing seats (except maybe the HD-40 Democrat).  But maybe someone who actually knows something about Iowa will chime in.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 09:42:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Gronstal (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, LordMike, WisJohn, BeloitDem

      Is possible the best candidate for us given that he's from Council Bluffs, an area where we need to control the margins we lose by.

      I'd say Dennis Black would be a great candidate, but I'd prefer someone with youth and vigor.

      When Latham pulls the trigger, this instantly becomes one of the best pick-up opportunities in the country (not that it wasn't one with Latham, but even better without). If Boswell had defeated Latham, we wouldn't be talking about Latham for Senate. We'd be talking about only King for Senate. Too bad that didn't happen.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 09:43:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Latham seems to be a strong politician. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, aamail6

        I think it's a much better D pick-up opportunity without him.  What his secret is, I don't know.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 09:53:48 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  secret (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          HoosierD42, jncca, LordMike, jj32

          His secret may have been running against a 78 year old. Boswell, Judy Biggert, and Roscoe Bartlett are all over 75, all got thrown into much tougher races than they were accustomed to, and all did very poorly with Boswell actually doing the least to embarrass himself. It may just be a lot harder for older people to run retail campaigns, or voters may be reluctant to vote for them when they think they have a credible alternative.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 10:54:56 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Maybe. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, LordMike

            Bartlett and Biggert were also drawn into significantly more Democratic districts than IA-03.  And Latham has never had a close race, not even in 2002, when he was first drawn into a swing seat and when--for once--he was apparently at financial parity with his opponent.  But he won by 12, although it was a good Republican year.

            In my diary, I have MD-06 as a bigger error than IA-03,  and IL-11 as a smaller one, but both were predicted D wins (with MD-06 on the border).  IA-03 was a predicted D win, but Latham won big.  Boswell's age may have mattered, but he still hung on in 2010.  

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 11:11:10 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  There's no doubt that Latham is one of the best (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              WisJohn, MichaelNY, bumiputera

              Republican politicians in Iowa, other than Branstad and Grassley. If he's the nominee, it will be a tough race.

              But I'm betting he won't be

              •  Latham would need a clown car to win a primary... (0+ / 0-)

                ...in a statewide race. In IA-3, he's built up enough of a constituent service record that he should be immune from any primary challenge there.

                Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

                by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:53:54 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Why? (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  jncca, MichaelNY

                  He's one of the most popular Republican politicians in the state and there's nothing in his voting record that would suggest he's anything other than a down-the-line conservative. I can understand him having problems beating King in a one-on-one race, but there's no indication that a random state legislator (or whatever) would be able to take him down, beyond the "Republicans so crazy!" argument.

      •  After all (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Boswell didn't even come close.

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 09:58:48 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  For that matter (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Latham only won Polk by 2 points while Obama was winning it by 14 (although there were a few minor party Congressional candidates who did decently, Latham's vote share was still 5 points higher than Romney's).  And that wasn't even from Latham's district.

          27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

          by Xenocrypt on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 10:19:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  why? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        If he lost the house race he'd have nothing to lose by running for senate.  1) Do nothing, not be in congress, 2) run and lose, well, still not be in congress.  Now, if he does nothing, he's still in congress.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 10:07:19 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Agreed. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          I think Latham running is more "if" than "when."

          I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

          by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 10:19:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  He'd be a formidable nominee, I think. (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            James Allen, MichaelNY, WisJohn

            He's represented about half the state over the past few years, he's a big fundraiser, and he won a swing seat that was mostly new to him by 8 points over an incumbent who had represented most of it, in a year when his party was doing pretty badly.

            Of course, he might not be the nominee.

            27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

            by Xenocrypt on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 10:33:09 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  As Cyclone likes to note (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, LordMike

          It is very hard to come back from losing lower office to running for higher office. Those who do it often lost in total flukes, and they more often try for their previous office again instead of for an upgrade.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 11:30:30 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I can think of a few that have. (4+ / 0-)

            Paul Wellstone ran for State Auditor in MN in '82 and lost, and then won Senate in '90. Bill Proxmire ran for Governor of WI in like '54 and '56 and lost, and then got Senate in '57 (after Joe McCarthy died). Maggie Hassan also lost her senate seat in 2010, but now was elected Governor last November. Dianne Feinstein ran for gov in '90 and lost, but got Senate in '92.

            Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, Coya shouldn't have been sent home.

            by WisJohn on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:36:04 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think losing a House race... (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Xenocrypt, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

              ... or even losing your seat in the House can be non-fatal. Plenty of former House Reps have been able to win higher office down the road. The path seems a lot harder for losing ex-senators or especially losing ex-governors. Those are more high-profile offices, so there's probably extra sting from losing them. And while some former senators can come back to win a governorship or other state office (Lowell Weicker, Lincoln Chafee, Mike DeWine), there aren't too many losing ex-governors who can come back and win a Senate seat. A few have tried but failed - Ronnie Musgrave (MS '08), Jim Florio (NJ '02), David Beazley (SC '04).

              •  I think some of that is because (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                James Allen, MichaelNY

                if a challenger loses to an incumbent, or an incumbent loses during an unfavorable election cycle, then party leaders and activists might write it off rather than blaming it on the candidate, especially if the candidate is seen to have done better than they "should" have.  Maria Cantwell and Mike DeWine both lost during waves unfavorable to their parties, before coming back, and I doubt too many partisans blame, say, Tom Perriello or Ricky Gill for their losses.  

                27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                by Xenocrypt on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 10:26:38 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Ted Kulongoski ran and lost in a landslide (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              for governor in 1982.  20 years later he narrowly won.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 10:46:15 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Right, but incumbents who lose (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, wwmiv, James Allen

                probably have a harder time.  Plenty of successful politicians lose a big race early in their careers (the last three Presidents all lost House elections before winning statewide offices), probably out of ambition and persistence.

                27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                by Xenocrypt on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 01:23:18 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Proxmire lost in 1952, 1954 and 1956 (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Xenocrypt, WisJohn

              not just 54 and 56...

              Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

              by tommypaine on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 02:26:16 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  If King wants the nomination (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I don't think there's much Latham can do about it. King will have both the on-the-ground and institutional Tea Party solidly behind him. And keep in mind that you need a majority to avoid going to a convention, so no clown car.

  •  One counterpoint to my post (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, MichaelNY

    Bleeding Heartland, an Iowa based blog run by former SSP poster desmoinesdem, which is very good on Iowa politics (and unlike me, is on the ground in Iowa), does not think Steve King will run.

    I still think he'll pull the trigger, but desmoinedem would know better than I would.

    http://www.bleedingheartland.com/...

    •  This quote is interesting. (6+ / 0-)
      Don't underestimate Congressman Tom Latham [...] Latham is a guy with an establishment temperament but also a fairly conservative voting record (I'm a conservative complainer, and I can't remember the last time I complained about him). He may be one guy that could easily coalesce the party for a united front next fall, and he just defeated former Democrat Congressman Leonard Boswell in a new district in what was otherwise a bad year for Iowa Republicans.
      On the other hand, the actual quote from desmoinesdem about King is:
      For the record, I think Steve King is smart enough to know that he could never win any statewide race for any Iowa office.

      [...]

       I think King knows better than to run in a statewide race[.]

      Like you, I yield to DMD's expertise on Iowa.  But I don't know if I can yield, specifically, to an argument premised on "I think Steve King is smart enough".

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 10:18:34 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Dave Weigel's at the Republican thing. (6+ / 0-)

    Good stuff:

    Artur Davis: "I'm probably the least consequential person that's walked on this stage." #NRIsummit
    Also:
    Have counted five mentions of Detroit at #NRIsummit, as proof that liberalism cannot work. #sorryboston
    Which is totally not code for anything.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:50:24 AM PST

  •  WI-Gov: Tom Nelson considering run (5+ / 0-)

    Check out this comment on one of my blog posts about the 2014 WI-Gov race.

    I don't know much about Tom Nelson, who is the Democratic county executive of Republican-leaning Outgamie County, but I'm guessing he's a Northeastern Wisconsin version of Ron Kind. Nelson was Tom Barrett's 2010 running mate, but he didn't even consider a run during the recalls.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:50:50 AM PST

  •  BTW (5+ / 0-)

    Iowa, I know you're big on your 99 counties, but you don't have to make your precinct-level Presidential results into a single Excel file with 99 separate sheets.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 10:11:55 AM PST

    •  99 sheets but the overall results ain't one? (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      aamail6, gabjoh, HoosierD42, bumiputera

      n/t

      Republican, MI-11, Member of the DKE Engineering Caucus, SSP: Bort

      by Bart Ender on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 12:08:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Hey at least they have them (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, James Allen

      I recently tried to get the 2006 downballot results from them and they simplyhad  photocoppied a book into a pdf and when you try to copy and paste the numbers it spits out garbage characters.

      Nobody is as annoying as Florida though, it's like a damn scavenger hunt just to find any election results on their site.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 12:14:44 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  um (0+ / 0-)

        what about states like here where some counties never even responded to my inquiries?  I'd give anything for even a state-level, difficult to access, byzantine system.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 12:37:52 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I was referring to just county level results (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          but if we want to talk precincts then absolutely.  North Carolina is probably best when it comes to that since they publish everything by precinct in one handy spreadsheet.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 12:44:51 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  can I also mention numbering of precincts? (0+ / 0-)

            It is helpful when counties have intuitive numbering systems, like Multnomah's, where each precinct is numbered by four digits.  The first two are for the state house district, the second two are sequential, like in HD48 it is 4801, 4802, etc.  Other counties like Washington seem to have no reason for the numbers.  Others just number them 1, 2, 3, etc., which is not helpful when multiple counties do it.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 12:55:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Re: Richest Cities in the U.S. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, bfen, itskevin

    Chachy's link intrigued me, but it reflected a pet peeve: the link said "cities", but the story was about metro areas.

    But the ACS has info for "cities" or at least economic places.

    I looked for cities with at least 20,000 people and MHI in the top 500 (which meant over $124,500) in the nation.

    There were just 36:

    Darien CDP, Connecticut    $193,896.00
    Southlake city, Texas    $183,441.00
    Potomac CDP, Maryland    $172,394.00
    McLean CDP, Virginia    $170,933.00
    Colleyville city, Texas    $159,982.00
    Westport CDP, Connecticut    $155,792.00
    Saratoga city, California    $155,182.00
    Ridgewood village, New Jersey    $154,348.00
    University Park city, Texas    $151,862.00
    Los Altos city, California    $151,856.00
    Dix Hills CDP, New York    $150,501.00
    La Cañada Flintridge city, California    $148,214.00
    Wellesley CDP, Massachusetts    $145,208.00
    North Potomac CDP, Maryland    $144,418.00
    Garden City village, New York    $143,045.00
    Lexington CDP, Massachusetts    $136,610.00
    Bethesda CDP, Maryland    $136,513.00
    Mountain Brook city, Alabama    $136,447.00
    Sammamish city, Washington    $135,432.00
    Lafayette city, California    $134,871.00
    South Riding CDP, Virginia    $134,118.00
    Merrick CDP, New York    $133,881.00
    Danville town, California    $133,360.00
    Manhattan Beach city, California    $132,752.00
    Ladera Ranch CDP, California    $132,475.00
    Cottage Lake CDP, Washington    $130,573.00
    Wilmette village, Illinois    $130,260.00
    Leawood city, Kansas    $129,104.00
    Burke CDP, Virginia    $127,845.00
    Winchester CDP, Massachusetts    $127,665.00
    Westfield town, New Jersey    $127,658.00
    Brentwood city, Tennessee    $127,596.00
    Granite Bay CDP, California    $126,937.00
    Olney CDP, Maryland    $126,439.00
    Cupertino city, California    $124,825.00
    Linton Hall CDP, Virginia    $124,590.00
    I'd look up the partisan affiliations of these places, but I think it'd be more fun to open it up to discussion.  I'll start!  Darien is maybe the most Republican place in Connecticut, but my hometown of Westport is solidly Democratic.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 11:13:11 AM PST

    •  Taking a somewhat different take. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Here are the cities with a 100,000+ population with the highest MHI:

      Frisco city, Texas    $105,647    116,989
      Naperville city, Illinois    $105,585    141,853
      Thousand Oaks city, California    $100,373    126,683
      Arlington CDP, Virginia    $99,651    207,627
      Fremont city, California    $98,513    214,089
      Sunnyvale city, California    $93,292    140,081
      Irvine city, California    $92,599    212,375
      Cary town, North Carolina    $91,997    135,234
      Simi Valley city, California    $89,452    124,237
      Santa Clara city, California    $89,004    116,468
      Centennial city, Colorado    $88,474    100,377
      Carlsbad city, California    $85,743    105,328
      Bellevue city, Washington    $84,503    122,363
      Santa Clarita city, California    $83,579    176,320
      Plano city, Texas    $82,901    259,841
      Alexandria city, Virginia    $82,899    139,966
      Huntington Beach city, California    $80,901    189,992
      McKinney city, Texas    $80,855    131,117
      Murrieta city, California    $80,792    103,466
      San Jose city, California    $80,764    945,942
      Gilbert town, Arizona    $80,090    208,453
      Corona city, California    $79,877    152,374
      Rancho Cucamonga city, California    $78,782    165,269
      Orange city, California    $78,654    136,416
      Elk Grove city, California    $78,564    153,015
      Stamford city, Connecticut    $78,201    122,643
      Olathe city, Kansas    $76,528    125,872
      Temecula city, California    $76,276    100,097
      Torrance city, California    $75,885    145,438
      Enterprise CDP, Nevada    $75,688    108,481
      San Jose having nearly million people and a MHI of over $80,000 is quite something.

      In the interest of balance, the 100,000+ cities with the lowest MHI:

      Ponce zona urbana, Puerto Rico    $17,854    132,502
      San Juan zona urbana, Puerto Rico    $23,325    381,931
      Bayamón zona urbana, Puerto Rico    $25,666    185,996
      Flint city, Michigan    $26,621    102,434
      Cleveland city, Ohio    $27,470    396,815
      Detroit city, Michigan    $27,862    713,777
      Carolina zona urbana, Puerto Rico    $28,671    157,832
      Hartford city, Connecticut    $29,107    124,775
      Buffalo city, New York    $30,230    261,310
      Miami city, Florida    $30,270    399,457
      Rochester city, New York    $30,367    210,565
      Gainesville city, Florida    $30,952    124,354
      Hialeah city, Florida    $31,096    224,669
      Brownsville city, Texas    $31,371    175,023
      Syracuse city, New York    $31,689    145,170
      Birmingham city, Alabama    $31,898    212,237
      Waco city, Texas    $31,971    124,805
      Erie city, Pennsylvania    $32,445    101,786
      Knoxville city, Tennessee    $33,467    178,874
      Springfield city, Missouri    $33,771    159,498
      Athens-Clarke County unified government (balance), Georgia    $33,806    115,452
      Cincinnati city, Ohio    $34,104    296,943
      Toledo city, Ohio    $34,170    287,208
      Akron city, Ohio    $34,190    199,110
      Paterson city, New Jersey    $34,302    146,199
      St. Louis city, Missouri    $34,402    319,294
      Jackson city, Mississippi    $34,567    173,514
      South Bend city, Indiana    $34,749    101,168
      Pueblo city, Colorado    $34,750    106,595
      Springfield city, Massachusetts    $35,603    153,060
      Question: How many Democratic cities are on the first list?  How many Republican cities are on the second?

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 12:29:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  what about the richest city in each state (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      and comparing its political lean to that of the state as a whole?

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 02:13:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  can't speak for that many of these (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      but in CA...

      Los Altos and Cupertino are blue, while Saratoga is light blue (Obama both times, but Whitman in 2010).  Manhattan Beach and La Canada Flintridge are like Saratoga, as is Danville.
      Sammamish is pretty purple, I think.

      20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 07:18:48 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Weekend Music (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Minnesota Mike, bumiputera

    I'm an enormous fan of the fantastic 70s roots rock group The Band, so expect a lot of their songs in my weekend music selections in the coming weeks.

    The Band-- The Weight (ft. The Staples Singers) 1976

    The Band--It Makes No Difference (Live 1976)

    The Band--I Shall Be Released (Live 1970)

    The Band--Rag Mama Rag (Live 1976)

    Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

    by betelgeux on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 11:32:46 AM PST

    •  Have you seen the Classic Albums series on them? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      betelgeux

      It's on netflix and it covers their eponymous second album.  It's also much better than the drug fueled shitshow aka the  Last Waltz.  That whole series is great, but The Band is one of the better ones.  I'd also highly recommend The Who's "Who's Next", Pink Floyd's "Dark Side of the Moon", and Nirvana's "Nevermind" if you like 90s music.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 11:53:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have seen it, it's a fantastic documentary. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera

        I don't hate the Last Waltz as much as some hardcore Band fans do, but I definitely don't appreciate the focus on Robbie (who's a bit of a jerk and a camera hog). Despite all of its faults, the movie did give us some amazing performances (although I think Rock of Ages was a much better live album).

        Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

        by betelgeux on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 02:19:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  IA-SEN: I wonder how a potential (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, MichaelNY, betelgeux, abgin

    retirement by Grassley in 2016 figures into the calculations of potential candidates, if at all.

    An open seat might be more difficult for the GOP in a presidential election year, when the state is a tossup at worst. Or the chances could be better if Braley were to run and win next year, and remove a strong Dem from the 2016 field.

    •  No-one should assume he will retire (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, DCCyclone

      So it shouldn't enter into their calculations.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 02:05:46 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree with jj32 (0+ / 0-)

        Also there is the fact that T Vilsack is stronger than Braley in the polls.

        •  Probably purely name recognition. n/t (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          GradyDem, DCCyclone

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 05:39:13 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  maybe (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            but to improve the name recognition of Braley means to spend a lot of money more. I think it is smart to take profit from the current advantages. I think T Branstad and T Lathan would not risk all running vs T Vilsack, and I doubt about S King. That mean T Vilsack would likely have as easy way as T Harkin.

            In the most recent poll of PPP about 2014, while T Harkin was leading T Branstad by 5, T Vilsack was leading him by 3, C Culver was losing by 2 and B Braley was losing by 4. Also T Lathan was losing to T Harkin by 9 and S King was losing by 11.

            From these numbers I would tell that the US representatives of both sides would be close to a tie, while T Vilsack and T Branstad can make a difference for both parties, with advantage for T Vilsack over T Branstad.

            •  Would Vilsack leave the powerful Secretary of Ag (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              spot that he could have the next four years to become Senator?

              Not to mention there was some talk of him stepping down when Christie didn't beat King.  The idea of her running was to join him in Washington, but when she didn't there was some belief that he'd retire and join her back in Iowa.  

              "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

              by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 08:20:48 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think it would be a great reason to do it (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I think it is a need. T Vilsack is a proved winner in Iowa and the DSCC will need tons of money for keeping some R+5+ senate seats.

                The bid of C Vilsack was a long shot since the first moment. She does not bad, but there is a difference between her and her hushband in terms of popular support, and she would not be a solution if T Vilsack run not. I would not rule out her bid was for keeping the Vilsack brand name on the table in the elections in Iowa.

            •  has there been any indication he's interested? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Braley's actually discussing the possibility.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 08:26:57 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Well (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                T Vilsack has been involved until now in the talks about who would continue in the cabinet and who would not continue. I think is too early for him for talking about a senate race just after confirming he continues in the cabinet.

                I would expect some positive word in some months since now.

                Now he is not ruling out a bid. I take it as a positive sign.

            •  I don't know (0+ / 0-)

              I think the race is going to require a lot of spending, regardless. I'm not sure Vilsack would end up more popular than Braley, but I'll be happy with either of them, and I think that both have a good chance to win, but Lathan would be a hard opponent for any Democrat.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 08:51:01 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

      •  unless (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, itskevin

        he's telling King or Latham, or someone else for that matter, to not worry about facing Braley, he'll be retiring in 2 years, they can run to replace him instead.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 06:03:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Indiana by US House Vote (8+ / 0-)

     photo INbyHouseVote2012small_zps806cf89f.png

    Overall Dems won 45.8% of the two party vote and ran 1% ahead of Obama, though thanks to the Republican gerrymander we won just 22.2% of the seats. Voting Romney for pres but Dem for congress were Crawford, Madison, Scott, Starke, Sullivan, and Vermillion counties.  All of these and more were carried by Donnelly. I'm also still blown away that Republicans gifted that seat to us... Lugar would have crushed Donnelly.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 12:00:06 PM PST

  •  LA-SEN (13+ / 0-)

    Attended a fantastic fundraiser yesterday at the Ritz here in NOLA for Sen. Mary Landrieu.

    Her brother, Mayor Mitch Landrieu, introduced her, and she introduced the keynote, Vice President Biden.

    A link to the story is here.

    Really great crowd, I was surprised at the turnout. I'd say a $500k+ fundraiser, which she'll need. Usually these are held in the penthouse, but I think the size of the crowd moved it to the ballroom.

    A lot of the old New Orleans crowd was there, which was nice to see as she'll need their support. Also, it was a really good mix of various constituencies she's going to need to win (liberals, blacks, wealthy, oil & gas, Dem machine).

    Notables in attendance: Moon and Verna Landrieu (mother and father, Moon was mayor in the 70s and a hero to blacks and white liberals in NOLA), State Sen. and Democratic Party chair Karen Carter Peterson, Rep. Cedric Richmond, a few state reps (think I saw Walt Leger and Austin Badon, among others)

    I'm even more confident now that this race is Mary's to lose than I was before. She's getting air support on TV already from the oil & gas and chemicals industries praising her work (how many Dems can say that).

    Joe Biden was effusive in his praise. There are some funny quotes in the NOLA.com piece. He also confused her name with Nancy Pelosi at one point, then corrected himself.

    23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 12:23:48 PM PST

  •  What if the Great Migration had never happened? (5+ / 0-)

    My pointless exercise of the day... I was just wondering how the 2012 election would have turned out if the Great Migration had never happened.

    This pdf shows the breakdown by race of state populations in 1920. If you allocate the vote by race that the candidates got in each state according to these demographics, and also throw in what they received from other groups (e.g., hispanics), It looks like the map would turn out like this:

    http://www.270towin.com/...

    Minnesota and Wisconsin would have been very close though, and might could have gone either way. Of course, there are obvious reasons to doubt that it would have played out exactly like this - would northern whites be more Democratic (i.e., less racially polarized)? Would the Republicans ever even have pursued a southern strategy? But there it is, at any rate.

    •  Would BHO really lose Nevada? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, bumiputera

      I didn't thing the Great Migration had much effect on the Silver State, but I could just be ignorant.

      Also, what would his percentage in LA be in this situation? If 39% are black, then you've got another 6% other, leaving 55% white.

      (39*.95)+(6*.75)+(55*.20)=(37.05+4.5+11)=52.55

      I've got to imagine the situation in Alabama is similar, although Romney would've probably won by a hair considering hey have less blacks and their whites are just slightly more Republican.

      Either way, even if you give him AL, LA & NV, that only gets you to 331 EVs, one short of the actual total.

      23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 01:44:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Louisiana might've been close (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        though I was assuming a lower "other" share of the vote, and a lower Obama share among whites. Alabama was 38% black, compared to 26% now, but if you subtract 85% Romney-voting whites and add 95% Obama-voting blacks to make up the difference Romney would likely still win by 3% or so.

        Nevada is like Michigan or Pennsylvania - blacks who have migrated into the state made the difference in the outcome, though in Nevada's case a lot of the black in-migration has been more recent.

      •  Actually (6+ / 0-)

        it looks like Obama would have won both Alabama and Louisiana with 1910 demographics.

        (Though that sentence looks totally absurd written out that way. Imagine Obama running for president in those places in 1910...)

  •  Indiana CD partisan averages (4+ / 0-)

     photo INCDData2012_zpsbb555d0d.png
    Using all non-pres statewide races from 2006-2012.

    Obviously picking up any of the Republican held districts will be rather tough, but as you could have guessed our best bets are the 2nd, 8th, and 9th.  Unfortunately all three trended red relative to the state between 2006/2008 and 2010/2012 while the 7th got even bluer.  Comparing the actual performance to the average it looks like Crooks underperformed a little, Yoder overperformed a little, and Mullen overperformed a modest amount.  All three did better than Obama of course.

    For reference, here's the Donnelly/Mourdock numbers:
    1: 68.2%    31.8%
    2: 52.3%    47.7%
    3: 42.9%    57.1%
    4: 47.1%    52.9%
    5: 50.3%    49.7%
    6: 47.2%    52.8%
    7: 70.5%    29.5%
    8: 50.6%    49.4%
    9: 49.8%    50.2%

    I find it interesting that he didn't exceed his statewide numbers in the 2nd and that he did better in the 5th than the 9th, though that could be slightly off since I had to estimate split counties.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 02:04:26 PM PST

    •  Is it possible to get the libertarian percent with (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera

      the Senate numbers by CD's?

      •  No I did two party only though I suppose (3+ / 0-)

        if you wanted to do them yourself it's on the SoS website, but I wanted it to be an apples to apples comparison so I excluded 3rd parties.  The method of estimation is reasonably good, being Obama's vote portion of the split county divided by his total votes in the county times any other race's Dem county total.  Obviously that's not perfect but it's as close as I can get with just his numbers and I don't really want to get precinct level data for a million precincts.  It's possible that Donnelly lost the 5th and carried the 9th though as Obama really overperformed in the former and underperformed in the latter.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 02:49:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Damn (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      Just looking at the Donnelly numbers is depressing.  As you point out, he underperformed his statewide numbers in IN-02.  Donnelly's own district would have probably voted against him, despite the current configuration of IN-02 narrowly voting for Obama four years ago.

      IN-02, gerrymandered as it is now, still represents our best pickup opportunity in the state, but I'm not optimistic.  I think IN-08 is shifting the wrong direction, and IN-09 was already tough, but even worse after the gerrymander.  I don't think the next Dem wave year will deliver three seats in Indiana, as 2006 did.

      At least we seem to have 2-7 locked in.

      •  Correction (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I missed a line in there.  Meant to say "Donnely's own district would have probably voted against him if the senate race had been tied".  Which compares to Obama narrowly winning the current version of IN-02 in 2008, more or less matching his statewide margin that year when he narrowly won the state.  One would think Donnelly would be able to strongly outperform Obama's 2008 numbers in IN-02 this year, but he didn't by much.

  •  IA-Sen: New Braley statement: (14+ / 0-)
    "Over the past 24 hours, I've been overwhelmed by the outpouring of encouragement and support from Iowans in every corner of the state urging me to consider a campaign for the U.S. Senate in 2014. Iowans deserve a Senator who will continue Tom Harkin's legacy of strengthening the middle class and standing up for Iowans who don't have a voice. While Senator Harkin's shoes are impossible to fill, over the coming days my family and I will carefully weigh a possible candidacy for Senate."
    From Bleeding Heart Land

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 02:39:54 PM PST

  •  possible heir apparents for senate dems (0+ / 0-)

    IA: Harkin --> Braley

    CA: Boxer/Feinstein --> Harris/Loretta Sanchez

    IL: Durbin --> Bustos

    MD: Mulkulski --> Edwards

    FL: Nelson --> Castor

    NV: Reid --> Cortez-Mastos

    MA: Warren/Markey --> JKIII/Chang-Diaz

    HI: Hirono --> Gabbard

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

    by BKGyptian89 on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 03:57:30 PM PST

    •  I'd think Hilda Solis would be more likely than (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Sanchez.  She seems to have her eye on something statewide, given how she's quitting the cabinet to run for LA County Board of Supervisors.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 04:06:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Unless Merkley is defeated or has other plans (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I don't see a vacancy anytime soon here.  I don't see Wyden leaving voluntarily until 2028 or 2034.  I know he has wanted to be an "elder senator".  Whoever replaces him may be a some dude at this point.  And I could see Merkley being in until the 2030s if he's not defeated or decides to do something else with the rest of his life.  All of our current US House reps are in their late 50s at least, that's too old.  If both stay in a long time, we only have a few state legislators who are young enough to be potentials, if they stay in politics.  Very few local officials either.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 04:19:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  MD: Edwards (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Please no. I am not convinced she'd be the heir apparent.

      23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 05:19:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Her painful turnabout over redistricting (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bfen

        left a sour taste in my mouth, especially after hearing time and again that she was willing to weaken her district as part of a plan to take down Bartlett.  But when she saw that she would lose her chunk of Montgomery County, she immediately did a 180 and opposed the map because it was bad for minority representation.  Not because the 2nd and 3rd were ugly as hell, but because they did not do enough to bolster minority representation.  And to show the more cynical side of this ploy, her alternative map of the DC suburbs did about the same for minority representation as the proposed map, but gave her back a good-sized bit of MontCo.

        I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

        by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 05:27:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Honestly I'd prefer Edwards over anyone else (6+ / 0-)

          in the congressional delegation who is likely to run.  Yes, her statements over redistricting were annoying as hell, but keep in mind the map was drawn to mainly accommodate Sarbanes and to a lesser extent Ruppersberger while completely ignoring her.  I'm giving her a complete pass on redistricting since it seems rather obvious that Sarbanes, Ruppersberger, and Hoyer's demands were what sunk our chances for 8-0 and we certainly didn't hear what they said in private.

          Plus when you set the redistricting fiasco aside, Edwards is probably the most liberal of the possible nominees and it isn't like she's going to undercut Democrats if they don't lop off the three westernmost counties and give them to West Virginia.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 05:44:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Point taken. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            If Dutch was made to give up the bay side of Harford County to MD-01 and Sarbanes was made to give up Annapolis to MD-01, it would take it one huge step closer to making it a swing district.

            I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

            by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 07:38:35 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Honestly it's Sarbanes' demand for the (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades, Skaje

              Washington suburbs that screws us.  Skaje and I drew a map that satisfied everyone's demands aside from Sarbanes having the DC suburbs and you could get the 1st up to 55% Obama '08 which would be about D+3-4 last year and Harris would have been toast.  I think Sarbanes deserves the blame more than anyone when it comes to Andy Harris still being in Congress; it isn't as if Maryland Democrats were afraid to draw an ugly map.

              Oh and that map even gives Edwards part of Montgomery County too.  It literally satisfies every demand aside from Sarbanes having part of the DC suburbs.  Both he and Ruppersberger keep their homes, Ruppersberger keeps Aberdeen, Sarbanes gets Annapolis, Edwards keeps MontCo, Hoyer keeps College Park, the Eastern Shore remains unsplit, etc, etc.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

              by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 08:40:28 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I'm pretty sure (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades

                That my map satisfied every general demand and made all the districts clean and 58% Obama and above without splitting the eastern shore, but I'd have to go back and check.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 08:46:13 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Got a link to the map? (0+ / 0-)

                  Off the top of my head the demands were:
                  1st: Eastern Shore entact.
                  2nd: R's home plus Aberdeen/Hartford County.
                  3rd: Sarbanes' home, Annapolis, DC suburbs
                  4th: MontCo (optional)
                  5th: College Park

                  And by trying to do all of those you can't make the 1st Dem since it cuts off Hoyer's access to College Park or Sarbanes access to the DC suburbs. I might be forgetting a demand but that's basically it.

                  NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                  by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:02:54 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

      •  Of course, the problem is... (0+ / 0-)

        For a state with such a heavy Democratic lean, Maryland's Senate prospects are pretty thin. John Sarbanes is a possibility, but he's a backbencher coasting on his last name. John Delaney would depend on how he votes in the House, the jury's out on how liberal he's going to be. Anthony Brown is going for the governor's mansion, but if he loses the primary he might be a possibility. CVH is probably going to stay in the House and go for leadership. I'd love to see Elijah Cummings run, but I'm not sure if he would give up his seat for it.

        •  Your first sentence is completely wrong, and... (7+ / 0-)

          ...you partially proved it on your comment.

          Democrats hold all the statewide offices in Maryland, the entire state legislative leadership, and all but one U.S. House seats.  There is a long list of people who would be favored to win in November.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 07:50:13 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Agreed (0+ / 0-)

          Cummings > Edwards in a heart beat.

          23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

          by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 07:51:58 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Based on? (0+ / 0-)

            20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

            by ndrwmls10 on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 08:37:57 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I wanted to rec this at first, but I'm not so sure (0+ / 0-)

            we really don't know the politics behind the scenes and on the face of it I don't know if he's any more liberal than she is. Sure he could seem more of a team player, or he could have just realized that he was safe in the primary regardless and kept his mouth shut while she realized she might be vulnerable and thus spoke out.  We really don't know and I'd hate to be making an argument over who would be a better senator without more complete information.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 08:42:38 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Edwards > Cummings (0+ / 0-)

            For political reasons. It's doubtful that Cummings could make it through a Democratic primary against a white Dem, whereas a crucial part of Edwards's coalition in her primaries were white Dems. She'd be able to build a coalition enabling a win above and beyond just African Americans which has the potential to mire Cummings.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 08:48:45 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  RE: CA (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I can see why Harris would be an attractive candidate (to be honest, I wasn't really impressed with her work at the convention, so she kind of fell from the top of my list)

      But why Sanchez? Seems a bit odd to me.  We have a bunch of other great Congressional candidates her in California.

      Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

      by Daman09 on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 06:18:06 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think out of all the D's in Cali's delegation (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I see her probably running for the senate and she's more out spoken. Plus she's Hispanic, and I think given the huge Hispanic population, I see her as the first Hispanic Senator from Cali. I think Becerra is set on being in the house leaderdership for Democrats.

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

        by BKGyptian89 on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 06:27:00 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sanchez (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I've met her in person. She's got a nice committee assignments and loves to campaign for other house candidates, even ones who don't stand a chance at all (she cut a commercial for Farenthold's opponent while she was in our campaign office this last cycle). I don't see her moving up at all.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 07:07:11 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Loretta Sanchez (5+ / 0-)

          took a really big hit in 2010. She was incredibly rusty on the stump. In the one debate she had with Van Tran she resorted to reading off a teleprompter. But her biggest problem was when she blurted out that idiotic statement on Univision about the Vietnamese trying to take her seat.

          The really sad thing about that comment was that Sanchez had worked harder than just about anyone to ingratiate herself within the Vietnamese community in Orange County. She even (proudly) got banned from traveling to Vietnam because she angered the government by questioning their human rights violations while in the country. But with that one bone headed comment she lost so much of the good will she had worked so hard to build up.

          All the attention on the comment was also unfair because Van Tan had built much of his career by riling up anti-Mexican fervor in Orange County. And he frequently talked about how it was time the Vietnamese came together to elect one of their own.

          For the life of me, I will never understand why Tran received so much praise from Republicans here in California. He was a miserable candidate who had no record of accomplishment stemming from his time in Sacramento. He came off as totally rude.  And he was stupid enough to bring Sarah Palin to Anaheim to campaign with him.

          If Sanchez did run, the Clintons would come out in full force. I like Loretta but it would be an uphill battle.

          •  Van Tran got traction (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            sawolf, MichaelNY

            because he's the most prominent Vietnamese GOPer in California, if not the most prominent Asian GOPer in the state. The GOP, being prone to tokenism, have no one else to turn to.

            I don't get the Loretta hype though. She's not the most prominent CA Latino Democrat; that's Villaraigosa or John Perez. She's not even the most prominent Latina Dem; that's Hilda Solis. Her remark against the Vietnamese in 2010 will bite her in any run for higher office.

            22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

            by kurykh on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 08:17:49 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Well, (0+ / 0-)

          I'd et behind the Sanchez train as long as Villaraigosa doesn't jump in.  He is the ultimate sleaze bag.

          Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

          by Daman09 on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 11:52:26 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  If somehow a CA senate seat came open (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        Jackie Speier would probably run. Fantastic legislator, great personal story, and tough as nails. With the democrats being in the minority for the foreseeable future in the House, she'd jump at the chance of running for the Senate. I'm not sure how great she is at fundraising, but I think that would automatically come to whoever would be the nominee.

        John Garamendi, I think, despite his age, would give it a serious look. Ellen Tauscher (Dianne Feinstein's best friend and ally) would also give it a look. Harris and Gavin Newsom would also consider it.

  •  question of your opinion (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, BeloitDem

    if we were to pass a law creating a national independent redistricting board, or even just for a state, what are the kinds of standards you think they should use for drawing "fair" maps?

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 04:34:23 PM PST

    •  Something most like Arizona probably (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY

      especially in states like Nebraska where it's a trojan horse Dem map and a purely non-partisan one isn't a big improvement.  In terms of the actual composition of the board though, I did very much like how California's turned out and absolutely hated what happened in New Jersey and Washington.

      However, if we had some form of mixed member proportional representation nationally I think a California style one would be preferable, otherwise Democrats will still be disadvantaged thanks to our natural concentration compared to Republicans.

      The only true downside of the Arizona style commission is that we don't want to end up with 150/435 swing seats and see one party get a supermajority with just 54% of the vote, though that would really required every state to heavily prioritize competitiveness.  Plus it would result with a Congress more moderate than the actual electorate and that doesn't seem representative at all.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 05:10:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Only in the end did you really get to what I was (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, gabjoh

        asking.  I don't mean who composes the board or commission, I mean the standards those people use to draw the lines.  Should they prioritize competitiveness?  Should they prioritize having the divide of the districts resembling the state as a whole, meaning that a lean Dem state would have slightly more districts where Dems are favored and the reverse?  How should they weigh political boundaries: are cities or metro areas more important, or county lines?  How should they interpret the VRA?

        However, the composition is also important.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 05:17:18 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  what I meant about the VRA: (0+ / 0-)

          should they strictly follow the law and not go beyond that in pushing minority voting power in districts, or should they be tasked with maximizing minority voting power beyond just section 5 districts?

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 05:52:41 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  i'd do shortest splitline n/t (0+ / 0-)

        RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

        by demographicarmageddon on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:23:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Dark Money: Lookee here... (4+ / 0-)

    Just as I suspected after seeing a few web banner ads for "Use Your Mandate" group against Chuck Hagel, the NYTimes find they're most likely a Republican mini-PAC that uses a facade of being a "Democratic gay rights group."  No surprises there: http://www.nytimes.com/...

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 05:01:42 PM PST

    •  Aha! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      They called me for a survey a couple weeks ago. I declined, as I hate not knowing who's doing what with the data, especially when it's not directly related to an election.

    •  TV ads (5+ / 0-)

      There are a ton of ads playing on local newscasts statewide here totally smearing Hagel's record and asking people to call Mary to get her to vote against it.

      As if she would...

      The campaign against him has only proven that he was in fact a great nominee, and this is coming from a gay person.

      Anything that riles up the Jewish Right and the neocons like this can only be good for our country

      23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 07:56:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I got that in the mail yesterday (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, BeloitDem

      It was totally unclear from the mailing who it came from, but instead of calling my senators and telling them to vote against Hagel, I wrote them both an email explaining why I am asking them to vote for him. He needs to give reassurances that he will follow Obama Administration policy on gay rights, abortion, and contraception and not fight about it in the Cabinet, but his most important jobs are to help avoid unnecessary wars, use the military effectively when needed, and care for service members and their families when the president decides to put the US Military in harm's way. And it's precisely because the neo-Conservatives hate Hagel that he needs to be confirmed and has a chance of being a great SecDef. It's also been speculated that the president wants a Republican to argue for needed cuts of unnecessary military expenditures.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 08:56:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Paul Ryan: Hillary Clinton would have "fixed (11+ / 0-)

    this fiscal mess."

    Well, if it's Clinton vs. Ryan in 2016, I can think of a good ad for Team Hillary. :)

    •  If it's Clinton vs. Ryan in 2016 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, KingofSpades, DCCyclone

      I can think of a lot of good ads.  Mark my words that Randroid will never be elected president.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 06:15:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Has Ryan always been this big a vocal douchebag (9+ / 0-)

      and we're only hearing about it because the media feels the need to report everything he says, since he was the VP nominee (even though he was basically invisible for 3/4ths of the campaign)?

      Or did he decide to start running his mouth off about everything only after he got a taste of the national stage?

      •  Same with Rubio (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        he and Ryan have some kind of verbal diarrhea were everything that comes out of the mouth is some kind of anti-Obama comment. I guess the 2016 race has already started.

      •  I think your first sentence could be said (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, KingofSpades

        about a lot of congressional Republicans.

        I don't trust a single one of them at all considering the sole reason for their party's existence seems to be to roll back the New Deal. I don't want to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but this seems pretty obvious if you're well versed in history from 1964-present.

        However, I don't think Ryan's always been vocally this big of an asshole and I do think he's probably a closet atheist (not that that's a bad thing) given how huge an Ayn Rand fan he seems to be.  Being religious and a fan of her philosophy is a massive contradiction that would make her head explode.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 08:52:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  If he's a closet atheist (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          how do you explain his extreme abortion prohibitionism? I think it's more likely that he mixes social Darwinism with Catholic extremism than that he's an atheist.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 10:27:53 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Not necessarily (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          There are a lot of neo-randian evangelical Christians out there, especially in the deep south. It's perfect for justifying the alliance with the Republican party, and is great for wrapping racist beliefs in non-racial language. It's lack of compassion is particularly compatible with manifest (white) destiny ideologies, which appeal to religion as a justification. Rand may have been an Atheist, but that doesn't mean that everyone who draws inspiration from her needs to be.

    •  Tell me if I'm reading this right (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY, askew, sulthernao

      He is saying that his ability/willingness, as Budget Chairman, to propose and pass a sensible budget is directly dependent on the president who occupies the White House. Furthermore, said ability/willingness to do so would increase if we replaced our current left of center president, who happens to be black, with Bowles or Clinton, both of whom are also left of center and in fact worked under our current president, but happen to be white.

      Can't see any part of his statement I'm inclined to disagree with.

      "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

      by xcave on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 06:51:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I dont think it's a racial thing (10+ / 0-)

        I think the GOP view on budget stuff is just to be anti-Obama, no matter how incoherent it seems.

        As the article notes, while Ryan praises Clinton, he said, in 1998, that Bill Clinton should have resigned. And while Ryan praises Eriskine Bowles, he was on the Simpson Bowles commission and voted against the final proposal.

        I would like it if someone in the media asked Ryan why he voted for every deficit increasing bill in the Bush admin(TARP, Medicare Part D, the war spending which wasnt offset, etc), but suddenly turned into a budget hawk when Obama took office in 2009.  

        •  His answer would be (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          "Well Obama blah blah blah not living in past."

        •  Possibly not (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I just wish these idiots would listen to themselves every once in a while and think about how they come across.

          "Seriously, it's not that Democrats can't pass budgets. In fact, virtually every other mainstream national Democratic politician I  can think of off the top of my head would produce one no problem. There's just something about this President that makes him different. I just can't put my finger on it..."

          They might not mean it intentionally, but this whole attitude among Republicans to treat Obama as more radical/incompetent/dishonest than the average Democrat or liberal is really distasteful.If Ryan really believes that there is some fundamental personality flaw that makes Obama a particularly bad Democrat, he should point it out. But that's not what he's doing. He's leaving it up to his audience to decide on its own what makes Obama "different." And I find that incredibly irresponsible

          "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

          by xcave on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 11:44:46 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  He also said that (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, BeloitDem

      sequestration would not happened like it will if he and Mitt were elected.  I guess that the GOP House would have rolled over and let them waylay the sequester indefinitely, or Ryan is just a spoil sport.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 06:59:53 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think the GOP might regret their calls (4+ / 0-)

        for the Democratic Senate to pass a budget. To get the debt ceiling lifted, Ryan had to promise a balanced budget in 10 years, as opposed to 20+ or whatever for the previous budget. Assuming Ryan budget includes no new tax revenues, and no cuts to defense, that is going to involve a lot more cuts than even in the previous Ryan budget. There will probably be a lot of material for campaign ads in there.

        Meanwhile, I would think the Dem Senate budget blueprint would be a lot more balanced and include revenue. If the House GOP wants to compare the two, I dont think Dems will mind.  

        •  I don't really understand why this is (0+ / 0-)

          Constitutional. Direct from Article I, Section 7:

          All bills for raising Revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives; but the Senate may propose or concur with Amendments as on other Bills.
          So what's the argument here? The Senate originated the recent tax bill, so it isn't that the bills are revenue-neutral. Is it that the House is choosing not to enforce this provision?

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:02:05 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Are you referring to the "no budget, no pay" (0+ / 0-)

            bill? Yeah, there was some questions on its constitutionality. Maybe they changed the wording of it to make it okay.

            •  I'm referring to the "fiscal cliff" bill (0+ / 0-)

              But I always thought all budget and tax bills had to originate in the House. Maybe it's just tax bills.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 10:28:53 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  ah, gotcha. Yeah. there is an explanation (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                Apparently, Reid used a fairly common procedure where he took another revenue raising bill that the House had passed, and replaced the legislation with the fiscal cliff legislation. So the bill technically originated in the House and it is okay constitutionally.

    •  There isn't much different Hillary would have done (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      So I don't know why he's making out as if there are huge policy differences between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, there are some, but she wouldn't have given Republican much on the budget either. Before Obama, she was one of the right's biggest targets and called too liberal, so it makes no sense why Ryan is even saying this.

      26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 07:04:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Joint Pres Obama/Sec. Clinton interview (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, sulthernao

    on 60 Minutes tonight.  Gee, I wonder what that was all about.  

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 08:35:09 PM PST

  •  any of you guys find this article borderline (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    offensive? Its by Michael Barone and while he does make good points about a constantly evolving state of coalitions, he implies that certain votes should be weighted more than others (ie that they mean less.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:16:01 PM PST

    •  in stating how hard it will be for us to get the (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, BeloitDem

      house back, he failed the explanation in failing to use the term "redistricting" or any sort of reference to it at all.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:32:07 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  He did mention that, but in reference to (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        the number Congressional districts Obama won

        I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

        by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:42:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  yeah, in his talking about winning back congress (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY, Skaje

          he just talks about how we're supposed to win congress when more than half of the districts Obama lost, but really easy to gloss over the fact that he didn't just lose them this year, the key districts in the states where Obama won or was close but Dems fall far short in the house seats were gerrymandered to be unwinnable by just about any Democrat, not just an Obama-style "liberal".

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:57:42 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  He also distorts the white Catholic voter trend (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, MichaelNY, Skaje, BeloitDem

      They didn't vote for him in 2008 either, I believe, and says that the contraception coverage requirement hurt Obama among white Catholics.  I remember seeing some polls showing that ~60% of Catholics in general supported it.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:41:49 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  There's always this media obsession (7+ / 0-)

        with the Catholic vote and how supposedly conservative it is on social issues.  But because it always goes Dem, now they're restricting it to white Catholics so they can make some kind of point.  Same way there's an obsession with working class whites now, ignoring the fact that working class voters in general vote Dem by a landslide.

        Fact is, only the most hardcore conservative white Catholics are anti-contraception, and I have a hard time believing a non-trivial amount of those voters would have considered voting for Obama otherwise.  The whole insurance coverage thing was such a red herring.  Nobody gives a shit; the whole thing was fanned by Republicans and conservative media.

        White Catholics (and white Protestants) are getting more Republican because white people in general are shifting rightwards.  It's the "cross-tab fallacy"...thinking that each particular subgroup shifting is significant while forgetting the overall group shifting.

  •  WI Redistricting (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    While I don't see any scenario in which Wisconsin's "Fitzmander" is thrown out, State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos and State Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald, both Republicans, have been subpoenaed in an attempt to obtain redistricting documents on three computers that were not released in apparent violation of a court order.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 09:42:33 PM PST

  •  Supposedly (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    a bipartisan Senate deal on immigration reform is imminent.

    •  Looks alright, I think. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 27, 2013 at 11:51:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I trust the Dems on the committee (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, LordMike

        to not give us a bad bill.  All four of them come from the liberal wing of the caucus (which is quite a change coming from the past).  Bennet in particular is quickly becoming one of my favorites of the first-term senators...more progressive than early signs would indicate, and I've respected the times he has reached conclusions that have him voting against the majority of the Dem caucus.  It reveals a level of independence, but coming from the left and not the middle like many of the other contrary Dem senators.  He may see the bullshit that Republicans will try to insert into the proposals that other Dems might be blind to.

        But even the Republicans on the committee seem to have come from what's left of the reasonable-on-immigration GOP caucus.  Flake and McCain should be okay, Graham has indicated he is open to compromise, and Rubio has his national concerns to consider.  And I don't just mean presidential, but his goals for the Republican Party to become competitive with Latinos.  He at least wants the party to change.

        It will be interesting seeing how the House responds to any of this.  Boehner might be persuadable, but will his caucus?

    •  You know, if the Senate manages to work well (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      this session and get useful legislation past the House and on the President's desk, it just might not be that important that there still is a filibuster rule. All of that is a big if, but actually getting shit done would be good for the Republican as well as Democratic incumbents in 2014, I figure, whereas if the Republicans are intransigent, if today's trends continue, the voters seem likely to blame them more than the Democrats, and they may do poorly in the 2014 elections and lose more seats in the House. It's conceivable that now that they can't prevent Obama from winning a second term and he can't run for a third one (unfortunately), despite the number of extremists among Republican primary voters, a critical mass of Republican senators and representatives may understand that sabotage is not going to be a winning strategy for them anymore.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Mon Jan 28, 2013 at 01:43:45 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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