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10:26 AM PT (David Jarman): VA-Gov: Here's the bad news: the newest poll of the Virginia gubernatorial race shows Dem Terry McAuliffe hanging on by his fingernails to the lead over GOPer Ken Cuccinelli, in what -- given the Virginia legislature's sudden detour into banana-republic territory -- has become the must-win race of the off-year. McAuliffe's up 31-30 (with 33% undecided). If the 3-way race comes to pass, it's still a tight race: a 27-27 tie between T-Mac and Kook, with 9% for Bill Bolling. Here's the good news, though: the poll is from Christopher Newport University, who poll infrequently and who, when they do, seem like they'd have trouble hitting a barn door with a shotgun. Their previous most recent poll, from February of 2012, had Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 46-43 and George Allen leading Tim Kaine 42-40.

10:40 AM PT (David Jarman): ME-Sen: Public Policy Polling's first look (pdf) at the 2014 Maine Senate race finds that, no surprise, Democrats have a tough row to hoe here so long as three-term incumbent Susan Collins in the GOP nominee. Collins has one of the most balanced, across-the-boards approval profiles possible: she's at 66/24 approvals among Republicans, 64/24 among indies, and 60/25 among Democrats. Predictably, Collins has big leads, even against the state's top-tier Democrats:

• 54-36 vs. Rep. Mike Michaud

• 58-33 vs. Rep. Chellie Pingree

There's a big 'but,' however... even though Collins is well above water among Republicans, voters describing themselves as "very conservative" would like to replace her, by a 75-22 margin, and she leads a generic "more conservative" GOP challenger in a hypothetical primary only 49-46. Tom Jensen points out that Lisa Murkowski started out the 2010 cycle with an even better approval among GOPers (77/13), and think back to how that primary turned out.

So, with that possibility in mind, they also tested Republican ex-SoS, and 2012 Senate race loser, Charlie Summers against the same Dems. (There's been absolutely no mention of Summers being interested in such a race, and he's not even from the flamethrowing school of Republicanism would ignite the "very conservative" segment of the party, but if nothing else, he's probably the best the GOP bench has to offer these days.) The results suggest that the GOP's hold on the Maine Senate seat pretty much goes away at the same time that Collins does:

• 32-57 vs. Rep. Mike Michaud

• 39-50 vs. Rep. Chellie Pingree

10:52 AM PT (David Jarman): MA-Gov: The path just keeps getting clearer for Democratic state Treasurer Steve Grossman to join that illustrious club that includes John Hancock, Sam Adams, Elbridge Gerry, Calvin Coolidge, and Mitt Romney. With Lt. Gov. Tim Murray having declined last week, now Grossman's other biggest potential rival for the gubernatorial nomination, AG Martha Coakley, has also seemed to rule out a bid, saying that she's focused on re-election as Attorney General in 2014. While Coakley, of course, was the proximate cause of the Scott Brown debacle, she quickly rehabilitated her image and was easily re-elected as AG in 2010, and it seems like she'd rather stick with that instead of rolling the dice on a more difficult race.

11:02 AM PT (David Jarman): OH-Gov: Former Ohio Attorney General and Treasurer Richard Cordray has been one of the top Dem names mentioned to run for Governor in 2014, at least since ex-Gov. Ted Strickland said that he wouldn't seek a rematch with Republican Gov. John Kasich. However, Cordray has been director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and it's been announced that he'll be renominated for that role (he was put in place through a recess appointment, over GOP objections). This seems to bode against a Cordray gubernatorial run; given how much trouble it's been getting Cordray into the CFPB in the first place, he probably wouldn't be re-upping, and gearing up for a confirmation fight, now when he'd have to start gearing up for a gubernatorial run almost immediately after that.

11:14 AM PT (David Jarman): NY-11: This seems like it'd be a good get... or does it? Democratic ex-Rep. Mike McMahon, who was swept in in the 2008 wave and swept out in 2010 wave, is publicly mulling a rematch with Republican Rep. Michael Grimm. The Staten Island-based 11th is one of the few districts in the nation that went from voting for John McCain in 2008 to Barack Obama in 2012, and has since been deemed by the DCCC as one of their top pickup opportunities; maybe that shift has piqued McMahon's interest.

Still, it seems like his timing is way off: the time to do it would have been 2012, when he'd benefit from presidential-level turnout and when memories of him would be fresher. In 2014, he'll be two more years further down the memory hole, and running in the kind of off-year that got him turned out in the first place. (Plus, he waffled around for a long time on a 2012 run before declining, leaving Dems with a weak candidate in the form of Mark Murphy; throw in his 'no' vote on the Affordable Care Act, and he may have burned a few too many bridges on the Democratic side of the ledger.)

11:28 AM PT (David Jarman): IL-02: We're finally starting to get some polling data, courtesy of leaked internals, to bring some clarity to the incredibly-muddled Democratic primary field in the special election on Chicago's South Side to replace ex-Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. Interestingly, the narrow leader in both polls is the lone white candidate, ex-Rep. Debbie Halvorson, who threads the needle thanks to the re-mapped district's further excursion into the suburbs; she's able to consolidate enough of the expanded white vote to eke out a lead while the district's African-American majority gets split a half-dozen ways. So, the question is whether Halvorson can continue to hold on, or if one of the black candidates can get black voters from outside his or her district to coalesce behind him/her.

The first poll is from Normington Petts, on behalf of state Sen. Toi Hutchinson; it has Halvorson at 16, Hutchinson at 12, ex-state Rep. Robin Kelly at 8, state Sen. Napoleon Harris at 7, disgraced ex-Rep. Mel Reynolds at 7, and alderman Anthony Beale at 5. (The poll also included an informed ballot section where, after informing respondents about the candidates' occupation and race, Hutchinson moved into the lead.) The second poll, from GBA Strategies for Robin Kelly, finds Halvorson at 25, with a closer battle for second place: Hutchinson at 16 and Kelly at 15. Beale is at 10, with Harris and Reynolds in the mid-single-digits.

11:50 AM PT (David Jarman): CA-31: The 31st is no doubt one of the Democrats' best House pickup opportunities in 2014; the San Bernardino-area CD is the bluest district held by a Republican, at 57% Obama, and the main reason Gary Miller is still there is because of the chaotic Top 2 primary, which saw Miller and another Republican (state Sen. Bob Dutton) advance thanks to a 4-way split among Democrats. The Democrat who had been generally expected to advance in 2012, though, was Redlands mayor Pete Aguilar; we've heard lots of DCCC-related touting of Aguilar for a rematch, and now we're getting some confirmation from Aguilar himself that he's at least "interested" in another try.

Of course, you've gotta wonder how skilled a politician Aguilar is if he couldn't consolidate enough of the Dem vote to crest 25% in the primary, but the way the numbers broke down in that primary may be enough of a freak occurrence that he may not be the one to blame. (Another Dem possibility that comes to mind is ex-Rep. Joe Baca, who used to represent a majority of this district under the 00s map; if he wanted a way back into Congress, after his embarrassing primary loss in CA-35, this would be the path.)

12:05 PM PT (David Jarman): ME-Gov: It's early, but it's official: left-of-center independent Eliot Cutler, who finished second in the 3-way Maine gubernatorial election of 2012 that saw right-winger Paul LePage squeak through, has filed his candidacy papers with the state for another try. Cutler says recent polling helped convince him to get in; perhaps he's referring to this week's PPP poll... which had LePage narrowly winning 3-way races in pretty much a repeat of 2010's election. So what's Cutler seeing in that poll that's encouraging? Cutler still easily bested LePage in a 2-way race, so maybe, with his early show of force, he's hoping, like a mini-Angus King, to get Dems to lay down their arms and either run a Cynthia Dill-style sacrificial lamb or else openly endorse him -- given that the other alternative appears to be re-electing the odious LePage.

12:13 PM PT (David Jarman): CT-05: Here's a time-tested way to wipe out potential political threats to you... make 'em an offer they can't refuse. Namely, an offer of a nice safe judgeship. Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear is the current reigning master of that tactical approach, but it looks like Connecticut's Democratic Gov., Dan Malloy, is trying it out too. Republican state Sen. Andrew Roraback is reportedly on the short list for new superior court appointments. Roraback lost only narrowly to Elizabeth Esty in the open seat CT-05 race last year, and Roraback made his criticisms of Malloy a major issue in that race; potentially, the moderate Roraback could have even been a credible CT-Gov candidate in 2014. At any rate, looks like he'll soon be out of the GOP talent pool.

12:25 PM PT (David Jarman): CA-Gov: Getting a Republican elected statewide in California is a longshot, and seems to be getting a little more longer of a shot each year, but it looks like the GOP may be able to dredge up a decent-sounding candidate for the unenviable task of taking on Jerry Brown (or whatever Dem succeeds him, if the mercurial and 70-something Brown decides to stop after one term). Neel Kashkari has floated his name as a possibility; he's a 39-year-old investment banker from Orange County whose name may be familiar, after his brief role as interim assistant Treasury Secretary for Financial Stability in the waning moments of the Bush administration. Presumably, he has some self-funding capacity, though probably not of Meg Whitman-type magnitudes (and even that, of course, wasn't enough).

In touting himself, though, Kashkari, by comparative implication, completely derided the state Republican party:

"I'm not the typical California Republican. I'm the son of immigrants," Kashkari told the Wall Street Journal. "I come from modest upbringing. I have a successful track record. I'm an optimist. And I think something can be done if people work together."
Factor in that he'll be running in a primary against Minutemen-linked Assemblyman Tim Donnelly and that he's one of the very architects of the teabaggers' greatest bogeymen -- TARP -- and the battle lines for a GOP primary are starkly drawn. The question is whether there are enough realists left in California's GOP to let Kashkari through a primary.

12:32 PM PT (David Jarman): Virginia redistricting: Here's an encouraging sign out of Virginia: the state House, which is fully under Republican control, doesn't seem comfortable with the legislative redistricting bill that was sneaked through the state Senate (which is ostensibly a 20-20 tie between Democrats and Republicans, but they did it on a day when a Dem was absent). There's no word on whether it specifically doesn't have the votes to pass the House, but the article states that taking up the bill has been delayed, as some Republicans are concerned that it'll destroy whatever remains of the legislature's comity and thus wreck Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell's transportation and education packages.

12:48 PM PT (David Jarman): WV-Sen: The institutional tea party (i.e. the Beltway astroturfers, not the actual tri-corner-hat-wearing boots on the ground) has been casting about for a primary challenger against moderate-esque Rep. Shelley Moore Capito in the Republican Senate primary, and it's looking less clear than ever where that person will come from. The one Republican of consequence whose name has been floated as a possibility -- the state's other Republican Rep., WV-01's David McKinley -- is saying that although he's flattered, "in the end, I think I will be supporting Shelley."

The most odd thing about the McKinley boomlet is that there's no real evidence he's any more or less conservative than Capito; aggregators place both of them well to the left of the GOP caucus's midpoint. In fact, last cycle's DW/Nominate scores put Capito at #209 and McKinley at #213. McKinley spends a fair amount of the article complaining that he wants "to see the most conservative candidate" and that he and Capito "don't always vote alike," but the reality is that they do almost always vote alike. The one big time they split paths, it was on the Ryan budget -- and McKinley wasn't a "no" vote from the Paulist right but because he was concerned about Medicare cuts. McKinley does go on to say that "People called because they saw I had a pretty conservative business focus on energy," so the real upshot may be that he's even deeper in Big Coal's pocket than Capito.

12:59 PM PT (David Jarman): WV-02: With all the churn we had in 2012, it doesn't seem like there will be a lot of open seats in the House in 2014, but this is one of the juiciest ones: West Virginia's 2nd, being vacated by Republican Shelley Moore Capito for her Senate run. There's been plenty of speculation on who might run (including ex-interim Sen. Carte Goodwin on the Dem side, and newly-elected AG Patrick Morrisey on the GOP side, because heaven knows he's miserable now in his first month on the job), but we've got our first official announcement: it's Republican ex-state Del. Larry Faircloth. He's been representing Berkeley County (the Washington DC market part of the state, in the panhandle's tip) in the state House for a whopping 12 terms, and just lost the 2012 state Auditor's race, though he points out that he won all 17 of WV-02's counties in that race.

1:54 PM PT: AR-Sen: Big Dog Alert—and how! Bill Clinton never seems to get tired of busting his ass on behalf of his fellow Democrats (something other POTUSes could perhaps emulate more), and he's kicking off the 2014 cycle with a bang. Clinton is returning to his home state of Arkansas, where he'll help second-term Sen. Mark Pryor formally launch his re-election campaign, complete with fundraiser, on March 16. It sounds like it might be more of a low (or medium) dollar event, since it's taking place at the convention center in Little Rock and Pryor says "we're hoping to have a big crowd—standing room only." Regardless, should be a rockin' time with the Explainer-in-Chief back on his home turf.


2:02 PM PT: LA-Sen: Biden Alert! The President of Vice is headed down to New Orleans on Saturday, where he'll headline a fundraiser for third-term Sen. Mary Landrieu. Tickets range from $250 to $2,500. Get there early!

2:27 PM PT: AZ-Gov: Former Arizona Board of Regents Chairman Fred Duval has filed paperwork to run for governor in 2014, saying "it will take every day of two years" to be successful. (Yes, that's exactly right. There's never any time to waste.) Suzanne Adams in the Kingman Daily Miner offers a pretty good profile of Duval, 58, but here are some key biographical tidbits:

DuVal is no stranger to politics. He served under former Arizona Gov. Bruce Babbitt and in the Clinton Administration. Gov. Janet Napolitano also tapped him to serve on the Arizona Board of Regents and the Arizona Commerce and Economic Development Commission.

He is currently the vice president of Clean Energy Fuels, a company that provides natural gas for vehicles.

Duval was mentioned as a possible Senate candidate last cycle, and his name began circulating for this race almost immediately after election day, but I believe this would be his first run for office.

2:35 PM PT: NJ-Sen: Well, that about seals it. The brewing Democratic primary between Sen. Frank Lautenberg and Newark Mayor Cory Booker has already become my least favorite race of the cycle. Check out this blech:

"He's got a lot of work to do—a lot of work that should have been done and hasn't been done," Lautenberg told National Journal.

Lautenberg described Newark as a "city in desperate need of attention," adding that "maybe if the mayor can solidify the fact that he wants to improve Newark by being there, things would be different. But he's free to do as he wants to do."

Given his weak standing in public polls, I'm guessing Lautenberg realizes he needs to go negative on Booker in order to recover. And it's not as though Booker's been some model citizen, either. But this is just what we need: an ugly primary fight over a safe Democratic Senate seat, when our majority is up for grabs. Ugh.

2:43 PM PT: Minnesota: Last year, Minnesota voters rejected a proposed constitutional amendment that would have banned same-sex marriage by a 53-47 margin. Unsurprisingly, PPP's new poll now finds a small plurality in favor of gay marriage, 47-45. And Tom Jensen makes a good point: "Although that's a narrow margin, the rapid movement in public opinion in favor of gay marriage over the last few years suggests that 22 months from now it would probably pass by a broader margin." Unfortunately, the matter is unlikely to come up for a vote. As BeloitDem explained:

The fundamentals would seem to be good here: We just turned back an attempted constitutional ban, have a supportive governor, and just took over the legislature. However, a lot of the Democrats are from areas that voted for the ban and all referendums are legislatively referred, so passage will be hard. There's a good chance we can get civil unions, though.
Hopefully legislators will soon grow more courageous.

3:13 PM PT: MA-Sen: Two more Democratic establishment figures just endorsed Rep. Ed Markey for Senate on Thursday: Attorney General Martha Coakley and state Treasurer Steve Grossman joined the big pile of big names already supporting Markey. Here's a problem, though: Markey announced a month ago, but his campaign website is still nothing more than a splash page. Given how quick and easy it is to set up a full-fledged site these days with modern tools, that's not acceptable.

3:30 PM PT: CO-Gov: GOP Secretary of State Scott Gessler had been mentioned as a possible gubernatorial candidate, but in a new interview, he's quite clear about his plans for 2014: He'll seek re-election to his current post rather than take on first-term Dem Gov. John Hickenlooper. In fact, Gessler refused to even criticize Hick, who has somehow managed to retain his quirky bipartisan appeal two years into the job.

The Hotline's Scott Bland notes that one thing will be different for the incumbent going forward: Now that Democrats have retaken both houses of the legislature, Hickenlooper may have to deal with various sorts of legislation that never came before him when the GOP still controlled the state House. Hopefully he can continue to manage affairs with aplomb, as he has to date.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 06:00:13 AM PST

  •  Obligatory empty diary acknowledgment (8+ / 0-)

    This diary lists the points of substance and validity that Republicans raised in their witch-hunt against the Obama Administration during the Benghazi hearings yesterday

  •  This diary lists all of the earthquakes (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Danny Ricci, gabjoh, MichaelNY

    I had felt before today (despite having been in several). it was a tiny one, and the floor just buzzed for a second. at first I thought someone had dropped a heavy object on the ground. was an unusual experience.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 06:25:29 AM PST

  •  Investment in Texas. (12+ / 0-)

    Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, Coya shouldn't have been sent home.

    by WisJohn on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 06:49:51 AM PST

    •  Fool's gold (11+ / 0-)

      It won't happen any time soon. If we are desperately trying to turn a really red state blue, Georgia is a much better option.

      •  You do have a point there. (9+ / 0-)

        Georgia will go blue before Texas does.

        Farm boy, 20, who hit the city to go to college, WI-03 (home, voting), WI-02 (college), -6.75, -3.18, Coya shouldn't have been sent home.

        by WisJohn on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:12:59 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, but .... (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, terjeanderson, MichaelNY

          Texas has a whole lot more electoral votes for President.

          •  Yes, it does (5+ / 0-)

            Doesn't change the fact we are a long ways away from flipping Texas. White voters are not done moving away from the Democrats yet in a lot of places. You can see this in a cycle over cycle comparison. Places like Alabama and Mississippi we have hit rock bottom with white vvoters, and you can see this by the fact that Obama's total vote share increased in this states proportionately to the level of increase in minority voters. In states like West Virginia and Kentucky, we have not hit rock bottom with white voters, and you can see this by the fact that Obama absolutely nosedived in these predominantly white states. Texas whites vote ~70-30 Republican and I suspect that gap will continue to grow. Also, Texas Hispanics don't vote like Hispanics in places like Nevada or California, and Democrats still carry them, but by much narrower margins.

            Love said it before and I'll say it again, Texas is fool's gold for Democrats for the foreseeable future, and a huge sink for resources.

            •  Agree. Dems need to shore up VA, flip NC and GA (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              OGGoldy, LordMike, MichaelNY, JBraden

              and they will be solid favorites in the Presidential race for decades, or until the GOP occupies the legitimate center. Either way, a win for everybody.  

              (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

              by TrueBlueDem on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:20:15 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Those 3 (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                LordMike, TrueBlueDem, MichaelNY

                Those 3 are much better targets for Democrats to shore up a buffer nationally.

                •  And of course the crown jewel, Flori-duh (6+ / 0-)

                  Odd how I left that one out as I sit here typing in Miami.

                  Jeb Bush cemented Republicans in Florida, but Rick Scott has rapidly undone much of that good will. If we can get a Democrat, any Democrat, into the Governor's mansion long enough to veto the next round of maps in 2021, the state is ripe for a comeback.

                  (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

                  by TrueBlueDem on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:39:40 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  How exactly does one "shore up" a state? (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  Bharat, MichaelNY

                  27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                  by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:50:18 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Maximize advantages (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY, JBraden

                    Obviously none of these borderline states will become Vermont or Hawaii in our lifetimes, but with infrastructure and money they can become Nevada.

                    (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

                    by TrueBlueDem on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:59:46 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Vermont became Vermont in my lifetime (9+ / 0-)

                      Once political demographic change begins, it frequently starts moving much faster than initially expected.

                      People forget that Vermont has only leaned blue for 20 years - Dukakis couldn't carry it in 1988, Reagan carried it in 1984 and 1980. Other than LBJ defeating Goldwater, we didn't vote Democratic for President from Lincoln until 1992. In the two decades since, we've rapidly gone from being a marginally Democratic swing state to Obama's 2nd strongest state (after Hawaii).

                      Other than LBJ, California didn't vote Democratic for President from 1952 until 1992. WV voted for Carter (twice) Dukakis, and Clinton (twice), but today no one views it as  competitive on a Presidential level.

                      If you had asked a political analyst 45 years ago if Vermont would become Democratic or Louisiana would become Republican, they would have laughed at us.

                      In my view it is worthwhile investing everywhere in party building - as you note, even if they don't become Democratic strongholds, they might become more competitive.

                      And being at least somewhat competitive everywhere possible has huge advantages - forces Republicans to spend money, provides a state legislative bulwark against oppressive legislation and ugly gerrymanders, helps hold a few Congressional seats that could make a majority, etc. A national political party has an obligation - to their own voters and to the country - to do everything possible to compete everywhere possible. The 50 state strategy is a winning strategy.  

                      My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world - Jack Layton

                      by terjeanderson on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:34:48 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  In many ways 1964 foreshadowed what (4+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        ArkDem14, terjeanderson, MichaelNY, jncca

                        would happend to the Electoral map. The Republican party became more in line with the views of the south it lost its support in the North and coastal west.

                        And yes its great to invest. The biggest problem with Texas is that Democratic candidates would just come here to fundraise and then leave, doing nothing to really buildup the party. A good investment here can help us build up more seats in the legislature and thus increase our bench in the state.

                        In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

                        by lordpet8 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:12:25 AM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                      •  I'd disagree... (2+ / 0-)
                        Recommended by:
                        MichaelNY, James Allen

                        Vermont has been more Democratic than the rest of the country starting with 1980. The problem was that Reagan and Bush had relative landslides, but Carter, Mondale, and Dukakis still did better by margin in Vermont than they did in the rest of the country.

                        Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                        by NMLib on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 03:52:34 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Yes and no (7+ / 0-)

                          In 1980, Carter ran 3% behind his national total in Vermont - 38% in VT, 41% nationally. (John Anderson's 15% meant it was also a relatively weak state for Reagan, who won with only 44% in the state).

                          In 1984, Mondale won 41% both nationally and in Vermont (if you get to decimal points, his 40.8% in VT was slightly better than his 40.6% nationally).

                          Even in 1988, Dukakis performed 2% better in VT than he did nationally - 47.6% vs. 45.6%. The first hint the state might be in transition.

                          In 1992, Clinton's VT vote was 3% better than his national number. By 1996, VT was 4% above his national total.

                          Even in 2000, Gore was only 2% above his national % in Vermont (but the 7% Nader received in the state was a significant factor in keeping his number low - Bush only won 41% in the state.

                          Kerry's 58% was a full 10% above his national tally - the first real sign that Vermont had moved into the solid Democratic column. And President Obama ran fully 15% above his national percentage in Vermont in both 2008 and 2012.

                          My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world - Jack Layton

                          by terjeanderson on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 05:21:22 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Maybe Doug Tuttle could tell us what (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            JBraden, MichaelNY

                            caused the rapid shift in Vermont.

                            I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

                            by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 05:24:32 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  The far right swing of the GOP nationally (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            KingofSpades, MichaelNY

                            Especially on social issues and war/peace, there is pretty widespread revulsion here with the fundamentalist, warmongering flavour the has come to dominate the Republican Party.

                            George W Bush was probably the biggest factor in the turnaround.

                            My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world - Jack Layton

                            by terjeanderson on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 05:57:21 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  Compared to previous years though... (2+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            KingofSpades, MichaelNY

                            I'm on my smartphone and don't have access to my chart, but 1980 was the turning point, prior to then Vermont was very clearly a lot more Republican leaning. When I get a chance I'll post my chart of Vermont to show you what I mean.

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:08:53 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  And here we go: (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            The Democratic percentage that you gave really doesn't do justice to just how much Bush I ('92 and Dole underperformed previous Republicans in the state (and even Reagan's performance, compared to past Republicans was pretty weak in Vermont.

                            (By the way, this chart doesn't show it, but Obama's margin in Vermont was a full 33 points better than his national margin).

                            Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                            by NMLib on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 03:56:27 AM PST

                            [ Parent ]

          •  As we saw in 2012, the GOP is well short of 270 (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            OGGoldy, bumiputera, R30A, MichaelNY, JBraden

            already. North Carolina should be consistently Lean Dem before Texas is even a legitimate Toss-Up.

            (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

            by TrueBlueDem on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:17:46 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  The major impediment in Georgia (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            TrueBlueDem, MichaelNY

            are the Atlanta burbs (one media market, even if it is an expensive one). Texas is somewhat similar in that the DFW burbs are a major factor in the state's redness, but there's a whole lot more keeping the state red.

            ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

            by GoUBears on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:18:38 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  West Texas (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              Rural west Texas is something like R+40 collectively. That is very tough to overcome.

              •  not a lot of people out there, though. (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BeloitDem, LordMike, lordpet8, aamail6

                ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                by James Allen on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:27:44 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  3 congressional districts (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  LordMike, MichaelNY

                  That's about 2 million people +/-

                  •  All of West Texas between Dallas/Austin/SA (6+ / 0-)

                    and the Pecos River has about the same population as Tarrant County. And parts of it are actually starting to trend blue due to hispanic population growth.

                    But the state is 85% urban. The Houston and DFW metros contain half the state's population, and they are what really matter for state politics.

                  •  out of how many Texas has? (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    GoUBears, BeloitDem

                    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                    by James Allen on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:56:02 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  Look you shouldn't be writing the (7+ / 0-)

                    state off this early. Democrats have essentially hit rock bottom with white voters in the state, 43% is their floor.

                    The good news is that the state Democratic party has been an absolute clusterfuck of incompetence and wildly outdated infrastructure. One Texan user, I forget who, noted how Oritz lost in 2010, as Democrats got swept out of the legislature in Nueces county due to staggeringly low turnout. They outlined how Oritz's Nueces county machine had no GOTV effort whatsoever, no electronic databases, very little in the way of voter contact and mailers, and how the Democratic party hadn't really worked to register and engage voters in years.

                    This is the case all over Texas. Redistricting Harris county one can draw up the Republican vote sink that casts almost 260,000 votes. Then draw up the Democratic vote sink that casts 80 thousand votes. You can draw a 30% white district that voted for Mitt Romney! This isn't just because a vast percentage of minorities aren't citizens or legal residents, it's also because of a woeful state party. Democrats could get far more votes out of urban territory than they do, they just need to work for it.

                    Other than that, so many trends are working in Democrats favor in Texas. Heavily Democratic counties like Travis and El Paso are growing rapidly and getting even more Democratic as they grow. Dallas is becoming a strong blue county more and more. Harris could be strong blue with this kind of effort actually getting inner city turnout up with GOTV and voter registration. Major suburban counties like Fort Bend and Tarrant, are slowly but surely becoming more marginal. The state's minority population is exploding, and more and more this growth is represented by legal citizens; the children of illegal immigrants, inter-state relocation, etc, and they are more Democratic than their parent generation.

                    My point is, this effort needs to be started now to start yielding real results in 2016 and 2018, in cracking a few lower level statewide races, snatching back some marginal legislative districts, and maybe even contesting certain legislative districts, depending on how the next round of redistricting goes.

                    The right Democrat could win. Wendy Davis for instance, if she can prove her chops once again and get reelected to the State Senate in an off-year, might be the candidate who could benefit from this organizational aid driving up minority and inner city turnout, while she appealed to normally Republican suburban women and to getting a few (as in moving from Obama's 25% to 39%), old rural Democrats in East Texas to come back into the fold. That's the very most basic formula for winning statewide in Texas.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:32:00 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Thanks for the detailed analysis (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      BeloitDem, jncca, JBraden

                      I'll believe a Democrat can win a state-wide election for US Senator or Governor of Texas when it happens, though, and probably no sooner.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:57:13 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  One thing to remember is... (4+ / 0-)

                        ...when it happens, a state can really "pop" fast, out of the blue.

                        That's what happened with North Carolina and Virginia in 2008, there was no gradual shift at all in either but rather a sudden and sharp move our way.

                        No guarantee it happens that way, the gradual inching up is at least as likely.

                        But don't write off the possibility that Texas could surprise earlier than one might think.  I don't think so, and I think Georgia is more fruitful, but I don't write off the possibility...you just need the right candidate, in the right year, against an acutely weak opponent.

                        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                        by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:05:50 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  It's so expensive, though (0+ / 0-)

                          But I hear you.

                          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                          by MichaelNY on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:07:20 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  It really isn't as expensive (7+ / 0-)

                            As everyone is making it out to be. Only Dallas and Houston are expensive, and even then they're cheap compared to New York, Boston, Seattle, Los Angeles, San Fran, and other major media markets. Austin, San Antonio, McAllen, and El Paso are dirt cheap to advertise in.

                            And that's just talking ads, which aren't the primary focus of this effort. Registration and infrastructure building isn't that expensive AND the perpetual talk of this diverting money from other causes is really grating because, well, it's as if the people who fund these things have limited funds. They really don't. These are very rich people who can donate to many different causes.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:16:25 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                        •  This is false (3+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          James Allen, Chachy, MichaelNY

                          North Carolina PVI

                          1996: R+8
                          2000: R+7
                          2004: R+5
                          2008: R+3

                          I don't see a "pop."

                          Virginia PVI

                          1996: R+6
                          2000: R+5
                          2004: R+2
                          2008: EVEN

                          No "pop" either.

                          Both of these are trends.

                          20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                          politicohen.com
                          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                          by jncca on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 09:24:08 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Adding further (3+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            James Allen, MichaelNY, bumiputera

                            North Carolina was R+4 in 2008 (not R+3) and R+3 in 2012.

                            Virginia was technically R+1 in 2008 and was D+0 in 2012.

                            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                            by wwmiv on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 09:33:01 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  That's not a valid evaluation... (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            ...to rely on PVIs.  PVIs are misleading because Clinton had 3-ways to help him in some red states, including NC and Virginia.

                            In 2-ways, Democrats never ran so close in those states, then Obama way outperformed.

                            Look at the election-by-election results, not PVIs, and the "pop" is very clear.

                            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                            by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 05:47:33 PM PST

                            [ Parent ]

            •  However (6+ / 0-)

              Cobb & Gwinnett Counties, once solid Republican territory, will be battlegrounds - probably in just a few years, with the rapidly growing minority turnout.

              We should have taken advantage of Georgia sooner.  Look at the stats.  Georgia has 2 million more people than Virginia but it cast fewer votes in the last election, and Georgia is slightly larger than North Carolina by a few hundred thousand people yet it cast almost a million fewer votes than NC.  If someone made an effort to turn out the minority population - African Americans but especially Hispanics, who are now a large part of the population in Georgia - the results may have been a lot closer.

              •  African Americans vote at the same rate as whites (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                terjeanderson, James Allen, MichaelNY

                Its the "Others" who have gone from about 1% to 6% in North Carolina who don't vote along with White transplants.

                •  so long as they're registered (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  which in some areas is an issue that hampers turnout.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:37:32 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Georgia Actually publishes detailed Turnout stats (3+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    bumiputera, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

                    AAs vote at about Whites - 2%, mainly because African American Men have very low turnout. African American woman turned out at 80% of registration in 2008, which was the highest of any group.

                    That said, both sides have untapped reserves. AAs have exceeded their proportion of the population in both the 2008 and 2012 electorates. Democrats have to convince transplants to actually register, and motivate African American men to vote.

                    •  Transplants who don't vote... (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY

                      ...I'm guessing are predominantly young, and perhaps a lot of them don't picture themselves staying in Georgia long-term.  So no feeling of a need to participate in civic institutions.  And, indeed, I wonder if quite a few leave?  We have numbers on net growth in population among various demographics, but do we have gross data for these groups on departures and arrivals?...maybe transplant-heavy groups also are high turnover groups, with lots of people leaving making up for a lot of the many more people coming?

                      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                      by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:09:38 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

      •  Maybe... (8+ / 0-)

        ...but, still worth the investment nonetheless.  Someday, it will be competitive, and when that day comes, you want to have a foundation to build on.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:20:13 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  It's long term not short term (13+ / 0-)

        we don't expect Texas to turn blue right away. I said this a couple of weeks ago about Democrats fantasizing about Texas, either put up or shut up. Im glad they're starting to put up now.

        And yes I think Georgia is a better short term option, both states are major states, but Georgia is is smaller compared to Texas. Georgia will be competitive before Texas does.

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

        by BKGyptian89 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:55:57 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  On a presidential level, sure (9+ / 0-)

        But Democrats don't need to win Texas to win the presidency. It would however help to have a few extra congressional districts or to be able to win statewide offices when the Republicans put up weak candidates. Those things aren't doable if registration and turnout remains as low as it is now amongst the Hispanic community.

        •  Winning the governorship or even Senate (4+ / 0-)

          would be huge. I agree Texas is not going to go blue for President for a while yet, but a good statewide candidate in a good year can over-perform the state's Presidential voting. We need to get close enough that our candidates for Governor and other statewide offices have a chance. And yes, we need to win more Congressional seats and maybe even a Senate seat at some point. We have rising stars like Castro, but it's hard to go from Mayor to President, and right now there's no good place in between. We have something of a bench in Texas and we need to invest if we want them to be able to move up. Winning Texas in a presidential race may come, but this is the first step.

      •  texas vs. georgia (5+ / 0-)
        It won't happen any time soon. If we are desperately trying to turn a really red state blue, Georgia is a much better option.
        Georgia likely will turn blue sooner than Texas, and it should be a top priority for the party. But its needs are somewhat different.

        Georgia is a much lower-hanging fruit, since its potential lies mostly in its large and growing african american population, which already votes overwhelmingly democratic and with reasonable turnout rates. Targeting the hispanic cmomunity there is important too, but is also a more manageable task since there are fewer than a million hispanics in the state.

        Texas is different. Its potential lies mostly in the hispanic population of 10 million people, whose turnout is anemic even when you correct for citizenship and age distribution. Efforts there need to be sustained over the long-term, and the massive numbers of young hispanics entering the electorate need to be taken into the fold. It's a longer-term project than Georgia, but that means there's all the more reason to make the investments now.

        It won't happen any time soon.
        Probably around 2028. Does that count as "any time soon"?
        •  I seriously doubt 2028 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Democrats are in worse shape than they were a decade ago, and that was worse off than they were 10 years prior to that. I have to some kind of positive trend at all before I even consider a timeframe for such a situation.

          •  White Liberals were Demoralized (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            terjeanderson

            Thats the main difference between 2012 and 2008. No one really shifted otherwise in Texas. Turnout just fell as white liberals and moderates abstained.

          •  Texas will be majority-minority (0+ / 0-)

            before then. And parts of Dallas and Austin have growing pools of white liberals as well. I have serious problems with your pessimism and these claims above because you are not contextualizing, which is misrepresenting the actual reasons why they happened and why Democrats in the state have nowhere to go but up.

            Simply put, the state just isn't going to sit at 57% Republican like in 2012.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:35:51 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Already is (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, R30A, ArkDem14, JBraden

              Texas already is majority minority... Texas will be majority Hispanics within the next 8 years.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:22:10 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  I appreciate your optimism (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              But until I see some kind if evidence at the ballot box, I am not the kind to take things on blind faith. I am an engineer by trade, and I am good at noticing trend lines. Once one starts to appear on statewide races, I will be singing it from the highest rooftops. Its just not yet, I'm sorry.

              •  The point we're trying to make (5+ / 0-)

                Is that you aren't going to see any evidence at the ballot box without actually trying.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:38:03 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  In the case of trends, you'd see it regardless (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  For insurance Romney didn't put effort into West Virginia, Kentucky, or Arkansas, but the trend of the states was quite Apparent 04 to 08 to 12. No one put money into Texas either, so if there were a trend in our direction it wouldn't go 49% Dole, 59% Bush, 61% Bush, 55% McCain, 57% Romney. Bush greatly over performed his home state, which is to be expected so that does skew the 00 and 04 numbers a little bit. But if you adjust accordingly, 96 to 12 shows a shift of 8 points to the Republicans in terms of vote share, and 16 points in terms of margin. I am sorry, bid if you say Bush over performed in Texas by 7 points, which is more than reasonable, you get a nearly perfect linear graph with a slope of RepublicanVoteShare+0.5%/year. The R^2 value on said graph is .97, which is quite high.

                  •  The Dole number (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    Chachy, lordpet8

                    Is wildly exaggerated because you didn't do two-party only.

                    23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                    by wwmiv on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:30:37 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  And furthermore (0+ / 0-)

                      You cannot do statistical analysis on non-standardized numbers, which non-two party vote share is. You have to do two party only because you can do statistical analysis.

                      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                      by wwmiv on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:31:06 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  I will play along (0+ / 0-)

                        Even though a 2-party vote total implies that the 3rd party candidates didn't draw disproportionate number of voters from Dole or Clinton, but I digress and shall play along.

                        2 party vote: Dole 52.6, Bush 60.9, Bush 61.5, McCain 55.9, 58.0. This still yields a slightly less correlated Trend with R^2 of .96 with an average slope of .32%/year in the Republican direction. Numbers don't lose, my friend.

                        •  That's fine (1+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          ArkDem14

                          I wasn't necessarily arguing with the point, but more the method.

                          After all, you can go back through my diaries and notice that I made the exact same argument you're making now. Texas is still on a Republican trend, but we've got to do something to dent that trend back toward us. And we have to start now. And it isn't just about statewide races, but also about the downballot and what the VRA can force Republicans to do in 2020 and beyond and making current seats more competitive.

                          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                          by wwmiv on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:56:30 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  That is a very expensive proposition (1+ / 0-)
                            Recommended by:
                            MichaelNY

                            Not that it's bad idea to build our bench anywhere, but of all the states in the country to try and do that, this is by FAR the most expensive, and would likely draw lots of resources from other, more marginal states.

                  •  No, there's not always a trend (4+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    wwmiv, James Allen, MichaelNY, askew

                    There was no trend in North Carolina toward Democrats in Presidential elections.  Clinton ran close only because of Perot, but Gore and Kerry fell off as expected in two-ways.  Then Obama won out of the blue, and then lost by 2 the next time in making it the nation's second-closest state behind Florida.  All this happened partly because Obama was a uniquely appealing candidate, partly because of other political circumstances favoring Democrats generically, and partly because OFA invested heavily in winning the state.

                    That would be the practical game plan in Texas, to be ready to take advantage when opportunity arrives.  The cliche goes that "luck" is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.  This plan they're pushing is about the preparation half of that equation.  Someday there will be a breakthrough situation where the Texas GOP inexplicably nominates someone terrible, some small but critical mass of center-right whites are fed up with the state GOP, a little more demographic shift has made the electorate a tad bit more favorable to Democrats......and the Democrats offer no alternative for them to take seriously?  That would be the ultimatle disaster.  You gotta be ready to step in when you're given the chance.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:16:39 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

      •  disagree (6+ / 0-)

        With Jeremy Bird at the helm and tens of millions invested, this could be a good enough effort to make a real difference in 6 years. We pick up local seats, maybe even a statewide office or two.

        Deputy Political Director, DGA. Opinions here are my own and in no way represent the DGA's thinking.

        by Bharat on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 09:55:19 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  It would be nice (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GoUBears, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

        if that money goes to rebuilding an infastructrure and to canidate recruitment in the legislature.

        In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

        by lordpet8 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:41:03 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  It better be a long-term investment (5+ / 0-)

      ...if the National Dems are trying to turn Texas purple.

      Sort of like Wisconsin Dems trying to turn the Green Bay/Appleton/Oshkosh/Fond du Lac region of WI blue, although that will be a much easier task than trying to turn Texas as a whole purple. The Fox Valley region of Wisconsin doesn't strongly favor either party (although is ancestrally Republican), and the Wisconsin Dems haven't made much of a concerted effort to turn that region of WI blue.

      Of course, I'm still partial to the 50-state strategy, but Howard Dean isn't the DNC chair anymore.

      Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

      by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:04:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Another important thing... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, terjeanderson, lordpet8

      ...if we can force Republicans to spend more of their resources in TX that what they would like to, that leaves the GOP with fewer resources for legitimate swing states like Wisconsin, Ohio, Iowa, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and North Carolina.

      Think back to 2010, when Republicans spent heavily in California and Illinois. This is payback for that, folks.

      Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

      by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 09:28:10 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Won't the GOP always have more money (0+ / 0-)

        than the Democrats, overall, given that a majority of the huge corporations and super-rich favor low taxes, less regulation - basically, more wealth and more of a free hand?

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:02:11 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Problem in Texas (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, OGGoldy, lordpet8, sacman701

      Is that whites vote more Republican 75-25, than Hispanics vote Democratic (64-36) this means your not just looking at a white minority as a prerequisite, but probably a Hispanic plurality.

      44% Hispanic
      44% White
      10% AA
      2% Other

      Still gets you about a 50-50 split. And thats two decades away at best.

      •  These numbers are a little off, though, I think. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GoUBears

        African Americans have been 12-13% of the electorate in recent elections and their population is growing. "Others" were 2% in 2008 but will probably be closer to 7% by 2028. Hispanics were more Dem-leaning than this in 2012 and, I think, in 2008, despite what the exit polls say (based on county results). And Obama probably got less than 20% of the white vote in November, though other statewide Dem candidates have generally been in the 25% range.

        A reasonable forecast for the 2028 electorate, I think, is 48% white, 32% hispanic, 13% black, and 7% other. If 20% of whites, 73% of hispanics, 90% of blacks, and 65% of others vote Dem, the Democratic vote share would be 49.2% - which would make it a pure toss-up if third parties get 1.5% of the vote.

        •  These are off as well (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          AAs are shrinking relative to the population, despite growing absolutely. They're just shrinking less fast than whites, relatively.

          23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

          by wwmiv on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:23:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I thought AA's were growing slightly faster (0+ / 0-)

            from 2000 to 2010, they grew by 22% in Texas, as opposed to the overall growth of 20.6% statewide.

            I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

            by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:35:40 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Mathematics (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              You can still shrink relative to the population despite growing faster than the state as a whole depending on the rates of growth of other groups. See Chachy's comment below and my response.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:43:43 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  Not true, from what I can tell. (0+ / 0-)

            From 2000 to 2010, the AA population grew by 22%, while the state as a whole grew by 20.6%. See here.

            Though according to state population projections, african americans were 11.5% of the population in 2012, and they will be between 11.0 and 11.3% by 2028. So, I mean, technically that's a decline... But basically they'll still be 12-13% of the electorate.

            •  See comment above (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              And notice that the evidence here is that they're shrinking relative to the population as a whole because of the rapid growth of other minority groups and the rapid decline of Anglos.

              They're expected to be 11.0% by 2028 and were 12.09% in the 2000 census. They're shrinking relatively.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:47:41 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Huh. (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                GoUBears
                You can still shrink relative to the population despite growing faster than the state as a whole depending on the rates of growth of other groups.
                Can you explain how this works? Seems weird, though I'm sure you have a better grasp of the math than I do.

                Anyways, yeah, it's all about Hispanic and "other" growth in Texas. The same projections have Anglos around 35% of the population for 2028.

                •  I'm not a math person (0+ / 0-)

                  You'd have to ask Xenocrypt for that voodoo.

                  I just know that it works that way, not why.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:09:16 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Does it? (0+ / 0-)

                    Say group A in state B grows faster than the state as a whole.  Then:

                    (A1-A0)/A0 > (B1-B0)/B0.

                    Then:

                    A1/A0 > B1/B0.

                    Then:

                    A1/B1 > A0/B0.

                    Therefore group A's share of the population of state B has grown.

                    Admittedly I am not having a great math day.

                    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

                    by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:00:50 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                •  The math is really simple (0+ / 0-)

                  If a state's population increases by 25% and the black population increases by 15% during the same time period, the proportion of the state's population that is black will have decreased. Do you understand?

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:42:14 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

        •  I think 73% of Hispanics in Texas (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Would be a pretty high burden for any Democrat in state election, and still highly unlikely in a Federal one.

          2010 Governor's Race Exit polls had Hispanics only at 62-38 for White, which is probably a bit low, but Perry got 34-35% definitely.

          Texas quite simply cannot be realistic won in the foreseeable future with a minority only strategy, especially given that evidence is that white voters are far more cohesive than Hispanic voters in the state.

          •  not really (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, bumiputera

            I think he's right that ones who vote now are less likely to be Democratic than those who are not voting now.  The two populations are not the same.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 12:29:09 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  Unless hispanics get more liberal (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and Democrats make a few gains among white voters, predicated on improving among suburban women and younger white voters.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:37:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Voting Hispanics will likely become more liberal (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, Skaje, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

        Given that the voting Hispanic population skews more Republican because, unlike elsewhere, there are actually pockets of wealthy Mexicans in this state in El Paso, San Antonio, Corpus, and Brownsville.

        And even then, we saw a big increase in Democratic performance among Hispanics this cycle as shown by absolute increases in margin along the border in places like Laredo. 64-36 is not going to be the norm a decade from now.

        23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

        by wwmiv on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:25:38 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  In other news (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Republicans launch plan to turn New York red.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:50:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  RI and TX won PPP's poll (7+ / 0-)

    about damn time we got a real pollster.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:16:43 AM PST

  •  Rand Paul makes an ass out of himself, again. (9+ / 0-)

    Calls the Benghazi attack "the greatest tragedy since 9/11.

    I get that it's important to be respectful to the families of the victims, and I get that any deaths is too many, but sometimes, I wish someone would smack these idiots down about the fact that Hilary Clinton has run the safest American embassies and consulates of any Secretary of State since 9/11. These idiots had never heard of Benghazi before they decided that it was something that they could use to attack Obama, and many of them voted to cut State Department security budgets. This nonsense makes me sick.

    •  I think KY Dems who are actually serious... (0+ / 0-)

      ...about a U.S. Senate run may wait until 2016 to run against Paul. Paul is viewed even less favorably by the KY electorate than McConnell is.

      Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

      by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:50:06 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's incorrect (7+ / 0-)

        Just look at PPP's last poll: McConnell is deeply underwater while Paul is slightly above break even.

        What makes McConnell stronger though is his large warchest and fundraising capacity, but he is almost certainly more unpopular.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 09:10:38 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oops! (0+ / 0-)

          Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

          by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 09:21:00 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I don't take that comparison seriously (4+ / 0-)

          McConnell is a mainstream Republican who is not going to lose votes to a Democrat the way Rand Paul would, except in opposite-direction wave situations which is what happened in 2008 and 2010.

          McConnell's "problems" have to do with his leadership of a party with a disastrous national brand, but that doesn't cost him center-right votes to a Democrat in Kentucky, especially when he's a skilled campaigner who takes nothing for granted and has gobs of money.  Rand Paul is a loose canon who slipped into the Senate in a wave year on the strength of his daddy's name, and he's a freshman who is largely anonymous to most voters......I imagine that 43-39 PPP figure likely overstates his familiarity to voters.

          So I don't regard Paul's and McConnell's favorables comparable, in a real election McConnell is a lot stronger.  Paul is going to have headaches from his crazy rhetoric and crazy votes that will be brought to light in TV ads and other messaging efforts to make sure otherwise unaware voters are informed.  That doesn't mean he'll lose, but absent a wave year either in 2014 or 2018, I would bet both my balls that McConnell outperforms Paul in their next respective elections.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:28:42 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Um, I don't see what it is we're disagreeing on... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I would definitely agree that McConnell is stronger for all the reasons you mentioned, but in terms of approval rating Paul is hands down less unpopular.  The point I wanted to get across was that he's not personally unpopular, it's his positions and thus he'll always be a target, while McConnell is personally unpopular but he's clearly in line with the Republican mainstream in the state and when you add his access to resources and campaign skills, he's much harder to beat.

            I don't really think you should to draw conclusions from their vote share in the next two election cycles though, unless one actually loses, since one will be a midterm and the other will be a presidential and it seems we're entering into the twilight zone an era of widespread straight ticket voting in presidentials.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:48:42 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Not the biggest way he has been an ass today even (0+ / 0-)

      http://newsone.com/... has to take the cake.

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:03:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  So are we going to go ahead and assume (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, MichaelNY

      That Rand Paul is not planning on competing in Connecticut during either the primary or general election if he runs for president in 2016?

      "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

      by xcave on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:21:32 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  So I wrote up the 1950s Presidential results by CD (7+ / 0-)

    into a spreadsheet (thanks to demographicarmageddon telling me about the district data book, and to another source).  Have to check the anomalies, and I'll probably make a diary or two out of it, but, Stevenson's worst districts in 1952 by two-party share?

    KS    6    Wint Smith    23.62%
    NY    1    Stuyvesant Wainwright    25.53%
    NY    36    John Taber    26.55%
    NE    3    Robert Harrison    26.72%
    IL    14    Chauncey Reed    27.34%
    NY    31    Dean Taylor    27.57%
    NY    37    William Cole    28.02%
    VT    0    Winston Prouty    28.32%
    NE    1    Carl Curtis    28.41%
    NY    29    James Wharton    28.44%
    NY-31 runs along the Vermont border, by the way--I imagine it's something like Bill Owens' district now.  The data book has Ike nearly losing the rural NE-04, somehow.  Can that be right?  Anyway, all Republicans.

    Stevenson's best?

    GA    4    Albert Camp    82.64%
    NY    16    Adam Powell Jr.    82.57%
    NC    2    Lawrence Fountain    81.24%
    MI    1    Thaddeus Machrowicz    80.88%
    AL    8    Robert Jones Jr.    79.55%
    NY    23    Isidore Dollinger    77.02%
    NC    1    Herbert Bonner    76.35%
    IL    1    William Dawson    74.59%
    GA    2    John Pilcher    74.14%
    GA    6    Carl Vinson    73.96%
    All Democrats.  NY-16, MI-01, NY-23, and IL-01 are, respectively, Harlem, Detroit, the South Bronx, and central Chicago.  NC-02 was majority-black (19th-century iterations were called the "black second"), and NC-01 was something like 43% nonwhite by the standards of the time.  Of course AL-08 was actually one of the whitest districts in Alabama.

     (Representatives via Govtrack's speaker vote; districts via the Historical Atlas.)

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:13:16 AM PST

    •  What's fun is I doubt those 10 Democrats (7+ / 0-)

      could even stand being in the same room together.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:15:09 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Also, Stevenson plummeted to 66% or so (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, lordpet8, MichaelNY

      in Harlem's NY-16 by 1956.  This was perhaps Stevenson's largest decrease in the country.

      And I don't think that's a mistake, see Wiki:

      The Eisenhower administration had also supported the Brown v. Board of Education ruling in 1954; this ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court ended legal segregation in public schools. As a result, Eisenhower won the support of nearly 40% of black voters; he was the last Republican presidential candidate to receive such a level of support from black voters.

      27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

      by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:19:47 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Stevenson's second best (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Xenocrypt, MichaelNY

      was Obama's second best IINM.

      Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

      by R30A on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 09:11:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  oh and one more thing (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      does anyone know the deal with CA 19 is? It gave Stevenson around 60 percent of the votes both times but took in a lot of areas I think would have been republican then.

      From my guess, it took in Cerritos, Norwalk, Santa Fe Springs, Pico Rivera, Montebello, South El Monte, Monterey Park, East LA and Boyle Heights. East LA and Boyle Heights are probably the reason for the district's dem lean, but the rest of the district should have outweighed it.

      Looking at the 72 almanac of american politics, I found that the three districts within it were nowhere near as dem leaning
      CA 30 (Roybal) 52% McGovern
      CA 29 (Danielson) 54% Nixon
      CA 19 (Holifield) 59% Nixon

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 03:03:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Interesting. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        CA-19, and the adjacent CA-26, were Stevenson's best in the state (in that order).  Did Nixon have a home state effect?

        CA-26 was where Douglas' sucessor Sam Yorty ended up.  So maybe disgruntled Helen Douglas fans?

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 03:18:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Sorry, wasn't quite clear on it... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      What is your source for this old pres-by-CD data?

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 04:14:57 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Your comments on racial makeup... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, jncca, bumiputera

      ...are a head-scratcher in North Carolina.  That's a VRA state, they disenfranchised blacks.  How many actual black voters could there really have been in those districts?

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:31:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I was wondering that too but it stands out. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Perhaps the white voters were more Democratic, or perhaps they cared more about keeping black voters out of primaries.  

        27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

        by Xenocrypt on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 07:11:20 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  final third of Oregon legislative PVIs (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, abgin

    starting with Portland districts

    hd41 D+21 from previous D+20
    hd42 D+39 from previous D+39
    hd43 D+40 from previous D+39
    hd44 D+32 from previous D+29
    hd45 D+29 from previous D+27
    hd46 D+29 from previous D+26
    hd47 D+14 from previous D+12
    hd48 D+10 from previous D+9

    remainder of house districts:
    hd49 D+7 (R trend)
    hd50 D+4 (D trend)
    hd51 D+4 (D trend)
    hd52 D+1 (D trend)
    hd53 R+9 (D trend)
    hd54 D+4 (D trend)
    hd55 R+15 (D trend)
    hd56 R+21 (D trend)
    hd57 R+17 (R trend)
    hd58 R+16 (R trend)
    hd59 R+8 (R trend)
    hd60 R+24 (R trend)

    Portland senate districts
    sd21 D+30 from previous D+30
    sd22 D+36 from previous D+34
    sd23 D+29 from previous D+26
    sd24 D+12 from previous D+10

    remainder of senate districts
    sd25 D+6 (D trend)
    sd26 D+2 (D trend)
    sd27 R+2 (D trend)
    sd28 R+18 (D trend)
    sd29 R+17 (R trend)
    sd30 R+16 (R trend)

    The 'remainder' districts go from the eastern suburbs of Portland through the gorge and into eastern Oregon, so by looking at the two sets of numbers, you can see Democrats are far more concentrated in Portland than Republicans are in Eastern Oregon.  Also, I gave the more specific numbers for the Portland districts to show how big the movement there was.  There isn't a region in the state that moved as significantly or uniformly as the east side of Portland.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:16:59 AM PST

  •  VA Gov (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, KingofSpades, DCCyclone

    This poll is pretty much a joke, but at least it has us up!
    http://hamptonroads.com/...

  •  WBNS-TV's Jim Heath criticizes EC-rigging (5+ / 0-)

    It's very rare for a member of the mainstream media to outright give an opinion regarding a political issue.

    Link to tweet from Jim Heath

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:51:51 AM PST

  •  NJ-Gov: Zuckerberg to fundraise for Christie (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

    by IllinoyedR on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:53:52 AM PST

    •  Christie has an interesting group (4+ / 0-)

      Not so much liberal for a Republican, as unorthodox, very very young, and completed disconnected from the traditional GOP power centers in DC(ie. Thinktanks, Capital Hill, ex-College Republicans). Lots of late(2007-2008) Bush people, and quite a few Rice staff. A lot of them went and worked in Silicon Valley after Jan 2009. In fact, one of Facebook's chief DC lobbyists worked the WH Aug 2008-Jan 2009.

      •  I wouldn't be surprised if he (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        gabjoh, MichaelNY

        has better favorables among Democrats than Republicans at this point.

        He is stuck with a Dem legislature too, so he can't do too much

        In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

        by lordpet8 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:17:27 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  You (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, JBraden

        know if the GOP was truly smart, they'd push people like Chris Christie and Mitch Daniels to run for President in 2016 who don't just pander to the lowest denominator of the base which is what we saw during the GOP primaries last year.

        What was so disgusting about the GOP primaries last year (besides the fact there was a universal hatred for everything Obama and the poor and downtrodden in society) was that no one campaigned on policy except for repealing Obamacare and balancing the budget without tax increases.

        There was just semantics like Gingrich constantly attacking the media and people on food stamps and Santorum demonstrating his disdain for an intelligent and educated society.

        I mean there was a time when Conservatism wasn't equated with Medievalism after all! Yet today the GOP is acting like we need to return to the good ole days of the Dark Ages where science was considered the work of the devil and anyone who isn't a Christian should be burned at the stake ASAP.

        The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

        by ehstronghold on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:31:53 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well I think its more a problem of the electorate (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, BeloitDem, JBraden

          at large. R primary voters seems to like the bombastic, uber conservatives who throw in the red meat. Even if the national party stepped in for people like Christie I don't think it would be enough. The GOP seems deeply wedded to its conservative principle no matter what.

          As Sabato says it may take 20-25 years for them notice that the party is selling product that less and less people want to buy.

          In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

          by lordpet8 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:51:02 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  One asshole helping another (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, DCCyclone
  •  Idaho Congressional Districts partisan averages (5+ / 0-)

     photo IDCDData2012_zps0a8e639f.png

    I've calculated the downballot partisan averages for the two districts using all non-presidential statewide races from 2006 to present.  Since Ada county was split I had to estimate the breakdown by multiplying everyone's vote share in the county by the proportion of Obama's share that was in each half.  Not the best method but it's better than nothing.

    As you can see, Obama seems to have underperformed in the 2nd which is not surprising at all since it is the more mormon heavy of the two districts.  It's probably a little closer to D+2.5 than D+3 compared to the state since I had to use the aforementioned method for estimation.

    Anyway, I highly doubt we'll win either of the two districts any time soon.  However, just in case you were wondering one of our candidates did actually carry the 2nd district in that time period.  Jones beat Luna by roughly 5% in the 2006 School Superintendent race.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 09:35:08 AM PST

  •  WATN: West still making outlandish tweets (5+ / 0-)

    http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/...
    Condemns allowing women in the front line of combat.

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 09:42:52 AM PST

  •  MA-GOV: Coakley not running (9+ / 0-)

    http://legalnewsline.com/...

    She plans to run for reelection as AG instead.  Hallaluja.

    Interestingly, this means that the only major elected seriously considering a run (that we know of) is Treaurer Grossman and maybe Scott Brown.

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), new LA-01 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 09:43:00 AM PST

    •  Actually (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      she was one of our better candidates in my view. She seems to have recovered. I do not think she would make the same mistakes.

      •  Better than her having a blood feud with Grossman (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, JBraden

        ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

        by GoUBears on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:10:41 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  yes (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        she "seems" to have recovered. operative word in quotes.

        I will never understand the thing people have for Coakley here, but what's important is it's a moot point now.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:37:59 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't have strong feelings either way. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone

          But polling indicates she would be a strong candidate. She often polled second to only Gov. Brown in hypothetical Senate match ups early on.

        •  I have nothing "for" her but I'll continue to (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Skaje, drhoosierdem, JBraden, DCCyclone

          defend the notion that she could be a strong candidate.  The state senator I interned for lost her senate seat in 2010 after having won an election or two, but had been appointed to positions at first so there could've been doubt that she was strong on her own without incumbency.  She lost it in similar circumstances: she didn't expect even a tough race until the final couple months, and didn't really put her heart into it until the end.  She even significantly outraised her opponent.  Although she was in a slightly Dem-leaning district in Clackamas County, not in deep blue Massachusetts.  

          She ran for County Commission in 2012, the body she'd been a member of before being in the state senate.  It could be said that the Republicans running against her put even more effort into it that the guy who took her senate seat.  She still won a majority of the vote in the primary, while conservative candidates dominated in the other races.

          We should not judge candidates based only on how they did during that period when Democrats were all at an historical low point.

          ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

          by James Allen on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 06:25:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'll never understand this argument (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, bumiputera

            that Coakley was somehow a hapless victim of a bad national environment or ubiquitous complacency. The stories her baggage, unforced errors, and overall cracks in the armor have been rehashed again and again here ad nauseam.

            Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

            by sapelcovits on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 12:46:20 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  ... (0+ / 0-)

              and does she do those things in every campaign, or has it happened once?

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 12:33:45 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  she did it the one campaign (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                where she had a real opponent.

                if the Republicans don't contest MA-Gov or MA-Sen the way they don't contest MA-AG, then she will win for sure. but if a candidate's prospects are based on the other party forfeiting, that says it all right there.

                Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

                by sapelcovits on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 10:28:48 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Great (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Taget, gabjoh, MichaelNY

      That's great news.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:11:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA-redistricting (6+ / 0-)

    The house, it appears, is getting a bit squeamish about the whole shebang.  That's good, although it still means little unless it's officially dead, but surprising, since the house is even more whacko than the senate:

    When the matter appeared on the House calendar for the first time on Wednesday, it was quickly scuttled for the day — leading some to conclude that House Republicans were stalling.

    “We’ve held it up . . . so obviously people are concerned about it,” said Del. Robert G. Marshall (R-Prince William), recalling how one of his hot-button bills was passed by last year “while they were trying to figure out ways to kill it.”

    A Republican insider who discussed the redistricting plan with multiple legislators said Wednesday that GOP delegates are concerned that the Senate’s move will kill any prospects for cooperation on the governor’s transportation agenda.

    “My sense is the House is getting squishy,” said the Republican, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid about internal party discussions. “These guys are freaking out. . . . I think they’d like to pass the hot potato.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 09:59:58 AM PST

    •  I'd guess they want to see what McDonnell will do (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, lordpet8, MichaelNY, jncca

      They don't want to pass it and then see McDonnell veto it.  So they want assurances from McDonnell that he'll sign it.  

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:14:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Some are saying that they will wait for the Biden (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GoUBears, MichaelNY, BeloitDem, JBraden

        event in Richmond tomorrow to give them cover in the media.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:17:16 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  McDonnell doesn't want to sign OR veto it! (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY, askew

        This is the thing I've pointed out before, the Senate Rs jammed McDonnell on this, they didn't consult with him in advance and just sprung it to try to force his hand on something they didn't think he'd like.

        The House Rs are right to worry that McDonnell's agenda will be crushed.  McDonnell doesn't want to sign this, for that reason plus it potentially is a stain on his national stature as he gears up for a Presidential run.

        Problem for McDonnell is that he rips his own party apart, and risks backlash from the right both in Richmond and from the wingnut rank-and-file, if he vetoes.

        So he's screwed either way.

        All of which leads me to believe he's likely privately working the back channels to get the Assembly to ignore the bill and just not act on it.  If they ignore it, then he's out of the jam.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:40:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  House is more moderate than the Senate (5+ / 0-)

      Most of them are newer, were swept into office in 2009 and 2011, and a lot represent R+1 to D+1 seats in Northern Virginia.

      The Democratic Senate map basically left all but one GOP senator in very Republican seats.

      •  That's not true at all (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, LordMike

        The House has a Republican supermajority, it's 67-31!  Plus an independent who caucuses with the Rs (and one vacancy).

        There are not that many "moderates" in the bunch on the R side.

        And there aren't all that many in NoVA...some, but not that many, and most of them are in heavily gerrymandered districts that are extremely difficult or impossible to flip.

        My own district, HD-34, is one of the rare few that is truly vulnerable for them.  Tom Rust is in a tough seat that he nevertheless holds comfortably, and LeMunyon is in a competitive district, and there are maybe two or at most three others outside Fairfax County but that's it.

        What's happening in the House is simply that they're actually thinking it through, and have the benefit of knowing the backlash and ramifications of this re-map which the Senate Rs didn't take time to consider.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:47:53 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  2014 House Analysis (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, sawolf, SaoMagnifico

    I was looking at the partisan averages of all the new districts and the results of the 2012 House elections and I've come up with a list of the most vulnerable Republican seats.  I've split them into a list of seats that can be won with Progressive candidates and then seats that can likely only be won with Blue Dogs:

    Progressive Seats

    CA-31 (Miller)        57-41 Obama
    CO-06 (Coffman)    52-46 Obama
    NY-11 (Grimm)        52-47 Obama
    IA-03 (Latham)        51-47 Obama
    IL-13 (Davis)        50-49 Romney
    NY-23 (Reed)        50-48 Romney

    Blue Dog Seats

    FL-02 (Southerland)    52-47 Romney
    MI-01 (Benishek)    54-45 Romney
    PA-12 (Rothfus)    ????? Romney
    KY-06 (Barr)        56-42 Romney

    All of these Republicans look vulnerable and I think Democrats have at least a 50-50 shot beating them.  Gary Miller should be the easiest to take out, but still don't take the 57% Obama number for granted, because  that's not much in California.  We need to recruit a good candidate.  Coffman, Latham, and Davis can be beat with good candidates.  Tom Reed is in a swingy district but his election was very close in 2012 and he may be vulnerable.  Remember Kathy Hochul overperformed dramatically in Western NY but her district gave Romney a dozen-point win so she couldn't overcome that.  Southerland will be vulnerable because the Democrat at the top of the ticket in Florida in 2014 will likely win his district by a large margin.  Governor Rick Scott is deeply unpopular in Florida and Southerland's portion of North Florida always supports local and statewide Democrats by larger margins than the President.  Benishek had one of the closest races in 2012 so we should try to get his seat again.  Barr might not seem that vulnerable but remember there are so many Democrats in local office in Kentucky, someone should be able to take him on.  Jason Altmire is looking at a run in PA-12 and I think he's got a good shot of winning because he's more conservative than Mark Critz was and could pick up more swing voters.

    Now for the bad news.  Even if we won all TEN of these seats and held every seat we currently have - some of which, like Patrick Murphy in Florida, won't be easy - we would still need seven more seats to get a majority.  And that looks like it will be next to impossible.  If it is remotely possible, all of the seven will have to be BLUE DOGS because there are barely any Obama seats left to take under the nationwide Republican gerrymander, and the few that are left have strong Republican incumbents like David Valadao (CA) and Chris Gibson (NY).  Nevertheless, I've come up with three more seats that could be taken in a good year with STRONG candidates.

    NE-02 (Terry)        53-47 Romney
    SC-07 (Rice)        55-44 Romney
    AR-02 (Griffin)        55-43 Romney

    And as for the four additional seats on the road to a majority, I am at a loss.  It would be nice if Dan Boren & Mike Ross and ugh, even Heath Shuler hadn't retired because we likely won't be able to win their seats back.  If, by some miracle, we did get to a majority it would be extremely fragile.

    So this just underscores the need for fair redistricting plans which sawolf has a good diary about.  But that is more of a long term plan and a bit of a long shot, so we'd better start realistically looking at which Republicans can be defeated under the current map.

    •  I think you should add WV-02 to the list too (8+ / 0-)

      Though we might do horribly there this year, the seat is just 2% more Republican than the state at large and our bench dwarfs what Republicans have.  If Capito gets teabagged then I think we'd have a great shot.

      Maybe OH-14 too since local Dems typically do better than Obama there and Joyce was basically unchallenged last year.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:36:51 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Definitely OH-14 (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GoUBears, MichaelNY, JBraden

        WV-02 with a very good candidate, like Carte Goodwin.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:16:24 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  OH-14? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Democrats have not done so well in that district the last couple of rounds.  Maybe that was because Latourette was kind of a moderate but still, I don't know.  It's 51-47 Romney.  If we had a strong candidate, maybe?

          I was thinking about West Virginia 2 as well.  Like Kentucky, WV has many Democrats serving statewide and in elected office.  If West Virginia Democrats were feeling really ambitious, they could make a play for the 1st district as well; David McKinley only had a one-point win there in 2010 but he may be becoming entrenched by now.

          •  OH-14 (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, James Allen

            LaTourette only did well because he had bipartisan popularity and only the most nominal of opposition (usually bizarre perennial candidate Dale Blanchard, whose refusal to step aside last year resulted in the election of David Joyce).

            But in purely PVI terms, it's a swing district, and it wasn't shored up in redistricting because LaTourette wasn't known to have any interest in retiring at that time.  A strong homegrown Dem could definitely make this one a race.

    •  KS-03 (7+ / 0-)

      Yoder is too wacky for that district.  It's right-leaning, but not skinny-dipping in the Sea of Galilee crazy.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:03:59 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  comments (7+ / 0-)

      Except for CA31, all the seats you called progressive are actually purple districts where Dems would be best off running centrist or center-left candidates in the mold of Kurt Schrader, Ed Perlmutter, Tim Walz, Kathy Hochul, etc. A mainstream liberal would have to be an unusually good politician to win one in a midterm year and then hold it. The presidential vote in NY11 is misleading because its reddest areas were most disrupted by the hurricane.

      We don't know yet whether Valadao is a strong incumbent, as he had only token opposition in 2012. I think he'll escape in 2014 just because Dem turnout usually craters there in midterms, but the district is trending blue at warp speed and he'll likely be an underdog to any serious Dem in 2016.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:56:54 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Some disagreements (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GoUBears, bumiputera, MichaelNY, jncca, bfen

      I think Valadao (and Denham) in California, and Gibson in New York are actually better targets than Rice or Griffin.  I'd rank them much higher.  Despite their supposed strengths as candidates, the districts are much friendlier to us, and that has been a critical aspect in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012.  Blue seats that were expected to go red stayed blue, and red seats thought to be going blue stayed red.  The correlation between district PVI and representative has only gotten stronger and stronger, with blue-district Republicans disappearing (and failing to get elected when favored), and red-district Dems experiencing the same phenomenon as well.  You also left out NV-03 (Heck) who should also be at the top of our target list with a better candidate.

      I'd also rank Joyce (OH-14) above seats like PA-12 and KY-06.  If we couldn't hold the latter two seats last election, I'm not optimistic about getting them back.  But OH-14 has not seen a serious Dem challenge, and it's a swingier district.

      I also wouldn't be surprised to see us get closer to beating McKeon (CA-25) and Rigell (VA-02) than to beating Griffin.  Arkansas is moving the wrong way, the former two districts are moving the right way.

      •  California Republicans (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, KingofSpades, JBraden

        You made some good points on Valadao & Denham.  I didn't realize Valadao's district went 55-44 Obama.  However, he won by a huge margin and that is pretty striking - it was an open seat and I don't think his opponent had any major issues.  Although I actually mistook his opponent, John Hernandez, for the astronaut Jose Hernandez (Denham's opponent) who was considered a top recruit.  So with those things considered, I might say Valadao is beatable.  It is very hard for Democrats to win in the Central Valley in mid-terms though, as Hispanic turnout falls off a cliff.

        For the same reason - Hispanic turnout going way down in midterms - I don't think we have a great shot at Heck, either.  He had a pretty strong opponent this year and he still won by eight.  Obama only carried the district by less than a point.

        On McKeon, and Rigell for that matter, I disagree.  McKeon's district actually went for Romney this year, and he was in an Obama district under the old map, as were Darrell Issa, Dana Rohrabacher, and David Dreier, and none of them ever came close to losing.  Raul Ruiz's breaks the trend - but that is a heavily Latino district and I don't really think we have a shot in hell at McKeon's seat.  

        Scott Rigell has built up a moderate, populist profile here in Hampton Roads.  He's on tv all the time "helping" the community.  His voting record is pretty conservative, although to his credit he has done some good things like donate a larger share of his income than is required to the Federal Treasury.  I don't think we have much of a shot at his seat.

        Joyce (R-OH) - again, I'm partially basing this on past House election data and Democrats have not come close to winning in that part of Ohio in a long time.  The reason I think we lost PA-12 and KY-06 this time is because of straight ticket voting for Romney, who did very well in both of those districts.  I think if the "doom end of the world most important election of our lifetime Obama's a marxist" rhetoric calms down, there will be less party line voters and Democrats will be considered in these ancestrally Democratic districts.  Andy Barr, by the way, is VERY conservative, a Rand Paul-type libertarian.  And in general KY-06 is economically moderate.  So there's a good case to be made against him.

        I also think Democrats' fortunes will be rising in Arkansas, at least on the Congressional level, now that Obama is not on the ballot again.  If Hillary is on the ballot in a few years, that may actually prop up Democrats.  Despite the big Romney win in AR-02 I think the district is really pretty moderate.  I believe it did (or almost did) vote for John Kerry in 2004.  The reason I didn't include Rick Crawford (R-AR) as a potential target is because he, like Scott Rigell (R-VA) has a "nice guy" image and is actually very moderate by Southern Republican standards.  I believe he was the only Republican to call for tax hikes on the rich during the debt ceiling debate in 2011.

        •  CA-36, Ruiz's district, (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, KingofSpades, JBraden

          is 70% white.

          And Rigell did awfully last November, despite having an opponent whom national Democrats triaged mid-way into the race.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:56:48 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  I don't agree with your "progressive" seats (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, JBraden

      In my opinion, NY-11 cannot be won by a loudly progressive candidate. Only someone perceived as a moderate Democrat is likely to have a chance. The only one on your list that probably could be won by an out-and-out progressive is CA-31. Please explain why you think I'm wrong.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:16:16 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I guess I just have a more lenient idea of (0+ / 0-)

        progressive.  You are right, we're not going to get a Barney Frank elected in those seats.  I meant Democrats who get elected and tow the party line instead of opposing some or most Democratic legislation like the Blue Dogs do.

        •  You mean they could be in the pro-business caucus (0+ / 0-)

          (the name is slipping my mind), rather than actual Blue Dogs. I don't identify that as progressive, you're right.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:52:03 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  NY-11 needs a more blue collar type (0+ / 0-)

            A progressive could win it, if they were a talented, well-liked local politician in the mold of say, Anthony Weiner or Chuck Schumer who've both generally gone very well in this district.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:57:51 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I disagree (0+ / 0-)

              Staten Island won't vote for someone that liberal.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:17:06 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Ermmmm (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                JBraden, MichaelNY

                Schumer won 58% of the vote in Staten Island in 2010. And 69% of the vote there in 2004.

                Eliot Spitzer won 63% there in 2006. Andrew Cuomo got 57% in 2010. Gillibrand got 51% in 2010. 64% in 2012.

                It's a swingish place. There are a lot of elastic voters willing to vote for Democrats. Particularly a Democrat that connects with them culturally, even if that Democrat is a bit to their left.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 06:35:29 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  KY-06 (0+ / 0-)

      I'm a huge believer that we should win back this district. McConnell will almost certainly lose this district and we'll be helped w Obama not on the ballot.

      23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 12:03:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Jason Altmire (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      He's now (D-FL) after cashing out and taking a hube lobbying gig for BCBS. I really don't think he'll be running for PA-12.

      Home: North Shore of Illinois, College: Main Line of Pennsylvania (PA-07)

      by IllinoyedR on Sat Jan 26, 2013 at 04:48:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Mark Takano was a former Republican (7+ / 0-)

    He apparently made the switch in 1983, feeling that the Republican party no longer represented him. Takano had come from a Republican family and originally had plans to become a Republican lawyer.

    http://www.thecrimson.com/...

    In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

    by lordpet8 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:38:10 AM PST

  •  Special election candidates in CA (4+ / 0-)

    SD32 http://www.sos.ca.gov/...

    Paul Vincent Avila (D-Ontario) - Council Member
    Kenny Coble (R-Pomona) - Planning Commissioner/Businessman
    Joanne Gilbert (D-Rialto) - Retired Teacher
    Paul S. Leon (R-Ontario) - Mayor of Ontario
    Norma Torres (D-Pomona) - State Assemblywoman
    Larry Walker (D-Chino) - SB County Auditor-Controller

    SD40 http://www.sos.ca.gov/...

    Rafael Estrada (D-Chula Vista)
    Hector Raul Gastelum (R-Chula Vista) - Businessman
    Xanthi Gionis (R-Chula Vista) - Professor/Businesswoman/Author
    Ben Hueso (D-Encinitas mailing address) - State Assemblyman
    Anna Nevenic (D-Cathedral City) - Nurse/Author (frequent candidate)

    If any candidate wins a majority on March 12th, they win. If no candidate wins a majority, the top two advance to May 14th.

    I'd imagine there'll be a May election in 32, but that Hueso looks pretty solid to win in March.

    Gionis finished 4th in the CA51 primary last year despite a party endorsement.

    Nevenic was last seen running in CA41 (finishing 3rd in the primary). She's also run in Oregon and Nevada in the last 20 years.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:42:52 AM PST

  •  What the fuck is wrong with Maine Democrats (20+ / 0-)

    and liberals... Collins is not a moderate.  She has voted for absolutely none of the president's big ticket items other than the stimulus.

    Seriously, very liberal voters approve of her 45-40!? I know the sample size is small but seriously wtf.  Among Democrats as a whole she's at 60/25... I don't understand how not just weak partisans but most Democrats don't seem to get that voting for Collins is a vote to block Obama's agenda.  Ugh...

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:43:29 AM PST

    •  Same goes for Chuck Grassley (8+ / 0-)

      who is the only other blue state Republican senator who is nonetheless ridiculously popular.  He's even worse than Collins in that he literally votes for nothing Democrats put forward.  I seriously do not get why the electorate there absolutely loves him and Tom Harkin.  Do they not get that voting for both will cancel each other out?

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:58:46 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's not all that fair (7+ / 0-)

      She voted for the DADT repeal, Matthew Shepard Act, Dodd-Frank, the Kagan and Sotomayor nominations, SCHIP expansion, VAWA, and Lilly Ledbetter.

      Snowe voted for all of those things too. She's about as liberal as a senate Republican will get nowadays.

      •  And... (6+ / 0-)

        the fact that those weren't unanimous votes is incredibly sad. The sidenote that a few GOPers don't belong in mental rehab is no reason for them to be popular with Dems.

        ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

        by GoUBears on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:14:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  While that is true (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GoUBears, JBraden, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

        you have to consider that behind the scenes she actively works to thwart the Democratic agenda and seems to only vote for things like Dodd-Frank to win reelection.

        The fact that a D+5/6 state has someone whose best votes are just the ones you mentioned and not things like Health Care reform should be totally unacceptable to left of center voters.

        Plus, every single thing you mentioned (excluding the nominations for obvious reasons) are hardly flamingly left wing positions; they're things that are ridiculously popular among the public and she only votes for them because of that reason.  Collins is a conservative who does her best to win reelection, nothing more.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:27:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Collins (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dc1000, MichaelNY, JBraden

        She also voted for all the bills in the 2010 lame duck session along with Snowe, Scott Brown, and Murkowski.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:43:16 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not the DREAM Act (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, MichaelNY

          Lugar, Murkowski, and Bennett are the only Republicans who voted for that. If you only looked at Presidential election results, you would find it strange that the Republican Senators from Alaska and Utah voted yes. But it's worth remembering that Utah and Alaska are very Republican states but not necessarily that conservative.

          •  Utah is definitely conservative (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Bennett only voted yes because he had nothing to lose at that point (he had already been dumped in favor of Mike Lee) and while he's certainly right-wing, he also had a bit of a conscience.

            Alaska is more libertarian than fundie, though it does have a Bible Belt of sorts (anchored by--you guessed it!--Wasilla).  Dems can be competitive there if they get their act together.

          •  Utah and Alaska are necessarily that conservative (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            They're as conservative as any states out there.

            That elected officials in those states perhaps have quirks on an isolated few individual issues doesn't make them or their states any less conservative.

            Utah has been quirky on immigration, Republicans there passed their own weird liberal immigration law that's completely legally unsupportable at least regarding any implication of legal status (since immigration is exclusively a federal issue).

            Alaska can be quirky on random individual things.

            But these are still rock solid right-wing states.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:57:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  Elasticity (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "Elastic states are those which have a lot of swing voters — that is, voters who could plausibly vote for either party’s candidate. A swing voter is very likely to be an independent voter, since registered Republicans and registered Democrats vote with their party at least 90 percent of the time in most presidential elections. The swing voter is also likely to be devoid of other characteristics that are very strong predictors of voting behavior. For instance, he is unlikely to be African-American, which very strongly predicts Democratic voting. And she is unlikely to be a Southern evangelical, which very strongly predicts Republican voting, at least recently."

      http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...

      Maine has the third-highest elasticity in the nation, behind Rhode Island (which had a Republican Senator until 2007) and New Hampshire (which still has one).

    •  Well they as observant aren't as we are (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, JBraden

      The thing is the rightward shift in the GOP is making the older conservatives look more centrist as more and more uber conservatives enter the chamber.

      I believe David highlighted this when he looked at Jo Ann Emerson's voting record. She started off with a pretty conservative ranking but jumped up as the new tea party members entered the house. Emerson did not get more liberal it's just that many of the new conservative Republicans freshman displaced her ranking.

      In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

      by lordpet8 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:34:40 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  As a college student, it's particularly (6+ / 0-)

      frustrating, as upwards of 85% of students I've talked to about her would vote for a Dem, but in a very Dem neighborhood I was assigned to in a recent awareness 'campaign', at least half of the residents gloated about their love for Collins.

      Sigh.

      ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

      by GoUBears on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:36:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Still these will not be numbers for comfort (0+ / 0-)

      Now, after this poll, the DSCC can think that ME-Sen is easier than WV-Sen. Michaud is 18 points back Collins like Rahall was yesterday 18 points back Capito. And this in a lot bluer environment.

      I think the tea partiers will primary Collins.

      I think the Democratic SuperPACs need begin to work this seat early.

      •  ME-Sen easier than WV-Sen? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, JBraden, skibum59

        I'm sorry, but that's ridiculous. You're basing that on a poll of WV by a pollster with no track record? If Collins represents the Republicans again, the Democratic candidate - whoever s/he is - has a very, very low chance of winning.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:18:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  I think the Democrats from Maine need (0+ / 0-)

        need an early campaign with adds promoting both US House Representatives at same time, without a concrete office for everyone. Positive adds about both statewide, and negative ads vs Collins, LePage and maybe Cutler.

        This PPP poll seems to lead to a scenario with Michaud as potential senate challenger and Pingree as potential gubernatorial candidate. It is necessary to think about it. I would be open to that option.

        ME-02:
        In the case of ME-02, the congressional seat of Michaud, this would be the bench of both parties under the new lines:

        Democratic side:
        Potential candidates:
        - J Baldacci former Governor
        - P Colwell former Speaker ME House
        - M Dunlap ME Secretary of State
        - N Douglass ME State Treasurer
        - J Mills ME Attorney General
        Other that lost their last race:
        - J Tierney former candidate for Governor
        - J H Bright former candidate for the US Senate
        - J Martin former Speaker ME House
        - C Pray former ME Senate President

        Republican side:
        Potential candidates:
        - J McKernan former Governor
        - R Nutting former Speaker ME House
        Other that lost their last race:
        - O Snowe former US Senator
        - C Woodcock former candidate for Governor
        - R Bennett former ME Senate President
        - K Raye former ME Senate President
        - W Schneider former ME Attorney General

        Under these level, more statewide officers appointed by the state legislature, state senators,...

  •  PA-GOV: Primarying Corbett? (7+ / 0-)

    MontCo Commissioner Bruce Castor edges closer:

    “I’m considering it more and more,” he said. “When I first started thinking about this after the fall election and made some tentative announcements early in December, I was more like sticking my toe in the water. Now, I’d say it’s more like up to the ankles as some things have developed.”...

    Castor said he sees himself as a credible alternative to the incumbent should the Governor’s popularity ratings continue to drop.

    He made the case that Corbett is a general election liability for Republicans despite deferring on some conservative acumen.

    “The Governor has expended his political capital, but not on the things that we cared about, at least the things he campaigned on like pension reform, property tax reform, taking on public sector unions, the right to work, [and] paycheck protection,” Castor said.

  •  Or GOP Senate will confirm Cordrey to keep him out (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, JBraden, MichaelNY, BeloitDem

    of OH Gov race.  Or they could have another Warren situation where they block him for being too good at the CFPB role, and he goes back to OH with a raised profile and a very strong resume.  

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:19:46 AM PST

  •  NY-11 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Taget

    I think Grimm may have benefited from Sandy just as Obama did.  He was very out front in Staten Island after the storm.

    •  Yes I think he might have lost were it not (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Taget

      for the storm, however I haven't seen precinct results yet and don't know if the southeast shore of Staten Island, which is the most conservative part, had considerably decreased turnout or not.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:29:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Sandy helped Grimm. (5+ / 0-)

        I'll get the exact information from county once I stop being lazy (which might be never).

        The areas where Democratic performance dropped from 2010 were the areas most affected by the Hurricane.  And we know from the paper ballots that were submitted by displaced residence that the displaced were more Democratic than the island as a whole.

        Murphy's campaign was completely negative.  Which hurt him a little since he spent little time saying who he was and would he stood for.  Which helps explain why he under performed Obama.  But it was effective and helped narrow the gap between him and Grimm quickly.

        And the Hurricane freezing the campaign put an end to that.  All tv ads were pulled not just because it would've looked crass during a natural disaster.  But most Staten Island residents could not even see them.  I was not in an area that affected by the Hurricane and I was without tv/internet/phone for over a week.  Thus Murphy ended the campaign with a surplus.

        He also was going to get some great help from OFA and Rep Jerry Nadler who were going to bus people into the district to help in the home stretch.  Then there was a gas shortage across the entire region just after Sandy for two weeks.   Never mind that most people who wanted to go to Staten Island to help would rather help the victims than jump on a political campaign that seemed at that moment irrelevant against the great swath of destruction.

        And then of course disasters do tend to make all incumbents look better.  As it helps humanize them.

        Without Sandy Grimm would've lost.

        The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

        by Taget on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:55:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  He's a total camera hog (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Taget

      I happened on his youtube page and he's been on the Greta Van Sustren program like 10 times already. Plus he's made a number of appearances on CNN and even MSNBC. He's highly visible.

      Off topic, but he's kind of good looking. :)

  •  Help converting image/random text to excel (0+ / 0-)

    I'm trying to copy the numbers for sec of state and sec of agriculture for 2006 from the Iowa SoS page here (pdf) but when I go to past into excel it just spits out a bunch of random characters.

    Anyone got any suggestions for how to convert maybe an image from a screenshot or something to a spreadsheet or another way to copy those numbers so I don't have to enter them manually?

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:55:16 AM PST

  •  Baca didn't lose his primary (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden, MichaelNY, jncca

    Contrary to the line above that he had an "embarrassing primary loss in CA-35", that isn't what happened.

    Under the new California system, Baca actually won the all-party primary with 47% of the vote, with fellow Democrat Gloria Negrete McLeod coming in second with 34%.

    But in November (thanks in large part to Mayor Bloomberg's money and the gun issue), she turned that around and defeated Baca by a 56% to 44% margin.

    I don't know if Baca would be a good candidate for the Miller seat or not, but an "embarrassing primary loss" isn't part of his baggage.

    My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world - Jack Layton

    by terjeanderson on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:08:07 PM PST

  •  Dill for governor! (12+ / 0-)

    Seriously, it's annoying that Cutler is just Leeroy Jenkinsing his way into the field despite having the worst head-to-heads of any tested potential Gov. LePage opponent, and it was annoying that now-Sen. King jumped in out of nowhere before Democrats sorted out which of them would run for then-Sen. Snowe's seat, but I think it's less important Maine's junior senator and governor call themselves Democrats than it is that they're not Republicans.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:13:04 PM PST

  •  LA-SEN (11+ / 0-)

    The Veep will be down in NOLA Saturday for a fundraiser for Sen. Landrieu that I'll be attending.

    LINK HERE

    23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

    by Stephen Schmitz on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:20:07 PM PST

  •  The folks at Larry Sabato aren't too fond (15+ / 0-)

    of the GOP electoral schemes

    As we suspected, it would permit a GOP nominee to capture the White House even while losing the popular vote by many millions. This is not a relatively small Electoral College “misfire” on the order of 1888 or 2000. Instead, it is a corrupt and cynical maneuver to frustrate popular will and put a heavy thumb — the whole hand, in fact — on the scale for future Republican candidates. We do not play presidential politics with a golf handicap awarded to the weaker side.

    Republicans face a choice that can best be characterized by personalizing it. A healthy, optimistic party is Reaganesque, convinced that it can win the future by embracing it, and by making a positive case for its philosophy and candidates to all Americans. A party in decline is Nixonian and fears the future; it sees enemies everywhere, feels overwhelmed by electoral trends, and thinks it can win only by cheating, by subverting the system and stacking the deck in its favor. Whose presidency was more successful, Reagan’s or Nixon’s? Which man made the Republican brand more appealing?
    Well seeing as they tried to do their first test run in Sabato's backyard (VA) I'm not too surprised.
    http://www.centerforpolitics.org/...

    State House Republicans do have a reason to be squeamish.

    Under current circumstances, the congressional district system could well result in a Republican victory even if the Democratic candidate were to win the popular vote by a substantial margin. Such a situation would undoubtedly lead to widespread questioning of the legitimacy of the election and, potentially, a public backlash against the victorious Republican candidate and the GOP itself. Before engaging in a cynical attempt to rig the electoral system, Republican leaders and strategists should consider the potential harm that their actions could do to our democratic form of government and to their own party

    In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

    by lordpet8 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:26:06 PM PST

  •  Iowa by US House vote (two party only) (8+ / 0-)

     photo IAbyHouseVote2012small_zps27221b0c.png

    Overall Dems won 51.5% of the two party vote.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:26:49 PM PST

  •  VA-Gov poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    terjeanderson, JBraden, MichaelNY

    Not sure if this has been reported, but dear old Roanoke strikes again:

    http://roanoke.edu/...

    In here, Cuccinelli leads McAuliffe by 7, out of step with other recent (but very early) polling, but here more are undecided than supportive of either.  

    37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:31:30 PM PST

  •  NY-11: McMahon is ALWAYS mulling a run. (7+ / 0-)

    He "mulled" running against Vito Fossella a number of times.  And except for the highly unusual circumstances in 2008 where the seat was a gimme for Democrats he doesn't actually run.  He just freezes the field and prevents anyone else from getting traction or money.  If there is one thing McMahon loves it is being the "indispensable" man.  If he helps the Democrat lose than all the better.  It helps further cement the idea that he is the only one who can win.  The reality is that he is making monster money in his law practice and his wife is a New York judge.

    The smartest thing Mark Murphy did was to realize it was a fools errand to wait for McMahon to make his final decision.  Though he did bend over backwards for McMahon until every one of McMahon's self imposed deadlines passed.

    McMahon (or Cussick who is also a tease) "mulling" is not necessarily good news.  Imagine if in 2012 those two hadn't "mulled" for so long and just announced in or out early?  Mark Murphy would've had the time to raise his name ID and get that extra money that might have gotten him the 2.8 extra points he needed to win.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:37:29 PM PST

  •  Uh Faircloth most certainly did not win all 17 (4+ / 0-)

    He won just Berkley, Hampshire, Jefferson, and Morgan, winning a total of 47.39% of the two party vote.  Where did you get that stat?

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:17:10 PM PST

  •  CA: Gov... there is no "GOP primary" (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, MichaelNY, DCCyclone

    Top two.  There are no starkly drawn lines with Assemblyman Tim Donnelly.  It's more a matter of how many clown car Republicans get in to divide the Republican vote, and if there is any legit-ish second Dem candidate.

    If Brown doesn't run (about a 1% chance of that if he is healthy), if only two prominent Dems run, they should both advance if the opposition is two Republicans.

    Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

    by tommypaine on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:17:25 PM PST

    •  Gavin Newsom (0+ / 0-)

      seems itching for confrontation the way he kept subtly trying to defeat proposition 31 last year.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:52:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  You mean Prop 30? (0+ / 0-)

        The tax levy prop.

        I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

        by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:58:54 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah. Sorry. I'm just bad with numbers sometimes. (0+ / 0-)

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 06:40:15 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Zero chance Newsom runs against Brown (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        No chance of any mainstream Dem running against Brown at this point, but in small chance Brown doesn't run, Newsom seems a lock to start a campaign.

        Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

        by tommypaine on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:10:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  And hopefully he would go down in flames (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, MichaelNY, ArkDem14

          that guy is almost the definition of smarmy.  I really hope we can get someone like Kamala Harris to succeed Brown rather than him.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:17:05 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Harris seems like a great (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, kleinburger

            pick to run for Senate in 2016 if Boxer retires (which she probably will). If Loretta Sanchez doesn't run.

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 06:41:09 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I'd much rather have Harris in there than Sanchez (0+ / 0-)

              who isn't as liberal as California can elect (though neither is someone like DiFi).  Though one can always dream of "President Kamala Harris." and that would likely require being governor.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

              by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:09:34 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Loretta has gotten more liberal (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                over the years. I think she's essentially a social liberal, environmentalist, with mainstream positions on economic issues that would appeal to a lot of the wealthy denizens of southern and north California that vote Democratic. Plus Sanchez is a veteran legislator, and would bring SoCal back into a more prominent position with the Democratic party, dominated as it is on a statewide level right now by Northern California politicians, particularly Bay area ones. She'd be my first choice. A Hispanic woman elected to the U.S. senate would be a good step into making it more representative of America, and California.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:28:54 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  ...Isn't Loretta Sanchez (0+ / 0-)

                  part of the Blue Dog Coalition?  Do we really need another of them in the senate?

                  •  That doesn't mean anything (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    and she joined way back when her district was really marginal in the 1990s.

                    Look at her voting record. Particularly as it has developed over the past 6-8 years. There have been no important issues where she's dissented from the progressive viewpoint, in terms of voting record.

                    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                    by ArkDem14 on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 01:19:24 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

    •  CA gov (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I'll be very surprised if it ends up Brown and another Dem. Dems and Dem leaners make up about 55% of the primary vote (Obama beat Romney 56-44 in the 2012 primary), but we don't know how many of these are indies who couldn't vote in the 2010 primary.

      Brown got 84% in 2010 when the seat was open. No Dem who would run against him in 2014 would get any outside funding, which would put even a bigger-name challenger in the same boat as the whodats who ran against him in 2010. I think Brown's floor in the primary is 90% of Dems who voted in the 2010 primary and 80% of Dem-leaning indies who didn't vote in the primary. I think any Dem insurgent would have a ceiling of about 8% in the top 2 primary, and probably less than that. I can't imagine the GOP field being so fractured that no one will get even 8% of the total vote.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:23:25 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  We're pretty familiar (6+ / 0-)

      With the top two. :) There's just no convenient shorthand for describing this (fucked up) system when you want to talk about a party's nominee.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 03:50:59 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  More proof Ashley Judd is not a serious candidate (5+ / 0-)

    http://thehill.com/...

    At one point, three top donors in the state — Jerry Lundergan, a big donor in Kentucky and father of Lundergan Grimes; Nathan Smith, a former Kentucky Democratic Party vice chairman and a top fundraiser for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio); and another Kentucky donor — were standing outside the Hay-Adams hotel in Washington, when they spied Judd walking in and said hello.

    “We’re all three from Kentucky,” Lundergan told Judd.

    “Oh, great!” Judd responded, and walked into the hotel without another word.

    Smith said it was possible she had no idea that the men were key political players in the state, but he added that, if he were planning a bid, he’d have stopped to say hi to every Kentuckian he met.

    Smith said he has not been contacted by Judd about her bid.

    She would be an absolute disaster as our nominee and I think there's a strong chance she would cause us to lose the state house of reps.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:27:29 PM PST

    •  So one of these guys better get recuriting (5+ / 0-)

      than because it seems to be that everybody else is too chicken to take on McConnell.  She's only talked about because there is nobody else even toying with stepping up.

      I guess nobody could run against McConnell.  

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:51:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ben Chandler (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, Taget, SaoMagnifico, bumiputera

        has nothing to lose at this point. I'd even be willing to go for Mongiardo or Greg Stumbo.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:54:12 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Stumbo is Speaker and he won't wanna give that up (4+ / 0-)

          But Mongiardo could do well.  He's particularly strong in the eastern region.

          I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

          by KingofSpades on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:58:22 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Chandler would be bad too given that he (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Taget, jncca

          voted for Cap and Trade.  Not nearly the disaster that Judd would be, but we could do much better.  For the life of me I don't understand why he and Rick Boucher voted for it...

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:05:55 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  They didn't understand or anticipate (8+ / 0-)

            how a previously bipartisan, Republican plan for dealing with carbon emissions would get made out into a satanic communist initiative in the space of just a few years?

            Or maybe they actually had some principles and weren't just some of the many blue dogs bashing the entire national agenda, never bothering to stick up for it, and thinking that they by hurting their party's brand to improve their own they were making themselves more secure in their district?

            "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

            by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 06:38:44 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  hey (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              JBraden

              DeFazio voted against it from the left.  They could've found reasons.  Cap & Trade is not an unquestionably good idea.

              ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

              by James Allen on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 06:45:26 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think it's a pretty damn good one (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, MichaelNY, bumiputera

                without getting into policy, it's an idea that actually stimulates private market reaction and even economic growth around the carbon emissions trading and the like.

                DeFazio is pretty prickly these days. He's only a few steps away from being as bad as Russ Feingold.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:31:12 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  we were just discussing market schemes like (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, bumiputera

                  this in one of my classes.  As often, I really wanted to say something but didn't: a distinct disadvantage to them is that they rely on participants being convinced or incentivized to make rational choices, and then upon them making them.  Direct regulatory schemes don't rely on that, it is about setting and enforcing the law.  Not to mention at least early on implementation in Europe was a joke.  And to be honest it may have done the trick 20 or even 10 years ago, but we're past the point where a weak half-measure like it can save us.  I think DeFazio is just not a neoliberal and doesn't like market schemes like cap & trade, though.

                  ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

                  by James Allen on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:44:56 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  I don't buy that (4+ / 0-)

              They should have known that it would have been demonized into toxicity in coal-dependent areas.  Also why the hell did we even hold a vote on it when it was DOA in the senate... Maybe decades from now their private strategy will be made public, but without insider information it looks incredibly shortsighted on their part.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

              by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:11:23 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I'm not about to attack for (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, bumiputera

                sticking up for their principles, especially when I agree with them.

                As for holding a vote, you should blame Harry Reid; he's the one who convinced Nancy Pelosi that he would push it through the Senate. That's why she whipped her caucus so hard.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:32:10 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Fortunately still no evidence of that (0+ / 0-)

      And I'm not sure what your point is about a celebrity avoiding people who yell at her.

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:04:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  My point is that she doesn't seem to be (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, SaoMagnifico

        taking the steps required to run a serious campaign and that if she does run it will be a sloppily executed effort.  Her ignoring them, while somewhat foolish as that quote points out, is more telling because they're major donors and the type of people she will need to cozy up to if she wants to run a campaign.

        Unless she's of course willing to piss away millions of her own money, but somehow I doubt that.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:12:33 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The story is just weird (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          wwmiv, askew

          How many times a week do you think men yell at her, and say things like they are from Kentucky or "Go Tennessee" or whatever?

          Celebrities are told to walk away from voices, not toward them, if at all possible.  There isn't any evidence she'll run a sloppy campaign.  She may one a brilliant campaign, or a pitiful one, but that story is totally clueless for suggesting she did something "wrong" when she no doubt has done the same thing literally hundreds of times in the past twenty years.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 03:10:24 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  eh (0+ / 0-)

      Do senate candidates ever have coattails at the state house level? I suspect that at most their turnout operations would have an indirect effect.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:07:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  No, she's not going to have downballot effects (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I can't think of a single instance when a Senate race caused downballot effects.

      Governor's races can do that, and of course Presidentials much more so.  Or if there is a national wave election, that does it, but that's not a "downballot" effect.

      I'm very skeptical Judd affects anyone else.  If she seems bad, the entire state party will openly distance from her and Democratic candidates will just throw her under the bus.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:05:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  That's pretty bad (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It just shows she's an outsider, in reality and symbolically, which reinforces the carpetbagger label and feeds an attack narrative against her.  I can see Music Man jokes, with her ridiculed as Harold Hill.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:11:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Jesus (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Terrible profile, apathetic, unconnected, no political instincts in evidence...and yet we still have smart people here who somehow think she would be a decent candidate.

      Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

      by SaoMagnifico on Fri Jan 25, 2013 at 01:14:59 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Baca didn't lose a primary, he lost the general (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, JBraden

    to another Democrat.... It was only 2 months ago, come on guys!

  •  WATN (11+ / 0-)

    Richard Lugar is going be a professor at Indiana University

    He will also co-chair the new IU International Advisory Committee with former U.S. Rep. Lee Hamilton
     http://fox59.com/...

    In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

    by lordpet8 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:34:38 PM PST

  •  Cutler seems now more a danger than a solution (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf, JBraden

    He is going forward but not by the right way.

  •  Pryor's event (13+ / 0-)

    will also see the return of his dad, David Pryor to the fundraising/campaign scene. He's going to be appearing a lot over the next few years.

  •  WI-SD-8 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    Alberta Darling, a Republican Wisconsin State Senator from the northern Milwaukee suburbs, received nearly half of a million dollars from interest groups supporting mining deregulation in Wisconsin despite being COMPLETELY UNOPPOSED in the 2012 Wisconsin state legislative elections.

    Although Darling is listed as being unopposed in the 2012 WI-SD-8 race, Beth Lueck had a Facebook page for a write-in campaign against Darling, however, any write-in votes that were cast in the 2012 WI-SD-8 race were not counted, presumably because Lueck did not file with the GAB as a write-in candidate.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:49:21 PM PST

  •  RI House approves gay marriage! (13+ / 0-)

    but...the douchebag Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee says he probably won't take it up until sometime in the spring because there are "obviously" more important things. Translation: Dear gays, STFU and stop wanting equal rights, it's annoying us regular people.

    oh well. still a step forward. apparently the House Minority Leader (R of course) voted in favor.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 02:57:35 PM PST

  •  MA-SEN: Kerry's hearing went smoothly as (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MBishop1, MichaelNY, JBraden, askew, bumiputera

    expected. The committee will vote on his nomination next week, and he could take over for Clinton in early Feb.

    Seems like both Brown and Stephen Lynch have been kind of quiet recently about a run, although there could be stuff happening behind the scenes. Brown really has the luxury of waiting a while before announcing a run.

    •  I think Brown wants time to pass... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, LordMike

      So he can be seen out of Washington and can then put his barn coat back on and run like he did in the last special - all about identity politics.  

      Markey has a day job, Brown doesn't.  So when he decides to run he can go on listening tours, crisscross the state for the 2-3 months leading up to the election.  

      Any word on who Gov. Patrick will name to replace Kerry? Frank has been quiet as well lately.  I wonder if he got the message that he was greatly hurting his chances.

      I think it will be Kirk or Frank.  Frank knows all the issues at hand, and Kirk knows the Senate enough to hit the ground running.  Nobody else would make much sense.

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 03:58:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Kirk said he isn't interested. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, jj32, JBraden, bumiputera
      •  It will be interesting to see if Brown can (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, JBraden

        win on his personal ratings alone.

        In 2010, he had a couple of issues going for him. The Jan 2010 unemployment rate in MA was at its highest point in 18 years.

        Obama was struggling with the healthcare bill, which Brown explicit ran against. I'm guessing most in MA were at least indifferent to a national healthcare law, since they had essentially the same law in their state for years.

        This year, the dynamics seem to be different. I imagine Brown will largely agree with Obama on gun control measures and immigration reform. He has already changed his mind, and says he supports a federal assault weapons ban. Perhaps Brown will criticize any budget deal, if one comes together in the next few months.

        It will be up to Markey and the Dems to highlight Brown's more conservative votes, like voting against Elena Kagan for SCOTUS.

        I liked Kirk as the interim appointee, but as drhoosierdem points out, he has apparently said he doesnt want it. Next best pick might be one of Kerry's top aides.

        •  I think Elizabeth Warren's campaign (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, jj32

          pretty much provides the blueprint for beating Brown.  Other than control of the Senate no longer being in doubt, her other criticisms of "Senator McDreamy" (God, I love Charlie Pierce!) still stand.

          I also think that a relatively unknown Kerryite will get the interim gig.  Frank was a long shot to begin with, and his public angling for the seat only damaged his chances even further.

    •  Full Senate votes Tuesday (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jj32, MichaelNY, askew

      Just saw Harry Reid on CSPAN say the full Senate will vote Tuesday on the Kerry nomination.  

      it's all in the game yo

      by Minnesota Mike on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 06:26:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  CA-35: Baca will run against Negrete McLeod. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera

    20, Dude, Chairman DKE Gay Caucus! (College IN-09) (Raised IL-03, IL-09) Tammy Baldwin and Elizabeth Warren for Senate!

    by ndrwmls10 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 03:52:09 PM PST

  •  DNC (9+ / 0-)

    Tulsi Gabbard has been elected for a four year term as a Vice Chair.

  •  MO-8ction (4+ / 0-)

    Businessman/big money donor Barry Aycock opts out of running with the Ds. The new frontrunner is State Rep Linda Black of Bonne Terre.

    So here's her bio http://www.house.mo.gov/...

    Rep. Linda Black, a Democrat, represents part of St. Francois County (District 117) in the Missouri House of Representatives.

    In addition to her legislative duties, Rep. Black is a former public school teacher in the North St. Francois County School District in Bonne Terre and West County School District in Leadwood. In 2003, she was appointed as an Accelerated Schools Coach and to the Steering Committee for the Intermediate School. Rep. Black is the former city Treasurer of Bonne Terre and the former Chief Deputy Treasurer of St. Francois County.

    Rep. Black is a member of the National Rifle Association, Missouri Farm Bureau and the St. Francois Democrat Club. She also is on the Board of Directors for the University of Missouri Extension Council and an ex-officio member of the Backstoppers Organization. Rep. Black has been a member of East Bonne Terre First Baptist Church for the past 28 years and has served in the capacity of church treasurer, youth director and Sunday school teacher for both adults and the youth.

    Rep. Black received an Associates of Arts from Mineral Area College in 1991 and a Bachelor’s Degree in Elementary Education from Central Methodist University in 1998. She went on to receive a Master’s Degree in Education from Southwest Baptist University.

    Born in Bonne Terre in 1970, Rep. Black resides in Bonne Terre with her husband, Dr. Jon Hagler. She has two children; Eric and Loren.

    Linda Black has had an interesting political career. When she first ran for office in 2008, her name was Linda Fischer (she went to Linda Black in 2011 after her divorce), the incumbent Dem bowed out of the race early in the campaign (he hit a pedestrian with his truck, drove away from the scene, and switched seats with his wife in a school parking lot, caught on video).. so Black won a three candidate Dem primary, and won the general 52-48.

    Then in 2010, while going through a divorce, her soon to be ex-husband John Fischer ran v. her as the Republican. So she won 63-37 in 2010 mainly for that reason. Then she was unopposed in 2012.

    During her time in office, she got to be the chair of the Corrections Committee in a heavily Republican House (St. Francois got a few state prisons, thanks to the influence of legislators)

    So, she could top 40%. But the map might just have her winning Southern Jefferson, St. Francois, Ste. Genevieve, the bootheel and maybe Iron/Reynolds. Plus her husband (Jon Hagler) ran for office around Rolla, also in MO8.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 06:03:51 PM PST

    •  and (0+ / 0-)

      a link on the Aycock front

      The nomination meeting for the Ds is on Sunday.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 06:11:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Running against her (0+ / 0-)

      during their divorce. Wow. Sounds like a good get though.

      •  Another oddity (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        drhoosierdem

        The laughably ineffective MO-RTL PAC ruled out endorsing Kinder, Wendall "Open 2014 Primary" Bailey, Todd Richardson, Dr Dan Brown or Jason Crowell (the last 3 over MOSIRA, a stem-cell research related bill that Rs passed). They endorsed a Constitution Party nominee (former State Rep Cynthia Davis) over Kinder. And for reference, they're unhappy that Bailey ran as a pro-choice Republican in 1992.

        But in contrast, Linda Black somehow got rated as pro-life by them and didn't get put on the MOSIRA blacklist (there's some complexities that bill which I forget at this time). An endorsement or lack of one won't change much since the MO-RTL PAC is to RTLers as the Socialist Labor Party is to Socialists.

        Hopefully the "which people in schools should have concealed guns" part of the campaign is handled well by her campaign considering she is a teacher and all. But she's undoubtedly a moderate Dem (I was represented by the same sort of Dems for 7 years on the state level, I don't reflexively dislike those Dems because they could be worse, they could be Republicans)

        It's always good to get a candidate who won their last election.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:36:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  WI-Gov: Oops! (0+ / 0-)

    Scott Walker, or whoever else maintains Walker's gubernatorial Twitter account, made a rather embarrassing gaffe via Twitter:

    Put some Sta-Bil into the gas tax of my Harley Davidson Road King and let it run for 5 minutes. Can't wait until summer!
    Either Walker or whoever runs his Twitter account obviously meant to type gas tank instead of gas tax.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 06:09:26 PM PST

  •  FL House speaker: Changing electoral college is (10+ / 0-)

    for sore losers.

    "To me, that's like saying in a football game, 'We should have only three quarters, because we were winning after three quarters and the beat us in the fourth," Weatherford, a Republican, told the Herald/Times. "I don't think we need to change the rules of the game, I think we need to get better."

    Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/...

  •  WATN: Former Georgia House Speaker... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

    Former Georgia State House Speaker Terry Coleman was arrested recently at Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson Airport for trying to take a gun aboard his flight.  Coleman was the last Democratic Speaker of the Georgia State House, holding the position for two years after the long-serving Tom Murphy lost his House seat in 2002 and before Republicans took the State House in 2004.

    By the way, surely I'm the only one who saw the headline "Former Speaker of the House accused of taking gun through airport" and thought it would be Glenn Richardson.

  •  WI-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    If anyone is concerned about Tom Barrett possibly running for Governor of Wisconsin for a third time, you probably won't have to worry about that.

    Face it, Tom Barrett is probably not going to be able to win a Democratic gubernatorial primary in Wisconsin since he's now willing to "stand with Walker" on the school voucher issue.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 09:12:52 PM PST

  •  FL-18 (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, James Allen, MichaelNY

    Is anyone else on Patrick Murphy's email list? I gave him some cash last year and never unsubscribed. I think I get more emails from him than OFA. Hopefully that is a good thing.

  •  Long Beach Mayor (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    http://www.presstelegram.com/...

    Damon Dunn the 2010 GOP nominee for SOS told a meeting of Republicans that he left the party. I wonder if it will get him any farther than Nathan Fletcher.

    29, M, Swingnut, CA-38 resident. Chairman of the DKE Ginger Left-handed caucus. Huge Angels, Lakers, Bruins, Kings, Galaxy fan. Follow me on Twitter: @Artesialove

    by uclabruin18 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 10:54:59 PM PST

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