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10:48 AM PT: Special Elections: A brief wrap-up from Johnny of Tuesday's lone affair:

Iowa HD-52: It was a Democratic hold; Todd Pritchard defeated Republican Dennis Litterer 54-44, with independent Craig Clark pulling in 2 percent.

11:17 AM PT: NJ-Sen: Quinnipiac is the latest pollster to show Newark Mayor Cory Booker beating Sen. Frank Lautenberg in a hypothetical primary, this time by a margin of 51-30. That's less brutal for the incumbent than the 59-22 Booker edge PPP saw in November, but roughly in line (at least in terms of the spread) with FDU's 42-40 lead for Booker earlier this month.

Meanwhile, a separate new poll from Merriman River, for the pro-Booker group PowerPAC, more or less splits the difference, putting Booker ahead 48-21. After harping on voter concerns about Lautenberg's age, they also test a multi-way affair in the event he retires. In this four-candidate scenario, Booker still dominates with 48, while Rep. Rob Andrews takes 10, Rep. Frank Pallone 8, and state Senate President Stephen Sweeney 6, with 28 percent undecided.

And speaking of Sweeney, he just confirmed that he is indeed also looking at a Senate bid; previously, he'd only publicly mooted this year's gubernatorial race, but he's always seemed very unlikely to pull the trigger.

11:21 AM PT: NJ-Gov: Quinnipiac also has some fresh gubernatorial numbers, but they're still just as brutal for Democrats as they and every other pollster have found since Hurricane Sandy. Click through if you need to directly experience how painful Chris Christie's 30-to-40-point leads actually are.

11:46 AM PT: WV-Sen: The new Republican kid on the pollster block, Harper Polling, is offering up their first-ever horserace numbers, in this case, for West Virginia. They have results for both some hypothetical primary matchups, as well as potential general election head-to-heads, all to the hundredths of a percent (extra accurate!) and complete with snarky comments.

On the GOP side, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito takes over 70 percent in separate pairings against Rep. David McKinley (who's already ruled out a run) and brand-new ultraconservative state AG Patrick Morrisey. In a three-way Dem affair, Rep. Nick Rahall leads with 38 percent while state Supreme Court Justice Robin Davis takes 17 and ex-Sen. Carte Goodwin just 8. As for the direct matchups, Capito beats Rahall 50-32, Goodwin 53-28, and Davis 51-24.

P.S. On a methodological note, does anyone else have issues with this ideology question: "On political issues, do you consider yourself to be Very Conservative, Somewhat Conservative, Moderate or Liberal"? I realize this is West Virginia, but two conservative options versus just one liberal choice? Hrm. Harper also wound up with a sample that was just 9 percent liberal; even in 2010, WV voters clocked in at 15 percent liberal (and 18 percent in 2008).

12:01 PM PT: Votes: I'm not seeing a lot of patterns in Wednesday's roll call to eliminate the debt ceiling for the next three months, which passed by a wide 285-144 majority but saw 33 Republicans vote "no" and 86 Democrats vote "yes." There are plenty of your usual dystopian crazies among the GOP dissenters (Justin Amash, Michele Bachmann), but also some folks in much more moderate districts (Joe Heck, Pete King). The Dem ayes seem to include a lot of freshman and/or more vulnerable members, but when you're talking about over 40 percent of the caucus, it's harder to identify clear trends.

12:17 PM PT: Electoral College: Well, the Virginia state Senate is already at it again. Just two days after their underhanded maneuvering to force through a new redistricting plan, Republicans in the chamber are advancing a bill that would award the state's electoral votes according to congressional district. According to Daily Kos Elections' analysis, Mitt Romney won seven districts in Virginia versus four for Barack Obama, even though the president carried the state (and all 13 of its EVs) by four percent last year.

Even more dastardly, from the text of the legislation, it appears that the two "extra" electoral votes (which correspond to the state's U.S. senators) would go to whomever won the most CDs, not the overall winner of the statewide popular vote (as is currently the case in Maine and Nebraska). That means Romney would have nabbed nine EVs versus just four for Obama. Democracy! The only good news is that one Republican senator, Jill Holtzman Vogel, sided against the legislation in a subcommittee vote. While the measure is still likely to head to the Senate floor for a full vote, if Holtzman continues to defect (or any other Republican joins her), the scheme is doomed, since the chamber is evenly divided between the two parties.

1:04 PM PT: VA Redistricting: Here's some interesting backstory to Virginia Republicans' re-redistricting plan for the state Senate, which shows you just how dastardly they behaved. All party-line votes (as this was sure to be) in the evenly-divided chamber require Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling to break ties, but Bolling, who lately has grown very alienated from his party, told GOP leaders he wasn't on board with their scheme. So Republicans deliberately waited until one Democrat was absent, giving them a momentary 20-19 edge. That happened on Monday, when civil rights hero and state Sen. Henry Marsh traveled just two hours north to Washington, DC to witness President Obama's second inauguration.

And in public comments since, Bolling has been very negative toward his colleagues. Through a spokesperson, Bolling says he has "grave concerns about the adoption of a revised redistricting plan at this point in the process, and it is not something that he supported" and adds that these kinds of legislative shenanigans "could set a dangerous precedent for future redistricting actions." Bolling has definitely gone rogue at this point, so that sounds like he'd pretty much have been a "no" to me—and that's exactly why the GOP made sure to go around him. If Republicans were looking for ways to avoid alienating Bolling further and dissuade him from an independent gubernatorial bid this year, they sure as hell screwed that one up.

1:20 PM PT: TX-St. Sen: On Wednesday, Texas state senators drew lots to determine which members would serve two-year terms and which would serve four—an unusual process necessitated by the way the state conducts decennial redistricting. Why is that? Well, ordinarily, senators are elected in staggered fashion, with half the chamber up every two years. But in order to avoid problems that plague states like California, where some citizens literally go without representation for two years each decade, all senators are up for re-election following the drawing of new maps. To return to their standard staggered system, lots are then drawn as described above; those who get stuck with two-year terms have to run again for a full four-year term in 2014.

A full list of who lucked out and who didn't is available here. The most prominent name on the short-straw list belongs to Democratic state Sen. Wendy Davis, who will now be up for re-election in 2014. That means she won't be able to run statewide, and it also means Davis, who was first elected in 2008 and re-elected in 2012, will now have to go before voters in midterm years. Both of Davis's victories in this difficult district came by narrow margins, so her prospects will likely be even tougher without presidential turnout to motivate Democratic-leaning voters. But she's a dedicated fighter and one of the most prominent Democrats in Texas. If anyone can pull it off, she can.

1:25 PM PT: Here's a better link (with some crosstabs) for that Merriman River NJ-Sen poll.

1:49 PM PT: NYC: Well, this would be interesting. City-wide primaries in New York City have traditionally been cockamamie affairs not just because they are held so late (September) but because they also require expensive, low-turnout runoffs two weeks later if no candidate gets more than 40 percent of the vote. While the runoffs were originally well-intentioned (you can read about their genesis here), staging three elections in the space of two months is obviously an absurdity. Even the epically dysfunctional, banana republican NYC Board of Elections is finally acknowledging reality and has begged the legislature to move the primary up to June.

But the even-more-lunatic legislature has refused to accommodate this request—no surprise, seeing as they insisted on having two separate primaries last year, after a judge forced the state to conduct federal primaries in June. (In a colossal waste, legislative primaries still took place in September.) So now the city board, confronted with yet another September election, is thinking outside the box: They're considering adopting instant-runoff voting for the primary. That would be a big change, and probably cause some confusion, but it would be a major improvement over the current state of affairs. And for that reason, I'm holding out very little hope that IRV actually gets implemented.

3:23 PM PT: MN-Gov: Al Franken isn't the only Minnesota Democrat who looks like he's in good shape for re-election: Gov. Mark Dayton starts off 2013 in strong form, too, according to PPP. With 53-39 approval ratings, Dayton leads a variety of potential GOP contenders by wide margins:

• 50-42 vs. ex-Gov. Tim Pawlenty

• 52-39 vs. ex-Sen. Norm Coleman

• 52-29 vs. state Rep. Kurt Zellers

• 53-30 vs. ex-state Rep. Keith Downey

• 53-29 vs. Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson

• 52-27 vs. state Sen. Julie Rosen

T-Paw's already said he won't run, so I suspect PPP included him simply to discern the GOP's high-water mark—and it ain't all that high. What's interesting is that Dayton secures a healthy 52-53 percent against all comers, whether they are well-known (and disliked) like Norm Coleman with his 35-43 favorability rating, or unknown (like everyone else).

And if Coleman wants his party's nomination, as Tom Jensen says, it's probably his for the taking. In a hypothetical GOP primary with all the names listed above, ol' Pruneface takes 57 percent, with no one else even registering over 5. While I'd guess Dayton would prefer to face a relative Some Dude who lacks Coleman's access to national donors, he has to be feeling pretty good about the fact that he begins the race in a solid position against even his strongest hypothetical opponent.

3:28 PM PT: VT-Gov: Considering he retired voluntarily several years ago, I never imagined ex-Gov. Jim Douglas would be interested in running for office again. But the Vermont GOP has no bench, so his name keeps popping up, particularly since the state elects its governor every two years rather than every four. (Next-door neighbor New Hampshire is the only other state that still does it that way.) And indeed, Douglas confirms once more that he's not making a statewide bid this cycle.

3:44 PM PT: MO-08: Local Democrats will pick their candidate this weekend for the June 4 special election to replace ex-Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, who officially resigned on Tuesday. Republicans, meanwhile, are supposed to choose a nominee within two weeks of the vacancy's creation. This dark-red seat (even Todd Akin carried it last year) is an all-but-certain GOP hold.

3:56 PM PT: IA-03: The DCCC reportedly feted three potential 2014 recruits at an Inauguration Day luncheon earlier this week; two of them we've mentioned before (Andrew Romanoff in Colorado and Erin Bilbray-Kohn in Nevada), but a third name is new to us: Iowa businessman Michael Sherzan. He's a top executive at an investment firm called Broker Dealer Financial Services Corp., so I'm guessing he probably has some personal wealth and also ought to be pretty well-connected. GOP Rep. Tom Latham performed very well last year, but Obama carried Iowa's 3rd by a 51-47 margin; with a stronger opponent this cycle, he should be a top target for Democrats.

4:20 PM PT: CA-17: It's easy to conclude that Ro Khanna made a major miscalculation last year. The former Obama official raised a million bucks for a possible run in California's 15th District almost overnight... but then opted to bide his time, perhaps waiting for veteran Dem Pete Stark to retire. But Dublin city councilor Eric Swalwell's insurgent campaign wrecked those plans with his stunning upset of Stark—and at just 32 years of age, Swalwell (also a Democrat) definitely isn't going anywhere any time soon. So what are Khanna and his huge FEC account to do?

Well, the San Francisco Chronicle's Carla Marinucci suggests that Khanna might shift his gaze one district to the south, to CA-17—something he explicitly did not rule out when asked. The 17th, though, is occupied by six-term Dem Rep. Mike Honda, and he certainly would be no pushover. In fact, I can't imagine he'd be an easier target than Swalwell: As Marinucci points out, he's the party's senior whip in the House, and he's also a member of the powerful Appropriations Committee. Yes, Khanna has friends in very high places, like Nancy Pelosi, but would they really turn against Honda?

It's hard to picture, so Marinucci hints at one more (purely rumorsville) scenario: Honda, who is 71, could get tapped for a post in the Obama administration, which would of course free up his seat. But the last time Khanna sat around waiting for senior Democrats to play out their chess games, he got upstaged by a younger, hungrier politico. He may not be so eager to cool his heels much longer, lest something similar happen again.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (9+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 06:00:10 AM PST

  •  dammit (19+ / 0-)

    Henry Marsh leaves for one day and VA Senate Republicans manage to delete this diary?

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 06:23:15 AM PST

  •  MN-Sen, MN-Gov (10+ / 0-)

    I think it is safe to say that Hennepin County Sheriff Rich Stanek (R) is taking himself out of the running by petitioning Joe Baden and Mark Dayton for stiffer gun control legislation.

    http://kstp.com/...

  •  NJ Gov (5+ / 0-)
    The governor deserves reelection, voters say 68 - 24 percent, with Democrats at 47 - 43 percent. Christie leads possible Democratic challengers by margins of 2-1 or higher:
    59 - 30 percent over State Sen. Richard Codey;
    63 - 22 percent over State Sen. Barbara Buono;
    61 - 25 percent over State Senate President Stephen Sweeney.
    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...
  •  If Comprehensive Immigration Reform happens in '13 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, xcave

    will it come with a instant right to vote?  And if 12M+ Latino immigrants are now allowed to vote will it flip any house seats and potentially Senate seats?  Probably not any Senate seats in 2014, but 2016 could have the McCain seat in play.  And could impact Gov races in NV, Az and NM could it not?  

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 06:52:36 AM PST

  •  JoAnn Emerson resigned. (11+ / 0-)

    House is down to 432 members (JJJ, Scott vacancies); it hasn't been at 435 since Christopher Lee's escapades (2/9/11), and can't get back there until at least June, when the Missouri special takes place.

  •  I had a dream last night... (15+ / 0-)

    That the senior Democratic U.S. senator from Nigeria died (his name was "Banana" something) and that I expressed shock and dismay about that to my girlfriend. President Goodluck Jonathan would have to appoint a replacement, but it was okay politically because Nigeria was a heavily Democratic state in my dream.

    And here I was looking forward to seeing NG-Sen in the Live Digest.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 08:14:28 AM PST

  •  So far 5 people have filed (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, abgin

    to run for the Oregon state senate in 2014, all Republicans, 4 of 5 are incumbents:
    Sen. Betsy Close of SD-08, which is D+7
    Dave Dotterer who is running for SD-03, which is D+2
    Sen. Alan Olsen of SD-20, which is R+2
    Sen. Bruce Starr of SD-15, which is D+6
    Sen. Chuck Thomsen of SD-26, which is D+2

    Only one person has filed for the state house, a Dem incumbent in a safe district in Portland.

    All of the senate candidates listed above have the potential to be in big races.  We'll likely capture at least SD-08 next year.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:00:43 AM PST

    •  Ah. SD-08 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen

      looks like a prime pick up opportunity, though I don't guess Democrats will have much shot at Olsen unless Martha Schrader runs again.

      In SD-03, is Alan Bates running for reelection? He's probably the strongest candidate Democrats could run in that district, which is pretty competitive, though Medford and Ashland are getting more Democratic like many western college towns.

      Looking at the complete beating Republican state Reps took in Washington County in 2012, I'd say Starr is second most vulnerable Republican, while Thomsen should be a top target and a real barnburner of a race.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 10:53:25 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  we have a few candidates who could (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14

        have the potential to make SD-20 a race.  Former state house speaker Dave Hunt is in the district, and he's a prolific fundraiser, unlike Olsen.  So, too, does Toby Forsberg, who ran for the old version of HD-39 (basically a mini-version of this district, R+3 in 04/08 numbers) and came within a few hundred votes of winning in 2008.  Or we can look at mayors, the two best probably being former mayor Melody Thompson of Canby or Bob Austin of Estacada.  Thompson was very popular in the most conservative city in the district, probably moreso than Martha Schrader, though perhaps less than Kurt.

        I've heard no indication that Senator Bates intends to go anywhere.  He seems to be happy where he is.

        Of note in SD-26, we'd held it before 2010 with Democrat Rick Metsger, a moderate Democrat who had been a local TV news guy.  I think it was about D+0 or D+1 in the previous decade.  Hood River County is still getting bluer.  It's a winnable district.  Metsger retired, and I don't know who else could run a serious campaign.  Our former state house reps are either already up there in years or have moved out of the district.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 12:29:51 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Didn't Democrats pick up the Hood River (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          State Rep district this time around?

          It's good Bates is running again in SD-03. He probably shouldn't have as many problems as in 2010 because the environment won't be that bad, his district is trending Democratic, and I recall that growth in the Medford-Ashland area meant SD-03 shrunk in redistricting and was shored up as part of the Republican's compromise.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 01:44:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Bates (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14

            the district stayed about the same in terms of partisan leanings, though, because of the compromise, and the need from the Republican standpoint to keep it swingy and keep the Medford house district safe.

            I should restate I haven't heard anything indicating Bates won't run again and I have every reason to believe he will, but I don't know he will for sure.  He took his race for granted in 2010, so I am not too worried about him running against the same candidate in a non-2010 year.  He was asked by a friend of mine who was the League of Conservation Voters coordinator down there if there was anything OLCV could do to help him, fairly late in the race, and he responded nope, but is there a way I can help OLCV?  I don't think he'll take it for granted again.

            We didn't win the Hood River house district.  We picked up the other nested district.  The Hood River district everyone wrote off because the candidate who won the primary promised not to take donations from outside the district or over $50.  He got 48% of the vote, so that district seems to have a high Dem floor, despite being only about D+1.  So altogether, with the narrow win in the other district, and the 48% there, we probably got about 50% of the state house vote in Thomsen's senate district.

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 05:43:17 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I didn't realize (0+ / 0-)

              Oregon State House seats were based in State Senate districts.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 11:52:20 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

  •  did any one watch the Clinton hearings (14+ / 0-)

    and saw her putthat idiot from Wisconsin in his place? I know DK just posted on the front page

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:08:59 AM PST

    •  Found this link: (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lordpet8, BeloitDem, MBishop1, MichaelNY

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:18:39 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  This man should be public enemy no. 1 (10+ / 0-)

        for senate dems in 2016. I cant wait till then.

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

        by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:22:03 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Oh, he will. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          My only somewhat-worry is that the Democratic primary field gets too crowded (or the DSCC and the grassroots end up on opposite ends of support).

          •  Yeah I kinda worry bout too (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            JBraden, MichaelNY

            cause I think you'll have some ambitious Dems in the state senate who don't really have a launching pad sorta speak. I think everyone here knows by now who I prefer the Dem should be for this  race.

            Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

            by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 10:25:28 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I would watch out for Chris Larson (6+ / 0-)

              He is very ambitious and hard working. He also has incredible political skills with how he was elected to the Senate, how he was elected Minority Leader, and how he is trying to build an organization training Democratic candidates. Given that he fought hard to be Minority Leader, I am thinking he has his sights on something higher.  I do not think he can win Moore's seat as even though it is not majority AA, there would be pressure to keep it AA especially with Lena Taylor and Nikiya Harris both being capable candidates.  While I do not think he would fight Ron Kind in a primary, if there is a candidate that would do so it would be him.

              Social Democrat, WI-05

              by glame on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 10:54:39 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I would look out for Chris Abele too (0+ / 0-)

                He dominated his first election for Milwaukee County Executive, despite the low turnout nature of the off-year election that lent the suburban portions of the county much more influence. He seems to be a pretty popular local administrator, with a lot of charity and business connections and a profile that appeals to more moderate suburban voters.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 11:05:25 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Not sure he'd be interested. (0+ / 0-)

                  He hasn't exactly been the most Partisan figure in the world.

                  •  Abele isn't all that far to the left of Walker (0+ / 0-)

                    Chris Abele is basically a socially liberal version of Scott Walker. To put it mildly, he'd need a clown car with many, many primary challengers to win a Democratic primary in WI-4.

                    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

                    by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 01:01:42 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Why do you say that? (3+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      James Allen, MichaelNY, bumiputera

                      He's been against a lot of Walker's budget cuts and has said he's open to raising taxes if he has too, something that local administrators in general, liberal or conservative, are generally cautious and unwilling to do. He's donated and fundraised for lots of Democrats, including Barack Obama and Jim Doyle. I don't think he qualifies as a "socially liberal Scott Walker" just because he might be a little more in the Melissa Bean wing of the Democratic party when it comes to economic issues than he is Russ Feingold's wing.

                      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                      by ArkDem14 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 01:41:11 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  Read some of these blog posts (0+ / 0-)

                        Link

                        If that doesn't scream "Socially-liberal version of Scott Walker", I don't know what does.

                        Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

                        by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 01:51:33 PM PST

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  I don't take such volatile (4+ / 0-)
                          Recommended by:
                          WisJohn, OGGoldy, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                          and obviously biased sources at face value. Just like I don't agree with a lot of the ranting and far-left diaries peddled on DKos. I was basing my position on Abele based on some interviews I'd read, and some news articles. Still relatively poor sources of information, but at least with some degree of credibility. And they lack the sort of pissy, activist tone that always leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

                          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                          by ArkDem14 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 02:04:29 PM PST

                          [ Parent ]

              •  Oh My God. (0+ / 0-)

                A Lena Taylor vs. Nikiya Harris primary would have some epic fireworks.

                •  Particularly since Harris is a Larsonite (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  BeloitDem, DownstateDemocrat

                  and Taylor HATES Larson.  I would think Taylor would be favored, but after some of her shenanigans this past summer I think she burned some bridges.

                  Social Democrat, WI-05

                  by glame on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 11:34:35 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Yeah, the tension last Summer (0+ / 0-)

                    Was a large part of what I was referring too - we'd see all that, but larger. Also While Lena Taylor might be slightly favored right now, but I doesn't look like Gwen Moore is particularly in danger of retiring this year, so depending on how well Harris establishes herself, that might not be true by the time this race comes up.

          •  I would think if Ron Kind runs (6+ / 0-)

            that effectively clears the field.

            I suppose the grassroots might find him too conservative, but I dont know if there is enough in his record to garner a significant challenge from the left.

            •  I hope so (4+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              jj32, JBraden, WisJohn, MichaelNY

              and hope the DSCC really around him in a heartbeat. I don't think he's too conservative. I think he'll be more of a balance if he serves with Tammy Baldwin in the senate

              Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

              by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 10:49:39 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

            •  I think Kind would get a challenge from the left (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY

              Ron Kind would have no support in the grassroots left, especially in Madison, and I think he'd have a hard time in Milwaukee too. He's been pretty outspoken about being a centrist and thinking that Tammy Baldwin and Obama are too far to the left - and that won't play well in a statewide primary. I don't think he'd have labor support either. When he was making noises about challenging Tammy in 2012, it was explicitly to challenge her from the right, and there's a reason he didn't do it, because he would have lost. The only way he gets nominated is if progressives can't settle one one candidate to go against him head-to-head (which of course is possible). I also think there's a legitimate chance Feingold runs in 2016. There's a reason he has not shown any interest in running for Governor, and I don't think it's just that he wants to stay out of politics. Unless he sees a rising star that can beat RoJo and carry the progressive banner, I think Russ is at least a 50/50 shot to jump in and take down RoJo himself, and you gotta believe that would feel good.

          •  Wonder what Lori Compas is doing. (7+ / 0-)

            24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

            by HoosierD42 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 10:53:40 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  how would you compare him to Kasten? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          regardless, I think a generic competent democrat should be able to defeat him by ten points.

          RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

          by demographicarmageddon on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 06:54:01 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Bob Kasten? (0+ / 0-)

            IDK I was 3 years old when Feingold defeated him LOL, plus that was a presidential year and he benefited with Clinton on top of the ticket.

            I don't think Kasten can be compared to Johnson. Because even though I don't know a thing about Kasten, just that he was elected in a wave year, and voted out in a some wave year year, I don't think he was a simpleton like Johnson.

            My opinion is that Johnson is a dead man walking, and if Dems don't run a muck in the primary then this seat will be easy pickings. I like Ron Kind and I think he runs, but if he doesn't there's someone who going to runs from a lower lauching pad like the state senate, then I hope Jennifer Shilling runs.

            Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

            by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 07:17:27 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Kasten did not lose in a wave year (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              There was no wave at all in 1992.  Clinton had no coattails, given that he didn't reach 50% in Wisconsin or any other purple state or many blue states.

              Kasten was personally unpopular and was expected to lose to any Democrat.  Feingold was the upset winner in the Democratic primary, beating two heavyweights who both were expected to beat Kasten.  When Feingold won the primary, he, too, was expected to beat Kasten, and did.

              I don't know the details why Kasten was unpopular.  I just remember it was well-reported at the time that he was expected to lose all along, even long before the Dems picked a nominee.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 08:06:11 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  there you go (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY, bumiputera

                Like I said I was 3 at the time, so my guesses was jus speculations.

                He was elected in 1980 when alot of Senate Dem giants lost in the Reagan Revolution, who people didn't think were going to lose at the beginning.

                Gaylord Nelson (Wisconsin)
                Herman Talmadge (Georgia)
                Warren G. Magnuson (Washington)
                Birch Bayh (Indiana)

                and countless others who I can't think of right now

                Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

                by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 08:36:58 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  Kasten was a drunk (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                DCCyclone, MichaelNY

                but he was never popular for any reason... he never got more than 51% of the vote statewide.

                Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                by tommypaine on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 08:57:06 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  yea u right (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  just saw it on his wiki page

                  n 1985 Kasten was arrested and charged with driving under the influence after a District of Columbia police officer observed him running a red light and driving on the wrong  side of the road. The charges were later dropped. Kasten's wiki page
                  Ryan work as his staffer on the hill from what I know

                  Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

                  by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 10:26:08 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

    •  It would have to be RoJo (9+ / 0-)

      The biggest flaming embarrassment to our state.

      Social Democrat, WI-05

      by glame on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 10:10:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Embarassed that Ron Johnson (7+ / 0-)

      Represents my state.

      That smack down was especially great after what Senate Republicans did to Ambassador Rice, although nothing can make up for that injustice.

      •  I wish Obama had stood up for Rice (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem

        the way Clinton did. Nothing against John Kerry, but standing up for Rice would have mean another woman of color as Secretary of State and not having to worry about a special election in MA (granted that seems to be working out about as well as could be hoped).

        •  To be fair, he did stand up for her in public (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          JGibson, JBraden, askew, itskevin

          She withdrew her own name. Although it we'll never know for sure what went on behind the scenes, it's entirely possible she just didn't want to deal with the confirmation fight. Still, I wish he would have pushed her a bit more.

          •  Quote (5+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            R30A, askew, itskevin, MichaelNY, bumiputera

            OBAMA: Well, first of all, I’m not going to comment at this point on various nominations that I’ll put forward to fill out my Cabinet for the second term. Those are things that are still being discussed.

            But let me say specifically about Susan Rice, she has done exemplary work. She has represented the United States and our interests in the United Nations with skill and professionalism and toughness and grace.

            As I’ve said before, she made an appearance at the request of the White House in which she gave her best understanding of the intelligence that had been provided to her.

            If Senator McCain and Senator Graham and others want to go after somebody, they should go after me. And I’m happy to have that discussion with them. But for them to go after the U.N. Ambassador, who had nothing to do with Benghazi, and was simply making a presentation based on intelligence that she had received, and to besmirch her reputation is outrageous.

            ...but when they go after the U.N. Ambassador, apparently because they think she’s an easy target, then they’ve got a problem with me. And should I choose, if I think that she would be the best person to serve America in the capacity of the State Department, then I will nominate her. That's not a determination that I’ve made yet.

            "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

            by conspiracy on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 01:11:29 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Fair, but actions speak louder than words (0+ / 0-)

              Yes, it's possible Rice just didn't want the battle, and we'll never know if Obama begged her to accept the nomination privately or not. But she was obviously willing to take one for the team, which is precisely why Obama should not have allowed that to happen.

              •  The man said himself (8+ / 0-)

                No decisions had been made. This idea he only went with Kerry because of this is a myth.

                "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

                by conspiracy on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 01:27:50 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Thank you (5+ / 0-)

                  There was no indication that Rice was favored except in dubious news reports, the type that always get a lot of things wrong and are never reliable on this stuff.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 08:10:00 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Although (0+ / 0-)

                    Obama has tended to appoint members of his inner circle and/or like-minded people to his Cabinet, especially with this most recent slate. Rice was both of these things. By all accounts, Obama and Kerry were never that close. So I'm inclined to believe he preferred Rice.

                    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                    by HoosierD42 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:10:54 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Was he very close with Clinton? (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      The Caped Composer, bumiputera

                      That's the exact precedent. Plus, don't forget that Kerry played Romney in the debate preparation. The president himself talked about that when he announced the nomination of Kerry for Secretary of State.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:22:08 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

                    •  What's that based on? (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      MichaelNY, bumiputera

                      Forget like-minded, generally speaking it'd be odd to have a cabinet that isn't in sync with Obama, but members of his inner-circle? There are actually a surprisingly small number of people who one might consider part of Obama's "inner circle":

                      Eric Holder, Arne Duncan, and Kathleen Sebelius strike me as the only ones in the cabinet that one would consider to be at all close to Obama.

                      So I'm not entirely sure what your statement is even based on except for looking for a reason to believe that John Kerry was merely a second choice.

                      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                      by NMLib on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:30:53 AM PST

                      [ Parent ]

        •  He did (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew, The Caped Composer

          See the "Andrew Shepherd" press conference.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 01:20:58 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  Rand Paul (3+ / 0-)

      Sen Paul was even more of a douche.

      When he said, "If I were President, I would've fired you," she should've interrupted him with a "And we thank the benevolent lord Jesus that you aren't."

      23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

      by Stephen Schmitz on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 05:42:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MA-GOV: Don Berwick forms fundraising committee (10+ / 0-)

    link.

    He is a healthcare expert who Obama recess appointed to run the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid.

  •  Illinois House vote by county (11+ / 0-)

     photo ILbyHouseVote2012small_zps9277511e.png

    In total, Dems won 55.4% of the two party vote to Obama's 58.6%.

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:29:06 AM PST

  •  And I was right about Obama over-performing (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, MichaelNY

    on the east side of Portland.  House districts 42-47, all contained entirely within the east side of Portland, all saw Obama get a higher percentage of the 2-party vote in 2012 than in 2008.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:29:59 AM PST

  •  PPP MN-Gov Dayton stronger than Franken (13+ / 0-)

    53-39 approval

    Dayton 50-42 Pawlenty (44-50 fav-unfav)
    Dayton 53-39 Coleman (35-43 fav-unfav)
    Dayton 52-29 Zellers
    Dayton 53-30 Downey
    Dayton 52-27 Rosen
    Dayton 53-29 Johnson

    •  The more I get to know about Gov. Dayton, (8+ / 0-)

      the more I like him.  I think he'll sail to re-election.

      •  I don't have any problem with him (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, MichaelNY

        He is on the right side of every issue and seems not to be toxic, but I remember him acting very strangely as a senator.

        That was many years ago though, so hopefully he's gotten his life in order...

        Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

        by R30A on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 10:29:02 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Really? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        What about him do you find compelling? I mean, he has been a half ways decent governor, but even he says he was an abject failure in the Senate. He doesn't exactly have a compelling background, and his personality is exceptionally drab. I mean, I voted for him before and will vote for him again. But I don't see why he would draw fans, really.

        •  I think he's been a pretty good governor (6+ / 0-)

          in terms of ideology and being a stark opponent to conservatives in the state legislature.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 11:00:27 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  ^What ArkDem14 said. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          BeloitDem, askew, MichaelNY

          Dayton isn't really a natural politician, but the Tea Party legislature of his first two years gave him a chance to show a clearly contrasting vision.  And--whoda thunk?!--that vision was electorally rewarded in 2012.

          Plus, as I said earlier, Dayton seemed to be battling personal demons during his time in the Senate.

          •  Definitely not a natural politician, but (6+ / 0-)

            I think he's been one of the more courageous and ethical politicians, including when he was in the Senate. His speech in 2006 on the "federal marriage amendment" is one to remember: http://stonewallreview.blogspot.com/...

            He's a fundamentally decent person, albeit a mediocre public speaker and seemingly a bit of an odd guy in personality. I think he'll be reelected because he's done a solid job of standing up for MN values, and he hasn't had any scandals that I'm aware of. I think both he and Franken are going to have a lot easier times in 2014 than they did when they were first elected.

    •  I suspect that Dayton will win (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, JBraden, WisJohn, abgin, MichaelNY

      Although it really is against his history to actually run for reelection, but he has said he is running. My guess is that none of these Republicans are the nominee. Rosen is running, but I don't see her as viable in a primary given her voting record and her geographical disadvantage. Downey won't run as he desperately wants to be GOP chairman, and will likely get it. Coleman always wanted to be governor, but even he has to know he is quite trained from the recount fiasco. Pawlenty is done with Minnesota politics, but may run for president again. And who the heck is Johnson? Can't really do the PDF thing well on m phone...

      •  Jeff Johnson, Hennepin County Commissioner (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        who has said he might run for governor.

        No, I didnt know that, I had to look it up. :)

      •  Dayton and Franken seem really strong (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden, James Allen, askew, MichaelNY

        contrary to your own position, early PPP polling had Franken up by high single digits over Paulsen, who you said would make be moderately favored in such a campaign. At this rate I'm wondering if Republicans in the state will be able to put together any half-way decent statewide ticket. They look like they're heading in the direction of nominating unknown, conservative state legislators against their top two targets.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 10:56:32 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Franken v Paulsen (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          It has been since at least early 2011 that I felt that Feanken would be favored against Paulsen. In fact since then I have believed Franken to be the favorite against any Republican except for Arne Carlson and Jim Ramstad. I still feel these two would be favored against him, but only these two.

          •  Could Arne Carleson win a Republican Primary? (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            OGGoldy, ArkDem14, askew, MichaelNY

            I mean, they freaking disinvited him from their convention.

            •  Certainly not (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, MichaelNY

              He is persona non grata in Republican circles. And he would get laughed out of a GOP convention much as he was in 1990. That being said a Franken-Carlson race would favor Carlson, and I stand by that assertion.

              •  Of course, everybody likes Carlson (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                BeloitDem, James Allen, MichaelNY

                he's a really liberal Republican, who was a popular Governor who's been more like a Democrat of late than even an independent or a "centrist".

                Jim Ramstad I'd disagree on. Because he's been out of office six years and that's a long time in politics. He also never had the profile that Carlson did.

                "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

                by ArkDem14 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 01:36:33 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  In that regard re: Carlson (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  It actually seems more likely that Carlson would switch parties instead of running on the GOP line. Wasn't he actually expelled from the state party?

                  24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                  by HoosierD42 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:15:50 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

      •  How is it against his history? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Did he refrain from running for another reelection besides U.S. senate?

        •  Yea (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, MichaelNY

          State auditor in 1994. He basically said "f*** politics" at that point too.

        •  He didn't, that was it, OGGoldy's comment was... (0+ / 0-)

          ...strange.

          He didn't run for reelection to Senate because he had a terrible term with substance abuse interfering with his job performance and poor numbers...he was smart enough to realize it and not run, which by itself made him more savvy than almost any unpopular one-term elected official.

          OGGoldy pretty consistently seems to dislike liberals.  I think he's an Iron Range guy, part of the more culturally conservative tradition of rural Democrats.  He disdains Keith Ellison and thinks little of Al Franken and Mark Dayton, all died-in-the-wool liberals.  I see Goldy's comments on Dayton here as his own biases showing through, not an accurate reflection of Dayton who might not have the wild popularity of Mark Warner in Virginia, but Dayton is very clearly plenty popular just based on polling.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 08:29:37 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  should be safe (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin, itskevin, MichaelNY

      Any governor with positive net approvals is probably a lock for reelection unless the state has a strong lean toward the other party and/or something really bad happens before the next election.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 10:48:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MO8 Dems picking a nominee on Sunday (6+ / 0-)

    The 3 candidates appear to be Barry Aycock (ag businessman who donated a lot of money to MO Dems), state Rep Linda Black of St Francois County and Todd Mahn.

    http://www.semissourian.com/...

    The Cape Girardeau Dems already endorsed Aycock

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:45:49 AM PST

    •  I'd love it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      if we managed to pull a Hochul here (and/or in SC-1)...but I'm not getting my hopes up.  ;-)

      •  Well Aycock donated around 50k in 2012 (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden, MichaelNY

        Missouri has no campaign donation limits thus fun. So in theory, he could find a good 5 or 6 digit total to start himself off. Which means he could cover the StL and Springfield markets to go along with the Cape market. I'd guess some of the most important money to raise is the kickstarter money to get the campaign going and get a good plan in place

        Although the turnout in SEMO on 11/6 was pretty bad so who knows how high turnout would be for a June Special Election where nothing else will be on the ballot

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 10:30:36 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yeah, don't get your hopes up but... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden, MichaelNY

        never say never, either. In special elections, anything can happen (as we've been learning)

        Although this district is a lot more conservative than Hochul's.

  •  Boehner needs Democratic votes again (9+ / 0-)

    http://clerk.house.gov/...

    Though he did get the majority of his caucus to back him this time.

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 10:37:47 AM PST

  •  Debt ceiling vote. (6+ / 0-)

    Looks like a classic "left and right vs. the middle" vote, with the Dem caucus split 86/111.  Apparently most of the Dems voting against waited until it was up to 217.  Also, DeFazio voted for it, and I'm surprised when he votes for anything.

    Of new members? Duckworth, Meng, Esty, Maloney, Gallego, Vela, Takano, Sinema, Ruiz, Peters, O'Rourke, Heck, Horsford, Kilmer, Kuster, Lowenthal, Lujan Grisham, Nolan, Enyart, Castro, Bustos, Brownley, Bera voted "yea".  Beatty, Cartwright, Frankel, Gabbard, Garcia, Huffman, Jeffries, Veasey, Vargas, Swalwell voted "nay".

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 10:45:32 AM PST

  •  GOP Electoral plans still come up short (4+ / 0-)

    So I was bored the other night and thought to test out what would have happened if the GOP was able to split the electoral vote of states by district for the 2012 election. I only looked at states where Obama won and Republicans had trifecta in (PA, MI, WI, FL, VA, OH). I basically gave an electoral vote for every district the candidate carried plus a 2 extra for the candidate winning statewide.

    Here's what I got
    Florida:
    11 Districts carried by Obama  + 2 for winning statewide = 13 Obama leaving 16 for Romney

    Wisconsin:
    3 Districts carried by Obama  + 2 for winning statewide = 5 for Obama and 5 for Romney

    Michigan:
    5 Districts carried by Obama  + 2 for winning statewide = 7 for Obama and 9 for Romney

    Pennsylvania:
    5 Districts carried by Obama  + 2 for winning statewide = 7 for Obama and 13 for Romney

    Ohio:
    4 Districts carried by Obama  + 2 for winning statewide = 6 for Obama and 12 for Romney

    Virginia:
    4 Districts carried by Obama  + 2 for winning statewide = 6 for Obama and 7 for Romney

    So Romney would gain a total of 62 electoral votes moving him up to 268 and thus come up just barely short of winning the presidency. So if anything the GOP should have worked a little harder on the redistricting if they wanted to use this route to win the presidency.

    "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

    by lordpet8 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 11:00:13 AM PST

  •  Bad polling news out of WV-Sen (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Christopher Walker, MBishop1

    Though hardly surprising

    http://wvmetronews.com/...

    Don't know much about Harper Polling, but what they have isn't great.

    Capito-50
    Rahall-32

    And that's the best of the Dems. Rahall leads in a hypothetical primary with 38, Robin Davis at 17, and Carte Goodwin at 8.

    Our best hope is clearly a challenge from the right, maybe even a 3rd party run aimed at abortion (she's shockingly pro-choice). Rahall is barely beating Capito even in his own district.

  •  How does Israeli elections affect Netanyahu? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, dc1000, gabjoh, MichaelNY

    Since the center and center-left and left parties won't coalition with the Arab parties (and vice versa), Netanyahu will likely remain PM.  But how does it affect him policy-wise?  will he have to tread the line more carefully since the right-of-center and right-wing parties have 42 (and ultra-orthodoxes have 18, adding up to 60, exactly half the Knesset) and thus making it easier to have a vote of no confidence against him?

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 11:28:53 AM PST

    •  Haaretz indicates that he'll be weaker. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, kman23, MichaelNY

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 11:29:22 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Election certainly wasnt what Netanyahu was (9+ / 0-)

      expecting. I think when he called the election, he though he would end up a big win, and instead his party lost 11 seats, I believe.

      Since it seems like Yesh Atid has to be in a coalition, for Netanyahu to remain PM, I think it will lead to more moderation, at least on domestic issues.

      One thing that surprised me reading about the election: No one party has ever won a majority in Israel's history. They've always had coalitions form the majority in the government.  

    •  Marginally (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, KingofSpades, gabjoh

      His coalition now hinges on Yesh Atid (Lapid), but Lapid is only marginally to his "left" on foreign affairs (and not at all to his left domestically.)

      All I can say is, I hope being in government is as kind to Yesh Atid as it was to Kadima. Leftists swung late to Lapid to try to moderate Netanyahu's new coalition (which Lapid intended to join regardless), so if Lapid is smart he'll try to do just that, but I don't think it'll work out that way.

      (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

      by Setsuna Mudo on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 12:31:22 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I do think Lapid will join the coalition (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        BeloitDem, KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        Of course, if I were Lapid, I would join with the leftists and centrists to form a government, because then I would be prime minister instead of second banana to a prime minister who is infamous for not playing nice with others.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 12:42:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Haaretz has portrayed (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, gabjoh, MichaelNY

        Yesh Atid as significantly more moderate on foreign policy issues than Netanyahu is.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 01:22:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Isn't their bigges distinguishing issue (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, bumiputera

        the subsidies and military non-participation of the ultra-Orthodox? (Granted, this is based on a 90 second NPR story, all I know about them.) If so, it seems difficult to see them in a coalition with Shas et al.

        How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

        by gabjoh on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 04:32:15 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY, gabjoh

          That's a key plank for Lapid, who has said he won't be a "fig leaf" for a right-wing government. If Netanyahu tries to partner with him, that presumably means Lapid (if he stands firm) wouldn't join a coalition with Shas or UTJ on secularist grounds, and possibly HaBayit HeYehudi on foreign policy grounds.

          Likud and Yesh Atid together would be about 50 seats, so Netanyahu would need around 10 more (plus I'm sure he'd want some padding). Labor looks like they have about 15 seats, so that would theoretically be enough to do it. But somehow these kind of all-secular coalitions never seem to form.

          (And man has Israeli politics gotten weird. I used to follow it very, very closely in college. I even ran a simulation patterned after the Model UN called the Model Israeli Knesset! But ever since Labor went over to Bibi's side, everything's just been so through-the-looking-glass.)

          Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

          by David Nir on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 06:57:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  If I had to guess (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            I think Netanyahu has to be pissed Kadima didn't hit the 2% needed to gain seats.

            I could seed a Likud-Yesh Atid-Kadima-(Tzipi Livni party) coalition. Livni would probably join a center right coalition with Netanyahu and Lapid, most likely in her old spot as foreign minister.

            Now, I think it'll be a Likud-Yesh Atid-Habayit coalition, one that is fairly cohesive on domestic issues but all over the place on foreign affairs.

            There will most likely be new elections in 2014.

            23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

            by Stephen Schmitz on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:35:48 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Hmm (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I thought Kadima just barely scraped 2%? See here.

              Likud-Yesh-Movement-Kadima would not be large enough, though. That's only 58 seats. So if Netanyahu wants to avoid Shas/UTJ/HaBayit, he simply has to cut a deal with Labor. (The only other people left are all left-wing parties.)

              Still, as I say, purely centrist and/or purely secular coalitions never seem to get formed. (Bizarre that I could ever call Likud, especially a Likud headed by Bibi that merged with fucking Lieberman's party, "centrist," but compared to HaBayit, they are.) And I'd have to guess that HaBayit is much less unacceptable to Lapid than the religious parties. I mean, he can't possibly join a coalition with Shas and UTJ, right?

              New elections in 2014 is a very bold prediction!

              Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

              by David Nir on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 08:17:28 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

    •  It's always funny... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, MichaelNY

      ...what gets called "left" in Israel.  People complain about how right-wing the United States is, or at least how little difference there is between the parties.  And, maybe for a Western democracy that's true up to a point.  But there is so little difference to foreign policy in Israel on the political scale it's not funny.  I believe the head of "centrist" party that cut into Bibi's coalition literally said in frustration (and probably to get votes) that he wished he didn't even have to deal with the Arabs.  Like, just cold came out and said it, and that kind of offensive and divisive ideology and talking points seem not only to be expected in Israel, but it's celebrated, and this is called the "left"?

      •  Politicians shouldn't say things like that (0+ / 0-)

        But you gotta admit, it would be a whole lot easier for Israelis if they didn't have to deal with Arabs, and vice versa.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 11:34:56 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  well, as you said, he's called centrist (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        and the Palestine issue is divorced from the rest of the political issues you'd normally put on a left-right spectrum.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:26:17 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  NJ-SEN: Good to see an open primary get (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, MichaelNY

    polled here.

    I'm surprised they didnt include Shelia Oliver, the state Assembly Speaker, who didnt rule out a run.

    But really, Pallone would probably be Booker's strongest opponent, and right now, he doesnt seem like much competition at all.

    A messy primary here is the only thing that worries me, although any Republican would still have an uphill climb.

  •  What about "severely" conservative? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden

    Remember him?

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 11:51:50 AM PST

  •  More MO8 news (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, JBraden, gabjoh, MichaelNY

    via Erin Ragan on Twitter:

    #MO8 GOP committee to meet to nominate candidate at 10 a.m. on Feb. 9 in Van Buren, Mo.
    Van Buren, population 819, will be hosting the 80ish member committee meeting. So nearly 10% of the local population that morning will be Republican Committee members.

    There's a solid chance that they're not gonna pick Kinder (the only MO state-level R to win in 2008 and 2012) but will pick Todd Richardson of Poplar Bluff. I think the top 3 contenders now are Kinder, Richardson and Lloyd Smith of Cape (long time Emerson district director, MOGOP bigwig who recently got booted from the exec director role). Steelman has no shot.

    Richardson would be the first Poplar Bluff resident to ever serve in Congress. But it'd be the first time since 1981-1983 that Cape Girardeau was represented by a non-Cape resident (Bill Emerson lived in Hillsboro before moving south to Cape after redistricting). And if we go farther back, the streak is at 42 years (1969-1981, 1983-2013) right now.

    Kennett, MO did have a streak of 34 years (1935-1969 with two Congressmen).

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 12:40:10 PM PST

  •  VA electoral college (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Would that have any voting rights act implications?

    Let's hope it fails, although I bet it passes...

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 12:48:54 PM PST

    •  going for a preclearance claim here (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      could help if they try similar things down the road in other VRA-effected states.

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 12:52:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  One GOP senator voted no in subcommittee (4+ / 0-)

      My guess is that she isn't the only one.

      •  I almost hope... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        R30A, gabjoh, bumiputera

        This does pass. Maybe then people would start paying more attention to redistricting, which as sawolf documented in his excellent diary yesterday is an immutable obstacle to Democrats taking back the House unless fair redistricting is instituted in key gerrymandered states.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 12:56:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The scant polling I've seen on this (0+ / 0-)

          Says people quite like the idea. If it gets passed without debate people don't get the opportunity to find out how bad it is.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 12:59:43 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  I'm more hopeful on Bolling opposing the measure (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, MichaelNY

        The Dems will think twice from now on and make sure they have all 20 members present to oppose the bill.

        In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

        by lordpet8 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 01:27:10 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  Then it's sunk, and also... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...McDonnell has to approve this.

        Which he has reason not to do!

        He wants to run for President in 2016, when he would anticipate winning Virginia...and he's going to sign a bill that would give away 3 electoral votes?

        Meanwhile, I would bet Bolling votes "no" if it came down to it, it's a way for him to get attention at his time of high pique.

        And if any GOP state Senator voted "no" already, then it's already toast.  No Democrat will vote for this, absolutely no one on our side has any self-interest in voting for this.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 08:37:01 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  They really are putting all their eggs into (4+ / 0-)

      same basket, kinda risky if you ask me. Hoping and praying their districts hold up in 4 years.
      Who is say that we don't win CD 4(romney won it with just 50.1%), CD 10(Romney 49.9%), or even CD 5 (Romney 52.5%)

      In fact, the occasional victory for the GOP cannot hide the fact that this country is fast heading into another era, not of two-party democracy, but a party-and-a-half system. And the GOP is the half a party- Larry Sabato

      by lordpet8 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 01:36:04 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Why would McDonnell sign the EV change bill? (10+ / 0-)

    If he wants to run for President, wouldn't he want all of the Virginia votes in his back pocket?  I mean odds are great that if he was the GOP candidate he'd win the State which would give him all 13 EV's, whereas if he signed this plan, it would cost him at least 5.  

    Also it would hurt his argument in the primary "Hey voters, I lock up Virginia for us - a key swing state".  And his chances as a VP selection would go down as well if the Presidential candidate is looking to flip a close state.  

    Any state that does do this I hope the Obama WH steps in and/or the DOJ.  This is bald faced attempted rigging of the Presidential election - and having EV's awarded by gerrymandered to hell congressional districts shouldn't be allowed.  

    Where is Kaine and Warner in speaking up against this stuff? They need to call out how bullshit it is.  

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 12:49:50 PM PST

  •  WV-Sen, I look forward to seeing a REAL poll on (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SouthernINDem, MichaelNY

    this race and I hope PPP does one very soon.

    Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

    by poopdogcomedy on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 01:19:06 PM PST

  •  TX-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wwmiv

    Am I missing something or does that not make Wendy Davis more likely to run for governor instead of re-election?

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 01:24:27 PM PST

    •  I'd say less (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      I think less likely only because she'd have to give up her Senate seat.  There's of course no guarantee she'd win re-election, but I think she's in a stronger position running for re-election versus jumping to Gov.

      •  Yet if she isn't re-elected (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        abgin, DCCyclone

        She is left with nothing. Risk-reward. I guess the calculation depends how tough it might be to hold what she has weighed against the outside shot at actually being elected governor. Slim for the latter I'd say but if that is the case then there seems little point in giving serious consideration at all to the possibility of her running for higher office.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 01:49:02 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Interim maps are also still in place (0+ / 0-)

          for the State Senate, so redistricting will have to be done again. Republicans will surely try to tweak her district as much as they can get away with (but probably not the radical chopping it up that they tried and failed at last time).

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 02:03:11 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  No (0+ / 0-)

            IIRC, the Senate map was left intact by the court.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 02:57:52 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  All interim (0+ / 0-)

              http://www.tlc.state.tx.us/...

              According to the state website, all three maps are court ordered interim maps.

              •  Yes (0+ / 0-)

                But my understanding was that the only reason the state is calling this an interim map is because the state-drawn map (which, again, IIRC the court left intact for the 2012 elections) is still in court proceedings. If a higher court decides that something is awry with the state drawn senate map, then they can create or demand a remedy for subsequent elections, but the current court in its proceedings found no need to do so.

                However, I might be recalling incorrectly as my focus was more on the state house and congressional during the proceedings.

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 03:11:21 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

    •  Er well (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY

      Davis basically said she plans to run again:

      "Obviously I was disappointed but will happily run again on the issues that I know are of concern to the district that I represent," said Davis, a Democrat who is now in her second term.
      Not 100% definitive, but definitely you'd have to call it likely, or at least, more likely than not.

      Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

      by David Nir on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 06:44:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  2nd third of Oregon's legislative PVIs (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, abgin

    hd21 D+6 (D trend)
    hd22 D+4 (D trend)
    hd23 R+7 (R trend)
    hd24 R+3 (D trend)
    hd25 R+7 (D trend)
    hd26 R+1 (D trend)
    hd27 D+13 (D trend)
    hd28 D+10 (D trend)
    hd29 D+4 (D trend)
    hd30 D+7 (D trend)
    hd31 D+3 (R trend)
    hd32 D+3 (R trend)
    hd33 D+16 (D trend)
    hd34 D+14 (D trend)
    hd35 D+11 (D trend)
    hd36 D+30 (D trend)
    hd37 D+3 (D trend)
    hd38 D+16 (D trend)
    hd39 R+7 (R trend)
    hd40 D+3 (R trend)

    sd11 D+5 (D trend)
    sd12 R+5 (D trend)
    sd13 R+4 (D trend)
    sd14 D+12 (D trend)
    sd15 D+6 (D trend)
    sd16 D+3 (R trend)
    sd17 D+15 (D trend)
    sd18 D+21 (D trend)
    sd19 D+10 (D trend)
    sd20 R+2 (R trend)

    All districts except hd37 and sd15 are held by the same party that the district leans towards.  I question whether hd37 had any trend at all, since Kerry's overperformance here was 1.76%, Obama's in 2012 was 1.79%, and this is another place where my precinct estimate was more iffy.

    In the case of sd15 and its two house districts, hd29 and hd30, I thought my assignment of precincts for 04/08 might have been too generous to Democrats, but I'm guessing they weren't, as now including 2012 numbers Obama did very well here, making each of the districts gain a point in PVI.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 01:32:08 PM PST

  •  VA-Gov: Bolling indicates 50/50 chance of running (7+ / 0-)

    as an Independent Republican: http://bluevirginia.us/...

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 02:00:41 PM PST

  •  TX-Gov: Opportunity? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    I'd just like to point out that Bill White did better in 2010 than Barack Obama did in 2012.  Rick Perry has always been a weak candidate and he is likely to be even weaker after his embarrassing Presidential primary and his potentially bruising Gubernatorial primary on the Republican side.  

    Still, there's a very small chance that Democrats would actually win.  But Perry is unpopular and we should try to capitalize on that somehow.

  •  IRV and VT (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, OGGoldy, bumiputera

    When it comes to partisan elections, instant runoff voting has a stronger potential place in party primaries than general elections. I'd hope for some progress to implement IRV in those primaries.

    Also, IRV could be very useful in non-partisan municipal elections in places where they only hold one-round of voting. But there might be some technological problems.

    NYC had a form of IRV in the 1930s and 1940s. Can you imagine the NYC-BOE trying to count IRV ballots?

    and in Vermont, Republicans recommend University of Vermont senior projects analyst/party activist Warren VanWyck and organic vegetable farmer Mary Ann Castimore to replace Republican Greg Clark, who died in a car accident in November. Governor Shumlin will pick someone to fill the seat in a few days.

    Vermont, where their Republicans recommend organic farmers for the state legislature.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 02:05:52 PM PST

  •  GOP pushing forward Indianapolis power grab (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, aamail6, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    and it looks like the Mayor was in on it. Eliminates the at-large City-County Council seats, all of which are Democrat held. Switches the Council from 16-13 Dem to 13-12 GOP, which could grow to 15-10 after their lame duck gerrymander of 2011.

    http://blogs.wishtv.com/...

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 02:08:05 PM PST

  •  WI-Sen is biggest 2016 target for Dems (7+ / 0-)

    I had IL-Sen as the biggest 2016 target for Dems, however, Ron Johnson has made a complete ass of himself over and over again to the point that Johnson is a bigger Dem target than Kirk despite IL being a bluer state than WI.

    Any Democrat who runs even a decent campaign will defeat Ron Johnson. He is an absolute chauvinist.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 02:13:53 PM PST

    •  Agreed (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson, MichaelNY

      Though Kirk is probably in a stronger position because of his story of overcoming a stroke, the political machinery in the state is probably just too strong for Dems to let him get another term. This isn't true of Wisconsin, but Johnson is a pretty offensive individual. Wonder who gets the nod? Kind, if he doesn't run for governor? Mark Pocan? That would be pretty cool, actually--he's followed Tammy Baldwin every step of his career, why not again?

      Last time I checked, both Kirk and Johnson (and Portman and Toomey) are even between disapproval and approval at around 33%. Could get back to 60 in 2016 depending on how 2014 goes--I also think McCain should be gettable.

    •  Disagree (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      gabjoh, JGibson, MichaelNY

      There are multiple targets bigger than Wisconsin. You even mentioned one: Illinois. Johnson may be a huge jackass, but that isn't something that voters often care about.

      Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are the other seats that I view as much bettet bets than Wisconsin. But that isn't to say I don't think Wisconsin starts out as a good opportunity, because it is.

      Ohio and Florida are other opportunities that start out as appealing.

      Iowa, North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia are intriguing targets in that order depending on the circumstances of the seats. If Grassley retires, who the Democratic candidate is against Burr, if McCain retires and who the candidates are, and if Georgia is targeted by a Presidential campaign on the back of the growth of the African American population.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 03:04:14 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  New Hampshire? (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, James Allen, MichaelNY

        Ayotte is more mainstream, more telegenic, and much less of an asshole than Johnson, and NH is less generically blue than WI. The only way she'll do worse than he does is if she has to run against Lynch, and Johnson's opponent implodes. For that matter, Toomey is in better shape than Johnson on all four counts. I think Johnson is in the second most trouble after Kirk.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 03:34:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  NH's electorate is MUCH more elastic than WI's (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Unless one of the two major-party candidates has serious issues and/or a third-party candidate takes a significant number votes away from one or both major-party candidates, 45% would be a floor for both the D candidate and R candidate in a statewide race in Wisconsin, but, in New Hampshire, the floor is closer to 30% for both major parties in statewide races there.

          Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

          by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 04:39:34 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  New Hampshire? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen, MichaelNY

        Kelly Ayotte got 60% of the vote in 2010, and is probably much closer to her state's median voter.

      •  For me Illinois would be the easier goal (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        with Toomey and Johnson in a tie in the second and third places.

        I think New Hampshire is also winnable, and Iowa maybe.

        Of course with the right Democratic candidate, with the strongest.

        •  really any state with a D+PVI (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          abgin, DownstateDemocrat

          is a state the dems should target. Doesn't necessarily mean winning but it should be targeted

          NH - Porter is a loose cannon of sorts, Kuster might be good but could be too liberal. If Hassan is popular she might be a good candidate

          WI - Kind may be a future Ways and Means chairman. Not sure if he'd give it up. Moore is too much of a loose cannon. Not sure if Pocan wants to run. A high ranking dem in the state legislature might be good

          IL - Enyart and Foster are probably too old. Lipinski might be good if he doesn't have any skeletons. Otherwise, Madigan should run assuming she stays as AG

          PA - Doyle will be 63 and will have accumulated a lot of seniority. Fattah is too liberal and is also a future chairman. Schwartz and Brady are too old. I would think Cartwright might be a good candidate

          RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

          by demographicarmageddon on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 07:06:37 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Regarding NH, WI, IL, and PA (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            NH - Ayotte, despite being quite conservative, is quite popular in New Hampshire, and may be tough to beat. If Ayotte's approval ratings drop noticeably before 2016, Shea-Porter, Kuster, Hassan, or a high-ranking Dem state legislator could emerge as a credible challenger.

            WI - Johnson is quite unpopular in Wisconsin, although he doesn't appear to be unpopular enough within his own party to be vulnerable to a credible primary challenge. Feingold still has quite a bit of popularity despite having been defeated in 2010 by Johnson, and has hinted at a possible rematch. If Feingold doesn't run, expect a powerful Dem state legislator, such as Barca, Larson, etc. to run against Johnson, as all three of Wisconsin's Dem House members appear to be interested in building a constituent service reputation and/or climbing the House leadership ladder, and one of them, Kind, has hinted at a possible Gubernatorial run.

            IL - Kirk has medical issues (although he's recovered enough to be able to return to work) and may not seek a second full term. Any other IL Repub who is electable statewide would be more interested in a Gubernatorial run than a Senate run. Lipinski is too conservative to win a statewide Dem primary, so either Duckworth or Bustos would be the most likely to mount a Senate run. L. Madigan is considering a possible Gubernatorial run at this time. Bustos would be more likely to run for Durbin's Senate seat upon his retirement than to run for Senate in 2016, though.

            PA - Cartwright and Kane would be our two strongest candidates against Toomey. The PA GOP brand isn't all that strong despite having a gerrymandering advantage.

            Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

            by DownstateDemocrat on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 08:34:25 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  I think you're very mistaken on New Hampshire (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, MichaelNY, James Allen

        I like our odds in Wisconsin a lot better than New Hampshire.

        Illinois is at the top of the list, yes, because it's such a blue state and it will be a Presidential year.  Pennsylvania is next for the same reasons, but it's obviously much less blue than Illinois.

        But Wisconsin is still a small bit stronger for us than New Hampshire in Presidential turnout, and Johnson looks more vulnerable than Ayotte at this stage.  She's done a better job of acquitting herself than Johnson who is more on the fringe.

        I have little hope for Ohio because Portman is the "right" fit for a Republican in that state.

        Florida depends on what Rubio does, he's actually made himself pretty popular with the general electorate there so far.  I don't know what Florida law says about running for President and reelection at the same time, that can complicate things either way.  If it's allowed, he can drop out of the Presidential if he's not going to be the nominee and still run for reelection in what is usually a late primary there, but there's the potential to damage his image in the state from being absent a ton for a failed Presidential run...this has hurt people before, like Chris Dodd and even Michelle Bachmann.  If it's not allowed, then whether he still can do the same as above depends on filing deadlines and the like.  His Presidential ambition makes the Senate seat a real wildcard.  Of course if there's a LBJ law and he's the Presidential nominee but he wins, then it's whatever Florida law says to fill the vacancy and I have no idea what that says.  And if there's a LBJ law and he loses, he stays a Senator, he won't be hurt by voters on the Senate line on the ballot.

        I agree about the intrigue of those lower-down opportunities.

        The 2016 map is going to be good for us, the GOP is badly overextended after good years in 2004 and 2010.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 08:53:45 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Sadly I think presidential straight ticket voting (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          will save otherwise unpopular senators like Rand Paul and Roy Blunt as well as largely meh ones like Richard Burr and Portman (and Coats) who aren't particularly well known/offensive to the electorate.

          At this stage I only see us picking up Illinois, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in that order of likelihood, though if Grassley retires that one should fall too though it would be a dogfight with Braley vs Latham.  If McCain retires then someone like Carmona could make it competitive and maybe even win if our presidential candidate invests in the state, but like Iowa that state is safe with the incumbent.  Ayotte's seat is possible and probably starts at Lean R or so, making it our 4th best pick up, but she defies gravity in that state like her predecessor Judd Gregg, someone who is very clearly a party line conservative but for no logical reason is popular among the state's very elastic electorate.

          As you said with Rubio, it really does depend on how his presidential bid plays out, but if he ends up running for reelection we aren't going to win that one barring a continued and drastic shift towards Democrats among Cubans and I really can't see them voting against Rubio en masse...

          On the bright side though, the cycle will be entirely offense.  The only remotely competitive race we should have looks to be Nevada, but not really as Cortez Masto could easily hold it for us when Reid retires.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:08:48 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'd give them more credit for that (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Chachy, sawolf, MichaelNY

            Blunt wouldn't lose in non-Presidential turnout, either.  Same goes for Portman IMO.  These people are not unpopular.  Same goes for a few others.

            Rand Paul is going to be an intriguing opportunity.  He's a kook who ran in a great year for his party in the general and for kooks in GOP primaries.  But he's still a kook and acting like one.  So he will have vulnerabilities.

            Meanwhile, he talks of running for President in 2016, picking up his dad's torch.

            If he does that, he's going to be gone from Kentucky a lot, and he might miss a lot of floor votes.

            This has hurt many federal elected officials.  Bob Dornan lost his U.S. House seat to Loretta Sanchez in 1996 because Dornan was out running quixotically for President.  Chris Dodd became DOA in 2010 for the same reason, and was smart enough to retire.  And Michele Bachmann almost lost this last time for the same reason.

            That seat in 2016 will be a great opportunity in a state that has a surprisingly strong Democratic bench.  Not everyone can be Governor, one of those people is going to eye that Senate seat.

            All the above said, I do think we'll have real potential to pick up a half-dozen seats on net.  It likely takes a wave, but the demographic shift might be moving toward creating a quasi-wave in Presidentials in the near future...one can argue that's exactly what happened in 2012.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:21:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Ah I see Blunt's approvals have recovered some (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              and he's basically now in Richard Burr territory.

              As for Paul I do agree that it will be very interesting, but keep in mind that absolutely zero scandal free incumbents have lost a senate race while their party's presidential nominee carried the state with a majority since 1992 and if anything that "law" is becoming more rigid.

              While I think Paul would have definitely lost had it not been 2010 (and Conway not had to resort to the aqua Buddha hail mary), his approvals aren't quite as bad as you're implying.  PPP found him at 43/39 in their poll last month and you don't lose with those numbers if you're an incumbent Kentucky Republican.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

              by sawolf on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:44:22 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I don't care what Paul's approvals are (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                He's a loon who over nearly 6 years in the Senate will have plenty of crazy rhetoric and crazy votes to exploit.  Not all that stuff would necessarily have gotten widespread play in local media across the state, and TV ads can make up for it when campaigns are gearing up.  That's what I'm looking at regarding Paul's vulnerability, not today's job approvals (which as-is are not very strong for a Republican incumbent in a conservative state).

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 06:09:47 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

          •  Reid is running again (0+ / 0-)

            and as for Burr I think after WI, IL, PA that's the other seat Dems should aim for because the NC GOP will be toxic with there 4 years of complete in charge in Raleigh by then. Someone like Cowell will probably make the leap, while predicting Coop runs for Gov.

            Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

            by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:32:30 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I guarantee you Reid will not run again (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              In fact, if we're both commenting frequently here in 2-3 years then you can track me down and I'll eat crow, but Reid is smart enough to hang it up when it'll be easy to replace him and he would be 77 by the start of the next term.  He's still unpopular in Nevada and only won because he nuked his wacko opponent in 2010.  Republicans would have crushed him had they run Dean Heller or even Brian Krolicki.

              Also state Republicans' unpopularity so far has not and almost certainly won't rub off onto Burr, coattails run the other way.  Burr is essentially generic federal Republican and when you add that to his incumbency and a probably victory by the Republican 2016 nominee unless we win by a 2008 margin, I don't see how Burr could possibly lose.

              As for Cooper he's too cautious to take on McCrory and will wait until the seat is open in 2020 unless McCrory is ridiculously unpopular, that goes double for Cowell who really only has one shot if she tries to move up too soon.

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

              by sawolf on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:50:13 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Why you got to be so pessimistic about your state (0+ / 0-)

                You kinda disappointing me, I say it in a joking matter but still. Do people even kno who Richard Burr is in North Carolina? I won't be surprise if some wingnut like Renee Elmer decides to get brave and primary him. The guy is so bland. Unfortunately you and disagree on your state because I don't think McCrory or Burr are untouchable like you do. I remember when he was polling in the 30's v 30's againt Coop and the former treasurer of the state, and he eventually got Elaine Marshall who wasn't a stellar nominee, and most of all got save by being on the right side of that wave in 2010. He won't be so lucky this because he'll have a real race on his hand

                Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

                by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 10:03:27 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  As of right now Reid running again (0+ / 0-)

                but alot can change 2-3 years time

                http://atr.rollcall.com/...

                Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

                by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 10:06:07 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Of course that's what he would say now (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, MichaelNY

                  There's no reason to announce you're retiring years in advance when you're majority leader.  This isn't to say I think we're destined to lose the majority by any means over the next 4 years, but it's just that you make yourself a lame duck and don't get to use your clout by making threats of future action if everyone knows you can't follow through.

                  This is why you see obvious shenanigans like Jan Brewer acting like she can run again, or Christine Gregoire playing coy until the legislative session was over.  More generally it's why you don't see senators announce their retirement until the year or at most two before their term ends.  Only in very rare exceptions like with Orrin Hatch promising to retire in 2018 do you see senators openly state what they're going to do and with him it seems very obvious that was part of a ploy to fend off a primary challenge.

                  NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                  by sawolf on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 10:32:36 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Daniel Inouye (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, sawolf

                  Was publicly running for reelection in 2016(!!) and look what happened. Not that I think Reid will drop any time soon.

                  24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

                  by HoosierD42 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 01:32:24 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

          •  who's to say we won't win NC next time? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

            by James Allen on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 07:31:00 AM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Re: The Debt Ceiling Vote. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MBishop1, David Nir, MichaelNY

    As far as I can tell, something like 55 of the 111 Democratic "Nays" came from the House Progressive Caucus, with only the following Progesssive Caucus members voting "Aye":

    Ann McLane Kuster
    David Cicilline
    David Loebsack
    Ed Markey
    Ed Pastor
    Janice Hahn
    Jared Polis
    Jim Moran
    John Lewis
    John Tierney
    Mark Takano
    Peter DeFazio
    Rick Nolan
    This is not counting liberal/leadership non-CPC members voting against the bill, like Nancy Pelosi, Jackie Speier, Hank Johnson, Nita Lowey, Tim Ryan, Frederica Wilson, Chris Van Hollen, Diana DeGette, John Yarmuth, etc.

    Meanwhile, of the 14 Blue Dogs, 11 voted for the bill, with just Thompson, Barrow, and Sanchez opposing it.  

    Of the New Democrats, I think about 31 supported the bill, to 17 opposed:

    Adam Schiff (CA-28)
    Adam Smith (WA-09)
    Allyson Schwartz (PA-13), Vice-Chair
    Cedric Richmond (LA-02)
    Colleen Hanabusa (HI-01)
    Ed Perlmutter (CO-07)
    Eliot Engel (NY-17)
    Gary Peters (MI-09)
    Gregory Meeks (NY-06)
    Jim Moran (VA-08)
    Joe Garcia (FL-26)
    John Barrow (GA-12)
    Juan Vargas (CA-51)
    Loretta Sanchez (CA-47)
    Rick Larsen (WA-02), Vice-Chair
    Rush Holt (NJ-12)
    Susan Davis (CA-53)
    (And some of those are pretty liberal to be in the CPC.)

    There's some double-counting thanks to people with a foot in each caucus, but anyway, I think on the Democratic side it was basically an ideological split.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-10 (formerly PA-02/NY-12, then PA-02/NY-14).

    by Xenocrypt on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 02:24:15 PM PST

  •  Yeah, I dont think there is any consistent trend (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MBishop1, MichaelNY

    on the debt ceiling vote. The WH and Senate Dems supported this bill, while Pelosi apparently said in private she opposed it, but House Dem leadership didnt whip a "no" vote.

    I imagine when the press releases go out, you will get a variety of reasons for a yes/no vote from Dems and the GOP.

    It does provide more evidence that the Hastert Rule is done, at least for this Congress.

    •  Re the Hastert Rule, not necessarily. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701, LordMike, MichaelNY

      It required the majority of the majority which was achieved with this vote.  It didn't require all 218 votes coming solely from the majority party.  I thought the same thing as you before I looked it up earlier this morning.

      One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

      by AUBoy2007 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 02:46:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  huh, you are right. I wonder how many (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        people know this, especially political pundits.

        I always thought "majority of the majority" was an odd term for trying to get 218 votes.

        If you are House Speaker though, I can see the logic of trying to get 218 votes from your own party for a key bill, since that is the number you need overall to keep your job.

        •  Yeah, but I think the thinking is that as long (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          as you keep the majority of your caucus happy, no coup attempts will be successful.  Either way, it's been violated twice already this Congress, and I can easily see it being violated again.  And even though they haven't technically broken the rule with this particular vote, the fact that they need Democrats to pass things is great news for us.

          It'll be extremely interesting to watch vote breakdowns over the next two years.

          One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

          by AUBoy2007 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 03:19:49 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  and in state-level news you missed (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MBishop1, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    Anchorage, AK Democratic state rep Lindsey Holmes switched to the Republicans last week. Her district (which is around the Ted Stevens Airport) went for Obama over Romney. She's member #30 in the Republican-led majority (which includes 25 Republicans and 5 Democrats). The Democratic-led minority of 10 Democrats is still around too. Alaska!

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 02:36:02 PM PST

    •  There will be new districts for the next election (0+ / 0-)

      so maybe she won't stick around. She is in Senate District J, where the GOP nearly knocked off Sen. Hollis French (D-Anchorage). The State Supreme Court threw out the 2012 map because of gerrymandering, but let it be used in 2012 since they said it was too close to the primaries to draw interim districts. The maps seemed to have done their job, especially in the Senate, and in particular around Fairbanks.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 04:18:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  why does that coalition even exist? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 06:19:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Pronunciation Guide to the 112th Congress (0+ / 0-)

    I've gone through all 532 members and transcribed their names into both a phonetic and IPA transcription and put it into a gdocs spreadsheet here

    These are exclusively from listening to either a campaign ad where they said "I'm blank and I approve this message" or an uploaded video where they state their own name in a clear fashion.  I tried my best to transcribe their own accent.

    So far I'm still missing these 13 names and if you either know 100% for sure or can find a video or audio recording, please let me know and I'll update the sheet accordingly:

    SC-06: James/Jim Clyburn
    NY-27: Chris Collins (KAH-linz/lunz
    NY-16: Eliot Engel (ELL-ee-it/et/ut EEN/AIN-gul)
    TX-05: Jeb Hensarling (HEN-ser/zer-ling)
    NY-26: Brian Higgins (BRY-in/en/un HIG-ginz/gunz)
    NC-03: Walter Jones (WALL-ter/tuh)
    NY-12: Carolyn Maloney (CARE-uh/oh-lin/luhn)
    TX-24: Kenny Marchant (chant/shant and int/ent/unt)
    MD-Sen: Barbara Mikulski (BAR-bruh/BAR-buh-ruh and mi/muh-KULL/KOOL-ski)
    NJ-10: Don(ald) Payne Jr. (DON or DON-uhld)
    NC-04: David Price (DAY-vid/vuhd)
    WI-05: Jim Sensenbrenner (SEN-sen/sun-bren/brun-ner)
    NY-15: Jose Serrano (suh/ser-RAH-no)
    TX-33: Marc Veasy (VEE/VAY-see/zee)

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 03:00:52 PM PST

  •  LOLGOP on redistricting (11+ / 0-)
    LOLGOP @LOLGOP  18m  
    I'm going to start referring the the GOP's attempt to redistrict away the opinion of non-white voters to the new The New 3/5 Compromise.
  •  NY-11 Now he's thinking of running... (8+ / 0-)

    sheesh, I guess he's still our best candidate, but Mike McMahon really should have run last year and would have won.

    http://atr.rollcall.com/...

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 03:12:28 PM PST

  •  CA: Neel Kashkari, the guy who ran TARP, is (5+ / 0-)

    considering a run for office in CA as a Republican. The speculation would be a run for governor, since there is no Senate race in 2014.

    As Kevin Roose of NY Magazine said on twitter, this is the guy who LITERALLY bailed out the banks. Then again the GOP bench in CA is very thin.

    I noted before, that while one budget surplus doesnt solve CA's budget problems, if it does materialize next year, that's a huge boost for Jerry Brown, especially considering what he inherited. It does seem to neutralize a potential big advantage for the GOP.

    •  Probably more plausible (6+ / 0-)

      for him to run for one of the lower-profile statewide offices. Occasionally a Republican gets into one of those, like Poizner back in 2006 became Insurance Commissioner. Running for public office in California without any prior statewide office or being known is a fool's errand. Just ask Elizabeth Emken.

      It's a separate question to ask if he could win. The answer is very likely no. Republicans couldn't win a single statewide race in 2010, only won two in 2006 (Poizner and Ahnuld). And in 2002, they actually had a decent shot at winning the governorship, only they got ratfucked by Gray Davis. This trend is not going in the right direction for them. And then there's the additional baggage Kashkari brings to the table...

      •  He will get blown out of the water... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, MichaelNY, bumiputera

        ...against any Democrat.

        He couldn't be a worse choice.

        I'm pro-bailout, it was necessary to prevent a depression, but most voters feel a bad taste in their mouths over it and will not vote for someone like this!

        And that would be true in many states, let alone a Republican in California!

        Jerry Brown is a lock for reelection if he wants it, and any other Democrat is not far behind in his/her chances if Brown retires.  But somehow I'm betting Brown runs......why shouldn't he?  He obviously loves this life, he started from ground up a second time in the 90s to get back in the game.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:00:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  VA Redistrict - Great column by Ta-Neshi Coates (6+ / 0-)

    This is something I thought of after reading of the Virginia Republican scheme to redistribute the state's electoral votes - there's something deeply disenfranchising about it. Coates says it better that I can.

    http://www.theatlantic.com/...

  •  Atlantic story on Lautenberg (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, askew, MichaelNY

    http://www.theatlantic.com/...

    I have respect for the great Senator from New Jersey, but he needs to hang it up. He needs to except reality. I respect him, but with his antics as of lately, the more and more I side with Booker. That was a cheap shot and uncall for what he said bout Booker the other day.

    Please retire Senator!

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

    by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 03:52:22 PM PST

  •  So Virginia was to the right of the tipping point (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    state the last two elections. Which means that, if it were to be so again in 2016, the Republicans' plan would actually help the Democrat. (E.g., imagine that Obama lost Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and, say, Iowa. The 4 EVs he still would have gotten from Virginia would have pushed him over the top.)

    Unless Republicans in Pennsylvania and/or Michigan pass similar plans. Then the Democrats would have to win Virginia - and all of it's 13 EVs - to get over 270.

    My question is: do Republicans in Virginia understand this, and they're counting on similar bills passing in those other states? Or are they just dumb?

    •  It doesn't matter that it's to the right (0+ / 0-)

      of the tipping point state, what matters is that it's to the left of the national average.  So on average this plan would be expected to help them more than hurt in a 50/50 election.

      I do agree though that it's close enough that it doesn't make much sense, unless there's coordination with other states to lock in 270+ electoral votes in all situations save for a large Democratic win.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 04:39:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Why does that matter? (0+ / 0-)

        Getting 270 EVs is what counts. If we subtract states Obama won starting with his narrowest win, then as it turns out Colorado or Pennsylvania is the tipping point, and re-allocating VA's EVs along the lines of the Republican plan would have added to Obama's EV total (though, as it happens, not enough to allow him to win; that could only have happened if Iowa or New Hampshire or Nevada were the tipping point state instead).

        Of course, there's no guarantee the electoral map will be the same in 2016, and we agree on the main point: it seems at least strange they're so eager to pass a plan that would actually have hurt them were it on the books for the most recent election.

        Which, again, allows for two possibilities: a) they are very confident of similar plans passing in PA, WI and/or MI, or b) they are dumb.

        •  I don't see how (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          You can say it would have "actually" hurt them in 2012. Had nothing else changed, Romney would have gotten 9 EVs he otherwise wouldn't have.

          If you start talking about multiple things changing, then it becomes effectively impossible to analyze for the reason you say: Who knows what the next election will look like.

          Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

          by David Nir on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 05:10:00 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  It seems obvious to me (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike, David Nir

            that EV distribution only matters to the extent that it determines who wins the election, and cutting Obama down from 332 to 323 EVs obviously wouldn't have mattered. It also seems obvious to me that, all things being equal, guaranteeing EVs to the Democratic candidate from a state that is to the right of the tipping point is helpful to the Democrats.

            But other people don't seem to share these intuitions, so I'll just stick to the more restrained point: it seems far from certain that this plan for Virginia will help the Republicans, and stands a chance of backfiring on them - unless they pass similar bills in at least one of PA, MI, or WI. So why are they rushing to pass it? Is it because they're quite sure that similar bills will pass in those other states? Or is it because they haven't really thought it out?

            •  They have little time... (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              David Nir, DCCyclone, Chachy

              They only meet for a total of 6 weeks before the election, and Cooch looks to be in big trouble.  If they want any chance at this crazy stuff, they most likely have to do it now.

              GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

              by LordMike on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 06:04:01 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Smart point on 6 weeks, but very wrong to think... (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                KingofSpades, LordMike

                ...Cooch is in "big trouble."

                I've said this before recently, and I'll say it again:  some people here are waaaaaay overconfident, from what I can see because of underestimating McAuliffe's own vulnerabilities.  He has the advantage for now of not making bad news for himself simply because he's a private citizen not occupying any public office, but that "advantage" is erased by TV ads.  And Cuccinelli is a smarter campaigner than people here realize, he won reelection to state Senate from a very tough district for Republicans in Fairfax County in a Democratic wave year (2005), then ran a good if low-profile campaign to ride McDonnell's coattails to a blowout win in 2009.  

                The Virginia GOP establishment is not looking at Cooch as a likely loser.  They're very nervous, yes, but it's a tossup race.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:05:22 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I don't think it's a lock, either... (0+ / 0-)

                  'Cos McAuliffe is so lousy, but actions speak louder than words.  The VA GOP is acting like they are about to lose their monopoly on power in a few months.  They at least feel that it's likely enough that they have to do all the crazy shit now, in an election year.

                  GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                  by LordMike on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:26:13 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

            •  The issue isn't whether it would have been (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              sawolf, LordMike, MichaelNY

              Outcome-determinative, though, as you yourself acknowledge. I mean, by that logic, even if New York passed a law automatically granting all its EVs to the Republican candidate regardless of outcome, it "wouldn't have mattered"—if New York had acted alone.

              But as earlier reporting on this issue has indicated, the GOP is eager to move this kind of legislation in exactly the states you identify. VA is much more "on the bubble," but it's all part of a coordinated plan. I mean, national Republicans aren't hiding that fact - this is all a big, multi-state scheme.

              As for VA itself, I'm pretty sure the GOP is looking at the fact that Dems won the last two presidential elections there and the demographics are particularly un-good for them in the state moving forward. They've also gerrymandered it well, with several narrow wins for Romney. If they re-tweak the map, they could also shore up an 8th seat as well (VA-02).

              Put another way: If you think you're going to lose Virginia in the future on a regular basis, this is a good deal for the GOP. And I think what LordMike says is also quite relevant.

              Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

              by David Nir on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 06:37:23 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  But that assumption is downright stupid... (4+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sawolf, KingofSpades, MichaelNY, askew

                ...of Republicans to make, that they're going to lose Virginia in the future on a regular basis.

                The state will remain purple in Presidentials for quite a few cycles before becoming genuinely blue.  I moved here in summer 2008 from across the river in D.C. and am spoiled by having Obama win twice since I've been a voter and activist here, but I am bracing for the reality that the state is likely to vote for a Republican at some point in the next 2-3 Presidentials.  Some people attribute too much of Obama's win to demographics and don't appreciate how much personal appeal he had with suburban white center-right swing voters who had never voted for a Democratic Presidential nominee.  Even as embattled as he seemed for much of the 2012 cycle, that appeal was still there in Virginia, as polling actually showed pretty consistently.  Those voters will easily vote Republican again given different matchups.......they will also just as easily vote Democratic again since their GOP habit is broken, but they can go either way.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:09:10 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Also you can't discount the impact of (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  the housing bubble in nova and how that brought tons of new people into the state and their voting paterns along with them.  That isn't likely to repeat itself hopefully forever (though I'm sure Republicans will do their best to deregulate the finance industry and balloon our trade deficit as much as possible when they hold the trifecta next).

                  Same goes for NC and is why I don't see either state trending blue and remotely the same pace as they did between 2004 and 2008.

                  NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                  by sawolf on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:18:08 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I think NC is going to continue trending blue. (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    For one thing, it's impressive that it continued to trend blue from 2008 to 2012, even though Obama pretty much had the state to himself in 2008, and Romney actually invested more there in 2012.

                    For another thing, the age breakdown in the NC exit poll is striking: people under 40 there voted basically the same as people under 40 in strongly blue states like Washington and Connecticut. (Florida was similar.) With every year that passes, voters from that cohort replace the elderly, who are of course the most conservative cohort in the state.

                •  Let's look at it another way (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  Let's say Republicans are that stupid. But then view it through the LordMike lens. They are at risk of not passing this even with GOP control of both chambers and with a very conservative governor. They had to go around Bolling, McDonnell is balking, and even the House is acting squirrely.

                  But maybe they'll get it through. After all, McDonnell's played this game before. But the fact that it's so difficult to pass this now means they may never have another shot again. Sure, Cuccinelli would sign on, but he may not win in November.

                  Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

                  by David Nir on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 06:21:23 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

              •  No, my point is that, (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                though it wouldn't have mattered what NY did with its EVs in 2012, if it had mattered - if Obama had won only narrowly - then proportional distribution would have hurt Democrats (obviously!) since it would guarantee EVs for the Republicans from a state that was obviously going to be to the left of the tipping point state. So it would have been just the mirror image of the VA plan, which - if it had mattered - would have been bad for Republicans.

                But the rest of your comment makes some good points. It would surprise me, however, if Republicans were really that fatalistic about Virginia, given that just last year Karl Rove was treating it as a "traditionally" Republican state that ought to have been relatively easy to win back to the R column, like NC and IN, in his 3-2-1 plan, and that Marist (?) pollster guy was saying Romney had it locked up a few weeks before the election. That is to say, I haven't seen much sign of republican acknowledgement of Virginia's voting trends to date.

  •  Ro Khanna vs. Mike Honda CA-17? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    This would be really stupid of Khanna to challenge Honda in
    CA-17, which is now the only Asian majority district on the mainland. Honda is well liked and well connected to labor unions and the Democratic party (he was vice chair of the DNC for a number of years). He is also totally inoffensive, unlike Stark who unnerved even a lot of democrats with his penchant for over the top comments. Any good will Khanna currently has would more or less evaporate by challenging Honda.

    Redistricting did the change the district to a degree. Honda now has more of the Silicon Valley area then he did before. Previously, it was always Anna Eshoo and Zoe Lofgren who served as the primary promoters of the Valley's and the major tech companies  interests on Capitol Hill. So perhaps Honda needs to be more active on technology issues than before. Although his committee assignments won't help him with that, as Eshoo and Lofgren serve on committees more relevant for Silicon Valley.

    I guess Khanna could run a campaign a la Reshma Saujani did in 2010 against Carolyn Maloney, where he'll claim to be a better advocate for Big Business in the district and claim his opponent ignores those interests in favor of lesser ones (i.e labor). Despite racking up a number of wealthy backers and raising a large amount of cash, Saujani got destroyed and the same thing would happen to Khanna.

    •  Why doesn't Khanna just go for CA-10 (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin, MichaelNY

      I know Denham beat a pretty strong opponent last cycle, but Khanna could presumably be much stronger and this is a district that has been getting bluer over time. Hernandez raised 1.7 million last cycle and lost by 7 points. If Khanna can beat that total and run a generally better campaign, he could have a chance and be a hero to a lot of California progressives.

      "Every daring attempt to make a great change in existing conditions, every lofty vision of new possibilities for the human race, has been labeled Utopian."

      by xcave on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 05:13:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  We need a good candidate (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, jncca

        in that district. But CA 10 is very different than Honda's current district in terms of demographics, sectors of employment and party affiliation. Denham's district is fairly rural and a Democrat to be successful there probably needs to be more affiliated with agriculture.

    •  Honda's previous district was in Silicon Valley (5+ / 0-)

      In fact, it might have included more of Silicon Valley than it does now. His previous district was a strip from Milpitas in the north through San Jose, Santa Clara, Cupertino (home of Apple), Campbell, and Los Gatos down to Gilroy. He got shifted north into Newark and Fremont, areas where Silicon Valley have begun encroaching into, and the southern half was chopped off.

      Honda used to be on the Science Committee until he got shunted into Appropriations. So he isn't entirely disconnected from the tech industry.

      If Khanna jumps in, he'll most likely run to the right of Honda (one of the most liberal House members). Honda used to be the chair of the congressional API caucus and is extremely well-connected with Asian-American organizations, so Khanna will get bashed to no end, especially in the Chinese-language press, a force in this Asian-majority district.

      Khanna can primary Swalwell, who's still getting his sea legs, but I'm not sure what issues they differ on to make that worthwhile.

      22, D, CA-12 (old CA-08).

      by kurykh on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 05:55:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Ro Khanna ran in the Lantos CA-12 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      district back in 2003 and got destroyed as the anti-war candidate. He is probably hesitant to primary someone so entrenched again but  I guess with the top two system it would be easier to get into the general.  You can't win if you don't enter so he will need to decide whether he will challenge someone.

  •  The lead Senate Republican sponsor of VAWA is (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MBishop1, LordMike, MichaelNY

    ... Mike Crapo (Idaho)? I wouldn't have guessed that in a million years.

    So far Pat Leahy and the Senate Democrats have lined up a number of Republican co-sponsors. In addition to Crapo, Senators Ayotte, Collins, Murkowski, and Kirk have signed on.

    Gwen Moore is the lead sponsor in the House. No republicans have signed on so far.

  •  Another thing about the GOP EV scam... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, WisJohn, SaoMagnifico

    What mandate would a GOP President have if they won the EV's barely, but lost the popular vote by near 5M (which I believe is what we'd have had this year if their plan now would have saw Romney win the EV vote, but not changed a single vote cast).  And then when you'd look at the demographic breakdown - how could you not have a epic match on Washington if not rioting in the streets with the old white party stealing the Presidency.  When Bush did it the first time, it was by the slimmest of margins - but 5M votes, that would not sit well or be accepted at all.  

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 05:16:37 PM PST

    •  It's even more subtle than that though (5+ / 0-)

      by packing the most partisan Democrats into as few votes as possible, the remaining voters Democrats have to target in those states just to win those few CD-based electoral votes are the relatively more conservative voters who are left.  This is one reason I believe the electoral college is inherently biased towards Republicans; if we had a national election Democrats would be able to get much more out of turning out minorities and young people in currently uncompetitive states than Republicans would from turning out additional older conservative whites in non-competitive states who already turn out at high rates.

      So even if Republicans won the electoral vote but Democrats won by say, 250,000 popular votes, just getting more votes than Republicans would have been a result of us targeting voters who are to the right of the national median.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 05:42:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  GW had no mandate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf

      yet did great damage. The power-hungry don't care about legitimacy. And no, it wasn't by the slimmest of margins. GW lost the popular vote by some 500,000 votes, not counting all the black voters who were denied the right to vote.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 11:57:50 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  something most of you should appreciate (8+ / 0-)

    WA state legislators are considering a way to get election results in quicker.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 06:23:51 PM PST

  •  State Senator Cecilia Tkaczyk officially sworn in. (8+ / 0-)

    http://www.fox23news.com/...
    Congratulations to her for causing a gerrymandered 63rd district to backfire on Republicans.  Also for not giving up.

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 06:32:07 PM PST

  •  i'm originally from IA-03 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, MichaelNY

    what candidates do you think would be a good to run against Latham? Here are some off the top of my head

    1. Polk County DA Sarcone
    2. Polk County Sheriff McCarthy
    3. Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 06:43:37 PM PST

    •  Tom Vilsack! ;) (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, James Allen, MichaelNY

      Last May PPP had him at 45/35.  If only our party was disciplined enough in going all out and I mean all out to win the house that we could convince people like Vilsack to run in IA-03 or Schweitzer to run for MT-AL.

      More realistically though I highly doubt Latham is beatable in that district, unfortunately.  He seems to have taken over Steve LaTourette's role with "LaTourette's syndrome."  Ideally Grassley retires in 2016, Braley, Latham, and King all run for his seat, King beats Latham in the primary and we pick up both the senate seat and IA-03.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 06:50:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I have T Vilsack as my hope vs C Grassley ) (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        He is defeating even T Branstad in the polls now )

        The highest profile politicians living in this district would be Chet Culver and the former Lieutenant Governor Sally Pederson (under T Vilsack).

        I think Sally Pederson would be a very strong candidate for IA-03 2014.

    •  Probably not Gronstal. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      He may put his own State Senate district at risk.  It's reasonably blue (Council Bluffs), but not enough to make it safe.  But then again, I know little about this.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 06:55:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  what do people think about Janet Petersen? (0+ / 0-)

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 08:45:00 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Who was that upstate NY Republican Senator (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    who was endorsed by Cuomo for some reason and lost narrowly because the Conservative Party ran a third party spoiler?

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 06:56:25 PM PST

  •  Freshman Congressmen (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, drhoosierdem, MichaelNY

    So I just finished watching last Saturday's roundtable on Up with Chris Hayes. It featured four freshman Democratic members of Congress: Rick Nolan (MN), Michelle Lujan Grisham (NM), Lois Frankel (FL), and Mark Pocan (WI). I was thoroughly impressed by all of them.

    If anyone wants an example of what it would be like to have Ed Schultz in Congress, I couldn't think of a better example than Nolan. He's a fiery liberal and I like his spunk (especially considering his age), but he also knows how to frame the argument just right. He brought a nice perspective considering that he served in Congress during the late 70s. Grisham seemed to be the quietest in an already chatty bunch, but she seemed to have very informed and measured responses. I could see her running for a statewide office sometime down the road if she wants it. Lois Frankel was articulate and had a very kind nature, though she was also a bit sassy at times (something I thought was a nice touch when used).

    However, the person I was most impressed with was Mark Pocan. I wanted him to win in the primary over Kelda Roys anyway, but I was impressed with how articulate he was throughout the hour-long roundtable. I know the sort of "rule" Wisconsin has about having one Madison Senator and one outstate Senator, but I really hope that Pocan is our candidate against Ron Johnson in 2016. I've become more unimpressed with Ron Kind as time has passed, and I think Pocan would be a more effective Senator (in terms of ideology) based on what I've seen thus far. I think we need a good candidate for Governor anyway, and I think Kind is our best candidate for that. Thus, I definitely hope that Kind is our Gubernatorial candidate in 2014 and that Pocan is our Senatorial candidate in 2016.

    The Pragmatic Progressive (IN-4); Economic Left/Right: -7.12; Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.44

    by AndySonSon on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 07:05:05 PM PST

  •  Reid is cutting a weak filibuster deal w McConnell (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Stephen Schmitz

    which is probably good news for the re-election chances of Pryor, Landrieu, Johnson, Begich, Hagan, Baucus.  

    Bad news is that it sounds like there is a "gang of x" that will wield centrist power - and McCain and Graham are the main negotiators in the Levin/McCain deal, so obviously they'll be front and center.  You knew McCain wasn't going to take his demotion from his plum Senate committee without finding something else he could puff himself into importance in.  

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 07:37:02 PM PST

    •  It has little influence on the reelection (5+ / 0-)

      chances of any Senator you listed. Louisiana voters don't vote on whether there is a "motion to proceed."

      Whether the motion to proceed goes or whether it stays is moot. Whether there are less executive motions held up or less filibusters to go to conference is moot.

      Why?

      1) Nobody's even talking about getting rid of the filibuster all together. Even the Udall-Merkely proposal would allow for filibusters on the "motion to invoke cloture" to end debate. So the filibuster is still there, and any Senator can use it whenever they want.

      2) It is a divided government and whatever passes the Senate has little chance of passing the House.

    •  My problem with it (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, LordMike, askew

      http://www.politico.com/...

      McConnell has sought to ensure Republicans get at least two amendments on bills during floor debates, sources say. And Reid appears poised to grant the request
      That should not be given up for so little. Why do we need to guarantee two pointless messaging amendments on every single bill put up for a vote?
      •  They won't be poison pills... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        They'll put on pieces that the Corporatist or Conservadems will want/go for.  No reform is better than what this deal is going to be.  It will pull bills to the center, and then when they have to be merged with the House bill, it will pull it even further to the right.  

        "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

        by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 08:49:06 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Real life example of EC rigging backfiring (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, MichaelNY, drhoosierdem

    Back in the Howard Dean days, Dean tried very hard to get North Carolina, Tennessee, and Colorado to split their EV's proportionately.  He got very close in North Carolina and in Colorado, but he backed out at the last second fearing retaliation by initiative in such places as California.  

    Can you imagine if we gave away electoral votes from CO to Romney?  Or losing EV's from North Carolina to McCain?

    So, this can definitely backfire on them.

    Here's my predictions.  We will get hosed in at least one state.  The biggest worry right now, besides VA is PA. Wisconsin may go for it, but only after Walker's re-election and after he loses the presidential primary in 2016.   The least worrisome states are Ohio, Florida, and Michigan.  Ohio has a Senate that really doesn't like to make waves, and Ohio has that pesky people's veto thingy.  Michigan has enough GOP members of the house in Obama districts to make it difficult, plus there are options for a popular vote on the issue.  Florida--they lost by only a few thousand votes last time.  Are they really going to give that up?  Also, there is the ability to initiate amendments to the constitution with a popular vote.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 07:49:58 PM PST

    •  Tennessee (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      That could have given Republicans incentive to dismantle Cooper's seat too.

    •  I don't think PA does it either. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY

      They desperately want to matter in Presidential politics - they were begging Romney to go to air and pay them a visit.  Also they were against the EV's per district allotment because they were afraid it would bring more Dem focus to their districts and cost them their own seats.  So they'd go the pop vote split, which means the state would be worth a net +2, which would put them under Idaho in terms of any campaign value.  

      I think Wisconsin is the most likest to do it.  Priebus is from there, Walker is a nut, and it's been proven he has a state legislature full of true believers to the Koch cause.  And they're safe blue Presidentially with no risk of a Repub making a serious play there any time soon.

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 08:03:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  WI is a worry... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        It will happen after 2014, though.  Walker doesn't want to endanger his re-election.  If he runs for pres (which I'm sure he will), then they won't do it until after he loses the pres primary (since he wants the state all for himself).

        I don't know about PA.  The PA GOP is terminally stupid 'cos they hire worthless pollsters, so they always think the state is in play.  If they still believe that, then the thing won't go anywhere.  Let's hope that the national bigwhigs don't convince them otherwise.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 08:55:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't know, I think at this stage (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, jj32, MichaelNY

          Walker is probably their best possible nominee of the realistic candidates they could nominate.  He's the only one of their blue state governors who is relatively popular in his state yet conservative enough to win the nomination.

          If I were a Republican I'd certainly vote for him over someone like Rubio, who will have had 6 years worth of senate votes to deal with and will have won his sole election in a light red state with 49% in the reddest year in generations.  Walker will have likely won three elections in a light blue state by greater than 5%, will have tons of conservative accomplishments to throw to the base, but no shit like voting for the Ryan plan type of crap that Democrats can scream about.

          That being said, if he doesn't think he can win the nomination I could see him pursuing it in the state, but that does rather put some of those Obama-08/Romney-12 seat incumbents in an awkward position.

          NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

          by sawolf on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:12:23 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'm not sure WI or PA won't be in play (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, MichaelNY

          for the Republicans. PA was practically the tipping point state this year, it's trended away from Ds for a few cycles in a row, and the demographics are not especially favorable for the Democrats. Meanwhile, though Obama has done well in Wisconsin, it was a toss-up state in 2000 and 2004, and why should we assume it won't go back to being that way.

          It's not hard for me to imagine a scenario like this playing out in 2020, or even 2016:

          http://www.270towin.com/...

          In which case messing with the EVs in PA and WI would totally backfire on the republicans.

  •  when it comes to the electoral college (0+ / 0-)

    if you win a majority of the popular vote, you should win the election, no matter what.

    And if nobody wins a majority, then have the electoral votes split proportionally by state. And if nobody wins a majority of those... um... figure out something else that can choose a winner in a logical fashion.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 08:47:46 PM PST

  •  Virginia and EV Splitting Generally (5+ / 0-)

    Is pretty much about patronage. The Republican party in DC, or at least its decision-making arm, is actually the network of lobbyists, consultants, and lawyers who draw money from proximity to power. They lost a lot when Romney lost, and are determined not to be locked out again. It has very little to do with ideology, but its ideological and political consequences will be catastrophic, though no one senior seems particularly interested in listening to me about it.

    Amusingly, with two other militantly anti-Virginia Coup "Republicans"(who really are probably more militantly anti-the party than most posters here at this point though they are circling Christie) I wrote a satirical version of the 18th Brumaire of Louis Napoleon positing a coup by a President Christie against a Cantor-Demint Congress a decade after there EV split schemes have produced a series of minority Presidents and National Right to Work. Not sure if there is any interest seeing it here or on the main page.

    The great irony is the party sent me to Venezuela to help get rid of Chavez, and I became convinced we are going to be in the same boat unless the GOP stops doing what its doing.

    •  Listening to you? So you have strong contacts? (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, MichaelNY, sacman701

      And yes, it is sore loserdom at its worst.  I don't see it passing in PA (Democrats gained three in the Senate and they couldn't do it when they had more going for them before 2012) or VA (Bolling or some other Republican will nix it, plus Virginia isn't a lost cause for the GOP, same with OH and FL).  But what is potentially concerning is WI and/or MI (though the latter may be more difficult since Dems gained in 2012 and Snyder is less of a soldier for the party).  I frankly think that if you have partisan redistricting and gerrymandered districts, there might be some constitutional problems with splitting by EV.  Maine has a very non-controversial map (rural and small town outstate and urban/suburban downstate) and so does Nebraska (Omaha-based district, Lincoln-based district, and everything else), so it's not as big a deal with them.  Also, they're much smaller.  But if they want to return to winner-take-all just to make a point, I'm all for it.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:13:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  It does dilute minority voting power (4+ / 0-)

        And that is sort of the point. But VRA litigation sort of runs upon a sort of agreed upon willingness to accept absurd assumptions at face value. Rather than presuming that the point of a trial is to determine whether something dillutes voting power, the assumption is both sides are allowed to argue over whose plan best "Helps" minorities who are granted very little legal agency.

        Virginia is different from Texas. In Texas, there were substantial number of Hisapnic members of the GOP caucuses, and because Hispanics did win GOP primaries, if one accepted a numeric basis for determining minority influence, there was a credible legal case that the prospects both for Hispanic legislators to reach positions of leadership and influence, and the raw number of them, would both be increased under GOP maps, since they would produce more GOP Hispanic reps, and only Republicans were likely to be in the leadership.

        In Virginia by contrast, the minority being dealt with is African Americans,  and there are no African members of the Republican Senate caucus, nor are there likely to be. The African American community is not hedging its bets, or using its participation in a lawsuit to extract a settlement(as many hispanic groups were in the Texas cases). The manner in which the map was passed, its timing, the treatment of Marsh, and the optically disastrous decision to hold the Stonewall Jackson memorial all will ensure that no black group even thinks of cutting a deal, and that pressure on Holder to deny pre-clearence is overwhelming.

        Or so it should be. If this was Bush, there would be no doubt for a second what the decision would be regarding pre-clearence. Partisan, personal, strategic and legal considerations all argue for it. But with the exception of parts of the Presidential campaign I have never understood the political calculus of this administration. While ruthless campaigning, it sometimes seems to meet with Disraeli's admonition that a Liberal is a man too broadsided to take his own side in a quarrel. Like this filibuster thing. As an ex-GOP Senator Staffer I can promise the fillibuster is gone the next time there is a GP trifecta, and I don't understand how a Pryor or a Landriu can feel to understand that after what just happened in Richmond.

        •  Most Contacts I Have (5+ / 0-)

          Were in the Bush class of 2008, aka the kids who came in when everyone else left for the campaigns expecting to handle Olympics prep, ended up dealing with a War in Georgia, Economic Collapse, the most serious overture to Iran in two decades, and writing the first drafts of the Stimulus and Auto Bailout.

          This had to be accomplished despite the best efforts of the party and its candidate to obstruct the administration's work. In the case of Georgia, the Administration's efforts were subject to slander, leaks to foreign governments, and active efforts to directly undermine US policy by urging foreign leaders to ignore or do the opposite of what the US urged them to, all from those who had the temerity to run under the platform of "Country First".

          Then came the Economic collapse which did not help matters, and the same suspects proved absolutely clueless, but equally determined to undermine policy whenever they could. Suffice to say, had there been a WH precinct in 2008, despite the views many have here of that Administration, I would have been shocked if McCain had won.

          •  Why was the lobbyist ring so distraught (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, LordMike

            by Romney's loss?  Surely they ought to have seen his odds dip in the last couple weeks and tried to provide a method of damage control for themselves.  But I guess I can see them pissed either way.  I remember reading stories about how Rove was getting angry calls from big donors to American Crossroads.

            Anyway, interesting insight you have here.

            I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

            by KingofSpades on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 11:00:59 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  People aren't very interested (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, KingofSpades

              The great weakness of American education which is felt in the US work culture is the complete lack of curiosity most people have about things not in front of them. Most people want to get work done, and then sit back and watch the game, deal with personal stuff etc.

              Most of the people in DC believed what they were told by the campaign and the conservative punditry because to go out and get their own information would have taken time, effort, and initiative they lacked.

              When I was asked at 1 PM what I thought was going to happen by a friend who was later to be in 250K donor suite in Boston what my prediction was, and I told him Obama by 3.2% and with everything he won but Florida, he was shocked.

              Of course he was more pissed when I told him at 7:45 PM eastern time that it was all over.

      •  constitutionality (3+ / 0-)
        I frankly think that if you have partisan redistricting and gerrymandered districts, there might be some constitutional problems with splitting by EV.
        I don't think the problem is whether or not it's constitutional, given that the constitution didn't even foresee the direct election of presidents. The problem is that, exploited in this way, the constitution would fail to serve as a popular foundation for the legitimacy of the government. Hence: constitutional crisis, in the truest sense.
        •  It prevents the normal functioning of Politics (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY, sacman701

          In a normal system a majority is never permanent, because minorities tempt discontented segments of a majority to come over and help them regain competitiveness.

          The problem is that the GOP is a minority, but it would rather cheat than make real rather than cosmetic concessions(better explaining conservatism). As a consequence it wants to lock itself into power.

          Such a system however will never last forever. What it does do however is that it produces a majority that is cohesive not in favor of something, but that is rather united by a feeling of disenfranchisement and distrusts the minority's integrity on such a visceral level that even if individuals become discontented with their own government they are loathe to trust the minority with power ever again.

          This is the problem in Venezuela. Just as in the United States, the Right manipulated the electoral system to remain in power for years, waging political, legal, and economic war against the majority. When they lost power, they promptly collapsed into irrelevance as party's that had depended on Gerrymandered districts and biased courts could not function with the law against them.

          This left an angry majority without effective opposition. Furthermore, even when Chavez began to alianate some of his supporters and they got cold feet about his tactics, and it became apparent that the government increasingly was controlled by crooks with links to Hezbollah, Drug Cartels, and Iran ruling through a senile and dying Chavez, those people were loathe to trust the Right.

          The result is that there is an Anti-Chavista majority, but not one for the opposition. When the government tries to put through constitutional amendments expanding Presidential power, Center-Left voters will join the Right to defeat them, and even in the Parliamentary elections they voted against the government candidates. But in the Presidential election they weren't willing to trust the Right, even if they agreed with everything the Right said about the government's problems.

    •  Hold it, you did what in Venezuela? n/t (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Chachy, KingofSpades, LordMike, bumiputera

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:06:29 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  2013 Australian Federal Election (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, SLDemocrat

    Julia Gillard has incumbent Northern Territory Labor senator Trish Crossin dumped from Labor's senate ticket in favor Nova Peris who was part of Australia's Woman Hockey team in the 1996 Summer Olympics.

    And as expected the Labor rank and file don't like and an aboriginal minister in the NT's Country Liberal Government  (CLP) slams it as a token move by the Labor party to shore up its aboriginal base which fled to the CLP in droves during last year's election in the NT.

    Also Crossin was a supporter of Kevin Rudd so that probably factories into Gillard's thinking as well.

    http://www.news.com.au/...

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Wed Jan 23, 2013 at 09:22:50 PM PST

  •  CO civil unions pass Senate committee (6+ / 0-)

    3-2, party-line vote.

    thinking CO may pass civil unions before RI and/or IL pass gay marriage.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 12:47:51 AM PST

  •  This is how you fight EV rigging... (0+ / 0-)

    Front page story at Politico:

    One Democrat close to the planning process said the group intended to bring in “top campaign talent to Texas” for a long-term organizing push. Strategists filed papers with the Texas Ethics Commission to create Battleground Texas earlier this month with that goal in mind.
    “It’s going to take a sustained effort and we’re going to have to prove ourselves over time,” the Democrat staid. “We need to have the talent in state to build something real over time and make the environment such that you can look someone in the eye and say, ‘You can run statewide and you can win,’ or you can tell a presidential candidate that you should really consider putting resources here.”

    Read more: http://www.politico.com/...

    Even if Texas decides to EV rig to fight such an effort, that still means a bunch of EV's free for us to balance out the other rigging potentially going on in other states.

    You have to fight fire with fire!

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Thu Jan 24, 2013 at 04:43:44 AM PST

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