Skip to main content

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  NY SD-46: Tkaczyk came back and won (5+ / 0-)

    as we all know by now.  I'm so glad she didn't quit after they certified it for Amedore.  Now, looking at a lot of the attack ads against her by Amedore and outside groups, they were heavily hitting her for taking a good chunk of money from NYC donors and organizations.  I guess they thought the usual upstate vs. downstate distrust would prevent her from winning a district the GOP drew for Assemblyman Amedore.

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 04:08:43 PM PST

    •  Some links (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Audrid, Andrew C White, Taget, MichaelNY

      2 ads that hit her on the NYC thing, one a shitty ad by a GOP outside group, the other by Amedore:
      https://www.youtube.com/...
      https://www.youtube.com/...
      Map of SD-46: http://www.latfor.state.ny.us/...

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 04:17:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I guess the GOP really screwed the pooch (6+ / 0-)

      when it came to redistricting this time around. The forgot to take account of the NOM primary challenges and apparently wasted the new seat they added to the senate.

      "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

      by lordpet8 on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 05:34:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  They gerrymandered to the best of their ability (12+ / 0-)

        fact is New York, upstate as well as downstate, is no longer Republican territory. Democrats out number Republicans across upstate and completely dominate them downstate. They did the best they could but it wasn't good enough. Probably would have been in a non-Presidential year but they are unlikely to get back the districts they lost. They've been holding on by inertia and the incompetence/corruption of Senate Democratic leadership alone. Inertia is lost and the new Senate Democratic leadership is neither corrupt nor incompetent.

        This is their last hurrah and they have it only because of Klein's ego.

        "Do what you can with what you have where you are." - Teddy Roosevelt

        by Andrew C White on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 06:16:05 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Did the lawsuit against the Senate map (5+ / 0-)

      ever go anywhere? If the federal courts follow the Georgia redistricting case from the 11th Circuit following the 2002 redistricting, the map would clearly be thrown out. Democrats pushed the suburban Atlanta seats to the maximum 5% deviation too large, while the Democratic areas were all about 5% too small. Basically what the GOP did in the Senate.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 06:29:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  David Nir said it was in progress (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, Taget, SouthernINDem, MichaelNY

        like the FL lawsuit against the Congressional map.

        I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

        by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 06:37:47 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  WI Redistricting is still on the table (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          DailyKos main-pager Puddytat mentioned that in this diary:

          Redistricting is still not off the table as the groups that sued over the severly (sic) gerrymandered maps are working to obtain another court order to examine computers that Republicans used in their secret, Republican-only, off-site, private rewrite of our legislative districts. During the last court order, they discovered multiple documents that should have been disclosed to them, but weren't. They hope to discover more evidence of wrongdoing that might enable correction to our districts by the courts.
          I don't see any scenario in which WI's congressional and/or state legislative maps are thrown out, however.

          Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

          by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 08:17:08 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Weekend Tune (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    General Goose

    "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

    by lordpet8 on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 05:15:25 PM PST

  •  MA-Gov (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, ArkDem14, BKGyptian89

    I don't know about you guys, but there is something I want to see more than anything; Brown versus Coakley II: Martha's Revenge.

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 05:44:34 PM PST

  •  SC-01 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    BeloitDem, MichaelNY

    Can't wait to see what fun Colbert will have with this on his show Monday (or Tuesday. I don't know if they do a show on MLK day) with his sister run for congress. And this will be a real pickup opportunity if the Republicans nominate Sanford. The best analogy I can think of for it is NY-09 after Weiner resigned. Despite being heavily Democratic, the Democrats nominated a lousy candidate and Bob Turner came and stole the show. Sanford would be their Dave Weprin. However, whether we could hold the seat in the general against a non-Sanford candidate is yet to be seen.

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 05:47:55 PM PST

    •  That's a bad analogy (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sacman701

      Because the district that Weiner held wasn't heavily Democratic, and had actually been trending against us for the previous few years. There's also the fact that it was a very very bad national atmosphere for Democrats at that time.

      In this case, the district actually is heavily Republican. And the district seems to be trending away from us slightly (it stayed flat at R+11 from 04/08 PVI to 08/12 PVI, but moved from R+10 to R+11 in yearly only terms from 08 to 12). And the national atmosphere is basically neutral with perhaps a small institutional advantage for Democrats on some issues - and even if you argue that we have the advantage right now (which is realistic I guess), our degree of advantage is nothing similar to how large an advantage Republicans had during the Weiner scandal.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 05:53:09 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Weiner's district was not THAT blue (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, gabjoh

      even though Brooklyn is heavily Democratic, we also have several neighborhoods that have Hasidic Jews, and they vote Republican. Most of those neighborhoods that are majority Hasidic are in the south parts of the borough, which Weiner's district housed. Remember that also was Schumer's district for 18 year before he beat D'Amato for the senate in 98.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

      by BKGyptian89 on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 09:04:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  MN HD-19A (0+ / 0-)

    I am curious who is going to get the endorsement tomorrow.

    •  Unfortunately (0+ / 0-)

      Southern Minnesota is really my weak spot in terms of knowledge and connections, so I have no idea who is the favorite, if anyone is the favorite. On the plus side, all 4 candidates promised to abide by the endorsement.

      •  Missed this (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY, gabjoh

        I missed this. I live-tweeted the convention. It was a lot of fun as it is the district I went to college in and organized in during the 2008 election. Clark Johnson, who got the endorsement, was one of my super-volunteers and a rockstar doorknocker. I expect he'll work his butt off.

        If you want to read my tweets, my twitter name is @erictnelson.

  •  As I mentioned in Thursday's live digest (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh

    I believe our best chance of taking the House this decade will involve passing independent redistricting commission initiatives in Florida, Michigan, and Ohio. In the course of writing a diary on the subject, I've been trying to find campaign expenditures on various ballot measures in those states in recent years and unlike with federal elections there doesn't appear to any very handy sources like opensecrets.org, at least after a quick google search.  So does anyone know where I can find aggregate expenditures for various ballot measures like Ohio's issue 2?

    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

    by sawolf on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 06:31:37 PM PST

  •  WHAS-11: Ashley Judd is getting serious about this (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, DownstateDemocrat

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 06:32:58 PM PST

    •  I'm warming to the idea of her (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Taget

      as a candidate, although I still think she'd be a disaster.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 06:58:24 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Also on WHAS-11- (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "that she will conduct exploratory activities in Kentucky next month."

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 08:07:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  In all honesty (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone, MichaelNY, The Dude 415

      I say forget about taking on McConnell on worrying about preserving as many seats as we can. We have to defend a bunch of seats in unfriendly territory. And I don't think McConnell is going to be primaried either. As much as a despise him, he's a smart and calculating man in hiring Rand Paul's team.

      Chambliss and Cornyn are much more likely to be primaried, and I think Chambliss is done. Handel hasn't made it official yet but she'll  takedown Chambliss. Cornyn can survive, but you never know.

      West Virginia as of right now Im hopeful on, but South Dakota, Ive always had a bad  feeling about for months now.

      North Carolina, and Arkansas with Hagan, and Pryor Im optimistic on. I think Landrieu wins in Louisiana, but I have to see some polling first before I can make anymore judgements about that race.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

      by BKGyptian89 on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 08:18:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  A continuing slow but steady economic recovery... (7+ / 0-)

        ...will keep the Senate in our hands.

        Obama calling the GOP's bluff on the debt ceiling is huge, that helps the economy and helps our morale politically, while depressing teabagger morale.  That's exactly what we want.

        And any spending deals going forward will include tax hikes in exchange for spending cuts, whether the GOP likes it or not.  The GOP House will force shutdown that will further erode their image.  And then they'll cave anyway.  But there will be some deficit reduction, and I expect some spending cuts that make us unhappy......I bet chained CPI ends up happening, it's a low-hanging fruit as entitlement benefit cuts are concerned since it has a politically-neutral intellectual argument behind it.  And some means-testing might happen.  Some tax loopholes will get closed, with net gain in tax revenue as part of the deal even if there's some kind of rate cut to partially offset the closing loopholes.

        All the above ensures that the government at least doesn't hamper the continuing slow recovery.  And that in turn disarms the GOP in the midterms, when they won't have much of an argument against the President or his party.

        The problem the GOP has is that whatever is accomplished legislatively necessarily happens with the GOP's consent since they control the House and can easily defeat cloture in the Senate.  This in turn makes the President hard to run against.  Meanwhile, the GOP House will continue to behave badly, making McConnell's and the NRSC's job that much harder.

        This doesn't mean we won't lose some people, but it means we should hold the Senate.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 09:02:44 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  It doesn't matter whether Cornyn is upset (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Zack from the SFV

        in Texas; Texans won't vote for a Democrat for Senate there. Remember, they just elected Cruz.

        Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

        by MichaelNY on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 02:21:57 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Polling showed Judd within 4 points of McConnell (0+ / 0-)

      ...if she thinks she can win a U.S. Senate seat in Kentucky, she should go for it.

      Judd has the green light from me.

      Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

      by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 07:49:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Do you think that margin will hold... (7+ / 0-)

        When she starts campaigning, and people learn that she opposes mountaintop removal, is pro-choice, is pro-gay marriage, and is pro-cap-and-trade -- oh, and that she has one home in Tennessee, one home in Scotland, and zero homes in the state she's seeking to represent in the Senate?

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 11:15:28 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  No (0+ / 0-)

          But she is still sure as hell better than nominating someone bad enough to hope McConnell wins.

          Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

          by R30A on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 12:41:56 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's like getting excited... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            R30A, Audrid, MichaelNY

            Because your house burned down and you lost all your stuff, but at least you vacuumed first.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 02:47:42 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I don't think anyone is getting (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              "excited" about Judd, at least on DKE, but I respect her the way I respected Chris Coons. If we have someone who can actually do better, then they should get off their ass and run. Until then, I think Judd deserves our respect.

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 08:57:00 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Part of the problem, if she runs, becomes this: (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                While Judd is clearly unelectable, even over someone like Rand Paul, her money makes her a prohibitive favorite over 3rd tier state legislators who would at least function as generic D (and by that I mean they'd do well in coal country).  Once you have the 1st tier list of candidates decline, and the 2nd tier too afraid to run because their career will be over, you're left with a 3rd tier that doesn't want to run because they won't raise any money to win the primary so what's the point?

                This brings me around to saying that I'd rather McConnell be unopposed (literally unopposed, nobody else on the ballot) than to have Judd as our nominee.  I'd hate to see us narrowly lose our House majority because Judd drags our candidates down.  There's basically no upside to her winning aside from the fact that she's not Alvin Greene and that really says something.  While she might be fine in Louisville and Lexington, she'd be a lead weight in crucial areas like unionized coal heavy eastern Kentucky and the western coal fields where we need to win basically every competitive seat and should do so by default.  I'd really like to see some research into coattails for senate/gov races in midterms, but it seems pretty reasonable that they do exist and for that reason Judd would be an unmitigated disaster once McConnell goes nuclear on her.

                NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                by sawolf on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 09:05:53 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yeah (0+ / 0-)

                  The thing about Coons is that he was clearly electable in an open-seat race, so that when Castle was teabagged, he was there to take the seat. Judd would lose big in an open-seat race, so she is not comparable. We need someone to run who would have a fighting chance of at least winning against a toxic Republican, in case something weird happens in the race, and even better, someone who would have a slight chance of an upset against the extremely wealthy McConnell.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 09:35:10 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  If a state senator wants to run (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY, sapelcovits

                  they should open their mouthes.

                  Better to run a high profile progressive than just concede the seat with a boring fourth tier candidate just looking to get known.

                  Things change by progressives convincing people progressive ideas are the best way to go forward.  If the voters disagree, fine.  But if none of the constantly talked about "strong bench" in the state don't run, a high profile progressive is just what the state needs.

                  Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                  by tommypaine on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 11:31:09 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  While I would normally agree (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    We're going to have McConnell go nuclear on Judd and liberalism when he wouldn't have any reason to do that unopposed.

                    Basically my preferences go like this:
                    1. Beshear
                    2. Conway/other popular statewides.
                    3. Luallen
                    4. Mongiardo/Abramson
                    5. Chandler/Random moderate or conservative state legislator/businessperson
                    6. Unopposed
                    7. Judd
                    8. Mark Clayton type

                    NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                    by sawolf on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 10:58:33 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  And how can you think that is bad???? (0+ / 0-)

                      That is why a Judd candidacy would be terrific!

                      We want McConnell to go nuclear on progressive ideas.  We want the Senate GOP leader to be supporting ideas that the majority of the country soundly rejects.  We want the GOP to define itself with policies that appeal to the right of center of Kentucky voters!

                      It's a huge, pure win for Dems for this nuclear approach to happen.

                      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

                      by tommypaine on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 12:36:42 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

    •  KY-SEN (5+ / 0-)

      What about Mongiardo? Jody Richards?  Elaine Walker?

      I understand Chandler, Conway, Luallen and Grimes all want Governor, but we have a huge bench in KY, someone has to want to take a shot no?

      31/D/M/NY-01/SSP: Tekzilla

      by Socks The Cat on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 08:53:35 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm pretty sure (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sawolf, MichaelNY

        Luallen will pass on the Gubernatorial race and endorse her friend/protege Jack Conway. I'm sure the DSCC has been trying to recruit her for a Senate run nonstop. I hope she runs, the Dems would have a winning Coal Country duo with her in KY and Natalie Tennant in WV.

        Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

        by betelgeux on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 06:19:50 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Here is what I think the NY Senate (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, sawolf, Taget, BeloitDem

    might look like if a commission drew it:
     photo LongIsland_zpse8b8772f.jpg
     photo NYSenateUpstate_zpsa32002ea.jpg

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 07:06:36 PM PST

  •  Regarding Judd living part time in Scotland... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Would that necessarily hurt her in Kentucky given Eastern Kentucky is considered part of Appalachia, which has deep Scotch-Irish roots.  

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 07:26:28 PM PST

  •  I might at some point (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    My only fault is that it gives Sen. Greg Ball (R-Patterson) a better district than he has now. It creates a new minority majority seat in Nassau County, an Asian majority seat in Queens, and I particularly like the new North Country seat (which Darrell Aubertine does not live in- it is 56-42 Obama, and Sen. Patty Ritchie (R-Oswegatchie) would have a difficult time here). Many of the upstate seats are winnable, including Sen. Kathleen Marchione (R-Halfmoon), who gets a 54-44 Obama seat.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 07:36:17 PM PST

  •  Your weekend music (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 07:36:40 PM PST

    •  That image for Between Two Mysteries is beautiful (0+ / 0-)

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 08:21:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  The songs are too (0+ / 0-)

        I was trying to give some more obscure and creative songs this week.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 01:05:46 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  How do you embed videos? (0+ / 0-)

      Student, Proud Progressive, Science Nerd, and Skeptic. Born and raised in CT-03. "Teach a man to reason, and he'll think for a lifetime."--Phil Plait

      by betelgeux on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 06:22:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  on youtube (0+ / 0-)

        you click on the share button, then the embed button, then simply copy and paste the code it gives you into the comment here.

        ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

        by James Allen on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 01:10:46 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Trivia about Vito Fossella's Great-Grandfather. (5+ / 0-)

    What many of you outside of Staten Island might know is Vito Fossella's family has deep roots in the Democratic Party.  Including his uncle who was a NYC Councilman and father who was on the executive committee of the County Democratic Party.  At least until they made a pact with the devil (aka Guy Molinari).

    I've been reading a great book I picked up about Staten Island politics called "Staten Island: Conservative Bastion In A Liberal City" by Richard Flanagan and the late Daniel Kramer.  Very interesting book with a lot of good information about not only local but city politics as well.

    http://www.amazon.com/...

    A small tidbit.

    Vito's Great-Grandfather, James O'Leary, won in 1934 as a Democrat for the US Congress representing Staten Island and lower Manhattan in 1934.  He was a strong supporter of the New Deal who in 1944 endorsed Franklin Delano Roosevelt calling him the "greatest statesman the world has ever produced."

    Like Joe Kennedy he was also a staunch isolationist.  To quote: "In 1941, he addressed a rally of the Staten Island America First Committee, a staunchly isolation group.  He missed the House vote declaring war against Germany and Italy."

    When he died in 1946 Buck Ellsworth who was regarded as a "conservative" Republican won his seat.  Keep in mind during most of the depression Republicans like Fiorella La Guardia in Staten Island and elswhere in New York were winning with a "Fusion" coalition that even included the far left-wing American Labor Party.

    He was militantly anti-Labor and opposed most of the New/Fair Deal.  But he also demonstrates how different a Republican then is compared to now.  He was a strong proactive supporter of Civil Rights who supported legislation to ban practices meant to discourage African-American participation such as the poll tax.  He also supported sex education in the public schools.  This is back in the 1940s.  How many liberal Democrats would take a public stand on this seventy years later?  And lest you think Buck Ellsworth is some kind of lefty he also opposed school lunches for the poor.

    The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

    by Taget on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 08:04:05 PM PST

  •  Just had a wow moment (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, jj32, Taget, MichaelNY

    Gillibrand won Hamilton County.

    I am sure someone will know this, but when was the last time a Democrat managed to do that?

    If she runs for President, her map won't be this good, but her political skills (and home base) are reflected in this showing, I think.

    Ok, so I read the polls.

    by andgarden on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 08:25:16 PM PST

  •  CA GOP woes >> MN GOP (0+ / 0-)

    While both state parties have the daunting task of rebuilding, and face similar fiscal problems. the MN GOP troubles pale in comparison to the the CA GOP.  

    For the MN GOP the demographics have not changed all that much, the party needs to get back on financial footing and work on recruiting the right candidates. This may take time even with a new chair, probably 4 years. Which means the party may still not be out of the hole in time to really face off in the 2014 elections. While the Dems have trifecta in the state their majorities are smaller than what they had in 2008.

    The CA GOP faces a steeper path to relevancy. Having no statewide electeds and less than 1/3 of the seats in the legislature, the party is without a face. Changing demographics are just more salt on the wound. Incoming party chair Jim Brulte is no stranger to politics as he led Assembly Republicans when they had the a majority in 1995. He went on to lead the senate Republicans. Brulte can bring the state party out of debt, but he says it will take at least 6 more years for the party to recover. Even then the party must find away to reinvent itself to new voters in the state if it wants to compete. Otherwise at the end of the day you're selling a product that no one wants to buy.

    "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

    by lordpet8 on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 08:55:04 PM PST

    •  If that projected budget surplus does in fact (5+ / 0-)

      materialize next year, it will be interesting to see what happens for the state GOP. Not that one budget surplus solves the state's financial problems, but it would be a big turnaround from what Brown inherited.

      And given that the GOP loves to focus on budget issues, it seems like it will neutralize that talk, especially given the surplus happened under a Dem governor and 2/3 Dem majority in the legislature.

      We are seeing the IL GOP move more leftward on non-budget issues, I wonder if we will see the same in CA.

      •  IL Repubs are trying to oust their chairman... (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, abgin, bythesea, lordpet8, MichaelNY

        ...over his support over legalizing gay marriage in that state. I wrote about that here.

        Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

        by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 12:06:39 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  The CA GOP is in a quandary (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jj32, MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

        Half of the party is filled with conservative social voters and other half the more pragmatic conservatives and libertarians.
        The problem is the party fears it will lose half of its base if it concedes on social wars and doesn't want to risk it, even if it increases the parties chances at winning more independents and new voters.

        "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

        by lordpet8 on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 05:31:00 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  I like this diary very much but I confess (0+ / 0-)

    that the first answer that crossed my mind (I've been watching "The Human Family Tree" on Nat Geo TV) =

    white,black,Asian....HUMAN RACE.

    When it comes to political races I'm fired up and ready to go.....Finger on the Actblue.com button when needed.

    Looking forward to intelligent, K.I.S.S. input from Kossacks.

  •  Has Schumer ever got his portrait updated? (0+ / 0-)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/...

    That pic was uploaded since 2005, but I think that was taken pre '05 just by judging the quality of the photo. I know some other senators have never updated theirs for some time too.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-9 (Clarke), Living in NJ-10 (Payne Jr).

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 09:22:16 PM PST

  •  Oliver Stone's Untold History of the US (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, SouthernINDem

    So I've been watching this miniseries for the past few weeks, while I don't buy into all of stone's theories I found the chapters on WW2 to be decent.

    It seems most of the episodes are up online

    http://youtu.be/...

    http://www.youtube.com/...

    He makes out FDR and JFK to be the heroes and gives even more credit to Henry Wallace (though I hardly think Wallace could have won against Dewey in '48)

    I did learn a few things

    -The soviets did the bulk of the fighting in European theater while the US did the most of the combat in the pacific theater. (When I was first learning history I remember being disappointed in the Soviets not joining the war in Japan earlier, but now it makes sense seeing how much they had lost from fighting the Germans)

    -The Soviet-German alliance (This always bugged me in my US history class, why would these two polar opposites join together?) Stone presents his case saying that Soviets were cornered and rather than risk a German invasion, best to sign alliance in hopes of delaying an attack.

    -Henry Wallace nomination for veep in 1944. This has led to some confusion for me. Stone paints a picture of FDR wanting Wallace but too ill to go defend him at convention. Stone continues discussing how the convention had to adjourn (lest Wallace would win the nomination). Stone even has archive footage off Wallace interview where he recalls how FDR pulled him close to his ear saying "Henry I hope it will be the same team"
    Now the story I recall was that FDR wrote a note with two names of the people he wanted on his ticket (William O Douglass, who refused; and Harry Truman)

    The main gripe I have about the series is that stone neglects to assess the reality of political situations, and neglects to look at social progress made under many of the presidents.

    "Unfortunately when the Republican party needs to be a big tent party it seems to me we are doing everything we can to become a pup tent party. " — Virginia Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R)

    by lordpet8 on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 09:33:27 PM PST

    •  Stone also gushes over Stalin... (7+ / 0-)

      ...saying what a great hero he was blah blah... oh, yeah, he murdered 18 million people and shot their own soldiers, too, but we'll gloss over that part.  I didn't like that part at all.  They make the Soviet leadership out to be the victims.  The Molotov-Ribbentroff pact was not out of "weakness".  The Soviets got a lot of land in that deal.  Stalin thought that Hitler would abide by its terms, which is why the Soviet Union was caught with their pants down when the Germans did decide to attack.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 10:12:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  yep about the European theater (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, gabjoh, LordMike, lordpet8, Taget

      If you look, the thaw in late summer/early fall in 1941 is when the Axis invasion of the Soviet Union really stalled out.  They made only a few limited and marginal gains after that.  For the most part the remainder of the war was the Soviets pushing them back.  It looks to me like we just sped up the victory with our efforts in Europe rather than being determinative.  Though had we not invaded Italy and France I can't imagine the post-war scene in Europe would have been good.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 01:22:21 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  The problem with Oliver Stone is he is too good. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, LordMike, lordpet8, BeloitDem

      Look at JFK.  Complete crackpot conspiracy theories but it's a compelling movie.  Nixon despite having it's own large factual errors was a great movie.  Which makes it tougher to explain to people that the stuff in them isn't real.

      Same thing with that mini-series documentary which is well done.  But just seems to get so much very much wrong.  But when you have the historical "characters" talking using audio processing that makes it indistinguishable from real archival recordings it adds such a false sense of false sense of authenticity.

      Wallace and Stalin of course were great examples of Stone at best being very selective with how he portrayed facts.  From watching it you would've thought Eleanor Roosevelt was supporting Henry Wallace for President in 1948.  Nothing could be further from the truth.  Americans for Democratic Action was formed with her support to help nurture an anti-communist American Left and was squarely aimed at his supporters.

      The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

      by Taget on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 02:08:48 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  "Complete crackpot conspiracy theories" (0+ / 0-)

        Uh-oh.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 11:16:16 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  JFK (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades, MichaelNY

        I'd not be so quick to dismiss theories regarding the assassination of JFK as crackpot conspiracies.

        RFK Jr now refutes the Warren Commission report, as do a lot of other people on the ground.

        Living in New Orleans, this is especially true, considering much of the alleged planning of the assassination happened here.

        23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

        by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 02:12:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yeah, it makes sense. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          That it was the act of an organization, not a single person.  Otherwise, Oswalds's murder by nightclub owner Jack Ruby wouldn't make sense.  Oswald was a liability and he needed to be put down.  But alas, I'm not well-read enough on the matter to speculate deeper.  But I wouldn't go so far as some conspiracy theorists do.  I highly doubt it was a government conspiracy, but the act of a group that Kennedy had aggravated with his policies or actions.  Perhaps they were working for Jimmy Hoffa, whom A-G Robert Kennedy was aggressively going after with everything he had.  That's my educated guess.  MichaelNY hinted that he thinks that a rogue military leadership that hated Kennedy's foreign policy had a hand in it.

          Oh, and Lee Harvey Oswald hailed from New Orleans and went back there shortly before he got a job in Dallas at the infamous textbook depository.

          I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

          by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 02:34:10 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  It's possible there is more to it. (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades, MichaelNY

          Perhaps organized crime involvement or soviet involvement.  I'm skeptical because if there is one thing the government has proven remarkably bad at it is keeping secrets.

          But the homosexual / cuban expatriate theory being spun by Jim Garrison in the movie is at best crackpot if you want to be generous.  And homophobic political grandstanding if you don't.

          And the movie JFK was Garrison with a little Carl Oglesby thrown in.

          The lady was enchanted and said they ought to see. So they charged her with subversion and made her watch TV -Spirogyra

          by Taget on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 04:04:57 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Gay thing (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Garrison used his homosexuality as a way of making the job of securing a conviction easier, as homosexuality wasn't looked well upon in south Louisiana then.

            The Cuban thing has more to do with the fact that back then New Orleans was the gateway to Latin America. Conservative latin americans flocked to NOLA, and the fall of Cuba scared a lot of the Latin American dictators and their conservative business associates here in NOLA who profited richly from these dictatorships.

            23, Male, LA-02, TX-08 (originally), SSP: sschmi4

            by Stephen Schmitz on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 04:35:54 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  On Henry Wallace, in 1944, please read... (5+ / 0-)

      ...both Truman by David McCullough and the Henry Wallace biography authored by former U.S. Senator John Culver.

      They give very different perspectives, understandably and extremely helpfully so, of the 1944 VP selection.

      The juxtaposition of those two perspectives illustrates that there is no single "truth" in much of history, just different ways of experiencing the same events.

      But the two perspectives share in common that party bosses engineered the pick, and that FDR was considerably passive in allowing them to make it.  But the Culver book claims Wallace was much closer to getting renominated for VP than you would ever realize from the McCullough book.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 09:30:21 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  What do people think of OFA becoming (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    a non profit to support the president's policies?

    The big negative of this is that apparently they cant be involved in elections, only policy. So I'm assuming that means they cant do voter registration, which was a big part of the old OFA(soon to be Organizing for Action).

    The last time, post-2009, they tried to get involved in policy, it didnt really work out. But I think part of the problem then was that OFA was folded into the DNC and certainly didnt get the resources it got during the campaigns. But this new nonprofit can raise an unlimited amount of money, and will have a lot of the Obama campaign people in charge, including Jim Messina,  David Plouffe and Stephanie Cutter. That combination could prove effective.

    Some have suggested it could develop into a kind of Clinton Global Initiative type group for Obama, post-presidency. Too soon to know if that is the case, although it's certainly been noted, that the Obamas are going to be relatively young when they leave office(Barack 56, Michelle 53), so it could very well become a vehicle for whatever public service they want to do after 2016.

    •  Non-profits (6+ / 0-)

      Can do voter registration, but they cannot target "partisans" only. They can skirt that by targeting groups that are obviously mostly Democrats. I.E. they can target "minorities" or "Hispanics" or what-have-you, knowing full well that the results are of that.

      They can also engage in ads as long as they don't endorse a candidate either in pro or con.

      23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

      by wwmiv on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 10:54:56 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think it's pretty lame (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, gabjoh, jj32

      and I certainly hope it won't be used to push some policies (like  "education reform") of the Obama admin when they're gone.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 01:25:28 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I think it's going to fail spectacularly (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DownstateDemocrat, jj32

      Especially if it's going to be used to try and push through any "grand bargain".  Basically it's trying to create the Obamacrats who will support any and all Pres Obama pushes for.  

      In the very least I'd like to see separate fundraising pools, so if I want to donate to the cause of comprehensive immigration reform or a stricter EPA, better energy policy I can without my money being put towards fighting to sell a shit sandwich grand bargain.  

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 08:07:16 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  It can help only in situations where... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      ...there is a clearly-defined legislative proposal to push.

      Health care was a disaster when the reconstituted OFA tried to do it.  There was no clear set of legislative proposals to ask core Democrats to push for, only the Administration's vague principles.

      This new group could help on something like gun control, where marshaling grassroots support is needed, and there is a clear set of proposals by Obama.

      That's what it takes, clear proposals that can be easily digested.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 09:24:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  On a non-elections note: television! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8

    I watched the Fringe series finale tonight, and I was completely satisfied. It's very rare for a show to end on its own terms, especially a genre show like Fringe whose audience continued to shrink over its run. I think Fox redeemed itself for its Firefly transgression by letting this show end the way it wanted to. I'm quite grateful. I think this show will always be in my top 10.

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 10:54:57 PM PST

  •  Also, a weekend tune of my own (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, itskevin

    24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

    by HoosierD42 on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 10:56:07 PM PST

  •  First, this story is completely ridiculous (4+ / 0-)

    link

    A Washington state lawmaker last week withdrew a bill to limit self-defense rights after saying she receiving threats by telephone and email that have made her fear for her life.

    Rep. Sherry Appleton, D-Poulsbo, said House Bill 1012, filed last month, was spurred by the Trayvon Martin shooting last February, in which a neighborhood watch volunteer in Florida shot dead the unarmed Martin, 17, after confronting him on the street.

    It's completely unacceptable to threaten the lives or families of politicians because of legislation or policies they support.  I also think it's wrong, though, to back down because of threats.  I'm not going to pass judgment on this piece of legislation in particular, but backing down is giving in to the crazies.

    And also:

    Rep. Matt Shea, R-Spokane Valley, a gun enthusiast, said he was heartened by the strong negative response to the measure — but he condemned any physical threats.

    "When the grassroots gets involved like they did and they call her up and they say, 'Hey, we oppose this,' that's grassroots activism at its finest," said Shea. "Anytime anyone on either side of the aisle gets threatened, obviously that doesn't help."

    What a piece of shit!

    Now, for music, one of my favorites for a number of months:

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 01:35:14 AM PST

    •  Passion Pit really hit a home run (0+ / 0-)

      with that latest album, thanks for reminding me to listen to it again.

      Now about guns... I think the gun control debate brings out the worst in people on all sides of the political spectrum, which is why I've been trying to be neutral on it lately (despite having some strong views of my own).

      Did that DKE Policy thing ever get started up?

      How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 05:29:05 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I agree - you are in public office, threats happen (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      She should immediately resign from office.  And she's going to get threats on any and every bill now because it's proven that she'll bend to the pressure.  I mean if somebody called and emailed saying that they'll do her and her family harm because she pulled the bill - then what is she going to do?

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 08:11:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Weekend music (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Alibguy, lordpet8

  •  WaPo asks: Can Oregon save American Health Care? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico

    link

    specifically about Kitzhaber's attempts at reform here.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 08:33:53 AM PST

  •  CA-Gov: Tim Donnelly sure is a piece of work (3+ / 0-)

    http://thinkprogress.org/...
    If he's the GOP nominee (a big if) for Governor, let's do a non-babka contest on how much he'll lose by and which counties he'll win.

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 08:48:54 AM PST

  •  Schweitzer/Hagan 2016 (3+ / 0-)

    would be my second choice to Hillary/Warner. With a red state governor and Washington outsider as the headliner and a female senator from a reddish/purple state bringing up the rear, nothing could stop us!

    Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

    by interstate73 on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 08:59:40 AM PST

    •  I think Hagan is a bit conservative (0+ / 0-)

      for the national ticket, unless we have a stylistic/policy contrast to her in someone like O'Malley.

      How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 09:19:30 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Imagine the Schweitzer vs Christie debates!! (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BeloitDem, jj32, MichaelNY

      "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

      by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 10:17:24 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm increasingly wondering... (5+ / 0-)

        If Gov. Christie might end up bolting the party and joining that whole "No Labels" movement. I definitely don't see him as a Democrat, but the likes of Newsmax are churning out smear pieces on him almost daily, and IIRC, his approval ratings are down among Republicans even as they're way up among non-Republicans.

        Christie is one of just a few politicians I can see making a plausible third-party run for the presidency, especially if the Democratic nominee is an unabashed liberal like Gov. O'Malley and the Republican nominee is a rock-ribbed conservative like Sen. Cruz or Rep. Paul Ryan.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 11:33:34 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Honestly, I'm not sure how much (5+ / 0-)

          Christie differs from Ryan, at least on economic policy. The main difference is he believes in actually trying to govern.

        •  I've wrote comments saying that exact thing... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

          but canceled writing it as I talk myself out of that idea.  He's making a lot of enemies on the right and a lot of those folks will have long knives out for him.  Romney people have to hate his guts, than his blasting Boehner for the Sandy Bill, and most recently calling out the NRA when they're demanding total support and a united block from their supporters/suportees.

          I'm waiting to see what he'll do on the same sex marriage issue.  If he campaigns this re-election campaign saying "I vetoed it because I campaigned saying I would, but now I'm saying I will sign it" I think that will be a huge tip off that he's up to something.  But I can't see him winning national office as the NJ Gov who vetoed same sex marriage equality given how quickly the country is moving to support it.  But at the same time it would tough to win GOP primaries if he did sign off on it - especially now that he took the hits to veto it once already.  

          "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

          by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 11:50:43 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Marriage (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            psychicpanda, Audrid, MichaelNY
            But I can't see him winning national office as the NJ Gov who vetoed same sex marriage equality given how quickly the country is moving to support it.
            That won't impact him in a general election.  The movement of support towards ME isn't people saying "We demand marriage equality and won't stand for anything less!"  It's more like "sure why not." We've seen time and time again that the average voter who supports marriage equality is more than willing to vote for a candidate who doesn't, and I don't see that changing anytime soon even if support gets up to 60%.

            My point is if Christie wants to be president, he will to veto again.  Signing would kill him in the primary, but a veto will have very little impact on him in the general.

            27, NE-2 (resident), IL-9 (part-timer), SD-AL (raised); SSP and DKE lurker since 2007

            by JDJase on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 12:30:30 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

        •  Credible third-party presidential campaigns (0+ / 0-)

          That would require one of three scenarios:

          1) Democrats nominate an unabashed liberal and Republicans nominate an unabashed conservative. A centrist third-party candidate could emerge as a viable candidate in that scenario.

          2) Democrats nominate a centrist and Republicans nominate an unabashed conservative. I could see a left-leaning third-party candidate emerge as a viable candidate in that scenario.

          3) Democrats nominate an unabashed liberal and Republicans nominate a centrist. I could see a right-leaning third-party candidate emerge as a viable candidate in that scenario.

          Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

          by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 12:04:10 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  No (5+ / 0-)

            People talk as if there is such a thing as a "viable" independent candidate. There isn't. There are times when an independent candidates becomes intriguing for the average voter, but that doesn't ever translate into actual electoral viability. Perot, even if he had won a plurality of votes in 1992 or 1996, would not have won the electoral college - something that any independent actually has to do because if they don't, the whole affair is thrown into the House.

            Imagine that the independent candidate qualifies for all 50 states' ballots. In order to win the popular vote (let alone have a chance at winning the electoral college), you'd have to assume that the independent candidates takes roughly 35% of the vote in every state.

            The problem here is that in all likelihood, in conservative states the Republican would get 38-40% and in the liberal states the Democrat would get 38-40% with the balance going to the opposite party, leaving the independent with no states one despite winning the popular vote 35-32-32.

            The party's nominees themselves are guaranteed at least 30% on ideological reasons alone. It wouldn't matter if the Republicans nominate an unabashed conservative, because regular Republicans would support that candidate. It wouldn't matter if Democrats nominate an unabashed liberal, because regular Democrats would support that candidate. In order for an independent to even have a chance at breaking through - let alone the chance at become a viable contender (which I contend is nearly impossible because of the structural barriers to viability) - there has to be something wrong with not one (in which case the opposing party's candidate would win), but both of the party's candidates on non-ideological grounds.

            In other words, the candidates have to be convicted child rapists of their Asian sex-slave's 4 year old girl or something of that so very heinous nature for an independent to even be viable. And even then they aren't viable because of themselves, they are viable because multiple others' moral transgressions. And what do you think happens under these circumstances? Both of the parties would likely require that their nominee step-down because if they can convince their candidate to do so while the other party can not, they'll instantly win the election and the independent becomes a non-factor again. Game theory is a biatch here.

            23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

            by wwmiv on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 12:55:14 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Addendum (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              gabjoh, JDJase, MichaelNY

              This only applies to Presidential races under the current election structure. Obviously their is such a thing as a viable independent at lower levels of elective office, but that has to do with differing - and lesser - structural impediments for those offices.  

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 12:56:39 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

        •  I think Christie still has a good chance (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          aamail6

          of being the GOP nominee in 2016.

          And I'm flip flopping here, because I previously said that it seemed like Charlie Crist was pushed out of the party after much milder criticism than Christie has gotten.

          But after he wins re-election, Christie will have two whole years to win over the right. And he wont have to worry about re-election in NJ.

        •  No, that won't happen (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf

          Christie is a conservative Republican whose apostasies are trivial and will be forgotten.  He's conservative and can credibly pivot right whenever he wants.

          And no he's not a plausible third-party nominee.

          People need to keep proper perspective, the things that have gotten Christie some helpful attention in the news are not things that voters really care about outside his own state.  Bashing Republicans over Sandy aid hurts Republicans without helping him, except in New Jersey itself.  Bashing the NRA for using Obama's kids in a video doesn't help him win votes, it's ultimately a shiny object for the media that doesn't matter as a voting issue.  Bashing Islamophobes for criticizing his appointment of a Muslim judge doesn't help him win votes from anyone, since the only people who cheer him on that issue are liberals who won't vote for him in any case, and non-liberal Muslims who are too few to matter electorally.

          On things voters actually care about, Christie is generic R, no appeal as an independent.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 09:16:31 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't agree on the latter point (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            Voters don't care as much about policy as you think they do. They vote for the person just as much, and in that respect, Gov. Christie's posturing helps him cultivate his own brand and distance himself from the nationally unpopular Republican Party.

            Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

            by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 09:27:05 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  In fact (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, BeloitDem, gabjoh

              Independents often vote more for the person than they do on ideology. Thankfully, although they usually wield the balance between a win or a loss, independents are not always the deciding vote.

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 10:14:30 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Also (2+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

                I would posit that Christie's image as a person prior to the hurricane would have been awful for the national stage as he often came across as a bully. Now, however, he comes across as a champion fighting for the benefit of his state.

                Remember, independents are usually the most politically unaware group and that "image" is really all that matters for them. But also remember that true independents are really only 5-10% of the electorate depending on the election, but for two reasons: 1) because true independents have lower turnout due to perceptions of low efficacy of voting and 2) because most independents actually lean one way or the other (some research has actually found that these "independents" actually have higher straight party voting habits than some partisans!).

                23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                by wwmiv on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 10:18:29 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  That doesn't help him with anyone (0+ / 0-)

              First of all, Chris Christie is a conservative Republican and will never leave the party.  He's not Charlie Crist, an ideological mish-mash who doesn't clearly fit in a major party.  So talk of an indy run is purely whimsical, which is fine because that's one purpose of DKE discussion threads but it's important to be aware we're not talking about a serious possibility.

              Looking at an indy run, his best case in a serious indy run is as plurality winner of indies with a smattering of Rs and Ds IF at least one major party nominee is fatally flawed.

              But that's not realistic in 2016, when the Presidency is an open seat and both parties are likely to nominate credible nominees.  I suppose the teabagging insanity could extend another 3 years and the GOP shoots itself in the foot with a crazy lunatic, but they didn't do that last year when it was more likely than ever they might, and there are a bunch of people thinking of running who swing voters will take seriously.  On our side, we'll also have a credible nominee, even if it comes down to O'Malley vs. Cuomo we'll be fine with swing voters.

              Meanwhile, Christie obviously hasn't endeared himself to anyone in the GOP base with his rhetoric, so he's nto helped himself in his own party...although ultimately I think this stuff will be forgotten.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 10:33:01 AM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  The things Christie has jabbered about (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

            are things winger voters across the country care a lot about.  Nobody in New Jersey gives a shit about the political implications of Christie talking about Obama's kids.  GOP primary voting wingers across the country will get lathered up about Christie's "NRA bashing".

            If Christie keeps up the same behavior of the past four months, he has zero chance of being the GOP nominee.  he could plausibly run indy, but that is super unlikely.  He talks like a man who is saying: "hey, look at me draw attention to myself with straight talk", which is the road to punditry, not national office.  (And of course this "straight talk" is helpful to getting reelected in New Jersey.)

            Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

            by tommypaine on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 10:37:31 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I disagree, and I imagine David would as well (4+ / 0-)

              At least about the implications of his defense of Obama and the President's children:

              It's important to remember that to remain a member in good standing of the conservative movement, it isn't enough just to vote a certain way. You have to evidence a very particular tribal belonging - you need to hate the right people, be ignorant of the right facts, be fearful of the right bogeymen, and be arrogant about the whole enterprise. If you somehow fail this tribal litmus test, it doesn't matter how right-wing you are

              23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

              by wwmiv on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 10:44:19 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  Assume this was meant as a reply to DCCyclone (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                And I agree, of course. It's all about posturing, and it's not just Tea Party folks who are swayed by that.

                Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

                by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 10:57:16 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

              •  I'm expecting by 2016... (0+ / 0-)

                ...teabaggers are likely to peter out in their intensity.  It's a long time for this kind of craziness to continue, and I'm very skeptical it will.

                My original comment was, in hindsight, confusing because I was trying to comment on two things at once, the effect of his rhetoric in his party and the effect in the broader electorate if he ran as an indy.  So I was muddled, and the replies I'm getting are responding to different things.

                My point re the GOP primaries is that a lot is going to happen between now and 2016, even in Christie's Governorship assuming he's reelected, and those things will drive his image.  His postruing over Sandy is not going to cause long-term angst among teabaggers as long as there are not other policy apostasies in his governance.  Disaster relief is a unique animal where electeds know they have to deliver to their own, and frankly I doubt teabaggers will stay angry over something like that long-term.  Christie is very good at hating the right people, which is why he became a wingnut darling early on in the first place.  He can go back to that at any time.

                44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                by DCCyclone on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 10:38:23 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Huh? (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, wwmiv
                  Christie is very good at hating the right people, which is why he became a wingnut darling early on in the first place.
                  He slammed Boehner and praised Obama. I'm really surprised at your arguments. The Tea Party or whatever Republican extremists call themselves in 2016 won't forget this.

                  Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                  by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 11:57:20 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Look at his rhetoric from 2009 thru summer 2012 (0+ / 0-)

                    He was a wingnut darling that whole time.  He's had maybe three or four individual instances of leaving the ranch rhetorically.  One of those involved a judicial appointment of a Muslim...not someone of questionable ideology, but merely a Muslim.  A couple others involved natural disaster recovery.  None of this undercuts his conservative bona fides.

                    All this compares to years of bashing Obama and Democrats and Democratic constituencies.

                    I'm not saying Christie will be the GOP nominee or that he'll be a frontrunner.  He could very well fade.  But I think these few instances of leaving the ranch are overemphasized because they're recent.  Where I think teabaggers will go is to ultimately blame Romney himself, not Christie or anyone else, for Obama's reelection.  Romney himself will be the scapegoat with others who got some flack in real time absolved, as people come to accept that Chris Christie and whoever else they're mad at did not get Barack Obama reelected.

                    I think a year from now you're going to see very different wingnut attitudes toward Christie.  This will be even more true if he wins reelection......his star then will burn bright again, as his party's rank-and-file will be intrigued all over again by this conservative who was able to get elected and reelected in a blue state.

                    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                    by DCCyclone on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 08:10:56 PM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I really couldn't disagree more (2+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      wwmiv, KingofSpades

                      Christie is definitely a conservative for the Northeast, but he is not close to a Tea Partier, and there is no freakin way his criticism of Boehner and pragmatic embrace of Obama will be subordinated to his previous record in the minds of Republican extremists. I have trouble fathoming how you are drawing these kinds of conclusions, while having watched the politics of the last 4 years.

                      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

                      by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 09:37:42 PM PST

                      [ Parent ]

    •  Although Warner isn't the wankerish kind of (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      R30A, DCCyclone

      centrist Democrat, I think the modern Democratic party can afford to have someone more progressive in the #2 spot.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 02:35:40 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  My logic was that it would lock up Virginia (0+ / 0-)

        And allow us to work more on infiltrating the South (Georgia, Texas, Arkansas to be specific) as well as Arizona, Montana, the Dakotas, and NE-02. Basically just one less swing state to worry about.

        Barbara Buono for NJ Governor 2013, Terry McAuliffe for VA Governor 2013

        by interstate73 on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 04:46:20 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Bad logic these days (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, Alibguy

          Warner is insanely popular in Virginia, but only the top of the ticket matters except in a razor-thin race where all other things are equal, which is an extraordinarily rare situation.

          And Warner doesn't help in any other state.  No one outside Virginia has ever heard of him, and there's nothing about him culturally or ideologically that appeals to people in those red states.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 09:10:50 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Warner (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            May have cultural appeal to the conservative white southerners but I feel they have left the Democratic Party too strongly to be courted back.

            Also, as we saw with Paul Ryan, the homestate effect is not always very strong. Warner though is very popular in Virginia (and represents all of it instead of 1/8) so he may help move it a few points.

            For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog http://racesandredistricting.blogspot.com/ CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

            by Alibguy on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 01:08:26 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

    •  BOOOOO (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, R30A

      We need as many dem senators in the senate as possible, especially in a state like NC, where dems were brutally murdered in 2010.

      Want a top Female on the Schweitzer ticket?  Grab Kirsten Gillibrand.

      Swingnut since 2009, 22, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-12 (college)

      by Daman09 on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 08:09:37 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ryan Alessi: Failure for Dems to challenge (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat

    McConnell could lead to GOP takeover in the State House:
    http://mycn2.com/...
    There are a lot of other factors, such as how aggressive Dems get in redistricting and the critical one: whether Dems can keep their members from retiring. Dems lost four open seats and only two Dem incumbents lost. Dems gained one GOP open seat and won back a seat in Louisville against a GOP incumbent. Dems could probably add a new seat in Fayette County, but they are pretty tapped out as to how many seats they already hold in Jefferson County, as the population growth has been in the eastern part of the county. I worry that Rep. Bob Damron (D-Nicholasville) may retire/or switch parties if the House is close in 2014 given his ouster from the Dem leadership. Remember that Rep. John Arnold (D-Sturgis) only won by 5 votes in 2012, as well as a few other close calls in 2012.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 09:08:06 AM PST

    •  And there's all the times (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      McConnell won in landslides against bottom tier candidates.  So yeah, there are many factors in state control.  Are there any serious Dem candidates thinking of running against him (Mayors, legislators, Judge-Execs, etc.)?  I suppose we at least need a well-funded candidate to force him to blow his money all on his own election.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 11:56:50 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  McConnell only won received over 55% (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Englishlefty, MichaelNY, R30A

        once in his career in 2002, and he did not put together much of an effort to take any House seats, and Dems only lost a couple of House seats that year. Most of the action then was in the State Senate. The big thing to watch is open seats and whether Dems can get back their seats (and hold the remaining ones) in Western Kentucky. McConnell runs the nastiest campaigns of nearly anyone in the nation (in 1990, he basically accused Harvey Sloane of being a drug addict, and then in 2008 accused Bruce Lunsford of killing nursing home patients, not to mention his borderline anti-Jewish campaign because Lois Combs last name was then Weinberg- the GOP really emphasized the last name), and the potentials may not want to go through his buzzsaw.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 12:29:15 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  What a disgusting human being. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SLDemocrat, MichaelNY, R30A

          Nevertheless, I hope there's some people planning to (Greg Fischer, perhaps, or is he flawed?), but are staying quiet until they file lest they get openly attacked early.  Also, I hope redistricting is done early so it doesn't push up against the deadline like last time.  I take it Democrats will shore up Gerald Watkins, squeeze out another Dem seat in the Purchase, draw out Jill York, and shore up any Dems in iffy seats (like the Chair of the Jud. committee) while Republicans will try to shore up their gains (draw their Owensboro district to include Ohio County, draw out one EKy Democrat, and hurt Perry Clark).  Should lead to a net gain of one for the GOP and a few for the Democrats (e.g. a Nelson County-only HD where the GOP minority whip almost retired under until the maps were thrown out).

          I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

          by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 01:13:31 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  USAToday drops Gallup as it's pollster (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY
    Gallup will no longer be conducting polls for USA Today, the two organizations announced Friday.

    Both said the split, after 20 years of collaboration, was a mutual decision based on the changing media and polling landscape.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

    I hope they are the first of many, but I suspect Gallup will go the Rasmussen route.

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 10:47:52 AM PST

  •  Will Bolling run as an Indie? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY

    I guess it's good turnabout for Artur Davis' weird insanity after he lost the primary.

    I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 12:13:18 PM PST

  •  WATN? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    You may remember Margarete Worthington, a Democrat who ran for a seat in the Wisconsin State Senate in WI-SD-14 in 2012, losing to Republican incumbent Luther Olsen.

    I commented on Worthington's Facebook page to suggest that residents of WI-SD-4 get a recall petition on Lena Taylor, and, well, let's just say that I offended Worthington and she called me out for it.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 01:15:50 PM PST

  •  Daily Kos Elections: Policy (9+ / 0-)

    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    I created the group a little while go, but just now got around to posting about it. No content yet, but I'm sure there members here with plenty of good ideas for diaries and I hope at least of couple of members will be willing to help out as admins for the group.

    26, Male, CA-26, DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

    by DrPhillips on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 04:42:16 PM PST

  •  MA-Sen, NJ-Gov, NV-Gov, ME-Sen, WI-Gov and NM-Gov (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DownstateDemocrat

    These are the most interesting races for me now.

    Two years ago I was calling for fighting MA-Sen, ME-Sen and NV-Sen, despite then it seems longshots. Well, now Snowe and Brown are out the senate and Heller keeps the seat very narrowly.

    These states are favorable constituencies for the Democratic Party, and are winnable by nature. With the right candidates, and enough effort it is possible to win these races.

    It is time to work strongly and I wish to encourage you. It is necessary to remember sometingh: The Republicans that can win in these states in 2013-14, can become strong condidates for the Republican primary for President in 2016.

     

  •  Here is how I would draw the KY-House (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    in the Western Part- Hope King of Spades would approve

    I eliminate Ben Waide's seat, and put the most Dem precincts in Rep. Jim Gooch (D-Providence) district. HD-10 moves to a leftover seat in Nelson, Bullitt, and Hardin Counties. Nelson County is split as its population is high enough to split. Tried to make the 4th district more winnable. HD-3 takes in the best Paducah precincts- the only other choice is the 4 Mississippi River Counties plus downtown Paducah. There is little that can be done with HD-2 or HD-5. Rep. Dwight Butler (R-Hardinsburg) is given a seat that Dems should win when he retires. HD-13 is weakened to shore up surrounding seats- Jim Glenn (D-Owensboro) may be too weak to hold it. Rep. Jeff Greer (D-Owensboro) and Jimmie Lee (D-Elizabethtown) are given much safer seats, while Rep. Tim Moore (R-Elizabethtown) is given a very safe seat.

     photo WesternKY-2_zpsccd70853.jpg

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 06:46:01 PM PST

    •  Jeff Greer should be (D-Brandenburg) (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      Silly of me since I can see Brandenburg from my uncle's porch.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 06:50:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  Very good work. (0+ / 0-)

      I hope the people who draw the maps are at least as prudent.  What you did to Warren County makes me wanna drool.  I presume Nelson County gets a Dem seat that takes up most of its pop.

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 07:08:38 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Nelson split up (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        to help shore up Rep. Terry Mills (D-Lebanon), and to draw an new Anderson-Nelson seat. Also, I eliminate the HD-91 that Teddy Edmonds lost and place it in Lexington with a Dem seat. A lot depends on how many counties under population over one district can be split. There are currently 6, and I only split 5. I just hope that HD-04 can swich over on this map. Western KY has limited chances to gerrymander.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 07:38:09 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Three-step plan for taking back the House... (7+ / 0-)

    And/or restoring balance to the Force.

    1. Go for broke on getting independent redistricting commissions in states where Republicans have screwed us with gerrymandering. Ideally, these commissions will force mid-decade redistricting, but I think the most important thing is to put them in place in a way where the governor and legislature can't just undo them or go around them. That brings us to:

    2. Take the courts. I've written before about my discomfort with the idea of judges and justices being so ideologically oriented that they might as well have little (D)s and (R)s after their names -- but we need judges and justices in both state and federal courts who believe in good government. That means fair redistricting, no end-runs around independent officials, and no money = free speech BS. That last point is tangential, but I think it's important, because a big part of why we're in this mess is that we let money into politics. In this overall goal, it's a huge victory that we held the White House last year, and clutch holds of several governors' mansions helped, too. Hopefully, having good-government courts will pave the way for the final goal:

    3. Build a national consensus around the idea that fair campaign finance rules and fair redistricting are civil rights issues. People in Florida, even poor people and young people and people who didn't speak very good English, got mad when Gov. Rick Scott and the Republicans in Tallahassee tried to take away their voting rights by fucking with early voting, closing polling places, and instituting voter ID laws to counter a "problem" (voter fraud) that is as imaginary as the Tooth Fairy. We need people to get mad over whoever controls the trifecta (or not, as seen in North Carolina and New York) getting to draw whatever lines they want so majority legislators can keep their jobs and create some nice opportunities for them to move up to Congress -- choosing their constituents rather than constituents being able to choose their representatives. We need people to get mad over the super-rich having vast and shadowy powers that allow them to anonymously funnel millions of dollars into races across the country, launder political contributions for their own use, and essentially rig the law in their favor.

    This isn't a battle to be won with whip counts and procedural maneuvers. We need OFA now, and we need anything else we can get. This is a battle that will be won state by state -- and it's not a battle Democrats can delay. I see no reason why Republicans cannot hold the House indefinitely under the current lines, and I see no reason why that would change considering the congressional gerrymanders in Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, and more are accompanied by legislative ones as well. If Democrats want to win back the House, this is how they have to do it.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 07:09:01 PM PST

    •  Step 1 and 3 all the way (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

      I mentioned it upthread, but here's my completed draft of what we can do on independent redistricting initiatives.

      I think our constitution just fucks us over plain and simple and we're bound for 10 years of gridlock, or at best 2009 repeats unless Dems get serious and gut the filibuster, but that being said our long term strategy should be to add some form of proportional representation, which will never happen.  So realistically we really need to amend the constitution since a Republican trifecta could just gut a national redistricting commission or the hack supreme court might strike it down.  That's going to be a very heavy lift.

      At the state level it will be very difficult if not impossible to break the Republican stranglehold on states like North Carolina where there's no initiative process and we're not going to have the legislature set up a commission.  We're going to need a full on constitutional convention here to break free of GOP control as I don't see how we take back the legislature ever unless Democratic votes start becoming a lot more efficiently spread out.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

      by sawolf on Sat Jan 19, 2013 at 07:20:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  More importantly, (0+ / 0-)

      how does this plan restore balance to the Force?

    •  In a majority of states (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, MichaelNY

      The Governors appoint judges, especially the state Supreme Courts. So we need to take back those governorships.

      And on Step 1, I am 1000% in agreement. We need to put them on the ballot this November and pass them to take effect in 2014. No excuses.

      24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

      by HoosierD42 on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 03:40:28 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  you have to be patient (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      things have a way of sorting themselves out. Gerrymandering may work in the space of a few years but eventually will become less and less effective as time goes on.

      The 1991 Texas gerrymander may have held up throughout the 1990s but as time went on, became less and less effective until the metaphorical dam broke in 2002.

      RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

      by demographicarmageddon on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 08:32:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Roll Call's 10 Freshmen to Watch (4+ / 0-)

    Surprisingly, they didn't pick any of the three Republican bomb throwers who are already saying impeachment is on the table - Ted Yoho, Steve Stockman, and Trey Radel otherwise known as the Triumvirate of Crazy. I'd think their antics especially Stockman's will be interesting to watch (or laugh at) over the next two years.

    Joyce Beatty is kind of an interesting (and accomplished) figure. But by the time the Democrats get the majority back, she'll probably be nearing retirement. I don't know how effective  she'll be in the minority.

    Is Susan Brooks supposed to be a moderate? If she keeps talking about civility she's probably going to wind up with a primary challenger in the deep red district she represents in Indiana.

    Anne Wagner went from city councilwoman to Ambassador to Luxembourg? Weird transition. She must have broke the bank for Bush's reelection in '04.

    Link

    •  Susan Brooks was endorsed by the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Hamilton County Tea Party during the 2012 primary. She was somewhat of an accidental winner after former Rep. David McIntosh saw his campaign collapse when questions about his residency arose.

      "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

      by SouthernINDem on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 11:28:43 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  If anyone here wants to catch lunch (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    gabjoh, DCCyclone

    in DC Tuesday to Thursday (I'm assuming tomorrow and today will be a bit hectic), let me know.

    •  Riiiiiight! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      That's why so many of my protest-y friends are in DC right now. Did not put that and the Inauguration together in my head.

      (I went last time, left at 3:30 in the morning, froze my feet off by the Washington Monument, and didn't get back until about 1AM. Still, very much worth it. Have fun!)

      How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 11:39:02 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  IL-Gov (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, Audrid

    Here is my blog post where I play the Great Mentioner as to who might mount a Democratic primary challenge against Pat Quinn in 2014.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 06:54:29 AM PST

  •  Anybody hearing about the craziness in NV Leg? (4+ / 0-)

    Apparently a disgruntled Democratic member threatened to kill the State House speaker. Ralston's twitter feed has the details...

  •  Anyone played Great Mentioner for (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, bfen

    the 2016 Democratic nomination yet? I'm thinking in terms of a really, really long list of names (probably gonna end up in the 50-100 range). Planning on sorting it very loosely by tiers and posting it as a diary.

    How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

    by gabjoh on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 12:22:18 PM PST

    •  Also, a list of the Democratic dissenters (0+ / 0-)

      from Pelosi for speaker in 2013? Found this for 2011.

      How does homeopathy work? | SSP/DKE | -9, -7.79 | "Foreign Seamen, Servants, Negroes, and Other Persons of Mean and Vile Condition." | MO-05 | Yard signs don't vote.

      by gabjoh on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 12:29:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  If Hillary doesn't run (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      It looks like the most open contest on the Democratic side since 1992. The Republican frontrunner is probably Rubio but that looks pretty open too.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 12:43:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  If nothing comes of the John Doe scandal (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DownstateDemocrat, MichaelNY, jj32, R30A

        I'd say Scott Walker has to be a very appealing candidates for Republicans.  Brian Sandoval would have been excellent but he's pro-choice (or so he claims).

        It seems pretty clear that Rubio and Rand Paul will run and I wouldn't put it past Ted Cruz or Bobby Jindal.

        For Democrats it seems abundantly clear that Cuomo and O'Malley will run and it wouldn't surprise me if Biden tries to run in the "secret primary" but doesn't get traction and doesn't stay in until the primaries.  I could also see Mark Warner and John Hickenlooper running, as well as Kirsten Gillibrand.  My dark horse favorite though is Sherrod Brown who'd make a hell of a president and would help us connect with populist voters..

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

        by sawolf on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 12:51:36 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  There is nothing that would make me happier (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jncca, MichaelNY

          (Politically speaking) than a Sherrod Brown presidency.

          Any idea how he would do in Florida and Virginia?

          Registered in NY-02, College CT-01, Spent most of the rest of my life on the border of NY-08 and NY-15

          by R30A on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 06:21:44 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Sherrod Brown's path to 270 (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, R30A

            is pretty much John Kerry's path to 270.  Blue states (including NM and, by 2016, NV too) plus PA, MI, MN, WI, OH, IA.  That's 277 EVs, and he doesn't need VA (which would be tough for him; little manufacturing and few blue collar Whites who aren't culturally Southern), NC (near impossible for him short of a large victory), or FL (probably tough for him as well).  I'd say CO and NH could go either way in a narrow matchup.

            Actually, that path to 277 is Al Gore + Nevada + Ohio.

            20, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 12:19:34 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  I think a governor will be the GOP nominee (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Seems like it could be very effective for, say, Bobby Jindal, to talk about all he conservative policy he has actually passed, while Ryan and Rubio were just talking about conservative policy.

        •  I think it will definitely be a Gov... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Christie, Bush, Jindal, Pence, McDonnell, Walker.  I'm wavering on Jeb even running now that his son is making his move in Texas statewide.

          I think Rubio will end up the top VP candidate for whichever Governor wins.  

          I think a Christie/Rubio makes a lot of sense.  Or Christie could go two Gov ticket, two "Washington Outsiders" who haven't been in the GOP obstruction game who could then better work with Dems.  Christie/Sandoval or Christie/Martinez.  I think Christie will be strong in the midwest that a Kasich or Snyder wouldn't be necessary.  

          I'm not really enthused with the Dem side at all right now.  We definitely need Hillary a top the ticket I think.  Because as the party in the WH, Pres Obama is the leader and as a result no 2016 aspirants will get much of a national exposure.

          Hillary would probably need a Gov on her ticket, eventhough she'd have certain executive experience as Sec of State.  If the goal of the VP is do no harm, and be ready on day one I think Mark Warner is her safest bet as a Gov and senator who has cross-the-aisle credentials (or is at least working on them now)

          I don't like the idea of Buomo running against Christie because it will give him live practice debating a woman and not coming off like a jackass condescending bully.  

          "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

          by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 05:07:04 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yeah, it will tough for Dems without (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            Hillary. Not impossible though. A lot will depend on the economy and Obama's approval ratings.

            If they are both good(say a falling unemployment rate, and Obama's approval solidly over 50%), then I think Dems might have an edge. Especially if the GOP cant articulate a vision beyond, "Obama sucks", something that really wouldnt resonate in the situation I describe above.

      •  Small correction: (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        SouthernINDem, DCCyclone

        If Hillary and Biden both don't run. If Clinton doesn't run and Biden does, it won't be nearly as open.

        24, Practical Progressive Democrat (-4.75, -4.51), DKE Gay Caucus Majority Leader, IN-02; Swingnut. Defeat Wacky Jackie for 2014!

        by HoosierD42 on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 03:43:19 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I disagree (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf, jncca

          I think Biden can be beaten and probably will be. And I'm not comfortable with such a gaffe-prone person as a potential standard-bearer and would be unlikely to vote for him in the primaries, if New York's votes make a damn bit of difference in that cycle.

          Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

          by MichaelNY on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 06:43:55 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I agree, but also (0+ / 0-)

            I think major donors will be reluctant to support Biden for those same reasons. Obama would really have to go full out for him in the primaries for him to be able to raise a prohibitive amount of money and I don't see that happening at all. People like Cuomo will have a lot of cash behind them, at least enough where they won't be scared off by Biden and for people like O'Malley, 2016 is really their only chance as they'll be old news in later cycles if they don't run now.

            Plus, in all the polling I've seen, Biden is considerably less popular than Obama and even were the economy to improve drastically over the next three years I don't think that will rub off that much onto Biden.

            NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

            by sawolf on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 06:51:45 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  Biden would be a lot tougher than you think (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, HoosierD42

            A lot depends on whether Obama is popular as we get into spring 2015.  If he is, then Biden will jump in as long as he has no health problems, and it will be very tough to beat him.

            It's a big mistake to understate the power of being the sitting VP.  You have all the connections of your boss by transitive property, and the money flows.  Voters know you, and they habitually treat you as a continuation of your boss...so if they like your boss, they like you.

            I don't think a sitting VP has ever lost his party's nomination for President in anyone's living memory.  Quayle, of course, wasn't the sitting VP when he ran for POTUS.  But Gore, Bush 41, Humphrey, and Nixon all won their party's nomination for POTUS even if contested.  And Mondale won it even after his boss lost and Mondale wasn't the sitting VP anymore.

            If Biden runs, he instantly has far more stature than everyone else, and especially if there's a divided field against him, it's tough for anyone to get oxygen.

            Biden's mouth is a problem, but that can be coached if he's willing to learn, and it's not fatal within his own party...or in a general election.

            44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

            by DCCyclone on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 08:21:26 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  Come on now, how could you forget how (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              wwmiv, NMLib, DCCyclone

              Congressman Matt Santos upset incumbent vice-president Bob Russell? ;)

              NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

              by sawolf on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 08:34:47 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  That general election made me want to scream... (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                sawolf, KingofSpades, SaoMagnifico

                Seriously... what were the writers smoking when they came up with this map?

                Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                by NMLib on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 10:55:18 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  I don't know, but (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades

                  NC-06/NC-04; -9.12, -8.62; Yellow Dog Democrat

                  by sawolf on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 11:08:57 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                •  Well (2+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  KingofSpades, NMLib

                  It makes a fair bit of sense from a semi-political (same as semi-non-political) understanding. The only absolutely bad from any standpoint state is South Carolina.

                  Santos wins heavily non-Cuban Hispanic states. Both candidates win their home-states. Missouri is historically a state that goes to the winner. Vermont was heavily Republican until the 90s, and Maine is a state that likes to go for maverick-y type candidates at lower levels of the ballot, so why not expropriate that to the Presidency as well (given the point of Vinick's candidacy as being the Republican that everyone can love). Every other state makes sense.

                  23 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); 08/12 PVIs

                  by wwmiv on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 11:14:26 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Disagree (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    SaoMagnifico

                    Iowa made no sense, Vinick was pretty openly hostile towards corn and farm subsidies, plus his profile never would have been particularly strong in the state. Plus, why would Vermont and Maine go to Vinick while New Hampshire went to Santos (especially when Bartlett supposedly had a close call in New Hampshire four years earlier when he had a massive landslide). Plus, I think they made mistakes with both Colorado and Arizona (Colorado I'll concede is arguable, but there's no way the Hispanic vote there would be able to overcome the White vote that would have likely been repelled by Santos).

                    I'd also mention that worse than the map itself, there were a lot of states that were really close that really shouldn't have been in a roughly 50/50 election (West Virginia and Illinois are the ones that immediately come to mind).

                    I wouldn't mind so much, but the whole point of the show was to really scramble the map with the two choices they had. Personally, the map I would have gone with, instead of trying to half-ass it like they did, would be something like this:

                    Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

                    by NMLib on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 12:07:18 AM PST

                    [ Parent ]

                •  That was deliberate (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  sawolf

                  They wanted to have fun, which they can do because it's fiction.  The writers knew exactly what states Democrats can count on winning and losing in real life, and they didn't care.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 09:26:01 AM PST

                  [ Parent ]

  •  Louisville and Lexington Area KY House seats (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    (as I would draw them)
     photo LexingtonArea_zps88b966b5.jpg
    I eliminated HD-91, which the GOP picked up move it to Lexington. This creates five Democratic seats between 55-60% Obama 2008. HD-88 becomes a leftover seat in Jessamine, Fayette and Madison counties. Rep. Rita Smart (D-Richmond) gets a safer seat. Rep. Ryan Quarles (R-Georgetown) loses some of his best precincts to the Frankfort based House seat.

     photo LouisvilleArea_zps27d55791.jpg
    The Jefferson County seats look absolutely awful, but the current seats are not a whole lot better. I manage to shore up Rep. Charles Miller (D-Louisville) by moving his seat upriver. HD-55 is shifted out of its Spencer, Anderson, and Mercer to Spencer and SE Jefferson County. HD-10 is eliminated in Madisonville and moved to a leftover seat in Bullitt, Hardin, and Nelson Counties. Republicans lose one seat in Louisville, as HD-32 is pushed into downtown, as Rep. Julie Raque Adams (R-St. Matthews) may run for a newly created State Senate seat in redistricting. Two black majority seats remain in West Louisville. All Dem held seats are at least 55% Obama (2008). Of course, the most obvious thing is that Nelson County is split to create an open seat, as Rep. David Floyd (R-Bardstown) is placed in a district with Rep. Terry Mills (D-Lebanon), and Floyd is likely to try for an expected new state senate seat in the area.

    "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

    by SouthernINDem on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 02:39:05 PM PST

    •  How many seats do you think (0+ / 0-)

      Democrats could net if they gerrymandered like you did?  2-3?  No need to overthink it, just a guess.  Does this Quarles guy get a winnable seat?  Finally, in your gerrymander thus far, does it satisfy the complaints of the state's SC?

      I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

      by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 02:48:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh, and as for my guess. (0+ / 0-)

        I was just throwing out 2-3 as a conservative, off-the-cuff guess based on what you've shown me so far and not on the state as a whole (I'm sure you found a way to screw over Jill York, but you haven't gotten there yet).  One new Lexington seat, one new Nelson County seat, and a seat somewhere in the west.  If you like this gerrymandered map enough, do a diary.  We don't get many HD diaries.  Also do one on your State Senate map for NY if you want to.

        I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

        by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 02:52:03 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The bad thing is that there is amost nothing (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          that can be done to help us in HD-2 and HD-5. They are pieces in a puzzle that have limited movement. I think the Supreme Court would probably uphold this map, as I think they were disgusted with some of the outrageous things in the House and Senate maps, and hung their arguments on population and county splitting.

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 03:01:40 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

      •  Dems would gain (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        HD-32 (East Louisville), HD-91 (now in Lexington). They could gain HD-4 (Lynn Blecher-Purchase), HD-96 (Jill York-NE Kentucky), HD-50 (Bardstown-Lawrenceburg), HD-62 (Ryan Quarles-Georgetown), and HD-18 (Dwight Butler-Hardinsburg). Districts with little changes won by the GOP in 2010 could be won in HD-2, HD-5, and HD-61 (though it loses Gallatin County and gains 4 precincts in southern Kenton and one in southern Boone- because Rep. Rick Rand (D-Bedford) would have to gain them otherwise). We need a small cushion because will almost certainly lose HD-22 (Stone), HD-39 (Damron), and HD-97 (Collins) when they retire, along with many open seats that would be close.

        "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

        by SouthernINDem on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 02:58:37 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  It actually would not surprise me if in the Senate (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          KingofSpades

          that the Western KY seat that has to be eliminated (either 4 or 6), would be moved to eastern Jefferson County for Rep. Julie Raque Adams (R-St. Matthews), meaning that Sen. Morgan McGarvey (D-Louisville) would either be completely eliminated or paired with Sen. Perry Clark (D-Louisville, and who is also on the target list), but both would serve to the ends of their terms, but their seats would be moved somewhere else. But what may be most interesting is that the GOP wanted Sen. Albert Robinson (R-London) in the Senate about like most people would like a sore toe. He may get a number flip to force him to face a GOP primary. Remember that he only drew 54% in a district where President Obama barely cracked 20%. Also, if the GOP goes ahead with a wrap around seat of Bowling Green, it may take Rep. Martha Jane King (D-Lewisburg) out of the House to make a Senate bid. Her seat would be very competitive.

          "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

          by SouthernINDem on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 03:49:46 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  And could Dems hold King's HD if open? (0+ / 0-)

            I presume you (and they) would shore up both her and John Tilley (freeing him up for a future A-G race).

            I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

            by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 04:37:30 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

            •  I made Tilley's seat (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              KingofSpades

              57/42 Obama. There is virtually no way to shore up King's seat. It pretty much has to be a Todd/Russell seat with either Christian or Warren precincts to balance the population. It came out to 65/33 McCain, but Democrats still do well locally in Russell County. Jody Richards seat is also 57/41 Obama in Bowling Green, which may get a 3rd seat in 2020 given its population growth thanks to its great location.

              "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

              by SouthernINDem on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 05:58:16 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I think Jefferson Davis' birthplace is in her HD. (0+ / 0-)

                As a small aside, I found it slightly unsettling when I saw the Jefferson Davis Memorial obelisk has an uncanny resemblance to the Washington Monument.

                I have found a nearby soda fountain that has Fruitopia! My life is complete.

                by KingofSpades on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 06:26:46 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yes, in rural Todd County (0+ / 0-)

                  Many Dems I hear in Kentucky think if they can hold the House in 2014, that 2016 would be an easy hold with Hillary on the top of the ticket.

                  "So there's a time for silence, and there's a time for waiting your turn. But if you know how you feel, and you so clearly know what you need to say, you'll know it. I don't think you should wait. I think you should speak now." -Taylor Swift

                  by SouthernINDem on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 06:36:27 PM PST

                  [ Parent ]

  •  Off (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, jj32

    topic but I have to say go 49ers!

    But sadly for me I know even less about football than I do about baseball so I won't be able to bandwagon this (shame on me).

    But seriously, you'd have to look back to the 80's to see San Francisco's sports teams on fire like they have been these last couple of years. And even then the Giants never won a World Series (let alone two in three years) while the 49ers were having their glory days in the 80's.

    The Republican party is now an extreme right-wing party that is owned by their billionaire campaign contributors. - Bernie Sanders

    by ehstronghold on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 03:31:07 PM PST

  •  IL-Gov: LISA MADIGAN CONSIDERING RUN (5+ / 0-)

    Link to tweet from Ron Sandack

    To say the least, if Lisa goes through with a run, the DGA can breathe a little easier.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 04:15:19 PM PST

  •  Obrien looks ahead (6+ / 0-)

    controversial house speaker of the New Hampshire House Bill Obrien (R) is looking at running for us senate, governor or us house in 2014.

    http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/...

    For those who don't know, obrien pushed a LOT of controversial legislation and could be considered like an Akin or Mourdock, pre-gaffe: any dem he runs against gets an extra 5 points,with the potential for much more.  

    I doubt he's running, it seems like a headfake, but if he does, it's good for Team Democrat.

    Help, help, I'm in Connecticut!- Foamy the Squirrel.

    by DougTuttle on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 04:26:28 PM PST

  •  Fmr Dem House Candidate Eric Greigo's brother (5+ / 0-)

    and family were the victims in the New Mexico shooting, where the 15 yr old son killed his parents and three siblings.  

    Investigators said the dead included a man, a woman and three grade-school-age children -- two girls and a boy.

    They did not release the names of the victims, saying the process of formally identifying the remains was still going on, but they said the home belongs to Greg and Sarah Griego. Greg Griego was the chaplain for the Albuquerque Fire Department and involved in several prison ministries.

    ....

    Griego's brother, former state Sen. Eric Griego, issued a statement saying, "Our family is grieving this terrible tragedy. We appreciate the prayers and support we have received and request that the media honor our family's privacy during this difficult time."

    "The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self awareness" -Annie Savoy (Bull Durham)

    by Jacoby Jonze on Sun Jan 20, 2013 at 08:51:56 PM PST

  •  first 1/3 of the OR state legislative PVIs done (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, KingofSpades

    true 2008/12 PVIs

    hd1 R+13 (R trend)
    hd2 R+14 (D trend)
    hd3 R+11 (R trend)
    hd4 R+16 (D trend)
    hd5 D+9 (R trend)
    hd6 R+7 (D trend)
    hd7 R+9 (R trend)
    hd8 D+18 (D trend)
    hd9 R+1 (R trend)
    hd10 D+5 (D trend)
    hd11 D+7 (R trend)
    hd12 D+7 (D trend)
    hd13 D+14 (D trend)
    hd14 D+6 (D trend)
    hd15 R+5 (R trend)
    hd16 D+19 (D trend)
    hd17 R+14 (R trend)
    hd18 R+11 (R trend)
    hd19 R+5 (R trend)
    hd20 D+1 (D trend)

    sd1 R+13 (R trend)
    sd2 R+13 (R trend)
    sd3 D+2 (R trend)
    sd4 D+6 (R trend)
    sd5 D+2 (D trend)
    sd6 D+7 (R trend)
    sd7 D+10 (D trend)
    sd8 D+7 (D trend)
    sd9 R+13 (R trend)
    sd10 R+2 (R trend)

    Bolded districts are held by the party that is not favored by PVI.

    In some districts I think the "trend" is as much because of errors I made in assigning precincts in 2004 and 2008 as it is a real trend.  For example, I think in HD11 I overestimated the portion of the district that was in Eugene.  It is the only district that is substantially in Eugene which did not move one or two points more Democratic in 2012.  In HD5 and HD6 I struggled because Jackson County split precincts between the two districts.  In others, like the rural districts (HD9, 17, 18) which tended to trend R, and the urban Eugene (HD8, 13, 14) and Corvallis (HD16) districts, which shifted substantially more Democratic, I think it tended to be real movement.  To be clear, the trend is not comparing 2008 to 2012, but the 2004/08 PVI to the 2008/12 PVI.

    Maps, as you see there these districts start in southwestern Oregon and make their way up to Salem.  The house districts are nested in pairs in the senate districts, in the same order, so HDs 1 and 2 are SD1, HDs 19 and 20 are SD10.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 02:56:22 PM PST

  •  VA Redistricting (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, KingofSpades

    While the second inauguration of President Barack Obama was taking place on the other side of the Potomac River, the Republican-controlled Virginia State Senate voted 20-19 (along party lines with one D state senator absent because he was attending the presidential inauguration) to approve a re-redistricting plan of Virginia's state senate districts. The Virginia House of Delegates is expected to approve the plan on a party-line vote, and then Governor Bob McDonnell is expected to sign the plan into law.

    However, the re-redistricting plan may be unconstitutional, according to this report from Blue Virginia.

    Friend of the Wisconsin Uprising from East Central Illinois! IL-15

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Jan 21, 2013 at 04:30:53 PM PST

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site