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Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) official portrait
Don't get too comfortable, Rick
Whoa. Check out the stink lines coming off of Republican Gov. Rick Scott, according to PPP's first poll of the cycle. His approval rating has sunk to a horrific 33-57 (down from 37-48 in November) and is getting pounded in the head-to-heads versus an array of Democrats:

• 39-53 vs. ex-Gov. Charlie Crist

• 40-47 vs. 2010 nominee Alex Sink

• 39-43 vs. Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio

• 42-44 vs. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz

• 41-37 vs. state Sen. Nan Rich

• 41-37 vs. Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer

Ouch! The important thing is not so much how Scott performs against each potential opponent but rather the fact that he can't clear 42 percent against anyone. Even against unknowns like Dyer and Rich (the only declared candidate so far), Scott's distance to 50%+1 is as long as the Florida coastline. The numbers do still matter, though, and Crist has to find them heartening: His transition to the Democratic Party now seems complete, with an impressive 73-17 favorability rating among Democratic primary voters. That's helping to power him to 49-38 favorables overall, and makes him the only would-be candidate whose name recognition matches Scott's.

It's also why, predictably, Crist leads a hypothetical kitchen-sink primary (not including DWS, who's pretty much said she won't run) by a wide margin:

Crist: 52
Sink: 18
Iorio: 13
Dyer: 4
Rich: 1
Undecided: 12

It looks like the nomination is Crist's for the taking, if he wants it. While he certainly has many flaws as a candidate, Scott's flaws are simply so much greater that Crist winds up stacking up very well. But what if Scott isn't the GOP nominee? Well, we can count our lucky stars that 50 percent of Republican primary voters still want him as their standard bearer, while 40 percent prefer "someone else." Scott won't want to get too comfortable, though: He actually trails ex-Rep. Allen West 38-37 in a fantasy head-to-head (but he leads AG Pam Bondi, whose name rec I'm sure is low, 49-25).

No, I'm not expecting West to issue a primary challenge to Scott, and I don't think Tom Jensen does, either. But the point is that if establishment Republicans decide they need to pitch Scott overboard, they could make it happen, even against his will. Of course, Scott is exceedingly wealthy and could make life hell for his party if, under this scenario, he refuses to go quietly. That's wishing for too much, though. Sure, things can change in two years, but right now, I'd be more than happy for us to take on Rick Scott directly.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:26 AM PST.

Also republished by DKos Florida and Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Governor Voldemort being beaten by Crist (13+ / 0-)

    or Sink in 2014 would be very good indeed.  Hopefully Scott's coattails are so toxic that it makes other Republicans lose too so Dems gain on the state level and on the federal level(always would be nice to gain more House seats for Nancy Pelosi)

    Washington and Colorado said that you've got to legalize it. Hope the DOJ respects that.

    by pistolSO on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:34:58 AM PST

  •  This guy... (10+ / 0-)

    ..has as much business being a governor of a major state as I do being the QB for the New England Patriots.

    One thing you can say about America:  We are not afraid to raise our worst scumbag wastrels to the highest levels of political power.

    Then we act all outraged & incredulous when the scumbag wastrels we elect take the reigns of power & dare remain true to their scumbag wastrel nature.

    I'm worse at what I do best/ And for this gift I feel blessed. - Kurt Cobain

    by wyvern on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:52:20 AM PST

  •  Scott recently purged the FL Environmental Agency (15+ / 0-)

    He replaced 58 talented and experienced environmental enforcement experts with lackeys from the industries that are regulated.

    http://www.miamiherald.com/...

    Is it any wonder the rivers of Florida are filled with toxic slime?

    http://floridawatercoalition.org/

    "Work for something because it is good, not just because it stands a chance to succeed." -- Vaclav Havel

    by greendem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 10:54:50 AM PST

  •  Scott Is A Criminal And A Fraud (7+ / 0-)

    He adopted a dog and than took it back after he won election.  Who knows if the dog was euthanized or not.  That is just a sliver of how horrible this man is.  Denying medicaid expansion is killing thousands of poor people because if they got healthcare and lived they might vote democrat.  The republicans are supposed to care about the unborn, but denying medicaid expansion could be killing hundreds of unborn children.

    "Don't Let Them Catch You With Your Eyes Closed"

    by rssrai on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:04:24 AM PST

  •  Ex* Tampa Mayor, as Iorio is no longer mayor. (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FG, Bob Love, grrr, MichaelNY, dhajra, JBraden

    Scott going down would be amazing.  Democrats need the Governor's office.  We haven't held it in waaay too long.

    One should no more deplore homosexuality than left-handedness. ~Towards a Quaker View of Sex, 1964 (Proud left-handed queer here!) SSP: wmlawman

    by AUBoy2007 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:06:03 AM PST

  •  with this numbers... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden

    should not the Democratic Party check for all the pack?

    FL-Gov 2014
    FL-Sen 2016

    •  That senate race in '16 is asking for too much (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      we have a great shot in getting the governorship, but beating Marco Rubio to be honset is a pipe dream. I like to see Democrats (good Democrats) win. But I also live in reality, and the reality is I don't see Rubio losing.

      I think Nelson's seat in '18 would be a  MUCH better chance at holding, than flipping the other seat, Whether it's with Castor or Garcia.

      Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

      by BKGyptian89 on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 12:56:43 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Im also living in the reality (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        JBraden

        The reality is that Rubio was 48.89% in 2010 and Scott was 48.87% with very few votes of difference between them.

        Even if their approvals go by different way, to have now Crist leading Scott by 14% can be sign of being competitive for the senate.

        I want the Democratic Party check this option. Only that.

        Of course the senate race of 2018 will be easier with a Democratic incumbent (I hope).

      •  In Florida can you run for senate and pres. or v-p (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        simultaneously? if not, who might Republicans run in place of Rubio?

        "They will not collect a ransom in exchange for not crashing the American economy. The full faith and credit of the United States of America is not a bargaining chip."

        by TofG on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:28:22 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  At least he has the support of the Satanists! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, dhajra, Gorette

    Satanists plan rally in support of Florida governor
    http://rt.com/...

    "Work for something because it is good, not just because it stands a chance to succeed." -- Vaclav Havel

    by greendem on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 11:55:39 AM PST

  •  The question at this point (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ccasas, MichaelNY

    might be: will Scott bow out at the behest of the Florida (and national) GOP.

  •  Aw, Bless His Heart (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    quaoar, ccasas, Sue B

    oops, I forgot.  He doesn't have one!

  •  Rick "Pluto" Scott. (0+ / 0-)

    The tent got so big it now stands for nothing.

    by Beelzebud on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:13:25 PM PST

  •  Crist is the Dems' best available candidate. (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mr MadAsHell, Loge, Rolfyboy6, Sue B, MichaelNY

    I hope we don't make the perfect the enemy of the good.

    "Michael Moore, who was filming a movie about corporate welfare called 'Capitalism: A Love Story,' sought and received incentives."

    by Bush Bites on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:13:55 PM PST

  •  A few poll results were omitted (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bush Bites, bleeding blue, davidkc

    36-60 vs. Charles Manson
    42-53 vs. Bernie Madoff
    44-51 vs. Ayman al-Zawahiri

  •  You'd rather face Scott directly... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden

    ... than Allan West?  Give me West eight days of the week.

  •  It's not at all impossible that by 2014 Fla., Pa., (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Ohio, Virginia, and perhaps Michigan could all have Democratic governors. And at least ohio and Pa. could have them into 2022---important for redistricting.

    I'm not nearly so positive about Wisconsin.

    "They will not collect a ransom in exchange for not crashing the American economy. The full faith and credit of the United States of America is not a bargaining chip."

    by TofG on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:24:53 PM PST

  •  Allen West for FL Guv? (0+ / 0-)

    You have gotz to be shitting me!  I know that Florida has a unique kind of crazy, but really?

    "We will never have the elite, smart people on our side."~Little Ricky Santorum

    by Dahankster on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:35:58 PM PST

    •  I'm sure West has a list of at least 57 card (0+ / 0-)

      carrying communists in the Florida legislature. Perhaps he'll see it as his calling to run for governor. (Pizza to be delivered at his campaign events courtesy of Papa John's and Godfather's).

      "They will not collect a ransom in exchange for not crashing the American economy. The full faith and credit of the United States of America is not a bargaining chip."

      by TofG on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:39:42 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  The Party can't pitch Scott (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Loge

    It would be an open admission of the failure of their policies. Scott will be their candidate.

    "You can die for Freedom, you just can't exercise it"

    by shmuelman on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:41:31 PM PST

  •  Scott and his cronies (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden

    Scott and his cronies have made Florida a hell hole.  May he rot in hell.  

    I also have no love for Crist. When it was time for him to stand for something, he spent his time kissing the ass of whoever could do the most good for his political career.  

    He's been "as conservative as they come" and now he's a Democrat.  Sickening.  

    As for Alan West as governor, Florida needs him.  It'll put the last nail in the coffin of what Florida used to be.  The next boom and I'm out of this state.  

  •  i'm gonna send this to my b-i-l in miami (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden

    he's always asking me if i think rick will be reelected.
    (since i talk politics all the time, my family assumes i know everything)

    he loathes him and worries like crazy that he'll be reelected.
    i reminded him that despite the madness and the rw noise that often drowns out everyone else (especially in states like fla) reasonable folks tend to win the day... nov 12 showed that pretty clearly.

    regardless, he'll jump for joy at this news :-)

    every adult is responsible for every child

    by ridemybike on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:43:05 PM PST

  •  . (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ccasas

    Terminator Skull

    "Til you're so fucking crazy you can't follow their rules" John Lennon - Working Class Hero

    by Horace Boothroyd III on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 04:43:26 PM PST

  •  He's like a cat (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JBraden

    trying to cover up his shit on a tile floor. He just came out today and said he had nothing to do with the anti-voter laws. Nope, not old Rick. He just advocated for them and passed them when people were begging him to veto them. He also could have extended early voting before the election, but refused to. But it's not his fault.I hope people remember this next election. Why are people like this elected in the first place. It blows my mind.

  •  It bothers me ... a lot ... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Rolfyboy6

    that "Chain Gang Charlie" Crist, who hasn't abandoned his Republican views on anything, is considered the best choice for the Democratic Party in Florida. It just shows that most of the people who call themselves "Democrats" in this state are really just unreconstructed Dixiecrats. Real Democrats will not control anything in this state for a very, very, very long time - and by then, it will be too late for Florida to recover anything it has already lost and will continue to lose as Republicans (including the ones who call themselves Democrats) continue to trash my home state. Given the choice between Crist or Scott, I would have to vote for Crist - benign neglect of the state's needs being better, after all, than the malign destruction visited upon us by Gov. Scott. But I would be very depressed about casting that vote. Yes, Crist switched to the Democratic Party. But he is not, in any way that really matters, a Democrat. As a lifelong resident of this beautiful state, which gets less beautiful and less livable by the day, it makes me weep.

    I vote we run Rick Scott out of Florida on a high-speed rail.

    by ObamOcala on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 05:13:38 PM PST

    •  Florida is rapidly becoming bluer (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Rolfyboy6

      At the federal level, Alan Grayson, Patrick Murphy and Joe Garcia defeated incumbent representatives and Lois Frankel was victorious in a nascent district.

      Hispanics are flowing into the I-4 corridor, which includes Orlando. A large percentage of these immigrants are Puerto Ricans, who are U.S. citizens who can vote right now.

      Republican Daniel Webster in District 10 won solely 51.8% of the votes in the corridor in 2012. With vigorous efforts to register Hispanics between now and 2014 and an commitment to get them to the polls on election day, Webster can be defeated as can Vern Buchanan of District 16 (Sarasota), who won 53.6% of the vote in 2012. Even Steve Southerland of District 2 (Tallahassee) can be defeated in 2014. He won 52.7% of the vote in 2012.

      State office holders in corresponding areas can also be defeated.

  •  This is depressing (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Rolfyboy6

    Talk about pulling the nation to the right. Are we supposed to be happy that a Republican is polling ahead of another Republican?!?! WTF?

  •  Scott's hiring of Tony Bennett will seal his fate (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Gorette

    What is the protocol for replacing a Florida education commissioner? Is it an executive apptointment? After Scott hired the same guy who's idea of a great day is to "close a public school," Florida voters are gonna do whatever they can to get rid of this ALEC tool.

    Educational experience based on non-consensual behaviorism is authoritarian mind control.

    by semioticjim on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 05:20:15 PM PST

  •  He's got to face a primary challenge, doesn't he? (0+ / 0-)

    Not that I think it would be successfull (Scott still has the support of the GOP base and his money at his disposal), but the GOP has to know that if Scott is their nominee, they are giving the governorship to the Democrats on a silver platter. It stands to reason they'll try something to force him out of the race.

    The only consolation Scott has is that he might not be the GOP governor in the worst shape for 2014, as LePage, Corbett, Snyder, etc. are all making their play for electoral oblivion.

    •  Scott has the money to neuter a primary challenge (0+ / 0-)

      so I am not sure that he would lose a primary challenge.  

      President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

      by Drdemocrat on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 05:26:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  I agree and said so, I don't think he'd lose... (0+ / 0-)

        ...but you think the GOP would at least try it. They can't just surrender the Florida governorship without a fight, although I think that if Crist is the Dem nominee, it won't even be a fight, just a coronation.

  •  My prediction it is Crist vs Scott and Crist wins (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    davidkc

    in 2014.  We are going to need a Democratic governor in Florida for 2016 is going to be a lot tougher presidential election because of all the electoral vote rigging that the Republicans will try and do in the mid-west.

    Florida and Colorado will be key.

    President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

    by Drdemocrat on Wed Jan 16, 2013 at 05:28:30 PM PST

  •  I wish we had a viable alternative to Crist (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    But if he's the best candidate to get rid of Scott, I'm 100% behind him. I'd prefer Crist to Sink, who rank a horrible campaign against Scott the first time around. As the diarist says, Crist has MANY flaws, and if he jumped into the campaign voters would be reminded of those flaws and his approval numbers would certainly go down. I'm still half-expecting Scott to not run for re-election, opening the door for Bondi, who would be a formidable candidate, loathsome as she is.

  •  I'd like to see a head-to-head of (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sue B

    Voldem--I mean Scott--vs "Herpes,"  "Palmetto Bugs," "No-see-ums," and "BP."

    He might actually beat BP.  In Florida.  But I think it might be close.  The rest would be shoo-ins down here.

    I've said this before, and I'll say it again, I do sincerely wish the Honorable Allen West would consider running in a primary against Gov. Scott.  I cannot think of a better way to spend big republican donors' money in Florida than on a ... robust ... battle between Gov. Scott and the Honorable Allen West.

    As for the Dem field...  Well...  I don't particularly like Charlie Crist, being a finger-to-the-wind  "I'm whatever seems most beneficial to my own career at this particular moment in time" sort of politician, but at least he's only trying to look out for his own self-interests.  He's not actively trying to screw everyone else.  Baby steps.

  •  Watch for Iorio and Bondi (0+ / 0-)

    I'm hoping for a strong showing from Pam Iorio next year. She was a great mayor for Tampa and still has very strong numbers on both sides of Tampa Bay. As for Bondi her name recognition may be stronger than the author thinks at least in the area of Tampa/St. Pete. What will be key for both is if they can translate their local numbers into statewide momentum. In any case this St. Pete dweller will breathe a big sigh of relief when Scott gets the heave-ho.

  •  Are there (0+ / 0-)

    any 'prospects' (baseball term) in Florida? 30-40 year old pols who could have U.S. Sen/Gov ambition?

  •  Carpetbagger...snake oil (0+ / 0-)

    Why doesn't Medicare fraud make people think that  maybe they're voting against themselves by supporting this carpetbagger.

  •  I am doing my part to have him gone (0+ / 0-)

    9 civil suits I read against Scott

    I post everything along with SemDem doing the same
    about Scott which is always bad

    I sent the news out to the Christians about the satanists and that was a biggie.

    I have not talked to one conservative or anyone who is voting Scott.  I really bring his sorry bald head into the front of any discussion with my Floridian friends.  

    I start almost every conversation with , " That idiot Scott is ruining our lives, who voted for him".  Most say. " I don't know but it won't happen again".  Total strangers I say this to.

    I may put out another GOTV in 2014 as I did against GWB in 04....A narration of truths about Scott.   I have learned a lot about distribution since the last CD.

    We the People have to make a difference and the Change.....Just do it ! Be part of helping us build a veteran community online. United Veterans of America

    by Vetwife on Fri Jan 18, 2013 at 12:10:07 PM PST

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